Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[Crazy Hand 2001]

Every time a third party series has a newcomer in a Smash Bros game, the first 1st party character revealed after the 3rd party character is a Fire Emblem character, as posted here.

Sonic, Mega Man and Bayonetta are the only times this pattern was broken, and even then Bayo was revealed alongside a FE newcomer. Does this mean there is a curse between 3rd party characters being added to Smash?

 

[Faso115]

Every time a third party series has a newcomer in a Smash Bros game, the first 1st party character revealed after the 3rd party character is a Fire Emblem character, as posted here.

Sonic, Mega Man and Bayonetta are the only times this pattern was broken, and even then Bayo was revealed alongside a FE newcomer. Does this mean there is a curse between 3rd party characters being added to Smash?

You mean like how the first pass have 4 third parties on a row and then followed by Byleth? Patterns rarely ever account to anything.

Only reliable pattern is that every new smash character is bound to dissapoint someone. Can never go wrong with that one

 

[Crazy Hand 2001]

You mean like how the first pass have 4 third parties on a row and then followed by Byleth? Patterns rarely ever account to anything.

what other patterns get broken frequently?

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Every time a third party series has a newcomer in a Smash Bros game, the first 1st party character revealed after the 3rd party character is a Fire Emblem character, as posted here.

Sonic, Mega Man and Bayonetta are the only times this pattern was broken, and even then Bayo was revealed alongside a FE newcomer. Does this mean there is a curse between 3rd party characters being added to Smash?

The only curse is that first parties are underwhelming in comparison to most third party suggestions these days due to obvious and understandable reasons

 

[osby]

Every time a third party series has a newcomer in a Smash Bros game, the first 1st party character revealed after the 3rd party character is a Fire Emblem character, as posted here.

Sonic, Mega Man and Bayonetta are the only times this pattern was broken, and even then Bayo was revealed alongside a FE newcomer. Does this mean there is a curse between 3rd party characters being added to Smash?

Wow, people are really getting desperate to play their "Fire Emblem fear-mongering" card.

 

[Crazy Hand 2001]

Wow, people are really getting desperate to play their "Fire Emblem fear-mongering" card.

I don’t really care myself but I figured I might as well share that guy’s posts

 

[Opossum]

Gamefaqs being unable to Cope will always be funny. Cry more, Gamefaqs.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Gamefaqs being unable to Cope will always be funny. Cry more, Gamefaqs.

The true Fire Emblem curse is that every time people complain about Fire Emblem content in Smash, Sakurai feels more compelled to add more

 

[MooMew64]

The fact that some people are actually thinking we're gonna get another FE character in DLC is really funny to me.

I mean, I'd love it and would think it would be hilarious, but nah FE ain't getting anything more right now. A shame, as we still lack Anna.

 

[Jomosensual]

Eh...that's PRETTY cool...I guess.

But these are the lists that really matter:

Spoiler

View attachment 276998

View attachment 276999

Bo Jackson to Smash confirmed.

 

[Faso115]

Gamefaqs being unable to Cope will always be funny. Cry more, Gamefaqs.

So mean, internet trolls and mean people have feelings ya know /s

 

[SpectreJordan]

The guy said multiple times that he doesn't personally pick the DLC fighters and people still want him to justify included/excluded characters.

I will admit, that’s my bad. But I still imagine he has something to say about those two not getting in. I just enjoy hearing his decision making process & thoughts on various games/series.

Because it's not about filling out a checklist of the best-selling games of all time.

Ok, but what about two beloved series that are still going strong after two decades?

The rest of the list seems to suggest otherwise.

Pretty much. The only third parties in Smash that aren’t on that list are Bayo, Banjo & Terry. Bayo & Banjo got in because of fan demand & close ties to Nintendo. Terry got in because of the historical reasons we all know at this point; but I suspect that King of Fighters would be on that list if we included arcade profits.

Obviously I don’t think they’re following that list to a tee (I personally think we’ll see a smaller but still popular Japanese franchise like Sakura Wars), but with how many of those franchises are already in Smash it seems likely that we’ll see some more of them. I could see all of them besides Kingdom Hearts being repped in some form before Ultimate is over.

KH will be the trickiest one to get into Smash & I imagine it’ll be Sora as a playable character or nothing scenario.

 

[Guynamednelson]

I kinda doubt that speculation will shift to smaller series, even if the next newcomer is not a heavy hitter by any means. I still remember that after E3 last year, people expected Ryu Hayabusa and Doom Guy to be next. Then Terry got revealed, and everyone was like "oh, the Pass has to end on a bang though! Doom Dude or Ryu Hayabusa is definitely next! Or Master Chief!". Cue Byleth. And before we got the general ARMS reveal, people went right back to placing their expectations super high.
Point being, I don't think people will ever stop expecting all these big heavy hitters.

The date is December 2021. 5/6 of FP2 has been revealed, with 4 of them being first parties and the only third party being something low-key. The Smash community ignores all this just to stan Master Chief.

 

[Opossum]

The date is December 2021. 5/6 of FP2 has been revealed, with 4 of them being first parties and the only third party being something low-key. The Smash community ignores all this just to stan Master Chief.

Four first parties sounds very unlikely to me.

 

[Guynamednelson]

Four first parties sounds very unlikely to me.

It's not about being fully realistic, minus the part where Smash fans won't pay attention to the fact that the characters included aren't on par with Chief.

 

[Ramen Tengoku]

Every time a third party series has a newcomer in a Smash Bros game, the first 1st party character revealed after the 3rd party character is a Fire Emblem character, as posted here.

Sonic, Mega Man and Bayonetta are the only times this pattern was broken, and even then Bayo was revealed alongside a FE newcomer. Does this mean there is a curse between 3rd party characters being added to Smash?

The fact that you literally listed exceptions makes me feel like it's not really a concrete pattern after all

 

[SNEKeater]

I decided to look at the list of best-selling video game franchises to see which major Japanese franchises were missing from Smash Ultimate. I used sub-20 million in sales as my cut-off point and marked series with playable characters as green, series in Smash without playable characters as yellow, and series not in Smash as red. Here's what I found:

Spoiler

• Mario
• Pokemon
• Wii (Depends how you count the Miis)
• Final Fantasy
• Mario Kart
• Sonic the Hedgehog
• Wii Sports (Once again, depends how you count the Miis)
• The Legend of Zelda
• Resident Evil
• Dragon Quest
• Monster Hunter
• Super Smash Bros (Say it with Mii now)
• Donkey Kong
• Metal Gear
• Dragon Ball (Not happening for obvious reasons, but it still technically meets the criteria)
• Mario Party
• Tekken
• Street Fighter
• Wii Fit
• Game & Watch
• Pac-Man
• Mario Sports
• Kirby
• Mega Man
• Animal Crossing
• Brain Age
• Gundam (Not happening for obvious reasons, but it still technically meets the criteria)
• Kingdom Hearts
• Nintendogs
• Souls
• Mario & Sonic (There are no references to these games in particular, but both Mario and Sonic are in the game...)
• Power Pros
• Devil May Cry
• Yu-Gi-Oh (Not happening for obvious reasons, but it still technically meets the criteria)
• Castlevania
• Frogger
• Simple
• Tales

I'm gonna be honest, these results actually kind of surprised me. I didn't expect this many entries in the list are featured in Smash. Not only that, but it's mostly the relatively smaller series that currently have no representation in Smash Ultimate. I mean, cutting out the ineligible Dragon Ball and Gundam, you have to go through the 25 largest franchises on the list before you reach Kingdom Hearts, the biggest Japanese franchise to be completely absent from Smash.

Let's go Frogger.

Its great that the top 10 best selling Japanese IPs are in Smash, and 7 of them with playable fighters. Its interesting to note that in the first 3 games (Brawl, 4 and 4 DLC) they go for the biggest names (Sonic and Snake in Brawl, Megaman and Pacman in 4, Ryu and Cloud in 4 DLC), then in Ultimate they decided to start exploring IPs that are a bit less successful in sales (although in base game we got Monster Hunter, as an AT sure but I think that was an internal decision with thinking about the best way to represent that IP, if they want, they could have add MH as a fighter). I hope that in this FP2 they will concentrate in top 11-20 with more representation like Kingdom Hearts (that is likely it will get in top 10 very soon) and Devil May Cry. I think that Dark Souls can work as a boss just like Monster Hunter, rather than a fighter.

I could see Dark Souls having a boss and being repped that way, but I really doubt we're gonna get extra bosses or assist trophies during DLC. So at most if Dark Souls doesn't get a character, I'm expecting a Mii Costume for a Souls character, probably Solaire.

 

[SpectreJordan]

There’s a chance that those extra DLC stage spots could be filled with stages that don’t come with characters, similar to what Smash 4 had. A Dark Souls Stage would pretty sick tbh.

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

There’s a chance that those extra DLC stage spots could be filled with stages that don’t come with characters, similar to what Smash 4 had. A Dark Souls Stage would pretty sick tbh.

Not gonna lie, a Resident Evil stage, even without a character, would be pretty damn cool.

 

[Garteam]

Dear god...We've been at this **** for 2 years, and there still one and half left to AT LEAST finish Fighter pass 2.

When will the ride end?

Don't worry the ride will end in December 2021...

Only to start resume in January 2024 with the announcement of Super Smash Bros. Ultimate: Deluxe Edition for the Super Switch! Pre-order now and receive the Boy from Time Twist as free DLC!

 

[Schnee117]

Let's go Frogger.



I could see Dark Souls having a boss and being repped that way, but I really doubt we're gonna get extra bosses or assist trophies during DLC. So at most if Dark Souls doesn't get a character, I'm expecting a Mii Costume for a Souls character, probably Solaire.

Souls is honestly ripe for the picking when it comes to Mii costumes. There's so many different armour sets in the game to pick from like the Elite Knight set, the Artorias set, Solaire's set, the Catalina set, Havel's set and so on. You could make a whole Mii Costume wave of them if you could overlook all of them being swordfighters lol

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

I think the amount of 1st/3rd parties depends on things we just can't really say right now.

For example, just because Spirits don't disconfirm fighters, it doesn't mean that we're getting a pass full of them. I'd actually say I don't personally think we're getting a full upgrade pass.

If Assist Trophies are out (which I think there's a more compelling case for, whereas Spirits are essentially the trophy equivalent), then that takes out Waluigi, Isaac, Lyn, and others. If post-launch Spirit event timing and purpose disconfirm, that would knock out Pokemon (though, it's Pokemon, so I'm not quite willing to say it's out), Astral Chain, and Ring Fit Adventure. That basically leaves Rex from XC2 and Bandanna Waddle Dee as front runners for 1st party DLC.

If other trends for Season Pass DLC continue, such as picking a/the protagonist of each game/series then that looks good for Rex, not so much for BWD. That significantly cuts down on popular 1st party picks even further. While this is a “trend”, I don’t think it’s as strong as the overall series trend of “mascot or protagonist first for new series or games”. Has been consistent but could change.

There's also the flipside of things, where they add an Assist Trophy as playable or another Spirit Upgrade aside from Rex, for example. This is holistically different from the outlook for 3rd parties, which still has extensive options to go for.

I would just be wary of how we look at certain things with character ratios. Obviously everyone has different wants when it comes to Smash, especially if this is the last wave of DLC. I think, personally, the safest bet is 3:3, split down the middle between 1st and 3rd parties. I could however see it swing to 4:2 with 3rd parties receiving more just given the situation, and uncertainties obstructing the paths of certain 1st party additions.

This wasn’t meant as a “1st parties bad” post. Simply how I view the situation currently.

EDIT: One last thing, we DO have a bit of information of how post-launch spirits COULD be treated. Three Houses wasn't celebrated with Spirits because it would later be added as an entire Spirit Board with a DLC fighter. This goes directly against Pokemon Sword & Shield, Ring Fit, or Astral Chain.

Then there's the opposite, where ARMS had base game Spirits that were simply incorporated into a DLC Spirit board. I think it's a toss up, but that's largely why I'm unsure of how it'll work. Seems to me that Pokemon relies of post-launch Spirits not being a disconfirmation.

 

[Cosmic77]

Even if we really did get four first-parties in this pass, I don't think that's an unfair ratio. Excluding PP, we'd still have one more third-party (6) than first-parties (5).

 

[Luigi580]

Even if we really did get four first-parties in this pass, I don't think that's an unfair ratio. Excluding PP, we'd still have one more third-party (6) than first-parties (5).

Even if we include Piranha Plant, that's an even six for both. I see nothing wrong with that.

 

[Geno Boost]

I don’t think anyone has pointed this out but apparently in all star smash mode Hero’s position has been changed from the 2010s characters to 1980s characters which is great.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

Even if we really did get four first-parties in this pass, I don't think that's an unfair ratio. Excluding PP, we'd still have one more third-party (6) than first-parties (5).

I don't think that's an entirely fair ratio considering three of those were veterans. It's a fundamentally different addition, even if it's DLC. Piranha Plant was also planned for base, and not part of the Season Pass.

We now have a pool of entirely newcomers, with potentially strict conditions. Spirit promotions help some characters, but not necessarily all NPCs depending on what they already have in the game.

In newcomer DLC specifically, 7 have been 3rd party protagonists, 2 have been "new Fire Emblem"/"shill" picks, while ARMS could be a "grey area" shill pick. While it doesn't prove it's a trend, it shows how 1st party newcomers historically have been handled as DLC. They could continue being shill picks, but from post-launch Spirits, "shill" titles are clearly not in abundance if they disconfirm.

Your ratio isn't wrong, but I don't think it accurately portrays newcomer DLC. Veterans are simply inherently different (and didn't come with any other content; just the characters themselves), and I think it could be argued they were used to "test the waters" fo DLC development as well.

Plus, it's never been about having "equal amounts". It's about context of when the picks are made, and which picks are considered. The amount of 1st party picks depends on if Assist Trophies matter, and if being a "mascot/protagonist" matters. If they do, then that moves the needle a bit toward 3rd parties, I would say.

 

[Evil Trapezium]

Even if we really did get four first-parties in this pass, I don't think that's an unfair ratio. Excluding PP, we'd still have one more third-party (6) than first-parties (5).

Yeah but if we count the number of newcomers in Ultimate altogether then we have this.

First Party:
Third Party:

This means for it to be truly fair, we need four third parties characters and one character that is from a first party franchise but also owned by a third party company.

 

[Crazy Hand 2001]

The fact that you literally listed exceptions makes me feel like it's not really a concrete pattern after all

the fact that patterns often have one or two exceptions and the fact that the pattern hasn’t been broken in Smash Ultimate so far (Ken did break the “new character” but not “new series” pattern; as that topic didn’t indicate) means that the pattern exists, it’s just not as obvious.

 

[Mushroomguy12]

one character that is from a first party franchise but also owned by a third party company.

Geeee, I wonder what character you could be referring to. No idea who that could be.

 

[Cosmic77]

I don't think that's an entirely fair ratio considering three of those were veterans. It's a fundamentally different addition, even if it's DLC. Piranha Plant was also planned for base, and not part of the Season Pass.

We now have a pool of entirely newcomers, with potentially strict conditions. Spirit promotions help some characters, but not necessarily all NPCs depending on what they already have in the game.

In newcomer DLC specifically, 7 have been 3rd party protagonists, 2 have been "new Fire Emblem"/"shill" picks, while ARMS could be a "grey area" shill pick. While it doesn't prove it's a trend, it shows how 1st party newcomers historically have been handled as DLC. They could continue being shill picks, but from post-launch Spirits, "shill" titles are clearly not in abundance if they disconfirm.

Your ratio isn't wrong, but I don't think it accurately portrays newcomer DLC. Veterans are simply inherently different (and didn't come with any other content; just the characters themselves), and I think it could be argued they were used to "test the waters" fo DLC development as well.

I wasn't talking about Smash 4.

If the second pass had four first-parties and two third-parties, then overall we'd have six third-parties and five first-parties. That seems pretty fair to me. Not sure why either side would feel cheated.

 

[SharkLord]

View attachment 276996

Tried my hand at some predictions, though it's mostly just who I have my eye on, plus a little bit of bias on who I just really wanna see personally.

Gun to my head, the only one I'd be willing to put actual faith into is Rex.

Also, these ain't, like, the order i expect these characters to be revealed in, just the order I wanted to put 'em in.

EDIT: Changed the last slot.

I tried to shove my entire wallet through the screen and now I have a broken screen, please call help.

But in all seriousness, I would adore this pass. Everyone here is on my wishlist to some degree, and I got my most wanted. Probably my favorite fanmade pass I've seen so far.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

I wasn't talking about Smash 4.

If the second pass had four first-parties and two third-parties, then overall we'd have six third-parties and five first-parties. That seems pretty fair to me. Not sure why either side would feel cheated.

Ah, I see. Disregard that then.

That said, I would still say it has nothing to do with what is deemed "fair" when there are examples of "unfairness" across the roster. Fire Emblem has 8 characters while Kirby has 3. Mother has 2 characters while F-Zero has only 1. Namco is co-developing the game and has one character, while SEGA and Capcom have 3.

It's not so much about fairness, but more about what matters and what doesn't. If trends continue (shill picks/new series/mainly protagonists of series, all of which have been staples of DLC since Wii U/3DS) then that deals a blow to...several 1st party candidates people want.

Not to say it's impossible- I would say nothing is inherently impossible of happening. I would just say it's got nothing to do with fairness. It's a fairly arbitrary concept in the first place.

 

[Faso115]

Yeah, remember that one smash speculation sees a pattern, they will try to bend it in order to fit either a narrative or a reason why one of their most wanted could get in.

Joker gets in, so every DLC is a complete out of nowhere surprise (Knowing Banjo is popular in the speculation side, i don't think that really holds too much water. Same for Hero in the east)

Banjo gets in, so we are going to get more western characters (so far, he is the only example

K. Rool, Ridley, blah blah gets in, that means we are only getting ballot characters (Inkling, Isabella and Incineroar, the triple Is as i call, totally disproved this theory)

And now that Spirits are going to be promoted because of Min Min. I only really expect one more promotions and that's it, don't expect the entire pass to be about that.

 

[Guynamednelson]

Inkling, Isabella and Incineroar, the triple Is as i call, totally disproved this theory

Incineroar is the only one who couldn't be a ballot vote. Only because it's too new, in case you get any ideas.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Don't worry the ride will end in December 2021...

Only to start resume in January 2024 with the announcement of Super Smash Bros. Ultimate: Deluxe Edition for the Super Switch! Pre-order now and receive the Boy from Time Twist as free DLC!

Now the big question: who'd stand for Hitler in his Spirit?

 

[Jomosensual]

Yeah, remember that one smash speculation sees a pattern, they will try to bend it in order to fit either a narrative or a reason why one of their most wanted could get in.

Joker gets in, so every DLC is a complete out of nowhere surprise (Knowing Banjo is popular in the speculation side, i don't think that really holds too much water. Same for Hero in the east)

Banjo gets in, so we are going to get more western characters (so far, he is the only example

K. Rool, Ridley, blah blah gets in, that means we are only getting ballot characters (Inkling, Isabella and Incineroar, the triple Is as i call, totally disproved this theory)

And now that Spirits are going to be promoted because of Min Min. I only really expect one more promotions and that's it, don't expect the entire pass to be about that.

Id be stunned if Inkling didn't do well on the ballot

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

I'd say everybody added in base roster likely was added due to the Ballot (cut vets included) except for Incineroar, Isabelle and Inkling.

Inkling would have been in Smash regardless of the Ballot, and Incineroar was too new, and was had a slot reserved for it. Isabelle was effectively the new mascot of Animal Crossing and the series had grown quite a bit over the years.

 

[RouffWestie]

Now the big question: who'd stand for Hitler in his Spirit?

Probably Pac-Man

 

[AmphabulouSnake]

Still expecting 3 First parties and 3 Third parties for this pass

 

[SpectreJordan]

I think the amount of 1st/3rd parties depends on things we just can't really say right now.

For example, just because Spirits don't disconfirm fighters, it doesn't mean that we're getting a pass full of them. I'd actually say I don't personally think we're getting a full upgrade pass.

If Assist Trophies are out (which I think there's a more compelling case for, whereas Spirits are essentially the trophy equivalent), then that takes out Waluigi, Isaac, Lyn, and others. If post-launch Spirit event timing and purpose disconfirm, that would knock out Pokemon (though, it's Pokemon, so I'm not quite willing to say it's out), Astral Chain, and Ring Fit Adventure. That basically leaves Rex from XC2 and Bandanna Waddle Dee as front runners for 1st party DLC.

If other trends for Season Pass DLC continue, such as picking a/the protagonist of each game/series then that looks good for Rex, not so much for BWD. That significantly cuts down on popular 1st party picks even further. While this is a “trend”, I don’t think it’s as strong as the overall series trend of “mascot or protagonist first for new series or games”. Has been consistent but could change.

There's also the flipside of things, where they add an Assist Trophy as playable or another Spirit Upgrade aside from Rex, for example. This is holistically different from the outlook for 3rd parties, which still has extensive options to go for.

I would just be wary of how we look at certain things with character ratios. Obviously everyone has different wants when it comes to Smash, especially if this is the last wave of DLC. I think, personally, the safest bet is 3:3, split down the middle between 1st and 3rd parties. I could however see it swing to 4:2 with 3rd parties receiving more just given the situation, and uncertainties obstructing the paths of certain 1st party additions.

This wasn’t meant as a “1st parties bad” post. Simply how I view the situation currently.

EDIT: One last thing, we DO have a bit of information of how post-launch spirits COULD be treated. Three Houses wasn't celebrated with Spirits because it would later be added as an entire Spirit Board with a DLC fighter. This goes directly against Pokemon Sword & Shield, Ring Fit, or Astral Chain.

Then there's the opposite, where ARMS had base game Spirits that were simply incorporated into a DLC Spirit board. I think it's a toss up, but that's largely why I'm unsure of how it'll work. Seems to me that Pokemon relies of post-launch Spirits not being a disconfirmation.

In addition to this, I have a feeling they’ll be saving the current popular Nintendo picks (Waluigi, Dixie, BanDee) for the base roster of the next game. They clearly did that with K Rool & Ridley during Smash 4’s DLC.