Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[Hinata]

Also the grounded version what is this pic.twitter.com/wzHMuOCYwb

— 🏳️‍🌈Hitbox Enthusiast Zeck🏳️‍🌈 (@Zeckemyro) July 2, 2020

Interestin' little tidbit for y'all: Min Min apparently used Captain Falcon as a base when she was being developed.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

I decided to look at the list of best-selling video game franchises to see which major Japanese franchises were missing from Smash Ultimate. I used sub-20 million in sales as my cut-off point and marked series with playable characters as green, series in Smash without playable characters as yellow, and series not in Smash as red. Here's what I found:

Spoiler

• Mario
• Pokemon
• Wii (Depends how you count the Miis)
• Final Fantasy
• Mario Kart
• Sonic the Hedgehog
• Wii Sports (Once again, depends how you count the Miis)
• The Legend of Zelda
• Resident Evil
• Dragon Quest
• Monster Hunter
• Super Smash Bros (Say it with Mii now)
• Donkey Kong
• Metal Gear
• Dragon Ball (Not happening for obvious reasons, but it still technically meets the criteria)
• Mario Party
• Tekken
• Street Fighter
• Wii Fit
• Game & Watch
• Pac-Man
• Mario Sports
• Kirby
• Mega Man
• Animal Crossing
• Brain Age
• Gundam (Not happening for obvious reasons, but it still technically meets the criteria)
• Kingdom Hearts
• Nintendogs
• Souls
• Mario & Sonic (There are no references to these games in particular, but both Mario and Sonic are in the game...)
• Power Pros
• Devil May Cry
• Yu-Gi-Oh (Not happening for obvious reasons, but it still technically meets the criteria)
• Castlevania
• Frogger
• Simple
• Tales

I'm gonna be honest, these results actually kind of surprised me. I didn't expect this many entries in the list are featured in Smash. Not only that, but it's mostly the relatively smaller series that currently have no representation in Smash Ultimate. I mean, cutting out the ineligible Dragon Ball and Gundam, you have to go through the 25 largest franchises on the list before you reach Kingdom Hearts, the biggest Japanese franchise to be completely absent from Smash.

I know that it wasn't made in Japan but Square Enix owning Tomb Raider makes me think it should have been on this list on a technicality if you're including licensed games

 

[MisterMike]

So I wanted to make an image version of my most recent Fighters Pass Vol.2 predictions to share with you all, but I couldn't find a template online that was to my liking. So I decided to do some Inspect Element trickery on the Smash Bros. DLC webpage, and after a good 20 minutes or so of messing around, I present to you: My Fighters Pass Vol.2 predictions!

Spoiler: If you want to know how to do this for yourself...

1. Go to the website.
2. Right click on the page and select Inspect Element.
3. Look for the images for Min Min's render and her background.
   
   Alternatively, there's a button that lets you select an element from the page with a simple click.
4. Replace "/buy/dlc/assets/fighter-minmin.png" with the HTTP of any image you can find online. You can modify the image's scale and position using the side bar. You can change the background image as well by changing "bg-minmin" to any of the other Vol.1 fighters' backgrounds. For example, Banjo's background is called "bg-banjo".
5. Change the >Min Min< right after "character-name" to whatever character name you want. You can modify the text using the side bar.

 

[SnowClaws]

Well I think we can narrow things down a little. This is all guesswork but let's see where it gets us.

Given there's less of a budget, I think that Nintendo characters will use existing models as bases, be it models already in smash (Chrom from Robin's Final Smash), recent games (Min Min uses her Model from ARMS with a new texture) or modification of existing characters (Daisy is clearly based off Peach's model.)

With those stipulations, what characters could we expect?

Below is my reply toward Evil Trapezium when he asks about model being rip from other Nintendo games and placed into Smash as a fighter(s).

TMS ♯FE - Itsuki Aoi & Chrom, Tsubasa Oribe & Caeda
XC2 - Addam Origo and/or Mythra, Lora and/or Jin
LOZ BOTW - Zelda
Super Mario Odyssey - The Broodals, Goomba Tower, T-Rex
Mario + Rabbids: Kingdom Battle - Bwario, Bwaluigi
Mario Tennis Aces - Fire Piranha Plant
Luigi's Mansion 3 - King Boo
XC1 DE - Fiora, Melia

EDIT: Forget about The Stretchers

 

[SharkLord]

TMS ♯FE - Itsuki Aoi & Chrom, Tsubasa Oribe & Caeda
XC2 - Addam Origo and/or Mythra, Lora and/or Jin
LOZ BOTW - Zelda
Super Mario Odyssey - The Broodals, Goomba Tower, T-Rex
Mario + Rabbids: Kingdom Battle - Bwario, Bwaluigi
Mario Tennis Aces - Fire Piranha Plant
Luigi's Mansion 3 - King Boo
XC1 DE - Fiora, Melia

EDIT: Forget about The Stretchers

There's also Bandana Dee's Star Allies model, among other characters that are possible but not quite as likely.

 

[SnowClaws]

There's also Bandana Dee's Star Allies model, among other characters that are possible but not quite as likely.

Bandana Dee's model could also comes from Super Kirby Clash instead of Star Allies.

 

[SharkLord]

Bandana Dee's model could also comes from Super Kirby Clash instead of Star Allies.

Yeah, that too (Assuming those models aren't one and the same, which wouldn't surprise me if true)

 

[SpectreJordan]

If you removed first party IPs and franchises that are not born in video-games (like Dragon Ball or Gundam), you get (in bold are those that has Smash representation, of any type):

1) Final Fantasy
2) Sonic the Hedgehog
3) Resident Evil
4) Dragon Quest
5) Monster Hunter
6) Metal Gear
7) Tekken
8) Street Fighter
9) Pac-Man
10) Mega Man
11) Kingdom Hearts
12) Souls
13) Power Pros
14) Devil May Cry
15) Castlevania
16) Frogger
17) Simple
18) Tales
19) Megami Tensei (includes Persona)
20) Professor Layton

Its great that the top 10 best selling Japanese IPs are in Smash, and 7 of them with playable fighters. Its interesting to note that in the first 3 games (Brawl, 4 and 4 DLC) they go for the biggest names (Sonic and Snake in Brawl, Megaman and Pacman in 4, Ryu and Cloud in 4 DLC), then in Ultimate they decided to start exploring IPs that are a bit less successful in sales (although in base game we got Monster Hunter, as an AT sure but I think that was an internal decision with thinking about the best way to represent that IP, if they want, they could have add MH as a fighter). I hope that in this FP2 they will concentrate in top 11-20 with more representation like Kingdom Hearts (that is likely it will get in top 10 very soon) and Devil May Cry. I think that Dark Souls can work as a boss just like Monster Hunter, rather than a fighter.

Very interesting seeing that in perspective. I understand making Monster Hunter a boss; since I imagine the MonHun team is still against Hunters “representing” the series (I heard Capcom went behind their backs for MvCI). But I’d like to see Sakurai explain why he seemingly passed up on Resident Evil & Tekken.

It’ll be fun to see how many more of these series we see represented in the future. I’ve never even heard of Power Pros or Simple before.

Sora, Dante & Lloyd/Yuri would be easy crowd pleasing picks. I think a Dark Souls character would be popular too despite not being too speculated on. The others would make for good Mii costumes & spirits.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Very interesting seeing that in perspective. I understand making Monster Hunter a boss; since I imagine the MonHun team is still against Hunters “representing” the series (I heard Capcom went behind their backs for MvCI). But I’d like to see Sakurai explain why he seemingly passed up on Resident Evil & Tekken.

It’ll be fun to see how many more of these series we see represented in the future. I’ve never even heard of Power Pros or Simple before.

Considering Sakurai wanted to include Heihachi in 4 but couldn't suggests that Sakurai couldn't find a way to put all 4 limb buttons in Smash, which he's stated to find integral to him

 

[Arcanir]

I understand making Monster Hunter a boss; since I imagine the MonHun team is still against Hunters “representing” the series (I heard Capcom went behind their backs for MvCI).

There's been no evidence provided that Capcom went behind their backs, so it's more then likely just an unsubstantiated rumor at this point.

 

[osby]

But I’d like to see Sakurai explain why he seemingly passed up on Resident Evil & Tekken.

The guy said multiple times that he doesn't personally pick the DLC fighters and people still want him to justify included/excluded characters.

 

[rychu_supadude]

From the Switch news feed:

"The Min Min Challenger Pack is out today, and with it comes a new playable fighter for the Super Smash Bros. Ultimate game: Min Min from the ARMS game!"

I'm sorry, but who on Earth approved this wording? Shaking my head right now.

 

[Guynamednelson]

From the Switch news feed:

"The Min Min Challenger Pack is out today, and with it comes a new playable fighter for the Super Smash Bros. Ultimate game: Min Min from the ARMS game!"

I'm sorry, but who on Earth approved this wording? Shaking my head right now.

Nintendo's lawyers.

 

[I.D.]

There's also Bandana Dee's Star Allies model, among other characters that are possible but not quite as likely.

Good thinking, Dee's model would be too time consuming otherwise.

 

[Hinata]

Tried my hand at some predictions, though it's mostly just who I have my eye on, plus a little bit of bias on who I just really wanna see personally.

Gun to my head, the only one I'd be willing to put actual faith into is Rex.

Also, these ain't, like, the order i expect these characters to be revealed in, just the order I wanted to put 'em in.

EDIT: Changed the last slot.

 

[rychu_supadude]

With the positive reception to Min Min, it's easy to forget that basically nobody was predicting an ARMS rep in FP2. I think most of Nintendo's picks are going to be popular characters, but from outside the endless circlejerk of speculation. Trying to predict their methods feels like an exercise in futility, and I've given up on putting my predictions behind any character in particular.

 

[DarthEnderX]

I decided to look at the list of best-selling video game franchises to see which major Japanese franchises were missing from Smash Ultimate. I used sub-20 million in sales as my cut-off point and marked series with playable characters as green, series in Smash without playable characters as yellow, and series not in Smash as red. Here's what I found:

Spoiler

• Mario
• Pokemon
• Wii (Depends how you count the Miis)
• Final Fantasy
• Mario Kart
• Sonic the Hedgehog
• Wii Sports (Once again, depends how you count the Miis)
• The Legend of Zelda
• Resident Evil
• Dragon Quest
• Monster Hunter
• Super Smash Bros (Say it with Mii now)
• Donkey Kong
• Metal Gear
• Dragon Ball (Not happening for obvious reasons, but it still technically meets the criteria)
• Mario Party
• Tekken
• Street Fighter
• Wii Fit
• Game & Watch
• Pac-Man
• Mario Sports
• Kirby
• Mega Man
• Animal Crossing
• Brain Age
• Gundam (Not happening for obvious reasons, but it still technically meets the criteria)
• Kingdom Hearts
• Nintendogs
• Souls
• Mario & Sonic (There are no references to these games in particular, but both Mario and Sonic are in the game...)
• Power Pros
• Devil May Cry
• Yu-Gi-Oh (Not happening for obvious reasons, but it still technically meets the criteria)
• Castlevania
• Frogger
• Simple
• Tales

I'm gonna be honest, these results actually kind of surprised me. I didn't expect this many entries in the list are featured in Smash. Not only that, but it's mostly the relatively smaller series that currently have no representation in Smash Ultimate. I mean, cutting out the ineligible Dragon Ball and Gundam, you have to go through the 25 largest franchises on the list before you reach Kingdom Hearts, the biggest Japanese franchise to be completely absent from Smash.

Eh...that's PRETTY cool...I guess.

But these are the lists that really matter:

Spoiler

 

[osby]

I don't think anyone posted the latest Picture of the Day:

pic.twitter.com/iAdSK8V0VB

— 桜井 政博 / Masahiro Sakurai (@Sora_Sakurai) July 2, 2020

P3 color scheme reminds me the opening cutscene of that game.

 

[Guynamednelson]

But I’d like to see Sakurai explain why he seemingly passed up on Resident Evil & Tekken.

Because it's not about filling out a checklist of the best-selling games of all time.

 

[Knight Dude]

Because it's not about filling out a checklist of the best-selling games of all time.

True. But the guy has expressed some interest in Tekken having a Smash character before. Of course, we can only assume the same issues might've occurred that kept Heihachi out of Smash 4, but until we hear from Sakurai himself again, we don't know for sure.

 

[Schnee117]

Because it's not about filling out a checklist of the best-selling games of all time.

Put your axe away, it's embarrassing.

 

[DarthEnderX]

Because it's not about filling out a checklist of the best-selling games of all time.

The rest of the list seems to suggest otherwise.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Put your axe away, it's embarrassing.

Never!

 

[osby]

Because it's not about filling out a checklist of the best-selling games of all time.

When you think like that, Dragon Quest is still the biggest series we got as DLC and the rest was from relatively humble franchises.

Makes one wonder just how likely "big deals" like Crash or Dante are. Depending on the next newcomer, I can see speculation focus shifting towards smaller yet influential and popular series.

Never!

"Axe me a question. I dare you."

 

[Cutie Gwen]

I don't think anyone posted the latest Picture of the Day:

pic.twitter.com/iAdSK8V0VB

— 桜井 政博 / Masahiro Sakurai (@Sora_Sakurai) July 2, 2020

P3 color scheme reminds me the opening cutscene of that game.

Considering how much Sakurai adores video games, this is likely deliberate. ************ had one of Simon's victory animations reference a ****ing glitch, you just KNOW he squees whenever he looks at stuff he's finished

 

[Evil Trapezium]

If you removed first party IPs and franchises that are not born in video-games (like Dragon Ball or Gundam), you get (in bold are those that has Smash representation, of any type):

1) Final Fantasy
2) Sonic the Hedgehog
3) Resident Evil
4) Dragon Quest
5) Monster Hunter
6) Metal Gear
7) Tekken
8) Street Fighter
9) Pac-Man
10) Mega Man
11) Kingdom Hearts
12) Souls
13) Power Pros
14) Devil May Cry
15) Castlevania
16) Frogger
17) Simple
18) Tales
19) Megami Tensei (includes Persona)
20) Professor Layton

Its great that the top 10 best selling Japanese IPs are in Smash, and 7 of them with playable fighters. Its interesting to note that in the first 3 games (Brawl, 4 and 4 DLC) they go for the biggest names (Sonic and Snake in Brawl, Megaman and Pacman in 4, Ryu and Cloud in 4 DLC), then in Ultimate they decided to start exploring IPs that are a bit less successful in sales (although in base game we got Monster Hunter, as an AT sure but I think that was an internal decision with thinking about the best way to represent that IP, if they want, they could have add MH as a fighter). I hope that in this FP2 they will concentrate in top 11-20 with more representation like Kingdom Hearts (that is likely it will get in top 10 very soon) and Devil May Cry. I think that Dark Souls can work as a boss just like Monster Hunter, rather than a fighter.

I'm bored so I'll make a prediction of what series that are not represented will have if they get into Smash Bros.

11) Kingdom Hearts - Sora as a playable character
12) Souls - Solaire of Astoria as a mii costume
13) Power Pros - Spirit event
14) Devil May Cry - Dante as a playable character
16) Frogger - Frogger as a mii costume
17) Simple - ... going to ignore this one.
18) Tales - Lloyd as a mii costume
20) Professor Layton - Professor Layton as a mii costume

 

[rychu_supadude]

I can't see much point in selling a Layton Mii Costume when he's already one of the easiest and most satisfying Miis to make tbh. Unless it's to get a sweet music track put in...

 

[Swamp Sensei]

My gut tells me Level 5 won't even be contacted for anything.

Then again Atlus and SNK got in and I would have bet against them before.

 

[Gentlepanda]

When you think like that, Dragon Quest is still the biggest series we got as DLC and the rest was from relatively humble franchises.

Makes one wonder just how likely "big deals" like Crash or Dante are. Depending on the next newcomer, I can speculation focus shifting towards smaller yet influential and popular series.

iirc in a pre-release poll from 2018 conducted by source gaming, the only character to crack top 50 most wanted/popular was banjo while every other FP1 character besides erdrick (teased by vergeben at the time) was completely absent

then, of course, their feb 2020 poll had spring man, the highest-ranked ARMS rep, getting a whopping 25 votes

starting to think we may not know ****

 

[WeirdChillFever]

I’m feeling a return of Rhythm Heaven

 

[Gentlepanda]

anyway based purely on the Numbers and my Gut Feeling i speculate that a bravely rep will be the challenger pack 9 that catches everyone off guard despite nintendo promoting the hell out of bravely default 2

 

[Ramen Tengoku]

I’m feeling a return of Rhythm Heaven

In my dreams...

 

[DutchPichu]

I’m feeling a return of Rhythm Heaven

I'm all in for that! Still my most wanted after all these years

 

[WeirdChillFever]

anyway based purely on the Numbers and my Gut Feeling i speculate that a bravely rep will be the challenger pack 9 that catches everyone off guard despite nintendo promoting the hell out of bravely default 2

View attachment 277006

I can see it happening but that might be because it’s an RPG rep and I’ve been conditioned to see those as more likely for some reason. (The reason probably being that half of the wave 1 DLC was from an RPG)

 

[Speed Weed]

anyway based purely on the Numbers and my Gut Feeling i speculate that a bravely rep will be the challenger pack 9 that catches everyone off guard despite nintendo promoting the hell out of bravely default 2

View attachment 277006

NO

we ALL know that challenger pack 9 is amingo and anyone who says otherwise is a stinky poopoo head

 

[I.D.]

@IsaiahisDopee pic.twitter.com/KyhHlVWivu

— Shreds the wolf (@edgyfox99) July 2, 2020

@IsaiahisDopee He said it was Ok. pic.twitter.com/jxKfX4yiVv

— Shreds the wolf (@edgyfox99) July 2, 2020

Looks like he was serious. Doesn't mean he's right though.

 

[Calamitas]

When you think like that, Dragon Quest is still the biggest series we got as DLC and the rest was from relatively humble franchises.

Makes one wonder just how likely "big deals" like Crash or Dante are. Depending on the next newcomer, I can speculation focus shifting towards smaller yet influential and popular series.

I kinda doubt that speculation will shift to smaller series, even if the next newcomer is not a heavy hitter by any means. I still remember that after E3 last year, people expected Ryu Hayabusa and Doom Guy to be next. Then Terry got revealed, and everyone was like "oh, the Pass has to end on a bang though! Doom Dude or Ryu Hayabusa is definitely next! Or Master Chief!". Cue Byleth. And before we got the general ARMS reveal, people went right back to placing their expectations super high.
Point being, I don't think people will ever stop expecting all these big heavy hitters.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

I kinda doubt that speculation will shift to smaller series, even if the next newcomer is not a heavy hitter by any means. I still remember that after E3 last year, people expected Ryu Hayabusa and Doom Guy to be next. Then Terry got revealed, and everyone was like "oh, the Pass has to end on a bang though! Doom Dude or Ryu Hayabusa is definitely next! Or Master Chief!". Cue Byleth. And before we got the general ARMS reveal, people went right back to placing their expectations super high.
Point being, I don't think people will ever stop expecting all these big heavy hitters.

Ehhhh I remember exactly 1 person who said that who hasn't posted ever since, most people thought the second pass would be the one to open on a high note to secure preorders

 

[Calamitas]

Ehhhh I remember exactly 1 person who said that who hasn't posted ever since, most people thought the second pass would be the one to open on a high note to secure preorders

I mean, yeah, I had a specific example in mind when I talked about the guy who was convinced that the first pass would have to end on a bang. yeet123 I think their username was? Last I checked, he was banned.
Either way, I think he was far from the only one who was expecting a heavy hitter, since people dismissed Sabi's and Vergeben's (ultimately pretty real) kill lists and proclaimed that everyone was fair game again.

 

[3BitSaurus]

Falcom is one of those companies I'm not sure is particularly likely, but I think it's worth keeping an eye out for anyway. They've got an extensive history and have had a good relationship with Nintendo in the Switch era.

Only reason why I'm not too excited for a Falcom rep is because I'm not too confident on my MW for that company.

EDIT: Aaaand images are broken. Again. It's Estelle.