Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[Megadoomer]

Keen has been around much longer, he predates Doom and even Wolfenstein 3D. It's still a pretty niche series, but it was the series that gave Id Software their first clear success on the MS-DOS operating system, paving the way for Wolfenstein, Doom, and Quake. Rage, that's better.

That's fair; I just figured that while a case could be made for either Doom or Skyrim to make it into Smash if Bethesda got a character, Commander Keen seems like a long-shot. I didn't take his history into account.

I just figure that Atelier isn't exactly well-known, even compared to series like Bayonetta (which only had two games at the time that it was included in Smash, though they stood out for being among the best in the genre), Persona (which seemed fairly niche until Persona 4 or 5 - correct me if I'm wrong here), or Banjo-Kazooie (which hadn't had a game in over a decade when it got into Smash, and hadn't had a good game in roughly two decades at that time).

Ninja Gaiden's a lot like Mega Man or Castlevania, in that it's a huge franchise from the NES days, and even if it hasn't had many games recently, it seems incredibly easy to justify including it.

By contrast, I'm not sure how many people were aware of Atelier's existence before this rumour started - I was only vaguely aware of it because the developers were also making a game based on the anime/manga Fairy Tail, and I had looked those developers up to see what else they had worked on. (I didn't recognize anything)

EDIT: admittedly, my own experiences aren't much to go on, but it's not like it's a series that comes up in conversation online all that often, or is lauded as one of the best RPGs out there.

 

[Shroob]

I'm a bit more cynical when it comes to the DLC.

When I see people say "Fan demand" in regards to it, well first off, aside from Banjo and a lesser extent Byleth, what fan demand in pass 1? No one even considered Terry until the leak, Joker was a "Never happening" pick according to a lot of folk, and were it not for Vergeben, I seriously doubt people would have even considered Dragon Quest as a whole.


When I hear "Nintendo picked the DLC", while I do think there'll be some fan picks, like Banjo, the thing I have to remember is:


Nintendo's a business, and Smash is, at the end of the day, both a video game and a playable advertisement. A company getting a character in Smash, while some can view it as a "Hall of fame" or "legacy" kind of deal, I'd wager that Nintendo and most businesses who get their character included see it more as advertising.

Is it a bit of a soulless outlook? Perhaps, but we already know that Nintendo uses Smash to advertise their own games, why is it soo hard to believe that 3rd party games would be any different? Because they're 'guests'? They're guests that Nintendo paid for probably.


I don't really buy the leak, but it wouldn't shock me if it happened.

 

[Teeb147]

I imagine when it comes to Koei, it also depends on what both they and Nintendo want.

Ryu Hayabusa is their most known character and Ninja Gaiden has a huge legacy. It's their oldest franchise and Ninja Gaiden has several different audiences to it: The Retro gamers who played the original on SNES and the Action fans who like the more modern games. Hayabusa is the most obvious and likely choice.


But there's also taking into account the possibility Koei may want to ask Nintendo to put a character from their lesser known franchises like Atelier in there. Atelier is long running(I want to say maybe second longest running Koei franchise? Can someone correct me there) since it's been around since 1997. Atelier helped popularize some modern mechanics in JRPGs. And I imagine Koei knows how much of a boost it'd give the franchise if they threw in someone like Reisalin over Hayabusa, since most franchises that get a rep in Smash are proven to get a boost in interest and sales.

So it's a matter of Legacy vs Boosting interest in a lesser known property. It ultimately depends here. I imagine legacy choices may win out but you never know.

Well I imagine that it's more worth it to the company to try to boost sales then just get an old character.
Ninja gaiden is a good series tho, they should make more games.

 

[Ramen Tengoku]

I was saying that as one that has become more popular recently, and one that has been popular for decades.

Eh, not really a good comparison

Smash ain't a "wait your turn" sorta deal. Each franchise has it's own merit regardless of when it first started or first became big. If that were the case, we probably would've gotten SMT before Persona.

In fact, I can actually wager a strong case for somebody like Dragonborn over Doomguy, or at the very least, on very equal footing. Skyrim on it's own can be argued as a game that defined a whole decade, receiving dozens of GOTY nominations, a toddload of ports to several and I mean several consoles, and popularizing open worlds in video games.

 

[ZelDan]

Like I said in my previous Atelier-related post, I'm not going to say the series getting into Smash is impossible, and I won't even say it "isn't deserving." (I kind of stopped caring about "deservingness" a while ago and don't think it's really a thing or factor)

At the very least I don't think it's really that farfetched to think the the Atelier series has alot going against it or that other franchises have much more going for it.

 

[RileyXY1]

Eh, not really a good comparison

Smash ain't a "wait your turn" sorta deal. Each franchise has it's own merit regardless of when it first started/became big. If that were the case, we probably would've gotten SMT before Persona.

In fact, I can actually wager a strong case for somebody like Dragonborn over Doomguy. Skyrim on it's own can be argued as a game that defined a whole decade, receiving dozens of GOTY nominations, a Toddload of ports to several, and I mean several consoles, and popularizing open worlds in video games.

Same for Doom. That game was on more PCs than Windows 95, popularized FPSes (to the point that FPSes were actually called "Doom clones" back in the day), and helped create Valve Software, who created Half-Life, Portal, and STEAM, among other projects.

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

I'd guess Skyrim over Doom if just because I can imagine Sakurai seeing more moveset potential with the Dragonborn than he can the Doom Slayer.

 

[Aetheri]

But still, neither compare to Skyrim, which was not only a massive success, it was also ported to every system imaginable and was even the very first third-party title announced for the Switch.

Still waiting for my Gameboy color Skyrim port, Todd!!!

 

[RileyXY1]

I'd guess Skyrim over Doom if just because I can imagine Sakurai seeing more moveset potential with the Dragonborn than he can the Doom Slayer.

That's debatable.

 

[TheShiningAbsol]

I honestly always envisioned Skyrim getting representation before Doom solely because of the its popularity in Japan compared to Doom. Never thought Fallout would beat them both.

 

[N3ON]

Atelier will fade back into the crowd once the half-life of this leak is over, like Danganronpa, Granblue, Bravely, and many others before it.

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

I'm neutral on Atelier in Smash but PLEASE bro
View attachment 278734
The ****ing outtake video has twice as many views as the best selling Atelier has sales, if the series being well alive mattered, we wouldn't have gotten Banjo, not to mention Ninja Gaiden's also in Nioh last I checked

Gwen, I acknowledge the point you're trying to make, but watching a 6 minute and 38 second video isn't even remotely analogous to purchasing a full priced, 40+ hour video game.

If anything, this more shows how good Angry Video Game Nerd's videos are (because this also factors in re-watches), which I would 100% agree with you on. To be honest I'd say Scott the Woz's new video tried way to hard to be like AVGN, and just made me miss his Mario 3 video with Super Mecha Death Christ 2000 B.C. Version 4.0 Beta.

Being an ongoing series doesn't mean more people know it. Ninja Gaiden hasn't gotten a game in half a decade, and yet it's still better known because it put out games that are outright classics and amongst the best in their genres. If Pac-Man never had any videogames ever again, he'd still be one of the most iconic and well-known characters in gaming.

I don't think you understood my point. I didn't say that Atelier was a better known series in virtue of it being ongoing.

I said it'd be a pragmatic business decision for Koei and Nintendo to include Atelier over Ninja Gaiden because it'd be a promotional boost to an ongoing series on the brink of a major breakthrough.

Again, call it shilling or whatever you want, but at the end of the day these are companies we're discussing. They care about business just as much as concepts like legacy, icon status, or recognizability, as much as we as a community refuse to acknowledge this fact.

Ninja Gaiden is a franchise dating back since the NES days and has achieved both a retro and a modern fanbase thanks to the hack and slash action games. It is most definitely more well known than Atelier among the gaming industry. Even among the Smash fanbase that loves to overhype niche characters, Ninja Gaiden saw more talk than Atelier ever did. Hell we even discussed Dynasty Warriors and Kasumi from DOA before anyone mentioned Atelier thanks to the leak.

Also just because Ninja Gaiden stopped getting games doesn't mean Ryu as a character is inactive. Koei Tecmo loves putting him in their games. He appears in the DOA games, he appeared as a secret boss in Nioh, and hell he even appeared in Warriors Orochi 4 Ultimate last year.



I'm low key getting tired of seeing this argument used every time to overrate the chances of a niche character. Banjo's circumstances are much more different thanks to him having a huge amount of fan requests and with Phil Spencer personally backing them up. Ryza doesn't have fan popularity and unless I'm mistaken I don't see anyone from Koei Tecmo calling for her to get in.

I'll concede to your first point. Ryu has certainly appeared in a lot of Koei Tecmo games, and is a pseudo-mascot for the company. He has real chances for Smash because of that and his status as a historic, iconic character.

In regards to Banjo's circumstances, it does show a precedent for a company pushing a less popular character for inclusion into Smash. While Banjo certainly is a special case given Phil Spencer's multiple on-the-record statements, and shouldn't be taken as an establishment of the rule, I think it could merit mention because of the precedent it sets.

Look y'all, I'm not saying Atelier is a shoe in or even likely. I'm just saying it's possible.

I don't get what's up with all the resentment towards a less discussed franchise. It's like you'd all rather pretend it just doesn't exist to discuss the same series for the umpteenth time.

 

[Shroob]

Atelier will fade back into the crowd once the half-life of this leak is over, like Danganronpa, Granblue, Bravely, and many others before it.

But perhaps....

The right leak

In the wrong place

Can make all the difference in the world

 

[Ramen Tengoku]

Atelier will fade back into the crowd once the half-life of this leak is over, like Danganronpa, Granblue, Bravely, and many others before it.

Y'all still sleeping on Bravely hard

 

[BernkastelWitch]

Honestly if there is a silver lining with this leak, it brought Atelier up to the Smash crowd. I do enjoy it whenever series not commonly discussed in Smash fandom gets brought up as a possibility because it adds more variety and spice to discussion. When those supposed leaks with Reimu and Monokuma got brought up a while ago, I actually got happy we weren't just talking about the usual Waluigi, Geno, Doom Guy, Sora, etc etc talk and happy people noticed Touhou and Danganronpa.


I do feel like we may get one of these less discussed/niche characters into Smash. It can't be nothing but commonly discussed names and sometimes the most interesting characters are ones that aren't always discussed.

 

[Gribbo]

From a historic standpoint? I'm certainly inclined to agree. From a current relevance standpoint? Not in the slightest.

Ninja Gaiden's last release was a critical and commercial flop in 2014. It's been radio silence since then.

You can't deny the fact that while Atelier has never performed the best, at least it's still going as a series.

Smash could be just the push the series needs to truly break out, much like one of the prominent reasons for Hero's inclusion. While it certainly goes against popular fan consensus, the fact is that it'd be a pragmatic business decision to include Atelier over Ninja Gaiden.

Call it shilling or whatever, but Nintendo is a company with corporate interests; of course they're going to cater to those first. They don't personally serve any of us.

Hard disagree on most of this. For one thing, you could use that same line of logic to say that Hyperdimension Neptunia is more iconic than Frogger because "at least it's still getting new releases". Just because it's getting new games doesn't mean it's more famous. And while Smash could be "the push it needs", there's no reason for Nintendo to do that from a business perspective. What would Nintendo get out of promoting a really niche series that they don't own or have any exclusivity to?

A while ago I talked about how third party characters are a risk-versus-reward system from a marketing standpoint. Basically if you're paying extra to use a character they better be worth it. Characters like Sonic and Cloud are big pulls for a lot of people. And yes, Hero is too, being from one of the iconic JRPGs ever. Atelier, though? There's a lot of games, but they're really not that popular at all.

 

[TwiceEXE]

I don't get what's up with all the resentment towards a less discussed franchise. It's like you'd all rather pretend it just doesn't exist to discuss the same series for the umpteenth time.

Niche characters are not part of discussion. You can talk about Crash, Dante, and... *checks notes* the Player 4 character from Kirby or a side character from a Mario spin-off?

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

Atelier will fade back into the crowd once the half-life of this leak is over, like Danganronpa, Granblue, Bravely, and many others before it.

Bravely essay coming soontm btw.

I think it's unfortunate that such series are often passed up in discussion due to a lack of experience and knowledge. I understand that people might not have the methods or money to get into such franchises, but I think it's still worth bringing them up as possible picks.

 

[Teeb147]

Honestly if there is a silver lining with this leak, it brought Atelier up to the Smash crowd. I do enjoy it whenever series not commonly discussed in Smash fandom gets brought up as a possibility because it adds more variety and spice to discussion. When those supposed leaks with Reimu and Monokuma got brought up a while ago, I actually got happy we weren't just talking about the usual Waluigi, Geno, Doom Guy, Sora, etc etc talk and happy people noticed Touhou and Danganronpa.


I do feel like we may get one of these less discussed/niche characters into Smash. It can't be nothing but commonly discussed names and sometimes the most interesting characters are ones that aren't always discussed.

Yeah definitely interesting to think about. I also think an alchemy system could be interesting, but obviously the legacy of a character is alwyas part of the talk around, and she doesnt really have that going. Could still happen tho.

 

[GoodGrief741]

I don't think you understood my point. I didn't say that Atelier was a better known series in virtue of it being ongoing.

I said it'd be a pragmatic business decision for Koei and Nintendo to include Atelier over Ninja Gaiden because it'd be a promotional boost to an ongoing series on the brink of a major breakthrough.

Again, call it shilling or whatever you want, but at the end of the day these are companies we're discussing. They care about business just as much as concepts like legacy, icon status, or recognizability, as much as we as a community refuse to acknowledge this fact.

Nah pretty sure you said Atelier is better known than Ninja Gaiden. Right here:

And Ninja Gaiden is more known than Atelier?
[citation needed]

Could Atelier have a character? Sure. But it's not better known than Ninja Gaiden by a longshot.

Also I wouldn't call selling 450k units "being on the brink of a major breakthrough".

 

[SpectreJordan]

You're really telling me Bayonetta had significant impact on gaming at the time of her addition? Other than her series being a cult classic (like Atelier) and her series having been saved by Nintendo, she had very little going for her. I remember people were very keen to point this out when she was revealed as the Ballot winner over a bunch of other seemingly more popular characters.

Miss me with this revisionist history BS.

The points I made for Bayonetta all happened before she got into Smash. She has two highly reviewed games with one of them being a major GOTY nominee. The Bayo games are often cited as some of the best in the Character Action genre.

I don’t see Atelier topping JRPG lists & the average reviews seem to be in the 70s.

Persona was kind of the same. It had some cool stuff, but nothing critical to gaming.
The atelier series does have alchemy, item creation, but it's something you can find in other games.

Persona 5 is seen as one of the best games of this gen & one of the best JRPGs of all-time. Persona 3 & 4 are also beloved & seen as some of the best JRPGs ever.

Even if I think that leak is fake and am big into Ninja Gaiden, anyone that takes a heavily manipulated and raided site like that (the "lets review bomb Breath of The Wild and every single switch and 3ds games we hear about because its not on ps4" - the site) seriously to any sort of argument, even if in a tangential way is not worth the time of the day, its as bad as like using ninsoup or one of these clickbait sites that google loves to promote as a news source.

I was talking about the critical reviews, not the fan reviews. You can’t review bomb the critic reviews. The critics score is perfectly fine to use as an example of how well received the Bayonetta games are.

 

[RileyXY1]

Nah pretty sure you said Atelier is better known than Ninja Gaiden. Right here:

Could Atelier have a character? Sure. But it's not better known than Ninja Gaiden by a longshot.

Also I wouldn't call selling 450k units "being on the brink of a major breakthrough".

Yeah. It's not a big series if it never sells more than a million copies.

 

[Teeb147]

Persona 5 is seen as one of the best games of this gen & one of the best JRPGs of all-time. Persona 3 & 4 are also beloved & seen as some of the best JRPGs ever.

I don't agree with that But yeah sure some people like it. I'm a jrpg fan, and I like persona, but i dont think it's that great. I get bored of the elements system fairly quickly.

 

[SilentSentinel]

There's a difference between considering an overlooked series, and simply trying too hard.

 

[ZenythSmash]

I keep saying this over and over, but I think the people who keep saying how Ultimate didn't add a "retro rep" like the previous games need to realize that Ice Climbers were the only characters added for that specific purpose.

: A legimately popular character request back in the day, per admitted by Sakurai himself. Essentially Brawl's equivalent to K. Rool and Banjo, fan favorites that happened to be old and forgotten.
: Sakurai has referred to these not as "retro reps", but "surprise characters". Piranha Plant is intended to be Ultimate's equivalent.
: The one true "retro rep" in Smash. Initially added in because Sakurai wanted a one-off NES character in Smash, and they beat out the likes of Bubbles and Urban Champion with their duo fighter gimmick.

Like really the fact that we got Piranha Plant in this game pretty much shows the notion of the "retro character" is completely null outside of just the Ice Climbers. Pit, Game & Watch, Duck Hunt and R.O.B may be old, but they were included for other reasons outside of just "oh i need an old character in this game ahuh" as the ICs were.

Man, i thought nobody will EVER point all this out. Getting sick and tired of this "retro rep" false quota:

They even referred K.Rool a retrograde character on the title screen banner when his costume was released

Sooo doesn't that just mean any pre-6th generation addition is a retro representitive? Lol

 

[Teeb147]

Nah pretty sure you said Atelier is better known than Ninja Gaiden. Right here:

Could Atelier have a character? Sure. But it's not better known than Ninja Gaiden by a longshot.

Also I wouldn't call selling 450k units "being on the brink of a major breakthrough".

It's the best selling game in the series by a decent amount, and it's only been out since last september, so it's not bad. Pretty good for the series. Not comparable to big names tho obviously.

 

[SpectreJordan]

I don't agree with that But yeah sure some people like it. I'm a jrpg fan, and I like persona, but i dont think it's that great. I get bored of the elements system fairly quickly.

Yeah, that’s totally fine; everyone’s individual opinions are different & fair!

I was using the general consensus though. If you look around the general gaming & JRPG communities you’ll see mass praise for those games, particularly Persona 5.

 

[Wunderwaft]

In Ryza's defense the Atelier series is active with a long ass history dating to the 90s that I wasn't aware of until last year. It's just that she's stacked up against strong competition from her own company. It's the same reason why I'm suspicious about Bravely's outlook, there are bigger and meaner fishes in the same pond.

 

[Nesysli]

I don't believe the 4chan post at all but if there is any hint of truth in it; I really hope Atelier is just cover for Hayabusa's inclusion. Kinda like how Verge & others were saying "Minecraft/Microsoft content" which turned out to be Banjo.

 

[ZenythSmash]

Personally also I’d say Final Fantasy II is worse than Dirge of Cerberus (which isn’t even a “traditional” FF game). Great setting, story, music, characters, all RUINED by an utterly broken battle system and the fact EVERY dungeon has false treasure room fake outs that trap you in battle after battle just to get out

fr. Bows NEVER work, and you can spam insta kill spells to even kill BOSSES. no strategy at all

It's like a really broke SaGa game despite being the very landmark for it.
DoC looked like a interesting gameplay experiement at least, but i haven't played it myself yet, so can't say much about it.

 

[Aetheri]

Man, i thought nobody will EVER point all this out. Getting sick and tired of this "retro rep" false quota:
View attachment 278739
They even referred K.Rool a retrograde character on the title screen banner when his costume was released
View attachment 278740View attachment 278741
Sooo doesn't that just mean any pre-6th generation addition is a retro representitive? Lol

Do people not realize we already got our retro rep in this game?

 

[Ramen Tengoku]

Do people not realize we already got our retro rep in this game?

It took me a couple seconds before I got the joke, and I was about to throw out the old snake gif lol

 

[Diddy Kong]

I'm a bit more cynical when it comes to the DLC.

When I see people say "Fan demand" in regards to it, well first off, aside from Banjo and a lesser extent Byleth, what fan demand in pass 1? No one even considered Terry until the leak, Joker was a "Never happening" pick according to a lot of folk, and were it not for Vergeben, I seriously doubt people would have even considered Dragon Quest as a whole.


When I hear "Nintendo picked the DLC", while I do think there'll be some fan picks, like Banjo, the thing I have to remember is:


Nintendo's a business, and Smash is, at the end of the day, both a video game and a playable advertisement. A company getting a character in Smash, while some can view it as a "Hall of fame" or "legacy" kind of deal, I'd wager that Nintendo and most businesses who get their character included see it more as advertising.

Is it a bit of a soulless outlook? Perhaps, but we already know that Nintendo uses Smash to advertise their own games, why is it soo hard to believe that 3rd party games would be any different? Because they're 'guests'? They're guests that Nintendo paid for probably.


I don't really buy the leak, but it wouldn't shock me if it happened.

... What is the leak even?

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Look y'all, I'm not saying Atelier is a shoe in or even likely. I'm just saying it's possible.

I don't get what's up with all the resentment towards a less discussed franchise. It's like you'd all rather pretend it just doesn't exist to discuss the same series for the umpteenth time.

Not that I've been a part of the discussion, but just looking at the thread I think it went off rails because of this:

And Ninja Gaiden is more known than Atelier?

Atelier is absolutely worth discussing, but underdog picks should be treated as such, making it out to be more than it is isn't a good premise for discussion. I actually agree that we should keep our eyes on outsider franchises such as Atelier (whether people like it or not), but if it were to make it, it would have nothing to do with it being well known, because it really isn't, and comparing it to a perceived favorite such as Ninja Gaiden does it no favors.

 

[Shroob]

... What is the leak even?

4chan leak saying the next character is Ryza from the Alterier series, a series from Koei Techmo, the same people that make Ninja Gaiden or Dynasty Warriors.


The only thing it has going for it is that, iirc, shortly after it was posted, a sequel for Alterier Ryza was leaked via the Australian ESRB, which the leak covered.



I don't 'buy' it, but like everything, I'm willing to give it a benefit of the doubt, even if I don't believe it.

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

Hard disagree on most of this. For one thing, you could use that same line of logic to say that Hyperdimension Neptunia is more iconic than Frogger because "at least it's still getting new releases". Just because it's getting new games doesn't mean it's more famous. And while Smash could be "the push it needs", there's no reason for Nintendo to do that from a business perspective. What would Nintendo get out of promoting a really niche series that they don't own or have any exclusivity to?

A strengthened relationship with an incredibly close business partner?

Corporate synergy is a very real concept and I'd say it very much applies in discussions about what characters are possible to get into Smash.

Nah pretty sure you said Atelier is better known than Ninja Gaiden. Right here:

Could Atelier have a character? Sure. But it's not better known than Ninja Gaiden by a longshot.

Also I wouldn't call selling 450k units "being on the brink of a major breakthrough".

That first point's fair, but I'd say borders on semantics. I was simply questioning whether one is more known the other, as I think it's a valid question outside of our little bubble here. I made no definite statements as to that effect.

I apologize if I offended anyone with a question.

Also, while you wouldn't call Ryza's sales "being on the brink of a major breakthrough," it's very much considered a turning point in the series by Gust, and Koei Tecmo by association. It's possible they could decide to capitalize on this and make a gambit to increase the series' notoriety. It's another case of subjective opinion not necessarily reflecting corporate opinion.

 

[Shroob]

Can I just ask


Why is it seemingly always the Australian ESRB now that leaks ****?


First Crash 4, now Ryza 2.

 

[SKX31]

Yeah. It's not a big series if it never sells more than a million copies.

That argument doesn't account for free to play / shareware / piracy: SNK's arcade machines and games were widely pirated, a lot of Doom's early success rested on shareware and piracy - piracy reduced Doom's sales to "only" 100K during the first year*, and the original Dissidia was pirated over 5 million times.

*(Especially in places like Sweden, where I'm from - and Doom was huge here partly because of shareware / piracy.)

Can I just ask


Why is it seemingly always the Australian ESRB now that leaks ****?


First Crash 4, now Ryza 2.

IIRC it was the Taiwanese / Hong Kong ESRB (GSRR) who leaked Crash 4.

 

[SharkLord]

Ninja Gaiden and Warriors are definitely more well-known that Atelier, but Atelier's still got a shot. It's a long-runner with a recent release that did pretty well, and KT may want to push it further while the success still fresh. On the other hand, Ryu Hayabusa is a character that keeps popping up in KT games and hails from a old classic from the NES era. And we might get a Warriors rep instead of either Ryu or Ryza; Nothing says Nintendo and Sakurai can't pursue Lu Bu as the next fighter, contrary to what the game tells you.

But in the end, I'm just glad we got something to talk about.

 

[Animegamingnerd]

Can I just ask


Why is it seemingly always the Australian ESRB now that leaks ****?


First Crash 4, now Ryza 2.

They got nothing on the Korean rating board leaks, just a quick google search and that will show you how often we found out about games and ports due to them.