Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[Gazorpazorpfield]

Tbf, a character's Smashboards support thread is proooooooobably not the most accurate metric for measuring popularity. If it was:

- Smash fans would be more excited for Lip from Panel De Pon than Crash Bandicoot,

- Shantae would be met with nine times the excitement of Doomslayer, and

- The combined hype of Master Chief, Sora, Dante, 2B, and Waluigi would pale in comparison to the Earth-shattering reveal of Dixie Kong.

Tl;dr: "noooooooo you can't just use a message board to determine the popularity of beloved gaming icons!!!"

"haha smashboard go brrrrrrr"

 

[KingofPhantoms]

I dunno, I've still seen Geno getting brought up fairly often outside of this website.

There's plenty of Youtube videos discussing him, plenty of fan animations that pay tribute to him (even just as a cameo. I can remember some Newgrounds projects doing this back in the day). Heck, if you watch the Nintendo NYC reaction to Piranha Plant's reveal, you'll hear more than a few people in the audience shouting "GENO!" before the actual newcomer shows up.

He's still a definite dark horse candidate, but there's other circles out there where he's well known.

 

[EricTheGamerman]

I just figure that, given how early we found out about an ARMS character being in Smash, there might be another reveal afterwards, even if it's a trailer with no gameplay like Joker or Terry's initial reveals.

The current situation with ARMS seems like a similar situation with Lucas in Smash 4 or Banjo in Ultimate, where we knew about them well in advance, and as we got to the presentation that went into more detail about what would be in their update, there were other reveals alongside that. (Roy/Ryu and Terry, respectively) They revealed that we'd be getting an ARMS character roughly three months before the character would actually get a full reveal or be released, which seems unusual.

Plus, it seems weird to have the only Smash reveal at what would have been E3 be a character that we've known about (sort of) for months, whose reveal is inevitably going to divide the fanbase as people have been hoping for Spring Man, Ribbon Girl, Min Min, Twintelle, Max Brass, Dr. Coyle, etc. as a result of the announcement that it's an ARMS character, and what it could mean for assist trophies, spirits, and characters who aren't the protagonist or mascot.

Here's the thing, I don't think you can look at this along the lines of traditional E3 anyway given that it just doesn't exist. Like, we're likely to only get an ARMS "breakdown video" alongside the formal trailer for the fighter that may have originally debuted at E3 since it's likely our ARMS rep would have the same breakdown as the past 4 characters post an E3 announcement. We don't know if there was ever another announcement planned for E3, and if there was, there's no telling how that has changed since then. They could do a "Smash presentation" that showed the next fighter and decide to take a secondary fighter reveal, or they could just as easily show the ARMS fighter and hold off on a second reveal that may not have ever been planned for E3 (It seems like a decent bet, but Smash has never gone on for so long post launch, so who knows). Also, Sakurai and Nintendo don't really care that much about the speculation community so as to plan announcements so exclusively around their impulses and/or "sanity."

Again, I'm totally down for a tease, but I'm also not really counting on it given everything going on. I would hope 6 months into their two year plan they have a second character at least ready to tease, but given what 2020 has been so far, who knows.

 

[Cosmic77]

Tbf, a character's Smashboards support thread is proooooooobably not the most accurate metric for measuring popularity. If it was:

- Smash fans would be more excited for Lip from Panel De Pon than Crash Bandicoot,

- Shantae would be met with nine times the excitement of Doomslayer, and

- The combined hype of Master Chief, Sora, Dante, 2B, and Waluigi would pale in comparison to the Earth-shattering reveal of Dixie Kong.

Tl;dr: "noooooooo you can't just use a message board to determine the popularity of beloved gaming icons!!!"

"haha smashboard go brrrrrrr"

Ehhh... I get your point, but I don't think all of these are completely accurate.

I think a better way of phrasing this is that characters like Lip and Geno would make a lot of people on Smashboards happy while most people outside this site wouldn't care in the slightest. That's because the people here go a little deeper in Smash speculation than most.

 

[Will]

If there was ever a time to add Geno, now would be the time.

The year is 2020. Geno doesn't get in Smash Ultimate. Ten years later, when Super Smash Bros. Slam Jam is announced:

If there was ever a time to add Geno, now would be the time.

 

[Gazorpazorpfield]

I dunno, I've still seen Geno getting brought up fairly often outside of this website.

There's plenty of Youtube videos discussing him, plenty of fan animations that pay tribute to him (even just as a cameo. I can remember some Newgrounds projects doing this back in the day). Heck, if you watch the Nintendo NYC reaction to Piranha Plant's reveal, you'll hear more than a few people in the audience shouting "GENO!" before the actual newcomer shows up.

He's still a definite dark horse candidate, but there's other circles out there where he's well known.

Oh, of course Geno's not just a Smashboards thing - I meant that his hiatus on this site during Sm4sh wasn't a huge hit to his overall perception. Sorry I didn't make that clear

 

[Dinoman96]

Tbf, a character's Smashboards support thread is proooooooobably not the most accurate metric for measuring popularity. If it was:

- Smash fans would be more excited for Lip from Panel De Pon than Crash Bandicoot,

- Shantae would be met with nine times the excitement of Doomslayer, and

- The combined hype of Master Chief, Sora, Dante, 2B, and Waluigi would pale in comparison to the Earth-shattering reveal of Dixie Kong.

Tl;dr: "noooooooo you can't just use a message board to determine the popularity of beloved gaming icons!!!"

"haha smashboard go brrrrrrr"

If anything, I think the best way to gauge a character's popularity is through the game itself lol

Like we know that K. Rool, Ridley, Banjo & Kazooie and Simon were all direct results of the Smash ballot. But then you have someone like say Krystal, who as I said before, is frequently used as an example of a character that was popular during the Brawl era but sputtered out afterwards. But the fact that she even has a physical appearance at all in Ultimate, 13 years after her last appearance in a Star Fox game, is an indicator that she still had a notable fanbase that pulled for her, even if it ultimately wasn't enough to squeeze her in as playable. Same thing with Isaac.

Likewise, even though Geno's fandom had too gone underground for most of Smash 4, he still was seemingly popular enough to be directly acknowledged by Sakurai, with the Mii Gunner outfit.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Tbf, a character's Smashboards support thread is proooooooobably not the most accurate metric for measuring popularity. If it was:

- Smash fans would be more excited for Lip from Panel De Pon than Crash Bandicoot,

- Shantae would be met with nine times the excitement of Doomslayer, and

- The combined hype of Master Chief, Sora, Dante, 2B, and Waluigi would pale in comparison to the Earth-shattering reveal of Dixie Kong.

Tl;dr: "noooooooo you can't just use a message board to determine the popularity of beloved gaming icons!!!"

"haha smashboard go brrrrrrr"

I think this is solid proof that the average Lip fan is strong as 10 men. C'mon Crash people get your **** together, two remakes in the last 5 years and you aren't blasting that thread to heaven?

 

[Mushroomguy12]

Tbf, a character's Smashboards support thread is proooooooobably not the most accurate metric for measuring popularity. If it was:

- Smash fans would be more excited for Lip from Panel De Pon than Crash Bandicoot,

- Shantae would be met with nine times the excitement of Doomslayer, and

- The combined hype of Master Chief, Sora, Dante, 2B, and Waluigi would pale in comparison to the Earth-shattering reveal of Dixie Kong.

Tl;dr: "noooooooo you can't just use a message board to determine the popularity of beloved gaming icons!!!"

"haha smashboard go brrrrrrr"

But Dixie Kong would be an Earth-shattering reveal. As would Shantae and Lip.

 

[Among Waddle Dees]

If anything, I think the best way to gauge a character's popularity is through the game itself lol

I disagree. There can be inferred patterns by the game's inclusions, but there are also discrepancies where popularity cannot possibly be the primary factor behind those decisions.
Besides, that gauge isn't completely useful when characters that have not been in the game before get added.

 

[EricTheGamerman]

I think this is solid proof that the average Lip fan is strong as 10 men. C'mon Crash people get your **** together, two remakes in the last 5 years and you aren't blasting that thread to heaven?

Well, Crash fans have actually had new games to play and satisfy them, Lip and Geno don't have anything like that at all lol.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Smash fans would be more excited for Lip from Panel De Pon than Crash Bandicoot,

Lip is popular? Like, anywhere?

 

[Cosmic77]

People often make the mistake of putting popularity above everything else.

There are a lot of other things that factor into the decision process. How relevant is this character today? How many people would recognize this character? Does this character have moveset potential? How difficult would it be to obtain the rights for this character? These are all questions that we need to ask in addition to popularity when looking at any character.

Now does that mean every character needs to meet all of this criteria? Of course not, but don't say things like, "Well, K. Rool and Banjo got in, so clearly relevancy isn't something Sakurai considers."

 

[Megadoomer]

Lip is popular? Like, anywhere?

They're going by Smashboards threads, where Lip's thread has more posts and views than Crash's thread.

Like they said, Smashboards threads aren't a 100% accurate measurement of a character's popularity.

 

[KingofPhantoms]

The year is 2020. Geno doesn't get in Smash Ultimate. Ten years later, when Super Smash Bros. Slam Jam is announced:

If there was ever a time to add Geno, now would be the time.

Joke all you want, but I actually think he's raising a fair point, there. After all, this is the entry that's gone above and beyond for it's roster. Ultimate is the game that has added the biggest fan favorites with tremendous amounts of requests.

That's also not to mention the fact that some of them had been fading into obscurity or were largely irrelevant in games at the time they were finally added. So for as many problems as Geno has going for him, I'll concede that, yeah, now is an ideal time to add him, if he's ever gonna be added in the first place.

 

[Trevenant]

I seriously can't believe were less then three weeks away from the ARMS reveal and maybe FP7.

tbh we shouldn't be acting like it's confirmed to be or the most plausible option. We don't know anything aside from its June and that it could just as easily be early or late as sakurai showcase dates often vary. The only real argument I see used is for the anniversary but Smash avoids those so much it seems intentional.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Well, Crash fans have actually had new games to play and satisfy them, Lip and Geno don't have anything like that at all lol.

Idk man playing games is fun and all but if you don't start theorycrafting about how a new game helps your character's Smash odds, you ain't really a fan, are you now?

 

[Mushroomguy12]

If Geno does get in the game, I'm expecting something like the end of the Banjo trailer where he gets a still image and all of the characters are celebrating

View attachment 273129

Speaking of, what the hell are half of these reactions?

Meta Knight's looks uncomfortable, Mega Man has that blank stare, and Duck Hunt is just twerking. aNd ThAt'S gOoD eNoUgH tO SaY iN tWo ThReAdS!

The great thing about these unnatural poses that don't have the characters looking directly at Banjo is that I can photoshop in characters (that should have been added) and have it look relatively normal.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

The great thing about these unnatural poses that don't have the characters looking directly at Banjo is that I can photoshop in characters (that should have been added) and have it look relatively normal.

I love how Villager and Wario are just floating.

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

I always did like the touch of the Duck Hunt Dog turned away, presumably still upset about Banjo-Kazooie knocking him over.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

I always did like the touch of the Duck Hunt Dog turned away, presumably still upset about Banjo-Kazooie knocking him over.

Looks like he's trying to play with Donkey Kong, who clearly doesn't care.

 

[Droodle]

Joke all you want, but I actually think he's raising a fair point, there. After all, this is the entry that's gone above and beyond for it's roster Ultimate is the game that has added the biggest fan favorites with tremendous amounts of requests.

That's also not to mention the fact that some of them had been fading into obscurity or were largely irrelevant in games at the time they were finally added. So for as many problems as Geno has going for him, I'll concede that, yeah, now is an ideal time to add him, if he's ever gonna be added in the first place.

Yeah, I think now is the ideal and only time to add him. I'm pretty sure if Geno doesn't get in/gets costumed this time, most of his fans will leave and only the few hardcore ones will be there for him in the next Smash (whenever that is). There won't be enough to justify his inclusion, and Geno already struggles in areas not linked to fan-demand.

Besides if there is a next Smash game, most people will be arguing about which characters they want to return, rather then new characters.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Besides if there is a next Smash game, most people will be arguing about which characters they want to return, rather then new characters.

Yeah, the other issue with a roster reset is that a lot of newcomers people want now will have no place on a roster that lacks key characters in certain series.


EDIT: I expect that if there's a more random character like Wii Fit Trainer or Piranha Plant, it'll be massacred.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

I could be wrong later, but I really feel as though this might be my last speculating period. I’m drawn to the innate hype of Ultimate bringing so many of my favorites together, and considering the next game is sure to not reach the same heights in that regard, I likely will not sustain the interest I currently have.

That, for me at least, is why I’m more focused about what’s going on now, and the probability of certain characters happening for DLC.

As far as Geno goes, I personally feel that it’s this game or nothing at this point. He’s been a part of the consciousness of the fanbase for quite some time, so to see him STILL not get into the biggest of the Smash games would be telling.

What cripples Geno, in my humble opinion, is the fact that literally all he actually has going for him is fan demand. It isn’t to say that’s bad, but other characters, from Square Enix or not, could make a better case to be included for Nintendo at the moment.

 

[skylanders fan]

I really wonder though how much they can cut in the next smash I mean we just got characters like and unless licensing issues I doubt they would want to cut characters like that

 

[Pokelego999]

What's happening?

 

[Animegamingnerd]

Tbf, a character's Smashboards support thread is proooooooobably not the most accurate metric for measuring popularity. If it was:

- Smash fans would be more excited for Lip from Panel De Pon than Crash Bandicoot,

- Shantae would be met with nine times the excitement of Doomslayer, and

- The combined hype of Master Chief, Sora, Dante, 2B, and Waluigi would pale in comparison to the Earth-shattering reveal of Dixie Kong.

Tl;dr: "noooooooo you can't just use a message board to determine the popularity of beloved gaming icons!!!"

"haha smashboard go brrrrrrr"

I've legit seen people say Shantae is bigger and more iconic then 2B, on this very thread along with people never hearing of Persona before Joker got into Smash. I enjoy coming to this site, the posters here, and so on. But some of you can really be out of touched.

 

[Garteam]

I do think people are somewhat downplaying Geno's popularity. A lot of people tend to think Geno is this weird thing that only took off on Smashboards, but that's not really true. He's also pretty commonly brought up at places like /v/ and YouTube when the subject of Smash comes up. He also does very well on most large, interwebsite fan polls. Now, I know fan polls can be somewhat misleading and may not accurately reflect demand, but I think the consistency in Geno's results speaks a lot about his chances. Even Maximilian Dood, someone who doesn't follow speculation that closely and is far more interested in Smash's impact on the general FGC, acknowledged Geno in his Golden Era of Smash video.

 

[SKX31]

I love how Villager and Wario are just floating.

Villager (Or do you mean "Macho Man picking up Tree Branches"?) had to go. His planet needed him.

Besides if there is a next Smash game, most people will be arguing about which characters they want to return, rather then new characters.

I'm pretty confident that there will be a next Smash game (whether this decade or next) since it's too big of a cash cow for Nintendo to quit entirely on. But Smash 6 depends heavily on what Nintendo does with Ultimate. Will FP2 be the last updates at all? Or will Nintendo choose to go with Ultimate DX on the next console (or even continue updating / turning Ultimate into a live-service game)? Also, if Sakurai's done-zo after Ultimate, they'll have to find a competent heir (easier said than done). Any way, any Smash 6 will be a long way off. I'm going with "late this decade at the very earliest".

Yeah, the other issue with a roster reset is that a lot of newcomers people want now will have no place on a roster that lacks key characters in certain series.

EDIT: I expect that if there's a more random character like Wii Fit Trainer or Piranha Plant, it'll be massacred.

It'll be incredibly difficult, but in this scenario Nintendo will also need newcomers to try and bring some hype (even if they can't hope to match Ultimate). It's also fully possible that they'll further revamp veterans (or do a Mortal Kombat and include selectable "variants" that give characters different special moves. A la custom moves in Smash 4, but grouped into three presets one can choose from before the match).

But we'll get there when we get there. And it's a long way off.

 

[Pokelego999]

I've legit seen people say Shantae is bigger and more iconic then 2B, on this very thread along with people never hearing of Persona before Joker got into Smash. I enjoy coming to this site, the posters here, and so on. But some of you can really be out of touched.

Honestly I think Shantae is more iconic, nier automata is new and only one game. Unless it's a minecraft type game, which it is not, I don't think she's gonna be icon status just yet.

 

[Speed Weed]

I've legit seen people say Shantae is bigger and more iconic then 2B, on this very thread along with people never hearing of Persona before Joker got into Smash. I enjoy coming to this site, the posters here, and so on. But some of you can really be out of touched.

i agree with the first point but why is not having heard of persona such a crime

 

[Animegamingnerd]

Honestly I think Shantae is more iconic, nier automata is new and only one game. Unless it's a minecraft type game, which it is not, I don't think she's gonna be icon status just yet.

I don't know about that, Automata has sold 4 million copies, was more critically acclaim then at least most Shantae games, and I've seen way more fanart and cosplay of 2B in general especially at cons.

i agree with the first point but why is not having heard of persona such a crime

Its not so much a crime, as it kind of tells me that some people just didn't pay attention to the most critically acclaim on platforms outside of Nintendo, like P5 was right there with BOTW and Mario Odyssey for the highest rated game of 2017, last suprise became both a popular song and meme after the game had came out, so I just find't weird that a gaming forum didn't hear about generally agreed upon one of 2017's best games until Joker's reveal.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Honestly I think Shantae is more iconic, nier automata is new and only one game. Unless it's a minecraft type game, which it is not, I don't think she's gonna be icon status just yet.

I disagree, I'm fairly certain that more people can recognize 2B than Shantae. Not that it speaks negatively of either character, but a triple-A multiplat Platinum RPG-actioner is always going to be more mainstream than a mid-budget pseudo-indie platformer.

Jesus the amount of hyphens and descriptors in that sentence.

 

[Pokelego999]

I don't know about that, Automata has sold 4 million copies, was more critically acclaim then at least most Shantae games, and I've seen way more fanart and cosplay of 2B in general especially at cons.



Its not so much a crime, as it kind of tells me that some people just didn't pay attention to the most critically acclaim on platforms outside of Nintendo, like P5 was right there with BOTW and Mario Odyssey for the highest rated game of 2017, last suprise became both a popular song and meme after the game had came out, so I just find't weird that a gaming forum didn't hear about generally agreed upon one of 2017's best games until Joker's reveal.

I say more known history wise, you're talking more known popularity wise, so fair enough I guess. But even then it's still one game. I don't think it's enough to garner it a spot, as the 3rd parties in smash at least have histories and more than one game. Heck, even when bayonetta was added she had two games. It's not outside the realm of possibilty, but it's not likely.

 

[Wunderwaft]

Speaking of Shantae didn't her new game release today on PC and consoles?
I'm a bit surprised there wasn't much talk about it, it kinda went under my radar until someone told me the game just came out.

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

Speaking of Shantae didn't her new game release today on PC and consoles?
I'm a bit surprised there wasn't much talk about it, it kinda went under my radar until someone told me the game just came out.

Its has had the bad luck of technically being released months ago for iOS/macOS and thus some of buzz has worn off a bit. What doesn't help is that in Nintendo circles (where Shantae is pretty big) attention has been monopolized by Xenoblade Chronicles DE for as far as major releases and even Bug Fables coming out yesterday getting press as a semi-prominent indie release.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Speaking of Shantae didn't her new game release today on PC and consoles?
I'm a bit surprised there wasn't much talk about it, it kinda went under my radar until someone told me the game just came out.

Didn't know it existed.

 

[Droodle]

Iconicity does not equal popularity, although the two can be correlated. For example, I would go as far as to say someone like Bomberman is a super iconic character (probably more so then any of the DLC characters we've gotten in Ultimate barring maybe Erdrick), but as a character he isn't nearly as popular as any of the DLC characters we ended up with. Both iconicity and popularity are valid ways to get into Smash.

That said, I don't know who would argue that Shantae is more iconic then 2B. I don't even think 2B is a huge gaming icon (though if Nier/2B continue to grow then I could see it happening), but she's definitely a popular character and far more popular then Shantae.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

I say more known history wise, you're talking more known popularity wise, so fair enough I guess. But even then it's still one game. I don't think it's enough to garner it a spot, as the 3rd parties in smash at least have histories and more than one game. Heck, even when bayonetta was added she had two games. It's not outside the realm of possibilty, but it's not likely.

2B and NieR is "one game" in the sense that Persona 5 is "one game".

The original NieR and NieR Replicant, which come as a spin-off from the Drakengard series are a part of the series that NieR Automata is also a part of. It's not just one game.

I can understand liking Shantae and saying it has "history". But there's a difference between "having history" and being "historic". Shantae as a series was dormant for quite some time since it originally released. I'm not quite sure that it's historic, nor does being "historic" gatekeep particular characters.

NieR Automata meanwhile was nominated for GOTY when it released and, as of March 30th, 2020, has sold 4.5 million copies. That's a substantial success. That said, in comparison to Shantae, I can't exactly say. I haven't found any data on series sales.

I would say if Joker can find a way into Smash, there's really not much that would suggest anything necessarily negative about her as a Smash pick.

I think she'd be pretty cool. She has plenty of weapons, a bot that follows her and can attack in a variety of ways, and a constant stream of gunfire. Plus...the music is spectacular.

 

[Pokelego999]

Iconicity does not equal popularity, although the two can be correlated. For example, I would go as far as to say someone like Bomberman is a super iconic character (probably more so then any of the DLC characters we've gotten in Ultimate barring maybe Erdrick), but as a character he isn't nearly as popular as any of the DLC characters we ended up with. Both iconicity and popularity are valid ways to get into Smash.

That said, I don't know who would argue that Shantae is more iconic then 2B. I don't even think 2B is a huge gaming icon (though if Nier/2B continue to grow then I could see it happening), but she's definitely a popular character and far more popular then Shantae.

She wins on popularity. On history she dosen't do the best. I guess it depends on your viewpoint.