Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[Deleted member]

FP5 according to Sabi + Vergeben
According to Sabi, the FP5 would belong to one of those that Vergeben had eliminated before its rollback, and he/she wouldn't be one of those he had not mentioned at all (like Sony, for example). Here is the list from which the FP5 would come, according to the most recent deconfirmations by Vergeben.

- Arc System Works rep, but not Sol Badguy nor Ragna -> no other character is possible imo.
- Bethesda rep but not Doomguy -> Dovahkin has no chance imo.
- Blizzard-Activision rep but not Crash nor Tracer -> no other character is possible imo.
- Capcom rep but not Amaterasu, Dante, Monster Hunter nor Phoenix Wright -> no other character is possible imo.
- Epic Games -> Jonesy has no chance imo.
- Koei Tecmo rep but not Hayabusa -> Dead or Alive hasn't much chance to end the pass with a fighting game rep just after Terry. Dynasty Warriors has no chance imo.
- Konami rep -> anyone has no chance to come in front of Bomberman imo.
- Marvelous rep -> Farmer has chance imo.
- Microsoft rep -> Steve has a little chance imo. Master Chief has no chance imo.
- Nintendo rep -> a new character should be "new in the series" and appeared before Xenoblade Chronicles 2. Characters like Mike Jones or Momotetsu guy have no chance imo.
- Sega rep but not Arle Nadja nor Sakura Shinguji -> Sega has already closed the Sm4sh DLC and has already opened the Ultimate DLC. I don't think Sega can be represented in this pass again.
- Squenix rep but not Geno nor (Disney) Sora -> Lara Croft / Bub & Bob weren't directly born from Square or Enix and have a little chance imo. 2B has no chance imo. Space Invaders have no chance imo because "series without future are rarely chosen".
- Spike Chunsoft rep, but not Monokuma -> no other character is possible imo.

You forgot Assist/spirit promotions

 

[Calamitas]

What if they’re wrong though? There’s still a possibility.

If they know who CP5 is, then why are they not sure about Kos-Mos? That doesn’t make sense.

Vergeben has been the most consistently correct leaker for Smash Ultimate's speculation cycle, but go off I guess.

While simultaneously killing all speculation for characters that are supposedly disconfirmed.

So? It's not like there isn't post-pass DLC. Besides, I prefer the current speculation situation to discussing the wonderful merits of Blue Boruto's Dad and Shooty MacGunface for the dozenth time.

 

[Guynamednelson]

If they know who CP5 is, then why are they not sure about Kos-Mos? That doesn’t make sense.

There is less legal trouble involved when you say "It's not X, Y, and Z" than when you say "It's A."

 

[WeirdSandwich]

What if they’re wrong though? There’s still a possibility.

If they know who CP5 is, then why are they not sure about Kos-Mos? That doesn’t make sense.

The only way it can make sense, if they're fully telling the truth, is that they know Kos-Mos is planned or is in development as a post pass character but think that there is chance that the order could be swapped around between now and February so that Kos-Mos is brought forward to FP5. This is unlikely however since Kos-Mos would need a stage and music, and there's no indication of post pass characters getting those. But maybe it could happen if post pass characters are getting more content then we expect.

The more likely scenarios are:
1. Source knows who FP5 is, and its Kos-Mos, but they're just saying "not sure" to avoid having to outright confirm now.
2. Source knows who FP5 is, and its not Kos-Mos, in which case they're lying by saying "not sure" in order to stoke discussion by throwing out a red herring. But if they're not telling the truth then this puts the other deconfirmations in doubt.
3. Source doesn't actually know who FP5 is for certain.

 

[Deleted member]

The only way it can make sense, if they're fully telling the truth, is that they know Kos-Mos is planned or is in development as a post pass character but think that there is chance that the order could be swapped around between now and February so that Kos-Mos is brought forward to FP5. This is unlikely however since Kos-Mos would need a stage and music, and there's no indication of post pass characters getting those. But maybe it could happen if post pass characters are getting more content then we expect.

The more likely scenarios are:
1. Source knows who FP5 is, and its Kos-Mos, but they're just saying "not sure" to avoid having to outright confirm now.
2. Source knows who FP5 is, and its not Kos-Mos, in which case they're lying by saying "not sure" in order to stoke discussion by throwing out a red herring. But if they're not telling the truth then this puts the other deconfirmations in doubt.
3. Source doesn't actually know who FP5 is for certain.

Or It could be holding on to safety since he saw that game awards leak before it was fake

I still don’t think we should take this silent thing as a confirmation she’s in. It took verge a while to deconfirm reimu one time

either way I’m gonna have to write her off as a bamco rep and listen to what sabi said

nothing against kos or anything

 

[P.Kat]

So we're just gonna forget that Under Night In-Birth is a thing

Nope, give me Yuzuriha, or give me... Yuzuriha (found the loophole to avoid death)

So with a mountain of salt, the only choices left are Dragonborn, Something from Dynasty Warriors, A Farmer, Steve, Master Chief, Byleth, Kiryu, or Lara Croft.

Most are heavy hitters, but a few of them are characters I feel most people don't care about in the slightest.

Then we also have KOS-MOS, Saber, 2B, just to name a few more

 

[Deleted member]

The only way it can make sense, if they're fully telling the truth, is that they know Kos-Mos is planned or is in development as a post pass character but think that there is chance that the order could be swapped around between now and February so that Kos-Mos is brought forward to FP5. This is unlikely however since Kos-Mos would need a stage and music, and there's no indication of post pass characters getting those. But maybe it could happen if post pass characters are getting more content then we expect.

The more likely scenarios are:
1. Source knows who FP5 is, and its Kos-Mos, but they're just saying "not sure" to avoid having to outright confirm now.
2. Source knows who FP5 is, and its not Kos-Mos, in which case they're lying by saying "not sure" in order to stoke discussion by throwing out a red herring. But if they're not telling the truth then this puts the other deconfirmations in doubt.
3. Source doesn't actually know who FP5 is for certain.

1. I told my friends about this and they assumed this take. It’s probably the less convoluted one.

2. True, if they play around like that it makes them lose the only thing they have: Credibility.

3. They claim the source knows who it is and yet they keep throwing out disconfirmations, this looks really bad on them.

 

[Diddy Kong]

*yawn*

KOS-MOS can get in wether she's FP5 or not.

She's probably one of the more likely third parties now.

Seems like a senseless discussion.

 

[WeirdSandwich]

Or It could be holding on to safety since he saw that game awards leak before it was fake

I still don’t think we should take this silent thing as a confirmation she’s in. It took verge a while to deconfirm reimu one time

either way I’m gonna have to write her off as a bamco rep and listen to what sabi said

nothing against kos or anything

I agree it's no confirmation, but if they need the extra safety to hold onto it's scenario 3: Verges source doesn't actually know who FP5 is. Please keep in mind that I'm not implying any malice on their part if this is the case, it could just be a case of outdated or incomplete information as has happened before.

I mostly just made the post because I thought it would be fun to imagine what convoluted situation could lead to the contradictory information given by the source to be completely true.

 

[Professor Pumpkaboo]

"m, the Layton twitter hasnt tweeted yet, wonder if they stopped"
*refreshes twitter to see they tweeted 5 hrs ago*
"Oh well **** me, nvm"

They have been tweeting A LOT recently, more then they have before

 

[Deleted member]

*yawn*

KOS-MOS can get in wether she's FP5 or not.

She's probably one of the more likely third parties now.

Seems like a senseless discussion.

Might be senseless to you, but I find it interesting, why her of all characters?

 

[Diddy Kong]

What franchises that are currently in Smash would you like to see get more characters?

I'm gonna ignore the obvious choices (Zelda, Kirby, etc.) and say that I'd really like to see Splatoon and Sonic get more characters. Splatoon because it's been insanely successful, and it's really unique from other Nintendo franchises. Sonic because I feel like it's the second most iconic third-party franchise (only behind Pac-Man) on the roster. Plus, it has several decent options to choose from (Tails, Knuckles, Shadow, Eggman).

1. The Legend of Zelda. Nintendo's biggest franchise after Mario and Pokémon yet no newcomer since Brawl. Young Link being back isn't enough.

2. Donkey Kong Country. The fact Diddy and K.Rool came in so late shouldn't be a factor here, Dixie also needs inclusion.

3. Kirby. Also no newcomer since Brawl. Which is a shame cause there's enough potential.

4. Fire Emblem. Three Houses alone warrants this. It's so obvious I was almost taking it for granted.

5. Xenoblade. KOS-MOS kind of counts right? Rex would probably make it too if XB2 came out earlier.

6. Sonic. I'm not a Sonic fan, far from. But I think the franchise warrants a newcomer. Make it be Knuckles or Tails instead of Shadow please.

 

[Ornl]

You forgot Assist/spirit promotions

No, it was a communication error. "The character is also not a "promoted" Assist Trophy or Spirit either." - Vergeben (link)
So this is consistent with the announcement "new to the series" - Reggie.
Edit: fixed - bad chronology

 

[Curious Villager]

"m, the Layton twitter hasnt tweeted yet, wonder if they stopped"
*refreshes twitter to see they tweeted 5 hrs ago*
"Oh well **** me, nvm"

They have been tweeting A LOT recently, more then they have before

Would be nice if they finally revealed Unwound/Lost Future HD, I really want to replay that game again.

I think Level-5 announced a new Fantasy Life game or something the other day, so maybe we'll hear something Layton related soon, maybe, hopefully....

 

[Deleted member]

No, it was a communication error. "The character is also not a "promoted" Assist Trophy or Spirit either." - Vergeben (link)
So this is consistent with the announcement "new to the series" - Reggie.

Reggies statement could be characters that don’t have a fighter yet you know?

 

[Deleted member]

What franchises that are currently in Smash would you like to see get more characters?

I'm gonna ignore the obvious choices (Zelda, Kirby, etc.) and say that I'd really like to see Splatoon and Sonic get more characters. Splatoon because it's been insanely successful, and it's really unique from other Nintendo franchises. Sonic because I feel like it's the second most iconic third-party franchise (only behind Pac-Man) on the roster. Plus, it has several decent options to choose from (Tails, Knuckles, Shadow, Eggman).

When it comes to Mega Man I was never a fan of the classic one, but the X and Zero Series are my all time favorites, Would like to see Zero as a playable character, especially the one from the GBA series.

A unpopular choice would be the Metal Gear series, Raiden (cyborg one) would be really cool if he brought the tracks from Rising.

since the Castlevania series has a lot of characters, Alucard would be great since he’s probably one of the most recurring characters in the entire series.

 

[Calamitas]

No, it was a communication error. "The character is also not a "promoted" Assist Trophy or Spirit either." - Vergeben (link)
So this is consistent with the announcement "new to the series" - Reggie.

Wrong. Vergeben has long since gone back on that, and explicitly confirmed that promoted assist trophies or spirits are back in the running.

 

[Deleted member]

1. The Legend of Zelda. Nintendo's biggest franchise after Mario and Pokémon yet no newcomer since Brawl. Young Link being back isn't enough.

2. Donkey Kong Country. The fact Diddy and K.Rool came in so late shouldn't be a factor here, Dixie also needs inclusion.

3. Kirby. Also no newcomer since Brawl. Which is a shame cause there's enough potential.

4. Fire Emblem. Three Houses alone warrants this. It's so obvious I was almost taking it for granted.

5. Xenoblade. KOS-MOS kind of counts right? Rex would probably make it too if XB2 came out earlier.

6. Sonic. I'm not a Sonic fan, far from. But I think the franchise warrants a newcomer. Make it be Knuckles or Tails instead of Shadow please.

KOS-MOS originated from Xenosaga and is just a cameo in Xenoblade, so I guess they’d rather put her as a Xenosaga character instead.

 

[dezeray112]

What franchises that are currently in Smash would you like to see get more characters?

- F-Zero: The F-Zero franchise has a tons of characters that deserve more representation in Smash. I would've liked to see the likes of Jody Summers, Black Shadow, Mighty Gazelle etc being playable.

- Xenoblade: Another franchise which deserves more characters. Personally, I feel either Elma, Rex & Pyra or Lora & Jin would be my choices.

- Punch Out! - Would like to have seen Mr. Sandman being playable.

 

[GKMLTTSB]

When it comes to Mega Man I was never a fan of the classic one, but the X and Zero Series are my all time favorites, Would like to see Zero as a playable character, especially the one from the GBA series.

Said it before, but as far as Capcom goes, I'd actually like Tron Bonne.

I tend to consider each of the different sub-series their own thing though, so I'd kind of prefer any additions outside the core Mega Man universe be treated as a new series with a unique icon, stage, tracklist, etc.
(Granted they already kind of went against this with the existing track-list and Final Smash, but eh...)

 

[UserKev]

What franchises that are currently in Smash would you like to see get more characters?

I'm gonna ignore the obvious choices (Zelda, Kirby, etc.) and say that I'd really like to see Splatoon and Sonic get more characters. Splatoon because it's been insanely successful, and it's really unique from other Nintendo franchises. Sonic because I feel like it's the second most iconic third-party franchise (only behind Pac-Man) on the roster. Plus, it has several decent options to choose from (Tails, Knuckles, Shadow, Eggman).

First and foremost, Zelda. Please give Zelda a pass for being one of Nintendo's MOST successful IP's and let otherwise "One offs" be playable, who could easily become Smash staples.

Donkey Kong, no question. After Dixie, get my mother ** Cranky Kong in there.

F-Zero. Samurai Goroh has long earned his place in Smash and could be a excellent 2nd rep for F-Zero.

Yoshi. I say throw in Shy Guy.

Punch Out. Gimmie Doc Louis.

I can agree with Sonic that, he's a third party lock and will never be cut from the roster due to his incredible merge with Nintendo. Either Knuckles or Eggman.

 

[Professor Pumpkaboo]

Would be nice if they finally revealed Unwound/Lost Future HD, I really want to replay that game again.

I think Level-5 announced a new Fantasy Life game or something the other day, so maybe we'll hear something Layton related soon, maybe, hopefully....

what new fantasy life game? only one I know of is the mobile one that should really been on 3ds

 

[Deleted member]

Ornl i checked the link and this was part of verges old deconfirm list he later said that the old list weren’t deconfirms but the new one were
And now that sabi is saying that 5 is The one he listed on the old list puts spirits back in the running for 5 along with others who haven’t been deconfirmed by verge recently in his new list

 

[Curious Villager]

what new fantasy life game? only one I know of is the mobile one that shoulf really been on 3ds

I think that might be the one, Fantasy Life online, I don't know if its a port or new game but Level-5's been tweeting about it the last few days.

 

[Professor Pumpkaboo]

I think that might be the one, Fantasy Life online, I don't know if its a port or new game but Level-5's been tweeting about it the last few days.

yeah, the game that is wasted on phones

 

[nessdeltarune00]

The only way it can make sense, if they're fully telling the truth, is that they know Kos-Mos is planned or is in development as a post pass character but think that there is chance that the order could be swapped around between now and February so that Kos-Mos is brought forward to FP5. This is unlikely however since Kos-Mos would need a stage and music, and there's no indication of post pass characters getting those. But maybe it could happen if post pass characters are getting more content then we expect.

The more likely scenarios are:
1. Source knows who FP5 is, and its Kos-Mos, but they're just saying "not sure" to avoid having to outright confirm now.
2. Source knows who FP5 is, and its not Kos-Mos, in which case they're lying by saying "not sure" in order to stoke discussion by throwing out a red herring. But if they're not telling the truth then this puts the other deconfirmations in doubt.
3. Source doesn't actually know who FP5 is for certain.

Or maybe Verge was creating a safety net, despite explicitly saying “no Namco?”

 

[Deleted member]

What franchises that are currently in Smash would you like to see get more characters?

The only series who seriously deserves more content is Final Fantasy.

Further representation is good and all, but only if it's the representation I want. For example, I'd choose Geno over literally every other Mario character and Rex over Elma.

Though I'm also lowkey pushing Yu Narukami from the Persona series because why not?

 

[Curious Villager]

yeah, the game that is wasted on phones

Probably, I wouldn't mind seeing a new London Life though, the one released for Last Specter was pretty cute and I wouldn't mind seeing a more expanded version of it.

 

[GKMLTTSB]

On the subject of random Level-5 news, the hellish Yokai Watch event is coming back to FFXIV.
with weapons for the new jobs this time, at least...

Fantasy Life Online wound up getting a FFXIV event out of the collaboration before, so potential for more XIV stuff crossing over into Level 5 stuff?
Not sure, but they are keeping Yokai Watch in the public eye...

 

[Deleted member]

Would love to see Layton and the Lost Future on Switch too.

 

[Ramen Tengoku]

What franchises that are currently in Smash would you like to see get more characters?

I'm gonna ignore the obvious choices (Zelda, Kirby, etc.) and say that I'd really like to see Splatoon and Sonic get more characters. Splatoon because it's been insanely successful, and it's really unique from other Nintendo franchises. Sonic because I feel like it's the second most iconic third-party franchise (only behind Pac-Man) on the roster. Plus, it has several decent options to choose from (Tails, Knuckles, Shadow, Eggman).

Fire Emblem and Pokemon. Yeah, I said it. There's a reason we keep getting so many of them. Cuz they all end up becoming fun additions. Everyone complains about the 10 Pokemon in smash, but when you remember there are 800+ Pokemon total, that number's definitely minimal. As for Fire Emblem, I can pick up and play all 7 of it's characters, one of the few series that has this honor. Not to mention the recent releases of TH and SWSH. In particular, I'd love to see Byleth for a new FE rep and either Cinderace or Rillaboom for another Pokemon.

Street Fighter. For being one of the most iconic fighting games in history, it's got a nice set of characters. Kind of a shame we have to be stuck with only the Shotos. I'd love to see more. Gimme Chun Li, gimme Bison, Blanka, Dhalisim, my girl, Cammy. Heck, I wouldn't mind an assist upgrade for Guile.

And Xenoblade and Kirby, if only for Elma and Bandanna Waddle Dee respectively

 

[DarthEnderX]

- Arc System Works rep, but not Sol Badguy nor Ragna -> no other character is possible imo.

KU-NI-OOOOOOOH!!

So we're just gonna forget that Under Night In-Birth is a thing

We're going to forget it's a thing that could get added before Guilty Gear or River City, yes.

 

[Ornl]

Ornl i checked the link and this was part of verges old deconfirm list he later said that the old list weren’t deconfirms but the new one were
And now that sabi is saying that 5 is The one he listed on the old list puts spirits back in the running for 5 along with others who haven’t been deconfirmed by verge recently in his new list

Ow, right ! Thank you for your research. I tend to dismiss too quickly everything that "revives" ideas that are contrary to the Pilliars Theory.

 

[osby]

What franchises that are currently in Smash would you like to see get more characters?

I'm gonna ignore the obvious choices (Zelda, Kirby, etc.) and say that I'd really like to see Splatoon and Sonic get more characters. Splatoon because it's been insanely successful, and it's really unique from other Nintendo franchises. Sonic because I feel like it's the second most iconic third-party franchise (only behind Pac-Man) on the roster. Plus, it has several decent options to choose from (Tails, Knuckles, Shadow, Eggman).

Bayonetta: That's only for Jeanne, I'll admit.

Sonic and Persona: I love both series and I think they have a lot of potential in terms of good character choices.

Fire Emblem: Three Houses. Enough said.

 

[GKMLTTSB]

KU-NI-OOOOOOOH!!

We're going to forget it's a thing that could get added before Guilty Gear or River City, yes.

In the end, there is only Gowcaizer.

 

[DarthEnderX]

'Cause it helps narrow down speculation?

It only helps if they actually know something and aren't just making it all up...which they are.

The more likely scenarios are:
1. Source knows who FP5 is, and its Kos-Mos, but they're just saying "not sure" to avoid having to outright confirm now.
2. Source knows who FP5 is, and its not Kos-Mos, in which case they're lying by saying "not sure" in order to stoke discussion by throwing out a red herring. But if they're not telling the truth then this puts the other deconfirmations in doubt.
3. Source doesn't actually know who FP5 is for certain.

Its that third one.

 

[Calamitas]

It only helps if they actually know something and aren't just making it all up...which they are.

Vergeben has been the most consistently correct leaker for Smash Ultimate's speculation cycle, but go off I guess.

Ok Ender

 

[nessdeltarune00]

FP5 according to Sabi + Vergeben
According to Sabi, the FP5 would belong to one of those that Vergeben had eliminated before its rollback, and he/she wouldn't be one of those he had not mentioned at all (like Sony, for example). Here is the list from which the FP5 would come, according to the most recent deconfirmations by Vergeben.

- Arc System Works rep, but not Sol Badguy nor Ragna -> no other character is possible imo.
- Bethesda rep but not Doomguy -> Dovahkin has no chance imo.
- Blizzard-Activision rep but not Crash nor Tracer -> no other character is possible imo.
- Capcom rep but not Amaterasu, Dante, Monster Hunter nor Phoenix Wright -> no other character is possible imo.
- Epic Games -> Jonesy has no chance imo.
- Koei Tecmo rep but not Hayabusa -> Dead or Alive hasn't much chance to end the pass with a fighting game rep just after Terry. Dynasty Warriors has no chance imo.
- Konami rep -> anyone has no chance to come in front of Bomberman imo.
- Marvelous rep -> Farmer has chance imo.
- Microsoft rep -> Steve has a little chance imo. Master Chief has no chance imo.
- Nintendo rep -> a new character should be "new in the series" and appeared before Xenoblade Chronicles 2. Characters like Mike Jones or Momotetsu guy have no chance imo.
- Sega rep but not Arle Nadja nor Sakura Shinguji -> Sega has already closed the Sm4sh DLC and has already opened the Ultimate DLC. I don't think Sega can be represented in this pass again.
- Squenix rep but not Geno nor (Disney) Sora -> Lara Croft / Bub & Bob weren't directly born from Square or Enix and have a little chance imo. 2B has no chance imo. Space Invaders have no chance imo because "series without future are rarely chosen".
- Spike Chunsoft rep, but not Monokuma -> no other character is possible imo.

The more I see this list and put everything together (including the KOS-MOS safety net), the more Vergebens credibility completely tanks in my eyes.

Going off of this, we might as well just skip to post pass, since there is literally no one left, according to your list of Vergebens deconfirmations. (Lined up with Sabi)

And this is coming from a former believer.

 

[Ramen Tengoku]

- Epic Games -> Jonesy has no chance imo.

and to think we said the same thing about joker

the confirmations always hit you outta nowhere

 

[Deleted member]

and to think we said the same thing about joker

the confirmations always hit you outta nowhere

It still feels like yesterday when some people used to call me a madman for seriously thinking Eight from DQ8 stood a chance alongside Luminary and Erdrick.