Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[PeridotGX]

If Nintendo does add another promotional character, I'm not sure what they'd go with out of our current lineup. Aside from Astral Chain, SwSh, and maybe BotW2, there aren't many options to choose from.

We might get a few more contenders at E3, but still, that's not a guarantee. I'd say a promotional character would have to come from any of the three games mentioned above unless something else comes up.

Pokemon Mystery Dungeon is an option, it's relevant again and has no content in Smash.

 

[ALongWistfulSquiggle]

I get the feeling that we could be getting another promotional character, but it's probably for a game we don't know about yet. We know maybe four Nintendo games coming out this year? And for all we know a promotional pick could be for something Nintendo knows is in the pipeline for 2021.

Are there any franchises that are due for a new game that Nintendo would want to push like Fire Emblem? Kirby's the main thing I'm thinking of. I don't know if Nintendo would feel the need to promote Zelda or Mario in the same way.

 

[Sc_Ev0lution]

Reimu seems like a perfect character to get the Sans/Cuphead treatment. Indy character, makes sense with a Gunner moveset, and can come packaged with UN Owen Was Her.

I agree. I don't think she would work really well as a character; a Mii costume is probably a better option.
And "U.N. Owen Was Her?" is amazing

While think Reimu does have ample room for a fun and creative moveset, as evidenced by the six fighting games and soon-to-be action platformer all of which are included in the official cannon of Touhou, not fan works; I do think a Reimu mii costume is a distinct possibility. Many Reimu fans say that Touhou representation would be all or nothing, because while Reimu lacks the meme power of Sans or the acute, gaming-media oriented popularity of Cuphead, Touhou's extensive and weighty history is too much to rest on Reimu alone and would require the full character pass treatment to feel whole. And though I greatly sympathize with this line of thought, you can't disregard the idea that Sakurai may want to represent as many characters as possible, no matter the form.

However, I disagree that she'd be a Mii gunner. While yes, Touhou games are bullet-hell shooters for the most part, Reimu doesn't really have a suitable weapon for the gun-arm. What could you give her: a ying-yan orb? a handful of ofuda (sealing charms) or needles? I think it would be more sensible to make her a Swordfighter wielding her gohei. And, let's be honest, mii Swordfighter already plays like a zoner anyway.

Spoiler: Gohei

Also, while U.N. Owen Was Her? is almost certainly the most popular touhou song, it's not as though Reimu herself doesn't have half a dozen themes herself that, imo, would be more fitting. Of them, I see Maiden's Capriccio ~ Dream Battle as the most likely.

 

[SKX31]

If you want to discuss a lack of a spirit event what about Ring Fit? Ran out of stock in one country Japan iirc or or at least one close to one where Nintendo is based. Of course we could still get one but it has taken nearly twice the amount of time for Astral Chain to get one. Obviously this all probably amounts to nothing but worth discussing nonetheless

It's doing surprisingly well in more countries. IIRC:

France
South Korea (Got local ads there).
In China people are seriously selling the game at up to $170. With the median price at $100. And people still buy it, even more so due to the coronavirus lockdown.

For starters, FE is doing well, but saying it's Nintendo's third biggest franchise is a huge exaggeration. Outside the big 3 (Mario [spinoffs included], Zelda, Pokemon), it's still dwarfed by Smash, Animal Crossing, and Splatoon. The best comparison is calling it an equal to Kirby, because sales have been pretty close between the two franchises lately. It got a character because of good timing and a rotating cast.

Second, you're focusing on money and sales, which wasn't the point I was trying to make at all. A lot of people still dislike Corrin and Bayo as a character to this day because of Smash. I think there were better ways of promoting 3H, most of which wouldn't have caused such an uproar. I don't expect Byleth to be an easy topic for conversation any time soon, which is why I say adding him may have done more harm to his name than good.

It's honestly difficult to say. If I may generalize a lot:

IMHO it'll depend a lot on if Average Joe / Jane sees the Byleth addition the same way as the hardcore do. Which isn't easy to tell in advance - in some cases like DmC: DMC things got bad enough PR-wise that Capcom quietly shifted gears after the dust had settled. With not that much to show for it: "Donte"'s image stuck even with those that didn't follow the game closely. By contrast, Dexit seemed to be everywhere pre-release, but the loss of Pokemon might not matter as much in an era where A) "Gotta Catch 'Em All"'s been retired long ago, and B) Pokemon GO already had incremental additions - setting the stage for the season passes. So the Average Joe / Jane didn't see it the way the

At the end of the day, I'm gonna wait with judging how much impact the Byleth protests had. Until 1) Data comes in, whether 3H sees a sales bump Post-Smash - like Persona 5 and DQXI got - or not, 2) Whether Byleth's reputation in the game improves. Doesn't look like he's splitting the competitive community hard like Hero did, and 3) We see how well recieved 3H's DLC will be. That could change perceptions a bit.

 

[Eldrake]

I get the feeling that we could be getting another promotional character, but it's probably for a game we don't know about yet. We know maybe four Nintendo games coming out this year? And for all we know a promotional pick could be for something Nintendo knows is in the pipeline for 2021.

Are there any franchises that are due for a new game that Nintendo would want to push like Fire Emblem? Kirby's the main thing I'm thinking of. I don't know if Nintendo would feel the need to promote Zelda or Mario in the same way.

We could see a character from the rumored Metroid 5.

Spoiler: Potential Metroid 5 spoiler

There's the possibility that a promotional character from it could be a Chozo, which would be absolutely amazing to me as a Metroid fanboy.

 

[RileyXY1]

We could see a character from the rumored Metroid 5.

Spoiler: Potential Metroid 5 spoiler

There's the possibility that a promotional character from it could be a Chozo, which would be absolutely amazing to me as a Metroid fanboy.

Metroid 5 already exists. It's just called Metroid Other M instead.

 

[Diddy Kong]

I'm still salty Hubert isn't on the three houses map. Was he too scary to put in or something? Every other house has their main cheese and then they kinda just shove in Petra.

It doesn't really matter but I like Hubert and they gave my man the shaft like that when Dedue and Hilda just waltz in

Dorothea and Petra are just about steadily the most used characters in Three Houses's leader board, so they're the most popular. I mean, why is LORENZ even on the Golden Deer part? His supports are great, but Lysithea is way more popular. I also don't quite agree with Ingrid over Felix honestly.

 

[Hadokeyblade]

Metroid 5 already exists. It's just called Metroid Other M instead.

This probably just angered someone lol

 

[DarthEnderX]

Many Reimu fans say that Touhou representation would be all or nothing, because while Reimu lacks the meme power of Sans or the acute, gaming-media oriented popularity of Cuphead, Touhou's extensive and weighty history is too much to rest on Reimu alone and would require the full character pass treatment to feel whole.

Well obviously Reimu fans are going to think she should be a full character. What fandom would rather their character be a costume.

However, I disagree that she'd be a Mii gunner. While yes, Touhou games are bullet-hell shooters for the most part, Reimu doesn't really have a suitable weapon for the gun-arm. What could you give her: a ying-yan orb? a handful of ofuda (sealing charms) or needles? I think it would be more sensible to make her a Swordfighter wielding her gohei.

There's no reason her gohei can't just be her Gunner weapon. I mean, Sans' gun is a skull and Cuphead's gun is his hand.

Also, while U.N. Owen Was Her? is almost certainly the most popular touhou song, it's not as though Reimu herself doesn't have half a dozen themes herself that, imo, would be more fitting.

It's not like Floral Fury is Cuphead's theme either though. It's just one of the most popular songs from a memorable boss fight. Just like UN Owen.

 

[Invisible Shiny Bulbasaur]

Metroid 5 already exists. It's just called Metroid Other M instead.

Technically Other M is more like Metroid 3.5, because it's set between Super and Fusion.

 

[Lamperouge]

Metroid 5 already exists. It's just called Metroid Other M instead.

It's not a direct sequel to Fusion so it doesn't count.

This probably just angered someone lol

Me.

 

[Eldrake]

Metroid 5 already exists. It's just called Metroid Other M instead.

Why are you bringing up a game that doesn't exist?

 

[wynn728]

And yet playing as Byleth in Smash also builds a connection with them. I know people who hate Corrin in the FE games and who hate Fates and who still likes and wants to play as them in Smash because they like how he acts and plays in Smash. That's building a connection. That's resonating with a character. That's without the character having a history behind them. They just liked how they played in Smash. That's why there's always a chance even a character whose game is still making history can find a player that wanted them.

Recent characters always tend to be controversial, and yet people pick them up anyway. Whether it's casual or competitive, both Corrin and Byleth had something attractive about them for someone to want to play as them. That's why we do need extremely new characters for Smash. They can't all be boomer picks after all.

If that's the case then when should Smash Bros bother putting in characters that already exist and just go the Street Fighter route of making brand new and unique characters? I'm not asking for super old character, I'm say wait and let the character be at least a year old before you start shoving them into games. Let the character grow and be established before you put all your money on this newcomer. Imagine if Three Houses came out and it was a bad game; glitchy, have terrible characters and a bad story. If the game the characters don't matter and it's just about the moveset then there is zero reason for Smash Bros to be a crossover fighting game and should just start making up characters.

 

[Invisible Shiny Bulbasaur]

I'm aware of that argument, but what I mean is that they can get the stupidly large hit VERY easily, especially as Granblue's already branched out of just mobile gaming with an anime, the Arcsys game, that game Platinum worked on, etc

I'll admit, I know very little about the Granblue franchise. I've tried to learn a bit more about it, but a Google search or two left me feeling more overloaded with information and unclear on what exactly it's all about.

 

[Rocketjay8]

On the topic of FPS reps, Gordon Freeman feels like a realistic choice and I could totally see Nintendo approach Valve about Smash or vice versa.

Gordon Freeman? I would think that someone from TF2 like Heavy would be more fitting for Smash.

 

[Cap'n Jack]

On to my second prediction for the fighter pass vol 2. , and for this let’s look to the second character chosen for volume 1: Hero.

Something present in both Smash DLC “seasons” is grabbing a big time Japanese video game icon. The other season I am referring to is with Smash 4’s Ryu and Cloud. Of course this also expands beyond the DLC and into the base rosters with characters such as Mega Man, PAC-Man, Sonic, and Simon Belmont, but I’d argue these are more fan picks. The difference between those base game picks and Ryu and Cloud is that the likes of Mega Man, PAC-Man, Sonic, and Simon are less relevant and half of them are quasi Nintendo characters, where as Street Fighter and Final Fantasy are still top sellers to this day. Cloud and Ryu just feel like they are in a different category.

This brings us to Hero whose Dragon Quest is still a top seller as well. Hero continues the trend of big flashy Japanese IPs getting inas DLC. I don’t see this trend ending with volume 2.

So who is that big Japanese gaming icon? Well my second picks is:

Dante

With Resident Evil being spirited away, this takes away one of the biggest Japanese franchises left to make it into Smash. So who else would it be? Sora? It could be, and it would certainly make a splash, but even rights negotiations aside, I am not sure Sakurai would want to bring in a character with such fourth party DNA. He has directly and recently spoken out against fourth party characters such as Goki and Iron Man, that I am not sure he’ll want to bring in Sora who would feel neutered without his Disney references in the Mickey on his key blade and Donald and Goofy in his final smash, spirits, or any aspect of Sora being in Smash. I’m just not sure Sakurai would want to go through all of that hassle to bring over a neutered character. However not saying it is impossible, just not my pick.

So this leads me to Capcom’s wheelhouse who is one of, if not the biggest Japanese gaming companies without their own console full of big time IPs. And again this leads me to Dante, who has had some odd comments with those responsible for making his games. I could see Dante as a likely pick and my second choice.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

I'll admit, I know very little about the Granblue franchise. I've tried to learn a bit more about it, but a Google search or two left me feeling more overloaded with information and unclear on what exactly it's all about.

It's a gacha and it rakes in 1 billion yen every month I believe. I'm not an expert either though lol

 

[Sc_Ev0lution]

There's no reason her gohei can't just be her Gunner weapon. I mean, Sans' gun is a skull and Cuphead's gun is his hand.

uhhh, I think it makes more sense to hold a big stick like a sword and not awkwardly scrunched into the gunner model tbh

It's not like Floral Fury is Cuphead's theme either though. It's just one of the most popular songs from a memorable boss fight. Just like UN Owen.

Oh for sure I think U.N. Owen makes sense. But Maiden's Capriccio is still decently popular, and with regards to Touhou pairing characters and music is very, very, important. In that regard, selecting a Reimu theme for a Reimu costume seems rather apt.

If the Touhou content you want in smash in U.N. Owen was her, why not advocate a Flandre Scarlet mii costume?

Side note: I didn't know Cuphead has his own theme

 

[ALongWistfulSquiggle]

It's a gacha and it rakes in 1 billion yen every month I believe. I'm not an expert either though lol

There's a browser game, too, I think. From what I understand it exists in English, but you have to wade through a bunch of Japanese text to get to it.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Lol pic.twitter.com/bQbJxlVFW1

— FalKoopa🌈 (@FalKoopa_) February 5, 2020

Lmao this is gonna spread sooooo much misinfo if Sakurai adds another sword character, Smash fans would look at Soul Calibur and SamSho and assume everyone's a clone

 

[Will]

I get the feeling that we could be getting another promotional character, but it's probably for a game we don't know about yet. We know maybe four Nintendo games coming out this year?

Out of all the games confirmed coming out this year, the only promotional pick I can see is NMH3 or BOTW2.

 

[ALongWistfulSquiggle]

Out of all the games confirmed coming out this year, the only promotional pick I can see is NMH3 or BOTW2.

That's just it. There's probably a good three or four first party games we don't know about. And then there's next year, which we know nothing about. The only games that were announced before 2019's E3 that still haven't released are SMT 5, Bayonetta 3, and Metroid Prime 4. I could see Nintendo wanting a Metroid character for that or a new 2d game, actually. I know people were talking about Sylux for the base game, but if he's in a new Metroid game, he might actually be an option.

 

[Yeast9267]

Sword/Shield pokemon would be awesome for a new dlc character. Sirfetch'd or Cinderace could be cool.

 

[Opossum]

If people have to resort to using alternate fictional universes where Three Houses was a flop to say Byleth was a bad addition, then Byleth was a good addition.

 

[Will]

The only games that were announced before 2019's E3 that still haven't released are SMT 5, Bayonetta 3, and Metroid Prime 4.

Ah, yes. The Development Hell Trio.

 

[Deleted member]

Good morning everyone.

I'm pretty sure it's the same old discussions here and out..

 

[Jerry98]

While think Reimu does have ample room for a fun and creative moveset, as evidenced by the six fighting games and soon-to-be action platformer all of which are included in the official cannon of Touhou, not fan works; I do think a Reimu mii costume is a distinct possibility. Many Reimu fans say that Touhou representation would be all or nothing, because while Reimu lacks the meme power of Sans or the acute, gaming-media oriented popularity of Cuphead, Touhou's extensive and weighty history is too much to rest on Reimu alone and would require the full character pass treatment to feel whole. And though I greatly sympathize with this line of thought, you can't disregard the idea that Sakurai may want to represent as many characters as possible, no matter the form.

However, I disagree that she'd be a Mii gunner. While yes, Touhou games are bullet-hell shooters for the most part, Reimu doesn't really have a suitable weapon for the gun-arm. What could you give her: a ying-yan orb? a handful of ofuda (sealing charms) or needles? I think it would be more sensible to make her a Swordfighter wielding her gohei. And, let's be honest, mii Swordfighter already plays like a zoner anyway.

Spoiler: Gohei

Also, while U.N. Owen Was Her? is almost certainly the most popular touhou song, it's not as though Reimu herself doesn't have half a dozen themes herself that, imo, would be more fitting. Of them, I see Maiden's Capriccio ~ Dream Battle as the most likely.

I am not really into Touhou games (I only played EoSD and PCB) so I didn't know the existence of the fighting games and the platform game.
As you can see on the FP2 I made, I really wanted Cuphead as a full character and with him there are Shantae and the Knight from Hollow Knight. So I totally understand the importance of Reimu and the Touhou series in the indie games world and it'll be fine to me if Sakurai decides to add her.

Talking about music, I think a more popular song is most likely than a character-related song: U.N. Owen Was Her?, Flowering Night / Night of Nights, Bad Apple!!, or tracks like these!

 

[I.D.]

There's a browser game, too, I think. From what I understand it exists in English, but you have to wade through a bunch of Japanese text to get to it.

Granblue Fantasy is the browser game.

http://game.granbluefantasy.jp/

Literally just choose the English language option.

 

[SNEKeater]

Ah, yes. The Development Hell Trio.

Yeah
I guess I'm very lucky, SMTV, Bayo 3 and Prime 4 were the main reasons I bought the Switch lmao

 

[Sc_Ev0lution]

Talking about music, I think a more popular song is most likely than a character-related song: U.N. Owen Was Her?, Flowering Night / Night of Nights, Bad Apple!!, or tracks like these!

I think going for an uber-popular song makes sense, but also that a character specific one makes more sense. I guess this is an agree to disagree situation?

I always want to put Necrofantasia up there but I never see people talk about it with those other two, so I guess it's a rung down in broad appeal.

 

[merchantofsalt]

The pass is going to be distributed over an 18-month period or so, there's a very good chance that at least one of the characters is promotion for a future game. However I think Sakurai will focus on fan favorites.

So what are your Fighter Pass 2 predictions? My "realistic" ones are:

1. Hayabusa
2. New Pokémon
3. Edutainment or Fitness Game Rep
4. Travis Touchdown
5. New Zelda or Metroid Character
6. Monster Hunter

My "less realistic" choices are:

1. Rhythm Heaven Character
2. Retro Curveball
3. Arle or Second Sonic Character
4. Heihachi or Chosen Undead
5. Crash or Spyro
6. Reimu or Saber

 

[Flyboy]

Lol pic.twitter.com/bQbJxlVFW1

— FalKoopa🌈 (@FalKoopa_) February 5, 2020

Lmao this is gonna spread sooooo much misinfo if Sakurai adds another sword character, Smash fans would look at Soul Calibur and SamSho and assume everyone's a clone

I knew this was going to happen and yet it doesn't make it hurt any less.

God, Nintendo news sites have gotten ****ing horrific.

 

[Dukefire]

Just Asking, which Indie Characters do you think are left in the running as a potential fighter? (exclude fan rules since its doesn't really matter at this point.)

 

[Mushroomguy12]

Taking this into account, this points towards really only one thing going forward: while not impossible, I think this greatly hurts pre-existing first party characters who don’t have a new game coming out soon. This means Dixie Kong and Bandana Waddle Dee.

Bandana Dee and Dixie are def dead picks though sadly

You made these characters sad.
Now you have to watch them crying as punishment.

 

[Will]

You made these characters sad.
Now you have to watch them crying as punishment.

Oh please, no crying is as bad as this monstrosity.

Dixie looks like a ****ing muppet.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Going forward with speculation I think the one trend that stands is the old pillar theory:

It needs to be a ew character than can bring new music, new spirits, and a new stage. After all, pre-E3, a lot of people were predicting a Three Houses Rep or a Pokemon Gen 8 rep. Byleth did not come out of nowhere as much as people recently might be saying they did. Taking this into account, this points towards really only one thing going forward: while not impossible, I think this greatly hurts pre-existing first party characters who don’t have a new game coming out soon. This means Dixie Kong and Bandana Waddle Dee. Other first parties can still get in, so as long as they can pack some new spirits, music, and a new stage into the bundle. I’d say a new Pokemon rep or a Breath of the Wild 2 rep are the most likely on this front. Also Super Mario RPG, but that is only half first- party.

As for other choices?

As much as looking into trends is in fact a pitfall in Smash speculation, let’s look at the first fighters pass for some guidance.

First we have Joker. This to me is the Sakurai wild card character. I know Sakurai keeps stating that Nintendo picked the characters, but this is only half true me thinks. First off, Sakurai does have veto power like many have pointed out including Sakurai himself indirectly. Second, I think Sakurai has more of a voice than he leads on. I’ve noticed Sakurai does not emphasise that Nintendo made the DLC picks every time, just at the beginning and after Banjo and Byleth’s reveals. Not saying Nintendo did not pick Joker, Hero, and Terry, but that perhaps, again, Sakurai has more of a voice in choosing certain characters, and perhaps Sakurai’s influence in Japan’s gaming industry allows him to get certain characters in the game. This is how we got Snake and Sans in after all. Speaking of Snake, other “Sakurai” picks have not been exclusively third-party, but also gave us Kirby as the defacto main character of Smash, the addition of two more Kirby fighters whikevother franchises of the same level got only one (Donkey Kong and Metroid). In Smash 4, we got Palutena and Dark Pit, the latter of which most likely would have not made it in under a different director. So all in all, there are characters where Sakurai as a person, and the aspects of him as the director bring to the character selection. Rather it be subconsciously favoring games he made, or had a blast playing like Petsona 5, or be it the relationships he has in the Japanese gaming community.

In predicting a future character I could look to the middle aspect and choose Steve as Sakurai is a big Minecraft fan. After all Minecraft is a huge deal, and has a strong presence on Nintendo platforms, but I lean on the third aspect the most. This leads me to my first prediction, and that is:

Travis Touchdown

Sakurai has a relationship with the director of No More Heroes, a new game is coming out for the Switch, and it would be interesting to have a meta character in the game. Perhaps his taunts could be tailored to which ever character he is fighting for something new for Sakurai to play with.

If not Travis, I would predict Steve or another game we might not know of that Sakurai has poured hours into playing.

More on am my next pick in my next post.

What about characters who have only appeared in one game in their series, but are likely to have their story directly continue, i.e. their base story ends on a cliffhanger?

In particular, Elma?

 

[merchantofsalt]

Just Asking, which Indie Characters do you think are left in the running as a potential fighter? (exclude fan rules since its doesn't really matter at this point.)

Reimu lol

 

[?????????????]

Just Asking, which Indie Characters do you think are left in the running as a potential fighter? (exclude fan rules since its doesn't really matter at this point.)

None.

Unless you count Steve.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Just Asking, which Indie Characters do you think are left in the running as a potential fighter? (exclude fan rules since its doesn't really matter at this point.)

y'all sleeping on my boi

smh

though tbh ill even be content if he and/or copen become premium mii costumes with a track too - I JUST WANT GUNVOLT CONTENT IN SMASH IS THAT TOO MUCH TO ASK

 

[SpectreJordan]

Smash Bros. is primarily a celebration of Nintendo and Japanese games.

While this may be true as of now, Sakurai said that Smash is a celebration of gaming not just Japanese games.

Over the past year there’s been an increase of Western content in Smash. We got our first truly western character (Banjo), we got Assassin’s Creed & Rabbids as Mii costume & we got the introduction of Premium Mii Costumes that have solely been western characters so far. Even though a Japanese character like Mega Man X would’ve been perfect for a Premium costume.

I think it’s highly likely that we’ll see atleast one western character that doesn’t have direct ties to Nintendo in some way.

Still, I feel like we be missing something if there is no FPS rep at all, but Japan not caring about this type of game does hurt alot. Still, nothing is 100% certain, Sakurai & Nintendo have surprised quit a few times after all.

While that definitely hurts a FPS character’s chances, there’s also the fact that Sakurai’s stated that he’s enjoyed multiple FPS games (Half-Life 2, Halo 2, Fallout). As well Nintendo showing off Overwatch & the Doom game a lot in their marketing of the third party titles available on Switch.

If they want to have a character that makes waves amongst western gamers, then a FPS character would be one of the best picks to do so.

Out of all the games confirmed coming out this year, the only promotional pick I can see is NMH3 or BOTW2.

Is Nintendo providing any funding for NMH3? Not saying that’s the only way that Travis could get in, but if they are funding it then that could help his chances a lot.

My prediction for the pass is two megaton characters (probably E3 reveals), two niche but cool characters & two Nintendo characters that will tie into upcoming games.