Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[Sc_Ev0lution]

With Rex as a spirit and a downloadable mii costume, I doubt he'll be in FP2

 

[Team Scorpion]

I am adding to my "theory"/"Conspiracy" that both The Joker and Byleth get released for their respective games on the same day as well.

 

[slrigeigdew]

On the one hand I do get where everyone is coming from when they say FE is overrepresented in comparison to other first parties. The fact that FE has more unique movesets than LoZ is a freaking crime in of itself.

On the other hand, I do get a sense of Schadenfreude watching PapaGenos and all these Smashtubers reacting to Byleth after spamming my feed with a bazillion videos on Fingerprint theory and random ""leaks"" on anonymous image boards.

idk

 

[kylexv]

Dunno. Based on my observations, it feels like Byleth is more poorly received than even Corrin was. For a moment my mind went back to December 15th, 2015. I personally don't mind Byleth (especially since there's six more characters left), but God social media feels worse after this than it did that fateful day four years ago.

In other news, I started playing Awakening (which is my first FE game) a few days ago. Am I to blame for this?

 

[Ivander]

Since I saw people doing it earlier:
: 6/10 - Cool surprising start and a pretty cool design, but didn't know much about aside from being from Persona and he's my worst in trying to play out of all the DLC characters. His stage is pretty cool though, so bonus points.
: 8/10 - Cool as me and my family have played the Dragon Quest games, I play with him decently and also bonus points for Erdrick, Solo and Especially Eight. Cool stage too.
: 9/10 - Really played their games alot back then, I enjoy playing them and a great trailer. And Spiral Mountain is cool too.
: 7/10 - Knew next to nothing about him, but I really enjoy playing him and his stage is great too, so lots of bonus points for how fun he is to play.
Byleth: 8/10 - Mostly because I am a Fire Emblem fan, but their moveset does look fun to play and I really like how they have a variety of weapons and have access to the Weapon Triangle.

I mean, I really didn't have a problem with any of the characters as I already got my most wanted, being Simon Belmont, so I'm very satisfied with the first Fighter's Pack.

That aside, on a curious note. How many people have you seen making references to the "But I'm a teacher' scene from Persona 5 since Byleth's announcement and because now Joker and Byleth are in the same game?

 

[Hadokeyblade]

I did find it odd we didn't get a Rayman costume. I know he's a spirit and the absence of evidence is not evidence but it seems weird he wasn't revealed. I know he could get revealed as Mii costume later but he's a cult gaming icon in the US & Europe, especially France. Maybe Sakurai will have a Rayman & Reimu reveal lol. Besides he did say that moveset potential and having fun with the character was more important or something along those lines.

Probably the limbs, it would look awkward.

 

[Deleted member]

I can't really picture Doom Slayer getting in either. I just can't for some reason. Call me illogical but I don't think he fits the "Smash aesthetic" which is light-hearted and goofy. You can quote me on it up and down but I don't think Doom Slayer will be in Ultimate. Just my take.

Ngl it'd be pretty funny to see a grown muscular soldier tearing through these cute animal mascots with pure unadulterated high-velocity lead.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

That aside, on a curious note. How many people have you seen making references to the "But I'm a teacher' scene from Persona 5 since Byleth's announcement and because now Joker and Byleth are in the same game?

None, we used up that meme for Edeleth when 3H was new



Also can I just say how nice it is to have a near full moveset shown off before the character actually releases? We have frame data and percentages too and although the footage we saw is 2 months old, it sparks more discussion than "Hey here's the character".

 

[♕Pretty Roger♕]

I am sad about some of the reaction videos about Byleth (PapaGeno's specifically) I do not want to start an argument or be toxic so i edited my post.

P.D:I love you <3
P.D 2:Except if you hate Byleth
P.D 3: Well you can be disappointed, but if you are positive towards others i love you too <3

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

I did find it odd we didn't get a Rayman costume. I know he's a spirit and the absence of evidence is not evidence but it seems weird he wasn't revealed. I know he could get revealed as Mii costume later but he's a cult gaming icon in the US & Europe, especially France. Maybe Sakurai will have a Rayman & Reimu reveal lol. Besides he did say that moveset potential and having fun with the character was more important or something along those lines.

I mean, we're talking about invisible limbs. They'd have to program that in too in order to make it accurate.

It's probably just a case of "too much work for a costume". It's also possible Ubisoft said no or Nintendo didn't actually think about it(nor Sakurai).

 

[staindgrey]

Alright, I'm back from work.

Everybody done *****ing about Byleth yet?

 

[Animegamingnerd]

Dunno. Based on my observations, it feels like Byleth is more poorly received than even Corrin was. For a moment my mind went back to December 15th, 2015 for a moment. I personally don't mind Byleth (especially since there's six more characters left), but God social media feels worse after this than it did that fateful day four years ago.

In other news, I started playing Awakening (which is my first FE game) a few days ago. Am I to blame for this?

Which is a damn shame because Three Houses is the most loved game among Fire Emblem fans, while Fates is the most divisive.

 

[Nesysli]

Honestly with the universal acclaim that Three Houses has received for being one of the best, if not the best FE game, it's not surprising at all that it would be represented in Smash with the main protagonist. Especially based on Smash 4 patterns. Besides it's literally one DLC character slot out of like 10 or 11, Byleth ain't stealing no one's spot.

 

[Cosmic77]

I'm seeing more and more people claim that they think a Pokemon is likely, and that makes me a little more hopeful that the second pass will be more than just, "Which company is getting a third-party in Smash next?"

The only downside is that a majority still think that the Legendaries are deconfirmed and that we're all but guaranteed to receive a starter.

 

[Deleted member]

Alright, I'm back from work.

Everybody done *****ing about Byleth yet?

Wait until the next FE character and then we can move onto trashing them.

 

[RileyXY1]

I'm seeing more and more people claim that they think a Pokemon is likely, and that makes me a little more hopeful that the second pass will be more than just, "Which company is getting a third-party in Smash next?"

The only downside is that a majority still think that the Legendaries are deconfirmed and that we're all but guaranteed to receive a starter.

I think that there will be no DLC Pokemon characters altogether.

 

[Deleted member]

Honestly with the universal acclaim that Three Houses has received for being one of the best, if not the best FE game, it's not surprising at all that it would be represented in Smash with the main protagonist. Especially based on Smash 4 patterns. Besides it's literally one DLC character slot out of like 10 or 11, Byleth ain't stealing no one's spot.

This man gets it.

 

[I.D.]

Wait until the next FE character and then we can move onto trashing them.

You say it as a joke but it will probably happen.

 

[Krankees]

Geno fan's accurate representation:

PapaGeno's reaction to Byleth
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hA-vmIecDDE

(sorry for generalizing, i know a lot of Geno fan's that dealt with this in a possitive manner)

I found alpharad's reaction the funniest.

 

[volbound1700]

Serious question, why doesn't Sakurai and Nintendo announce all 6 characters in the next pass? Would it be healthier for the fanbase instead of all this speculation and conflict?

 

[slrigeigdew]

Dunno. Based on my observations, it feels like Byleth is more poorly received than even Corrin was. For a moment my mind went back to December 15th, 2015 for a moment. I personally don't mind Byleth (especially since there's six more characters left), but God social media feels worse after this than it did that fateful day four years ago.

In other news, I started playing Awakening (which is my first FE game) a few days ago. Am I to blame for this?

Social media tends to do that. If your only exposure to Pokemon was twitter you'd probably assume Sword/Shield are worst selling videogames in human history and not the fast selling Pokemon games in years.

I think that there will be no DLC Pokemon characters altogether.

Bold prediction after today's news.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Serious question, why doesn't Sakurai and Nintendo announce all 6 characters in the next pass? Would it be healthier for the fanbase instead of all this speculation and conflict?

It seems like Sakurai wants to show off more of what they can do while announcing them. Joker was the only one who get practically no knowledge of his moveset, and he wasn't supposed to be shown at VGA either.

 

[Animegamingnerd]

Serious question, why doesn't Sakurai and Nintendo announce all 6 characters in the next pass? Would it be healthier for the fanbase instead of all this speculation and conflict?

Likely to build up hype and anticipation.

 

[ProfPeanut]

This particular thread is actually less salty than I thought it would be. Or who knows, maybe 30 pages dilutes the sodium amount by enough.

Anyway, we've got plenty of lovely takeaways from all this, which I believe will be a net boon in the long run.

1.) We've (probably) deconfirmed Fire Emblem newcomers for the (foreseeable) future.

No, for real this time. There's no Fire Emblem game in the foreseeable future, and Three Houses could potentially last for the rest of the Switch's run. If they announce a new FE game in 2021, then we might have a problem, but I have a good feeling that Fire Emblem, at the very least, had much lower priority in FP2. (Or who knows, maybe Nintendo made the mistake of keeping FE on their lists. But I feel they're satisfied enough.)


2.) First parties are back in business.

I can't believe we've turned this around back to how it used to be. Of course, all our old candidates will have to bring a stage and new music tracks with them. Maybe even a spirit board, if that'll stick around as a requirement. But at least old Bandana Dee and his friends might not have to wait until the next Smash game after all - and for many people, that's hope enough.


3.) We've established once and for all that Smash never ends on a high note.

I knew we'd get an Incineroar-tier pick. Why the secrecy? I can only guess that it was because it was a proper way to handle them. - Joker got the same lockdown, after all, and Hero/Banjo/Terry only got out because of accidents beyond their control. Hopefully, none of the prominent leakers can squeeze the truth out of someone - but two years is a long time, and the salt from Byleth's reveal proved itself predictable.

At any rate, if people refuse to believe that pattern by this point, when Ultimate demonstrated it twice in a row already, then there's not much else we can do for that.


4.) The Smash base remains as emotional as ever, and isn't as significant as it thinks it is

Twitter is, as predicted, a cesspool - people cry foul as if it'll change anything. Nice job downvote-bombing and attacking people who remotely like Byleth's inclusion.

Anyone who's determined to stay in speculation at this point needs to reflect on how the past year went for them. They rallied and cried for their most wanted candidates even when the DLCs had already been decided, and this was the result. Of the five characters, only Banjo came out when people called for him, and even that was simply an illusion of our influence. Banjo was decided in November of 2018, not in early 2019 when people vocally worried about Erdrick.

Six characters, already chosen. What will two years of stress on the internet do to change that? What does one hope to accomplish now? Me, I hope to accomplish things that'll get my life in order, because Smash is going to do just fine without my opinions.


5.) The FIghters Pass' only pattern is a lack of one.

Byleth breaks the third-party rule, and so the gates are open wide to all of gaming again. Try to fit the Fighters Pass into any other rule you can try, and I guarantee that at least one of them will be a weird outlier. FIghters Pass 2 will likely be the same, and all our overthinking may not prepare us for who we get.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

At this point, I'm a little more curious to see how Smash speculation will change in light of this new environment than I am in the six unknown newcomers. What are people going to do now?

 

[MBRedboy31]

I mean, we're talking about invisible limbs. They'd have to program that in too in order to make it accurate.

It's probably just a case of "too much work for a costume". It's also possible Ubisoft said no or Nintendo didn't actually think about it(nor Sakurai).

I’m pretty sure the invisible limbs would save on modeling work, actually. You’d leave the Mii’s skeleton alone, but then just not have any polygons mapped to the arm and leg bones. The hands and feet wouldn’t animate exactly right since they’d still have the restrictions of having “invisible” limbs, but it’d be a decent approximation.

 

[volbound1700]

It seems like Sakurai wants to show off more of what they can do while announcing them. Joker was the only one who get practically no knowledge of his moveset, and he wasn't supposed to be shown at VGA either.

I would still enjoy the trailers. He showed Banjo and Terry prior to their actual presentations. I just think Nintendo is making this very unhealthy and frustrating with how they are going about it.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Serious question, why doesn't Sakurai and Nintendo announce all 6 characters in the next pass? Would it be healthier for the fanbase instead of all this speculation and conflict?

They don't want a healthier speculation enviroment, they want people to keep talking about who they think it is, building excitement up until they finally reveal it. By announcing it beforehand, less people will talk about the DLC when it's available and it risks overshadowing characters a lot. Nintendo's behind the times with this bull**** however as MK fans are still excited for Spawn despite him not even having a clip of gameplay shown yet

 

[Us3inMN]

I'm honestly fine with Byleth, simply because they actually have a unique mechanic. If it was a new FE character and ended up being just like Marth/Roy/etc., then I would be kinda mad. But because Byleth looks like they actually have something unique, I'm actually okay with it.

I think that there will be no DLC Pokemon characters altogether.

Spoiler: HEY YOU

 

[RileyXY1]

Social media tends to do that. If your only exposure to Pokemon was twitter you'd probably assume Sword/Shield are worst selling videogames in human history and not the fast selling Pokemon games in years.


Bold prediction after today's news.

DLC Spirit Events are why I think that there won't be a Sword & Shield Pokemon in Fighter Pass 2

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

I would still enjoy the trailers. He showed Banjo and Terry prior to their actual presentations. I just think Nintendo is making this very unhealthy and frustrating with how they are going about it.

The trailers also show off what "they can do". Joker wasn't given his regular trailer at VGA either. It was a unique one just to build up hype.

I’m pretty sure the invisible limbs would save on modeling work, actually. You’d leave the Mii’s skeleton alone, but then just not have any polygons mapped to the arm and leg bones. The hands and feet wouldn’t animate exactly right since they’d still have the restrictions of having “invisible” limbs, but it’d be a decent approximation.

Well, my bad. It sounded like a lot more work instead.

 

[Cosmic77]

I think that there will be no DLC Pokemon characters altogether.

Before today, a lot of people didn't think we'd get a first-party. In fact, I could go back to Tuesday and pull up several posts where people say that the Astral Chain Spirits confirmed that we were only getting third-parties.

I'm feeling pretty good after today. Even if the next Pokemon isn't Zacian or Zamazenta, there's several options left to choose from. Four Spirits hardly deconfirm every Pokemon, and there's still plenty of content to make a DLC pack out of. They could even add the orginal set of SwSh Spirits to the DLC Spirit Board when the Pokemon character is released, just like how they added the Tockles Spirit to the DQ Spirit Board.

 

[MooMew64]

I wanna apologise for earlier. I don't feel like I was expressing myself super well and as a result came off argumentative.

People can like what they like and dislike what they dislike. Ain't my place to try and change people's minds. However, all I ask is for those who are disappointed to not try and force their opinion either. There's no right or wrong here: It's a subjective opinion about a silly character in a silly video game.

It really is just a video game.

 

[staindgrey]

Dunno. Based on my observations, it feels like Byleth is more poorly received than even Corrin was. For a moment my mind went back to December 15th, 2015. I personally don't mind Byleth (especially since there's six more characters left), but God social media feels worse after this than it did that fateful day four years ago.

IMO, social media has become even more of a dumpster fire in 2020 than it was in 2015. People have zero sense of decorum online anymore. If someone sneezes too loudly they get cancelled.

Also, remember that Smash Ultimate outsold Smash for Wii U in like two days. Way more people care now.

 

[volbound1700]

They don't want a healthier speculation enviroment, they want people to keep talking about who they think it is, building excitement up until they finally reveal it. By announcing it beforehand, less people will talk about the DLC when it's available and it risks overshadowing characters a lot. Nintendo's behind the times with this bull**** however as MK fans are still excited for Spawn despite him not even having a clip of gameplay shown yet

They don't want a healthier speculation enviroment, they want people to keep talking about who they think it is, building excitement up until they finally reveal it. By announcing it beforehand, less people will talk about the DLC when it's available and it risks overshadowing characters a lot. Nintendo's behind the times with this bull**** however as MK fans are still excited for Spawn despite him not even having a clip of gameplay shown yet

It would work if Nintendo made more Banjo announcements. Had the first 5 Fighter Passes been

Geno
Banjo
MasterChief
Waluigi
Crash Bandicoot
Doom Guy
Sora
Shantae

or any combo, people would have loved it. We get all this hype about Masterchief or Crash in Smash and then garbage picks, anger at leakers, etc. Just go ahead and drop the bomb I say.

 

[RileyXY1]

Before today, a lot of people didn't think we'd get a first-party. In fact, I could go back to Tuesday and pull up several posts where people say that the Astral Chain Spirits confirmed that we were only getting third-parties.

I'm feeling pretty good after today. Even if the next Pokemon isn't Zacian or Zamazenta, there's still plenty of options left to choose from. Four Spirits hardly deconfirm every Pokemon, and there's still plenty of content left to make a DLC pack out of. They could even add the orginal set of SwSh Spirits to the DLC Spirit Board when the Pokemon character is released, just like how they added the Tockles Spirit to the DQ Spirit Board.

As shown with Three Houses, if there was going to be a Sword & Shield Pokemon getting in they would not have even done a Sword & Shield Spirit Event in the first place and instead they would have released the Spirits with the fighter.

 

[Captain Shwampy]

Unironically wish they'd just show the silhouettes(like SFV) of the first 3 characters in the 2nd pass this year and the next 3 next year

Dont really care much about the surprise factor anymore especially if its mostly going to either be "Who?" or just negativity.

 

[Animegamingnerd]

This is a theory I got to explain why its gonna take 2 years for FP2 to be completed.
I think both the team and budget for fighters pass 2 is smaller then it was for FP1, despite having an additional character. I think for this reason is why I am betting that at least 3 of FP2's characters are gonna first party characters. As they are much cheaper to get a hold then any third party characters due to Nintendo already owning them and not having to worry licensing fees and royalties.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

I’m pretty sure the invisible limbs would save on modeling work, actually. You’d leave the Mii’s skeleton alone, but then just not have any polygons mapped to the arm and leg bones. The hands and feet wouldn’t animate exactly right since they’d still have the restrictions of having “invisible” limbs, but it’d be a decent approximation.

There's an issue with this, Smash LOVES visualizing hitboxes, as seen with Byleth's fsmash, the pointy end of the lance is glowing orange with the tip showing a white flash, it communicates to the players that this part of the lance is special, and what do you know, it'll do more damage and knockback if you hit with it. By making the limbs invisible, you lose that visual communication. Another issue is visual feedback, when you land a powerful hit, you want that hit to look like it hurt, by removing limbs, the attacks seemingly lose torque and suddenly feel awkward, this is why the Rayman games have Rayman's hands spin around before you send them flying to say "Oooooh this one's gonna hurt... Blammo!"

 

[volbound1700]

Hey, I would take Byleth or any FE/Pokemon pick over the emo trash that was Joker any day of the week. Joker got better representations than even the ****ING SONIC THE HEDGEHOG series which is 5x popular. Sakurai could have at least fixed the debauchery that was the Tails costume.

This is a theory I got to explain why its gonna take 2 years for FP2 to be completed.
I think both the team and budget for fighters pass 2 is smaller then it was for FP1, despite having an additional character. I think for this reason is why I am betting that at least 3 of FP2's characters are gonna first party characters. As they are much cheaper to get a hold then any third party characters due to Nintendo already owning them and not having to worry licensing fees and royalties.

I think this is a good theory.

 

[3BitSaurus]

I just realized something. Byleth will mark version 7.0.0, so with 6 more... wow, up to 13.0.0? That's... an interesting number to end on.