Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[Rie Sonomura]

Still expecting 3 First parties and 3 Third parties for this pass

Perfectly balanced, as all things should be.

Jokes aside, this is what i expect too since there’s supposedly a smaller budget. The third parties probably won’t be heavy hitter popular picks.

 

[Schnee117]

I'd say everybody added in base roster likely was added due to the Ballot (cut vets included) except for Incineroar, Isabelle and Inkling.

Inkling would have been in Smash regardless of the Ballot, and Incineroar was too new, and was had a slot reserved for it. Isabelle was effectively the new mascot of Animal Crossing and the series had grown quite a bit over the years.

I'd say Ken and Richter are exceptions to the ballot as well.
When the ballot started Ryu wasn't even in the game, I don't think he was even datamined at that point either. This is assuming the ballot was super front loaded with results of course but even then, I'm not sure many people would have voted for Ken.
Richter feels like it's more because Simon takes a lot of stuff from Richter's appearances and it's a case of "Yeah who's the real echo *wink*" as mentioned in the showcase. He'd have been overshadowed by Simon and Alucard in the ballot too though Castlevania as a whole did well.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

I'd say Ken and Richter are exceptions to the ballot as well.
When the ballot started Ryu wasn't even in the game, I don't think he was even datamined at that point either. This is assuming the ballot was super front loaded with results of course but even then, I'm not sure many people would have voted for Ken.
Richter feels like it's more because Simon takes a lot of stuff from Richter's appearances and it's a case of "Yeah who's the real echo *wink*" as mentioned in the showcase. He'd have been overshadowed by Simon and Alucard in the ballot too though Castlevania as a whole did well.

Ryu was leaked a little after the ballot went up and I believe Richter's the most popular Belmont in Japan, though we know Alucard overshadowed all other CV options

 

[Garteam]

Now the big question: who'd stand for Hitler in his Spirit?

I'd say Wario. A short German man with a goofy moustache and potbelly works well for him.

 

[frozolloyd]

Perfectly balanced, as all things should be.

Jokes aside, this is what i expect too since there’s supposedly a smaller budget. The third parties probably won’t be heavy hitter popular picks.

It seems I am a bit out of the loop, so quick question for y'all. Does anyone know if Sakurai/Nintendo have ACTUALLY stated that this Fighter Pass has a smaller budget then the previous one, or is this something people are assuming like the whole "Sakurai must be picking from a list thing"? I see this idea mentioned a lot so I am actually curious if I missed an interview or something.

 

[ZelDan]

Yeah but if we count the number of newcomers in Ultimate altogether then we have this.

First Party:
Third Party:

This means for it to be truly fair, we need four third parties characters and one character that is from a first party franchise but also owned by a third party company.

Honestly I don't even think that ratio of 1st party vs. 3rd party is "unfair."

This game is still Nintendo's crossover. There being more Nintendo characters shouldn't be a big deal or shocker.

 

[Eldrake]

Yeah but if we count the number of newcomers in Ultimate altogether then we have this.

First Party:
Third Party:

This means for it to be truly fair, we need four third parties characters and one character that is from a first party franchise but also owned by a third party company.

Imagine if by the end of the second fighter pass, the very last third party character introduced to Smash is Terry Bogard.

 

[Guynamednelson]

It seems I am a bit out of the loop, so quick question for y'all. Does anyone know if Sakurai/Nintendo have ACTUALLY stated that this Fighter Pass has a smaller budget then the previous one, or is this something people are assuming like the whole "Sakurai must be picking from a list thing"? I see this idea mentioned a lot so I am actually curious if I missed an interview or something.

An assumption based on the pass taking longer to complete despite only one more character, plus the opener being from ARMS rather than something that complies with the "They're going for the biggest third-parties" meme.

 

[Speed Weed]

and receive the Boy from Time Twist as free DLC!

jesus christ this is like, what, three satan spirits now?

 

[ALongWistfulSquiggle]

It seems I am a bit out of the loop, so quick question for y'all. Does anyone know if Sakurai/Nintendo have ACTUALLY stated that this Fighter Pass has a smaller budget then the previous one, or is this something people are assuming like the whole "Sakurai must be picking from a list thing"? I see this idea mentioned a lot so I am actually curious if I missed an interview or something.

Along with what Guynamednelson said, Min Min was likely a lower budget character than most by being from Nintendo and reusing assets from her model to the music only having two remixes.

 

[osby]

An assumption based on the pass taking longer to complete despite only one more character, plus the opener being from ARMS rather than something that complies with the "They're going for the biggest third-parties" meme.

The first one is definitely the result of having a smaller dev team. Not sure if that necessarily means less budget for licensing. As for the second, it's too early to say anything about the rest of the pass.

And let's be honest, with how much ATLUS puts him in crossovers, Joker wasn't indicative of an high bugdet pass, either.

 

[Nekoo]

And let's be honest, with how much ATLUS puts him in crossovers, Joker wasn't indicative of an high bugdet pass, either.

To be fair. The beginning of Joker's uprising appearance in Crossovers started after he got in smash

 

[SKX31]

An assumption based on the pass taking longer to complete despite only one more character, plus the opener being from ARMS rather than something that complies with the "They're going for the biggest third-parties" meme.

However, there's also this quote from Sakurai to consider:

"Please note that what you're about to see is still from the development version. Integrating ARMS into Super Smash Bros. Ultimate was a very hard thing to do."

With the header underneath being "There may be differences in the final version" suggesting that there was a lot of beta testing and bug-fixing that went into Min Min from May 2nd until release.

With now finished and released, it's certainly possible that more "straighforward" characters could follow and release at the standard rate. We'll just have to see if FP7's revealed in July or August before passing judgement IMHO.

 

[Evil Trapezium]

Honestly I don't even think that ratio of 1st party vs. 3rd party is "unfair."

This game is still Nintendo's crossover. There being more Nintendo characters shouldn't be a big deal or shocker.

Yeah I know but it would be cool to have an equal amount of third party characters.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

Papagenos latest video regarding speculation.

Richter feels like it's more because Simon takes a lot of stuff from Richter's appearances and it's a case of "Yeah who's the real echo *wink*" as mentioned in the showcase. He'd have been overshadowed by Simon and Alucard in the ballot too though Castlevania as a whole did well.

Also factor in Richter's popularity in Japan.

 

[ZelDan]

Yeah I know but it would be cool to have an equal amount of third party characters.

I wouldn't be against the third party newcomers being equal to the first party newcomers either.

That said I wouldn't be against first parties outnumbering third parties either. I just want cool video game characters (some more than others), and there still Nintendo ones just as there are third party ones.

 

[GoodGrief741]

jesus christ this is like, what, three satan spirits now?

Not only do we get another Satan Spirit, but also a post-apocalyptic Tokyo stage, therefore officially making any SMT content redundant.

 

[Calamitas]

Papagenos latest video regarding speculation.

Does he even say anything of value that hasn't been brought up yet, or is it just more of the stuff that has been brought up already time and time again here?

 

[SharkLord]

Honestly I don't even think that ratio of 1st party vs. 3rd party is "unfair."

This game is still Nintendo's crossover. There being more Nintendo characters shouldn't be a big deal or shocker.

I feel like everyone's too hung up on the big hype third-parties. If it's a celebration of all of gaming, why does Nintendo get so much and everyone else so little? And why are Smash requests not more focused on big, influential games like Assassin's Creed and Resident Evil? When games as big as those are glossed over, the "Gaming hall of fame" argument looses a lot of it's weight.
The way I see it, Smash is just Nintendo getting together with their friends and having fun. Sometimes they're big names, sometimes they're literally who's, but in the end, it's not about cramming every big name there is, or sticking it to one certain subset of fans with a toxic vocal minority, or whatever. It's just about the enjoyment of the game.

 

[Cosmic77]

Does he even say anything of value that hasn't been brought up yet, or is it just more of the stuff that has been brought up already time and time again here?

It's essentially almost 10 minutes of him talking about Min Min's Spirit.

If you want me to spare you the time, Spirits don't deconfirm.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

1st Party: ()

3rd Party:

The gap is big. As a whole its still an Nintendo game.

 

[ChunkySlugger72]

1st Party: ()

3rd:

The gap is big. As a whole its still an Nintendo game.

Exactly, I see "Some" fans complaining that their are way too many 3rd Party characters being added to Smash and that it's losing it's main focus of being a Nintendo fighter.

Hell the remainder of the 2nd season fighter pass can be 3rd party and the 1st party roster is still more than double that, Which is why I'm hoping we still get a couple of more major 3rd party characters to even further push and expand the crossover of Ultimate.

At the end of the day, It's still a Nintendo game at it's core.

 

[SNEKeater]

Smash is naturally a Nintendo game. But it's easy to see that in the last years Smash has received a good amount of 3rd party characters. Of course there's gonna be more Nintendo characters because 1. it's a Nintendo game and 2. Smash didn't see it's first third party fighter until Brawl, the third installment of the series. Of course there's gonna be an "unfair" ratio.

But I think it's pretty clear that Nintendo and/or Sakurai had been very happy with third party inclusions for one reason or another, what would explain the rise in not only 3rd party characters but also 3rd party content in general.

I mean, Smash was already a gaming crossover before Ultimate or Smash 4 DLC's, because Nintendo it's an important part of this industry. A fighting game featuring multiple Nintendo IP's is a Nintendo focused crossover, obviously, but that doesn't mean it isn't a gaming crossover or a celebration of gaming. This and the fact that Smash has been very friendly and open lately to 3rd party content in general aren't mutually exclusive.

Honestly, I think everyone gains from this. People who wants more first parties will still receive first party content, and people who maybe prefers third party characters knows that Smash is gonna still seeing new third party content in the future.

Imagine if by the end of the second fighter pass, the very last third party character introduced to Smash is Terry Bogard.

I don't see anything wrong with this.

 

[Faso115]

This is probably the only smash related thing that isn't on fire because of the controversies. Cool, need to clear my head a little

I assume if there wasn't any announcement today for a Nintendo direct then the claims of a potential direct tomorrow are unlikely unless shadowdropped.

The waiting continues.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

This is probably the only smash related thing that isn't on fire because of the controversies. Cool, need to clear my head a little

I assume if there wasn't any announcement today for a Nintendo direct then the claims of a potential direct tomorrow are unlikely unless shadowdropped.

The waiting continues.

according to that HotGirlVideos69 person, there'll be a direct on the 6th:

This chick has consistently been right on stuff LMAO.

And she’s gotten June 12th & 19th right. (Paper Mario was the overview trailer)

Next is July 6th & 14th?.... pic.twitter.com/pX2FvgOCGB

— GamesCage - Hype Guy (@GamesCage_) June 19, 2020

yes, thats unironically their username. probably to throw off suspicion

but anyway if there is a direct i'd count on it to be next week or the week after

 

[Aetheri]

according to that HotGirlVideos69 person, there'll be a direct on the 6th:

This chick has consistently been right on stuff LMAO.

And she’s gotten June 12th & 19th right. (Paper Mario was the overview trailer)

Next is July 6th & 14th?.... pic.twitter.com/pX2FvgOCGB

— GamesCage - Hype Guy (@GamesCage_) June 19, 2020

yes, thats unironically their username. probably to throw off suspicion

but anyway if there is a direct i'd count on it to be next week or the week after

If Nintendo catches wind of this they'll intentionally delay the announcements by a day so they'd be more unpredictable.

 

[DarthEnderX]

I'm not gonna lie, based on that best selling list, a DLC season with Jill Valentine, Monster Hunter, Heihachi, Sora and Dante sounds like a pretty damn solid(if Capcom-heavy) selection.

 

[N3ON]

according to that HotGirlVideos69 person, there'll be a direct on the 6th:

This chick has consistently been right on stuff LMAO.

And she’s gotten June 12th & 19th right. (Paper Mario was the overview trailer)

Next is July 6th & 14th?.... pic.twitter.com/pX2FvgOCGB

— GamesCage - Hype Guy (@GamesCage_) June 19, 2020

yes, thats unironically their username. probably to throw off suspicion

but anyway if there is a direct i'd count on it to be next week or the week after

If she's right (which she both has and hasn't been) there'll be something on the sixth. Not necessarily a Direct.

 

[Calamitas]

according to that HotGirlVideos69 person, there'll be a direct on the 6th:

This chick has consistently been right on stuff LMAO.

And she’s gotten June 12th & 19th right. (Paper Mario was the overview trailer)

Next is July 6th & 14th?.... pic.twitter.com/pX2FvgOCGB

— GamesCage - Hype Guy (@GamesCage_) June 19, 2020

yes, thats unironically their username. probably to throw off suspicion

but anyway if there is a direct i'd count on it to be next week or the week after

Could mean nothing, but it's certainly worth keeping an eye open for.
Does that original post necessarily imply that there'll be a Direct on the 6th, though? Because it just seems to be hinting that there's something there, not necessarily a Direct.

 

[CannonStreak]

Could mean nothing, but it's certainly worth keeping an eye open for.
Does that original post necessarily imply that there'll be a Direct on the 6th, though? Because it just seems to be hinting that there's something there, not necessarily a Direct.

I think they meant an announcement for a Direct, not a Direct itself until the next day or two from there.

 

[The Rhythm Theif]

OK, I remembered my password now. I accidentally forgot it. XD

 

[AceAttorney9000]

I think they meant an announcement for a Direct, not a Direct itself until the next day or two from there.

Yeah, I saw that tweet and thought that, if it was specifically meant to hint at a Direct, it would be weird for a Direct to air on a Monday... then I remembered that Directs are usually announced a day or two in advance. Always best to keep that in mind when discussing Direct dates.

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

With the positive reception to Min Min, it's easy to forget that basically nobody was predicting an ARMS rep in FP2. I think most of Nintendo's picks are going to be popular characters, but from outside the endless circlejerk of speculation. Trying to predict their methods feels like an exercise in futility, and I've given up on putting my predictions behind any character in particular.

You know who's a real popular first party character?

Feeling pretty confident on Rex rn.

 

[MarioRaccoon]

Souls is honestly ripe for the picking when it comes to Mii costumes. There's so many different armour sets in the game to pick from like the Elite Knight set, the Artorias set, Solaire's set, the Catalina set, Havel's set and so on. You could make a whole Mii Costume wave of them if you could overlook all of them being swordfighters lol

I would totally pay $6 for a Dark Souls pack that includes a stage (like Firelink Shrine or Anor Londo), Boss Fight (Gwyn? Ornstein and Smough?), Solaire AT, 15 songs (Boss themes are really great, doesn’t need a remix), 6 Mii Costumes sets (Solaire, Gwyn, Cinder, Ornstein, Artorias and Catarina) and a spirit board. Boss Fight, Mii Costumes and AT would compensate the lack of character (that is what people most care).

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

It seems I am a bit out of the loop, so quick question for y'all. Does anyone know if Sakurai/Nintendo have ACTUALLY stated that this Fighter Pass has a smaller budget then the previous one, or is this something people are assuming like the whole "Sakurai must be picking from a list thing"? I see this idea mentioned a lot so I am actually curious if I missed an interview or something.

From what I understand, this is based off of a statement Sakurai made late FP1 saying that the team and budget were getting smaller as development on the Pass concluded. No definitive statement on the budget of FP2 has been made to my knowledge.

 

[SharkLord]

You know who's a real popular first party character?

Feeling pretty confident on Rex rn.

And then we get Nia and Dromarch instead, just because Sakurai is a cat person.

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

And then we get Nia and Dromarch instead, just because Sakurai is a cat person.

You joke, but I'd be perfectly fine with Nia getting in.

Serves Rex right for friendzoning her.

 

[ROBnWatch]

Exactly, I see "Some" fans complaining that their are way too many 3rd Party characters being added to Smash and that it's losing it's main focus of being a Nintendo fighter.

Hell the remainder of the 2nd season fighter pass can be 3rd party and the 1st party roster is still more than double that, Which is why I'm hoping we still get a couple of more major 3rd party characters to even further push and expand the crossover of Ultimate.

At the end of the day, It's still a Nintendo game at it's core.

I think one of the problems is that, for people who would rather see first parties, they’ve been few and far between during DLC periods. For those who are fine with some third parties but prefer first parties, they had to wait nearly a full year between Plant and the next first party, Byleth, who was still a disappointment for some who felt it was bloating the FE roster even more. While you may know a third party here or there (like Banjo for instance), when the entire speculation scene shifts to characters you don’t know/care about, and you keep getting characters you don’t know/care about between the few first parties, those who want them are gonna feel left out. A solution to this would be simply spreading out the third parties. Keep the ones you have, but release 1-2 first parties in between each of them. That way speculation isn’t forced one way or the other, and those who prefer one way or the other aren’t left waiting for so long till the next first/third party.

 

[Jomosensual]

I'm not gonna lie, based on that best selling list, a DLC season with Jill Valentine, Monster Hunter, Heihachi, Sora and Dante sounds like a pretty damn solid(if Capcom-heavy) selection.

Yeah, if this is the pass we get it would be hard for me to complain. Only one I don't really want there is Monster Hunter but if the pass ends up being 5 characters I'm happy for and one I'm not that's about as good as anyone can ask for

 

[Cutie Gwen]

It seems I am a bit out of the loop, so quick question for y'all. Does anyone know if Sakurai/Nintendo have ACTUALLY stated that this Fighter Pass has a smaller budget then the previous one, or is this something people are assuming like the whole "Sakurai must be picking from a list thing"? I see this idea mentioned a lot so I am actually curious if I missed an interview or something.

No but as mentioned, the fact that it'll take an entire year longer despite only including 1 more character says enough and the fact that it's common for dev teams to shrink when doing DLC, it saves budget because that's less salaries and you can have the devs no longer on DLC work on a different project