Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[Garteam]

You know who would be an amazing Smash character but will probably never get in?

Dr. Ivo "Eggman" Robotnik.

 

[StarBot]

>Diversity

This thread is making fun of the diversity agrument,

But will quickly use it for there female want / flavor of the month

 

[Deleted member]

This thread is making fun of the diversity agrument,

But will quickly use it for there female want / flavor of the month

It's usually not the same people but okay.

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

This thread is making fun of the diversity agrument,

But will quickly use it for there female want / flavor of the month

If you take a look at my argumentative essays I've never claimed that representation boosts a character's chances. I just don't believe that Sakurai and co. looked at characters and thought about including them specifically to appeal to certain groups when there are other seemingly more important reasons (appeal to regional demographics, corporate synergy, improving corporate relations, general popularity, transition to gameplay, etc.) for a character's inclusion.

 

[StarBot]

Also I thought Corrin and Bayonetta was bisexual

 

[Dee Dude]

When I meant viable options, I wasn’t talking about just fan-requests.

I meant literally EVERY single video game character that was qualified for Smash regardless if they’re expected or surprising, it’s like at this point if you go by the “deconfirm” list someone like Bubsy or Qbert would be 5.

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

When I meant viable options, I wasn’t talking about just fan-requests.

I meant literally EVERY single video game character that was qualified for Smash regardless if they’re expected or surprising, it’s like at this point if you go by the “deconfirm” list someone like Bubsy or Qbert would be 5.

how many times do i have to tell u all its BUCK MOTHER****ING BUMBLE

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Also I thought Corrin and Bayonetta was bisexual

I mean, diversity doesn't mean 4 out of 80 characters is plenty. Ever notice how there's significantly more non humanoid blobs than say, darkskinned characters in Smash? Ganon's the only one in the 20 years of Smash Bros

 

[KneeOfJustice99]

Also I thought Corrin and Bayonetta was bisexual

Bayonetta is. It was confirmed in Bayonetta 2, if I remember rightly.

 

[SKX31]

Terry proves that they don't really care about ownership sense SNK is currently owned by a Chinese company.

If I may be nitpicky: SNK's ownership is a joint venture between three companies: Two Chinese (Oriental Securities: the biggest holder of the three and likely prime financier because it's an investment bank, as well as 37 Games (Shunrong Sanqi): mobile game publisher and developer of some SNK mobile titles) and one Hong Kong (LeYou Technologies: SNK's organizational overseers through Leyou's subsidiary). Orient and 37 invested in a LeYou subsidiary who then bought out SNK. SNK and co. appear to be safe at the moment in case you're wondering about, you know, that.

Point still stands though.

You know who would be an amazing Smash character but will probably never get in?

Dr. Ivo "Eggman" Robotnik.

Eggman is one of those characters I would insta buy no matter which VA we're talking about: Long John Baldry (RIP), Deem Bristow (RIP), or Mike Pollock. Or Jim Carrey I'll take him too.

 

[Deleted member]

Eggman is one of those characters I would insta buy no matter which VA we're talking about: Long John Baldry (RIP), Deem Bristow (RIP), or Mike Pollock. Or Jim Carrey I'll take him too.

God, I would pay a lot of money just to have Jim Carrey voicing any character in Smash.

 

[Deleted member]

If I may be nitpicky: SNK's ownership is a joint venture between three companies: Two Chinese (Oriental Securities: the biggest holder of the three and likely prime financier because it's an investment bank, as well as 37 Games (Shunrong Sanqi): mobile game publisher and developer of some SNK mobile titles) and one Hong Kong (LeYou Technologies: SNK's organizational overseers through Leyou's subsidiary). Orient and 37 invested in a LeYou subsidiary who then bought out SNK. SNK and co. appear to be safe at the moment in case you're wondering about, you know, that.

Fascinating. I think the convoluted ownership of Dragon Quest has made me far more interested in this kind of stuff, so this is all cool to know.

 

[Garteam]

Also I thought Corrin and Bayonetta was bisexual

Can't speak to Bayonetta, but Corrin is canonically bisexual, being able to S-Support (marry) Fates other bisexual characters when the same gender (Niles and Rhajat).

Byleth and Edelgard are also canonically bisexual. Although, Edelgard will only take Byleth as a wife.

 

[EricTheGamerman]

After Vergeben backtracked on his extended deconfirmations the list really isn't that long, and it could be even smaller depending on how much stock you put into Vergeben's claims these days. Like, there have been minor rumblings of Dovahkiin, and while those rumors aren't worth taking seriously atm, it's just an example of a big character that still qualifies even when you take the leakers' words into account.

It's also worth noting that every character in the Fighters Pass have been surprising in their own way. Joker for being from a new Sony exclusive, Hero because of Dragon Quest's convoluted rights, Banjo because he's from a dead western IP owned by a competitor, and Terry because he's fairly niche and was rarely ever discussed in the context of Smash. Reggie wasn't kidding when he said that the rest of the Pass would be in the same vein as Joker, and looking back at it now I think it's pretty clear that #5 was never going to be one of the speculation community's perceived frontrunners, because that hasn't been the case with the rest of the Pass either, at least not until they were leaked.

I mean, a lot has changed since Reggie said that for the speculation community to the point where the community has actively started seeking out more specific characters we might have a blind spot for. It might have been relevant at the time when Reggie said that as people were just expecting more first party "promotional characters" and such, but we as a community have begun to actively seek out frontrunners from across a significantly wider spectrum than we did even at Terry's announcement specifically. There's a much better chance that we've stumbled upon FP#5 in our efforts to identify a potential candidate because of the past couple months of speculation.

I mean, we have people pulling Saber from Fate, Carmen Sandiego, Arle Nadja, Master Chief, Kratos even, etc. Lots of characters have come into frame that were previously not very considered at all or laughed off specifically because of how things have gone. And at certain point, surprises won't really be a thing in the conventional sense because we'll have considered basically everyone lol.

Yeah, I don’t buy it. She was deconfirmed for FP5 by I think one of Verge or Sabi’s sources, plus Blizzard doesn’t exactly have the best reputation right now. Plus, didn’t the OW Switch port flop?

Nintendo gave zero ****s about the Blizzard controversy, they just canceled one event and let the storm blow over and Overwatch has been proudly displayed on Nintendo's eShop for months and they've even had big Overwatch displays in places like GameStop for the Switch version. Also, Overwatch Switch flopping isn't something I've really ever heard. The game was on the best sellers list for Switch Bundles on the eShop for a while, it's just the main Best Selling list on Switch's eShop doesn't include any "bundles" of content and Overwatch technically qualifies as that.

Which is to say, the Switch eShop is a confusing, un-intuitive mess of a store front that communicates information to customers very poorly.

 

[Will]

Although, Edelgard will only take Byleth as a wife.

oh you wouldn't **** god if you had the chance?

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Can't speak to Bayonetta, but Corrin is canonically bisexual, being able to S-Support (marry) Fates other bisexual characters when the same gender (Niles and Rhajat).

Byleth and Edelgard are also canonically bisexual. Although, Edelgard will only take Byleth as a wife.

There's also the scene in when Byleth goes Super Saiyan, Dimitri acts all dramatically romantic when it's female Byleth but is significantly less so when it's male Byleth, Edelgard's versions of that scene heavuly suggest her sexual preference is for other women as bisexuality isn't 50/50

 

[Deleted member]

I legit didn’t know Carmen Sandiego was a videogame character up until today.

Always thought she was created for TV.

 

[Deleted member]

This thread is making fun of the diversity agrument,

But will quickly use it for there female want / flavor of the month

Im pretty sure they don’t care about “diversity” when adding characters, unless it’s about how they play or what game they are from.

 

[TheAJJohnson]

I mean, diversity doesn't mean 4 out of 80 characters is plenty. Ever notice how there's significantly more non humanoid blobs than say, darkskinned characters in Smash? Ganon's the only one in the 20 years of Smash Bros

It is plenty because Sakurai and Co. aren't counting! I guarantee they don't care to pander, especially to what are mostly western ideologies. And thank goodness! Who cares what colors, race, gender, religion, etc. characters are. Do they have a cool moveset? Have they had an impact on the gaming industry? Would they be an interesting addition? Do fans want then? That's why a plant, a mutant cat, and pink blobs are playable. Pandering to political ideologies would be far worse than catering to only the Smash fan base.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

It is plenty because Sakurai and Co. aren't counting! I guarantee they don't care to pander, especially to what are mostly western ideologies. And thank goodness! Who cares what colors, race, gender, religion, etc. characters are. Do they have a cool moveset? Have they had an impact on the gaming industry? Would they be an interesting addition? Do fans want then? That's why a plant, a mutant cat, and pink blobs are playable. Pandering to political ideologies would be far worse than catering to only the Smash fan base.

I love it when people say this as it implies any nonwhite characters inherently have no value because of their skin instead of it being a neat little addition. This is like saying Sol Badguy would be bad because he's Indian and ignoring how he'd introduce new mechanics like a proper Install and Air Dashing

 

[Deleted member]

Correct me if I’m wrong but dose verges source have a source that knows #5?

 

[Garteam]

oh you wouldn't **** god if you had the chance?

Depends if God expects me to meet his parents afterwards.

Spoiler

Granted, not really an issue for Byleth

There's also the scene in when Byleth goes Super Saiyan, Dimitri acts all dramatically romantic when it's female Byleth but is significantly less so when it's male Byleth, Edelgard's versions of that scene heavuly suggest her sexual preference is for other women as bisexuality isn't 50/50

Admittedly, I haven't gotten to that point in the story in my Crimson Flower run, so I can't comment. That being said, there is no doubt that Edelgard holds at least some romantic attraction towards female Byleth.

 

[EricTheGamerman]

It is plenty because Sakurai and Co. aren't counting! I guarantee they don't care to pander, especially to what are mostly western ideologies. And thank goodness! Who cares what colors, race, gender, religion, etc. characters are. Do they have a cool moveset? Have they had an impact on the gaming industry? Would they be an interesting addition? Do fans want then? That's why a plant, a mutant cat, and pink blobs are playable. Pandering to political ideologies would be far worse than catering to only the Smash fan base.

I mean, you can be diverse and include important video game characters with fun movesets. I know Lara Croft may not be the most traditional example of "fun" people think of, but she's also the literal first woman of video games and could be made fun in all sorts of ways. Chun-Li is the first woman of fighting games, Nakoruru is as important to Samurai Showdown as Haohmaru at this point and has appeared in KOF, 2B is a recent female icon thanks to Nier Automata's mainstream success, etc.

It's totally fair for people to ask for more diverse characters that also cover all sorts of great video games and statuses. It's possible for diversity to be a relevant factor without being somehow the only factor.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Correct me if I’m wrong but dose verges source have a source that knows #5?

Verge has said nothing concrete.


Also it's pretty telling people keep clamouring for more diversity for movesets and franchises but when actual real life social groups are involved it's magically awful for some reason. Wonder why

 

[Garteam]

All this talk on representation just shows we need Shiori Fujisaki.

 

[CureParfait]

Correct me if I’m wrong but dose verges source have a source that knows #5?

I don't think he does have a source who knows who #5 is.

 

[Ramen Tengoku]

It is plenty because Sakurai and Co. aren't counting! I guarantee they don't care to pander, especially to what are mostly western ideologies. And thank goodness! Who cares what colors, race, gender, religion, etc. characters are. Do they have a cool moveset? Have they had an impact on the gaming industry? Would they be an interesting addition? Do fans want then? That's why a plant, a mutant cat, and pink blobs are playable. Pandering to political ideologies would be far worse than catering to only the Smash fan base.

So wanting a character solely because you enjoyed their game is completely acceptable, right?

That's a form of resonating. You grew an attachment to that character because you enjoyed their game

In a similar fashion some people might resonate with a character due to their gender, race, sexuality, etc.

Why is one considered perfectly fine and the other is completely taboo when both derive from pretty much the same motive?

 

[Deleted member]

I don't think he does have a source who knows who #5 is.

So why give kos-mos a not sure while no namco?

 

[Cutie Gwen]

So why give kos-mos a not sure while no namco?

Kosmos's rights are a tad tricky as Namco, Nintendo and apparantly SE are involved? I know Nintendo's is specifiaslly for the XB2 design

 

[epicmartin7]

Hey ya'll, just want to come by and say I did some interesting stuffs. Now, the process I'm going to describe is not accurate, and will never be on point. This is simply an approximation using very basic statistics. So don't take this as gospel. A lot of the stuff I did might seem off the wall, but I had a blast doing it.

I should mention this is also a basic TL;DR version. If you want a more descriptive reasoning, I'll include one in a spoiler tab below.

So Amiibo Theory has been gaining some traction recently, so I decided to push it to it's limits. I collected data for Amiibo dates and Smash DLC release dates, graphed them, and found a mathematical formula that best suited the data using Desmos, an online graphing tool. Not only did I do this for North America, I also did this for Europe and Japan as well. I then averaged ALL the data together and ended up with four equations.

I plugged in the Amiibo date for Dark Samus and Richter, and here's what I got:

• North America: January 9th
• Europe: January 11th
• Japan: January 17th
• Average: January 13th

Amiibo Theory seems to be trending towards an early January release. Which is interesting.

So yeah, I did a lot of math for this one. Again, this is simply an approximation and NOT precise at all. It fails to account for other variables. But, it provides a good conversation piece I think.

If you want this post, but in greater detail, you can click this spoiler to see it.

Spoiler: Process in Detail

So before I get into the meat of this, I want to mention that everything you're going to see in this post is not accurate 100%. The things covered do not account for all variables.

Everything here are approximations and should be treated as such. While we can look at some variables, we can't track them all due to the unpredictability of life. So keep that in mind when reading this.

And even if the process I'm about to mention is arguably hysterical and overzealous for a game like Smash, I did have a lot of fun doing this. So I thought I would share on how it was done and what we can take away from this.

To start... some background. Of course, the Fighters Pass is almost complete, with one fighter left to be revealed. And, due to that, a lot are wondering about the release date of that character.

Well... after thinking about it for awhile, and thinking about tools I could potentially use to help get some sort of info without rumors, I turned to the one that's been pretty accurate so far. And that's Amiibo Theory.

In short, the theory explains that the amiibo release dates are tied with fighter releases as they release close to each other. And ever since Piranha Plant's release, it's had a decent track record.

So I decided to test the limits of the theory using... mathematics.

What I decided to do was record the release dates for all DLC fighters and Amiibo releases as a basis (of course.) However, I decided, instead of just focusing on North America, I also collected data from Europe and Japan as well. As, unsurprisingly, there are variations in the dates.

So after that was recorded, I had to arguably do the hardest part, make the dates universal under one scale. For convenience, I used January 1st, 2019 as one while December 31st, 2018 was zero. And from there, everything was basically in the terms of January of 2019.

As an example if I needed to record February 3rd, 2019; I'd record it as January 34th, 2019 instead. I know that sounds weird, but it got those dates in a uniform scale.

So once I converted all those dates, I plotted the data using Desmos, a widely popular online graphing tool. For the input data (x), I used the converted amiibo dates, and for the output (y) was the converted dlc release dates.

From there, I used the technique known as linear regression, which finds the math function that closely suites the data. And that function was just a simple y=mx+b equation.

Well, using that amiibo date for Dark Samus and Richter (January 17th), I plugged into the function.

Well... four functions actually. Yeah, I said there was variations in the data. And because of that, I regressed equations for each of the data sets. Even though there were three regions, I ended up with four because the 4th one was all the data sets averaged together.

So after I plugged the date into all four functions, what did I get? Well, I ended with these dates for each data set. (linked are graphs to each of the functions for those interested.)

• North America: January 9th
• Europe: January 11th
• Japan: January 17th
• Average: January 13th

It seems like Amiibo Theory is trending towards an early-ish January release. Which, reasonably, would make sense as a Direct is speculated for this time. And you could have a shadow drop of sorts, maybe.

So basically, there was a lot of math involved in this. It sounds so dumb to do this much, but I honestly had blast going through all of that data.
But again, it is important to recognize that these dates are approximations and in retrospect probably don't mean much. But it at least is something to keep an eye on as Nintendo is ready to move into the rest of the year.

If anyone is interested in the data itself, let me know and I can release it in a doc as soon as possible.

 

[Deleted member]

Kosmos's rights are a tad tricky as Namco, Nintendo and apparantly SE are involved?l

That’s xenogears

highly doubt that’s ever getting in

 

[CureParfait]

So why give kos-mos a not sure while no namco?

I don't think that necessarily means that Verge has a source who actually knows who DLC 5 is. Since there is a possibility Kos-mos isn't even DLC 5.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

That’s xenogears

highly doubt that’s ever getting in

What franchise is KOSMOS from Connor?

 

[Deleted member]

Hey ya'll, just want to come by and say I did some interesting stuffs. Now, the process I'm going to describe is not accurate, and will never be on point. This is simply an approximation using very basic statistics. So don't take this as gospel. A lot of the stuff I did might seem off the wall, but I had a blast doing it.

I should mention this is also a basic TL;DR version. If you want a more descriptive reasoning, I'll include one in a spoiler tab below.

So Amiibo Theory has been gaining some traction recently, so I decided to push it to it's limits. I collected data for Amiibo dates and Smash DLC release dates, graphed them, and found a mathematical formula that best suited the data using Desmos, an online graphing tool. Not only did I do this for North America, I also did this for Europe and Japan as well. I then averaged ALL the data together and ended up with four equations.

I plugged in the Amiibo date for Dark Samus and Richter, and here's what I got:

• North America: January 9th
• Europe: January 11th
• Japan: January 17th
• Average: January 13th

Amiibo Theory seems to be trending towards an early January release. Which is interesting.

I also ran statistics for character reveals vs. releases. However, this data barely has any legs to stand on compared to Amiibo theory, so this data is a lot more meaningless. But, I did it anyway, and here it is.

Spoiler: Character Reveal vs. Release

• North America: February 21st
• Europe: February 22nd
• Japan: February 21st
• Average: February 21st

Weridly, it's trending towards the same day in late February. So at least it shows some cohesion there.

And finally, I decided to average the dates from amiibo/release with the reveal/release dates just for the heck of it. This one still doesn't have a lot of legs to stand on compared to the amiibo data alone, but still provides some neat foresight.

Spoiler: Average of Amiibo/Release and Reveal/Release

• North America: January 31st
• Europe: February 1st
• Japan: February 3rd
• Average: February 1st

This one seems a bit more middle of the road with it trending towards Late January, early February.

So yeah, I did a lot of math for this one. Again, this is simply an approximation and NOT precise at all. It fails to account for other variables. But, it provides a good conversation piece I think.

If you want this post, but in greater detail, you can click this spoiler to see it.

Spoiler: Process in Detail

So before I get into the meat of this, I want to mention that everything you're going to see in this post is not accurate 100%. The things covered do not account for all variables.

Everything here are approximations and should be treated as such. While we can look at some variables, we can't track them all due to the unpredictability of life. So keep that in mind when reading this.

And even if the process I'm about to mention is arguably hysterical and overzealous for a game like Smash, I did have a lot of fun doing this. So I thought I would share on how it was done and what we can take away from this.

To start... some background. Of course, the Fighters Pass is almost complete, with one fighter left to be revealed. And, due to that, a lot are wondering about the release date of that character.

Well... after thinking about it for awhile, and thinking about tools I could potentially use to help get some sort of info without rumors, I turned to the one that's been pretty accurate so far. And that's Amiibo Theory.

In short, the theory explains that the amiibo release dates are tied with fighter releases as they release close to each other. And ever since Piranha Plant's release, it's had a decent track record.

So I decided to test the limits of the theory using... mathematics.

What I decided to do was record the release dates for all DLC fighters and Amiibo releases as a basis (of course.) However, I decided, instead of just focusing on North America, I also collected data from Europe and Japan as well. As, unsurprisingly, there are variations in the dates.

So after that was recorded, I had to arguably do the hardest part, make the dates universal under one scale. For convenience, I used January 1st, 2019 as one while December 31st, 2018 was zero. And from there, everything was basically in the terms of January of 2019.

As an example if I needed to record February 3rd, 2019; I'd record it as January 34th, 2019 instead. I know that sounds weird, but it got those dates in a uniform scale.

So once I converted all those dates, I plotted the data using Desmos, a widely popular online graphing tool. For the input data (x), I used the converted amiibo dates, and for the output (y) was the converted dlc release dates.

From there, I used the technique known as linear regression, which finds the math function that closely suites the data. And that function was just a simple y=mx+b equation.

Well, using that amiibo date for Dark Samus and Richter (January 17th), I plugged into the function.

Well... four functions actually. Yeah, I said there was variations in the data. And because of that, I regressed equations for each of the data sets. Even though there were three regions, I ended up with four because the 4th one was all the data sets averaged together.

So after I plugged the date into all four functions, what did I get? Well, I ended with these dates for each data set. (linked are graphs to each of the functions for those interested.)

• North America: January 9th
• Europe: January 11th
• Japan: January 17th
• Average: January 13th

It seems like Amiibo Theory is trending towards an early-ish January release. Which, reasonably, would make sense as a Direct is speculated for this time. And you could have a shadow drop of sorts, maybe.

Well, after all of this, I kind of got in the mood for more statistical stuff. So I decided to compare release dates with reveal dates (instead of the Amiibo dates like done previously.)

Now, I do want to mention that the comparison of reveal dates with release dates is not as strong of a foundation as the amiibo comparison is. This means, in terms of the data, they're a bit more scattered than close together.

Still, I went on to regress the data into a linear function. I also looked at data for North America, Europe, and Japan. Along with taking the average of all of them.

Even though this data has less structure... it's still really interesting. All of the dates *were basically similar to each other in being a conservative date (near the February 2020 deadline basically.)

• North America: February 21st
• Europe: February 22nd
• Japan: February 21st
• Average: February 21st

Now, at this point, I collected most of the data that could be used. However, I had one more trick up my sleeve. I decided to also average each comparison's output together. (Basically just average the dates I got from the amiibo/release comparison with the ones I got from the reveal/release comparison.)
And here's the dates I got (no graphs for this one sadly):

• North America: January 31st
• Europe: February 1st
• Japan: February 3rd
• Average: February 1st

So basically, there was a lot of math involved in this. It sounds so dumb to do this much, but I honestly had blast going through all of that data.
But again, it is important to recognize that these dates are approximations and in retrospect probably don't mean much. But it at least is something to keep an eye on as Nintendo is ready to move into the rest of the year.

If anyone is interested in the data itself, let me know and I can release it in a doc as soon as possible.

I am too tempted to make a Stryder7x or TJ Henry Yoshi joke after reading the whole thing.

But I won’t.

 

[EricTheGamerman]

So wanting a character solely because you enjoyed their game is completely acceptable, right?

That's a form of resonating. You grew an attachment to that character because you enjoyed their game

In a similar fashion some people might resonate with a character due to their gender, race, sexuality, etc.

Why is one considered perfectly fine and the other is completely taboo when both derive from pretty much the same motive?

Because some of the people who dislike the thought of resonating with a character over "unrelated identity politics" can't just leave it at their own personal dislike of the concept and want to relentlessly criticize people who do as "shallow" and consider it "not a real reason to like a character."

God forbid someone relate to a strong character who may share cultural traits or background with them, but yeah, "X" looks awesome or "Y video game was important to my personal background" so that's totally legitimate in a way yours isn't.

It's the most frustrating thing when this conversation about "representation and diversity" comes up.

 

[Garteam]

Hey ya'll, just want to come by and say I did some interesting stuffs. Now, the process I'm going to describe is not accurate, and will never be on point. This is simply an approximation using very basic statistics. So don't take this as gospel. A lot of the stuff I did might seem off the wall, but I had a blast doing it.

I should mention this is also a basic TL;DR version. If you want a more descriptive reasoning, I'll include one in a spoiler tab below.

So Amiibo Theory has been gaining some traction recently, so I decided to push it to it's limits. I collected data for Amiibo dates and Smash DLC release dates, graphed them, and found a mathematical formula that best suited the data using Desmos, an online graphing tool. Not only did I do this for North America, I also did this for Europe and Japan as well. I then averaged ALL the data together and ended up with four equations.

I plugged in the Amiibo date for Dark Samus and Richter, and here's what I got:

• North America: January 9th
• Europe: January 11th
• Japan: January 17th
• Average: January 13th

Amiibo Theory seems to be trending towards an early January release. Which is interesting.

I also ran statistics for character reveals vs. releases. However, this data barely has any legs to stand on compared to Amiibo theory, so this data is a lot more meaningless. But, I did it anyway, and here it is.

Spoiler: Character Reveal vs. Release

• North America: February 21st
• Europe: February 22nd
• Japan: February 21st
• Average: February 21st

Weridly, it's trending towards the same day in late February. So at least it shows some cohesion there.

And finally, I decided to average the dates from amiibo/release with the reveal/release dates just for the heck of it. This one still doesn't have a lot of legs to stand on compared to the amiibo data alone, but still provides some neat foresight.

Spoiler: Average of Amiibo/Release and Reveal/Release

• North America: January 31st
• Europe: February 1st
• Japan: February 3rd
• Average: February 1st

This one seems a bit more middle of the road with it trending towards Late January, early February.

So yeah, I did a lot of math for this one. Again, this is simply an approximation and NOT precise at all. It fails to account for other variables. But, it provides a good conversation piece I think.

If you want this post, but in greater detail, you can click this spoiler to see it.

Spoiler: Process in Detail

So before I get into the meat of this, I want to mention that everything you're going to see in this post is not accurate 100%. The things covered do not account for all variables.

Everything here are approximations and should be treated as such. While we can look at some variables, we can't track them all due to the unpredictability of life. So keep that in mind when reading this.

And even if the process I'm about to mention is arguably hysterical and overzealous for a game like Smash, I did have a lot of fun doing this. So I thought I would share on how it was done and what we can take away from this.

To start... some background. Of course, the Fighters Pass is almost complete, with one fighter left to be revealed. And, due to that, a lot are wondering about the release date of that character.

Well... after thinking about it for awhile, and thinking about tools I could potentially use to help get some sort of info without rumors, I turned to the one that's been pretty accurate so far. And that's Amiibo Theory.

In short, the theory explains that the amiibo release dates are tied with fighter releases as they release close to each other. And ever since Piranha Plant's release, it's had a decent track record.

So I decided to test the limits of the theory using... mathematics.

What I decided to do was record the release dates for all DLC fighters and Amiibo releases as a basis (of course.) However, I decided, instead of just focusing on North America, I also collected data from Europe and Japan as well. As, unsurprisingly, there are variations in the dates.

So after that was recorded, I had to arguably do the hardest part, make the dates universal under one scale. For convenience, I used January 1st, 2019 as one while December 31st, 2018 was zero. And from there, everything was basically in the terms of January of 2019.

As an example if I needed to record February 3rd, 2019; I'd record it as January 34th, 2019 instead. I know that sounds weird, but it got those dates in a uniform scale.

So once I converted all those dates, I plotted the data using Desmos, a widely popular online graphing tool. For the input data (x), I used the converted amiibo dates, and for the output (y) was the converted dlc release dates.

From there, I used the technique known as linear regression, which finds the math function that closely suites the data. And that function was just a simple y=mx+b equation.

Well, using that amiibo date for Dark Samus and Richter (January 17th), I plugged into the function.

Well... four functions actually. Yeah, I said there was variations in the data. And because of that, I regressed equations for each of the data sets. Even though there were three regions, I ended up with four because the 4th one was all the data sets averaged together.

So after I plugged the date into all four functions, what did I get? Well, I ended with these dates for each data set. (linked are graphs to each of the functions for those interested.)

• North America: January 9th
• Europe: January 11th
• Japan: January 17th
• Average: January 13th

It seems like Amiibo Theory is trending towards an early-ish January release. Which, reasonably, would make sense as a Direct is speculated for this time. And you could have a shadow drop of sorts, maybe.

Well, after all of this, I kind of got in the mood for more statistical stuff. So I decided to compare release dates with reveal dates (instead of the Amiibo dates like done previously.)

Now, I do want to mention that the comparison of reveal dates with release dates is not as strong of a foundation as the amiibo comparison is. This means, in terms of the data, they're a bit more scattered than close together.

Still, I went on to regress the data into a linear function. I also looked at data for North America, Europe, and Japan. Along with taking the average of all of them.

Even though this data has less structure... it's still really interesting. All of the dates *were basically similar to each other in being a conservative date (near the February 2020 deadline basically.)

• North America: February 21st
• Europe: February 22nd
• Japan: February 21st
• Average: February 21st

Now, at this point, I collected most of the data that could be used. However, I had one more trick up my sleeve. I decided to also average each comparison's output together. (Basically just average the dates I got from the amiibo/release comparison with the ones I got from the reveal/release comparison.)
And here's the dates I got (no graphs for this one sadly):

• North America: January 31st
• Europe: February 1st
• Japan: February 3rd
• Average: February 1st

So basically, there was a lot of math involved in this. It sounds so dumb to do this much, but I honestly had blast going through all of that data.
But again, it is important to recognize that these dates are approximations and in retrospect probably don't mean much. But it at least is something to keep an eye on as Nintendo is ready to move into the rest of the year.

If anyone is interested in the data itself, let me know and I can release it in a doc as soon as possible.

You are unironically doing God's work.

 

[Deleted member]

What franchise is KOSMOS from Connor?

You put square enix on there

xenogears has nothing to do with kos

 

[TheAJJohnson]

I love it when people say this as it implies any nonwhite characters inherently have no value because of their skin instead of it being a neat little addition. This is like saying Sol Badguy would be bad because he's Indian and ignoring how he'd introduce new mechanics like a proper Install and Air Dashing

This is a strawman. Nowhere did I imply that characters that are considered "diverse" don't have value. But just to ensure there I am clear: adding a character primarily to fulfill an arbitrary diversity requirement is silly. If a character meets other more relevant criteria - like those I mentioned previously, such as moveset potential, something that would be present with someone like Sol Badguy - and they happen to have different color skin or something, then I am all for those additions! Again using Sol as an example, if his air dashing and his other mechanics are so cool, than wouldn't it make sense to lead with this rather than his race? What bothers me is when people mainly advocate for a character based off of very narrow, highly politicized, western ideologies and then when you call them out, they shift by saying that there are other redeeming qualities. You'll never see me advocate for Lara Croft mainly because "we need more women", but I'll do it because of everything else she is, including being a bad A.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

You put square enix on there

xenogears has nothing to do with kos

Lmao I feel like a right dumbass now. I suppose me confusing the two is kind of why anyone would be confused lol

 

[Deleted member]

Oh no is it time for more "does the Xeno series exist" debates?

the answer is no