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Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

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N3ON

N3ON

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BZL8 said:
I still stand by Dante because of Itsuno's wink-wink nudge-nudge comments.
Click to expand...
That kind of statement is rife for confirmation bias though. People who want Dante probably do see it as wink-wink nudge-nudge, but it seems just as possible that there was no ulterior implication and he was being candid.

I mean for a long time people thought Hines' statement, limited as it was, was hinting towards Bethesda's inclusion. And clearly that was not the case.
 
BZL8

BZL8

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N3ON said:
That kind of statement is rife for confirmation bias though. People who want Dante probably do see it as wink-wink nudge-nudge, but it seems just as possible that there was no ulterior implication and he was being candid.

I mean for a long time people thought Hines' statement, limited as it was, was hinting towards Bethesda's inclusion. And clearly that was not the case.
Click to expand...
I am one of those people. Fair enough.
 
epicmartin7

epicmartin7

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Recently, it was noted on several websites that various amiibo such as Isabelle would be getting restocks on April 17th. Usually this coincides with new amiibo releases, so it's possible we might be getting a Joker amiibo or something on that day as well. But it's too hard to know at this point.

However, using Amiibo theory, I have created a linear regression model based on already existing release dates to help aid in the prediction of future Smash Bros. character releases.

First off, I know it sounds nuts, but it's actually a thing I've been working on for several months and refining (if you see some of my previous posts, you can see me experimenting with earlier less refined calculations with some mistakes.)
I would go into detail on how the process works, however, I will be releasing a thesis on this whole thing in the future. And no... I'm not joking either. The plan is to divide the thesis into four parts
  • An abstract for those who just want a TL;DR.
  • A full detailed description of the process.
  • All the raw data and equations used.
  • And my interpretations and (of course) predictions using the data.
So for this post specifically, I won't be diving into too much detail. However, since it's math, it's only an approximation. None of this is concrete, and is only to aid predictions. It is still a helpful tool though!

Also, I should mention this is only based on North American data. I have the European and Japanese data recorded, but for time sake, North America data is what I have on hand with me.

So what did the North American model have to say? Well, there's two possibilities. The release date could be before or after the Amiibo wave. So because of that, there's two possible release dates according to the model.

Before Amiibo Wave: April 7th, 2020

After Amiibo Wave: April 28th, 2020

Again, there may be some variation there. It's not recommended to take the final value at face value (no pun intended.) It's good to use that value as a basis for a prediction.

Anyways, that's just my two cents into this. Again, the information should be released when it's ready. I'm busy with schooling right now, but once that settles down, I should have more time to finish the project.

So, what do you guys think of these predictions? Would be interesting to hear your thoughts. If any of you have any questions about this data, I'll try to answer it to the best of my ability. However, it may be a tad difficult due to the thesis not being available yet.
 
Mushroomguy12

Mushroomguy12

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Nov 23, 2018
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N3ON said:
That kind of statement is rife for confirmation bias though. People who want Dante probably do see it as wink-wink nudge-nudge, but it seems just as possible that there was no ulterior implication and he was being candid.

I mean for a long time people thought Hines' statement, limited as it was, was hinting towards Bethesda's inclusion. And clearly that was not the case.
Click to expand...
I love your signature. Is there a gallery with more of those pixel characters?
 
Cosmic77

Cosmic77

Smash Hero
Joined
Dec 17, 2017
Messages
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On a planet far far away...
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epicmartin7 said:
Recently, it was noted on several websites that various amiibo such as Isabelle would be getting restocks on April 17th. Usually this coincides with new amiibo releases, so it's possible we might be getting a Joker amiibo or something on that day as well. But it's too hard to know at this point.

However, using Amiibo theory, I have created a linear regression model based on already existing release dates to help aid in the prediction of future Smash Bros. character releases.

First off, I know it sounds nuts, but it's actually a thing I've been working on for several months and refining (if you see some of my previous posts, you can see me experimenting with earlier less refined calculations with some mistakes.)
I would go into detail on how the process works, however, I will be releasing a thesis on this whole thing in the future. And no... I'm not joking either. The plan is to divide the thesis into four parts
  • An abstract for those who just want a TL;DR.
  • A full detailed description of the process.
  • All the raw data and equations used.
  • And my interpretations and (of course) predictions using the data.
So for this post specifically, I won't be diving into too much detail. However, since it's math, it's only an approximation. None of this is concrete, and is only to aid predictions. It is still a helpful tool though!

Also, I should mention this is only based on North American data. I have the European and Japanese data recorded, but for time sake, North America data is what I have on hand with me.

So what did the North American model have to say? Well, there's two possibilities. The release date could be before or after the Amiibo wave. So because of that, there's two possible release dates according to the model.

Before Amiibo Wave: April 7th, 2020

After Amiibo Wave: April 28th, 2020

Again, there may be some variation there. It's not recommended to take the final value at face value (no pun intended.) It's good to use that value as a basis for a prediction.

Anyways, that's just my two cents into this. Again, the information should be released when it's ready. I'm busy with schooling right now, but once that settles down, I should have more time to finish the project.

So, what do you guys think of these predictions? Would be interesting to hear your thoughts. If any of you have any questions about this data, I'll try to answer it to the best of my ability. However, it may be a tad difficult due to the thesis not being available yet.
Click to expand...
I know you've probably spent a lot of time on this, and I don't mean to shoot this all down with something that could easily end up being wrong, but there's three things I want to point out.

(1) Amiibo Theory claims that new characters are revealed close to new amiibo release. This is because Sakurai typically talks about them in the character presentation. Because these are restocks, it's very unlikely Sakurai would bring them up at all. This suggests that we either aren't getting a presentation or we're getting a presentation that doesn't talk about amiibo.

(2) It's been a really long time since Nintendo revealed an amiibo that was released so soon afterwards. The closest they've ever revealed an amiibo to its release is with BotW Zelda and Bokoblin (roughly one month). The odds of Joker's amiibo being revealed in March a month before its release is pretty slim, and the date for Joker's amiibo is a strong indicator that a presentation is happening somewhere around that time.

(3) Sakurai could've done something similar with Banjo and Terry last year during Joker's presentation. He could've revealed Hero then, but he waited until E3 instead. Once we get to April, I don't see a point in revealing a character before E3. Unless the character is completed before then, they might as well wait for when they have a much larger audience.
 
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Knight Dude

Knight Dude

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I beat that new Strider game about a year ago. It's pretty great, so if we wanted someone else from Capcom that wasn't Dante/Phoenix/Ammy or more of MM/SF. He'd be my choice. Granted Capcom's got a ton of stuff to pull from, which is why it's so tough to just pick one character from there.

Strider, Hayabusa, Musashi, give us one cool ninja man and it'd be dope.
 
epicmartin7

epicmartin7

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Cosmic77 said:
I know you've probably spent a lot of time on this, and I don't mean to shoot this all down with something that could easily end up being wrong, but there's three things I want to point out.

(1) Amiibo Theory claims that new characters are revealed close to new amiibo release. This is because Sakurai typically talks about them in the character presentation. Because these are restocks, it's very unlikely Sakurai would bring them up at all. This suggests that we either aren't getting a presentation or we're getting a presentation that doesn't talk about amiibo.

(2) It's been a really long time since Nintendo revealed an amiibo that was released so soon afterwards. The closest they've ever revealed an amiibo to its release is with BotW Zelda and Bokoblin (roughly one month). The odds of Joker's amiibo being revealed in March a month before its release is pretty slim, and the date for Joker's amiibo is a strong indicator that a presentation is happening somewhere around that time.

(3) Sakurai could've done something similar with Banjo and Terry last year during Joker's presentation. He could've revealed Hero then, but he waited until E3 instead. Once we get to April, I don't see a point in revealing a character before E3. Unless the character is completed before then, they might as well wait for when they have a much larger audience.
Click to expand...
The equations I've made aren't meant to be pinpoint accurate. In fact, they're meant to be a tool to aid in predictions, not make them. So I fully expect it to be wrong. But for fun, I just wanted to throw my hat into the ring.

Next, the basis of Amiibo theory is a relationship between amiibo dates and character releases, not amiibo dates and character reveals, as one of the earliest posts about it shows.

And finally, we actually know one crucial piece of info about amiibo development. It takes a year from a fighter's release to finalize the design which fits in line within Joker's timeframe. Which adds some more fuel to the fire.

To basically put it, it is definitely possible this trend might break and throw my research into whack. However, until then, the prediction is still from the perspective that it doesn't. So it's definitely not future proof, but it at least helps with guess work for the fun of it.
 
Llort A. Ton

Llort A. Ton

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Wasnt really big on Final Fight, so I wouldnt get much of a kick out of Haggar Mike. If we get a beat em up character, I'd prefer someone from Streets of Rage. Or better yet, the Castle Crashers. Everyone's talkin "Microsoft Rep" this and "SNK Rep" that and "Indie Rep" whatever but we dont have ANY Newgrounds reps. Flash games are (technically) the biggest set of games with no content in Smash after all :4pacman:
 
G

Guynamednelson

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Llort A. Ton said:
"Indie Rep" whatever but we dont have ANY Newgrounds reps. Flash games are (technically) the biggest set of games with no content in Smash after all :4pacman:
Click to expand...
Technically a Flash game rep would be an indie rep.
 
G

Guynamednelson

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Geno Boost said:
The thing about this it’s not the one that has Porky included in it
Click to expand...
When they used a fan sprite for the Masked Man, I doubt they would ensure they used the right sprite for the ASC with Porky in it.
 
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King Sonnn DeDeDoo

King Sonnn DeDeDoo

Smash Champion
Joined
May 4, 2014
Messages
2,592
Location
The basement of the Alamo
Because I had time to kill, I decided to a bit of research on which potential newcomers have the largest communities on Reddit.

I listed out the subscriber count of 40 series plus Waluigi since he apparently has his own subreddit dedicated to him. If there’s any that slipped my mind and you want added in, do tell me.
  1. Minecraft- 2,579,541
  2. Skyrim- 815,158
  3. Halo- 410,513
  4. Monster Hunter- 358,833
  5. Tf2- 338,066
  6. Dark Souls- 298,952
  7. Kingdom Hearts- 187,834
  8. Mortal Kombat- 172,336
  9. Doom- 128,049
  10. Hollow Knight- 124,372
  11. Halflife- 104,122
  12. Danganronpa- 91,283
  13. Tekken- 89,705
  14. Nier- 76,756
  15. Devil May Cry- 67,523
  16. Touhou- 51,442
  17. Digimon- 51,128
  18. Megaten - 44,465
  19. Ace Attorney- 42,887
  20. Crash Bandicoot- 42,315
  21. Waluigi!- 39,713
  22. Soul Calibur- 39,081
  23. Yakuza- 38,128
  24. Tales-31,722
  25. Tomb Raider- 27,015
  26. Guilty Gear- 25,916
  27. Harvest Moon- 20,791
  28. Blazblue-15,723
  29. Dynasty Warriors-11,164
  30. Yokai watch- 9,901
  31. Bravely Default- 9,550
  32. Professor Layton- 6,913
  33. Okami-6,326
  34. TWEWY- 5,320
  35. Shantae- 5,055
  36. Cave Story- 4,442
  37. Taiko no Tatsuijin- 3,569
  38. Rayman- 3,523
  39. No more heroes- 1,817
  40. Scribblenauts- 1,473
  41. Ninja Gaiden- 1,259
  42. Puyo pop- 1,009
  43. Xenosaga- 601

So what does this tell us for Smash?

Absolutely nothing!

while it’s interesting trivia, don’t go around saying that Series A is more popular and likely to be in Smash than Series B just because the number of Reddit subscribers. Just take a look at fighter pass 1’s series subscribers.

Persona 5- 175,119
BanjoKazooie-9,187
King of Fighters- 9,011
Dragon Quest- 49,171
Fire Emblem- 226,680

It’s interesting to see which potential DLC series are popular within the scope of Reddit, even if it has little effect on anything.
 
Last edited:
Idon

Idon

Smash Legend
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King Sonnn DeDeDoo said:
Because I had time to kill, I decided to a bit of research on which potential newcomers have the largest communities on Reddit.

I listed out the subscriber count of 40 series plus Waluigi since he apparently has his own subreddit dedicated to him. If there’s any that slipped my mind and you want added in, do tell me.
  1. Minecraft- 2,579,541
  2. Skyrim- 815,158
  3. Halo- 410,513
  4. Monster Hunter- 358,833
  5. Tf2- 338,066
  6. Dark Souls- 298,952
  7. Kingdom Hearts- 187,834
  8. Mortal Kombat- 172,336
  9. Doom- 128,049
  10. Hollow Knight- 124,372
  11. Halflife- 104,122
  12. Tekken- 89,705
  13. Nier- 76,756
  14. Devil May Cry- 67,523
  15. Touhou- 51,442
  16. Digimon- 51,128
  17. Ace Attorney- 42,887
  18. Crash Bandicoot- 42,315
  19. Waluigi!- 39,713
  20. Soul Calibur- 39,081
  21. Yakuza- 38,128
  22. Tales-31,722
  23. Tomb Raider- 27,015
  24. Guilty Gear- 25,916
  25. Harvest Moon- 20,791
  26. Blazblue-15,723
  27. Dynasty Warriors-11,164
  28. Yokai watch- 9,901
  29. Bravely Default- 9,550
  30. Professor Layton- 6,913
  31. Okami-6,326
  32. TWEWY- 5,320
  33. Shantae- 5,055
  34. Cave Story- 4,442
  35. Taiko no Tatsuijin- 3,569
  36. Rayman- 3,523
  37. No more heroes- 1,817
  38. Scribblenauts- 1,473
  39. Ninja Gaiden- 1,259
  40. Puyo pop- 1,009
  41. Xenosaga- 601

So what does this tell us for Smash?

Absolutely nothing!

while it’s interesting trivia, don’t go around saying that Series A is more popular and likely to be in Smash than Series B just because the number of Reddit subscribers. Just take a look at fighter pass 1’s series subscribers.

Persona 5- 175,119
BanjoKazooie-9,187
King of Fighters- 9,011
Dragon Quest- 49,171
Fire Emblem- 226,680

It’s interesting to see which potential DLC series are popular within the scope of Reddit, even if it has little effect on anything.
Click to expand...
r/megaten with the 44,465 subscribers.

demi pixie shades.png

deconfirmations can't hurt me, these shades are gucci.
 
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Kokiden

Kokiden

Smash Ace
Joined
Apr 24, 2019
Messages
782
Madame Lesley said:

Pretty much.

Sakurai can change his tactics anytime...
Click to expand...
I think it's a good thing nobody knows.

There's a wide variety of speculation theories to entertain and discuss.

Would be nice if we can get a nice reaction for the opening of season 2 like how Joker was for season 1.
 
D

Deleted member

Guest
Kokiden said:
I think it's a good thing nobody knows.

There's a wide variety of speculation theories to entertain and discuss.

Would be nice if we can get a nice reaction for the opening of season 2 like how Joker was for season 1.
Click to expand...
It also puts everyone on a more equal level, rather than having frontrunners and whatnot. Because trust me, having all of these frontrunners is not a good thing if you ask me. What a hell it must have been for the Hunger Games-esque level of debate and speculation only for everyone to be shocked with a Fire Emblem character.
 
XorahnGaia

XorahnGaia

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Joined
Nov 24, 2019
Messages
309
Does anyone remember my stupid theory about the SW/SH spirits missing from the Spirit Board being a sign of a Gen 8 being one of the six character in Volume 2? No? Well it doesn't matter because they just decided to add the Pokèmon (and RE) spirits to the normal rotation without waiting for the next upodate

So yeah, that meant nothing in the end.

On the flipside, the fact that they just added this spirits at random could mean that we aren't getting any major update soon.
Even without taking the Amiibo restock in consideration I doubt anyone expected the next character to release before April, but this could also be a point in favor for #TeamNoNewCharactersUntilE3.
 
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D

Deleted member

Guest
XorahnGaia said:
On the flipside, the fact that they just added this spirits at random could mean that we aren't getting any major update soon.
Even without taking the Amiibo restock in consideration I doubt anyone expected the next character to release before April, but this could also be a point in favor for #TeamNoCharactersUntilE3.
Click to expand...
Hmm...considering that it's still technically late Tuesday from where you guys are from, I do think that we aren't getting a major update. dman, the wait period is going to be a REALLY LONG ONE.

But seriously, if the wait period for the characters is THIS long, then they really have to reward us for our patience.
 
L

Lionfranky

Smash Lord
Joined
Oct 4, 2019
Messages
1,012
King Sonnn DeDeDoo said:
Because I had time to kill, I decided to a bit of research on which potential newcomers have the largest communities on Reddit.

I listed out the subscriber count of 40 series plus Waluigi since he apparently has his own subreddit dedicated to him. If there’s any that slipped my mind and you want added in, do tell me.
  1. Minecraft- 2,579,541
  2. Skyrim- 815,158
  3. Halo- 410,513
  4. Monster Hunter- 358,833
  5. Tf2- 338,066
  6. Dark Souls- 298,952
  7. Kingdom Hearts- 187,834
  8. Mortal Kombat- 172,336
  9. Doom- 128,049
  10. Hollow Knight- 124,372
  11. Halflife- 104,122
  12. Tekken- 89,705
  13. Nier- 76,756
  14. Devil May Cry- 67,523
  15. Touhou- 51,442
  16. Digimon- 51,128
  17. Ace Attorney- 42,887
  18. Crash Bandicoot- 42,315
  19. Waluigi!- 39,713
  20. Soul Calibur- 39,081
  21. Yakuza- 38,128
  22. Tales-31,722
  23. Tomb Raider- 27,015
  24. Guilty Gear- 25,916
  25. Harvest Moon- 20,791
  26. Blazblue-15,723
  27. Dynasty Warriors-11,164
  28. Yokai watch- 9,901
  29. Bravely Default- 9,550
  30. Professor Layton- 6,913
  31. Okami-6,326
  32. TWEWY- 5,320
  33. Shantae- 5,055
  34. Cave Story- 4,442
  35. Taiko no Tatsuijin- 3,569
  36. Rayman- 3,523
  37. No more heroes- 1,817
  38. Scribblenauts- 1,473
  39. Ninja Gaiden- 1,259
  40. Puyo pop- 1,009
  41. Xenosaga- 601

So what does this tell us for Smash?

Absolutely nothing!

while it’s interesting trivia, don’t go around saying that Series A is more popular and likely to be in Smash than Series B just because the number of Reddit subscribers. Just take a look at fighter pass 1’s series subscribers.

Persona 5- 175,119
BanjoKazooie-9,187
King of Fighters- 9,011
Dragon Quest- 49,171
Fire Emblem- 226,680

It’s interesting to see which potential DLC series are popular within the scope of Reddit, even if it has little effect on anything.
Click to expand...
So what do you say about sales number in Japan? Is that really damning factor against characters like Master Chief?
 
Cutie Gwen

Cutie Gwen

Lovely warrior
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Messages
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King Sonnn DeDeDoo said:
Because I had time to kill, I decided to a bit of research on which potential newcomers have the largest communities on Reddit.

I listed out the subscriber count of 40 series plus Waluigi since he apparently has his own subreddit dedicated to him. If there’s any that slipped my mind and you want added in, do tell me.
  1. Minecraft- 2,579,541
  2. Skyrim- 815,158
  3. Halo- 410,513
  4. Monster Hunter- 358,833
  5. Tf2- 338,066
  6. Dark Souls- 298,952
  7. Kingdom Hearts- 187,834
  8. Mortal Kombat- 172,336
  9. Doom- 128,049
  10. Hollow Knight- 124,372
  11. Halflife- 104,122
  12. Tekken- 89,705
  13. Nier- 76,756
  14. Devil May Cry- 67,523
  15. Touhou- 51,442
  16. Digimon- 51,128
  17. Ace Attorney- 42,887
  18. Crash Bandicoot- 42,315
  19. Waluigi!- 39,713
  20. Soul Calibur- 39,081
  21. Yakuza- 38,128
  22. Tales-31,722
  23. Tomb Raider- 27,015
  24. Guilty Gear- 25,916
  25. Harvest Moon- 20,791
  26. Blazblue-15,723
  27. Dynasty Warriors-11,164
  28. Yokai watch- 9,901
  29. Bravely Default- 9,550
  30. Professor Layton- 6,913
  31. Okami-6,326
  32. TWEWY- 5,320
  33. Shantae- 5,055
  34. Cave Story- 4,442
  35. Taiko no Tatsuijin- 3,569
  36. Rayman- 3,523
  37. No more heroes- 1,817
  38. Scribblenauts- 1,473
  39. Ninja Gaiden- 1,259
  40. Puyo pop- 1,009
  41. Xenosaga- 601

So what does this tell us for Smash?

Absolutely nothing!

while it’s interesting trivia, don’t go around saying that Series A is more popular and likely to be in Smash than Series B just because the number of Reddit subscribers. Just take a look at fighter pass 1’s series subscribers.

Persona 5- 175,119
BanjoKazooie-9,187
King of Fighters- 9,011
Dragon Quest- 49,171
Fire Emblem- 226,680

It’s interesting to see which potential DLC series are popular within the scope of Reddit, even if it has little effect on anything.
Click to expand...
Oh god considering how Reddit usually is I fear that all 1817 people on the NMH reddit don't get the point and think Travis is the coolest guy ever
 
SuperSmashStephen

SuperSmashStephen

Smash Ace
Joined
Apr 11, 2017
Messages
873
What are y’all going to do if and when a Gen 8 Pokémon is revealed as a fighter for Volume 2, and your fan theories are dashed upon the rocks?
 
D

Deleted member

Guest
SuperSmashStephen said:
What are y’all going to do if and when a Gen 8 Pokémon is revealed as a fighter for Volume 2, and your fan theories are dashed upon the rocks?
Click to expand...
I'm no fan of fan theories, but sometimes they gt stuff messed up or they manipulate stuff into their own favor
 
Flyboy

Flyboy

Smash Hero
Joined
Aug 26, 2010
Messages
5,281
Location
Dayton, OH
SuperSmashStephen said:
What are y’all going to do if and when a Gen 8 Pokémon is revealed as a fighter for Volume 2, and your fan theories are dashed upon the rocks?
Click to expand...
Figure out new ones?

Same old song and dance. It's called Speculation because we craft theories and as new data comes out that challenges those theories we hypothesize and make new ones.
 
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G

Guynamednelson

Smash Legend
Joined
Dec 17, 2014
Messages
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Nelson340
3DS FC
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Switch FC
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SuperSmashStephen said:
What are y’all going to do if and when a Gen 8 Pokémon is revealed as a fighter for Volume 2, and your fan theories are dashed upon the rocks?
Click to expand...
Implying doing something else for the next Pokemon rep wouldn't be what dashes fan theories.
 
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