Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[Eldrake]

Because I had time to kill, I decided to a bit of research on which potential newcomers have the largest communities on Reddit.

I listed out the subscriber count of 40 series plus Waluigi since he apparently has his own subreddit dedicated to him. If there’s any that slipped my mind and you want added in, do tell me.

1. Minecraft- 2,579,541
2. Skyrim- 815,158
3. Halo- 410,513
4. Monster Hunter- 358,833
5. Tf2- 338,066
6. Dark Souls- 298,952
7. Kingdom Hearts- 187,834
8. Mortal Kombat- 172,336
9. Doom- 128,049
10. Hollow Knight- 124,372
11. Halflife- 104,122
12. Tekken- 89,705
13. Nier- 76,756
14. Devil May Cry- 67,523
15. Touhou- 51,442
16. Digimon- 51,128
17. Ace Attorney- 42,887
18. Crash Bandicoot- 42,315
19. Waluigi!- 39,713
20. Soul Calibur- 39,081
21. Yakuza- 38,128
22. Tales-31,722
23. Tomb Raider- 27,015
24. Guilty Gear- 25,916
25. Harvest Moon- 20,791
26. Blazblue-15,723
27. Dynasty Warriors-11,164
28. Yokai watch- 9,901
29. Bravely Default- 9,550
30. Professor Layton- 6,913
31. Okami-6,326
32. TWEWY- 5,320
33. Shantae- 5,055
34. Cave Story- 4,442
35. Taiko no Tatsuijin- 3,569
36. Rayman- 3,523
37. No more heroes- 1,817
38. Scribblenauts- 1,473
39. Ninja Gaiden- 1,259
40. Puyo pop- 1,009
41. Xenosaga- 601

So what does this tell us for Smash?

Absolutely nothing!

while it’s interesting trivia, don’t go around saying that Series A is more popular and likely to be in Smash than Series B just because the number of Reddit subscribers. Just take a look at fighter pass 1’s series subscribers.

Persona 5- 175,119
BanjoKazooie-9,187
King of Fighters- 9,011
Dragon Quest- 49,171
Fire Emblem- 226,680

It’s interesting to see which potential DLC series are popular within the scope of Reddit, even if it has little effect on anything.

This also don't take into account that subscriber counts can fluctuate hard. For example, the Half-Life subreddit subscriber count was roughly 40k for a very long time. Then Half-Life: Alyx was announced, which caused a massive subscriber boom (not even NMH3's announcement did that for the No More Heroes subreddit!). And then months later Valve announced that they'd host a HL:A AMA on the Half-Life subreddit, which caused yet another subscriber boom.

 

[Deleted member]

hero today

 

[RileyXY1]

I'm now even more convinced that there will not be any Gen 8 Pokemon added to Smash.

 

[TwiceEXE]

What are y’all going to do if and when a Gen 8 Pokémon is revealed as a fighter for Volume 2, and your fan theories are dashed upon the rocks?

Wake up and realize it was a dream.

 

[Garteam]

What are y’all going to do if and when a Gen 8 Pokémon is revealed as a fighter for Volume 2, and your fan theories are dashed upon the rocks?

Turn on Smash and play with Fighter #11: Baboom

 

[wynn728]

Oh man, if Nintendo thought that it would be a good idea to not reveal a single character for Vol 2 until E3 but still it be available for purchase since January after showing the crap show that was Byleth then they're extremely ballsy. Not even a teaser like they did with Joker. Their extreme confidence that Byleth was going to be a great way to end Vol 1 and not having the need to reveal anything for a while doesn't paint a good picture for Vol 2.

What are y’all going to do if and when a Gen 8 Pokémon is revealed as a fighter for Volume 2, and your fan theories are dashed upon the rocks?

Of course that extra slot in Vol 2 was for a Sword & Shield rep. That's the only reason why Vol 2 has six character, got to fill that obligation.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Oh man, if Nintendo thought that it would be a good idea to not reveal a single character for Vol 2 until E3 but still it be available for purchase since January after showing the crap show that was Byleth then they're extremely ballsy. Not even a teaser like they did with Joker. Their extreme confidence that Byleth was going to be a great way to end Vol 1 and not having the need to reveal anything for a while doesn't paint a good picture for Vol 2.

I'm pretty sure it's just because it's taking longer to develop characters due to a shortened staff, especially as we're like seeing 3 characters max this year

 

[CroonerMike]

Oh man, if Nintendo thought that it would be a good idea to not reveal a single character for Vol 2 until E3 but still it be available for purchase since January after showing the crap show that was Byleth then they're extremely ballsy. Not even a teaser like they did with Joker. Their extreme confidence that Byleth was going to be a great way to end Vol 1 and not having the need to reveal anything for a while doesn't paint a good picture for Vol 2.

The salt is real with this one.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

I thought it was believed December 31st, 2021 was an placeholder date?

 

[Flyboy]

Oh man, if Nintendo thought that it would be a good idea to not reveal a single character for Vol 2 until E3 but still it be available for purchase since January after showing the crap show that was Byleth then they're extremely ballsy. Not even a teaser like they did with Joker. Their extreme confidence that Byleth was going to be a great way to end Vol 1 and not having the need to reveal anything for a while doesn't paint a good picture for Vol 2.

I mean, luckily most people don't actually have the memory of a goldfish and can see Fighters Pass 1 as a whole rather than as a single character, and as a whole it's a great pass. When the next character gets announced, people will rush and get pass 2 on that merit alone, really.

 

[Goombaic]

What are y’all going to do if and when a Gen 8 Pokémon is revealed as a fighter for Volume 2, and your fan theories are dashed upon the rocks?

I have full faith that there's going to be a Pokemon in the new pass but you don't have to act so smug right now because people will make you eat those words.

 

[Ramen Tengoku]

I thought it was believed December 31st, 2021 was an placeholder date?

it is, but assuming fighter pass 1 ended pretty darn close to it's "February 2020" deadline I expect the same with fighter pass 2

the staff's likely extremely downsized by now, so it'll probably take a fair bit longer than pass 2

 

[wynn728]

I'm pretty sure it's just because it's taking longer to develop characters due to a shortened staff, especially as we're like seeing 3 characters max this year

You know what doesn't take that long to make? A tease trailer. Doesn't have to be at the length of Joker's but seeing how the characters were selected before November and Joker didn't release until five months after his initial reveal they totally could've give a short small trailer of who the sixth fighter to give more of a reason to buy the Fighters Pass Vol 2 instead having that stupid Mii Costume be the incentives to buy it early.

 

[TwiceEXE]

You know what doesn't take that long to make? A tease trailer. Doesn't have to be at the length of Joker's but seeing how the characters were selected before November and Joker didn't release until five months after his initial reveal they totally could've give a short small trailer of who the sixth fighter to give more of a reason to buy the Fighters Pass Vol 2 instead having that stupid Mii Costume be the incentives to buy it early.

That will just create a longer delta between FP6 and FP7.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

You know what doesn't take that long to make? A tease trailer. Doesn't have to be at the length of Joker's but seeing how the characters were selected before November and Joker didn't release until five months after his initial reveal they totally could've give a short small trailer of who the sixth fighter to give more of a reason to buy the Fighters Pass Vol 2 instead having that stupid Mii Costume be the incentives to buy it early.

I get that and I don't entirely disagree but Joker was an exception due to the game awards. That being said considering what they did with Terry they're willing to do it for no reason

 

[Dinoman96]

I could still see there being a teaster for the first FP1 character in the next direct, whenever that may be. It's been a goodwhile since Byleth.

Spring Direct - FP2 #1
E3 Direct - FP2 #2
September Direct - FP2 #3

Do the same thing in 2021

 

[Michael the Spikester]

Spring Direct - FP2 #1

Assuming we don't get an tease this week if there is an General Direct then I'm thinking April given the restock of Amiibos which should come with an new one since Amiibo Theory has always been spot-on.

 

[Deleted member]

Oh man, if Nintendo thought that it would be a good idea to not reveal a single character for Vol 2 until E3 but still it be available for purchase since January after showing the crap show that was Byleth then they're extremely ballsy. Not even a teaser like they did with Joker. Their extreme confidence that Byleth was going to be a great way to end Vol 1 and not having the need to reveal anything for a while doesn't paint a good picture for Vol 2.

You can just not buy Wave 2 yet if you're unsure about its quality. Most people don't dedicate their private lives to speculating Smash Bros characters so the wait isn't gonna kill anybody, especially you. Chill, mate.

 

[Garteam]

Here's my timeline prediction:
Fighter #1: Announced in the April 2020 direct, released June 2020
Fighter #2: Announced at E3 2020, released October 2020
Fighter #3: Announced at E3 2020, released January 2021
Fighter #4: Announced in the first Nintendo Direct of 2021, released April 2021
Fighter #5: Announced at E3 2021, released September 2021
Fighter #6: Announced in a Byleth-style presentation in November 2021, released later that month.

 

[Deleted member]

Uh, Question. Is there a source to the whole " the staff has downsized " thing?

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Uh, Question. Is there a source to the whole " the staff has downsized " thing?

No but based on how much longer V2 will take alongside common practises in the gaming industry it's incredibly likely

 

[Deleted member]

What are y’all going to do if and when a Gen 8 Pokémon is revealed as a fighter for Volume 2, and your fan theories are dashed upon the rocks?

Byleth already annihilated a bunch of Fan Theories like 3rd parties only, Three Houses being too recent, adding brand new series, etc. If anything, a Gen 8 rep would actually confirm fan theories in the form of Spirit Promotions and how Spirits no longer deconfirm.

 

[wynn728]

That will just create a longer delta between FP6 and FP7.

You mean just like the wait between Joker and Hero. The main thing is they really should've know that Byleth wasn't going to be received well at all, so much so that people aren't willing to buy the entire Fighters Pass Vol 2 right now, especially with a piss poor ending like that. Sakurai said he hate having a season pass be available for purchase without really having anything shown, why couldn't he and his team make a small tease of Fighter Six similar to Joker's and Terry's trailer to give a reason why people should buy the pass early. This confidence in having a character who's game wasn't even release by the time the DLC was decided as the final character gives me confidence that Vol 2 is going to have a couple of duds on the level similar to Byleth.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Tbh I’d sooner expect a base game spirit like Elma or Octoling Girl & Boy to break the Spirits Deconfirm rule as they were decided on before DLC. Most of the patched in Spirits were decided on after DLC, especially the RE ones which came after the More Fighters In Development announcement which to me implies they weren’t selected.

 

[Curious Villager]

Uh, Question. Is there a source to the whole " the staff has downsized " thing?

Its just speculation for the most part. Sakurai didn't comment anything about the staff downsizing, if anything, I think he stated recently that the second pass would take about over a year to complete, much like the first pass.

Which would probably imply that the December 2021 date is mostly a placeholder and that it would probably wrap up a bit sooner than that...

 

[Deleted member]

You mean just like the wait between Joker and Hero. The main thing is they really should've know that Byleth wasn't going to be received well at all, so much so that people aren't willing to buy the entire Fighters Pass Vol 2 right now, especially with a piss poor ending like that. Sakurai said he hate having a season pass be available for purchase without really having anything shown, why couldn't he and his team make a small tease of Fighter Six similar to Joker's and Terry's trailer to give a reason why people should buy the pass early. This confidence in having a character who's game wasn't even release by the time the DLC was decided as the final character gives me confidence that Vol 2 is going to have a couple of duds on the level similar to Byleth.

They're saving FP 6 for a direct. Use your memory for a second. When has a newcomer at any point in time not been revealed at a Nintendo Direct? The only one exception is Joker, and that was because advertising at the VGA is a ****ing gold mine.

 

[wynn728]

You can just not buy Wave 2 yet if you're unsure about its quality. Most people don't dedicate their private lives to speculating Smash Bros characters so the wait isn't gonna kill anybody, especially you. Chill, mate.

I'm not buying Vol 2, even after the first character gets revealed I'm not going to buy the entire pass. Saving $6 at the start is nothing when compare to buying each character individually throughout the course of two years. As of now Smash Reveals are the last thing I look forward, I'm just surprise on how they thought that Byleth as the last character with no other reveal was a good idea.

 

[Deleted member]

I'm not buying Vol 2, even after the first character gets revealed I'm not going to buy the entire pass.

So you're just whining. Glad to know this was productive.

 

[CroonerMike]

I'm not buying Vol 2, even after the first character gets revealed I'm not going to buy the entire pass. Saving $6 at the start is nothing when compare to buying each character individually throughout the course of two years. As of now Smash Reveals are the last thing I look forward, I'm just surprise on how they thought that Byleth as the last character with no other reveal was a good idea.

Oh I forgot, let’s get everything YOU want.

 

[Guynamednelson]

I'm not buying Vol 2, even after the first character gets revealed I'm not going to buy the entire pass.

I'll be sure that all 6 characters are promoted ATs then.

 

[Hadokeyblade]

Does anyone remember my stupid theory about the SW/SH spirits missing from the Spirit Board being a sign of a Gen 8 being one of the six character in Volume 2? No? Well it doesn't matter because they just decided to add the Pokèmon (and RE) spirits to the normal rotation without waiting for the next upodate

以前に開催したスピリッツイベントで限定出現していた『ポケットモンスター ソード・シールド』の4種と、『バイオハザード』シリーズの4種のスピリッツが、スピリッツボードやショップに出現するようになりました。まだ入手されていない方はぜひチェックしてみてください！#スマブラSP pic.twitter.com/ojp0qSUwVC

— 大乱闘スマッシュブラザーズ【スマブラ公式】 (@SmashBrosJP) February 25, 2020

So yeah, that meant nothing in the end.

On the flipside, the fact that they just added this spirits at random could mean that we aren't getting any major update soon.
Even without taking the Amiibo restock in consideration I doubt anyone expected the next character to release before April, but this could also be a point in favor for #TeamNoNewCharactersUntilE3.

I thought they were already in the normal rotation? I get them all the time.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

just ignore and report him, guys. Don’t want to derail the discussion

 

[Ramen Tengoku]

I'm just surprise on how they thought that Byleth as the last character with no other reveal was a good idea.

hey it could've been much worse

Imagine if they started with Byleth

 

[Flyboy]

Tbh I’d sooner expect a base game spirit like Elma or Octoling Girl & Boy to break the Spirits Deconfirm rule as they were decided on before DLC.

You really, really want them, huh.

I'm not buying Vol 2, even after the first character gets revealed I'm not going to buy the entire pass. Saving $6 at the start is nothing when compare to buying each character individually throughout the course of two years. As of now Smash Reveals are the last thing I look forward, I'm just surprise on how they thought that Byleth as the last character with no other reveal was a good idea.

Three Houses is a good game people liked. Byleth was picked to be a new Switch-era character. Plenty of people are happy with Byleth both as a character and being in the game. TH Twitter exploded with new art as a result, especially thanks to the alts. Just because a character doesn't specifically please you doesn't mean it displeased everyone.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

I thought they were already in the normal rotation? I get them all the time.

If you got one of them during the event they stay, otherwise you have to wait

 

[Koopaul]

Assuming we don't get an tease this week if there is an General Direct then I'm thinking April given the restock of Amiibos which should come with an new one since Amiibo Theory has always been spot-on.

It seems crazy to have a Direct in April when E3 would only be two months away. Unless it's just a Smash dedicated thing.

 

[osby]

So you're just whining. Glad to know this was productive.

wynn whining for the sake of creating drama and not making any attempts at a productive argument? Wow, didn't see that coming.

 

[Deleted member]

hey it could've been much worse

Imagine if they started with Byleth

It could be even worse:
Smash Ultimate ends on Byleth and you don't get 6 more characters **** y'all I'm going on vacation

 

[wynn728]

Three Houses is a good game people liked. Byleth was picked to be a new Switch-era character. Plenty of people are happy with Byleth both as a character and being in the game. TH Twitter exploded with new art as a result, especially thanks to the alts. Just because a character doesn't specifically please you doesn't mean it displeased everyone.

Wow it's as if people have different, so? That literally doesn't matter. Everyone is going to feel different about everything. Point out that there are people who liked Byleth doesn't matter at all. Doesn't mean that people need to change how they feel just because there are people out there who liked something.

 

[CroonerMike]

Wow it's as if people have different, so? That literally doesn't matter. Everyone is going to feel different about everything. Point out that there are people who liked Byleth doesn't matter at all. Doesn't mean that people need to change how they feel just because there are people out there who liked something.

The reason people get mad at you is because you come in every day, ***** and moan about things we as a group cannot change, nor will they change and you never let off it. You SAY, people are different yet, you knock on others for enjoying stuff. So either leave or go cry in your pillow. It’s simple.