Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Less for him since Incineroar stole all his moves. But still want him.

Not all of them...

 

[N3ON]

I still stand by Dante because of Itsuno's wink-wink nudge-nudge comments.

That kind of statement is rife for confirmation bias though. People who want Dante probably do see it as wink-wink nudge-nudge, but it seems just as possible that there was no ulterior implication and he was being candid.

I mean for a long time people thought Hines' statement, limited as it was, was hinting towards Bethesda's inclusion. And clearly that was not the case.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

I still stand by Dante because of Itsuno's wink-wink nudge-nudge comments.

Alright! Doom Slayer for Mortal Kombat 11 then!

https://twitter.com/noobde/status/1073415120276086785

 

[BZL8]

That kind of statement is rife for confirmation bias though. People who want Dante probably do see it as wink-wink nudge-nudge, but it seems just as possible that there was no ulterior implication and he was being candid.

I mean for a long time people thought Hines' statement, limited as it was, was hinting towards Bethesda's inclusion. And clearly that was not the case.

I am one of those people. Fair enough.

 

[epicmartin7]

Recently, it was noted on several websites that various amiibo such as Isabelle would be getting restocks on April 17th. Usually this coincides with new amiibo releases, so it's possible we might be getting a Joker amiibo or something on that day as well. But it's too hard to know at this point.

However, using Amiibo theory, I have created a linear regression model based on already existing release dates to help aid in the prediction of future Smash Bros. character releases.

First off, I know it sounds nuts, but it's actually a thing I've been working on for several months and refining (if you see some of my previous posts, you can see me experimenting with earlier less refined calculations with some mistakes.)
I would go into detail on how the process works, however, I will be releasing a thesis on this whole thing in the future. And no... I'm not joking either. The plan is to divide the thesis into four parts

• An abstract for those who just want a TL;DR.
• A full detailed description of the process.
• All the raw data and equations used.
• And my interpretations and (of course) predictions using the data.

So for this post specifically, I won't be diving into too much detail. However, since it's math, it's only an approximation. None of this is concrete, and is only to aid predictions. It is still a helpful tool though!

Also, I should mention this is only based on North American data. I have the European and Japanese data recorded, but for time sake, North America data is what I have on hand with me.

So what did the North American model have to say? Well, there's two possibilities. The release date could be before or after the Amiibo wave. So because of that, there's two possible release dates according to the model.

Before Amiibo Wave: April 7th, 2020

After Amiibo Wave: April 28th, 2020

Again, there may be some variation there. It's not recommended to take the final value at face value (no pun intended.) It's good to use that value as a basis for a prediction.

Anyways, that's just my two cents into this. Again, the information should be released when it's ready. I'm busy with schooling right now, but once that settles down, I should have more time to finish the project.

So, what do you guys think of these predictions? Would be interesting to hear your thoughts. If any of you have any questions about this data, I'll try to answer it to the best of my ability. However, it may be a tad difficult due to the thesis not being available yet.

 

[Mushroomguy12]

That kind of statement is rife for confirmation bias though. People who want Dante probably do see it as wink-wink nudge-nudge, but it seems just as possible that there was no ulterior implication and he was being candid.

I mean for a long time people thought Hines' statement, limited as it was, was hinting towards Bethesda's inclusion. And clearly that was not the case.

I love your signature. Is there a gallery with more of those pixel characters?

 

[Cosmic77]

Recently, it was noted on several websites that various amiibo such as Isabelle would be getting restocks on April 17th. Usually this coincides with new amiibo releases, so it's possible we might be getting a Joker amiibo or something on that day as well. But it's too hard to know at this point.

However, using Amiibo theory, I have created a linear regression model based on already existing release dates to help aid in the prediction of future Smash Bros. character releases.

First off, I know it sounds nuts, but it's actually a thing I've been working on for several months and refining (if you see some of my previous posts, you can see me experimenting with earlier less refined calculations with some mistakes.)
I would go into detail on how the process works, however, I will be releasing a thesis on this whole thing in the future. And no... I'm not joking either. The plan is to divide the thesis into four parts

• An abstract for those who just want a TL;DR.
• A full detailed description of the process.
• All the raw data and equations used.
• And my interpretations and (of course) predictions using the data.

So for this post specifically, I won't be diving into too much detail. However, since it's math, it's only an approximation. None of this is concrete, and is only to aid predictions. It is still a helpful tool though!

Also, I should mention this is only based on North American data. I have the European and Japanese data recorded, but for time sake, North America data is what I have on hand with me.

So what did the North American model have to say? Well, there's two possibilities. The release date could be before or after the Amiibo wave. So because of that, there's two possible release dates according to the model.

Before Amiibo Wave: April 7th, 2020

After Amiibo Wave: April 28th, 2020

Again, there may be some variation there. It's not recommended to take the final value at face value (no pun intended.) It's good to use that value as a basis for a prediction.

Anyways, that's just my two cents into this. Again, the information should be released when it's ready. I'm busy with schooling right now, but once that settles down, I should have more time to finish the project.

So, what do you guys think of these predictions? Would be interesting to hear your thoughts. If any of you have any questions about this data, I'll try to answer it to the best of my ability. However, it may be a tad difficult due to the thesis not being available yet.

I know you've probably spent a lot of time on this, and I don't mean to shoot this all down with something that could easily end up being wrong, but there's three things I want to point out.

(1) Amiibo Theory claims that new characters are revealed close to new amiibo release. This is because Sakurai typically talks about them in the character presentation. Because these are restocks, it's very unlikely Sakurai would bring them up at all. This suggests that we either aren't getting a presentation or we're getting a presentation that doesn't talk about amiibo.

(2) It's been a really long time since Nintendo revealed an amiibo that was released so soon afterwards. The closest they've ever revealed an amiibo to its release is with BotW Zelda and Bokoblin (roughly one month). The odds of Joker's amiibo being revealed in March a month before its release is pretty slim, and the date for Joker's amiibo is a strong indicator that a presentation is happening somewhere around that time.

(3) Sakurai could've done something similar with Banjo and Terry last year during Joker's presentation. He could've revealed Hero then, but he waited until E3 instead. Once we get to April, I don't see a point in revealing a character before E3. Unless the character is completed before then, they might as well wait for when they have a much larger audience.

 

[N3ON]

I love your signature. Is there a gallery with more of those pixel characters?

Unfortunately not, you'll have to hunt down the art of Ahruon & Orkimides as best you can. They don't have a centralized website anymore.

 

[Knight Dude]

I beat that new Strider game about a year ago. It's pretty great, so if we wanted someone else from Capcom that wasn't Dante/Phoenix/Ammy or more of MM/SF. He'd be my choice. Granted Capcom's got a ton of stuff to pull from, which is why it's so tough to just pick one character from there.

Strider, Hayabusa, Musashi, give us one cool ninja man and it'd be dope.

 

[epicmartin7]

I know you've probably spent a lot of time on this, and I don't mean to shoot this all down with something that could easily end up being wrong, but there's three things I want to point out.

(1) Amiibo Theory claims that new characters are revealed close to new amiibo release. This is because Sakurai typically talks about them in the character presentation. Because these are restocks, it's very unlikely Sakurai would bring them up at all. This suggests that we either aren't getting a presentation or we're getting a presentation that doesn't talk about amiibo.

(2) It's been a really long time since Nintendo revealed an amiibo that was released so soon afterwards. The closest they've ever revealed an amiibo to its release is with BotW Zelda and Bokoblin (roughly one month). The odds of Joker's amiibo being revealed in March a month before its release is pretty slim, and the date for Joker's amiibo is a strong indicator that a presentation is happening somewhere around that time.

(3) Sakurai could've done something similar with Banjo and Terry last year during Joker's presentation. He could've revealed Hero then, but he waited until E3 instead. Once we get to April, I don't see a point in revealing a character before E3. Unless the character is completed before then, they might as well wait for when they have a much larger audience.

The equations I've made aren't meant to be pinpoint accurate. In fact, they're meant to be a tool to aid in predictions, not make them. So I fully expect it to be wrong. But for fun, I just wanted to throw my hat into the ring.

Next, the basis of Amiibo theory is a relationship between amiibo dates and character releases, not amiibo dates and character reveals, as one of the earliest posts about it shows.

And finally, we actually know one crucial piece of info about amiibo development. It takes a year from a fighter's release to finalize the design which fits in line within Joker's timeframe. Which adds some more fuel to the fire.

To basically put it, it is definitely possible this trend might break and throw my research into whack. However, until then, the prediction is still from the perspective that it doesn't. So it's definitely not future proof, but it at least helps with guess work for the fun of it.

 

[Llort A. Ton]

Wasnt really big on Final Fight, so I wouldnt get much of a kick out of Haggar Mike. If we get a beat em up character, I'd prefer someone from Streets of Rage. Or better yet, the Castle Crashers. Everyone's talkin "Microsoft Rep" this and "SNK Rep" that and "Indie Rep" whatever but we dont have ANY Newgrounds reps. Flash games are (technically) the biggest set of games with no content in Smash after all

 

[Guynamednelson]

"Indie Rep" whatever but we dont have ANY Newgrounds reps. Flash games are (technically) the biggest set of games with no content in Smash after all

Technically a Flash game rep would be an indie rep.

 

[King Sonnn DeDeDoo]

Found Kiryu's stage intro

The ragdolling guy in front of the door is absolutely necessary.

 

[RoboFist]

Aight

Which Capcom rep would you guys pick specifically to represent the VS. series (Marvel vs. Capcom in particular) in terms of references and mechanics?

My vote would probably be Zero.

In a perfect world? Easy:

 

[Flyboy]

In a perfect world? Easy:

View attachment 263737

This is it chief, this is it.

 

[Mushroomguy12]

In a perfect world? Easy:

View attachment 263737

Oh it's beautiful.

 

[Deleted member]

In a perfect world? Easy:

View attachment 263737

*sheds tears*

Beautiful...

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

In a perfect world? Easy:

Spoiler: Image

View attachment 263737

Highly regarded female characters?
I sleep.

Some dumb cactus guy?
Real stuff!!!


Jokes aside, all of these characters would be amazing.

 

[Mushroomguy12]

Highly regarded female characters?
I sleep.

Some dumb cactus guy?
Real stuff!!!


Jokes aside, all of these characters would be amazing.

Well speaking of original characters to MVC, I got a great one.

Spoiler

And another!

Spoiler

And both happen to be female as well.

 

[Geno Boost]

It’s year 2020 yet no sign of porky so far strange how he is still absent from smash knowing his importance rules

 

[Cutie Gwen]

It’s year 2020 yet no sign of porky so far strange how he is still absent from smash knowing his importance rules

Here he is

 

[Deleted member]

Highly regarded female characters?
I sleep.

Well...two of them are Spirits, one is probably in a difficult spot because of CERO...

 

[Geno Boost]

Here he is
View attachment 263748

The thing about this it’s not the one that has Porky included in it

 

[Cutie Gwen]

The thing about this it’s not the one that has Porky included in it

He's lying on the floor dead, he forgot to put oxygen in there

 

[Guynamednelson]

The thing about this it’s not the one that has Porky included in it

When they used a fan sprite for the Masked Man, I doubt they would ensure they used the right sprite for the ASC with Porky in it.

 

[King Sonnn DeDeDoo]

Because I had time to kill, I decided to a bit of research on which potential newcomers have the largest communities on Reddit.

I listed out the subscriber count of 40 series plus Waluigi since he apparently has his own subreddit dedicated to him. If there’s any that slipped my mind and you want added in, do tell me.

1. Minecraft- 2,579,541
2. Skyrim- 815,158
3. Halo- 410,513
4. Monster Hunter- 358,833
5. Tf2- 338,066
6. Dark Souls- 298,952
7. Kingdom Hearts- 187,834
8. Mortal Kombat- 172,336
9. Doom- 128,049
10. Hollow Knight- 124,372
11. Halflife- 104,122
12. Danganronpa- 91,283
13. Tekken- 89,705
14. Nier- 76,756
15. Devil May Cry- 67,523
16. Touhou- 51,442
17. Digimon- 51,128
18. Megaten - 44,465
19. Ace Attorney- 42,887
20. Crash Bandicoot- 42,315
21. Waluigi!- 39,713
22. Soul Calibur- 39,081
23. Yakuza- 38,128
24. Tales-31,722
25. Tomb Raider- 27,015
26. Guilty Gear- 25,916
27. Harvest Moon- 20,791
28. Blazblue-15,723
29. Dynasty Warriors-11,164
30. Yokai watch- 9,901
31. Bravely Default- 9,550
32. Professor Layton- 6,913
33. Okami-6,326
34. TWEWY- 5,320
35. Shantae- 5,055
36. Cave Story- 4,442
37. Taiko no Tatsuijin- 3,569
38. Rayman- 3,523
39. No more heroes- 1,817
40. Scribblenauts- 1,473
41. Ninja Gaiden- 1,259
42. Puyo pop- 1,009
43. Xenosaga- 601

So what does this tell us for Smash?

Absolutely nothing!

while it’s interesting trivia, don’t go around saying that Series A is more popular and likely to be in Smash than Series B just because the number of Reddit subscribers. Just take a look at fighter pass 1’s series subscribers.

Persona 5- 175,119
BanjoKazooie-9,187
King of Fighters- 9,011
Dragon Quest- 49,171
Fire Emblem- 226,680

It’s interesting to see which potential DLC series are popular within the scope of Reddit, even if it has little effect on anything.

 

[Idon]

Because I had time to kill, I decided to a bit of research on which potential newcomers have the largest communities on Reddit.

I listed out the subscriber count of 40 series plus Waluigi since he apparently has his own subreddit dedicated to him. If there’s any that slipped my mind and you want added in, do tell me.

1. Minecraft- 2,579,541
2. Skyrim- 815,158
3. Halo- 410,513
4. Monster Hunter- 358,833
5. Tf2- 338,066
6. Dark Souls- 298,952
7. Kingdom Hearts- 187,834
8. Mortal Kombat- 172,336
9. Doom- 128,049
10. Hollow Knight- 124,372
11. Halflife- 104,122
12. Tekken- 89,705
13. Nier- 76,756
14. Devil May Cry- 67,523
15. Touhou- 51,442
16. Digimon- 51,128
17. Ace Attorney- 42,887
18. Crash Bandicoot- 42,315
19. Waluigi!- 39,713
20. Soul Calibur- 39,081
21. Yakuza- 38,128
22. Tales-31,722
23. Tomb Raider- 27,015
24. Guilty Gear- 25,916
25. Harvest Moon- 20,791
26. Blazblue-15,723
27. Dynasty Warriors-11,164
28. Yokai watch- 9,901
29. Bravely Default- 9,550
30. Professor Layton- 6,913
31. Okami-6,326
32. TWEWY- 5,320
33. Shantae- 5,055
34. Cave Story- 4,442
35. Taiko no Tatsuijin- 3,569
36. Rayman- 3,523
37. No more heroes- 1,817
38. Scribblenauts- 1,473
39. Ninja Gaiden- 1,259
40. Puyo pop- 1,009
41. Xenosaga- 601

So what does this tell us for Smash?

Absolutely nothing!

while it’s interesting trivia, don’t go around saying that Series A is more popular and likely to be in Smash than Series B just because the number of Reddit subscribers. Just take a look at fighter pass 1’s series subscribers.

Persona 5- 175,119
BanjoKazooie-9,187
King of Fighters- 9,011
Dragon Quest- 49,171
Fire Emblem- 226,680

It’s interesting to see which potential DLC series are popular within the scope of Reddit, even if it has little effect on anything.

r/megaten with the 44,465 subscribers.



deconfirmations can't hurt me, these shades are gucci.

 

[Kokiden]

We really be flying in the dark here over who is going to get in huh?

 

[Deleted member]

We really be flying in the dark here over who is going to get in huh?

Pretty much.

Sakurai can change his tactics anytime...

 

[Kokiden]

Pretty much.

Sakurai can change his tactics anytime...

I think it's a good thing nobody knows.

There's a wide variety of speculation theories to entertain and discuss.

Would be nice if we can get a nice reaction for the opening of season 2 like how Joker was for season 1.

 

[Deleted member]

I think it's a good thing nobody knows.

There's a wide variety of speculation theories to entertain and discuss.

Would be nice if we can get a nice reaction for the opening of season 2 like how Joker was for season 1.

It also puts everyone on a more equal level, rather than having frontrunners and whatnot. Because trust me, having all of these frontrunners is not a good thing if you ask me. What a hell it must have been for the Hunger Games-esque level of debate and speculation only for everyone to be shocked with a Fire Emblem character.

 

[XorahnGaia]

Does anyone remember my stupid theory about the SW/SH spirits missing from the Spirit Board being a sign of a Gen 8 being one of the six character in Volume 2? No? Well it doesn't matter because they just decided to add the Pokèmon (and RE) spirits to the normal rotation without waiting for the next upodate

There was a problem fetching the tweet

So yeah, that meant nothing in the end.

On the flipside, the fact that they just added this spirits at random could mean that we aren't getting any major update soon.
Even without taking the Amiibo restock in consideration I doubt anyone expected the next character to release before April, but this could also be a point in favor for #TeamNoNewCharactersUntilE3.

 

[Deleted member]

On the flipside, the fact that they just added this spirits at random could mean that we aren't getting any major update soon.
Even without taking the Amiibo restock in consideration I doubt anyone expected the next character to release before April, but this could also be a point in favor for #TeamNoCharactersUntilE3.

Hmm...considering that it's still technically late Tuesday from where you guys are from, I do think that we aren't getting a major update. dman, the wait period is going to be a REALLY LONG ONE.

But seriously, if the wait period for the characters is THIS long, then they really have to reward us for our patience.

 

[Lionfranky]

Because I had time to kill, I decided to a bit of research on which potential newcomers have the largest communities on Reddit.

I listed out the subscriber count of 40 series plus Waluigi since he apparently has his own subreddit dedicated to him. If there’s any that slipped my mind and you want added in, do tell me.

1. Minecraft- 2,579,541
2. Skyrim- 815,158
3. Halo- 410,513
4. Monster Hunter- 358,833
5. Tf2- 338,066
6. Dark Souls- 298,952
7. Kingdom Hearts- 187,834
8. Mortal Kombat- 172,336
9. Doom- 128,049
10. Hollow Knight- 124,372
11. Halflife- 104,122
12. Tekken- 89,705
13. Nier- 76,756
14. Devil May Cry- 67,523
15. Touhou- 51,442
16. Digimon- 51,128
17. Ace Attorney- 42,887
18. Crash Bandicoot- 42,315
19. Waluigi!- 39,713
20. Soul Calibur- 39,081
21. Yakuza- 38,128
22. Tales-31,722
23. Tomb Raider- 27,015
24. Guilty Gear- 25,916
25. Harvest Moon- 20,791
26. Blazblue-15,723
27. Dynasty Warriors-11,164
28. Yokai watch- 9,901
29. Bravely Default- 9,550
30. Professor Layton- 6,913
31. Okami-6,326
32. TWEWY- 5,320
33. Shantae- 5,055
34. Cave Story- 4,442
35. Taiko no Tatsuijin- 3,569
36. Rayman- 3,523
37. No more heroes- 1,817
38. Scribblenauts- 1,473
39. Ninja Gaiden- 1,259
40. Puyo pop- 1,009
41. Xenosaga- 601

So what does this tell us for Smash?

Absolutely nothing!

while it’s interesting trivia, don’t go around saying that Series A is more popular and likely to be in Smash than Series B just because the number of Reddit subscribers. Just take a look at fighter pass 1’s series subscribers.

Persona 5- 175,119
BanjoKazooie-9,187
King of Fighters- 9,011
Dragon Quest- 49,171
Fire Emblem- 226,680

It’s interesting to see which potential DLC series are popular within the scope of Reddit, even if it has little effect on anything.

So what do you say about sales number in Japan? Is that really damning factor against characters like Master Chief?

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Because I had time to kill, I decided to a bit of research on which potential newcomers have the largest communities on Reddit.

I listed out the subscriber count of 40 series plus Waluigi since he apparently has his own subreddit dedicated to him. If there’s any that slipped my mind and you want added in, do tell me.

1. Minecraft- 2,579,541
2. Skyrim- 815,158
3. Halo- 410,513
4. Monster Hunter- 358,833
5. Tf2- 338,066
6. Dark Souls- 298,952
7. Kingdom Hearts- 187,834
8. Mortal Kombat- 172,336
9. Doom- 128,049
10. Hollow Knight- 124,372
11. Halflife- 104,122
12. Tekken- 89,705
13. Nier- 76,756
14. Devil May Cry- 67,523
15. Touhou- 51,442
16. Digimon- 51,128
17. Ace Attorney- 42,887
18. Crash Bandicoot- 42,315
19. Waluigi!- 39,713
20. Soul Calibur- 39,081
21. Yakuza- 38,128
22. Tales-31,722
23. Tomb Raider- 27,015
24. Guilty Gear- 25,916
25. Harvest Moon- 20,791
26. Blazblue-15,723
27. Dynasty Warriors-11,164
28. Yokai watch- 9,901
29. Bravely Default- 9,550
30. Professor Layton- 6,913
31. Okami-6,326
32. TWEWY- 5,320
33. Shantae- 5,055
34. Cave Story- 4,442
35. Taiko no Tatsuijin- 3,569
36. Rayman- 3,523
37. No more heroes- 1,817
38. Scribblenauts- 1,473
39. Ninja Gaiden- 1,259
40. Puyo pop- 1,009
41. Xenosaga- 601

So what does this tell us for Smash?

Absolutely nothing!

while it’s interesting trivia, don’t go around saying that Series A is more popular and likely to be in Smash than Series B just because the number of Reddit subscribers. Just take a look at fighter pass 1’s series subscribers.

Persona 5- 175,119
BanjoKazooie-9,187
King of Fighters- 9,011
Dragon Quest- 49,171
Fire Emblem- 226,680

It’s interesting to see which potential DLC series are popular within the scope of Reddit, even if it has little effect on anything.

Oh god considering how Reddit usually is I fear that all 1817 people on the NMH reddit don't get the point and think Travis is the coolest guy ever

 

[SuperSmashStephen]

What are y’all going to do if and when a Gen 8 Pokémon is revealed as a fighter for Volume 2, and your fan theories are dashed upon the rocks?

 

[Deleted member]

What are y’all going to do if and when a Gen 8 Pokémon is revealed as a fighter for Volume 2, and your fan theories are dashed upon the rocks?

I'm no fan of fan theories, but sometimes they gt stuff messed up or they manipulate stuff into their own favor

 

[Flyboy]

What are y’all going to do if and when a Gen 8 Pokémon is revealed as a fighter for Volume 2, and your fan theories are dashed upon the rocks?

Figure out new ones?

Same old song and dance. It's called Speculation because we craft theories and as new data comes out that challenges those theories we hypothesize and make new ones.

 

[Guynamednelson]

What are y’all going to do if and when a Gen 8 Pokémon is revealed as a fighter for Volume 2, and your fan theories are dashed upon the rocks?

Implying doing something else for the next Pokemon rep wouldn't be what dashes fan theories.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

What are y’all going to do if and when a Gen 8 Pokémon is revealed as a fighter for Volume 2, and your fan theories are dashed upon the rocks?

Go "oh **** I was wrong" and then proceed not to csre probably