Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[Droodle]

Playable Bionis for Smash!

And don't give me any of the "Too big for Smash" nonsense.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

Still predicting and suspecting Spring Man to be the character.

Also the possibility of the Hero route.

 

[PeridotGX]

Surprised no one has brought up Toad as an echo fighter for Mario. They have pretty much all of the same abilities with the exception of Cape. It could work perfectly.

that would be dumb

All I know is, whoever the ARMS character is, people will say it was extremely obvious to anyone with half a brain, which totally includes me. Ignore all the posts I deleted, of course I could tell it was [REDACTED] all along.

It was obvious that they would choose Barq (not Byte, just Barq). He's the fan favorite!

 

[EricTheGamerman]

I mean, realistically, it is possible they are just restock dates of course. And because of that, the release date windows I posted are very much on shaky ground.

And yeah, there is certainly a possibility that COVID-19 might delay things even further. It certainly had impact on production and such, and I'm sure its effects will still be shown for a couple of months.

However, the data showing a correlation between post-Smash amiibo waves and character releases dates I would argue is irrefutable.

View attachment 273053
When you look at the difference in days between an amiibo wave and character launch, the gap is only a couple of weeks and some change away from each other at maximum, or a couple days at minimum. I think this shows that all waves at least launch near a DLC character's release in some form.

Not only that, but when you convert the values into a universal scale, and make an equation, those dates fit well as a linear equation.

Spoiler: Picture of Graph

View attachment 273055

The r^2 is also very close to 1! Which means that the line fits the data well.

So I think, by itself, the assumption that this requires game updates in order to work adds unnecessary complexity to the explanation, as I feel all amiibo waves stand on their own.

I mean, I appreciate the statistical approach... but you're not painting the whole picture so as to better fit your conclusion. Restocks and Brand New Amiibo are not the same thing and are really more of separate variables. You would need to include all prior restocks to have a true representation of "all Amiibo releases versus time." You can't pick and choose which ones fit. Brand new Amiibo releases inherently require Ultimate to be updated to reflect the Amiibo and were clearly part of a coordinated effort to have content releasing at the same time. The Amiibo restock was actually planned for April originally: https://twitter.com/AmiiboNews/status/1232039807695622144.

Whereas our ARMS character has absolutely no evidence of being delayed or planned for a release in April. The restocks just got pushed back because of production issues given current events and thus leads us to the fact that restocks are not indicative of newcomer release dates.

I'm not arguing about whether or not FEH was a success. I'm saying that the amount of money it makes shouldn't be used to gauge it's popularity.

People can spend an infinite amount of cash on FEH, but 3H only has so much content you can purchase. That's why I believe the sales of console games are more important when judging the popularity of a franchise.

Money is money is my point. A more profitable release, with even less effort required than most of the other titles, is the preferable reality for Nintendo. It makes sense why they'd continue to invest in Fire Emblem given the fact that despite a smaller player base, it makes tons of money and outperforms every other mobile title Nintendo has released thus far. Widespread popularity is nice, but 2 million downloads of a free to start app where nobody invests any money is also not necessarily a huge positive for Nintendo. Money is the motivator for a corporation like Nintendo first and foremost, Fire Emblem may not be the "most popular and wide reaching" but on the mobile market it is the most profitable by a huge margin.

 

[Goombaic]

that would be dumb

What the **** that post was from another thread over a year ago why reply to it now?

 

[Nap_]

Yeah, in a normal speculation context, Springman is the obvious choice, but this time is a very special case. His current AT status, the 'guess who' teaser, fighting games are a genre based in the characters and the protagonist role is something blurry, another fighters like Min Min seeming more popular than him, second pass was not planned at the game launch... And Sakurai said in his column that the ARMS fighter is a 'special request' from the developers, (What's special, someone different or the AT promotion?) It's not like if Nintendo said 'The next character is from Devil May Cry' guess who', there are some factors and context to keep in mind, if it's not Spingman it won't be a great surprise at all. He was speculated for base game without a doubt but now the context is different.
An ARMS fighter is a very special thing. If is Springman AT trophies- spirit upgrades are possible for the rest of the pass. If not, the poster boy won't be chosen for the first time, something very weird.
Like choosing Raiden but not Snake.

 

[KingofPhantoms]

Zelda's been in an odd spot Brawl.

Every character the franchise has had as of Melee is one of the main three players, a variation of them, or, in Sheik's case, an alter ego. It remained that way in Brawl, with the addition of Toon Link in favor of Young Link, didn't change at all in Wii U and 3DS, and the only real change in Ultimate was that it brought Young Link back without removing Toon Link. Other than that, all we got was different versions of the "main" Triforce wielders.

Not taking any fan-rules into account, here, but with how that's remained consistent for three games straight, it's hard to gauge who, if anyone, could be Zelda's next newcomer, if anyone even has a say in the matter and a desire to make that happen in the first place. I'd want it to be Tetra, personally, but there are many characters you could look at who could just as easily happen instead.

 

[PeridotGX]

What the **** that post was from another thread over a year ago why reply to it now?

sometimes when I'm bored, I reply to ancient posts and see if anyone notices.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

Springman is the obvious choice, but this time is a very special case

If is Springman AT trophies- spirit upgrades are possible for the rest of the pass. If not, the poster boy won't be chosen for the first time, something very weird.

Assist promotions though, just another so called fan rule as you guys would call it.

Also Spring Man alongside Minmin is said developers or whatever favorite characters.

 

[Nap_]

Assist promotions though, just another so called fan rule as you guys would call it.

Also Spring Man alongside Minmin is said developers or whatever favorite characters.

I enjoy how Ultimate broke so many of these fan rules, guessing tools or ideas in the very first minute. Starting the second pass with a character who whatever the outcome is something without precedents, and giving it to us as a bone for two months, makes me happy.

 

[Digital Hazard]

I enjoy how Ultimate broke so many of these fan rules, guessing tools or ideas in the very first minute. Starting the second pass with a character who whatever the outcome is something without precedents, and giving it to us as a bone for two months, makes me happy.

Cloud

"But Final Fantasy used to be Nintendo!"

But Cloud wasn't, and Sakurai didn't even kept in mind his appearances in spinoffs and KH when choosing him.

 

[Cosmic77]

I do think it's a little funny how our very first character for the second pass was a first-party from an already repped game. I remember a few people saying that Byleth and the missing 3H Spirits should taken as a sign to everyone that we wouldn't get many first-parties, and that the only games that had a chance were those coming out in the future — aka the ones that have no Spirits.

I wonder what Sakurai would say if we showed him a list of all these rules we've made over the past two years. Probably something close to, "Truthfully, most of these weren't intentional."

 

[Droodle]

As much as I do want it to be Max Brass, I do think Springman will end up being the fighter. He's still the face of the franchise, with him appearing in all the promotional footage for the game and he's still the main character of that planned ARMS graphic novel, and not to mention they still clearly view him as the mascot alongside Ribbon Girl with last Party Crash being between the two and being called "The Battle for Stardom". Really the only thing against him are fan-rules.

I also hate how much misinformation there is on Min-Min's popularity. She's definitely popular don't get me wrong, but a ton of people use the ARMS Party Crash Bash as justification that she's the most popular character. First of all from what I can read on the ARMS wiki, the Party Crash's aren't really meant to be taken as popularity contests. If you play something like FEH, it's similar to the Voting Gauntlets (AKA it's more of a fun thing where any character can really win, like for example Camilla beat Lyn). Not everyone faced off against everyone else either. If you do still take it as a popularity contest, then Min-Min barely beat Springtron (51% vs 49%) compared to Min-Min vs Ninjara (52% vs 47%), and I doubt a ton of people would argue that Springtron is one of the most popular characters in the game (even moreso then Ninjara).

So unless the plan was to always use the Party Crash Bash winner (regardless of their true popularity) as the ARMS rep, I can't really see it being Min-Min as much as before.
IMO, the ARMS rep is (in the order of likelihood):
Spring-Man > Ribbon-Girl > Max-Brass > Min-Min >Twintelle/Ninjara > Everyone else.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

Cloud

"But Final Fantasy used to be Nintendo!"

But Cloud wasn't, and Sakurai didn't even kept in mind his appearances in spinoffs and KH when choosing him.

"But Cloud made brief appearances on some Final Fantasy games that were on Nintendo consoles!".

https://nintendowire.com/news/2015/11/23/cloud-strifes-nintendo-appearances/

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Honestly I think Zelda only has one problem.


There's no clear front runner.

There are lots of popular Zelda characters but there are so many choices that demand is fractured. Compare things to K. Rool and Ridley where they were far and away the fan favorite character to add next. Who do you add next? Skull Kid? Midna? Ghirahim? Impa? None of that is helped by those who believe Zelda shouldn't have anyone outside the main trio (which I think is lame).

I think if a Zelda newcomer is gonna see any success, the fandom's gonna have to rally behind one character and push them hardcore (while still supporting their favorites).

If I had to choose, I'd say Midna and Skull Kid would be our best bets for that, but who knows...

 

[KingofPhantoms]

Honestly I think Zelda only has one problem.


There's no clear front runner.

There are lots of popular Zelda characters but there are so many choices that demand is fractured. Compare things to K. Rool and Ridley where they were far and away the fan favorite character to add next. Who do you add next? Skull Kid? Midna? Ghirahim? Impa? None of that is helped by those who believe Zelda shouldn't have anyone outside the main trio (which I think is lame).

I think if a Zelda newcomer is gonna see any success, the fandom's gonna have to rally behind one character and push them hardcore (while still supporting their favorites).

If I had to choose, I'd say Midna and Skull Kid would be our best bets for that, but who knows...

A big issue all of these characters have is that they aren't as recurring in the series as the three key players.

Impa and Skull Kid come the closest on that front, but Impa's popularity seems to be kinda "eh". She's liked among Zelda fans, but you don't see many people rallying to see her character show up more often, let alone join the battle in Smash.

The rest are Ensemble Darkhorses from their debut (and in most cases, their only respective appearance outside of spin-offs) games with varying degrees of popularity. They're all really beloved characters and seem to be pretty well known among gaming fans, even outside the Zelda/Nintendo circle to an extent, buuut the only one who's getting much support on the Smash scene is Skull Kid. Being from a considerably older and popular entry in the series might have something to do with that, and it also helps that he's actually appeared in multiple mainline Zelda games (albeit, none of his other appearances are nearly as iconic as when he took center stage in Majora's Mask). Even then, he currently has the issue of being an Assist Trophy. Hope and rallying support for the character might see a significant increase again if Spring Man happens, much like how people would expect to happen to Waluigi in the same event.

The one I'm personally rooting for is Tetra, but she has a more peculiar standing than the others. I don't think she's likely, but I wouldn't ever dismiss the possibility, either.

 

[Gribbo]

Yeah, in a normal speculation context, Springman is the obvious choice, but this time is a very special case. His current AT status, the 'guess who' teaser, fighting games are a genre based in the characters and the protagonist role is something blurry, another fighters like Min Min seeming more popular than him, second pass was not planned at the game launch... And Sakurai said in his column that the ARMS fighter is a 'special request' from the developers, (What's special, someone different or the AT promotion?) It's not like if Nintendo said 'The next character is from Devil May Cry' guess who', there are some factors and context to keep in mind, if it's not Spingman it won't be a great surprise at all. He was speculated for base game without a doubt but now the context is different.
An ARMS fighter is a very special thing. If is Springman AT trophies- spirit upgrades are possible for the rest of the pass. If not, the poster boy won't be chosen for the first time, something very weird.
Like choosing Raiden but not Snake.

Does that mean Spring Man will be in Playstation All-Stars Battle Royale 2?

 

[Michael the Spikester]

Does that mean Spring Man will be in Playstation All-Stars Battle Royale 2?

Nah fam more like it'll be Minmin or Max Brass in PSASBR2.

 

[Nap_]

Does that mean Spring Man will be in Playstation All-Stars Battle Royale 2?

And Geno.
Sorry.

 

[epicmartin7]

I mean, I appreciate the statistical approach... but you're not painting the whole picture so as to better fit your conclusion. Restocks and Brand New Amiibo are not the same thing and are really more of separate variables. You would need to include all prior restocks to have a true representation of "all Amiibo releases versus time." You can't pick and choose which ones fit. Brand new Amiibo releases inherently require Ultimate to be updated to reflect the Amiibo and were clearly part of a coordinated effort to have content releasing at the same time. The Amiibo restock was actually planned for April originally: https://twitter.com/AmiiboNews/status/1232039807695622144.

Whereas our ARMS character has absolutely no evidence of being delayed or planned for a release in April. The restocks just got pushed back because of production issues given current events and thus leads us to the fact that restocks are not indicative of newcomer release dates.

Alright, I should probably clarify that the x-variable only includes amiibo waves with brand new amiibo right out of the gate. So because of that, everything regarding the data is as defined as possible. Meaning, the inclusion of other amiibo restocks is unnecessary.

My predictions for the release dates were only made with the preemptive assumption that this restock date is also a new amiibo wave. As many restocks have happened in the past alongside amiibo waves.

However, I do agree that we do not know for sure. That's why when I made the initial predictions, I made sure to say "don't take too much stock into this." As the prediction was only valid for this special case.

And Ultimate doesn't always require updates. iirc, I know someone was working with a modded Joker amiibo CPU in-game. So it's definitely a case of some just not being in for a weird reason.

 

[Mamboo07]

Zelda's been in an odd spot Brawl.

Every character the franchise has had as of Melee is one of the main three players, a variation of them, or, in Sheik's case, an alter ego. It remained that way in Brawl, with the addition of Toon Link in favor of Young Link, didn't change at all in Wii U and 3DS, and the only real change in Ultimate was that it brought Young Link back without removing Toon Link. Other than that, all we got was different versions of the "main" Triforce wielders.

Not taking any fan-rules into account, here, but with how that's remained consistent for three games straight, it's hard to gauge who, if anyone, could be Zelda's next newcomer, if anyone even has a say in the matter and a desire to make that happen in the first place. I'd want it to be Tetra, personally, but there are many characters you could look at who could just as easily happen instead.

Same with Kirby who can't even get Bandana Dee or more representation from the modern games.

 

[Droodle]

Honestly I think Zelda only has one problem.


There's no clear front runner.

There are lots of popular Zelda characters but there are so many choices that demand is fractured. Compare things to K. Rool and Ridley where they were far and away the fan favorite character to add next. Who do you add next? Skull Kid? Midna? Ghirahim? Impa? None of that is helped by those who believe Zelda shouldn't have anyone outside the main trio (which I think is lame).

I think if a Zelda newcomer is gonna see any success, the fandom's gonna have to rally behind one character and push them hardcore (while still supporting their favorites).

If I had to choose, I'd say Midna and Skull Kid would be our best bets for that, but who knows...

If I am to speak objectively, the front runner should be Tingle considering he had 2 spin-offs where he was the main character. But the thing with Tingle is that a lot of people in the West hate Tingle, while Japan loves him. IMO, Tingle is the character that best represents Zelda's bizarre and quirky atmosphere, but that's just me. Maybe he'll get in as the next WTF fighter kind of like G&W, ROB, Duck Hunt, and Pirahna Plant; but I can already imagine how people will act as if he "stole" a slot from Skull Kid, Tetra, Impa, Midna, etc.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

Same with Kirby who can't even get Bandana Dee or more representation from the modern games.

Maybe because people will think he's bias, especially knowing the Smash community.

 

[Goombaic]

Reminder that this is what was shown.

Spoiler

Not this

Spoiler

What I see

Nor this

Spoiler

Definitely not this

Spoiler

Honestly I think Zelda only has one problem.


There's no clear front runner.

There are lots of popular Zelda characters but there are so many choices that demand is fractured. Compare things to K. Rool and Ridley where they were far and away the fan favorite character to add next. Who do you add next? Skull Kid? Midna? Ghirahim? Impa? None of that is helped by those who believe Zelda shouldn't have anyone outside the main trio (which I think is lame).

I think if a Zelda newcomer is gonna see any success, the fandom's gonna have to rally behind one character and push them hardcore (while still supporting their favorites).

If I had to choose, I'd say Midna and Skull Kid would be our best bets for that, but who knows...

I doubt that the support each of those characters has isn't enough for Sakurai to consider adding them. If the demand is there and notable, he'll consider it and might add it. I think everyone can agree that Dark Samus' support was miniscule compared to Ridley, but apparently it was enough for her to be added.

The way I see it, it's not a fanbase divided on who to add, it's a variety of fanbases who want those characters with some overlap in-between. There doesn't have to be a frontrunner.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

Still betting Spring Man.

Protagonist/Mascot always has and will come first when it comes to Smash and an franchise first being represented into the roster.

 

[Droodle]

Regardless of who does get in, the ARMS character will be super unique and interesting to play as, their playstyle alone makes me more excited then who it could potentially end up being. I'm guessing they'll be more of a "distance demon" like Byleth, mixed in with some rush down aspects.

 

[Ramen Tengoku]

Regardless of who does get in, the ARMS character will be super unique and interesting to play as, their playstyle alone makes me more excited then who it could potentially end up being. I'm guessing they'll be more of a "distance demon" like Byleth, mixed in with some rush down aspects.

I still love that they promoted Byleth as a "distance demon" with the longest range in the game, only for the literal next character being pretty much guaranteed to outrange em in every way.

 

[Jomosensual]

I do think it's a little funny how our very first character for the second pass was a first-party from an already repped game. I remember a few people saying that Byleth and the missing 3H Spirits should taken as a sign to everyone that we wouldn't get many first-parties, and that the only games that had a chance were those coming out in the future — aka the ones that have no Spirits.

I wonder what Sakurai would say if we showed him a list of all these rules we've made over the past two years. Probably something close to, "Truthfully, most of these weren't intentional."

I think the only ones that might be intentional are no 4th parties(because duh) and no playable indies because they've made a good effort to include a ton of them without making any playable including a ton of very popular ones both in the smash and overall gaming fan base

 

[Garteam]

As an addendum to your argument, isn't this the reason why Pokemon plurals are so strange? I've always assumed the reason we call multiples of Rattata the same thing and not "Rattatas" is because the translations are based on how they handle multiple units in Japan.

So, I don't speak Japanese but I love reading Clyde Mandelin's blog, Legends of Localization. So, here's my understanding based on some of the things brought up on that blog.

Pokemon is an abbreviation of Pocket Monsters. Pocket Monsters is what's known as a wasei eigo (made-in-Japan English), phrases that consist entirely of English loanwords that are manufactured in Japan and (typically) used exclusively in Japanese. If you played either Smash 64 or the Japanese version of any other Smash game, "Game Set" is a wasei eigo that appears at the end of every match. It's technically english in the sense that it only contains english words, but it was made in Japan and only really holds meaning to someone who speaks Japanese, leading it to be thusly localized into the more conventional "Game!".

Now, whether or not wasei eigo count as loanwords is a legitimate debate among linguists who are much more intelligent than me, and I imagine questioning whether a wasei eigo adopted into standard English is a loanword for that language would likely cause even more infighting. However, I think Pokemon being an abbreviation of wasei eigo could be reasonably argued to be a loanword, despite it's roots being two common english words. If Pokemon is counted as a loanword, it makes sense that its plural form would follow the rules that Japanese has for plurals and remain unchanged from its singular form, similar to how the plural for sushi is still sushi.

For individual species of Pokemon, it's a little more confusing. For Pokemon who have the same name in both Japanese and English (ex. Pikachu) would follow the rule of Japanese plurals remaining unchanged. However, most Pokemon don't use their Japanese names in the English localization, they use a new name made for them by Nintendo of America/the Pokemon Company. Perhaps they like having each individual species of Pokemon follow the same system of plurals as the umbrella term for Pokemon, which is rooted in Japanese grammar?

 

[Droodle]

I still love that they promoted Byleth as a "distance demon" with the longest range in the game, only for the literal next character being pretty much guaranteed to outrange em in every way.

Sakurai: "Since we used the term distance-demon for Byleth, we can't use that exact same term here. I guess the correct term in this case would be distance-god? Have a look."

Shows a video of the characters forward Smash covering half of FD.

Sakurai:

 

[Arcanir]

I doubt that the support each of those characters has isn't enough for Sakurai to consider adding them. If the demand is there and notable, he'll consider it and might add it. I think everyone can agree that Dark Samus' support was miniscule compared to Ridley, but apparently it was enough for her to be added.

The way I see it, it's not a fanbase divided on who to add, it's a variety of fanbases who want those characters with some overlap in-between. There doesn't have to be a frontrunner.

The thing to remember with Dark Samus is that while popularity helped her case, it was her being a potential Echo Fighter that ultimately got her foot in the door. If it wasn't for that she probably would've been outprioritized by Ridley and likely not have been a playable character in Ultimate. Characters like Midna or Skull Kid don't have that option, they can't copy someone like Zelda or Young Link because their body types and/or abilities are very different from those base characters.

 

[Digital Hazard]

The only annoying thing I can see is gonna happen if it's not Springman will be supporters of 'x secondary character' making as if they will get in before the protagonist/mascot.

There's already a few of them who use Robin, of all people, as an example.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

The only annoying thing I can see is gonna happen if it's not Springman will be supporters of 'x secondary character' making as if they will get in before the protagonist/mascot.

There's already a few of them who use Robin, of all people, as an example.

And those people never played past act 1.

 

[KingofPhantoms]

It's worth remembering that Toon Zelda was considered for Brawl and may have very likely made the cut were it not for time constraints.

Were there ever a good time for Sakurai to revisit the idea of adding any the characters who failed to make the cut in Brawl and beyond, I think it's just about right now.

 

[Digital Hazard]

And those people never played past act 1.

I even saw someone say that the whole deal with Grima lies more in Chrom challenging his fate to keep arguing that Robin is a secondary character.

 

[Cap'n Jack]

If I am to speak objectively, the front runner should be Tingle considering he had 2 spin-offs where he was the main character. But the thing with Tingle is that a lot of people in the West hate Tingle, while Japan loves him. IMO, Tingle is the character that best represents Zelda's bizarre and quirky atmosphere, but that's just me. Maybe he'll get in as the next WTF fighter kind of like G&W, ROB, Duck Hunt, and Pirahna Plant; but I can already imagine how people will act as if he "stole" a slot from Skull Kid, Tetra, Impa, Midna, etc.

This is actually a great point. Tingle does make the most sense as he is both a reoccurring character and popular where it matters: in the east.

 

[Kokiden]

Anything new or noteworthy since Arms character got announced?

It's been a few weeks since I last dropped by.

 

[Ace C.R.O.S.S.]

Anything new or noteworthy since Arms character got announced?

It's been a few weeks since I last dropped by.

Not at all, really. We're all at lose...

 

[Kokiden]

Not at all, really. We're all at lose...

Ah I see. Thanks.

I'm hoping there will be an announcement or hint dropped by the end of June at the latest, then. I feel like it has been a long time since we've gotten anything regarding the remaining DLC.

Completely random and probably not even possible, but FF7 Remake Tifa would cause a huge fuss (in a good way) and I'd be down with using her in Smash, after seeing how she plays in the Remake.

If only...

 

[SnowClaws]

Sakurai: "Since we used the term distance-demon for Byleth, we can't use that exact same term here. I guess the correct term in this case would be distance-god? Have a look."

Shows a video of the characters forward Smash covering half of FD.

Sakurai:

Knowing the most effective range of your favorite #ARMS is the first step to victory! pic.twitter.com/fJ35akjiTh

— Nintendo of America (@NintendoAmerica) June 30, 2017