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Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

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Shroob

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Ninja Gaiden and Warriors are definitely more well-known that Atelier, but Atelier's still got a shot. It's a long-runner with a recent release that did pretty well, and KT may want to push it further while the success still fresh. On the other hand, Ryu Hayabusa is a character that keeps popping up in KT games and hails from a old classic from the NES era. And we might get a Warriors rep instead of either Ryu or Ryza; Nothing says Nintendo and Sakurai can't pursue Lu Bu as the next fighter, contrary to what the game tells you.

But in the end, I'm just glad we got something to talk about.
It's gonna be a long 4 days

If there even is a Direct on the 20th at all
 

Garteam

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It's kinda funny how much people's standards differ in terms of what makes a game financially successful. ARMS, a new series, sells 2 million units and many consider its performance underwhelming. Atelier Ryza, entry 21 in a series that has been going since 1997, sells a quarter of that and is deemed a surprising success.
 

Shroob

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It's kinda funny how much people's standards differ in terms of what makes a game financially successful. ARMS, a new series, sells 2 million units and many consider its performance underwhelming. Atelier Ryza, entry 21 in a series that has been going since 1997, sells a quarter of that and is deemed a surprising success.
I mean, ARMs was successful, it's stupid to deny it.

Now does it have lasting appeal like Splatoon did is another question.



I feel like people judge ARMs based on how Splatoon performed, which is a bit disingenuous since they're completely different games.
 
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It's kinda funny how much people's standards differ in terms of what makes a game financially successful. ARMS, a new series, sells 2 million units and many consider its performance underwhelming. Atelier Ryza, entry 21 in a series that has been going since 1997, sells a quarter of that and is deemed a surprising success.
It's partly about how much money was put into it, right? Also circumstances. FE Echoes was considered a success even when it sold less than the two prior games because it was a late 3DS remake. It was a good remake, but nobody was expecting it to push huge numbers. If you're expecting to make $1000 on something and then you make $1200 (just some random numbers), you're going to feel pretty good about it.
 

SpectreJordan

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I don’t think Ryza’s sales would really matter when it comes to FP2. That game came out in September, negotiations for any third parties were definitely under way by that point. It could still possibly happen but the surprise success of the latest game wouldn’t be a factor in that choice.

I still think this choice would stick out like a sore thumb though. I feel the likes of Touhou & Danganronpa would make more sense than Atelier tbh.
 

ZelDan

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I will say that while I have no personal interest in the Atelier series it is always nice to see a different series get discussion and get the spotlight in Smash speculation, even if just for a bit.
 

Shroob

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It's partly about how much money was put into it, right? Also circumstances. FE Echoes was considered a success even when it sold less than the two prior games because it was a late 3DS remake. It was a good remake, but nobody was expecting it to push huge numbers. If you're expecting to make $1000 on something and then you make $1200 (just some random numbers), you're going to feel pretty good about it.
This is also true.

ARMs did well, no denying that, but it feels like it was set up to be the next 'big' IP ala Splatoon, and while it sold very well for a new IP.... I'd argue it really didn't stick the landing as easily as Splatoon did.


Likewise, in regards to this, we're dealing with a game in a long running series, it's really not trying to break the mold and stand out more than it has to.
 

ZelDan

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The discussion about how successful sales is relative reminds me of how I think the first modern Tomb Raider game was considered unsuccesful by SE despite the fact it did sell a crapload of copies.

AAA gaming man.
 

SharkLord

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It's kinda funny how much people's standards differ in terms of what makes a game financially successful. ARMS, a new series, sells 2 million units and many consider its performance underwhelming. Atelier Ryza, entry 21 in a series that has been going since 1997, sells a quarter of that and is deemed a surprising success.
To be fair, Atelier's made on a small budget and generally sells a small amount of copies that considered decent when compared to it's budget. Atelier Ryza doesn't even break into the millions, but compared to it's budget and it's standards, it's like Breath of the Wild.
 
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This is also true.

ARMs did well, no denying that, but it feels like it was set up to be the next 'big' IP ala Splatoon, and while it sold very well for a new IP.... I'd argue it really didn't stick the landing as easily as Splatoon did.


Likewise, in regards to this, we're dealing with a game in a long running series, it's really not trying to break the mold and stand out more than it has to.
With Atelier, I'd say the best thing about Ryza's better sales is that it will encourage the series to grow moving forward. More money can be put into future games, which makes them more polished, which should bring them more recognition. This could be the start of something more for a very humble series of games that's been around for a long time.
 

Teeb147

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I don’t think Ryza’s sales would really matter when it comes to FP2. That game came out in September, negotiations for any third parties were definitely under way by that point. It could still possibly happen but the surprise success of the latest game wouldn’t be a factor in that choice.

I still think this choice would stick out like a sore thumb though. I feel the likes of Touhou & Danganronpa would make more sense than Atelier tbh.
It would be well timed if they announce the sequel in the direct too. Which is what the leak mentioned.
 

VGPhaze

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Hey all! I made my first video today, about what Paper Mario’s moveset could be like in Ultimate. I’d love for you to check it out and give me some feedback if you’re interested. https://youtu.be/mXY97vcuato
 

Garteam

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I mean, ARMs was successful, it's stupid to deny it.

Now does it have lasting appeal like Splatoon did is another question.



I feel like people judge ARMs based on how Splatoon performed, which is a bit disingenuous since they're completely different games.
Yeah, I definitely think people saying "ARMS isn't Splatoon, therefore it's not successful." are forgetting just how much of an anomaly Splatoon was. It had a 45% attachment rate in Japan and sold faster than Smash for Wii U and Mario Kart 8 in its first 18 weeks. That would be bonkers for any game, let alone one in a few franchise. Saying Splatoon is the standard that everyone has to meet to be a successful new franchise is like saying Michael Jordan is the standard that everyone has to meet to be good at basketball.

In regards to ARMS staying power, it's kinda obvious that ARMS isn't Splatoon in terms of maintaining a long-term player base. However, I still would say ARMS did fairly well for itself, especially on how face the gaming spotlight moves and how much competition it had in its first year on the market. I mean, the fact the game had enough of an active player base to justify new updates and events 2 years into its life is relatively commendable.
 

Rie Sonomura

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so about that email they found for a mario 35th...

GUESS WHAT THE **** ELSE THEY FOUND!!!!!!!!!!!!


KHDSGJHSDKLHGSDITWERSIOPAE

I DID MY WAITING!!! 16 YEARS OF IT!!!

also id say Black Shadow's chances just went up baby
 

zferolie

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The discussion about how successful sales is relative reminds me of how I think the first modern Tomb Raider game was considered unsuccesful by SE despite the fact it did sell a crapload of copies.

AAA gaming man.
They go way over budget, needing super expensive graphocs to animaye every single haor which the majority of gamers dont even care about, and then higher hollywood actors instead of voice actors, which cost a lot more(though i feel voice actors need to be paid more still) and then they spend like multi millons of dollars marketing the game... and then wonder why they dont make as much money as they used to. Its sad
 

Speed Weed

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alright i would vastly prefer hayabusa and i do think they'd pick ninja gaiden first, buuuuuut in the potential event that the leak was real and not only does power stone 3 actually ****ing happen but ryza is cp7....

people who actually know a thing about atelier. who's ryza. what could she bring to the table. lay it on me.
 

MooMew64

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ARMS gets flack because it wasn't another Splatoon, but that's a tall order to ask because Splatoon stands as one of Nintendo's big franchises now. Thinking every new IP is a failure if it doesn't sell 10+ million is a little harsh IMO: When you compare ARMS to to other Nintendo IPs at their debue, it actually did pretty well for itself. Heck, I'd even argue that it's actually pretty impressive it did as much as it did because not only was it a new IP, it was an experimental IP in the fighting game genre, which isn't exactly an easy scene to break in to.
 

zferolie

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so about that email they found for a mario 35th...

GUESS WHAT THE **** ELSE THEY FOUND!!!!!!!!!!!!


KHDSGJHSDKLHGSDITWERSIOPAE

I DID MY WAITING!!! 16 YEARS OF IT!!!

also id say Black Shadow's chances just went up baby
If this is true its about time, and i hope its as fun as the gamecube game
 

Shroob

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Even though I say it's a bit disingenuous to compare Splatoon and ARMs, it's hard not to.

Splatoon sold nearly 5 million copies, on the WiiU of all systems, and as soon as it came out, it just... went. It exploded in popularity like crazy. It had merchandising out the ass, manga written about it, and hell, even ****ing concerts with holograms.


ARMs has been out for about 3 years now and it's sold.... I wanna say 2.5-3 million units? On the Switch? That's not bad by any means, but until Min Min, I can't really remember 'that' much discussion about ARMs as a game except for the time during Ultimate's speculation period where Spring Man was "A lock".... after that, it just kinda faded. Still a devoted fanbase no doubt, but then Splatoon was on the same system as well and crushed it once more saleswise.


It's not 'fair' to compare the two, but it's incredibly hard not to when one absolutely exploded and continues to grow, while the other hit a peak and kinda stagnated from there.
 

SKX31

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I feel like people judge ARMs based on how Splatoon performed, which is a bit disingenuous since they're completely different games.
So did Nintendo it seems too - they held official ARMS tournaments in 2017 and 2018 (With the ARMS Japan Grand Prix being their main event)... only to have no official events for ARMS during 2019 for some reason. Contrast this with Splatoon, which has seen official tournaments regularily.

The initial March 2020 reveal was a blessing for the ARMS community. Not only because of the free-play period, but also since NoA held the first official ARMS event (Online Open) in almost two years then.
 

Droodle

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Like I've said before, the Ryza in Smash leak is pretty much fake, however people need to realize Sakurai's thoughts on gaming.

sakurai.jpg


Sakurai is happy to give other Japanese (or Western) companies/series a push through Smash, even if they may not be the biggest, most well known out there. He knows that Smash can generate new interest in a series that people normally may not be interested in, outside of the dedicated fans.

Source: https://sourcegaming.info/2016/12/16/the-substantial-barrier-of-aaa-games-sakurai-col-514/
 
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MooMew64

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Even though I say it's a bit disingenuous to compare Splatoon and ARMs, it's hard not to.

Splatoon sold nearly 5 million copies, on the WiiU of all systems, and as soon as it came out, it just... went. It exploded in popularity like crazy. It had merchandising out the ass, manga written about it, and hell, even ****ing concerts with holograms.


ARMs has been out for about 3 years now and it's sold.... I wanna say 2.5-3 million units? On the Switch? That's not bad by any means, but until Min Min, I can't really remember 'that' much discussion about ARMs as a game except for the time during Ultimate's speculation period where Spring Man was "A lock".... after that, it just kinda faded. Still a devoted fanbase no doubt, but then Splatoon was on the same system as well and crushed it once more saleswise.


It's not 'fair' to compare the two, but it's incredibly hard not to when one absolutely exploded and continues to grow, while the other hit a peak and kinda stagnated from there.
ARMS is kinda like Pikmin to me in the sense that it's got it's established following that likes it, but in terms of growth it's kinda just is what it is and probably won't change too much for the foreseeable future.
 

zferolie

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Like I've said before, the Ryza in Smash leak is pretty much fake, however people need to realize Sakurai's thoughts on gaming.

View attachment 278750

Sakurai is happy to give other Japanese (or Western) companies/series a push through Smash, even if they may not be the biggest, most well known out there. He knows that Smash can generate new interest in a series that people normally may not be interested in, outside of the dedicated fans.

Source: https://sourcegaming.info/2016/12/16/the-substantial-barrier-of-aaa-games-sakurai-col-514/

Pretty much this. I think people forget only 1 thing matters for getting in smash: Does sakurai want you in smash? If he does, you get in, regardless of sales numbers, being the main character, or being from a new or long dead series
 

CapitaineCrash

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so about that email they found for a mario 35th...

GUESS WHAT THE **** ELSE THEY FOUND!!!!!!!!!!!!


KHDSGJHSDKLHGSDITWERSIOPAE

I DID MY WAITING!!! 16 YEARS OF IT!!!

also id say Black Shadow's chances just went up baby
I'm not even joking, if there's a F-zero on switch I'm probably going to cry. Also this year is F-zero 30th anniversary, and Sakurai had the Falcon voice actor just to make the sound of him eating noodles. There might be something coming, but I want to keep m'y expectations low.
 
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SharkLord

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alright i would vastly prefer hayabusa and i do think they'd pick ninja gaiden first, buuuuuut in the potential event that the leak was real and not only does power stone 3 actually ****ing happen but ryza is cp7....

people who actually know a thing about atelier. who's ryza. what could she bring to the table. lay it on me.
Atelier is a long-running series of RPGs that are fairly popular in Japan, despite not selling very high. They're kinda like Kirby in that they're happy and cutesy types of games, and the plots are generally pretty low-stakes and personal compared to most RPGs. Apparently the first too games have also been re-released and ported to a ludicrous number of consoles, including Japan-only ones, despite being unlocalized installments. Yeah.

Ryza is the titular main protagonist of Atelier Ryza, which brought the series a bit of attention by doing surprisingly well for a game of it's budget and standards. There's a lot of other protagonists, too, though I'm not sure if we could pull a Hero with them or not. Still, Atelier Ryza's success means Ryza's going to be pushed by the marketing a fair bit.

Atelier's main draw is the alchemy, which it actually introduced to RPGs (Or popularized, at least). It's mainly focused around running around, collecting various materials, and using them to craft different tools, like an axe or a bomb. An Atelier character would probably use those tools in battle at the very least, though they could probably have a deeper crafting system built in as well.

And that's about all I know. I'm sure there's some bigger Atelier fans who could explain better than I could, but that's what I have to say.
 

Droodle

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I'm not even joking, if there's a F-zero on switch I'm probably going to cry. Also this year is F-zero 30th anniversary, and Sakurai had the Falcon voice actor just to make the sound of him eating noodles. There might be something coming, but I want to keep m'y expectations low.
Honestly speaking I do believe the leak, and I'm not usually one of those people that believes leaks. The timing matches up, and it's an account that's been sitting there since March. Sure it could be a hoax prepared for a long time, but I think this is real.

But I will say that Sakurai getting the voice actor for Falcon isn't all that strange. He works with Bandai Namco who create the Dragon Ball games. And you know how the saying goes "Where there's Dragon Ball there's boatloads of Vegeta merch to be made".
 
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D

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Honestly if there is a silver lining with this leak, it brought Atelier up to the Smash crowd. I do enjoy it whenever series not commonly discussed in Smash fandom gets brought up as a possibility because it adds more variety and spice to discussion. When those supposed leaks with Reimu and Monokuma got brought up a while ago, I actually got happy we weren't just talking about the usual Waluigi, Geno, Doom Guy, Sora, etc etc talk and happy people noticed Touhou and Danganronpa.


I do feel like we may get one of these less discussed/niche characters into Smash. It can't be nothing but commonly discussed names and sometimes the most interesting characters are ones that aren't always discussed.
Another silver lining is that we get to talk about other potential Koei-Tecmo reps that isn't just Hayabusa because pretty much everyone is of the mindset that he's the only candidate available when that is far from the truth, albeit it's just 1 different character everyone's focused on and it's that Overwatch/Female Character 4chan Post all over again.

Ryza being in Vol 2 would be less about legacy like many have said, but it would be more of grand exposure to a small series people may be interested in when given the chance. Now, I wouldn't say Ryza being in Smash would mean the Atelier games are gonna reach Dragon Quest level of sales figures immediately, but her design will definitely grab people's attention like it did when the game was first unveiled.
 

Professor Pumpkaboo

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so about that email they found for a mario 35th...

GUESS WHAT THE **** ELSE THEY FOUND!!!!!!!!!!!!


KHDSGJHSDKLHGSDITWERSIOPAE

I DID MY WAITING!!! 16 YEARS OF IT!!!

also id say Black Shadow's chances just went up baby
ironic how this happens AFTER the hacks on twitter
 

Evil Trapezium

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so about that email they found for a mario 35th...

GUESS WHAT THE **** ELSE THEY FOUND!!!!!!!!!!!!


KHDSGJHSDKLHGSDITWERSIOPAE

I DID MY WAITING!!! 16 YEARS OF IT!!!

also id say Black Shadow's chances just went up baby
Yeah I'm not going to believe this. Even if this does result in another F-Zero game, I wouldn't put it past Nintendo to ruin it by adding mandatory gimmicks.

Like I've said before, the Ryza in Smash leak is pretty much fake, however people need to realize Sakurai's thoughts on gaming.

View attachment 278750

Sakurai is happy to give other Japanese (or Western) companies/series a push through Smash, even if they may not be the biggest, most well known out there. He knows that Smash can generate new interest in a series that people normally may not be interested in, outside of the dedicated fans.

Source: https://sourcegaming.info/2016/12/16/the-substantial-barrier-of-aaa-games-sakurai-col-514/
Yay! That means Cortez has always had a good chance!

YEAH! Time to Split!
Time to Split right on compressed.gif
 

NonSpecificGuy

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Hayabusa is embedded into the very DNA of nearly everything Koei-Tecmo does. He was the main crossover character they used to promote Warriors Orochi 3 & 4, he has been a part of their heavy hitting fighting game franchise since day 1 and even started as the protagonist of Dead or Alive 2, he has appeared in games like Nioh or Dynasty Warriors Strike Force, has been considered THE video game Ninja for 2 DECADES, and the name NINJA GAIDEN is iconic as even if you have never played the games it’s almost certain that you’ve heard the name.

It’s being intentionally ignorant to claim that Atelier is larger than Ninja Gaiden when just from sales alone you can tell that’s not true. Let alone the fact that 90% of people hadn’t even heard of Atelier before this leak. And all this is because a character showed up in a leak. As soon as that happens arguments have to be made why this said character is a way better choice than that of another because a leak said so despite nothing really backing that up.

If Atelier gets a character then fine. Awesome. Good for them. But claiming that Atelier is a gargantuan series all of a sudden because one of its characters just showed up in a 4chan leak ain’t it.

Edit: and just putting this out there that “Ninja Gaiden has no future” statement even though purposefully ignoring Dead or Alive and Nioh, is still incorrect.
‘The core members of the team that worked on Ninja Gaiden want to make a new game,’ Nioh 2 director Fumihiko Yasuda told IGN. ‘We are aware that some fans wanted Ninja Gaiden more than Nioh 2. Now we see a lot of ninja games like [Sekiro: Shadows Die Twice] as well, and we see a lot of good inspirations in those games, so we hope to deliver some good news one day.’
 
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SnowClaws

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alright i would vastly prefer hayabusa and i do think they'd pick ninja gaiden first, buuuuuut in the potential event that the leak was real and not only does power stone 3 actually ****ing happen but ryza is cp7....

people who actually know a thing about atelier. who's ryza. what could she bring to the table. lay it on me.
Ryza could potential brought over 350 BGM for Smash from the following series:
* Atelier Lulua
* Nights of Azure
* Nights of Azure 2
* Ciel nosurge
* Ar nosurge
* Augmented Reality Girls Trinary


Source: GUST Extra BGM Pack (Season Pass)
Alternate source
 

zferolie

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Hayabusa is embedded into the very DNA of nearly everything Koei-Tecmo does. He was the main crossover character they used to promote Warriors Orochi 3 & 4, he has been a part of their heavy hitting fighting game franchise since day 1 and even started as the protagonist of Dead or Alive 2, he has appeared in games like Nioh or Dynasty Warriors Strike Force, has been considered THE video game Ninja for 2 DECADES, and the name NINJA GAIDEN is iconic as even if you have never played the games it’s almost certain that you’ve heard the name.

It’s being intentionally ignorant to claim that Atelier is larger than Ninja Gaiden when just from sales alone you can tell that’s not true. Let alone the fact that 90% of people hadn’t even heard of Atelier before this leak. And all this is because a character showed up in a leak. As soon as that happens arguments have to be made why this said character is a way better choice than that of another because a leak said so despite nothing really backing that up.

If Atelier gets a character then fine. Awesome. Good for them. But claiming that Atelier is a gargantuan series all of a sudden because one of its characters just showed up in a 4chan leak ain’t it.

Edit: and just putting this out there that “Ninja Gaiden has no future” statement even though purposefully ignoring Dead or Alive and Nioh, is still incorrect.
I dont think anyone is claiming the Atelier series is gargantuan, but it does have a ton more games then Ryu does(not counting games he guest stared in like DoA). It is KT/Gusts regualry released JRPG series every 2 years or so, thats a nice confort food like game that doesnt sell super well but sells well enough to keep going.

Yes Hayabusa s name is much bigger in the game industry but the Atelier games are still quite important to koei
 

Teeb147

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Hayabusa is embedded into the very DNA of nearly everything Koei-Tecmo does. He was the main crossover character they used to promote Warriors Orochi 3 & 4, he has been a part of their heavy hitting fighting game franchise since day 1 and even started as the protagonist of Dead or Alive 2, he has appeared in games like Nioh or Dynasty Warriors Strike Force, has been considered THE video game Ninja for 2 DECADES, and the name NINJA GAIDEN is iconic as even if you have never played the games it’s almost certain that you’ve heard the name.

It’s being intentionally ignorant to claim that Atelier is larger than Ninja Gaiden when just from sales alone you can tell that’s not true. Let alone the fact that 90% of people hadn’t even heard of Atelier before this leak. And all this is because a character showed up in a leak. As soon as that happens arguments have to be made why this said character is a way better choice than that of another because a leak said so despite nothing really backing that up.

If Atelier gets a character then fine. Awesome. Good for them. But claiming that Atelier is a gargantuan series all of a sudden because one of its characters just showed up in a 4chan leak ain’t it.

Edit: and just putting this out there that “Ninja Gaiden has no future” statement even though purposefully ignoring Dead or Alive and Nioh, is still incorrect.
I dont think anyone would literally mean atelier is anywhere near the popularity or recognition of ninja gaiden.
If Ryza would get in, promotion would probably be the biggest reason.
 
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