Hello, I'm back from the dead, although I'm not sure if I'm gonna post regularly again. It looks like most speculation is about third-party characters, which makes sense considering that 80% of all DLC characters and 100% of Fighter Pass characters are third-party for now. So at least it makes sense to expect FP5 to be yet another third-party. But what's the consensus about Nintendo characters like?
In order to have a character native to the Switch (although Link kinda already fits that role) and following the logic behind Corrin's inclusion in Smash 4 who was added for the sake of having character born after Smash 4 itself, I think it might be reasonable to expect at least one Nintendo newcomer to be a post-Ultimate character. But this depends of when the post-Fighter Pass characters were chosen. I might assume it's something like two or three months before they announced that more characters are coming, so June or July of the year that ended a few days ago.
Notable released published by Nintendo since that period were: Super Mario Maker 2, Fire Emblem Three Houses, Astral Chain, Daemon X Machina, Link's Awakening remake, Luigi's Mansion 3, Pokémon Sword and Shield.
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Super Mario Maker 2: winged snow Pokey for Smash! Seriously tho, this game is fine without more references in Smash, SMM1 representation indirectly fits that game.
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FE3H: unlike others referenced here, this game got no acknowledgment through free DLC spirits, and combined with the Corrin precedent which is not just for a new post-Smash game but also another Fire Emblem game it to be the most discussed Nintendo newcomer for what I've seen. I also know it was very well received, although how well received might not have been known by the time, depending of how early or late the post-FP characters were chosen by Nintendo and Sakurai. Apparently the game has several protagonists, so if Nintendo suggested the concept of a FE3H rep, Sakurai might have chosen the character by himself, with criteria such as moveset potential, return from IS, and possibly fan input; if the later matters then it looks like one in particular might be more likely since she seems to be the most suggested rep (Eldegard). However Sakurai hesitated putting Corrin as Smash 4 DLC due to perceived FE overload, but it's also possible he might have dropped this mindset since he didn't hesitate to add Chrom in addition to bringing bck everyone. Alternatively the lack of FE3H spirits seems hardly compatible with a FE3H playable character coming with no other content similar to Piranha Plant (asides from a few bonus music tracks similar to the Sans Mii costume), so if we get a character from that game it's very likely it comes with their DLC spirit board; even though it's not a new IP like with other DLC spirit boards, I believe this game's settings are quite independent from that of other games in the series, further justifying the idea of a DLC spirit board coming alongside a character from that game.
Personally I haven't played this FE game, but if the gameplay is solid, why not. My main gripe with Awakening was that the longer I played it the more I realized the gameplay was unbalanced which affected my enjoyment of the game when replaying (map design was often meh and pair-up was so broken turning it into a final smash felt completely appropriate).
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Astral Chain: for some reason from what I've lurked I don't remember this game being mentioned in Smash speculation, but I believe that game was fairly well received and advertised, and seems to be to be the best shot as a DLC-introduced new IP that isn't owned by a third-party. It hasn't received acknowledgment through free DLC spirits, which helps it even better than FE3H considering being a new IP would completely justify giving it not just a DLC spirit board and new music, but a new stage as well. However it may compete with 2B as both Astral Chain and Nier Automata were developped by Platinum Games, giving them some overlap in appeal, and maybe the later game is overall more well-known.
I should be getting this game two weeks from now, as I've asked for it as a late Christmas gift, considering the generally positive reviews and that I can expect something good coming from Platinum. As a bonus it might be another opportunity for me to set my own opinion about its prospect for Smash.
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Daemon X Machina: already received representation through free DLC spirits, for an unrepresented IP I think it's all or nothing as part of the paid DLC so I'd write it off as unlikely.
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Link's Awakening remake: there's no material for a newcomer so the free DLC spirits are enough to acknowledge it. Pass.
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Luigi's Mansion 3: a ghost introduced in this game as a playable character? Yeah but no. The update to Luigi's grab is enough, and that's
in the base game.
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Pokémon Sword and Shield: I've seen someone saying earlier in this thread that it's deconfirmed, is that literally the case or an inference from the fact it already got free DLC spirits? If it's the former you can comfortably ignore everyting said in this section.
At least we can agree SwSh spirits deconfirm the concept of a SwSh DLC spirit board, and that made me more careful about considering a SwSh rep as a safe bet. But we could still imagine a SwSh rep as DLC without being bundled with their own spirit board, and being bundled only with a few music tracks from these games. SwSh spirits already existing and the fact new Pokémon generations are more of an extension of a monster catalogue rather than their own self-contained sub-universes would make it more suitable for not being bundled with a DLC spirit board than an FE3H rep (or maybe I'm just trying to handwave why we could still have both a FE3H and SwSh rep despite their different free DLC spirit treatments). Another thing against that is the fact it released later than FE3H and Astral Chain, but we have precedence of Sakurai accessing to Pokémon information before they're released to the public. Yet another factor against could be the fact it was already controversial before release due to the whole Dexit fiasco (and I must admit I wasn't aware of Dexit before playing Sword lol), although I might overrate how much of a deterrent it might be due to the damage happening mostly in the loyal long-term fanbase rather than casual fans and it might have been judged unlikely to cause sale drops (indeed it didn't have much of an effect as it still sold incredibly well like other Pokémon games)
Picture this. It's the last fighter. It's the latest Direct. You've waited 40 minutes to see this. Your favorite has not yet been included. Then, BAM! It's not who you wanted. Which character would make you mad? (As in, "WHY DID ((insert that final character)) GET IN?? WTF??")
I remember I went mad at Corrin four years ago, because he combined being a "muh recency" rep and yet another Fire Emblem character. Also Bayonetta was the kind of third-party character I thought wasn't iconic enough to deserve to be playable. And no first-party newcomer outside of, again, "muh recency". This is to say that this direct completely shattered by view on Smash speculation forever. Now I feel like I shouldn't try to convince myself that characters that don't fit my narrative of what kind of character gets in don't deserve to be in, so I don't imagine being mad at any new inclusion at this point (and I find ironic that I was upset by Corrin then but now wouldn't really have a problem with a Three House rep being announced).
Unless they add someone really unpopular and irrelevant like Bubsy.