Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[snowgolem]

Fat Albert as a Jigglypuff semi-clone

 

[3D Dillon]

Here's a video game character that NOBODY was talking about recently:
https://smashboards.com/threads/the-other-shrine-maiden-pocky-sayo-chan-for-smash.495486/
This is if Reimu isn't eligible for Smash.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

I would say at this point that, while I don’t necessarily believe them (I mean, the fact that Sabi has to consistently exclaim, “I’m a reliable leaker” shows he can’t use his record to back himself up), it could end up being a character that hasn’t been disconfirmed, thus giving Verge and Sabi the convenience of getting things right.

However, I’m more convinced that, while they very well COULD be right, it’s because they have allowed themselves a “back door” in case they’re not 100% correct, so that they can fall back on it.

Unfortunately, I think we’re probably going to be stuck for awhile waiting for news, not coming up with good pick discussion because of leakers, and going around and around again. It’s disappointing. It feels to me like the hype bubble burst...kinda, like, this idea that it made the most sense to reveal the pick yesterday because of the hype train, but it’s now left some fans deflated...at least, I’m about ready to see what Pick 5 ends up being, and then getting excited for everything being back on the table for post-pass content.

 

[SirCamp]

The problem is that the Daisy theory may as well be a Rorschach test with how many characters can fit it.

Like, you can just as easily say it's Edelgard due to being a royal associated with flowers and her theme song, Edge of Dawn, being put on iTunes yesterday.

You can say it's for Waluigi because like Daisy, he's a Mario character known for spinoffs.

You can say it's Crash because he's orange and has a five letter name.

Nah fam, Daisy is clearly Farmer, because they can, you guessed it, grow daisies! Pack it up boys, that's all she wrote.



For real though, and I mentioned this in the Farmer thread, IF (and that is a fairly big if) the previous deconfirmations do in fact hold water, I actually think Farmer has quite a high chance of being FP5. Especially if we are to take the lack of a TGA reveal as saying anything about the character that is FP5. It just seems like one of the few candidates that isn't dead and it has more going for it than most give it credit for. Farmer just isn't flashy.

 

[nessdeltarune00]

After watching a recent Papagenos video, where he claims that he will stop paying attention to Vergebens deconfirmations, I kind of feel a bit better about the deconfirmation list now.

At this point, if he has a kill list that big, he knows who FP5 is. Beating around the bush and name dropping literally everyone being disconfirmed is kind of trollish behavior at this point

But who knows at this point. They do say the first stage is denial, after all.

 

[M@R!3]

So the VGAs amounted to a whole lot of nothing (mostly). My next guess for a reveal would be in a January Direct. Not sure if the previous deconfirmations still stand, but I'm not willing to throw them out either.

 

[Deleted member]

After watching a recent Papagenos video, where he claims that he will stop paying attention to Vergebens deconfirmations, I kind of feel a bit better about the deconfirmation list now.

At this point, if he has a kill list that big, he knows who FP5 is. Beating around the bush and name dropping literally everyone being disconfirmed is kind of trollish behavior at this point

But who knows at this point. They do say the first stage is denial, after all.

That and if they knew who it was, they probably would have known whether there would be a reveal last night or not and could have spared us all 3 hours. At least those of us who only watched for a potential smash reveal, anyway.

 

[KillerCage]

After watching a recent Papagenos video, where he claims that he will stop paying attention to Vergebens deconfirmations, I kind of feel a bit better about the deconfirmation list now.

At this point, if he has a kill list that big, he knows who FP5 is. Beating around the bush and name dropping literally everyone being disconfirmed is kind of trollish behavior at this point

But who knows at this point. They do say the first stage is denial, after all.

You are referring to this video, right?

EDIT: Is it this one?

 

[MissingGlitch]

I always thought Papageno was more of a speculator like the rest of us. He just hung out with Sabi so he bases his theories based off that.

I only say that because he seems to have a new leak video pretty often.

 

[DarthEnderX]

How did you deal with the disappointment that was TGA?

I just told myself, "At least KOS-MOS or Reimu weren't announced." and then I felt better.

 

[epicmartin7]

Hey guys, creator of the Max CSS Hypothesis here! I need a favor from ya'll.

If anyone could list, on the top of their head, some of the current ongoing theories in Smash speculation, that'd be great. They can be as realisitic or as absurd as you want!

If you could think of some, definitely send them my way!

 

[Night Gale]

Here's a video game character that NOBODY was talking about recently:
https://smashboards.com/threads/the-other-shrine-maiden-pocky-sayo-chan-for-smash.495486/
This is if Reimu isn't eligible for Smash.

This is the most esoteric candidate I've seen in a long ass time. You have my support.

 

[perfectchaos83]

That and if they knew who it was, they probably would have known whether there would be a reveal last night or not and could have spared us all 3 hours. At least those of us who only watched for a potential smash reveal, anyway.

People really don't seem to know what's going on, do they?

Verge nor Sabi know who the character is. They've admitted as much themselves. What's going on is a game of telephone. Sabi is in contact with someone who heard of Terry and FP5 at the same time and Verge's Source has a source that knows who the character is. The reason for the game we're in now is because neither of those sources will relinquish the identity of FP5 at this point in time for a variety of reasons. Most likely because a very small amount of people actually know who it is and it can be traced back to specific people.

Why they are getting who it's not is because it's harder to track and differentiate from actual speculation.

 

[DarthEnderX]

I know some people would prefer a non-triforce wielder but i would unironically be down for a 2nd Ganon. Especially if it'd mean that he could be totally unique this time, as in, not a clone of Captain Falcon i mean.

I don't want a 2nd Ganondorf, but I definitely DO want a Ganondorf that's not a CF clone...

 

[epicmartin7]

Oh wait LMAO. Didn't realize you guys were just talking about a theory. Well, that unintentionally works for me!

 

[Iko MattOrr]

My stance on FP5 right now:

60% - Sabi, Vergeben or both's deconfirmations are real and the characters comes from a company we overlooked or from Nintendo
30% - Rumors about Kos-Mos were right and it's still her, even if she wasn't at TGA
10% - deconfirmations were wrong and it's someone from the deconfirmation list

I still mostly believe that the deconfirmations are true, but I'm not fully convinced, there's still a possibility that they were wrong.
The reason for why I believe they are probably true, is because we don't have big evidence of those "leakers" being wrong, we just have some inconsistences in what they said, but it's all still too vague to reach a conclusion. If Banjo is something to take into account, Verge "predicted" Banjo only a few days before the announcement (and after being leaked by another source), so, probably they don't know the name of a DLC for real until short before reveal. The fact that they were unable to give us a name should have been an hint of no announcement at TGA, and in fact, no announcement. I would have suspected more of their credibility if they gave us a name for TGA and then turned out there was none, but they didn't know for real, it matches. Also, Sabi reposted Jon's post of the "no dash" thing, saying it had an hidden meaning and stuff. Maybe a coincidence, but he was right, the post's "hidden meaning" happend for real. So I still have some faith in them, not much, but enough to still take their deconfirmations into account.

 

[blackghost]

might as well post my thoughts on tgas.
i really was almost positive SOMETHING would happen, but the strangest thing is almost nothing did. this is not just nintendo this is all game companies. we got an xbox series x reveal (awful name), no more heroes 3, more trailers of ff7 remake but not much new footage, no smash, no bayo 3, no botw 2 anything. we didnt even get a formal joker reveal for mk11.
there were 1 million people watching on twitch alone not even counting the various other places to view the show.
while the reveals were mimnimal i was happy with thewinner of gme of the year being sekiro over death stranding and devil may cry 5 didnt get robbed of what it deserved.
also THANK god jump force lost. disgrace to even be there.

with the success nintendo and now sony are getting from controlled environments demonstrations, i expect outside of evo and the major European show reveals will rarely happen live from now on. These companies would rather reveal to their known and serious fanbases rather than mass journalists that may or may not care.

i was more mad about no bayo 3 news than no smash news seriously platinum does the game even exist? or did dmc v make you rework some stuff?

 

[epicmartin7]

In terms of fighter planning, I think Fighters Pass 2 was planned alongside Fighters Pass 1. My reasoning is based of the Max CSS Hypothesis.

I think Nintendo, back in 2018, created a roadmap of 15 characters they would like to fill those placeholders. They would be characters that would fit their projected business strategy in the future.

Then, as a Fighters Pass became successful, they would greenlight another one. They would also negotiate the rights to the characters that were on the roadmap around the same time they decided another pass.

I think this hypothetical explanation explains why certain Mii costumes are missing, even nearly the end of the first fighters pass. And I also think it explains why they pushed Rex as a Mii costume rather than DLC, as Nintendo had a list that intertwined with their economic system since the beginning. Meaning all of it was already picked out in their mind.

Again, this is only hypothetical, and is only one of the many untestable solutions from the Max CSS Hypothesis. But I do think it explains a lot. Of course, there's alternative explanations as well. But I think it's an interesting notion to think about.

 

[TheAJJohnson]

I just told myself, "At least Kos-mos or Reimu wasn't announced." and then I felt better.

I can always count on Dr. House to deliver great lines in this thread.

But for real. KOS-MOS or Reimu or any other not-mainstream picks will be fun to play as because Sakurai is great at his job, but I'd rather actually be excited about the newcomers we get. Sure, I get that these fringe picks have fans and yes, they probably have great source material and incredible moveset potential. However, for the other 12 million of us that bought the game, I'd venture to say that we'd really like to see someone we know. It doesn't even have to be someone we like, really, just someone we know. Heck, I've started to want Crash even though I've never played any of his games (or wanted to) solely because I understand the...let's call it "epic-ness"...of his potential inclusion. Can you see it now? Mario vs. Sonic vs. Pac-Man vs. Banjo and Kazooie vs. Mega Man vs. Crash. It's the kind of crap that would give 10-years-younger-me a gamer-gasm.

I think a Geno or Doomguy type of character would be best to end off the pack. I think Sakurai can hit a fine balance of nostalgia, awe, popularity, epic and WTF with the FP of he did. I feel like a KOS-MOS or Reimu kind of pick would be better left to modders.

 

[TwiceEXE]

I can always count on Dr. House to deliver great lines in this thread.

But for real. KOS-MOS or Reimu or any other not-mainstream picks will be fun to play as because Sakurai is great at his job, but I'd rather actually be excited about the newcomers we get. Sure, I get that these fringe picks have fans and yes, they probably have great source material and incredible moveset potential. However, for the other 12 million of us that bought the game, I'd venture to say that we'd really like to see someone we know. It doesn't even have to be someone we like, really, just someone we know. Heck, I've started to want Crash even though I've never played any of his games (or wanted to) solely because I understand the...let's call it "epic-ness"...of his potential inclusion. Can you see it now? Mario vs. Sonic vs. Pac-Man vs. Banjo and Kazooie vs. Mega Man vs. Crash. It's the kind of crap that would give 10-years-younger-me a gamer-gasm.

I think a Geno or Doomguy type of character would be best to end off the pack. I think Sakurai can hit a fine balance of nostalgia, awe, popularity, epic and WTF with the FP of he did. I feel like a KOS-MOS or Reimu kind of pick would be better left to modders.

Ahh yes we shouldn't have niche characters added as DLC we should have... *checks notes* a side character from a spin-off game on the SNES from 20 years ago?

 

[RealLuigisWearPink]

I think people underestimate Geno's importance in SMRPG. He's obviously not the main character but it's his goals that largely drive the plot

(he's still definitely on the obscurer side of picks though)

 

[GKMLTTSB]

I think a Geno or Doomguy type of character would be best to end off the pack. I think Sakurai can hit a fine balance of nostalgia, awe, popularity, epic and WTF with the FP of he did. I feel like a KOS-MOS or Reimu kind of pick would be better left to modders.

Not fringe + Geno = ???

But that aside, I'm on the opposite end of the spectrum.
Most 'mainstream' candidates are just going to elicit a reaction of, "OK, let's ignore this and immediately focus on what could be coming next instead" from me.
There are some I'd understand and I wouldn't really begrudge them as they're perfectly reasonable and in many ways deserve to be in, but in general I personally wouldn't care about them either. So I'd like to see characters that either expand the reach of franchises or simply bring them back into the public eye.

 

[Night Gale]

Gale assumed that the topic was going to be active af once it reopened, but she was wrong.

This is both the aftermath of one s***storm and the calm before another.

 

[Sysreq]

Gale assumed that the topic was going to be active af once it reopened, but she was wrong.

This is both the aftermath of one s***storm and the calm before another.

Is the second ****storm January?

 

[Night Gale]

Is the second ****storm January?

I think it's some time next week at the latest. It doesn't take long for mofos to get bored and create and share elaborate hoaxes. I've already witnessed a s***load and I've been here for a little over a month.

I also believe that Nintendo just wanted to f*** with us for a moment. I expect a reveal very soon.

 

[TheAJJohnson]

Not fringe + Geno = ???

Ahh yes we shouldn't have niche characters added as DLC we should have... *checks notes* a side character from a spin-off game on the SNES from 20 years ago?

I can see how you guys are thinking, "Oh good...oh wait...what?" Let me clarify my thinking.

The two characters I mentioned are, in my mind, representative of two different sides of the same coin. However, this only applies to Smash and not to gaming as a whole.

Geno isn't at all a gaming icon or impactful character on the industry. He's really, more or less, a fart in the wind. However, when it comes to Nintendo fans, that's a different story. When it comes to Smash fans, it's a way different story. The dude has been topping fan request charts since Brawl and hasn't ever gone away. He's someone that I honestly believe will be hoped for until he's in. His fan base is quite large for such a one-off character. I don't think it's a "loud minority" kind of situation either. Heck, I want him in too. He's popular, but in a Smash kind of way. I think Isaac, Shadow, Banjo and Kazooie, King K. Rool, and Ridley all fit into this category.

Doomguy is the other kind of popular. He's an icon. He comes from a franchise that changed the face of gaming. He's someone that other gamers will be brought to Smash because of. He's one of the characters that actually comes up in generic Google searches. With these guys though, I feel like their bus kind of comes and goes. Doomguy wasn't talked about in Brawl or Sm4sh. For the Smash community, he's not a "must-have". But when people start talking about him, we start thinking, "Hey yeah...that would be kind of cool." He's popular in the broader sense. This is where Sora, Mega Man, Ryu, Simon, and Crash fall.

Going back to Reimu...at least for me as a western gamer...she's definitely a "who?" for both of these areas. I wasn't even aware she existed until someone said she was in a leak. That should speak volumes to her popularity in both realms, and I'm pretty involved in Smash. I know KOS-MOS, but she's still pretty similar. I admit my exposure to certain franchises is limited in the west, and I recognize I haven't played every game on the planet. However, I want to actually know the last DLC character so I can be excited about it.

 

[Night Gale]

Kim Kardashian is also famous for being famous. Just saying.

Anywho, the new No More Heroes trailer seems to be one of the popular ones of the Award Show. What do you all think of Travis? Particularly people who are unfamiliar with the series.

 

[Dalek_Kolt]

Kim Kardashian is also famous for being famous. Just saying.

Anywho, the new No More Heroes trailer seems to be one of the popular ones of the Award Show. What do you all think of Travis? Particularly people who are unfamiliar with the series.

On one hand, the fact that they in the past had to ask fans to campaign for Travis in Smash implies that he's not in.
On the other hand, they love subverting expectations and pulling the rug from their fans.
Either way, I feel that he's at least a good post-pass bet.

 

[osby]

I can see how you guys are thinking, "Oh good...oh wait...what?" Let me clarify my thinking.

The two characters I mentioned are, in my mind, representative of two different sides of the same coin. However, this only applies to Smash and not to gaming as a whole.

Geno isn't at all a gaming icon or impactful character on the industry. He's really, more or less, a fart in the wind. However, when it comes to Nintendo fans, that's a different story. When it comes to Smash fans, it's a way different story. The dude has been topping fan request charts since Brawl and hasn't ever gone away. He's someone that I honestly believe will be hoped for until he's in. His fan base is quite large for such a one-off character. I don't think it's a "loud minority" kind of situation either. Heck, I want him in too. He's popular but in a Smash kind of way. I think Isaac, Shadow, Banjo and Kazooie, King K. Rool, and Ridley all fit into this category.

Doomguy is the other kind of popular. He's an icon. He comes from a franchise that changed the face of gaming. He's someone that other gamers will be brought to Smash because of. He's one of the characters that actually comes up in generic Google searches. With these guys though, I feel like their bus kind of comes and goes. Doomguy wasn't talked about in Brawl or Sm4sh. For the Smash community, he's not a "must-have". But when people start talking about him, we start thinking, "Hey yeah...that would be kind of cool." He's popular in the broader sense. This is where Sora, Mega Man, Ryu, Simon, and Crash fall.

Going back to Reimu...at least for me as a western gamer...she's definitely a "who?" for both of these areas. I wasn't even aware she existed until someone said she was in a leak. That should speak volumes to her popularity in both realms, and I'm pretty involved in Smash. I know KOS-MOS, but she's still pretty similar. I admit my exposure to certain franchises is limited in the west, and I recognize I haven't played every game on the planet. However, I want to actually know the last DLC character so I can be excited about it.

We have only 1 Smash bubble pick () and 0 huge Western icons in the Fighter's Pass. You do you but obviously your standards don't mean much to Nintendo and Sakurai.

 

[Blade of Evil's Bane]

I don't want a 2nd Ganondorf, but I definitely DO want a Ganondorf that's not a CF clone...

Floating Ganondorf when?

Probably never... or maybe in Smash 6.

I doubt we'll get a Zelda newcomer, to be completely honest, but the franchise already got plenty of new stuff in Ultimate, sick character rework and redesigns, Young Link came back, we got a BotW stage, this absolute banger etc. So far, DLC seem focused on 3rd party characters (not that it's a "rule", just the current tendency). Also, the most popular Zelda candidates in the Smash fanbase (from what i've seen, Midna and Skull Kid) are currently Assist Trophies (+ Mii Costume for Skull Kid) and so far, we have yet to see an assist trophy "upgrade". Basically, not impossible but pretty unlikely imo.

 

[Sour Supreme]

Okay but
Earthworm Jim

 

[Dalek_Kolt]

It's in my signature so I barely bring it up, but Classic/Trident/Angry Blue Pig Ganon would be a good compromise between those who want a unique Ganon and those who want Falcondorf in his current form, and his design is drastically different enough that he wouldn't be considered just "another Ganondorf" like the Wind Waker version or the Mage Ganondorf mod for Project M.
Really the only thing that could stop him is that Ganon is currently a boss, but the Trident design is different enough from the Ocarina design that putting him in wouldn't be that confusing.

 

[cosmicB]

I can see how you guys are thinking, "Oh good...oh wait...what?" Let me clarify my thinking.

The two characters I mentioned are, in my mind, representative of two different sides of the same coin. However, this only applies to Smash and not to gaming as a whole.

Geno isn't at all a gaming icon or impactful character on the industry. He's really, more or less, a fart in the wind. However, when it comes to Nintendo fans, that's a different story. When it comes to Smash fans, it's a way different story. The dude has been topping fan request charts since Brawl and hasn't ever gone away. He's someone that I honestly believe will be hoped for until he's in. His fan base is quite large for such a one-off character. I don't think it's a "loud minority" kind of situation either. Heck, I want him in too. He's popular, but in a Smash kind of way. I think Isaac, Shadow, Banjo and Kazooie, King K. Rool, and Ridley all fit into this category.

Doomguy is the other kind of popular. He's an icon. He comes from a franchise that changed the face of gaming. He's someone that other gamers will be brought to Smash because of. He's one of the characters that actually comes up in generic Google searches. With these guys though, I feel like their bus kind of comes and goes. Doomguy wasn't talked about in Brawl or Sm4sh. For the Smash community, he's not a "must-have". But when people start talking about him, we start thinking, "Hey yeah...that would be kind of cool." He's popular in the broader sense. This is where Sora, Mega Man, Ryu, Simon, and Crash fall.

Going back to Reimu...at least for me as a western gamer...she's definitely a "who?" for both of these areas. I wasn't even aware she existed until someone said she was in a leak. That should speak volumes to her popularity in both realms, and I'm pretty involved in Smash. I know KOS-MOS, but she's still pretty similar. I admit my exposure to certain franchises is limited in the west, and I recognize I haven't played every game on the planet. However, I want to actually know the last DLC character so I can be excited about it.

I don't think Sakurai cares if a person here or there has a "who?" reaction to the characters he picks. Hero and Terry represent franchises that have had a profound effect on gaming, yet a chunk of the western world went "who!?" with them. The legacies of characters like Banjo and Geno are super overstated and very smash Bubbly. I'd argue Reimu is more iconic then both of those combined, even if you have to combine all regions to do it. Things like almost single-handedly helping the doujin scene flourish is only a few levels below Dragon Quest being such a phenomenon that rumors about the game only being legally allowed to release on the weekends started making the rounds.

I imagine he also wants to introduce people to the series he cares about, or else he wouldn't have spent 40 minutes talking about his love of KoF/SNK in general.

 

[DarthEnderX]

Floating Ganondorf when?

Never, because Hyrule Warriors Ganondorf w/ Trident exists.

 

[Barrubo]

I don't think Sakurai cares if a person here or there has a "who?" reaction to the characters he picks. Hero and Terry represent franchises that have had a profound effect on gaming, yet a chunk of the western world went "who!?" with them. The legacies of characters like Banjo and Geno are super overstated and very smash Bubbly. I'd argue Reimu is more iconic then both of those combined, even if you have to combine all regions to do it. Things like almost single-handedly helping the doujin scene flourish is only a few levels below Dragon Quest being such a phenomenon that rumors about the game only being legally allowed to release on the weekends started making the rounds.

I imagine he also wants to introduce people to the series he cares about, or else he wouldn't have spent 40 minutes talking about his love of KoF/SNK in general.

At least someone knows how good the series touhou is. I was getting a bit tired of hearing people say that they dont know who she is so that must mean that Reimu must be not that well known much.

 

[DarthEnderX]

I was getting a bit tired of hearing people say that they dont know who she is so that must mean that Reimu must be not that well known much.

I mean, that IS how not being that well known works.

 

[Barrubo]

I mean, that IS how not being that well known works.

I know but what I'm trying to say is that while they dont know who she is that doesnt mean she is not. Like when they talk about her they make it seem like the game series is nothing but wifues (sorry dont know how to spell that.) and that the fanarts are nothing but porn.
While I know that some people dont know and I respect that. But what I cant respect is a complete misunderstanding they have on Touhou.

I know that the people in this thread may not be like that but I have seen numeral people that have said things like that without even looking at Touhou.

 

[Ben Holt]

Never, because Hyrule Warriors Ganondorf w/ Trident exists.

To be fair, Ganondorf with a trident was a thing WAY before Hyrule Warriors.
Hell, I'd say it's BY FAR his most iconic weapon as a whole.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

It's in my signature so I barely bring it up, but Classic/Trident/Angry Blue Pig Ganon would be a good compromise between those who want a unique Ganon and those who want Falcondorf in his current form, and his design is drastically different enough that he wouldn't be considered just "another Ganondorf" like the Wind Waker version or the Mage Ganondorf mod for Project M.
Really the only thing that could stop him is that Ganon is currently a boss, but the Trident design is different enough from the Ocarina design that putting him in wouldn't be that confusing.

Well, it helps that Pig Ganon and the boss aren't even the same shape or size. They're so widely different it wouldn't matter at that point. That, and he's more of a mage than Ganondorf is generally(and also was the core weapon user of the two. He used swords before Ganondorf too).

I do wish he'd get in. Though to be fair, Toon Ganondorf is wildly different from the other ones anyway. "Mage" Ganondorf is pretty much just another way of redoing the current Ganondorf, though it's really a thing only in OOT anyway. He barely was magical beyond that(throwing magical punches/kicks isn't that bad either, since it fits how he's meant to be all about "power" anyway).

 

[GKMLTTSB]

Eh... I think the only way I'd really be down for another Ganon would be if they specifically make it the Four Swords Adventures incarnation.

Even then, I'd rather have Skull Kid or Vaati from the villains side.