Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[Megadoomer]

Irrelevance.

Does that even count as a barrier anymore? To me, the inclusion of K. Rool and Banjo/Kazooie (at the very least - there are quite a few older examples) seemed like a clear indication that being seen as irrelevant isn't going to stop a character from getting in.

 

[RileyXY1]

This statement could pretty much be applied to Microsoft too. Banjo Kazooie was fead, Chief would have broke the internet as would have Steve as the former is from one of the most iconic game series of all time and is a competitor's mascot while the latter is the main character of one of the best selling games of all time who were also quite popular but Steve allowing for the type of creative moveset Sakurai would die for. Chief probably would have killed the internet more but in the end they still went for Banjo and Kazooie as the first Microsoft character despite all the advantages the other two had which I just outlined. Let's be honest if BK weren't so requested, they would have never made it in. That does speak quite a lot about what fan demand can do. It's pretty much down to Nintendo to realise the popularity and negotiate with Square to get him in. I'm not saying or thinking Geno is a lock or too likely btw

Square Enix might not think the same way Microsoft does.

 

[cosmicB]

*I personally don't think Sora is getting in due to KH's heavy ties to Disney. I'm not saying it will never happen, just that I personally find it unlikely.
*Nier has not been on a Nintendo system and while its not a rule, its definitely a big hurdle 2B may need to face.
*Tomb Raider is very unpopular in Japan and while Lara Croft is an iconic female character, Japan just doesn't see her that way.
*Square pays zero attention to Chrono Trigger nowadays so Crono seems pretty unlikely.
*I doubt we will be getting anymore characters from Final Fantasy Or Dragon Quest.

Really, it seems like Geno has the best shot out of all of these characters in my opinion. He has the fan popularity, has been acknowledged by Square and Sakurai, and I already stated the things going in favor of Geno.

Counterpoint: Nier Automata alongside Persona 5 was one of Sakurai's favorite games while developing Ultimate and there had been rumblings about a meeting taking place. He's shown more public acknowledgement for that than he has Geno as far as actual enjoyment of game origin goes.

 

[Enigma735]

What's Geno's, then?

I will admit, as a Geno supporter, Geno is an obscure character from one Mario game from over 20 years ago. But the things going for him are leagues much more then what their is against him, and fan popularity is one of the biggest pros a character can have in order to have a decent shot.

 

[Trevenant]

Square Enix might not think the same way Microsoft does.

Key word there being might. If Nintendo goes for Geno and Square says no but offers them a more profitable character instead to Square themselves, they'd probably pick neither.

 

[RileyXY1]

I will admit, as a Geno supporter, Geno is an obscure character from one Mario game from over 20 years ago. But the things going for him are leagues much more then what their is against him, and fan popularity is one of the biggest pros a character can have in order to have a decent shot.

There's also the matter of him being a Spirit, and that matters to some people.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Square Enix might not think the same way Microsoft does.

You mean SE would want to promote a character from a game coming out?

Cause that's pretty much a core thing for Microsoft. It's, again, not a coincidence that Sakurai outright advertised the Xbox during the Banjo-Kazooie presentation.

If this means anything, it means that a rerelease of SMRPG is the bare requirement. And that makes some sense, actually. They want to make money off the character, and they make more money with a downloadable re-release that costs money. SE capitalized heavily on new downloadable DQ games during the time Hero was announced, not long before his announcement too. Business does matter. ...And it mattered for Microsoft too.

So honestly? I'd say they think pretty clearly the same way they do. Both of their characters were added with a lot of advertising in mind. It's also no coincidence Banjo & Kazooie got a ton of merchandise around the same when they were added to Smash. It's about capitalizing off your product, and that's both of each company's M.O.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

I will admit, as a Geno supporter, Geno is an obscure character from one Mario game from over 20 years ago. But the things going for him are leagues much more then what their is against him, and fan popularity is one of the biggest pros a character can have in order to have a decent shot.

I'd actually argue the bigger pro is developer acknowledgement.

Not many characters can do that.

 

[Guynamednelson]

There's also the matter of him being a Spirit, and that matters to some people.

Those some people might not be Nintendo employees who think their preferred fighter choices are more important than already being represented.

 

[Trevenant]

There's also the matter of him being a Spirit, and that matters to some people.

Is that still a rule being used seriously. It matters to some people sure, but logically it doesn't really matter.

 

[RileyXY1]

You mean SE would want to promote a character from a game coming out?

Cause that's pretty much a core thing for Microsoft. It's, again, not a coincidence that Sakurai outright advertised the Xbox during the Banjo-Kazooie presentation.

If this means anything, it means that a rerelease of SMRPG is the bare requirement. And that makes some sense, actually. They want to make money off the character, and they make more money with a downloadable re-release that costs money. SE capitalized heavily on new downloadable DQ games during the time Hero was announced, not long before his announcement too. Business does matter. ...And it mattered for Microsoft too.

So honestly? I'd say they think pretty clearly the same way they do. Both of their characters were added with a lot of advertising in mind. It's also no coincidence Banjo & Kazooie got a ton of merchandise around the same when they were added to Smash. It's about capitalizing off your product, and that's both of each company's M.O.

As in, they might want to prioritize a newer character who is more profitable. The fact that Sakurai is a massive fan of Nier: Automata (along with Persona 5) doesn't make it look good for Geno. And, Spirits might remain deconfirmations too.

 

[Enigma735]

There's also the matter of him being a Spirit, and that matters to some people.

I think its funny if people are still of the opinion that Spirits are inelgible. Their are so much workarounds to upgrading a Spirit and I personally think this ARMS character is gonna blow that rule way out of the water

 

[Phoenixio]

Geno is only a pebble to what Sora's mountain is. Completely different levels of popularity, and Sora is well known even among the more casual players.

But why are people thinking Disney is a problem? They're not necessarily the easiest to deal with, but clearly they've had partnerships with Nintendo before. Epic Mickey was a big deal, and even had a sequel. And Kingdom Hearts games were on Nintendo devices before. The fact that more companies are involved makes it more difficult maybe, but if Disney only has to approve a few still-images of King Mickey, Goofy and Donald, it's really not as big a deal as what some say.

 

[Deleted member]

What's Geno's, then?

As a Geno fan:

*Irrelevance and lack of place in current Market (as said by someone else previously)
*Steep competition from within his own company (2B and Sora mainly but damn is 2B poppin' off recently)
*Being a One-Off character (which wouldn't be too much of an issue if it was in today's gaming market but paired with Irrelevance is kinda yikes for him)

And that's to name a few, All those things and more are what's keeping him back and what makes me think as a character Geno is inherently unlikely and will never truly be "likely" until he actually happens.

 

[Megadoomer]

As in, they might want to prioritize a newer character who is more profitable. The fact that Sakurai is a massive fan of Nier: Automata (along with Persona 5) doesn't make it look good for Geno. And, Spirits might remain deconfirmations too.

I wouldn't really go purely by what Sakurai's a fan of - he's stopped talking about what games he plays because people assumed that it related to Smash Bros., and from what I've seen, he plays a lot of games. I'd like to see Geno or 2B make it in, but I'm not sure if Sakurai being a fan of Nier Automata decreases Geno's chances. (he's also a fan of Fallout, Just Cause 3, and Gravity Rush, or at least he liked them enough to play them on a stream; that doesn't mean that we're going to get Vault Boy, Rico Rodriguez, and Kat)

 

[Enigma735]

I'd actually argue the bigger pro is developer acknowledgement.

Not many characters can do that.

Yeah true. Especially combined with the fact that Geno is such a popular request and Sakurai has acknowledged said popularity, which he also did with Ridley, in which he did end up getting included.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

As in, they might want to prioritize a newer character who is more profitable. The fact that Sakurai is a massive fan of Nier: Automata (along with Persona 5) doesn't make it look good for Geno. And, Spirits might remain deconfirmations too.

Who Sakurai is a fan of doesn't mean much if Nintendo doesn't suggest it. They know Geno is massively wanted. Do they have any reason to suggest 2B? One thing is Lara Croft, but 2B? At least for Nintendo, they do care about having games on the system itself, since it's better business for them.

Sakurai expressed he directly wanted Geno. He's made no such statements about 2B directly, so nothing looks particularly good for 2B due to his statements of liking a game. He's choosing them as the character is suggested. He's not picking them from a personal list. And he wanted Cloud first to begin with, but Hero was overall suggested before Geno, which is why Hero is in first.

Nintendo is not Sakurai. They at least have the ballot to look at. Not all characters are going to be on the ballot either. So no, I don't think 2B is in some special position, and is certainly not in Geno's better position just because Sakurai likes one game.

 

[Trevenant]

Yeah true. Especially combined with the fact that Geno is such a popular request and Sakurai has acknowledged said popularity, which he also did with Ridley, in which he did end up getting included.

Tbh Nintendo are picking the DLC now so I wouldn't really say that does much. If Gen o does get in, it will inevitably come down to Nintendo realising his popularity really.

 

[RileyXY1]

I think its funny if people are still of the opinion that Spirits are inelgible. Their are so much workarounds to upgrading a Spirit and I personally think this ARMS character is gonna blow that rule way out of the water

There's no guarantee that they are going to promote a Spirit to playable.

 

[Animegamingnerd]

Yikes a lot of people had a lot to say about my CacoMallow point

What evidence is their going against it? Not one mod has been ever able to match the quality as the ones shown on the leak, and I feel if this were a mod, someone would have came out saying it was fake and allowing people to download the mods. Why would someone go through the trouble of modding something all for the sake of getting people's hopes up?

1.Nintendo never took down any of the videos that had footage, they always do this when leaked footage releases.

2.It leaked back in November and no signs of it releasing have surfaced, hell it not releasing along side Byleth who came out of 6 months ago should be the biggest red flag that it is fake.

 

[MarioRaccoon]

Honestly I think that Geno has a 50-50 chance to get in. His best opportunity was for base roster or early bonus DLC (replacing Piranha Plant) where Sakurai chosed the fighters. Its a shamed that he had limited resources, if not, Geno would probably have been included in Ultimate.

And remember, we don’t know which criteria used Nintendo staff to choose DLC fighters. As I’ve said before, we don’t know if NOJ let NOA or NOE to participate in the selection. Its also been said that some companies have approached Nintendo to get their staff in Smash (like Ubisoft or Bethesda). Its likely that SNK offered Nintendo content of their IPs in Smash, and thats how we got Terry.

As for Sora, he is also very requested, and it’s rumored that he was the real winner of 2015 ballot but Nintendo couldn’t make an agreement. Although that was 5 years ago, and Nintendo has changed their staff, so maybe they want to try again. Who knows.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Yeah true. Especially combined with the fact that Geno is such a popular request and Sakurai has acknowledged said popularity, which he also did with Ridley, in which he did end up getting included.

It's definitely a point in his favor.

It just remains to be seen if all the parties are willing to play ball.

For Ridley, the only obstacle was Sakurai's vision of the character.

Now that Nintendo is picking the characters, we need to be sure that Sakurai, Nintendo and Square will be okay with Geno.

Not insurmountable by any means, but more complicated.

That said, I'm pretty sure Sakurai is game for Geno.

 

[Trevenant]

There's no guarantee that they are going to promote a Spirit to playable.

But why would they avoid a character just because they are a PNG? People are just applying their preferences to Nintendo and thinking 'As I don't want spirits upgraded, neither will Nintendo'. I have said this before but spirits ultimately deconfirmed for base game because they would have accounted for the lack or presence of a certain spirit if they were to be playable meaning the rule is pretty much just an indicator. This DLC was picked after base game meaning that DLC spirits are pretty much the only ones off the table. I will seriously wonder why they didn't pick one of the spirits only because they were a png if it does happen

 

[Megadoomer]

There's no guarantee that they are going to promote a Spirit to playable.

Still, it's not like it's some impossible barrier to overcome; Mewtwo and Lucas were trophies in Smash 4's base game but still became DLC regardless, and a 3D model seems like it would take much more work than a single pre-existing PNG image.

Mewtwo and Lucas were also veterans, but I can't see them disqualifying 1000+ characters, including basically every single noteworthy Nintendo character, from DLC because those characters already have a single image file in the game.

Plus, when it comes to an ARMS character, they'd basically have to actively ignore every single popular character from that game, and most of the noteworthy ones, if they wanted to avoid promoting a character that's already a spirit. There are options (Max Brass, Dr. Coyle, Helix...), but it would be a weird decision, to say the least.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Does that even count as a barrier anymore? To me, the inclusion of K. Rool and Banjo/Kazooie (at the very least - there are quite a few older examples) seemed like a clear indication that being seen as irrelevant isn't going to stop a character from getting in.

Everyone else seems to think so. It's the #1 reason people cite for him being unlikely, and why a lot of people think he's straight-up not happening.

EDIT: It makes some sense as well: Why pay royalties for a character you're never ever going to use later on? There's also no incentive for SquareEnix to use the character either.

There's no guarantee that they are going to promote a Spirit to playable.

No, but there's no evidence suggesting that they absolutely wouldn't promote base game Spririts. Besides, the most likely candidates for the next DLC fighter are either Spirits, or are Spirits, and an Assist Trophy.

 

[Perkilator]

There's also the matter of him being a Spirit, and that matters to some people.

We have a chance for Spirit promotions via ARMS. If it's not Spring Man, it's either Ribbon Girl, Ninjara, Min Min (my most wanted) or Twintelle. I don't think Sakurai gives two corns on a cob at this rate.

 

[RileyXY1]

Still, it's not like it's some impossible barrier to overcome; Mewtwo and Lucas were trophies in Smash 4's base game but still became DLC regardless, and a 3D model seems like it would take much more work than a single pre-existing PNG image.

Mewtwo and Lucas were also veterans, but I can't see them disqualifying 1000+ characters, including basically every single noteworthy Nintendo character, from DLC because those characters already have a single image file in the game.

Some people actually think that, and we might get someone like Max Brass or Dr. Coyle.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

I think spirits were deconfirmations for FP1.

For FP2 I always thought they might be game considering they were planned after launch.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

2.It leaked back in November and no signs of it releasing have surfaced, hell it not releasing along side Byleth who came out of 6 months ago should be the biggest red flag that it is fake.

It's the smallest red flag.

The costumes were being playtested. In the same month Byleth was recorded in. They were most likely not ready to be added to the costume set. Never mind why would Byleth have 7 costumes when two of them had 5, another had 4, and one had 6. If it had any chance of being real, as both costumes are clearly together, it was going to be CP6 anyway. Don't forget that CP6 was delayed, so the "giant wait" people speak of is a lot longer than it was meant to be.

They came out so significantly late as a leak that they were most likely Fighter's Pass 2 costumes in timing. Sans took forever to show up as a costume even then. Besides that, if they were real, it doesn't matter how long it takes because they would be planned to come with a very specific character. They don't just randomly add a costume to another character. This stuff is planned beforehand and rarely changed, as these small details are stuff that the companies work out, since who comes as a Mii costume is a highlight that of a challenger pack that isn't the character in itself. Companies care about these details to begin with.

 

[Trevenant]

Some people actually think that, and we might get someone like Max Brass or Dr. Coyle.

Tbh that's either because they genuinely prefer those characters and think they are likely based on their importance in the lore or the game itself or just want the spirit rule withheld

 

[Enigma735]

There's no guarantee that they are going to promote a Spirit to playable.

There's also no guarantee that Spirits deconfirm so it works both ways.

1.Nintendo never took down any of the videos that had footage, they always do this when leaked footage releases.

2.It leaked back in November and no signs of it releasing have surfaced, hell it not releasing along side Byleth who came out of 6 months ago should be the biggest red flag that it is fake.

1. I have already pointed this out and this is the one red flag I see within the leak. I still don't think this is enough to completely toss out the leak just yet.

2. This is just speculation on my part, but I don't think Nintendo would work on things last second. This is stuff I personally feel Nintendo would work on well in advance, so its very possible these outfits will be coming with future waves.

It's definitely a point in his favor.

It just remains to be seen if all the parties are willing to play ball.

For Ridley, the only obstacle was Sakurai's vision of the character.

Now that Nintendo is picking the characters, we need to be sure that Sakurai, Nintendo and Square will be okay with Geno.

Not insurmountable by any means, but more complicated.

That said, I'm pretty sure Sakurai is game for Geno.

Yeah same here and I do think Square could be another obstacle for Geno, but not much seeing how I believe Square is aware of the Geno popularity seeing as how they did allow him to cameo in Mario & Luigi: Superstar Saga and gave him a Mii Outfit in Sm4sh

 

[Megadoomer]

Some people actually think that, and we might get someone like Max Brass or Dr. Coyle.

Yeah, I edited my thoughts on that into my post. (I tend to make a lot of edits haha) I just figure it would be weird for them to ignore the most popular characters in the game (by my understanding) to stubbornly stick to the idea that a spirit can't be promoted to playable when they've already done something similar (promoting a character who's a trophy in the base game to playable status through DLC) in Smash 4.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Yeah same here and I do think Square could be another obstacle for Geno, but not much seeing how I believe Square is aware of the Geno popularity seeing as how they did allow him to cameo in Mario & Luigi: Superstar Saga and gave him a Mii Outfit in Sm4sh

I think Square knows he's popular yeah.

You remember when Verge heard the Square seven? The reason there were seven names was because Square sometimes uses fake information to hide leaks. If Geno was among one of the fakes to protect Hero, then Square knows people like him.

One thing I fear may happen it that Geno is simply out-prioritized for both companies. Like they may be okay with Geno, but they may want to focus on other things first.

That situation takes out more good characters than I'd like...

 

[Animegamingnerd]

It's the smallest red flag.

The costumes were being playtested. In the same month Byleth was recorded in. They were most likely not ready to be added to the costume set. Never mind why would Byleth have 7 costumes when two of them had 5, another had 4, and one had 6. If it had any chance of being real, as both costumes are clearly together, it was going to be CP6 anyway. Don't forget that CP6 was delayed, so the "giant wait" people speak of is a lot longer than it was meant to be.

They came out so significantly late as a leak that they were most likely Fighter's Pass 2 costumes in timing. Sans took forever to show up as a costume even then. Besides that, if they were real, it doesn't matter how long it takes because they would be planned to come with a very specific character. They don't just randomly add a costume to another character. This stuff is planned beforehand and rarely changed, as these small details are stuff that the companies work out, since who comes as a Mii costume is a highlight that of a challenger pack that isn't the character in itself. Companies care about these details to begin with.

I don't think its fair to compare them to the Sans one especially since there was clearly a lot more detail and effort put into that over those two that are very pretty much in nature just standard Mii Fighter hats. Also CP6 as far as we know was never delayed, we have known since March it is suppose to come out in June and before that we had no dates besides a vague done by the end of 2021 date. In fact I remember there was a lot of speculation that we wouldn't even hear about CP6 until June.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

It's the smallest red flag.

The costumes were being playtested. In the same month Byleth was recorded in. They were most likely not ready to be added to the costume set. Never mind why would Byleth have 7 costumes when two of them had 5, another had 4, and one had 6. If it had any chance of being real, as both costumes are clearly together, it was going to be CP6 anyway. Don't forget that CP6 was delayed, so the "giant wait" people speak of is a lot longer than it was meant to be.

They came out so significantly late as a leak that they were most likely Fighter's Pass 2 costumes in timing. Sans took forever to show up as a costume even then. Besides that, if they were real, it doesn't matter how long it takes because they would be planned to come with a very specific character. They don't just randomly add a costume to another character. This stuff is planned beforehand and rarely changed, as these small details are stuff that the companies work out, since who comes as a Mii costume is a highlight that of a challenger pack that isn't the character in itself. Companies care about these details to begin with.

You're assuming the presentation and the Mii Fighter section are recorded at the same time, not to mention the fact that these things are recorded way before they're ready to be released anyway. It's not at all farfetched to say that these costumes could have been added to the Mii Fighter segment Terry's presentation which means these costumes have missed two entire releases so far. And while they are planned to go with a specific character, the costumes aren't always related to them.

So yeah. Huge red flag.

 

[Enigma735]

I think Square knows he's popular yeah.

You remember when Verge heard the Square seven? The reason there were seven names was because Square sometimes uses fake information to hide leaks. If Geno was among one of the fakes to protect Hero, then Square knows people like him.

One thing I fear may happen it that Geno is simply out-prioritized for both companies. Like they may be okay with Geno, but they may want to focus on other things first.

That situation takes out more good characters than I'd like...

Oh yeah most definitely. All we can do is have hope, but I'm pretty confident in his chances atm so my fingers are crossed

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Oh yeah most definitely. All we can do is have hope, but I'm pretty confident in his chances atm so my fingers are crossed

I'll be honest, I don't particularly want Geno. He' pretty low on my list.

But I do think he's got a pretty good shot.

 

[RileyXY1]

Cacomallow is fake anyways as Doomguy is absolutely not getting in.

 

[Mamboo07]

Cacomallow is fake anyways as Doomguy is absolutely not getting in.

Same.
(That's why I don't trust fake Smash leaks)

 

[Perkilator]

Cacomallow is fake anyways as Doomguy is absolutely not getting in.

Who said Doomguy had to get in for a Cacodemon hat? This isn't to say I think the leak is real.