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Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

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Swamp Sensei

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Who said Doomguy had to get in for a Cacodemon hat? This isn't to say I think the leak is real.
That's a fair point.

Doom Guy doesn't have to be a character for Doom content.
 

Verde Coeden Scalesworth

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I don't think its fair to compare them to the Sans one especially since there was clearly a lot more detail and effort put into that over those two that are very pretty much in nature just standard Mii Fighter hats. Also CP6 as far as we know was never delayed, we have known since March it is suppose to come out in June and before that we had no dates besides a vague done by the end of 2021 date. In fact I remember there was a lot of speculation that we wouldn't even hear about CP6 until June.
It is fair to compare it. We already had an idea Undertale content was coming because Sakurai outright talked to its IP owner about it. We had to wait over 6 months first.

Who is to say those costumes were licensed super early on either? It could've been a month or two beforehand. There's a crapload of leeway. Also, costumes are going to come out based upon what character is decided. It doesn't matter when they make the costumes. Only when they release them. As I pointed out, they were still being worked on before not long before Byleth was recorded. If they weren't coming with CP5, it'll come with CP6, no matter how long it'll take. That's the reason why the Sans costume released way later, because it was planned with a specific character. It could've came out with anyone else far earlier, since they had months on end to work with it. Easily by Terry at the very least. That's why these "it takes too long" arguments aren't very good. They have plans. These plans won't change just cause some content is ready. Content, especially Mii costumes, are easy to do months on end in advance. Never mind that you have different teams doing their part. Some can work on Mii costumes super early in advance, but they can't even release them yet.

Sakurai directly told us CP6 was delayed due to the gameplay. It was not supposed to come out earlier than June originally intended.

You're assuming the presentation and the Mii Fighter section are recorded at the same time, not to mention the fact that these things are recorded way before they're ready to be released anyway. It's not at all farfetched to say that these costumes could have been added to the Mii Fighter segment Terry's presentation which means these costumes have missed two entire releases so far. And while they are planned to go with a specific character, the costumes aren't always related to them.

So yeah. Huge red flag.
Which is the most logical explanation to begin with. Yes, the recordings are done within days time. They literally recorded Banjo & Kazooie and Hero's within a week of each other. This would have to include all the recordings for that statement to make sense. It's been pretty much confirmed by that point. And the most logical take to mean they mean the whole thing.

I don't buy any lol-edits. No. They had hard plans of who is with who and aren't going to remotely change it because they have to, gasp, wait a bit longer to give out a costume. Those were blatantly meant for Pass 2. They were worked on after Pass 2 was decided as well. There's nothing that adds up to having any serious relation to Pass 1.

They're still fake, regardless, but that reasoning is highly flawed as is. Tiniest red flag ever. The only good red flag was the leak not being taken down and that's it. The rest are too vague of reasoning and require massive assumptions to work either way. It's not a massive assumption that they barely would ever change a Challenger Pack's hard plans, because that requires them to renegotiate the details of the packs with every third party involved. It's only logical it was never for Byleth because the particular pack was already clearly decided a long time beforehand anyway. The costumes themselves would've been finished up specifically with that pack in mind. This is why we knew of Sans effectively 7 months in advance. The basic wait for Cacomallow at its earliest would've been nearly the same anyway if things went as planned.
 

RaintheCriminalWhirlwind

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Honestly...I just hope 2B (Potentially A2 echo) and Geno happen. While I have many characters that I want to be in instead of Geno (Like Chun-Li, Morrigan, Estelle Bright from Trails of the Sky, Velvet from Tales of Berseria, Knightmare/Siegfried, Devil Jin, Isaac from Golden sun, Shantae, Dart or Rose from Legend of Dragoon for example) Geno fans have been suffering for so long and honestly, Geno seems pretty cool. If anyone deserves a shot to get in, its him.
 

SMAASH! Puppy

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I don't buy any lol-edits. No. They had hard plans of who is with who and aren't going to remotely change it because they have to, gasp, wait a bit longer to give out a costume.
That's not what I meant by added. If the Mii Costumes trailers were being made much closer to the showcase's airing (and even if they weren't, they're still ready to show off during, and likely before playtesting) then they were ready for it.

Those were blatantly meant for Pass 2. They were worked on after Pass 2 was decided as well. There's nothing that adds up to having any serious relation to Pass 1.
They were made alongside Pass 1 characters so there's not really any evidence suggesting they'd be for Pass 2 either.

They're still fake, regardless, but that reasoning is highly flawed as is. Tiniest red flag ever.
It's really not. That flag is ginormous.
 

cosmicB

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Yeah same here and I do think Square could be another obstacle for Geno, but not much seeing how I believe Square is aware of the Geno popularity seeing as how they did allow him to cameo in Mario & Luigi: Superstar Saga and gave him a Mii Outfit in Sm4sh
The cameo they would late remove in the re-release?
 

Verde Coeden Scalesworth

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That's not what I meant by added. If the Mii Costumes trailers were being made much closer to the showcase's airing (and even if they weren't, they're still ready to show off during, and likely before playtesting) then they were ready for it.
That still sounds like changing the plans. 7 Mii costumes, when not even 6 were repeated? Don't buy it as remotely realistic. I know what you mean, but I see no reason to believe that when it was clear they did the entire recordings twice in a row. It's only logical they followed the same procedure, not some random procedure with no evidence to suggest it.

They were made alongside Pass 1 characters so there's not really any evidence suggesting they'd be for Pass 2 either.
They were worked on right after Pass 2 was decided upon. That's massive reasoning for it. They were made way later than any other costume would be too, since costumes take very little to do and are decided upon actually after Pass 1 was decided. The timing only fits Pass 2 alone.

It's really not. That flag is ginormous.
There is no reason to believe it matters besides making up a giant story of why they'd overload a set of Mii costumes. Which was never going to happen. 7 costumes makes no sense. They would've then planned it out to be separated with Terry and Byleth if they were Pass 1 instead. But they were made together, so why should we believe they were ever separated? Nothing really adds up at all for them being pass 1 whatsoever.

I stand it's a tiny flag and requires massive stretches to work. The timing didn't actually work around Byleth at all. Especially since our data has led us to believe all the recordings were done at once for each presentation. Since it's, again, the only explanation he's given to how they're done, which they did a full presentation within the week of each other. He's never implied anything but it all was done at best. I won't buy lol-edits with zero evidence to suggest it was ever plausible. It's a load of bull to me right now that they combined multiple presentation pieces into one. It was done within days for each part, as told to us anyway.

It was only fake because Nintendo did nothing. The rest are fairly small details that require assumptions to make work against it, without any real evidence to back it up otherwise.
 
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SMAASH! Puppy

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The cameo they would late remove in the re-release?
Yes, though it is worth noting that said re-release is the last thing AlphaDream made before going under. It's entirely possible that they couldn't afford it.

Obscurity actually. King K. Rool already covered the Irrevelency factor as Ridley did with Too Big and Banjo with Too Impossible.
It's the same effect really: Companies don't care about the character (or have no plans to do anything with them for any foreseeable future).
 

Swamp Sensei

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Obscurity actually. King K. Rool already covered the Irrevelency factor as Ridley did with Too Big and Banjo with Too Impossible.
That's not a logical way of thinking.

K.Rool, Banjo and Ridley all got in despite those issues. They didn't make the issues stop existing.

Like, for example, Ridley got in despite being "too big" but if I said I wanted the Bionis as a playable character, would it be out there to tell me its too big?
 

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Yes, though it is worth noting that said re-release is the last thing AlphaDream made before going under. It's entirely possible that they couldn't afford it.
Bowsers inside story was the last one they made before dying so they had at least enough money to remake one more game then the last last thing they did was some android/ios thing. Then they went under
 
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Verde Coeden Scalesworth

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When someone proves an issue isn't the be-end all(like obscurity), it doesn't mean other obscure characters get some massive boost. It means they aren't completely as easy to write off. There's always going to be context to begin with.

King K. Rool got in while also being from a highly active series with more games to come, so it's not hard to convince Nintendo either to get his usage.

Banjo-Kazooie had games available and Microsoft could have it advertised. Sakurai advertises it. This makes it easy for them to say yes at that point. Obviously Phil Spencer still liked the idea, but he works with his business partners too.

Ridley had to get an all-new design first that was easier to shrink down and balance. His previous designs were not workable.

There's always more than meets the eye.
 

SMAASH! Puppy

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7 costumes makes no sense.
How on Earth would 7 not make sense if we've gotten 6 in one go before?

I stand it's a tiny flag and requires massive stretches to work.
And I stand by the fact that it's a really big one that requires 0 stretches to work. We both agree that it's fake so let's just move on.

Bowsers inside story was the last one they made befor dying
Oh. Well it's still a possibility depending on how expensive the royalties would be. If they were scraping by then it could be too expensive to license the character and then expect to be able to make another game.

EDIT: Geno's little cameo ain't gonna sell units to the masses after all.
 
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Enigma735

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The cameo they would late remove in the re-release?
This isn't really fair considering the fact that Geno is owned by a third-party company. What would be the sense to negotiate for Geno just for one small cameo? It made sense in the original since that was when Geno popularity was at its prime
 

Animegamingnerd

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Yes, though it is worth noting that said re-release is the last thing AlphaDream made before going under. It's entirely possible that they couldn't afford it.


It's the same effect really: Companies don't care about the character (or have no plans to do anything with them for any foreseeable future).
Bowsers inside story was the last one they made before dying so they had at least enough money to remake one more game then the last last thing they did was some android/ios thing. Then they went under
For something like, Alpha Dream themselves would need to be the ones to pay for or negotiation for it, that is all on Nintendo has they are the ones who owns the rights to Mario and Luigi Superstar Saga and were the one's funding the game's budget. Chances are Nintendo was simply not interested in giving any additional for the cameo especially when those remakes likely had a low budget.
 

The Stoopid Unikorn

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This isn't really fair considering the fact that Geno is owned by a third-party company. What would be the sense to negotiate for Geno just for one small cameo? It made sense in the original since that was when Geno popularity was at its prime
No, it made sense because at the time, most of AlphaDream's staff consistent of former Square employees, so they had a way to easily contact them for a Geno cameo. Geno's popularity likely helped, but the fact that so many knew how to get some talk with Square is what really led to the cameo happening.

They also probably didn't have money troubles like what they had in recent years before going bankrupt.
 
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Verde Coeden Scalesworth

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How on Earth would 7 not make sense if we've gotten 6 in one go before?
Why would they make something so massive and not spread it out to 6 each? Changing any pack no matter what would require third parties discussing stuff. It always matters. There's no way 7 would happen if 6 each wasn't going to happen for multiple characters. And considering people believe the Hero pack was going to have Geno and Chocobo Hat, which are actually logical ideas(but since it involves one company, it's pretty easy to negotiate it so you can release them at a later time. Whether it's for Premium upgrades or otherwise), that'd only leave one pack with 5 costumes at best. The packs are pretty spread out overall. You have only one oddball pack, and there's a legitimate reason for it to have at least 6 instead of 4. There's no legitimate reason to believe any pack would have 7 to begin with.

And I stand by the fact that it's a really big one that requires 0 stretches to work. We both agree that it's fake so let's just move on.
It's a stretch to believe, when we only know presentations were all made at once, that it has to happen to justify a leak. That's making up way too much for anyone to believe it. It's not really at all logical with zero evidence to suggest it. That makes it a stretch if you need to justify it hard to prove anything. There's no real justification to believe he piecemealed all the presentations together here. Not in the way you're thinking of. What you're talking about is that he'd have to record two entire sets of Mii costumes to make it work. They would've been recorded at once, and since 7 costumes is a leap of logic to begin with for Byleth(5 at least was a consistent design, and keep in mind they have multiple missing costumes anyway, which means that to get them all in, they'd still have to spread out the costumes so everything has 6 or 7, if there was never a Pass 2 planned, or some would never come back. They've very consistent about Mii costume spreading out).

Keep in mind if the Geno and/or Chocobo Hat are coming back, they'd have decided that idea at least in June alone, almost a year from now. Do you realize how long they figured out to make either for Pass 2? There's such massive leeway that it's easy to see how tons of costumes would've been decided for Pass 2 well before September. Including Cacomallow, if it had any chance of being real. This is why these "takes too long" are too flawed to be a remotely strong argument. There is no such thing as takes too long at all. They plan things significantly beforehand. Way too beforehand as is for everything to stay Pass 1. It's a safe bet by June they already intended to move things to Pass 2, but more importantly, we knew of Sans in April. They had already figured that some stuff will be in Pass 2 after deciding one of the last Pass 1 costumes. It adds very much up that they were meant for Pass 2 at that point. Since they would've been started as early as August anyway. Sans was licensed very very early on. Why should we believe it was designed to be part of the Cacomallow costumes anyway. Especially when the only way we'd have gotten Doom content was with Pass 2, as they outright said Pass 1 was discarded. The second article on it even notes that "at the time of an interview, we had no plans as of yet", with the only known interview in 2018 to begin with. That gives literally 2 years of leeway for them to do so.

So yes, it was clear they would've been Pass 2. All Doom content was pretty much disconfirmed for Pass 1. If they were made together, but split, only Mallow would've been with Byleth at the earliest, and realistically, they were made together because they were part of the same pack. That's why they were leaked together(well, faked together, to capitalize off of both them being part of the same set of content intentionally). I also forgot one other small thing; ...Why would Mallow come without a Geno costume at the same time(or part of a Geno pack)? They wouldn't be that separated either. So we're talking at least 3 costumes realistically, maybe more if the SE characters will be together with Chocobo Hat coming back. There's really no good reason Mallow would've been in Pass 1 unless it was originally for Hero with a Geno costume at one point. Cacodemon could go anywhere on its own, but as I noted, it would've been only for Pass 2 anyway because Doom content in general was hard disconfirmed for Pass 1, making any idea that part would've come with Byleth completely impossible.
 
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Swamp Sensei

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Remakes usually have smaller budgets too.

Geno might have been removed in the remake due to a smaller budget.
 

Verde Coeden Scalesworth

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Remakes usually have smaller budgets too.

Geno might have been removed in the remake due to a smaller budget.
This feels fairly logical to me. Re-licensing him will cost a decent amount of money, since that cameo means Geno is being actively used. Since royalties are paid in general for SE(including sales, as per the norm), it was logical to remove it to make sure the remake gathers more money straight to Nintendo instead.

Cameos are rarely worth redoing in these cases outside of your own IP's. They're cool for the original version as a fun thing, but they have bigger budgets, so.
 

Jomosensual

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Just saw this. Interesting stuff and probably gives a reason why we don't have an RE rep in Smash


 
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SMAASH! Puppy

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Just saw this. Interesting stuff and probably gives a reason why we don't have an RE rep in Smash
I really don't understand this reasoning. I doubt Nintendo would be like "Hm. Resident Evil is a very popular series overseas, even getting 6 movies that did super well even though it's core fanbase hated it. Our Japanese audience wouldn't buy it as much so let's just not include it."
 

7NATOR

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Just saw this. Interesting stuff and probably gives a reason why we don't have an RE rep in Smash


Could be because Home Console gaming in Japan is taking a Downturn. Even if only 20% of Sales is in Japan, it might be good number Sales too. I think Something else was the reason Resident Evil got spirited.
 

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Obscurity actually. King K. Rool already covered the Irrevelency factor as Ridley did with Too Big and Banjo with Too Impossible.
Just because a character was able to overcome a hindrance such as obscurity, "irrelevancy" (which is a misnomer), or infeasibility doesn't mean those aren't still factors that are detrimental to the chances of the character. The fact that the only real exceptions have been those able to muster a monumental wave of popularity or prominence underscores that.

Exceptions don't invalidate those obstacles as genuine points against the odds of a character. They just don't automatically condemn them to exclusion. Geno does have a lot of popularity, so him being another exception isn't implausible, but that doesn't mean "irrelevance" is inherently a non-issue just because a different character in a different situation was able to get past it.

Also Banjo only got in once people stopped thinking he was impossible. If people had continued to believe his inclusion was out of the realm of possibility, as they had for the decade+ before Spencer's tweet, he wouldn't currently be on the roster.

Just saw this. Interesting stuff and probably gives a reason why we don't have an RE rep in Smash


80 million sales coming from outside Japan means 20 million came from inside Japan, which is a lot. We have third-parties with sales fewer than 20 million total.
 

cosmicB

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This isn't really fair considering the fact that Geno is owned by a third-party company. What would be the sense to negotiate for Geno just for one small cameo? It made sense in the original since that was when Geno popularity was at its prime
What's the sense in negotiating for him as a spirit?

Prior to Ultimate, Geno was in total limbo. The mii costume came and went and that was it. Sakurai went radio silent on him and one of his few appearances was retconned out of existence. It sort of showed how Square saw the character and we still haven't gotten any kind of "official" acknowledgment of him beyond a jpeg that could have been nothing more than a shrug from Matsuda during negotiations for Hero (which was at least partially in the base code due to the Brave code name).
 
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7NATOR

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Actually i do got another question?

Concerning Rex, if he were to make it in, and he had Blade Switching as his Gimmick, is it Possible he could have extra Blades besides Pyra and Mythera, like KOS-MOS and Elma make Cameo Appearnces as Blades of his. I could see them doing that if Sakurai wanted Certain requests to have more of a role
 

SMAASH! Puppy

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Actually i do got another question?

Concerning Rex, if he were to make it in, and he had Blade Switching as his Gimmick, is it Possible he could have extra Blades besides Pyra and Mythera, like KOS-MOS and Elma make Cameo Appearnces as Blades of his. I could see them doing that if Sakurai wanted Certain requests to have more of a role
Almost definitely not on KOS-MOS, and probably not for Elma. Neither would be a part of Rex's moveset that's for sure.
 

Megadoomer

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Actually i do got another question?

Concerning Rex, if he were to make it in, and he had Blade Switching as his Gimmick, is it Possible he could have extra Blades besides Pyra and Mythera, like KOS-MOS and Elma make Cameo Appearnces as Blades of his. I could see them doing that if Sakurai wanted Certain requests to have more of a role
I feel like they'd probably stick to Pyra and Mythra for simplicity's sake, because they're blades that Rex gets as a result of the plot, and (in the case of KOS-MOS and Elma) so potential playable characters aren't ruled out due to being a part of Rex's moveset. Then again, I'm not very far into Xenoblade Chronicles 2 - I haven't even encountered Mythra yet, so I'm not sure what other blades (if any) he gets as part of the story.
 
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I really don't think being more popular in certain parts of world than others is necessarily a detriment to getting into Smash when your series is that massive. Dragon Quest is of a similar size and also has its fanbase largely concentrated in one part of the world, yet Hero still made the jump. I can't see it harming Resident Evil in any meaningful way,
 

SMAASH! Puppy

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Actually i do got another question?

Concerning Rex, if he were to make it in, and he had Blade Switching as his Gimmick, is it Possible he could have extra Blades besides Pyra and Mythera, like KOS-MOS and Elma make Cameo Appearnces as Blades of his. I could see them doing that if Sakurai wanted Certain requests to have more of a role
I feel like they'd probably stick to Pyra and Mythra for simplicity's sake, because they're blades that Rex gets as a result of the plot, and (in the case of KOS-MOS and Elma) so potential playable characters aren't ruled out due to being a part of Rex's moveset. Then again, I'm not very far into Xenoblade Chronicles 2 - I haven't even encountered Mythra yet, so I'm not sure what other blades (if any) he gets as part of the story.
To add to this and my previous response, I think the fact that Joker only has Arsenne is telling for this. There's also the fact that these blades would change his moveset due to giving him a new weapon.

You may not consider this Blade to be that spoilery, but Megadoomer hasn't gotten to this part yet and I don't believe this Blade was advertised like Mythra so spoiler box anyway.
At most I expect Roc to cameo in something if Rex has a pose with all of his early game personal blades taunt. Nia and Torra as well either for a taunt or the Final Smash.
 

The Stoopid Unikorn

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Actually i do got another question?

Concerning Rex, if he were to make it in, and he had Blade Switching as his Gimmick, is it Possible he could have extra Blades besides Pyra and Mythera, like KOS-MOS and Elma make Cameo Appearnces as Blades of his. I could see them doing that if Sakurai wanted Certain requests to have more of a role
If we get Blade Switching, they'd keep it to Pyra and Mythra.

Not just for convenience's sake when programming the character, but also because they are literally two halves of the Aegis, so it fits thematically.
 
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Icedragonadam

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If I had to wager on why RE got spirited, it was probably because of one of these three options:

1.) The moveset didn't work. While a character wasn't dropped because of lack of ideas, it's possible if a RE character was considered, the character used Survival horror mechanics(like limited ammo) which was hard to balance in the game.

2.) If Capcom is getting a rep, then Nintendo and Capcom had an interest in promoting another Capcom series in Smash.

3.) Nintendo didn't negotiate for a Capcom character for DLC at all and is fine with the current representation.
 
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7NATOR

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I've seen all the responses and i guess i get it. I suggested that cause if there was only one Xeno Character (because there 99% only be 1 xeno character if one does make the FP), then they want to at least put some fan favorites in a role. Of course they could just make them Mii Costumes

though i do wonder, If Rex somehow doesn't make the DLC, i wonder if Sakurai would ever give an explanation on that
 

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If I had to wager on why RE got spirited, it was probably because of one of these three options:

1.) The moveset didn't work. While a character wasn't dropped because of lack of ideas, it's possible if a RE character was considered, the character used Survival horror mechanics(like limited ammo) which was hard to balance in the game.

2.) If Capcom is getting a rep, then Nintendo and Capcom had a an interest in promoting another Capcom series in Smash.

3.) Nintendo didn't negotiate for a Capcom character for DLC at all and is fine with the current representation.
I have heavy doubt on all three.
  1. I'm not sure they would renegotiate an entire character due to balancing difficulties. I feel like they'd sooner leave them over or underpowered and patch from there.
  2. Capcom did not get another character in Fighters Pass Vol. 1, which is when the Resident Evil Spirits were added.
  3. Just like there's not really any evidence to suggest that there is going to be another Capcom character like Dante or something, there also isn't any evidence that there isn't going to be one.

Thinking about it, depending on when Spirits are chosen, it's entirely possible that wave 1's DLC Spirits are eligible again since there's theoretically a decent amount of time between negotiations for these Spirits, and wave 2's fighters.
 

SpectreJordan

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I really wish someone asks Sakurai why they passed on RE one day. It’s such a historic game series with a lot of potential for a fun moveset.

It’s the highest selling Japanese franchise without a playable character. Only Japanese series that are higher are Mario, Pokemon, Final Fantasy, Sonic & Zelda. A goal Sakurai’s stated in the past is that he wants to show the world how great Japanese games are, so it’s so weird to me that he’d pass up on adding a character to such a huge/important series.

I’ll be delusional & just hope Sakurai is a Claire/RE2 fanboy & the RE spirits were just to throw us off the scent. <_____<
 

7NATOR

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I think i remember a rumor about Jill being Negetioated for, but was Dropped. Papagenos talked about it

I don't think it had anything to do with Moveset. Honestly though i think it was on Nintendo's end for why the deal got dropped .Maybe there were aspects Capcom wanted included that Nintendo was no on. It happens
 

snowgolem

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I propose Igor as a pokémon trainer- like character, and he calls out every persona protagonist
technically joker is the only one who is his prisoner but idc he changed his mind about everyone else
 
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