Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[Cosmic77]

Everyone's talking about how Zelda is supposedly underrepresented in the character department, but can we get an a F in the chat for Yoshi and F-Zero?

They've been here since the very beginning, and they've each been stuck with their one single character for 20+ years now

I mean, even though I love both series, I can understand why.

One has a very limited, oddball cast, and none the characters have managed to get a significant amount of support. The other has stayed alive through Smash.

I'm pretty sure the man himself gave the number 30. It was probably a quick estimate, but people aren't making it up out of nowhere.

I don't buy that, especially when Smash 4 had almost 50 on the base roster and Sakurai was making not one but two games.

 

[Curious Villager]

So 4chan made a DLC newcomer moveset potential tier list.

Spoiler

And yeah, I gotta laugh at this.

Also, didn't a famitsu article state that Nintendo and Sakurai never rejected a character during the DLC period because of lack of moveset ideas?

>Every rare occasion Layton gets acknowledged by the Smash community.
>It's always in these meme posts that tend to make him look like a joke and unappealing.
>Supporting Layton is an uphill battle filled with pain and suffering.

What did we do to deserve this Laytonbros...? OTL

 

[Opossum]

Everyone's talking about how Zelda is supposedly underrepresented in the character department, but can we get an a F in the chat for Yoshi and F-Zero?

They've been here since the very beginning, and they've both been stuck with their one single character for 20+ years now.

I mean in fairness Yoshi is a Mario character in all but name and F-Zero is extinct despite not being the literal dinosaur among these two.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

I'm pretty sure the man himself gave the number 30. It was probably a quick estimate, but people aren't making it up out of nowhere.

I'm gonna need a source for two reasons:

1. Sakurai has stated he doesn't like cutting or drastically altering characters due to their fans.
2. As far as I know, Super Smash Bros. Ultimate was the first game where he said the roster was getting unmanageable. If "Everyone is Here!" is wasn't the goal, I'd imagine the roster would still be comparable to Super Smash Bros. for Nintendo 3Ds/Wii U's roster (about 51 in the base game). Likely a little larger, as they wouldn't be working on two versions of the game.

 

[Mushroomguy12]

I think I got a decent game. I hope it's good.

Make a fighters pass using the top six "gun wielding" characters you'd like to see in Super Smash Bros Ultimate so anyone who fights using guns or any kind of weapon that shoots bullets or lasers beams (Like Samus, Joker, Bayonetta or Inklings) is fair game. I'll give you all an example.

1. Cormano (Sunset Riders)
2. John Raimi (Geist)
3. Doom Guy (DOOM)
4. Gunstar Red/Blue (Gunstar Heroes)
5. The Dude (Postal 2)
6. SGT. CORTEZ! (TimeSplitters)

YEAH! IT'S TIME TO SPLIT!
View attachment 273039

Couldn't choose between my top choices so I did 7 instead of 6 to go one step beyond.

1. Octoling
2. Jill Valentine / Leon Kennedy
3. Lara Croft
4. Elma
5. Sora (can fire shots with certain keyblade configurations)
6. Akira Howard
7. Dixie Kong (uses bubblegum popgun)

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

Disregard this

I shall only stare at this with greater attention

 

[ALongWistfulSquiggle]

I'm gonna need a source for two reasons:

1. Sakurai has stated he doesn't like cutting or drastically altering characters due to their fans.
2. As far as I know, Super Smash Bros. Ultimate was the first game where he said the roster was getting unmanageable. If "Everyone is Here!" is wasn't the goal, I'd imagine the roster would still be comparable to Super Smash Bros. for Nintendo 3Ds/Wii U's roster (about 51 in the base game). Likely a little larger, as they wouldn't be working on two versions of the game.

Hopefully linking this isn't problematic. If it is, let me know and I'll delete it.

https://sourcegaming.info/2018/06/20/smash-is-special-part-1-sakurais-famitsu-column-vol-557/
This is from a famitsu column around when Ultimate came out.

"We had a choice between completely overhauling the game systems and feel, or working off of what we had established in the last game. We ended up going with the latter. If we went with the former, we might have ended up with only a third of the fighters we have now. Had we gone down that route, surely some fans would have complained and said, “I preferred the way it was last time.” We’ll have to face that decision again someday, but I decided that now was not that time."

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Hopefully linking this isn't problematic. If it is, let me know and I'll delete it.

https://sourcegaming.info/2018/06/20/smash-is-special-part-1-sakurais-famitsu-column-vol-557/
This is from a famitsu column around when Ultimate came out.

"We had a choice between completely overhauling the game systems and feel, or working off of what we had established in the last game. We ended up going with the latter. If we went with the former, we might have ended up with only a third of the fighters we have now. Had we gone down that route, surely some fans would have complained and said, “I preferred the way it was last time.” We’ll have to face that decision again someday, but I decided that now was not that time."

Whelp...Next game having 30 or probably fewer (28 is a third of Ultimate's base roster) characters confirmed then. That sucks.

EDIT: Actually, if Brawl's any indication it'll likely be closer to 40.

 

[DarthEnderX]

Them's fighting words.
8D is the best Mario Kart, and I've been playing since '96.

Oh, no, it's a GREAT Mario Kart game. I'm just saying that it's not a very good Zelda Kart game. On account of only having 1 character. Roster lacking.

This again? Do you people actually play Zelda or did I play different games?

You musta played different games. Because the biggest dopamine hits for me in Zelda is opening up that big chest and getting a new item.

trading Zelda's content for FE's just makes Zelda's representation even worse

I mean, when you don't include the CHARACTERS, i.e. the only thing most people care about, then yeah. The point was that he'd give up all that other junk for two more characters. And while I don't agree, I can certainly understand taking that position.

It's underrepresented in the way most people care about.

I mean, it's NOT. It's got 6 characters. That's plenty for any franchise that's not Mario or Pokemon.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Oh, no, it's a GREAT Mario Kart game. I'm just saying that it's not a very good Zelda Kart game. On account of only having 1 character. Roster lacking.

Only one track too. It's pretty much a demo to be honest.

 

[Cosmic77]

Hopefully linking this isn't problematic. If it is, let me know and I'll delete it.

https://sourcegaming.info/2018/06/20/smash-is-special-part-1-sakurais-famitsu-column-vol-557/
This is from a famitsu column around when Ultimate came out.

"We had a choice between completely overhauling the game systems and feel, or working off of what we had established in the last game. We ended up going with the latter. If we went with the former, we might have ended up with only a third of the fighters we have now. Had we gone down that route, surely some fans would have complained and said, “I preferred the way it was last time.” We’ll have to face that decision again someday, but I decided that now was not that time."

Whelp...Next game having 30 or probably fewer (28 is a third of Ultimate's base roster) characters confirmed then. That sucks.

EDIT: Actually, If Brawl's any indication it'll likely be closer to 40.

Sakurai basically started from scratch when making Smash 4, and we still had about 50 characters. That was when he developing two games at once.

I think Sakurai was just trying to emphasize that a lot of characters would've been cut. I don't think he really put that much thought into a number.

 

[DarthEnderX]

Make a fighters pass using the top six "gun wielding" characters you'd like to see in Super Smash Bros Ultimate so anyone who fights using guns or any kind of weapon that shoots bullets or lasers beams (Like Samus, Joker, Bayonetta or Inklings) is fair game.

1. Bill Rizer/Lance Bean [Contra]
2. SV-001 Metal Slug [Metal Slug]
3. Jill Valentine [Resident Evil]
4. Nathan Spencer [Bionic Commando]
5. Dante [Devil May Cry]
6. Zero [Mega Man X]

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

4. Nathan Spencer [Bionic Commando]

He has guns? I thought he just beat you with his wife.

 

[ALongWistfulSquiggle]

Sakurai basically started from scratch when making Smash 4, and we still had about 50 characters. That was when he developing two games at once.

I think Sakurai was just trying to emphasize that a lot of characters would've been cut. I don't think he really put that much thought into a number.

Same, actually. The more important part is that everything down to design would be done from scratch and that it would feel very different. Characters who haven't been touched much (like Ganondorf) are likely to have redesigns in that situation, since everything is being rethought. Plus, the situation could change in the 4+ years before we get a new game.

 

[Glaciacott]

I think I got a decent game. I hope it's good.

Make a fighters pass using the top six "gun wielding" characters you'd like to see in Super Smash Bros Ultimate so anyone who fights using guns or any kind of weapon that shoots bullets or lasers beams (Like Samus, Joker, Bayonetta or Inklings) is fair game. I'll give you all an example.

1. Cormano (Sunset Riders)

Everyone is having some random discussion or playing this game, but I just want to step in an shout-out this genius mention of Cormano.

In all my time here I've never seen mention of Sunset Riders and Cormano is such a genius pick. Bravo, friend, this is impeccable taste.

 

[Sc_Ev0lution]

Reiji & Xiamou (Project X Zone)

You. I like you

 

[Digital Hazard]

I think I got a decent game. I hope it's good.

Make a fighters pass using the top six "gun wielding" characters you'd like to see in Super Smash Bros Ultimate so anyone who fights using guns or any kind of weapon that shoots bullets or lasers beams (Like Samus, Joker, Bayonetta or Inklings) is fair game. I'll give you all an example.

1. Cormano (Sunset Riders)
2. John Raimi (Geist)
3. Doom Guy (DOOM)
4. Gunstar Red/Blue (Gunstar Heroes)
5. The Dude (Postal 2)
6. SGT. CORTEZ! (TimeSplitters)

YEAH! IT'S TIME TO SPLIT!
View attachment 273039

1. Bill Rizer (Contra)
2. Ratchet & Clank (never played their games, but they look fun)
3. Marco (Metal Slug)
4. Heavy (Team Fortress 2)
5. Doomslayer (Doom)
6. Dante (Devil May Cry)

 

[Perkilator]

Everyone's talking about how Zelda is supposedly underrepresented in the character department, but can we get an a F in the chat for Yoshi and F-Zero?

They've been here since the very beginning, and they've both been stuck with their one single character for 20+ years now.

At least they get new music with each new game they're in.

Wish I could say the same for Mr. Game & Watch. The Game & Watch Gallery games are RIGHT THERE for material, but we've been stuck with Flat Zone 1 and 2 (both stage and music) for years. Not even a Manhole Assist Trophy.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Sure, but people also need to stop being dismissive toward those who want more Zelda characters just because they personally believe the stages and Spirits should be enough for fans. It's also unfair for people to automatically lump anyone who wants more Zelda characters with those who complain about the amount of FE content just for the sake of making an argument. Not everyone falls in both categories.

I'm grateful that Zelda has a lot of content outside the roster, but I believe we're long overdue for another character. We haven't gotten a truly unique character since Melee, and that feels odd for such a large and successful franchise with so many unique options. I don't consider that unappreciative or selfish, and I'm tired of people presenting it as such.

This is my thing.

Zelda's got 6 characters, sure. But of those, three are all nominally the same character and clones of each other (when they could easily be separated out more), two of the others are also nominally the same character (one of whom has a completely non-canon moveset and is really only in for legacy reasons), and the last one is also a clone who finally got something that looks a little more like himself than a racecar driver with another non-canon kit.

This is kinda on the level of Mario, Luigi as a Mario clone, Wario as a Mario clone, Peach, Peach-in-her-Mario-kart-jumpsuit-with-a-ZSS-moveset, and Bowser as a clone of DK who only just got a fire breath this game.

Are there a lot of characters? Yes. Are there a lot of missed opportunities? Yes.

Look even at the small things that could really have gone a long way: What if the Zelda cast got their costumes from different games, instead of just recolors? What if Ganondorf actually had a villain-y victory theme remix like pretty well every other villain? What if Young Link used the MM models for his sword/shield/hookshot and put on the FD mask before his Final Smash - same thing, he just becomes Oni Link first. What if Toon Link had specials that revolved around the Deku Leaf, Hammer, Grappling hook so it resembled more his games?

And remember: People do complain about all having the same basic kit. Same with . But Fire Emblem got at least one unique character every game since Melee. Zelda has not gotten any unique characters since then.

I'd gladly trade a few Zelda items, a stage or two, and a background in the not-exactly-replayable WoL to promote Midna or Skull Kid to playable. I'm even seriously of the opinion that Zelda doesn't need a new stage at all - Fire Emblem does. FE has so much music for only 3 or 4 stages (depending on if you get Byleth or not, and that also adds a lot more music).

So therefore, we should have Midna as a character, but then the stage should just be Fire Emblem instead. QED.

>Every rare occasion Layton gets acknowledged by the Smash community.
>It's always in these meme posts that tend to make him look like a joke and unappealing.
>Supporting Layton is an uphill battle filled with pain and suffering.

What did we do to deserve this Laytonbros...? OTL

...at least the character you support is being acknowledged? I'd love for something like this for mine, but as you can see - mine can't even be considered a joke since nobody even wants to consider it at all.

 

[epicmartin7]

Restocks don't necessarily work as a convincing marker on what will come newcomer wise specifically because they don't need to be related to any updates to the game. Amiibo "Theory" worked previously because the game had to be updated to support Amiibo functionality for brand new Amiibo, whereas these are entirely dependent on the production lines for the Amiibo themselves that have obviously been impacted by current events. The Amiibo restock was originally planned for much earlier, but got pushed back to June due to the production issues surrounding COVID-19. It's almost certainly a coincidence that the Amiibo restock fell on the same month as the ARMS character's release, and saying between June 5th and June 27th for the already announced ARMS character releasing in June doesn't really feel like it says much at all.

I mean, realistically, it is possible they are just restock dates of course. And because of that, the release date windows I posted are very much on shaky ground.

And yeah, there is certainly a possibility that COVID-19 might delay things even further. It certainly had impact on production and such, and I'm sure its effects will still be shown for a couple of months.

However, the data showing a correlation between post-Smash amiibo waves and character releases dates I would argue is irrefutable.

When you look at the difference in days between an amiibo wave and character launch, the gap is only a couple of weeks and some change away from each other at maximum, or a couple days at minimum. I think this shows that all waves at least launch near a DLC character's release in some form.

Not only that, but when you convert the values into a universal scale, and make an equation, those dates fit well as a linear equation.

Spoiler: Picture of Graph

The r^2 is also very close to 1! Which means that the line fits the data well.

So I think, by itself, the assumption that this requires game updates in order to work adds unnecessary complexity to the explanation, as I feel all amiibo waves stand on their own.

 

[Curious Villager]

...at least the character you support is being acknowledged? I'd love for something like this for mine, but as you can see - mine can't even be considered a joke since nobody even wants to consider it at all.

I guess there is no such thing as bad publicity...

Eh, I've pretty much come to terms that my character is probably just going to be another Cloud/Joker/Terry type deal.
If he happens, he happens by Sakurai/Nintendo's own accord and will probably catch the fanbase by surprise as a result.

That's just the way the cookie crumbles I suppose..

 

[AntagonisticGalaxyCetacea]

So 4chan made a DLC newcomer moveset potential tier list.

Spoiler

And yeah, I gotta laugh at this.

Also, didn't a famitsu article state that Nintendo and Sakurai never rejected a character during the DLC period because of lack of moveset ideas?

The Travis Touchdown one is objectively wrong because there's so much they could put in the character:

Dark Side abilities from NMH1
Roulette mechanic from NMH1/NMH2
Different Beam Katanas from NMH2
Skill Chips with various different abilities from TSA

But i guess "he's got a sword!" so that means he's bad

 

[Digital Hazard]

The Travis Touchdown one is objectively wrong because there's so much they could put in the character:

Dark Side abilities from NMH1
Roulette mechanic from NMH1/NMH2
Different Beam Katanas from NMH2
Skill Chips with various different abilities from TSA

But i guess "he's got a sword!" so that means he's bad

I've seen people go around claiming Sora's Keyblade is not a sword but a blunt weapon just to not be attacked.

It always fails.

The mere fact they do that says a lot on the sword fearmongering.

 

[EricTheGamerman]

Here's what a lot of people don't understand about FEH.

Despite being the most profitable mobile game for Nintendo, only 4% of all of Nintendo's mobile game downloads are for FEH.

FEH has been successful because it has a small but loyal fanbase that's apparently willing to shell out hundreds of dollars each year for this game.

This doesn't matter nearly as much as you seem to think it does. Sure, Nintendo would like to reach more people with Fire Emblem Heroes, but as it stands right now, $600,000,000 is still $600,000,000 and if anything, the smaller player base is all the more reason for Nintendo to try and attract people via other avenues to Heroes if your average user is spending such a proportionately larger amount compared to any other title that Nintendo puts out there. The people who spend money on mobile apps speak volumes louder than those who don't. It doesn't matter if Mario Kart Tour gets a ton of downloads if the vast majority of those people aren't spending money and the people who are spending money aren't spending that much to begin with. It's capitalism, profit reigns supreme.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

I've seen people go around claiming Sora's Keyblade is not a sword but a blunt weapon just to not be attacked.

It always fails.

The mere fact they do that says a lot on the sword fearmongering.

*that feel when people use a common roast against the Keyblade in an attempt to make people hate the idea of Sora less*

 

[Cosmic77]

This doesn't matter nearly as much as you seem to think it does. Sure, Nintendo would like to reach more people with Fire Emblem Heroes, but as it stands right now, $600,000,000 is still $600,000,000 and if anything, the smaller player base is all the more reason for Nintendo to try and attract people via other avenues to Heroes if your average user is spending such a proportionately larger amount compared to any other title that Nintendo puts out there. The people who spend money on mobile apps speak volumes louder than those who don't. It doesn't matter if Mario Kart Tour gets a ton of downloads if the vast majority of those people aren't spending money and the people who are spending money aren't spending that much to begin with. It's capitalism, profit reigns supreme.

I'm not arguing about whether or not FEH was a success. I'm saying that the amount of money it makes shouldn't be used to gauge it's popularity.

The point is that profits =/= popularity.

If only 4% of downloads for Nintendo's mobile games account for FEH, then that means Nintendo is able to make a lot of money off of a small playerbase. That's why I don't agree with people who use FEH's profits as a gauge for how popular the franchise is. Console games are a better indicator of popularity. Excluding potential DLC or lootcrates, it's a one-time purchase. The amount of cash they take in is more dependent on the number of consumers than mobile games. There's usually a max limit on how much money you can spend on one of Nintendo's console games.

People can spend an infinite amount of cash on FEH, but 3H only has so much content you can purchase. That's why I believe the sales of console games are more important when judging the popularity of a franchise.

 

[SnowClaws]

I think I got a decent game. I hope it's good.

Make a fighters pass using the top six "gun wielding" characters you'd like to see in Super Smash Bros Ultimate so anyone who fights using guns or any kind of weapon that shoots bullets or lasers beams (Like Samus, Joker, Bayonetta or Inklings) is fair game. I'll give you all an example.

1. Cormano (Sunset Riders)
2. John Raimi (Geist)
3. Doom Guy (DOOM)
4. Gunstar Red/Blue (Gunstar Heroes)
5. The Dude (Postal 2)
6. SGT. CORTEZ! (TimeSplitters)

YEAH! IT'S TIME TO SPLIT!
View attachment 273039

1.) JC Denton (Deus Ex)
2.) Kazuma Kiryu (Yakuza: Dead Souls)
3.) Ulala (Space Channel 5)
4.) Frederia Irving (Etrian Odyssey)
5.) Erica Fontaine (Sakura Wars)
6.) Link (Link's Crossbow Training)

 

[Professor Pumpkaboo]

Did this random meme just confirm Dante for Smash?

https://www.facebook.com/408021329757150/posts/729584857600794

pff Oh god damn it, you almost made me drop my sloppy joe

 

[Swamp Sensei]

I just want a new Zelda character...

I don't want to get into any arguments about whats fair.

I just want one new Zelda boi or gurl.

 

[Digital Hazard]

I just want a new Zelda character...

I don't want to get into any arguments about whats fair.

I just want one new Zelda boi or gurl.

Request accepted.

Dark Link gets his own slot.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Request accepted.

Dark Link gets his own slot.

I was gonna say beggars can't be choosers...

But then I remembered my own standards.

 

[Evil Trapezium]

I just want a new Zelda character...

I don't want to get into any arguments about whats fair.

I just want one new Zelda boi or gurl.

Deku Link?

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Deku Link?

I mean, not ideal but the moveset would at least be unique.

 

[Speed Weed]

alright but y'all ain't ready for when sakurai says the next fighter is from zelda and the reveal trailer comes on and it's none other than THE CHAD RAVIO, BAYBEEEEEEEE

i'm only half-joking

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

I just want a new Zelda character...

I don't want to get into any arguments about whats fair.

I just want one new Zelda boi or gurl.

Sakurai: "I think I can do that."

Bokoblin joins the battle!

 

[Cosmic77]

I know it's not possible due to the huge differences in design, but it would be cool if BotW Zelda was added as a Zelda alt.

Really bummed she wasn't the version they went with. She was one of my favorite versions of the character.

 

[Professor Pumpkaboo]

>Every rare occasion Layton gets acknowledged by the Smash community.
>It's always in these meme posts that tend to make him look like a joke and unappealing.
>Supporting Layton is an uphill battle filled with pain and suffering.

What did we do to deserve this Laytonbros...? OTL

Being a Layton supporter is truly suffering

 

[Digital Hazard]

You know I was joking when saying Dark Link gets his own slot, but now I wonder how it'd have been had we preserved Smash 4 Link as that.

Oh welp, Young Link shall suffice.

I know it's not possible due to the huge differences in design, but it would be cool if BotW Zelda was added as a Zelda alt.

Really bummed she wasn't the version they went with. She was one of my favorite versions of the character.

As used as I am to the current Zelda we have in Smash, I can relate. She's the second best Zelda we've had in the series.

Best is Spirit Tracks Zelda. You can't change my mind.

 

[Guybrush20X6]

Here's what a lot of people don't understand about FEH.

Despite being the most profitable mobile game for Nintendo, only 4% of all of Nintendo's mobile game downloads are for FEH.

FEH has been successful because it has a small but loyal fanbase that's apparently willing to shell out hundreds of dollars each year for this game.

Gotta catch all 'em waifus and husbandos.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Best is Spirit Tracks Zelda. You can't change my mind.

I was going to pick a really random Zelda and say she's better, but I don't think I should even joke that she's better as a McGuffin.