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Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

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Cutie Gwen

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This is a strawman. Nowhere did I imply that characters that are considered "diverse" don't have value. But just to ensure there I am clear: adding a character primarily to fulfill an arbitrary diversity requirement is silly. If a character meets other more relevant criteria - like those I mentioned previously, such as moveset potential, something that would be present with someone like Sol Badguy - and they happen to have different color skin or something, then I am all for those additions! Again using Sol as an example, if his air dashing and his other mechanics are so cool, than wouldn't it make sense to lead with this rather than his race? What bothers me is when people mainly advocate for a character based off of very narrow, highly politicized, western ideologies and then when you call them out, they shift by saying that there are other redeeming qualities. You'll never see me advocate for Lara Croft mainly because "we need more women", but I'll do it because of everything else she is, including being a bad A.
It's a plus point though. Not the main deal. Also you say 'western' as if Japan hasn't been talking about diversity a lot as long as the west have lmao
 
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Lmao I feel like a right dumbass now. I suppose me confusing the two is kind of why anyone would be confused lol
And while I’m not 100% sure on it, it seems that Kos-Mos is from Xenosaga rather than Xenogears.

Doh maybe I could be wrong since I only did a quick Google search.
 

3BitSaurus

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Hey ya'll, just want to come by and say I did some interesting stuffs. Now, the process I'm going to describe is not accurate, and will never be on point. This is simply an approximation using very basic statistics. So don't take this as gospel. A lot of the stuff I did might seem off the wall, but I had a blast doing it.

I should mention this is also a basic TL;DR version. If you want a more descriptive reasoning, I'll include one in a spoiler tab below.

So Amiibo Theory has been gaining some traction recently, so I decided to push it to it's limits. I collected data for Amiibo dates and Smash DLC release dates, graphed them, and found a mathematical formula that best suited the data using Desmos, an online graphing tool. Not only did I do this for North America, I also did this for Europe and Japan as well. I then averaged ALL the data together and ended up with four equations.

I plugged in the Amiibo date for Dark Samus and Richter, and here's what I got:

Amiibo Theory seems to be trending towards an early January release. Which is interesting.

I also ran statistics for character reveals vs. releases. However, this data barely has any legs to stand on compared to Amiibo theory, so this data is a lot more meaningless. But, I did it anyway, and here it is.
Weridly, it's trending towards the same day in late February. So at least it shows some cohesion there.

And finally, I decided to average the dates from amiibo/release with the reveal/release dates just for the heck of it. This one still doesn't have a lot of legs to stand on compared to the amiibo data alone, but still provides some neat foresight.
  • North America: January 31st
  • Europe: February 1st
  • Japan: February 3rd
  • Average: February 1st
This one seems a bit more middle of the road with it trending towards Late January, early February.

So yeah, I did a lot of math for this one. Again, this is simply an approximation and NOT precise at all. It fails to account for other variables. But, it provides a good conversation piece I think.

If you want this post, but in greater detail, you can click this spoiler to see it.

So before I get into the meat of this, I want to mention that everything you're going to see in this post is not accurate 100%. The things covered do not account for all variables.

Everything here are approximations and should be treated as such. While we can look at some variables, we can't track them all due to the unpredictability of life. So keep that in mind when reading this.

And even if the process I'm about to mention is arguably hysterical and overzealous for a game like Smash, I did have a lot of fun doing this. So I thought I would share on how it was done and what we can take away from this.

To start... some background. Of course, the Fighters Pass is almost complete, with one fighter left to be revealed. And, due to that, a lot are wondering about the release date of that character.

Well... after thinking about it for awhile, and thinking about tools I could potentially use to help get some sort of info without rumors, I turned to the one that's been pretty accurate so far. And that's Amiibo Theory.

In short, the theory explains that the amiibo release dates are tied with fighter releases as they release close to each other. And ever since Piranha Plant's release, it's had a decent track record.

So I decided to test the limits of the theory using... mathematics.

What I decided to do was record the release dates for all DLC fighters and Amiibo releases as a basis (of course.) However, I decided, instead of just focusing on North America, I also collected data from Europe and Japan as well. As, unsurprisingly, there are variations in the dates.

So after that was recorded, I had to arguably do the hardest part, make the dates universal under one scale. For convenience, I used January 1st, 2019 as one while December 31st, 2018 was zero. And from there, everything was basically in the terms of January of 2019.

As an example if I needed to record February 3rd, 2019; I'd record it as January 34th, 2019 instead. I know that sounds weird, but it got those dates in a uniform scale.

So once I converted all those dates, I plotted the data using Desmos, a widely popular online graphing tool. For the input data (x), I used the converted amiibo dates, and for the output (y) was the converted dlc release dates.

From there, I used the technique known as linear regression, which finds the math function that closely suites the data. And that function was just a simple y=mx+b equation.

Well, using that amiibo date for Dark Samus and Richter (January 17th), I plugged into the function.

Well... four functions actually. Yeah, I said there was variations in the data. And because of that, I regressed equations for each of the data sets. Even though there were three regions, I ended up with four because the 4th one was all the data sets averaged together.

So after I plugged the date into all four functions, what did I get? Well, I ended with these dates for each data set. (linked are graphs to each of the functions for those interested.)
It seems like Amiibo Theory is trending towards an early-ish January release. Which, reasonably, would make sense as a Direct is speculated for this time. And you could have a shadow drop of sorts, maybe.

Well, after all of this, I kind of got in the mood for more statistical stuff. So I decided to compare release dates with reveal dates (instead of the Amiibo dates like done previously.)

Now, I do want to mention that the comparison of reveal dates with release dates is not as strong of a foundation as the amiibo comparison is. This means, in terms of the data, they're a bit more scattered than close together.

Still, I went on to regress the data into a linear function. I also looked at data for North America, Europe, and Japan. Along with taking the average of all of them.

Even though this data has less structure... it's still really interesting. All of the dates *were basically similar to each other in being a conservative date (near the February 2020 deadline basically.)
Now, at this point, I collected most of the data that could be used. However, I had one more trick up my sleeve. I decided to also average each comparison's output together. (Basically just average the dates I got from the amiibo/release comparison with the ones I got from the reveal/release comparison.)
And here's the dates I got (no graphs for this one sadly):
  • North America: January 31st
  • Europe: February 1st
  • Japan: February 3rd
  • Average: February 1st
So basically, there was a lot of math involved in this. It sounds so dumb to do this much, but I honestly had blast going through all of that data.
But again, it is important to recognize that these dates are approximations and in retrospect probably don't mean much. But it at least is something to keep an eye on as Nintendo is ready to move into the rest of the year.

If anyone is interested in the data itself, let me know and I can release it in a doc as soon as possible.
Interesting... so all three statistics point towards a January reveal/release?

One thing to note: do we have data on when amiibo compatibility was included for the previous five Pass characters? As in, was it added before/after the big update (2.0 to 6.0) or in it? Because if it's the latter, it could point towards the next two weeks. If it's the former, then we'll possibly have to wait until the end of the month.
 
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EricTheGamerman

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This is a strawman. Nowhere did I imply that characters that are considered "diverse" don't have value. But just to ensure there I am clear: adding a character primarily to fulfill an arbitrary diversity requirement is silly. If a character meets other more relevant criteria - like those I mentioned previously, such as moveset potential, something that would be present with someone like Sol Badguy - and they happen to have different color skin or something, then I am all for those additions! Again using Sol as an example, if his air dashing and his other mechanics are so cool, than wouldn't it make sense to lead with this rather than his race? What bothers me is when people mainly advocate for a character based off of very narrow, highly politicized, western ideologies and then when you call them out, they shift by saying that there are other redeeming qualities. You'll never see me advocate for Lara Croft mainly because "we need more women", but I'll do it because of everything else she is, including being a bad A.
Different people have different reasons to support a character. If they want to lead with the diversity angle, there's literally nothing wrong with it. What is shallow and unimportant to one person is the main reason someone else supports a character. I can say all kinds of stuff about how I don't understand the appeal of Waluigi, but that doesn't mean his fans are wrong to push those elements of him that they like and lead to them supporting him as an option for example.

People can support a diverse character option at the same time as supporting their unique elements that leads to an overall greater support of that character. People can say they love Bandanna Dee, but also really think that Kirby needs another fighter and end up supporting him over any number of options, and there is absolutely nothing wrong with that and its the exact same thing as the diversity angle people traditionally go with.

Again, Smash fans can walk and chew gum at the same time when it comes to this stuff.
 

epicmartin7

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Interesting... so all three statistics point towards a January reveal/release?

One thing to note? Do we have data on when amiibo compatibility was included for the previous five Pass characters? As in, was it added before/after the big update (2.0 to 6.0) or in it? Because if it's the latter, it could point towards the next two weeks. If it's the former, then we'll possibly have to wait until the end of the month.
I know, according to the SmashBoards post, that at least Richter and Dark Samus's data isn't even in the game yet. So there has to at least be an update before January 17th of some kind.

But, now that you mention it, that might be an avenue to tackle.
 

Garteam

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According to the precedent set by Nintendo and Intelligent Systems v. Enterbrain and Tirnanog, 2002, spiritual successors are legally protected as a distinct IP under Japanese law. As such, Square has no ownership over Xenosaga and KOS-MOS, despite publishing the original Xenogears.
 

Cutie Gwen

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Also Maximilian Dood, one of the most wellknown fighting game youtubers naturally gravitates towards blonde white dudes, surprisingly, he himself is a blonde white dude. Anyway yeah quotas are bad, now allow to write my essay on why Donkey Kong needs more reps and how we need more villains
 

AceAttorney9000

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I know, according to the SmashBoards post, that at least Richter and Dark Samus's data isn't even in the game yet. So there has to at least be an update before January 17th of some kind.

But, now that you mention it, that might be an avenue to tackle.
So does this mean that we can probably expect a Direct within the next two weeks?
 

DaybreakHorizon

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Also Maximilian Dood, one of the most wellknown fighting game youtubers naturally gravitates towards blonde white dudes, surprisingly, he himself is a blonde white dude. Anyway yeah quotas are bad, now allow to write my essay on why Donkey Kong needs more reps and how we need more villains
never forgot that dark pit took a character slot on sm4shs roster that couuldve goeto ridley or dixi cupng
 

Metal Shop X

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Why does peoples want Cosmos/Space to be a character in Smash?

What's next, Heaven join the battle?
frieza 2.jpg
 

TheAJJohnson

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Different people have different reasons to support a character. If they want to lead with the diversity angle, there's literally nothing wrong with it. What is shallow and unimportant to one person is the main reason someone else supports a character. I can say all kinds of stuff about how I don't understand the appeal of Waluigi, but that doesn't mean his fans are wrong to push those elements of him that they like and lead to them supporting him as an option for example.

People can support a diverse character option at the same time as supporting their unique elements that leads to an overall greater support of that character. People can say they love Bandanna Dee, but also really think that Kirby needs another fighter and end up supporting him over any number of options, and there is absolutely nothing wrong with that and its the exact same thing as the diversity angle people traditionally go with.

Again, Smash fans can walk and chew gum at the same time when it comes to this stuff.
First, we're in a agreement about Waluigi. Haha.

Second, saying people can do and think how they want is self-evident and is not a point of contention. I agree there is nothing morally wrong with leading with a political diversity argument. You're right that what is shallow to me might not be to someone else, which is the whole purpose for my comment. This a discussion thread and I'm trying to make a persuasive argument. I don't hate the people that think this way or anything, I am just debating by saying that their criteria for choosing characters is weak. If my language earlier conveyed that this was somehow morally incorrect of them, I amend those statements. (Additionally, I admit that since I'm doing this on my phone, it's hard to look at my and any of your previous comments, which may cause minor inconsistencies and variations in my language. Please forgive me for that.)

However, when those advocating based off of these criteria argue that it's somehow morally wrong that there isn't more diversity and that leads to name calling and demoralizing statements, this is where I have an issue.
 
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3BitSaurus

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So I didn't find amiibo compatibility charts, but I tried to estimate them based on release dates:
  • Wolf, Ridley, Inkling - December 07, 2018, so 1.0.0, base game or maybe 1.1.0, day 1 patch
  • Piranha Plant, Ice Climbers, K. Rool - February 15 2019, so the closest update is 2.0.0, 2 weeks prior, which had Plant
  • Ken, Young Link, Daisy - April 12 2019, so the closest is 2.0.1, without characters.
  • Pichu, Isabelle, Pokémon Trainer - July 19, 2019, the last update being 3.0.1, post Joker, the update that fixed his Classic mode bug.
  • Squirtle, Ivysaur, Snake - September 20, 2019, the last update being 5.0.0, with Banjo and Kazooie.
  • Chrom, Simon, Incineroar - November 8, immediately after Terry, so 6.0.0
  • Dark Samus and Richter - January 17, 2020. Thing is, latest patch was 2 months ago, so there's two possibilities: either they got added in 6.1.0 (November 14), which sounds unlikely or we're getting an update soon.
I'm not sure if they would add amiibo compatibility in minor, unnumbered updates, but... I guess it's also a possibility?
 
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Opossum

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Can't speak to Bayonetta, but Corrin is canonically bisexual, being able to S-Support (marry) Fates other bisexual characters when the same gender (Niles and Rhajat).

Byleth and Edelgard are also canonically bisexual. Although, Edelgard will only take Byleth as a wife.
Though it should be noted, too, that while they don't explicitly marry, Edelgard's B support with Dorothea does outright say that, assuming she ever has time for romance, she'd think the prospect of her and Dorothea getting together would be exciting. :p

Anywho Edelgard for Smash, as always.
 

Cutie Gwen

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Though it should be noted, too, that while they don't explicitly marry, Edelgard's B support with Dorothea does outright say that, assuming she ever has time for romance, she'd think the prospect of her and Dorothea getting together would be exciting. :p

Anywho Edelgard for Smash, as always.
Edgelords are gonna be torn as they can't whine about forced diversity as they whine about too many FE reps, she's perfect
 

epicmartin7

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So does this mean that we can probably expect a Direct within the next two weeks?
We don't know. Could be a small or big update. We'll just have to wait and see.

So I didn't find amiibo compatibility charts, but I tried to estimate them based on release dates:
  • Wolf, Ridley, Inkling - December 07, 2018, so 1.0.0, base game or maybe 1.1.0, day 1 patch
  • Piranha Plant, Ice Climbers, K. Rool - February 15 2019, so the closest update is 2.0.0, 2 weeks prior, which had Plant
  • Ken, Young Link, Daisy - April 12 2019, so the closest is 2.0.1, without characters.
  • Pichu, Isabelle, Pokémon Trainer - July 19, 2019, the last update being 3.0.1, post Joker, the update that fixed his Classic mode bug.
  • Squirtle, Ivysaur, Snake - September 20, 2019, the last update being 5.0.0, with Banjo and Kazooie.
  • Chrom, Simon, Incineroar - November 8, immediately after Terry, so 6.0.0
  • Dark Samus and Richter - January 17, 2020. Thing is, latest patch was 2 months ago, so there's two possibilities: either they got added in 6.1.0 (November 14), which sounds unlikely or we're getting an update soon.
I'm not sure if they would add amiibo compatibility in minor, unnumbered updates, but... I guess it's also a possibility?
Oh wow, thanks for compiling the data. Will definitely help things out!
 

3BitSaurus

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Oh wow, thanks for compiling the data. Will definitely help things out!
You're welcome! The dates I listed for the amiibo releases were the earliest ones I could find, which aren't always the same worldwide. Another thing to keep in mind is that I listed the closest previous update to each amiibo wave, but there is a possibility the data was added before that, so it's obviously not conclusive.

What's interesting about all of this is that, assuming these were indeed the updates for amiibo data, then it means the last two characters came with amiibo compatibility, further supporting the idea of CP5 before January 17th.
 
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Scoliosis Jones

Kept you waiting, huh?
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I feel as though diversity among gaming leads in Smash has more to do with the pool of selection and less with "political agenda".

It makes me think of teaching, especially in New York State. There was this big media storyline concerning Buffalo State college and their teaching programs, and how Buffalo Schools don't have Black teachers, or more teachers that look like their students. The question pointed to Buff State was, "What gives? Why don't we have more black teachers?"

Well, the main issue is: Very, very few black students decide to get into teaching because of their experiences in school. Statistically, anyway. I saw it happen within the education program I was a part of. You can't hire teacher candidates that don't exist.

Now, obviously, there's more to diversity than black or brown human beings. We have characters who are of different cultural backgrounds. The thing of it is, it's difficult to find black lead characters that may be chosen for DLC. That isn't to say, they shouldn't be added, as that's silly. But would they be chosen just because of skin color or gender alone? I'm not too sure about that, but I also don't think that's what anybody is arguing. I think it'd be more of, who is this character, what can they do, and what do they bring to Smash as a total package? Even more, what does their series bring to Smash?

Side note: I've noticed that there are more female lead characters than ever before, but there still seems to be a lacking of non-white lead characters in the industry. Even more, there's an inherent lack of blatant LGBTQ lead roles.

I think, though, that diversity beyond skin color and gender does have something to celebrate. Gameplay styles, art styles, character backgrounds, there's actually quite a bit that makes the characters we currently have stand out from one another. That in itself, I think is pretty neato. (This isn't to downplay the lack of black/brown playable characters in Smash, I just think it's an issue of pool to choose from than choosing not to pick them in the first place.)

Basically, there's a good amount of diversity in Smash beyond skin color, but I think the discussion of future Smash picks with that lens is interesting overall.

(Hope I don't sound preachy. I legitimately find the discussion interesting, and while I don't think any pick would be decided upon because of any one identity quality, I do have to wonder whether there's like a...historical reasoning for why we don't see more. That said, I believe there was something Sakurai mentioned for Wii U when he added more women.)

EDIT: Something else to consider too is that if we're looking at "diverse" characters to include those audiences, I think we need to keep in mind that people of all sorts of backgrounds can develop an interest in something that isn't based on race, gender, economic class, etc. Again, this doesn't mean that it shouldn't be considered whatsoever, but I think sometimes when we make a "diversity" argument, we pigeonhole certain audiences by assuming that those fans can only be appealed to with specific choices. If that were the case, I'd only be interested in straight white dudes. Two of my most wanted are females, one of which is canon lesbian. Just a thought.
 
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DarthEnderX

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Is the fifth character just gonna someone THAT incredibly obscure even beyond nerd knowledge or are Verge and Sabi’s sources full of pure BS and it’s someone from the kill list?
The second thing. Even if it's not someone from the kill list, it's still the second thing.
 

CureParfait

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I really just wished that the no-show at VGAs last year pushed a reset button on Sabi and Verge’s claims because I’m super ****ing tired of speculation hell around Fighter 5 and their deconfirm list because that basically put literally every viable Smash candidate out of the running.

Is the fifth character just gonna someone THAT incredibly obscure even beyond nerd knowledge or are Verge and Sabi’s sources full of pure BS and it’s someone from the kill list?
I think the latter but I won't count out on the low possibility of the former happening.
 

perfectchaos83

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Correct me if I’m wrong but dose verges source have a source that knows #5?
I've posted this many times at this point. Who Verge talks to does not know who FP5 is, but the person who he does talk to knows who FP5 is

Person who Knows FP5 > Unknown amount of people > Verge's Source > Verge > Us
 

Garteam

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Knock on wood, but I honestly think Fighter #5 might remain unleaked until their reveal, especially if we do have a decent chance of getting a Wednesday direct this week.
 

EricTheGamerman

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Knock on wood, but I honestly think Fighter #5 might remain unleaked until their reveal, especially if we do have a decent chance of getting a Wednesday direct this week.
Nintendo will find some way to **** this up Monday morning then lol.
 

Cosmic77

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I know I've said this multiple times before, but I'm more interested in what comes after the pass than I am Fighter #5.

How many more characters are we getting? Will there be another Fighter Pass? Two passes? Just two characters and then Sakurai retires?
 

Calamitas

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Knock on wood, but I honestly think Fighter #5 might remain unleaked until their reveal, especially if we do have a decent chance of getting a Wednesday direct this week.
Eh, the little "New!" thingy on the Smash website is still up, so I'm having my doubts on whether or not we're gonna get anything. If it's still up by this time tomorrow, then I'm almost certain that we won't get anything this week.
 

clearandsweet

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Hope I don't sound preachy. I legitimately find the discussion interesting
Exactly! I find it super engaging too, because it's not clear. Frankly, everything said over the last two pages about diversity has been absolutely spot-on, even if they're on the opposite side of the debate.

I mean they've also all been couched in the forum message board style of absolute right and wrong dismissive vitriol, but I like to believe people know the truth isn't as binary as their posts seem and they were just exaggerating for effect.


That said, I believe there was something Sakurai mentioned for Wii U when he added more women.
Yeah, you don't need to look very hard for evidence that Sakurai does to some degree consider demographics, diversity, appealing to everyone, ect. Banjo and Hero announced at the same time, the ballot results being broken down by regions, the women comment you mention, Isabelle's inclusion alongside K Rool and Ridley. He even said that he valued including non-human characters and villains as he didn't want everyone in the game to be a protagonist.

Hell, even being non-Nintendo is a form of "diversity".

The question is how much, and to what degree does he value the myriad of different factors that are all lumped under "diversity".

This flows nicely into your next point:

Now, obviously, there's more to diversity than black or brown human beings.
Basically, there's a good amount of diversity in Smash beyond skin color, but I think the discussion of future Smash picks with that lens is interesting overall.
Even by the standards of what we in the West typically talk about when we say "diversity", consider that Cloud Strife is a representative for mental illness, Bayonetta is a representative for mothers (at least in Bayo 1) and exhibitionists, Shulk and Bayo both positively portray British people, Bowser and Chrom for fathers, Olimar for little people, Peach and Chrom for government officials, ect ect and I could go on and on and on for days.

While cool and totally valuable, these aspects aren't really represented by the gameplay of Smash. Or, if they are, they aren't as much as say, being a literal crocodile is, or as being true to their original video games is.

And that's why these aspects take a backseat in character selection. Tracer isn't going to have a taunt where her girlfriend comes out and they kiss on screen.

But it is fair to say that, if one were looking for positive factors to form an argument that she could be included, Sakurai would view her gender as a benefit, just at least so they don't make the DLC all male protagonists (which is what the original post said). Her sexuality, as it wouldn't be anywhere on screen, probably not so much.

Diversity in this sense matters, but to Sakurai, I think, gameplay has always mattered more. I think this is what Sakurai meant with the "anyone can be chosen as long as they are fun" quote. Just like popularity, or rights issues, or fan outcry to some extent, does matter, just not nearly as much as gameplay.

I don't think any pick would be decided upon because of any one identity quality,
Now I'm just imagining a Burger King Kids Club forced rainbow Smash roster. Man the '90s were something.



It's totally fair for people to ask for more diverse characters that also cover all sorts of great video games and statuses. It's possible for diversity to be a relevant factor without being somehow the only factor.
Well said. And yeah, I think that until we get to an equilibrium utopia where there every race, issue, quality, and metric is proportionately represented and it doesn't matter, diversity is worth talking about and making people consider.

And yeah, I mean I liked Nier: Autoamata because of what it said universally about the human condition and purpose, but if you want to support 2B because she's a woman or blind or platinum blonde or a swordfighter or a good fisherman or
was forced to kill her best friend again and again
and that endeared the game and the character to you personally, hey, cool. They can all be right at the same time.

It's just obviously so many factors to choosing who to include in an ensemble game like this, and it's hard to judge which are the most important to Sakurai at any given time.
 
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Rie Sonomura

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Eh, the little "New!" thingy on the Smash website is still up, so I'm having my doubts on whether or not we're gonna get anything. If it's still up by this time tomorrow, then I'm almost certain that we won't get anything this week.
maybe it'll be gone in a few hours?
 

EricTheGamerman

Smash Master
Joined
Jul 21, 2014
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Eh, the little "New!" thingy on the Smash website is still up, so I'm having my doubts on whether or not we're gonna get anything. If it's still up by this time tomorrow, then I'm almost certain that we won't get anything this week.
Or they've just finally wised up to that being a dead giveaway that something is about to happen. It would have only just took a year and a half lol.
 

Garteam

Smash Master
Joined
Jul 17, 2014
Messages
3,284
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Canada, eh?
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Garteam
What's the standard timeline on the length of time between the "New" banner disappearing and getting an announcement? If we do get a Wednesday direct, we're still about 3 days away from that.
 
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