Ok so I was just thinking about things and how the next fighters pass could go. In order to predict what the next 6 DLC fighters could be, it's important to look at the first fighters pass and see what patterns we saw.
First, we saw a return of some companies as well as new companies. Returning companies were Sega, Square Enix, and Nintendo themselves. We also saw new companies in the form of Microsoft and SNK. We can tell from this that Nintendo wanted to not only negotiate with companies already involved with Smash, but also bring in new companies. Not surprisingly, a common theme with all these companies is that they are close with Nintendo and most of them have had a long history with Nintendo. Looking at the lineup, it's almost an even split between veteran and new companies.
What we can pull from this is that Nintendo will likely do another balance between old and new companies again. The tricky part is which companies. Sega has Shin Megami Tensei, Yakuza, and Puyo Puyo. Square Enix has Geno, Sora, Lara Croft, and people will argue, 2B. Microsoft has Steve and Master Chief. Now, with SNK, I can't picture them getting another rep because they already gave a huge amount of Fatal Fury and King of Fighters content, as well as music tracks from Samurai Shodown, Metal Slug, and Athena. That's all their biggest franchises and while there is still a decent amount of new SNK content another rep could bring, I feel like SNK is represented enough. I mean, just look at the 50 songs. It's possible, but I think from this, another SNK rep is unlikely so that is one company we can put low on the tier list of likely companies.
In terms of new companies, what are some different companies that Nintendo would approach? The ones that jump to my head are Level 5, Bethesda, Activision, Tecmo (they got spirits, but no playable rep), and Marvelous Entertainment. This list isn't even counting companies like Capcom, Bandai Namco, and Konami who all have reps, but no DLC fighters in the first fighters pass. The companies that were in the first fighters pass are very close to Nintendo, and so are pretty much all the new companies I mentioned. Level 5 is one of the biggest video game companies in Japan and has supported Nintendo for many years. Bethesda has supported the Switch with big AAA games since its conception. Activision has been quite cooperative with Nintendo and has put a pretty good amount of games on the Switch. Tecmo has been with Nintendo for a very long time. Finally, Marvelous Entertainment is pretty big in Japan and has supported Nintendo since the GBA days.
In terms of Capcom, Bamco, and Konami, they are all in different situations. Capcom has a s*** ton of history with Nintendo and has probably the biggest library of characters that would work in Smash. Bamco develops Ultimate and honestly is overdue for another character. Konami seems generous these days with all the Castlevania content and they are also a company with a long history with Nintendo.
When it comes to Nintendo reps, we are in a weird spot. Assist trophy upgrades are very iffy and with Three Houses having a rep now, the one game sticking out is Sword/Shield which recently got a spirit event so that really hurts the chances of a rep from those games. I strongly believe that spirits can certainly be upgraded. lucas had a trophy in Smash 4 before he became playable and I feel like a situation similar to that could very well happen again. With all that said, in terms of the likeliest 1st party I believe they are Rex, Bandana Waddle Dee, and Dixie Kong.
As for anyone asking about Ubisoft, I have no hope for them. Rayman's recent games didn't sell that well in Japan and both the Rabbids and even Assassin's Creed got Mii costumes. Rayman has been teased since Smash 4 and honestly I feel like his spirit and the other Ubisoft Mii costumes is a sign that Nintendo really likes Ubisoft, but not to the point of giving them a character.
And for Indies, I think not. Undertale took the world (including Japan) by storm and yet all we got was a Mii costume and one music track. Then Cuphead got the same treatment. It seems like indies will just get the special Mii costume treatment. Sorry Quote, Shantae, Hollow Knight, and Reimu, but I think at the most you all will get is a Mii costume and one music track.
Now that we have a list of all the top candidates, it's time to mention all the top potential characters.
- Sega
- Shin Megami Tensei rep
- Yakuza rep
- Puyo Puyo rep (most likely Arle Nadja)
- Square Enix
- Microsoft
- Nintendo
- Rex
- Bandana Waddle Dee
- Dixie Kong
- Level 5
- Professor Layton
- Jibanyan
- Bethesda
- Activision
- Crash
- Spyro
- Overwatch maybe? They said that Nintendo could have any of their heroes and that was in September. That might have been too late when it comes negotiating for a spot in the second fighters pass.
- Tecmo
- Marvelous Entertainment
- Harvest Moon/Story of Seasons
- Capcom
- Phoenix Wright
- Dante
- Monster Hunter
- Amaterasu
- Bandai Namco
- Lloyd Irving
- Heihachi
- Nightmare
- Agumon
- Konami
Obviously this is not a definitive list and I know I will get some flak for leaving out some characters, but I genuinely think these are the most likely characters.
Now let's play a game. Seeing that the first fighters pass was divided evenly by new and returning companies, I will try to do the same here and that is how I will try to predict the second wave of fighters. 3 from old companies, 3 from new companies. By new companies, I mean companies that have not had a single playable rep in Smash yet. Old companies refer to any company that already has a fighter in the game.
As we saw from the first fighters pass, there were no company repeats, so it's safe to assume the same applies to the second fighters pass. Of course, this ain't a hard rule, but at least for this game it will be a guideline. And by no company repeats, I mean repeats in the same pass. So the companies from the first pass could get another rep in the second pass.
This will obviously be extremely difficult because I will inevitably leave out some companies that have as much merit to have another character in the fighters pass. At this point, I will just go with my gut feeling. Now let's move onto the game.
1. Geno - And this is where I will already be put to death. Yes I'm saying this now: I think Geno will the Square Enix rep. I'm saying this because the other Square characters have more of an issue getting in (in my opinion). I know that is funny coming from someone supporting a character from a spin-off game from decades ago, but hear me out. When it comes to Disney, I don't think they will be difficult to negotiate with like a lot of people believe. However, the licensing fees could be high and while Kingdom Hearts could be included with no Disney original content, Sakurai could have a problem with only having half the content and charm of Kingdom Hearts be included. Having Disney content be included would break Sakurai's one hard rule: No 4th party content. When it comes to Lara Croft, she is not requested as much and she is still a western characters which does hurt her chances. As for 2B, she and her games have zero Nintendo presence.
Geno himself is one of the few remaining long-term high requested characters and Sakurai has expressed interest in the character. This is a game filled with fan requested characters and I think this is Geno's best shot.
2. Phoenix Wright - The battle for a Capcom rep comes down to Phoenix and Dante. Both are requested characters and I could see it going either way. I give Phoenix the edge because he has more Nintendo history and he is the type of wacky character Sakurai likes to pick.
3. Steve - If people didn't hate me at this point, I'm sure some of them will. Yes I think Steve from Minecraft is going to get in. His main competitor Banjo is already in the game and with a fresh new pass, that leaves a new opportunity for Nintendo to negotiate with Microsoft for a new character. Nintendo loves Minecraft. They use it in a lot of promotional material and they know that Minecraft content would sell like hot cakes because Minecraft is a huge game that is very popular worldwide, including Japan. Yes, a game being popular and successful does not mean that it's going to be in Smash. But it certainly helps a lot.
4. Crash Bandicoot - Crash is popular in both Japan and the west. He is highly requested and does very well on fan polls. With his recent revival, he is back in the minds of the general public. He just makes sense.
5. Dovahkiin. I'll just quote myself from Rate Their Chances because I think I hit the nail on this one:
Fus-Roh-Dah!
Chance: 55%
I'm gonna go confident with this one. I think the Dragonborn is one of our frontrunners right now, especially with Doom Slayer seemingly out of the running. Why am I so confident in his chances? First, Bethesda is one of the few western companies I can see Nintendo and Sakurai approaching for a character. Bethesda was one of the first few major 3rd party characters to support the Switch. Skyrim was one of the first games shown off for the Switch and Bethesda continued delivering major releases for the Switch such as Doom 2016 (and now all the major Doom games including Doom Eternal) and Wolfenstein 2. Bethesda and Nintendo seem to have a very good relationship right now.
Second, Skyrim was one of the biggest games of the last decade. It was even the first Western game to have a perfect 40/40 score on Famitsu (
https://www.eurogamer.net/articles/...estern-game-to-receive-a-40-40-famitsu-review). That, combined with Skyrim selling pretty well in Japan is a big deal. In fact, Skyrim is the type of game that Japanese players and players in a variety of different countries are interested in: Fantasy Action RPG that you can get lost in. Skyrim is an iconic game, in fact, it's part of an important series. The Elder Scrolls is an iconic series starting in the 90s and lasting up to this day with Elder Scrolls 6 coming sometime soon in the future (And chances are, Bethesda will try to get it on Switch). It's an important series that helped popularize fantasy games and open world games.
And don't forget, the people behind Breath of the Wild admitted that they took inspiration from Skyrim (
https://www.gamespot.com/articles/how-skyrim-influenced-breath-of-the-wild/1100-6455780/). BOTW might not have been as great if it wasn't for Skyrim. That, combined with Skyrim's legacy and long-lasting popularity and cultural impact, makes the game something significant that would catch Sakurai's attention.
As for a moveset, Dovahkiin has plenty to work with. He has axes, shields, long swords, maces, and a variety of spells such as a reanimating spell that makes dead enemies fight for you, a fire spell, ice spell, a spell to enhance armor, a spell to teleport a Wolf ally next to you, paralysis spell, telekinesis, area of effect spells, etc. Sakurai could add a unique mechanic to Dovahkiin where he can enhance his weapons and even coat different spells onto them. For example, Dragonborn could have a regular mace that he can add a fire effect or paralysis effect to it. The possibilities are endless. As for skins, the automatic one will go to the iconic nordic armor set seen in so much of the promotional material and the other 7 skins can be of other species you can play as.
And that is why I think Dragonborn/Dovahkiin is one of the most likely characters right now. Honestly, if he was a japanese character, I would have given him a 70% chance. Him being a western character does hurt his chances quite a bit, but he is one of the few I can see making it in for reasons I've stated.
6. Ryu Hayabusa - Ryu is an icon from the NES era. Ninja Gaiden is one of the few NES legends not represented yet and Ryu has plenty of interesting moveset potential to separate himself from Greninja and Sheik. Plus, he fits the theme of underwhelming final characters for Smash. Not that Ryu is a bad character or anything. He is just not that requested and the only reason why he got a bunch of attention was from iamshifty who swore that Ryu was going to be in the first fighters pass, which turned out to be false. Still, that doesn't decrease his chances.
So with this train of thought, the likely characters are:
1. Geno
2. Phoenix Wright
3. Steve
4. Crash
5. Dovahkiin
6. Ryu Hayabusa
To be honest, this is a real stretch, especially since Nintendo could very well not split it up evenly and, for example, may only bring in characters from companies already involved with Smash. I guess this just proves that no matter how much you break things down, our predictions can still be far off. But you know what? This was fun to make and hopefully it got some of you thinking. Well, if any of you bothered reading this much...which is like holy s*** I probably should stop typing because this is a lot.
Edit: Dammit I forgot about Travis Touchdown. See what I mean? Too many video game characters. I guess I will still stick with my list.