Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[Ben Holt]

Playable Bionis for Smash!

And don't give me any of the "Too big for Smash" nonsense.

Well ****. I thought Andross was too big, but this takes the cake.

 

[Hinata]

Playable Bionis for Smash!

And don't give me any of the "Too big for Smash" nonsense.

Bro, the man's already a stage, what more do you want from him?

 

[Ben Holt]

Bro, the man's already a stage, what more do you want from him?

To play as him. Duh. Can't ya read?

 

[GoodGrief741]

Honestly I think Zelda only has one problem.


There's no clear front runner.

There are lots of popular Zelda characters but there are so many choices that demand is fractured. Compare things to K. Rool and Ridley where they were far and away the fan favorite character to add next. Who do you add next? Skull Kid? Midna? Ghirahim? Impa? None of that is helped by those who believe Zelda shouldn't have anyone outside the main trio (which I think is lame).

I think if a Zelda newcomer is gonna see any success, the fandom's gonna have to rally behind one character and push them hardcore (while still supporting their favorites).

If I had to choose, I'd say Midna and Skull Kid would be our best bets for that, but who knows...

See but that's the problem. We're talking about freaking The Legend of Zelda, you're telling me that a character from it needs to have Banjo levels of demand to get in? That's insane to me, we're dealing with several iconic and popular characters that have mid-to-high support separately, never mind the unified demand for a new character, any new character. How is that not enough? I mean, if several separate characters - and we're talking 5, at most - getting some demand was enough to get Castlevania in Smash, surely they must have noticed the support for the various Zelda characters. With that caliber I think it's absurd for the devs not to consider it a necessary addition.

 

[HansShotFirst20]

Just came back from the future, where Sakurai just revealed the last DLC fighter. ARMS rep is Min Min and the rest of FPv2 is also noodle themed, but I'll leave the guessing on who they are to you

 

[Shroob]

Just came back from the future, where Sakurai just revealed the last DLC fighter. ARMS rep is Min Min and the rest of FPv2 is also noodle themed, but I'll leave the guessing on who they are to you

Finally, Spaghetti-O's and Chef Boyardee get their time to shine.

 

[Omar_25]

Just came back from the future, where Sakurai just revealed the last DLC fighter. ARMS rep is Min Min and the rest of FPv2 is also noodle themed, but I'll leave the guessing on who they are to you

Yo, Colonel Noodle from Parappa the Rapper confirmed?

Spoiler

 

[Knight Dude]

I think I got a decent game. I hope it's good.

Make a fighters pass using the top six "gun wielding" characters you'd like to see in Super Smash Bros Ultimate so anyone who fights using guns or any kind of weapon that shoots bullets or lasers beams (Like Samus, Joker, Bayonetta or Inklings) is fair game. I'll give you all an example.

1. Cormano (Sunset Riders)
2. John Raimi (Geist)
3. Doom Guy (DOOM)
4. Gunstar Red/Blue (Gunstar Heroes)
5. The Dude (Postal 2)
6. SGT. CORTEZ! (TimeSplitters)

YEAH! IT'S TIME TO SPLIT!
View attachment 273039

Mega Man X
Doom Slayer
Lara Croft
Master Chief
Elma, if she counts
Dante, if he counts

If they don't count, Ratchet and Clank and uh....Regina from Dino Crisis. DC2 has some crazy weapons.

We move.

 

[TechPowah]

Not that I DON'T care about what other representation Zelda gets, but like
I don't care what other items or spirits or music Zelda gets
I wanna see someone else from that series that isn't just Link

 

[DMTN]

Just came back from the future, where Sakurai just revealed the last DLC fighter. ARMS rep is Min Min and the rest of FPv2 is also noodle themed, but I'll leave the guessing on who they are to you

Guy Eldoon? Not the Ace Attorney rep I would have gone with, but whatever.

 

[Knight Dude]

>Every rare occasion Layton gets acknowledged by the Smash community.
>It's always in these meme posts that tend to make him look like a joke and unappealing.
>Supporting Layton is an uphill battle filled with pain and suffering.

What did we do to deserve this Laytonbros...? OTL

I might not be a Layton fan, but part of me is holding out for you guys. One of my siblings likes his and Phoenix Wright's games.

 

[Evil Trapezium]

Mega Man X
Doom Slayer
Lara Croft
Master Chief
Elma, if she counts
Dante, if he counts

If they don't count, Ratchet and Clank and uh....Regina from Dino Crisis. DC2 has some crazy weapons.

We move.

Elma and Dante count.

 

[Knight Dude]

I wouldn't have a problem with a new Zelda fighter, but I don't have any character I want to back in particular.

All I know is, whoever the ARMS character is, people will say it was extremely obvious to anyone with half a brain, which totally includes me. Ignore all the posts I deleted, of course I could tell it was [REDACTED] all along.

I want it to either be Spring Man or multiple characters via costumes. But obviously I can't say for sure what'll actually happen. I just want to see the moveset at this point. Would said character only use their default arms, or a whole slew from the entire game?

The only annoying thing I can see is gonna happen if it's not Springman will be supporters of 'x secondary character' making as if they will get in before the protagonist/mascot.

There's already a few of them who use Robin, of all people, as an example.

Well yeah. That'll happen. But I believe that the fans of AT characters like Waluigi or Alcuard will have more to say than anything else if it is Spring-Man. If not, everyone will just play Marvin's Room.

 

[Guybrush20X6]

Strange thing about speculation, there's certain characters that are really era specific. Not to say there's not people who support them still but they had a massive hey-day and not have kinda tapered off.

For Example in the Brawl Era the popular picks were:
Krystal
Isaac
Bowser Jr. (This is back when the paint brush was his thing, not the clown car)
King K. Rool
Ridley
Ashley
Waluigi
Bomberman
Geno

Since then, of those who didn't eventually make it in, only Geno and Waluigi have really active scenes around them, at least from what I've seen.

 

[Knight Dude]

Strange thing about speculation, there's certain characters that are really era specific. Not to say there's not people who support them still but they had a massive hey-day and not have kinda tapered off.

For Example in the Brawl Era the popular picks were:
Krystal
Isaac
Bowser Jr. (This is back when the paint brush was his thing, not the clown car)
King K. Rool
Ridley
Ashley
Waluigi
Bomberman
Geno

Since then, of those who didn't eventually make it in, only Geno and Waluigi have really active scenes around them, at least from what I've seen.

Bomberman was kind of picking up after Smash 4, I think he mostly dropped off being an AT. I guess you could see Ashley as the same, but she was a character I didn't pay attention to.

Krystal dropped off though. Isaac bounced back up and down.

 

[Guynamednelson]

Since then, of those who didn't eventually make it in, only Geno and Waluigi have really active scenes around them, at least from what I've seen.

Isaac's thread is also fairly active.

 

[Guybrush20X6]

Isaac's thread is also fairly active.

Well Isaac has made a comeback as of late on the hope that is Spring Man could be promoted, why not?

After all, from what I understand of Golden Sun, Isaac's AT function could be done by anyone with the push power.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Well Isaac has made a comeback as of late on the hope that is Spring Man could be promoted, why not?

After all, from what I understand of Golden Sun, Isaac's AT function could be done by anyone with the push power.

Well, he uses other Psyenergy too.

But they're all things other characters can do.

 

[Guynamednelson]

Well Isaac has made a comeback as of late

It was already active before the ARMS announcement.

Well, he uses other Psyenergy too.

But they're all things other characters can do.

It's why I think Garet would be a better replacement for the AT than Felix.

 

[Dinoman96]

Geno had pretty much dropped off after Brawl too. His Smash 4 thread here didn't even make it to 100 pages. Even someone like Krystal, who everyone claims to be that nothing burger character everyone stopped caring about after Brawl, still had over 300 pages in her support thread.

The Mii costume and Sakurai endorsement really saved that character from falling into oblivion.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Geno had pretty much dropped off after Brawl too. His Smash 4 thread here didn't even make it to 100 pages. Even someone like Krystal, who everyone claims to be that nothing burger character everyone stopped caring about after Brawl, still had over 300 pages in her support thread.

The Mii costume and Sakurai endorsement really saved that character from falling into oblivion.

Yeah, during most of Smash 4's cycle, Geno's fanbase dwindled to very small numbers.

That said, thread responses aren't a good gauge of popularity considering you can easily get lots of posts with only a handful of people. Posts can also frequently come from detractors which happened commonly with the Ridley thread.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

More the reason why I think Geno isn't as likely as many says. Still expect he'll be an Mii costume again.

 

[StrawHatX]

More the reason why I think Geno isn't as likely as many says. Still expect he'll be an Mii costume again.

I think that’s the most likely case too. Him getting one of those upgraded costumes and a song. Especially if we happened to get a Paper Mario playable character.

I just think if Square was going to put another character in they would want one that would be more beneficial to them and promote a series they’re currently profiting from. But I don’t know.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

I think that’s the most likely case too. Him getting one of those upgraded costumes and a song. Especially if we happened to get a Paper Mario playable character.

I just think if Square was going to put another character in they would want one that would be more beneficial to them and promote a series they’re currently profiting from. But I don’t know.

This is where Sora comes to mind given how demanded he is but of course there's the whole thing with Disney and in the end they get the final say.

Also Neku since as of recent there were talks of an sequel occurring and this post saying "Won't get your soul crush", doubt its anything Smash though granted despite hearing how an character has been being used as an Base for Ness and some notably Rie speculating that could be Neku.

 

[Heoj]

I think that’s the most likely case too. Him getting one of those upgraded costumes and a song. Especially if we happened to get a Paper Mario playable character.

I just think if Square was going to put another character in they would want one that would be more beneficial to them and promote a series they’re currently profiting from. But I don’t know.

Heres where I personally heavily disagree, in my opinion i think that an upgraded costume just doesnt make any sense for Geno considering the fact that all mii costumes cost the same amount of money, so why would they remodel the already existing Geno costume and throw 1 or 2 songs on there. I think Geno is either going to be playable or the smash 4 costume comes back which i think is already pretty damn low since Geno could have come back with Hero, Banjo or Byleth.
And the idea that Square wouldnt want someone like Geno ive always found to be a bit strange. If Sakurai and Nintendo go to Square and ask for Geno, Square isnt gonna be like "nah how about (insert someone else)", like if Square rejects Geno I think there just wont be another square character in the fighters pass, since Sakurai and Nintendo wouldnt be looking for a Square character, they would be looking for specifically Geno.
I anyways doubt Square would reject Geno as they probably would accept it since Cloud and Hero are already in, but thats just my thought on the matter.

 

[StrawHatX]

Heres where I personally heavily disagree, in my opinion i think that an upgraded costume just doesnt make any sense for Geno considering the fact that all mii costumes cost the same amount of money, so why would they remodel the already existing Geno costume and throw 1 or 2 songs on there. I think Geno is either going to be playable or the smash 4 costume comes back which i think is already pretty damn low since Geno could have come back with Hero, Banjo or Byleth.
And the idea that Square wouldnt want someone like Geno ive always found to be a bit strange. If Sakurai and Nintendo go to Square and ask for Geno, Square isnt gonna be like "nah how about (insert someone else)", like if Square rejects Geno I think there just wont be another square character in the fighters pass, since Sakurai and Nintendo wouldnt be looking for a Square character, they would be looking for specifically Geno.
I anyways doubt Square would reject Geno as they probably would accept it since Cloud and Hero are already in, but thats just my thought on the matter.

Well, I think Geno is a special case. I’ll be honest and say I don’t think we’re getting another Square character. We already got Cloud returning and we got a DLC character.

I think the main reason the old Geno costume hasn’t shown up yet is because they’re reworking it. Geno’s proportions are very similar to Sans and Cuphead and they could make a costume look exactly like the character.

I just think if Sakurai and Nintendo was going to ask Square for another playable character they wouldn’t ask them about an old Mario character from a 24 year old. And I promise I don’t mean that as a slight against Geno. I think he’s a cool character and I’d think it would be awesome for all his loyal fans to see him playable.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Well, I think Geno is a special case. I’ll be honest and say I don’t think we’re getting another Square character. We already got Cloud returning and we got a DLC character.

I think the main reason the old Geno costume hasn’t shown up yet is because they’re reworking it. Geno’s proportions are very similar to Sans and Cuphead and they could make a costume look exactly like the character.

I just think if Sakurai and Nintendo was going to ask Square for another playable character they wouldn’t ask them about an old Mario character from a 24 year old. And I promise I don’t mean that as a slight against Geno. I think he’s a cool character and I’d think it would be awesome for all his loyal fans to see him playable.

Sakurai wants him in, so he'd certainly ask.

Nintendo on the other hand, might not. Geno may not even among the characters Sakurai is suggested either. He's got more than enough fan support that it's plausible they select him, though.

Nintendo =/= Sakurai opinion-wise. Nintendo suggests the character first, Sakurai weighs in on it as they talk. Then, if Sakurai likes the idea, they need to get licensing done where applicable. Any company could deny Sakurai the character too, so it's a 3-step process before final development of a character. Only 1/3 clearly want Geno playable in this particular context. 2/3 of it are the wildcard.

 

[StrawHatX]

Sakurai wants him in, so he'd certainly ask.

Nintendo on the other hand, might not. Geno may not even among the characters Sakurai is suggested either. He's got more than enough fan support that it's plausible they select him, though.

Nintendo =/= Sakurai opinion-wise. Nintendo suggests the character first, Sakurai weighs in on it as they talk. Then, if Sakurai likes the idea, they need to get licensing done where applicable. Any company could deny Sakurai the character too, so it's a 3-step process before final development of a character. Only 1/3 clearly want Geno playable in this particular context. 2/3 of it are the wildcard.

Yeah, I could see Sakurai wanting to do it for the fans. Nintendo and Square will do what they think will make sense the most financially. And I don’t think that only pertains to character sales, but promotion for said character/series. Geno promotes the Mario series which does nothing for Square.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Yeah, I could see Sakurai wanting to do it for the fans. Nintendo and Square will do what they think will make sense the most financially. And I don’t think that only pertains to character sales, but promotion for said character/series. Geno promotes the Mario series which does nothing for Square.

Same thing logically with a costume. Basically, if they have no plans to use Geno in even a SMRPG re-release/download for the Switch, they may not allow a costume being used either.

Financially, SE does get something out of a character or either kind of costume. Promotional-wise, it does nothing that we can confirm.

The thing is, it's still free money. So SE might still say yes. But for a costume, there's little reason for them to deny that, and they get more money if it's a deluxe, so that's clearly more logical in the end than returning the old costume. It also is one plausible explanation why it didn't come back before Pass 2. Because it's being reworked. Which also implies Pass 2 was started to be decided upon before Hero's presentation was recorded. So almost a year back at bare minimum. Assuming they even were going to get the Geno and Chocobo Hat costumes back, anyway. I think they're coming back(or Geno is playable/costume is Deluxe Geno), but I can't help but be skeptical on it coming back.

 

[Speed Weed]

honestly if it was nintendo who picked banjo, i could totally see geno make it in

and besides

we've gotten square's two biggest series out of the way now. the two jrpg giants they own that shaped them into what they are today are now both in the game. so in terms of possibilities for a third square enix rep? it's free real estate. this is where i think geno comes in. but if it's a deluxe mii, i honestly think they're gonna give it some extra bells and whistles compared to the other deluxe miis

and i'm not even a geno supporter. i'm neku gang all the way. i just wanted to throw in my two cents on the puppet

 

[StrawHatX]

honestly if it was nintendo who picked banjo, i could totally see geno make it in

and besides

we've gotten square's two biggest series out of the way now. the two jrpg giants they own that shaped them into what they are today are now both in the game. so in terms of possibilities for a third square enix rep? it's free real estate. this is where i think geno comes in. but if it's a deluxe mii, i honestly think they're gonna give it some extra bells and whistles compared to the other deluxe miis

and i'm not even a geno supporter. i'm neku gang all the way. i just wanted to throw in my two cents on the puppet

I really need to play TWEWY.

 

[BernkastelWitch]

My main issue with trying to think that Geno is likely is that he's in a very bizarre situation compared to other fighters. Outside of one cameo he hasn't been seen for decades and it feels like he's mostly survived due to Smash discussion. I also believe if we were to get a third Square rep, it wouldn't be him because SE may want a more relevant rep like 2B or even Neku and Geno is no Banjo-Kazooie before anyone says anything.

If it was a game or two ago I could have seen Geno get in but now it's much different.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Way I see it

if Square wanted to have another character after their most popular (Cloud) and the one that represented the very origin of the JRPG (Hero), they’d wanna pick someone up and coming like 2B (NieR Automata), a BD/OT rep, or Neku (TWEWY with it’s sudden resurgence in the spotlight). Maybe even their own Western-created character, Lara Croft (they own Eidos now). Geno doesn’t really fit into any of those esp considering he didn’t appear in the Superstar Saga 3DS remake.

 

[Dinoman96]

Way I see it

if Square wanted to have another character after their most popular (Cloud) and the one that represented the very origin of the JRPG (Hero), they’d wanna pick someone up and coming like 2B (NieR Automata), a BD/OT rep, or Neku (TWEWY with it’s sudden resurgence in the spotlight). Maybe even their own Western-created character, Lara Croft (they own Eidos now). Geno doesn’t really fit into any of those esp considering he didn’t appear in the Superstar Saga 3DS remake.

In hindsight, it makes a lot of sense that AlphaDream couldn't license Geno for the Superstar Saga remake considering that, you know, they were basically on the verge of collapse at that point.

 

[Spongeboob]

I want Neku in as much as the next guy, but I don't see him as likely...

Just came back from the future, where Sakurai just revealed the last DLC fighter. ARMS rep is Min Min and the rest of FPv2 is also noodle themed, but I'll leave the guessing on who they are to you

Spoiler: Mental Gymnastics

• This must mean Raz from Psychonauts is coming to Smash because Raz is associated with the human mind. And where does that come from? The brain! And what's another word for brain? That's right, the noodle! Also he's owned by Microsoft, and so is Banjo and he's in Smash. Therefore, Raz is in.
• Noctis (from Final Fantasy XV) is also in because his game has a cross promotion with Cup Noodles.
• Geno is in as well since he comes from a Mario game and Mario loves spaghetti, which has noodles.
• Mama Broodal is in because her name rhymes with noodle.
• A Sword/Shield rep is getting in because you can cook noodles in that game.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

In hindsight, it makes a lot of sense that AlphaDream couldn't license Geno for the Superstar Saga remake considering that, you know, they were basically on the verge of collapse at that point.

Still hoping Nintendo can buy it or salvage the remaining staff. I’m still sad about CING and their other now defunct sub studios whose names I forget

I want Neku in as much as the next guy, but I don't see him as likely...

Spoiler: Mental Gymnastics

• This must mean Raz from Psychonauts is coming to Smash because Raz is associated with the human mind. And where does that come from? The brain! And what's another word for brain? That's right, the noodle! Also he's owned by Microsoft, and so is Banjo and he's in Smash. Therefore, Raz is in.
• Noctis (from Final Fantasy XV) is also in because his game has a cross promotion with Cup Noodles.
• Geno is in as well since he comes from a Mario game and Mario loves spaghetti, which has noodles.
• Mama Broodal is in because her name rhymes with noodle.
• A Sword/Shield rep is getting in because you can cook noodles in that game.

Technically curry, not noodles, but noodles can be a curry ingredient

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

My main issue with trying to think that Geno is likely is that he's in a very bizarre situation compared to other fighters. Outside of one cameo he hasn't been seen for decades and it feels like he's mostly survived due to Smash discussion. I also believe if we were to get a third Square rep, it wouldn't be him because SE may want a more relevant rep like 2B or even Neku and Geno is no Banjo-Kazooie before anyone says anything.

If it was a game or two ago I could have seen Geno get in but now it's much different.

His last usage was the SNES Mini, which its lifespan ended in 2018. Possibly earlier than intended too. This would make sense why we got Spirits, since during 2015, it easy to license it since it'd help advertise a product that'll be active when Ultimate releases(or ideally active, anyway).

Collections count a lot for promotional usage too. What matters to companies for promotion is if the product of which their IP is in is remotely active. SMRPG was overall active during the right time. Now it's not. This could even be why there is no costume, since it no costumes came back for DLC, but also because there's nothing for them to promote. Maybe there is a SMRPG Switch release coming, and that'd be why they didn't release the costume/deluxe costume/character yet. The timing beforehand was poor for SE and they had to make different plans so everybody is happy(except sometimes the fans. But for companies, giving "more content" is generally what they expect will sell, not "it's only nothing or perfect item").

 

[Droodle]

Just came back from the future, where Sakurai just revealed the last DLC fighter. ARMS rep is Min Min and the rest of FPv2 is also noodle themed, but I'll leave the guessing on who they are to you

So this is how Noctis gets into Smash.

Through the power of delicious, nutritious, hot cup noodles sponsorships. Buy yours now for the low price of 1.99.

 

[MasterOfKnees]

My main issue with trying to think that Geno is likely is that he's in a very bizarre situation compared to other fighters. Outside of one cameo he hasn't been seen for decades and it feels like he's mostly survived due to Smash discussion. I also believe if we were to get a third Square rep, it wouldn't be him because SE may want a more relevant rep like 2B or even Neku and Geno is no Banjo-Kazooie before anyone says anything.

If it was a game or two ago I could have seen Geno get in but now it's much different.

Way I see it

if Square wanted to have another character after their most popular (Cloud) and the one that represented the very origin of the JRPG (Hero), they’d wanna pick someone up and coming like 2B (NieR Automata), a BD/OT rep, or Neku (TWEWY with it’s sudden resurgence in the spotlight). Maybe even their own Western-created character, Lara Croft (they own Eidos now). Geno doesn’t really fit into any of those esp considering he didn’t appear in the Superstar Saga 3DS remake.

Square Enix don't just get to pick which of their characters that get added to Smash though, that's thinking about the process in reverse. When Nintendo approach a company, they've already decided on which character they want, so the company isn't asked about who, they're simply asked to give a yes or a no to Nintendo's proposal.

Square are free to say no and suggest alternatives of course, Sakurai mentioned that if they had said no to Hero but yes to Slime he'd have accepted that, but in that case they'd also risk ending up with no one if Nintendo don't approve of the alternatives. After all, we know characters are included with demographics, variety and business strategies in mind, so you'd imagine that any alternatives Square would suggest would need to be characters with similar appeal to what was requested in the first place. That means that if Nintendo approach Square for Geno, they're not going to walk out of the discussion with 2B or Neku instead, in that scenario they'd probably be more likely to accept Crono over a more relevant choice since he ticks some of the same boxes as Geno.

Basically, my point is that Nintendo decide on what type of character they want before they even approach a company, so a decision like oldschool vs relevant isn't necessarily in Square's hands, depending on what Nintendo's idea behind wanting the character is of course. If a company won't give Nintendo what they're looking for, and they don't have/aren't willing to offer suitable alternatives, then Nintendo are simply going to find something similar to what they wanted somewhere else, either in-house or from another company, so there absolutely is something to be lost by rejecting their request.

Personally I think Geno's biggest hurdle is Nintendo themselves, if they've picked him then I'm actually pretty confident Square would accept, because the unique circumstances around the character means they likely don't have much reason not to.

 

[EricTheGamerman]

The issue for Geno has always been the opportunity cost issue for Nintendo and Sakurai. Final Fantasy and Dragon Quest aren't just massive series, they're massive series that have have defined Nintendo consoles and have massive fan bases in their own right. Passing on Cloud or Hero would have been, to be blunt, pretty dumb considering how much value they add to the game for certain people and how much those franchises can mean the world to certain people. And that's not exactly an issue that has been resolved. Square Enix has a ton of great and beloved titles, several of which with continued connections to Nintendo (Octopath Traveler and Bravely Default II have been positioned as two of the Switch's biggest third party releases) or have lit the world on fire (Nier's become a huge success story and 2B herself has turned into a new icon practically overnight) or are literal icons of gaming in of themselves (Lara Croft and Sora even if he technically is Disney).

Sure, Banjo & Kazooie were able to handle that opportunity cost question... but think of how much more they had going for them. They were previously owned by Nintendo outright, they had a top level Microsoft executive supporting their inclusion in Smash and even somewhat directly influencing people to believe in their possibility at the right time for the Smash Ballot, they were practically the mascots of Rare and by extension mascots of the N64 era for Nintendo, and they wholly represented a unique universe as the main characters of their game. Geno just doesn't really have any of that. He's got "Deuteragonist" of Super Mario RPG, a unique collaboration between Nintendo and Squaresoft that did well on release, fan support (polls well, but also doesn't get the same amount of more universal love that Banjo & Kazooie, King K. Rool, or even Ridley got... they all had detractors, but there's also just a much larger percentage of people who are either wholly apathetic to Geno or actively against him), and Sakurai having some interest in him... It's just not the most compelling set of circumstances for a fighter when other characters could be on the table. Being a end of life Mario RPG Deuteragonist that isn't even the titular character of his game since it's a Mario game first and foremost just isn't the most weight.

I won't be terribly surprised if Nintendo picks him, and I'm a big fan of Super Mario RPG, but I also don't have much expectation that they'd invest in him. At least Microsoft could choose to capitalize on the good will of Banjo & Kazooie in some way with a new game... but Square Enix can't really do much at all with Geno even with all the good will in the world unless they go all out on a Super Mario RPG 2 with Nintendo, and that's really their only benefit from including him. So I don't see Square Enix fighting for him any time soon either, and he has to absolutely get past the hurdle of actually being picked by Nintendo first. He's a fan request, sure, but so are 20 other popular and more marketable and inherently beneficial to Nintendo and/or the other companies involved. The time he has been requested isn't inherently some indicator of value or "deserving to be the next fan request to get in."

Edit: I also forgot to highlight the opportunity cost for the Mario series as an issue Nintendo may have with including Geno since I focused on Square Enix. Sure, Piranha Plant got in, but Piranha Plants are still clearly part of the increasingly curated Mario brand and also was more of a decision Sakurai made. They still have other Mario characters like Waluigi and Toad they could see value in including (With Waluigi also being one of those other fan favorites) or they may be more interested in pushing something like Paper Mario since that represents the current trend of Mario RPGs to them more so than the original Super Mario RPG, especially since Paper Mario is their Mario RPG brand they actively control all of compared to Super Mario RPG's split content rights.