My biggest thing with seeing the Fighter Pass as all 3rd parties, is that it makes the most sense to do that if the goal is to make the game accessible to more fans. Adding Nintendo characters might interest people in their respective games, but it doesn’t draw as many folks people to Smash itself.
It’s not a leap to think a lot of Pokémon fans and Fire Emblem fans own Smash already. It’s also not a stretch when you think why: Fire Emblem and Pokémon are among the franchises with the most content in Smash as a whole. Extensive music selections, a selection of playable characters, different stages...
Compare that to a series with
nothing currently in Smash. There’s more potential, more to differentiate from Nintendo series, and more fans to bring in.
One thing I believe fans overlooked is with Reggie’s comments in an IGN interview about Joker, in which he said:
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To me, when I think about this, why think about video games as a total perspective unless the fighters were coming from franchises that weren’t in Smash already? It’s also noted in that article that Sakurai is looking for characters/series that are “unique, different”. 3rd parties, and genres that aren’t expected in a fighting game, fit that nicely.
We could get a 1st party pick. But if they’re meant to be revealed to market a game in a particular time (sorta like Corrin, whose game was our prior to reveal in Japan, but not in the US), that would be easily missed for Three Houses, as it comes out next Friday, while both Fighter 2 and 3 need to be released.
The only three 1st parties I could see getting a character are Three Houses, Sword and Shield, or Astral Chain. However, I don’t expect it to happen.
My final point is simply that 1st party franchises, unless they are completely new, don’t expand the crossover to the extent that an entirely new 3rd party does, especially when its being added on top of content we already have from the same series.