Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[RileyXY1]

You think every character is unlikely at this point.

Well, Geno is hardly ever talked about except in hardcore Smash circles for some reason and there's other Square Enix reps to choose from, like Lara Croft, 2B, or Sora.

 

[Enigma735]

Yikes a lot of people had a lot to say about my CacoMallow point

Except all the mounting evidence that goes against with very little if any that actually supports it.

What evidence is their going against it? Not one mod has been ever able to match the quality as the ones shown on the leak, and I feel if this were a mod, someone would have came out saying it was fake and allowing people to download the mods. Why would someone go through the trouble of modding something all for the sake of getting people's hopes up?

No offense, but if a video leak is up on YouTube for 7 months and still isn't taken down, the only thing that's real is the amount of denial people have about it.

Fair enough and while I don't 100% think its real, you do have to admit the other stuff I mentioned could mean something in Geno's favor

Well, Geno is hardly ever talked about except in hardcore Smash circles for some reason and there's other Square Enix reps to choose from, like Lara Croft, 2B, or Sora.

Same with Ridley, K. Rool and Banjo & Kazooie. Geno is a popular request to the point where even Sakurai is aware of the demand. Also, I would say Steve or Master Chief could have made sense for Microsoft since they are the most iconic Microsoft characters, yet they went with Banjo & Kazooie, characters from an IP they do nothing with, characters Phil Spencer mentioned by name and how he was aware of the popularity, and of course, they were the fan picks. I feel like sometimes people underestimate just how far fan popularity can go.

 

[Schnee117]

Why would someone go through the trouble of modding something all for the sake of getting people's hopes up?

I dunno, why would someone go through all the trouble of making the grinch hoax just to get people's hopes up?

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Why would someone go through the trouble of modding something all for the sake of getting people's hopes up?

Artsy Omni & that guy who made the Grinch Leak: "Allow us to introduce ourselves."

 

[Enigma735]

I dunno, why would someone go through all the trouble of making the grinch hoax just to get people's hopes up?

Artsy Omni & that guy who made the Grinch Leak: "Allow us to introduce ourselves."

All I am saying about this leak is that I don't think we should toss it to the side just yet. I do acknowledge it could be fake, but their is also a possibility it could be real as well. I will say if these outfits don't come with at least CP8, then I will be 100% confident that its fake and that is also when I will toss the leak out

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

What evidence is their going against it? Not one mod has been ever able to match the quality as the ones shown on the leak, and I feel if this were a mod, someone would have came out saying it was fake and allowing people to download the mods. Why would someone go through the trouble of modding something all for the sake of getting people's hopes up?

That's the thing. They can't come out and claim it. Because nobody can replicate the mod itself perfectly and prove they made it alone. So downloading it isn't any better. Because they can't remake it, they wouldn't be able to make a video showing how they did it. They didn't come out with it before because they failed to recreate it to make a new video.

They literally can't do anything to prove it, so there's no point in doing anything but leaving it alone.

It also would take a massively long time for people to get close to the quality of it, and people gave up months ago. Never mind the video is potato quality so it's extremely difficult to get close to its bad quality picture. So of course nobody came close. It was an awful video to try and compare to. People already proved that the hats with jiggle physics are completely moddable, which was the only decent point to give the leak at the time.

As for it not being taken down, Nintendo only ignores video stuff if it's fake. They've taken down every leak possible, even their own video leaks with a perfect track record. A literal image they don't always take down, but gameplay videos(again, this includes their own they accidentally have up), they make sure it's gone. They're hyper consistent with it. They would not have left it up in any real scenario. They can't. A video leak is a breach of an NDA from an employee who took the video. Now here's the key thing; other companies trust Nintendo to remove any video leaks they find, since it breaks NDA in the first place. This outright means that companies cannot trust them to keep the NDA factor in check. It's meaningless if you don't try to catch leakers or actually bother to enforce the NDA in itself. That's why Nintendo always enforces their NDA's. They've even fired a person who leaked they had a character's voice, which shows how adamant they are to combating leaks. They've also make Byleth next to impossible to find out, made sure barely anyone knew that Ultimate was going to have all veterans(no leaker could even say that, as they only knew a slew of characters. Contrast Smash 4 where the base roster was leaked among two users, and they didn't go as hard on that one outside of the video). They've gotten tougher on leaks since then, especially since Sakurai really really hates leaks and enjoys surprising people. He actually got miffed that people put the cutscenes from the SSE online, and that's one reason he outright remove cutscenes from 4 as an option, neutering Adventure Mode quite a bit. The other was how much time they took, of course, but he wants people to find out by true surprise.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

Same with Ridley, K. Rool and Banjo & Kazooie. Geno is a popular request to the point where even Sakurai is aware of the demand. Also, I would say Steve or Master Chief could have made sense for Microsoft since they are the most iconic Microsoft characters, yet they went with Banjo & Kazooie, characters from an IP they do nothing with, characters Phil Spencer mentioned by name and how he was aware of the popularity, and of course, they were the fan picks. I feel like sometimes people underestimate just how far fan popularity can go.

: He's too big!!!!

: Too irrelevant!!!!

: Too impossible!!!!

What would Geno be considered? Too obscure?

Oddly enough an part of me is kinda feeling that Geno could very well be FP7 especially to coincide with the whole Mario anniversary and the fan demand he gets.

 

[Enigma735]

That's the thing. They can't come out and claim it. Because nobody can replicate the mod itself perfectly and prove they made it alone. So downloading it isn't any better. Because they can't remake it, they wouldn't be able to make a video showing how they did it. They didn't come out with it before because they failed to recreate it to make a new video.

They literally can't do anything to prove it, so there's no point in doing anything but leaving it alone.

It also would take a massively long time for people to get close to the quality of it, and people gave up months ago. Never mind the video is potato quality so it's extremely difficult to get close to its bad quality picture. So of course nobody came close. It was an awful video to try and compare to. People already proved that the hats with jiggle physics are completely moddable, which was the only decent point to give the leak at the time.

As for it not being taken down, Nintendo only ignores video stuff if it's fake. They've taken down every leak possible, even their own video leaks with a perfect track record. A literal image they don't always take down, but gameplay videos(again, this includes their own they accidentally have up), they make sure it's gone. They're hyper consistent with it. They would not have left it up in any real scenario. They can't. A video leak is a breach of an NDA from an employee who took the video. Now here's the key thing; other companies trust Nintendo to remove any video leaks they find, since it breaks NDA in the first place. This outright means that companies cannot trust them to keep the NDA factor in check. It's meaningless if you don't try to catch leakers or actually bother to enforce the NDA in itself. That's why Nintendo always enforces their NDA's. They've even fired a person who leaked they had a character's voice, which shows how adamant they are to combating leaks. They've also make Byleth next to impossible to find out, made sure barely anyone knew that Ultimate was going to have all veterans(no leaker could even say that, as they only knew a slew of characters. Contrast Smash 4 where the base roster was leaked among two users, and they didn't go as hard on that one outside of the video). They've gotten tougher on leaks since then, especially since Sakurai really really hates leaks and enjoys surprising people. He actually got miffed that people put the cutscenes from the SSE online, and that's one reason he outright remove cutscenes from 4 as an option, neutering Adventure Mode quite a bit. The other was how much time they took, of course, but he wants people to find out by true surprise.

I will admit, you actually do make a great point about the fact that Nintendo has yet to take down the leak, and that is definitely the one red flag I see in the leak. To me, however, the most convincing thing has to be that the leak is in debug mode, which was the same thing shown in the Ken leak.

 

[Nanami77]

What is the general consensus on what day the ARMS presentation will most likely drop?

 

[cosmicB]

George... COSTANZA???

that’s gotta be a troll leak

It was just an example. I meant that's how it was laid out.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

What is the general consensus on what day the ARMS presentation will most likely drop?

I expect Tuesday now as that's suppose to be the date of its 3rd year anniversary.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

I will admit, you actually do make a great point about the fact that Nintendo has yet to take down the leak, and that is definitely the one red flag I see in the leak. To me, however, the most convincing thing has to be that the leak is in debug mode, which was the same thing shown in the Ken leak.

To be fair, Smash has already been hacked. They can replicate that just as easily as any other mod.

That said, it sucks too. Nintendo killed the leak by doing nothing. If they took it down under the guise of it being a mod(but didn't specify why), it'd be plausible. I would've liked to have those costumes too. At the very least, the costumes are still possible at some point, but it won't be the ones we saw.

 

[RileyXY1]

Same with Ridley, K. Rool and Banjo & Kazooie. Geno is a popular request to the point where even Sakurai is aware of the demand. Also, I would say Steve or Master Chief could have made sense for Microsoft since they are the most iconic Microsoft characters, yet they went with Banjo & Kazooie, characters from an IP they do nothing with, characters Phil Spencer mentioned by name and how he was aware of the popularity, and of course, they were the fan picks. I feel like sometimes people underestimate just how far fan popularity can go.

Except fan popularity is not everything, and Square Enix has plenty of more popular, recent characters that they can easily add to Smash.

 

[Sari]

What is the general consensus on what day the ARMS presentation will most likely drop?

Things are shaping up for next week, most likely the 16th.

The New Game+ Expo taking place the week after really makes me think the Nintendo announcements won't be then. Nintendo has all next week to themselves so it'd be perfect to drop some news during then.

 

[Enigma735]

Except fan popularity is not everything, and Square Enix has plenty of more popular, recent characters that they can easily add to Smash.

*I personally don't think Sora is getting in due to KH's heavy ties to Disney. I'm not saying it will never happen, just that I personally find it unlikely.
*Nier has not been on a Nintendo system and while its not a rule, its definitely a big hurdle 2B may need to face.
*Tomb Raider is very unpopular in Japan and while Lara Croft is an iconic female character, Japan just doesn't see her that way.
*Square pays zero attention to Chrono Trigger nowadays so Crono seems pretty unlikely.
*I doubt we will be getting anymore characters from Final Fantasy Or Dragon Quest.

Really, it seems like Geno has the best shot out of all of these characters in my opinion. He has the fan popularity, has been acknowledged by Square and Sakurai, and I already stated the things going in favor of Geno.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

I thought I heard Disney was okay with Sora being in Smash? At least that's what I thought...

 

[Perkilator]

I thought I heard Disney was okay with Sora being in Smash? At least that's what I thought...

Yeah, and that still holds true right now. Only way to see for real is whether or not he actually makes it.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

*Nier has not been on a Nintendo system and while its not a rule, its definitely a big hurdle 2B may need to face.

Does that mean you're someone who thinks Persona Q2 had a factor in Joker getting in?

 

[Enigma735]

I thought I heard Disney was okay with Sora being in Smash? At least that's what I thought...

I don't really think Disney would be the problem, but moreso Sakurai's opinions on Kingdom Hearts. With KH's heavy ties to Disney, I could easily see Nintendo and Sakurai turn Sora down if he feels he can't represent KH properly.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Except fan popularity is not everything, and Square Enix has plenty of more popular, recent characters that they can easily add to Smash.

Fan popularity has played a big role in the roster of Ultimate.

• Both Belmonts were added due to the ballot, with Castlevania being highly popular.
• Isabelle is partially due to this. She become the mascot due to the popularity, and she got in because she's the mascot(but let's be real, she got tons of ballot votes too).
• Dark Samus and Chrom were confirmed for popularity reasons(it is not clear if Sakurai means the ballot or other polls)
• Daisy is pretty much only because of popularity. She had no reason to be added otherwise.
• King K. Rool and Ridley were also confirmed due to the ballot.
• Banjo-Kazooie is directly popularity(and it did help they were an active product, as it was easy to say yes as long as it could be advertised. It's not a coincidence Sakurai outright told people to go to Xbox).

That's a lot of popularity-based characters. And these aren't the guesswork-based ones either. Ones like Ken, Terry, and Hero likely got their own set of votes, but had more to them than that. Terry is hard to say, as they was recent re-releases of note. But the lack of new games makes it sound like it was to appeal to SNK fans.

You have ones where popularity couldn't play a role as is. Piranha Plant, Byleth, Joker, Incineroar, ARMS character. I think I covered everyone by now?

 

[Michael the Spikester]

I don't really think Disney would be the problem, but moreso Sakurai's opinions on Kingdom Hearts. With KH's heavy ties to Disney, I could easily see Nintendo and Sakurai turn Sora down if he feels he can't represent KH properly.

I find that kind of hard to believe given Sora is as of current one of the most requested characters.

 

[Enigma735]

Does that mean you're someone who thinks Persona Q2 had a factor in Joker getting in?

Oh most definitely not, in fact, I think that is pretty stupid of most people to think Joker got included due to Persona Q2. BUT, Shin Megami Tensei, Persona's spin-off franchise, has heavy ties to Nintendo so the history is still there.

Again, I acknowledge it isn't a rule, but just a small hurdle she may need to face.

 

[Perkilator]

I don't really think Disney would be the problem, but moreso Sakurai's opinions on Kingdom Hearts. With KH's heavy ties to Disney, I could easily see Nintendo and Sakurai turn Sora down if he feels he can't represent KH properly.

Which, without sounding mean, I personally think is huckleybuck. There's a plethora of original content specific to Kingdom Hearts (characters, songs, even WORLDS), and Sakurai would have to be crazy not to gravitate towards that (which is what I normally do).

 

[Michael the Spikester]

I would also go on to say that Sora is Geno's only competition.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

I don't really think Disney would be the problem, but moreso Sakurai's opinions on Kingdom Hearts. With KH's heavy ties to Disney, I could easily see Nintendo and Sakurai turn Sora down if he feels he can't represent KH properly.

I'd say it's more Disney would charge too much instead. Sakurai cares about representing what the series is known for. This is even seen with DQ, with the monsters being NPC's in more than one way. The Disney content is important. Nintendo trusts Sakurai's thing. It does help those designs are game-only, and while it'd obvious open a crazy door for people, he'd be more interested in accuracy than going for only the OC's simply because it technically has a non-game mention. We're talking about cameos, not playable appearances, too. So he's not making any kind of exception either.

It doesn't mean Sakurai can't deny Sora due to these factors either. Also, Nintendo would be suggesting the character in the first place, so they wouldn't "turn him down". Only Sakurai or Disney could at that point.

 

[Trevenant]

Well, Geno is hardly ever talked about except in hardcore Smash circles for some reason and there's other Square Enix reps to choose from, like Lara Croft, 2B, or Sora.

Aren't hard-core smash circles literally the only place Geno is discussed? A casual who doesn't pay much attention to Smash would probably know nothing about him aside from that one spirit they saw a few times

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

Oh most definitely not, in fact, I think that is pretty stupid of most people to think Joker got included due to Persona Q2. BUT, Shin Megami Tensei, Persona's spin-off franchise, has heavy ties to Nintendo so the history is still there.

Again, I acknowledge it isn't a rule, but just a small hurdle she may need to face.

By that logic, the fact that Square already has reps in Smash, and Platinum Games (the studio who helped make Automata) being incredibly close friends with Nintendo, to the point where Nintendo funds Bayo games and PG does a Star Fox game, can really help 2B.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

*Tomb Raider is very unpopular in Japan and while Lara Croft is an iconic female character, Japan just doesn't see her that way.

I'd like a source on this one.

 

[Enigma735]

I find that kind of hard to believe given Sora is as of current one of the most requested characters.

I get Sora has popularity much like Geno, but I can see Sakurai turn down Sora for similar reasons he turned down Ridley. Sakurai acknowledged the fact that Ridley has popularity, but just couldn't make him work with a size that fits in Smash and I can see a similar response to that could be used for Sora. I could totally see Sakurai want Sora in the game, but just couldn't represent KH well without the Disney references.

I do believe Sora will get included eventually, much like Ridley, but I am not sure Ultimate is the time for that.

Which, without sounding mean, I personally think is huckleybuck. There's a plethora of original content specific to Kingdom Hearts (characters, songs, even WORLDS), and Sakurai would have to be crazy not to gravitate towards that (which is what I normally do).

While their are plenty of original characters and locations from KH, Disney still plays a huge role in KH and is a huge selling point for the franchise. Without that representation, I feel like Sora and Kingdom Hearts in Smash would be a shell of its former self. That is just me though.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

I get Sora has popularity much like Geno, but I can see Sakurai turn down Sora for similar reasons he turned down Ridley. Sakurai acknowledged the fact that Ridley has popularity, but just couldn't make him work with a size that fits in Smash and I can see a similar response to that could be used for Sora. I could totally see Sakurai want Sora in the game, but just couldn't represent KH well without the Disney references.

I do believe Sora will get included eventually, much like Ridley, but I am not sure Ultimate is the time for that.

As mentioned above. Kingdom Hearts has enough content that no Disney stuff needs to be used although I do understand Disney is what makes Kingdom Hearts what it is. I still wouldn't rule him out.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

BUT, Shin Megami Tensei, Persona's spin-off franchise,

.......There is something very wrong about this sentence...

 

[Enigma735]

By that logic, the fact that Square already has reps in Smash, and Platinum Games (the studio who helped make Automata) being incredibly close friends with Nintendo, to the point where Nintendo funds Bayo games and PG does a Star Fox game, can really help 2B.

I really don't think this is a rule and is just a simple observation, but I personally feel every character has at least some barrier of getting included and if their is one barrier 2B has, its definitely the lack of Nintendo history. I do acknowledge this could mean nothing though.

As mentioned above. Kingdom Hearts has enough content that no Disney stuff needs to be used although I do understand Disney is what makes Kingdom Hearts what it is. I still wouldn't rule him out.

I do think Sora has a chance, but compared to other Square characters and especially Geno, then I don't think he is as likely compared to them.

.......There is something very wrong about this sentence...

View attachment 274521

Thank you for the correction. My point still stands though.

 

[GoodGrief741]

What evidence is their going against it? Not one mod has been ever able to match the quality as the ones shown on the leak, and I feel if this were a mod, someone would have came out saying it was fake and allowing people to download the mods. Why would someone go through the trouble of modding something all for the sake of getting

The leak isn't fake because if it was fake the leaker would have said so, after all people who make up fake leaks don't do so with the intention of tricking people. People actually make fake leaks to [REDACTED]

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

I really don't think this is a rule and is just a simple observation, but I personally feel every character has at least some barrier of getting included and if their is one barrier 2B has, its definitely the lack of Nintendo history. I do acknowledge this could mean nothing though.

What's Geno's, then?

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Which, without sounding mean, I personally think is huckleybuck.

Please. It's impossible to sound mean whilist using the word huckleybuck.

What's Geno's, then?

Irrelevance.

 

[Trevenant]

Except fan popularity is not everything, and Square Enix has plenty of more popular, recent characters that they can easily add to Smash.

This statement could pretty much be applied to Microsoft too. Banjo Kazooie was fead, Chief would have broke the internet as would have Steve as the former is from one of the most iconic game series of all time and is a competitor's mascot while the latter is the main character of one of the best selling games of all time who were also quite popular but Steve allowing for the type of creative moveset Sakurai would die for. Chief probably would have killed the internet more but in the end they still went for Banjo and Kazooie as the first Microsoft character despite all the advantages the other two had which I just outlined. Let's be honest if BK weren't so requested, they would have never made it in. That does speak quite a lot about what fan demand can do. It's pretty much down to Nintendo to realise the popularity and negotiate with Square to get him in. I'm not saying or thinking Geno is a lock or too likely btw

 

[Swamp Sensei]

What's Geno's, then?

• Irrelevance to the modern market
• Irrelevance to their home series as a whole
• Minor character from the third most important Mario game released in 1996
• Owned by another company
• Stiff competition from their home series and the other franchises

Things going for Geno are moveset potential, a heck ton of popularity and developer recognition.

That might be enough to get him in, but I'm not sure.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

at what time was the joker + stage builder video shadowdropped? anyone remember?

 

[YeppersPeppers]

at what time was the joker + stage builder video shadowdropped? anyone remember?

9PM EST, I believe, so 30 minutes from now.

 

[Trevenant]

at what time was the joker + stage builder video shadowdropped? anyone remember?

I heard it was about 12 am gmt where I am but I'm not certain