Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[Rie Sonomura]

Tbh tho

remember how all of Smash 4’s newcomer DLC were third party (Ryu, Cloud, Bayonetta) EXCEPT for the one (Corrin)?

calling it - we will get the one Nintendo character to close out the pass

and I still say it’s Elma. Spring Man is an Assist Trophy, and Rex is a Mii Costume, which doesn’t bode well for Legionis from Astral Chain or anyone from Three Houses. Octoling (Octo Expansion) MIGHT be exempt if they’re an Echo or Semi-clone, they’d probably use some Inkling assets anyway

ALSO, the fact Rex’s costume opened the pass and Sakurai apologized for not including him as playable....

...makes me think we’ll get a DIFFERENT Xenoblade rep not from 2 or Torna as playable to book-end the Pass.

Fiora is a possibility; she was prominent in Xenoblade’s marketing, appears in Shulk’s Final Smash (and if you think that hurts her chances just look at Chrom), AND she appeared in Project X Zone 2 along with Smash alums Chrom, Lucina, Ryu and Ken. Most notably she was chosen OVER Shulk to represent Xenoblade there, AND she’s in all her spoilery glory just like in Shulk’s FS.


However... there’s another that sticks out like a sore thumb. That’s right, I’m talking Elma from Xenoblade X. The game sold amazingly well for a Wii U game (which the Wii U totally did it dirty; XCXDE when??), she was included in Xenoblade 2’s expansion pass AND has a full trailer unlike Shulk and Fiora; and there’s the mech figure, Hiroyuki Sawano’s secret project and Caitlin Glass’s NDA, which we STILL don’t know what either of those are for. and then there’s her being a Spirit. She might be the first Spirit to Playable promotion since 1. Elma is listed under general Xenoblade Chronicles; all the 2 Spirits are listed under Xenoblade Chronicles 2. And second, she isn’t found in WoL and will not appear on the Spirit Board until you free 50 fighters in WoL. And of course, Xenoblade 2 has music but X doesn’t.

could go either way but my money is more on Elma right now... cause you know what they say

The wind blows hard in December...

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Just depends on whether or not Game Freak plans on promoting it and Sakurai feels comfortable adding it. Most of the Pokemon on the roster are either extremely iconic or a form of a starter for a reason.

*looks into SwoShi content and datamines* Oh Game Freak wants to promote it alright

 

[Deleted member]

Just depends on whether or not Game Freak plans on promoting it and Sakurai feels comfortable adding it. Most of the Pokemon on the roster are either extremely iconic or a form of a starter for a reason.

Given that they give you a Toxel for free after the first gym, it has 2 different forms and a Gigantimax, and it seems to be relatively popular, I could see it happening
Probably not this game but maybe in Smash 6

 

[Deleted member]

Tbh tho

remember how all of Smash 4’s newcomer DLC were third party (Ryu, Cloud, Bayonetta) EXCEPT for the one (Corrin)?

calling it - we will get the one Nintendo character to close out the pass

and I still say it’s Elma. Spring Man is an Assist Trophy, and Rex is a Mii Costume, which doesn’t bode well for Legionis from Astral Chain or anyone from Three Houses. Octoling (Octo Expansion) MIGHT be exempt if they’re an Echo or Semi-clone, they’d probably use some Inkling assets anyway

ALSO, the fact Rex’s costume opened the pass and Sakurai apologized for not including him as playable....

...makes me think we’ll get a DIFFERENT Xenoblade rep not from 2 or Torna as playable to book-end the Pass.

Fiora is a possibility; she was prominent in Xenoblade’s marketing, appears in Shulk’s Final Smash (and if you think that hurts her chances just look at Chrom), AND she appeared in Project X Zone 2 along with Smash alums Chrom, Lucina, Ryu and Ken. Most notably she was chosen OVER Shulk to represent Xenoblade there, AND she’s in all her spoilery glory just like in Shulk’s FS.


However... there’s another that sticks out like a sore thumb. That’s right, I’m talking Elma from Xenoblade X. The game sold amazingly well for a Wii U game (which the Wii U totally did it dirty; XCXDE when??), she was included in Xenoblade 2’s expansion pass AND has a full trailer unlike Shulk and Fiora; and there’s the mech figure, Hiroyuki Sawano’s secret project and Caitlin Glass’s NDA, which we STILL don’t know what either of those are for. and then there’s her being a Spirit. She might be the first Spirit to Playable promotion since 1. Elma is listed under general Xenoblade Chronicles; all the 2 Spirits are listed under Xenoblade Chronicles 2. And second, she isn’t found in WoL and will not appear on the Spirit Board until you free 50 fighters in WoL. And of course, Xenoblade 2 has music but X doesn’t.

could go either way but my money is more on Elma right now... cause you know what they say

The wind blows hard in December...

Elma would be awesome to get in Smash, ngl.

 

[BlackInk]

Just depends on whether or not Game Freak plans on promoting it and Sakurai feels comfortable adding it. Most of the Pokemon on the roster are either extremely iconic or a form of a starter for a reason.

That thing is a purposeful meme. They made him available from an egg very early in the game. Don’t you remember Lucario’s egg?

 

[Michael the Spikester]

Tbh tho

remember how all of Smash 4’s newcomer DLC were third party (Ryu, Cloud, Bayonetta) EXCEPT for the one (Corrin)?

calling it - we will get the one Nintendo character to close out the pass

and I still say it’s Elma. Spring Man is an Assist Trophy, and Rex is a Mii Costume, which doesn’t bode well for Legionis from Astral Chain or anyone from Three Houses. Octoling (Octo Expansion) MIGHT be exempt if they’re an Echo or Semi-clone, they’d probably use some Inkling assets anyway

ALSO, the fact Rex’s costume opened the pass and Sakurai apologized for not including him as playable....

...makes me think we’ll get a DIFFERENT Xenoblade rep not from 2 or Torna as playable to book-end the Pass.

Fiora is a possibility; she was prominent in Xenoblade’s marketing, appears in Shulk’s Final Smash (and if you think that hurts her chances just look at Chrom), AND she appeared in Project X Zone 2 along with Smash alums Chrom, Lucina, Ryu and Ken. Most notably she was chosen OVER Shulk to represent Xenoblade there, AND she’s in all her spoilery glory just like in Shulk’s FS.


However... there’s another that sticks out like a sore thumb. That’s right, I’m talking Elma from Xenoblade X. The game sold amazingly well for a Wii U game (which the Wii U totally did it dirty; XCXDE when??), she was included in Xenoblade 2’s expansion pass AND has a full trailer unlike Shulk and Fiora; and there’s the mech figure, Hiroyuki Sawano’s secret project and Caitlin Glass’s NDA, which we STILL don’t know what either of those are for. and then there’s her being a Spirit. She might be the first Spirit to Playable promotion since 1. Elma is listed under general Xenoblade Chronicles; all the 2 Spirits are listed under Xenoblade Chronicles 2. And second, she isn’t found in WoL and will not appear on the Spirit Board until you free 50 fighters in WoL. And of course, Xenoblade 2 has music but X doesn’t.

could go either way but my money is more on Elma right now... cause you know what they say

The wind blows hard in December...

In b4 we instead get another Fire Emblem rep (Despite having already 7 and Xenoblade having only 1) like Byleth...

God I hope for Elma though.

 

[BlackInk]

In b4 we instead get another Fire Emblem rep (Despite having already 7 and Xenoblade having only 1) like Byleth...

God I hope for Elma though.

But Chrom is top dad and top Chad. Don’t complain about him!

 

[SKX31]

Hear me out
With Sony, Microsoft and Nintendo all Friends
Imagine this at the VGA

[Image removed for mobile users]

I so would pay megabucks for that. Because I support Sakurai's mission to disregard the console wars.

Imo the disconfirmation spree is much better than actually knowing who it's gonna be. It allows us to hone speculation better, while also stopping fans from getting high hopes if their character won't get in, but it doesn't spoil the surprise for the fans of the lucky one.

In a world in which leaks are unavoidable, this is the better alternative imo.

Yeah, there are also leaks which turn out to be precise (looking at you, Tencent) so it's probably for the best to at least entertain the idea. Also, it refreshes the speculation and helps people learn about characters not in the limelight.

Also, I'm bringing up Tencent since I have some new pieces of (not officially confirmed, so could still be wrong, but really looking convincing) info:

The image not only supports the Chinese box leak (here), but also has December 10th (adding credibility to a certain rumor I've talked about) as its release date there. Also worthy of note is that MK8DX is shown on this flyer (another flyer, here, shows Peachs' Mario Tennis Aces render). As far as I'm aware neither MK8DX nor Tennis Aces have been officially shown there before.

People there are also talking about the price: 2099 yuan ($300, same as the US) and there being no hardware differences between the Chinese and the international versions. As well as the Switch possibly being free from any region locks. While this might not come true at all in the end, the Chinese release might come very soon. And along with it, probably a presentation.

If MK8DX and / or Tennis Aces is shown at the probable presentation, I could definetely see Smash - even FP5 - be shown there. FP5 is likely contingent on there being more annouced games at the presentation and there being an international mirror. So while unlikely, I'm harping on it since we shouldn't count out the possibility.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Given that they give you a Toxel for free after the first gym, it has 2 different forms and a Gigantimax, and it seems to be relatively popular, I could see it happening
Probably not this game but maybe in Smash 6

Naaaah Smash 6 would need to come out next year for that to be the case as Gen 9 will come out in 3 years at most judging by the TPC's pattern

 

[Deleted member]

In b4 we instead get another Fire Emblem rep (Despite having already 7 and Xenoblade having only 1) like Byleth...

God I hope for Elma though.

This reminds me.

Today I was looking at the first likes I was given on this site, and remembered you are a Xenoblade fan or at least enjoy the games.

Basically because some of my first likes came from a post that went basically like:

Elma is better than Rex

And you were one of the persons who liked the post.

It was cool to remember that.

 

[I.D.]

Rex Mii costume apology bla bla bla

Most of this circumstancial evidence and reasoning also got applied to KOS-MOS, how did that one work out? I don't know why it's so hard to believe that yes, Sakurai indeed locked Rex' mii behind a 25 buck paywall without thinking much of it, for some reason a lot of people on this forum seems to be under the delusion that Nintendo thinks very highly of MonolithSoft when in reality they mostly just use them as an extra source of manpower for whatever titles they need help with, their own games be damned.

 

[Lamperouge]

I still think Rex is way more likely to be upgraded than Elma assuming that such a thing will even occur post-pass, but I wouldn't mind seeing her since I feel Xenoblade could do with another character by now anyway.

Mecha-Fiora would be an absolute dream come true for me, too.

 

[Dukemon102]

I'm seeing Rex being the first post Pass character announced.
It feels like that he is the one character that was left out of the plan that Sakurai wants to create as soon as possible.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Most of this circumstancial evidence and reasoning also got applied to KOS-MOS, how did that one work out? I don't know why it's so hard to believe that yes, Sakurai indeed locked Rex' mii behind a 25 buck paywall without thinking much of it, for some reason a lot of people on this forum seems to be under the delusion that Nintendo thinks very highly of MonolithSoft when in reality they mostly just use them as an extra source of manpower for whatever titles they need help with, their own games be damned.

Thing is KOS-MOS isn’t from Xenoblade but Xenosaga which is owned by Bandai Namco, not Nintendo.

 

[BlackInk]

Most of this circumstancial evidence and reasoning also got applied to KOS-MOS, how did that one work out? I don't know why it's so hard to believe that yes, Sakurai indeed locked Rex' mii behind a 25 buck paywall without thinking much of it, for some reason a lot of people on this forum seems to be under the delusion that Nintendo thinks very highly of MonolithSoft when in reality they mostly just use them as an extra source of manpower for whatever titles they need help with, their own games be damned.

A ****ing 0.75$ constellation costume behind a 25$ pay wall is actually one of the worst ****ing things I have ever seen for a disconfirmed fighter, ever! I thought Kos-Mos had to be there because the crap with Rex was too ridiculous that I had to think “they should know better”. How did no one make any memes of it?

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

I think the fact that the DLC was decided prior to release puts any potential upgrade at a very low probability.

After all, Piranha Plant was originally planned for base roster and didn't have a spirit until he was actually in Smash. With 4/5 picks already entirely new to Smash, why would they add a character suddenly entirely different in that regard? For Elma, she obviously comes from a game that isn't entirely represented, but she's already crossing over, playable or not.

It should also be clarified that Corrin wasn't added just to add them: They were specifically decided upon as a character from a newer game. Thus far, the only games similar to that are Astral Chain (which has zero content in Smash at this point and therefore could work like the other 4 packs) or Three Houses. With XCX, for example, it's not a new game. It doesn't fit the same description unfortunately.

The upgrade idea, to me, is entirely hypothetical for post-pass, but is again, to me, not that likely for Pick 5.

I could be wrong though. Only a matter of time until somebody else gets shot down as far as I'm concerned.

EDIT: Let’s be honest, if we say it works for one character then it works for essentially all characters made into spirits.

We might want to support potential options and there’s nothing wrong with that. Just keep that in mind.

 

[I.D.]

Thing is KOS-MOS isn’t from Xenoblade but Xenosaga which is owned by Bandai Namco, not Nintendo.

Is that supposed to make Elma sound more likely when the entire pass has been third party?

 

[Michael the Spikester]

Still think FP5 is gonna be 3rd party given the other four.

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

If Rex isn't in this pass, his chances go way down, because then it really would be paying for him twice (unless the costume is made free later).

 

[GoodGrief741]

I really don't follow the logic that because Sakurai apologized for Rex not being in, that somehow means another Xenoblade character is FP5. Sakurai apologized for Rex because he's one of the most popular newcomer requests, I don't really see the train of thought that leads from that to another newcomer.

If Rex isn't in this pass, his chances go way down, because then it really would be paying for him twice (unless the costume is made free later).

Yeah, because the people willing to fork over $0.75 for Rex are going to be pissed at seeing him playable.

 

[MooMew64]

The popularity or "hugeness" of a character makes no impact on if they're leaked or not.

Just be patient.

You're askin' the impossible, Jones.

The answer is out there, I just have to connect all the dots! Sakurai is a madman, a genius! IT ALL CONNECTS, JONES! THERE ARE CLUES EVERYWHERE!

Spoiler

 

[BlackInk]

Hit like if you think the leaked fighter is from a indie thing? I’m being serious. We have over 70 users around who read these post and I’m trying to gather up some data.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Is that supposed to make Elma sound more likely when the entire pass has been third party?

Have you seen the third party deconfirmation bloodbath lately? It shifted from individual characters to FULL ON COMPANIES.

At this point, the only companies likely to have a character for FP5 are Capcom (doubtful due to the RE Spirits and Proto Man & Zero costumes), Arc System Works, a bunch of smaller companies unlikely to have a rep like Spike Chunsoft, and Nintendo themselves.

 

[Guynamednelson]

If Rex isn't in this pass, his chances go way down, because then it really would be paying for him twice (unless the costume is made free later).

But why would the Rex costume and the actual Rex be in the same pass? Plus, you're not paying for that costume with the pass, you're paying for the actual characters.

 

[MooMew64]

Honestly, people are mad sleepin' on Astral Chain.

Platinum period is kind of being ignored.

 

[SNEKeater]

Hit like if you think the leaked fighter is from a indie thing? I’m being serious. We have over 70 users around who read these post and I’m trying to gather up some data.

I don't think FP5 is an indie character. Not saying we won't get an indie character for post-pass DLC, but I don't feel it would be the next fighter.
Maybe time will prove me wrong, of course. We don't know.

 

[I.D.]

Have you seen the third party deconfirmation bloodbath lately? It shifted from individual characters to FULL ON COMPANIES.

There are more than a dozen videogame companies in the world.

 

[BlackInk]

Honestly, people are mad sleepin' on Astral Chain.

Platinum period is kind of being ignored.

it’s better to look into early switch stuff for answers.

 

[Cosmic77]

I think Rex is fair game post pass, but there's little reason to expect him as Fighter #5.

Fighter #5 was orginally the end of Ultimate's DLC, and if the DLC for the pass was decided before work even began, why bother giving fans a Rex costume and apologizing for his absence?

 

[PhantomShab]

I'd love to see the community's reaction if Fighter #5 was Zacian

My reaction would be something like this.

 

[Dr. Jojo Phantasma]

Honestly, people are mad sleepin' on Astral Chain.

Platinum period is kind of being ignored.

I was thinking of it, but if Sakurai said that it was too late for Rex who was in a 2017 game to make the cut then it is probably unlikely someone from a 2019 game like Byleth or Akira could be character 5.

 

[MooMew64]

it’s better to look into early switch stuff for answers.

There's no answers to find, though. This thread has reached Sonic Twitter "More clues" levels of conspiracy, lol.

ATM, we're playing a waiting game with Verge, Sabi, or TGA. If none of those three delivers, we're waiting 'till January.

 

[Cosmic77]

My reaction would be something like this.

And mine would be.

 

[I.D.]

Fighter #5 was orginally the end of Ultimate's DLC, and if the DLC for the pass was decided before work even began, why bother giving fans a Rex costume and apologizing for his absence?

The reasoning is that the "apology" is a really ****ty one, and I honestly agree with that, but at the same time I genuinely think it's in fact just that: a really ****ty apology. Sakurai probably spent more time deciding which Fatal Fury game to recommend on Terry's 45 minute direct than a proper way to compensate Rex not making the cut.

 

[MooMew64]

I was thinking of it, but if Sakurai said that it was too late for Rex who was in a 2017 game to make the cut then it is probably unlikely someone from a 2019 game like Byleth or Akira could be character 5.

That's a pretty valid point. However, I'm not so sure this is a hard rule with DLC, as Sakurai added in Corrin before his game came out outside Japan, so I could easily see Astral Chain being our planned ahead promotional pick if we're sticking with 3rd parties. Three Houses would honestly make a lot of sense too.

That said, I don't think it is the most likely option. I'm still placing all my bets on 2B or Reimu ATM.

 

[BlackInk]

The reasoning is that the "apology" is a really ****ty one, and I honestly agree with that, but at the same time I honestly think it's in fact just that: a really ****ty apology.

Almost everything with Rex was just awful. All they literally had to do was putting his costume in the base game or as minor-priced dlc.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

There are more than a dozen videogame companies in the world.

Ok, but a lot of companies that would have a character considered for Smash are out of the running for FP5. Idk about you but I can’t really imagine a Rockstar IP character (unpopular in Japan), Idea Factory character (relatively obscure and some may not be CERO friendly), or some other indie character being FP5. And as much as I would LOVE Gunvolt (IntiCreates), I acknowledge that realistically he’s a pipe dream.

 

[BlackInk]

Ok, but a lot of companies that would have a character considered for Smash are out of the running for FP5. Idk about you but I can’t really imagine a Rockstar IP character (unpopular in Japan), Idea Factory character (relatively obscure and some may not be CERO friendly), or some other indie character being FP5. And as much as I would LOVE Gunvolt (IntiCreates), I acknowledge that realistically he’s a pipe dream.

I find a lot shocking stuff for Hollow Knight once I consider their possibility.

 

[venomthebest]

Ok so been thinking a lot about about fp5 and all that has "come out" about it and I think that MegaMan X could possibly be it! When they added the protoman and zero costumes back in but not the three MegaMan costumes, I was a bit suspicious/confused. Yes I know that MegaMan is already in the game but I have one word to say to that..... Link. But luckily X has a completely different arsenal to pick from classic MegaMan, so u wouldn't need to worry about X being a clone of MegaMan. But it's just a thought.

 

[Souless_shadow]

The reasoning is that the "apology" is a really ****ty one, and I honestly agree with that, but at the same time I genuinely think it's in fact just that: a really ****ty apology. Sakurai probably spent more time deciding which Fatal Fury game to recommend on Terry's 45 minute direct than a proper way to compensate Rex not making the cut.

But why does Sakurai even owe an apology for Rex not making the cut? Its not like we were promised Rex and then it didn't happen. Sakurai could have not said anything about Rex at all