Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[SMAASH! Puppy]

You may joke but


I'd unironically love either Ganoncorpse or Ganonswole.

Dead serious actually.

 

[NonSpecificGuy]

My main Zelda character I WANT is Skull Kid, it’s one of the main reasons I was so excited when he didn’t show up as an Assist and entered the speculation scene because Majora’s Mask and MGS4 are tied for my favorite game of all time.

But, because of her legacy, I would choose Impa. Or y’know Tingle but eh, not a fan.

 

[Shroob]

My main Zelda character I WANT is Skull Kid, it’s one of the main reasons I was so excited when he didn’t show up as an Assist and entered the speculation scene because Majora’s Mask and MGS4 are tied for my favorite game of all time.

But, because of her legacy, I would choose Impa. Or y’know Tingle but eh, not a fan.

Something tells me Tingle's chances aren't that great when Nintendo themselves knows just how much the west hates Tingle.


I like Tingle, but I'm well aware of the talk about Tingle, especially during Wind Waker times, and how most of that **** didn't fly back then and especially wouldn't fly nowadays.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Something tells me Tingle's chances aren't that great when Nintendo themselves knows just how much the west hates Tingle.


I like Tingle, but I'm well aware of the talk about Tingle, especially during Wind Waker times, and how most of that **** didn't fly back then and especially wouldn't fly nowadays.

He'd also likely be labeled as a Tingle's Rosy Rupeeland character, which means he technically wouldn't be a The Legend of Zelda character.

 

[Digital Hazard]

He'd also likely be labeled as a Tingle's Rosy Rupeeland character, which means he technically wouldn't be a The Legend of Zelda character.

The Tingle spirit is labeled under Zelda though.

...Then again we have Mario spin off spirits that are all over the place.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

The Tingle spirit is labeled under Zelda though.

...Then again we have Mario spin off spirits that are all over the place.

Yeah. I'm thinking that as a full character, he'd take inspiration from his own series just like what was done with Yoshi and Wario.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

So, I've been doing some thinking, never a good idea, I know, but an argument often made against Western characters is lack of popularity, and I'm not quite sure if that's fair to dismiss them for, let's take Crash, we know for a fact he's popular there, but how about another Western Sony property? Nobody would dare say God of War is popular in Japan, at most, people here would be able to say that the games got censored when brought over to Japan. What I recently found out however, is that the newest installment sold 75,608 copies in a couple of weeks there and that the franchise had enough popularity to get referenced in Danganronpa. The reference is left out in the localization but the character clearly says "God of War!" if you set the language to Japanese instead of the Bayonetta reference we got. One thing we often fail to consider is that Japan's gaming community is also smaller than America's gaming community alone, so a Western franchise being able to sell pretty decently despite supposed lack of interest is pretty interesting to me.


TLDR: Japan likes Western **** too including God of War, we're playing their supposed distaste up and should sit in the corner and think about what we did

 

[NonSpecificGuy]

So, I've been doing some thinking, never a good idea, I know, but an argument often made against Western characters is lack of popularity, and I'm not quite sure if that's fair to dismiss them for, let's take Crash, we know for a fact he's popular there, but how about another Western Sony property? Nobody would dare say God of War is popular in Japan, at most, people here would be able to say that the games got censored when brought over to Japan. What I recently found out however, is that the newest installment sold 75,608 copies in a couple of weeks there and that the franchise had enough popularity to get referenced in Danganronpa. The reference is left out in the localization but the character clearly says "God of War!" if you set the language to Japanese instead of the Bayonetta reference we got. One thing we often fail to consider is that Japan's gaming community is also smaller than America's gaming community alone, so a Western franchise being able to sell pretty decently despite supposed lack of interest is pretty interesting to me.


TLDR: Japan likes Western **** too including God of War, we're playing their supposed distaste up and should sit in the corner and think about what we did

But you don’t understand Gwen. People on this forum didn’t understand who Joker, Hero, and Terry were so that’s the fault of Sakurai appealing to only Japan. C’mon. Don’t be so dense.

In all seriousness I do think we’ve reached the point that most popular Japanese 3rd parties are well represented with a few exceptions and that it would be in Nintendo’s best interest to start looking into Western appeal. Whether they will or not is a different story but mass appeal games in America and Europe like Halo, Tomb Raider, Crash, and Doom would be an easy way to draw interest back to Smash Bros. Even after the game has been out for 2 years. Especially when it comes to Chief or Slayer considering how impossible both of those seem.

Also, also, all things considered there really aren’t that many Western 3rd parties often brought up in Speculation. Those I mentioned and Rayman are really it.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

But you don’t understand Gwen. People on this forum didn’t understand who Joker, Hero, and Terry were so that’s the fault of Sakurai appealing to only Japan. C’mon. Don’t be so dense.

In all seriousness I do think we’ve reached the point that most popular Japanese 3rd parties are well represented with a few exceptions and that it would be in Nintendo’s best interest to start looking into Western appeal. Whether they will or not is a different story but mass appeal games in America and Europe like Halo, Tomb Raider, Crash, and Doom would be an easy way to draw interest back to Smash Bros. Even after the game has been out for 2 years. Especially when it comes to Chief or Slayer considering how impossible both of those seem.

Also, also, all things considered there really aren’t that many Western 3rd parties often brought up in Speculation. Those I mentioned and Rayman are really it.

Usually because the response is "They're not popular in Japan so not happening. The current character's like this were only added because they're first party."


On another note: I heard Rayman is quite popular in Europe.

 

[Perkilator]

On another note: I heard Rayman is quite popular in Europe.

YouTuber Caddicarus has pretty fond memories of playing Rayman Revolution when he was younger.

 

[Shroob]

Usually because the response is "They're not popular in Japan so not happening. The current character's like this were only added because they're first party."


On another note: I heard Rayman is quite popular in Europe.

Well, he was made by a French development team, so that kinda makes sense.

 

[Will]

smash fans go "They would never get in, Japan don't know 'em!" one second and go "Whadda **** is a toe hoe?" the next

 

[Shroob]

smash fans go "They would never get in, Japan don't know 'em!" one second and go "Whadda **** is a toe hoe?" the next

Schrodinger's character

If the west doesn't know them
And the east doesn't know them
Do they exist or not?

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Well, he was made by a French development team, so that kinda makes sense.

I mention this because people seemed to write him off due to being incredibly niche. But if this isn't quite the case, I'd say he's actually a pretty strong contender even with Ezio still on the table.

smash fans go "They would never get in, Japan don't know 'em!" one second and go "Whadda **** is a toe hoe?" the next

It's ok because popularity in Japan >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> popularity everywhere else.

That and the counterargument seemed to be that she's not actually all that popular in Japan either...

 

[Droodle]

But you don’t understand Gwen. People on this forum didn’t understand who Joker, Hero, and Terry were so that’s the fault of Sakurai appealing to only Japan. C’mon. Don’t be so dense.

In all seriousness I do think we’ve reached the point that most popular Japanese 3rd parties are well represented with a few exceptions and that it would be in Nintendo’s best interest to start looking into Western appeal. Whether they will or not is a different story but mass appeal games in America and Europe like Halo, Tomb Raider, Crash, and Doom would be an easy way to draw interest back to Smash Bros. Even after the game has been out for 2 years. Especially when it comes to Chief or Slayer considering how impossible both of those seem.

Also, also, all things considered there really aren’t that many Western 3rd parties often brought up in Speculation. Those I mentioned and Rayman are really it.

It's his time to shine.

Smugness intensifies.

 

[Will]

That and the counterargument seemed to be that she's not actually all that popular in Japan either...

Well, how did they prove that? Because I both never saw and literally cannot find the source of whatever argument is going on.

 

[Shroob]

Well, how did they prove that? Because I both never saw and literally cannot find the source of whatever argument is going on.

Wait.... TOUHOU of all **** not popular in JAPAN?


What the **** have I walked into.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Well, how did they prove that? Because I both never saw and literally cannot find the source of whatever argument is going on.

It was the one from last night. Some people told them it was as popular as Dragon Quest (which is obviously a dumb claim) and I feel like they got stuck on that. I remember them being like "there aren't any Tohou concerts or cafés so it's clearly not that popular" which I didn't get at all as an argument.

EDIT: From what I gather the series is pretty low key, but present in more places than you'd expect.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

It was the one from last night. Some people told them it was as popular as Dragon Quest (which is obviously a dumb claim) and I feel like they got stuck on that. I remember them being like "there aren't any Tohou concerts or cafés so it's clearly not that popular" which I didn't get at all as an argument.

EDIT: From what I gather the series is pretty low key, but present in more places than you'd expect.

I thought the comparison was Sakura Wars for that despite Sakura Wars being dormant for a long ass time but Touhou has internet memes

 

[Sc_Ev0lution]

there aren't any Tohou concerts

uhhh...

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

I thought the comparison was Sakura Wars for that despite Sakura Wars being dormant for a long ass time but Touhou has internet memes

Ah! That was it. I guess I didn't have the full context. My previous statements should be disregarded if that was the case.

EDIT: That, and Sakura Wars is so off my radar that I forgot about it.
EDIT EDIT: I know that's not what it is, but I just imagined that Sakura Wars is a game where all the Sakuras of gaming and anime duke it out.

 

[Schnee117]

It's his time to shine.

Smugness intensifies.

Imagine not going for our first YouTube rep, Rabbid Luigi

 

[ShrimpScampi]

Imagine not going for our first YouTube rep, Rabbid Luigi

His taunts would be reminding viewers to subscribe and hit the bell for notifications, and his victory screen dialogue would have to start with “Thishasbeenrabbidluigi”

 

[MrMcNuts]

Usually because the response is "They're not popular in Japan so not happening. The current character's like this were only added because they're first party."


On another note: I heard Rayman is quite popular in Europe.

Yeah Rayman is pretty big in Europe, and decently known in America, it's mainly Japan and that's he's not too known. Still a gaming icon, just not one of the huge ones.

 

[Shroob]

Imagine not going for our first YouTube rep, Rabbid Luigi

That will never not be funny.

*Randomly points over shoulder*

 

[Koopaul]

Being a Western character is not going to stop them from being in Smash... But it does lower their chances. I do think Japanese characters are more likely simply because it's easier to work with people who speak the same language. Sakurai and his team are not opposed to adding Western 3rd parties, but it is something he vocally expressed concern over.

 

[epicmartin7]

So, an amiibo restock is listed for June 12th on Best Buy's website for a bunch of Smash amiibo.

Not only that, but a polish retailer has listed another amiibo restock date of September 18th.

Provided these are new amiibo waves, these could provide release windows for the release of Fighter 6 and Fighter 7 due to Amiibo Theory.

I actually threw these dates into mathematical models I've created (based on Amiibo Theory!) to output Smash release dates before and after an amiibo wave, and here's what I got for both.

DLC6:

• Before Amiibo Wave: June 5th
• After Amiibo Wave: June 27th

DLC7:

• Before Amiibo Wave: September 12th
• After Amiibo Wave: October 5th

These release date estimates are not meant to be taken seriously, and are only meant to aid predictions. Sometimes, it will output dates that don't make "conventional sense". However, they do at least provide a decent guidebook I think.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Why can Mario get side characters and one-offs but Zelda can't? I always see the argument that "you don't need a Twilight Princess rep because Link is the main character, he reps it just fine" but Mario Galaxy clearly gets a rep in Rosalina even though Mario's the main character and should also rep it just fine.

 

[Strider_Bond00J]

Been busy on Uni work yesterday, but I thought I'd toss my hat in from that game being played yesterday for most wanted third-parties from various companies. I thought I'd be happy to share my thoughts on that for a second, so why not?
Konami: Raiden
Sega: Kazuma Kiryu
Capcom: Phoenix Wright or Dante (I would love either of them but Phoenix is my preference)
Bandai-Namco: Chosen Undead
Square Enix: Lara Croft
Microsoft: Master Chief
SNK: Marco/Tarma/Eri/Fio
...and a tiny shout-out to Isaac for Nintendo

A few bonus companies to share:
Bethesda: Doomguy
Ubisoft: Rayman
Koei-Tecmo: Ryu Hayabusa
WayForward: Shantae
Last but not least, ZUN/Shanghai Alice: Reimu

 

[DarthEnderX]

Why can Mario get side characters and one-offs but Zelda can't? I always see the argument that "you don't need a Twilight Princess rep because Link is the main character, he reps it just fine" but Mario Galaxy clearly gets a rep in Rosalina even though Mario's the main character and should also rep it just fine.

I mean...short answer, Rosalina is not a one-off.

She's in at least 3 core Mario games, and PLAYABLE in one of those(3D World), and has become a regular in spinoff sports/party titles.

 

[GoodGrief741]

I mean...short answer, Rosalina is not a one-off.

She's in at least 3 core Mario games, and PLAYABLE in one of those(3D World), and has become a regular in spinoff sports/party titles.

With that criteria the only big difference is that Mario has a ton of spin-offs and Zelda doesn't. I think it's unfair that just because there's a Mario Kart and not a Zelda Kart, they get treated differently. Especially when Hyrule Warriors is a thing and most of the one-offs are in it.

Skull Kid is also in three core Zelda games, by the way, and he's as much representative of Majora's Mask as Rosalina is of Galaxy.

 

[Ben Holt]

I mean...short answer, Rosalina is not a one-off.

She's in at least 3 core Mario games, and PLAYABLE in one of those(3D World), and has become a regular in spinoff sports/party titles.

Agreed. Wart is also not a one-off character.
He appeared in five core Mario games: Super Mario Bros. 2, Super Mario All-Stars (SNES), Super Mario All-Stars + Super Mario World, Super Mario Advanced, and Super Mario All-Stars (Wii).

 

[DarthEnderX]

With that criteria the only big difference is that Mario has a ton of spin-offs and Zelda doesn't. I think it's unfair that just because there's a Mario Kart and not a Zelda Kart, they get treated differently.

You think it's unfair that the series that has way more games gets more characters?

Also, there IS a Zelda Kart. It's called Mario Kart 8 Deluxe. It's just not a very good Zelda Kart.

 

[Ben Holt]

You think it's unfair that the series that has way more games gets more characters?

Also, there IS a Zelda Kart. It's called Mario Kart 8 Deluxe. It's just not a very good Zelda Kart.

Them's fighting words.
8D is the best Mario Kart, and I've been playing since '96.

 

[Shroob]

So, an amiibo restock is listed for June 12th on Best Buy's website for a bunch of Smash amiibo.

View attachment 273010

Not only that, but a polish retailer has listed another amiibo restock date of September 18th.

View attachment 273011

Provided these are new amiibo waves, these could provide release windows for the release of Fighter 6 and Fighter 7 due to Amiibo Theory.

I actually threw these dates into mathematical models I've created (based on Amiibo Theory!) to output Smash release dates before and after an amiibo wave, and here's what I got for both.

DLC6:

• Before Amiibo Wave: June 5th
• After Amiibo Wave: June 27th

DLC7:

• Before Amiibo Wave: September 12th
• After Amiibo Wave: October 5th

These release date estimates are not meant to be taken seriously, and are only meant to aid predictions. Sometimes, it will output dates that don't make "conventional sense". However, they do at least provide a decent guidebook I think.

Makes sense to me. DLC releases have conveniently lined up with Amiibos in the past.


Though makes me wonder what took the ARMs rep soo long and then boom, 2 months later "Here's FP7".

 

[Strider_Bond00J]

Makes sense to me. DLC releases have conveniently lined up with Amiibos in the past.


Though makes me wonder what took the ARMs rep soo long and then boom, 2 months later "Here's FP7".

Perhaps they might also be considering the first wave of Ultimate DLC amiibo? Like Joker or Hero for example if they wanted to start somewhere. But yeah, early June seems to be a good estimate zone for timing the release of the ARMS fighter.

 

[XorahnGaia]

Makes sense to me. DLC releases have conveniently lined up with Amiibos in the past.


Though makes me wonder what took the ARMs rep soo long and then boom, 2 months later "Here's FP7".

Itìs not that difficult to believe honestly.
For once, the same thing happened for FP1 where we had to wait 5 months for Joker and then just 3 months later we got Hero, and after that DLC characters where released at a steady rhythm of one every 2 months. (I know Plant releasing between tha game's launch and Joker kinda throws doen the toilet this line of thinking, but it was detached from the Fighter pass and an good amount of work on it was already done before launch).

Also Sakurai himself stated that the Arms character would be quite difficult to balance, so there's that.

 

[zriL]

It was the one from last night. Some people told them it was as popular as Dragon Quest (which is obviously a dumb claim) and I feel like they got stuck on that. I remember them being like "there aren't any Tohou concerts or cafés so it's clearly not that popular" which I didn't get at all as an argument.

EDIT: From what I gather the series is pretty low key, but present in more places than you'd expect.

Touhou is lowkey because it hasn't got any marketing ever since it's started and the games were only released physically in limited number. That's why it's pointless to talk about sales with Touhou because the official games were all limited editions that all sold out.

Anyways, claiming Touhou is more popular than Dragon Quest is probably false but not really dumb. Dragon Quest popularity is often understated as well.

There are definitely Touhou concerts, I don't know about Touhou cafés but I wouldn't be surprised there were. After all, there is a Touhou convention that is held at the biggest site in Japan (same place as Comiket, which is the biggest convention in the world I think), and it's a pretty big convention. And I'm not even sure there is a Dragon Quest convention.

 

[Guybrush20X6]

The Tingle spirit is labeled under Zelda though.

...Then again we have Mario spin off spirits that are all over the place.

Yeah, apparently Wrecking Crew is distinct enough to get it's own symbol?

 

[Guynamednelson]

Yeah, apparently Wrecking Crew is distinct enough to get it's own symbol?

Series that have a stage but no fighter still get their own symbols. It's not unique to Wrecking Crew.