ok rake. i will give you my scum read.
Vote:Orboknow
and here is why.
orboknown has 976 posts on smashboards. assuming that most of these are from mafia games and given his reputation for not posting much and for him admitting to being a lazy poster in his first post (#158), i imagine that he has played this game enough to pick up some very good tactics. one of which, he is using on us now. this is what he is doing.
Day 1. i am inclined to believe that he was being lazy then. he admitted to being in a different game at the same time and was having dificulty keeping up with ours at the time. he probably assumed that there was little chance we would get his scum buddy on day one so he let it ride. so what did he not count on? us lynching badwolf. red scum died on day one. orbo didnt become very active untill later on in the day. by the time he got to concentrate on us, dave had been tunneled into infinity. so what does he do? he tries to muster up some suspicion here and there to distract the angry mob from badwulf (he never pushed anybody too hard. just little things that never took off). in fact, he talked about trying to find links between people and just said he wasnt too good at it. imo, he was talking about yellow scum because it would be more likely that there would be a weak link in the yellow scum than the red scum, considering that both of them have experience. and when that didnt work he did the only thing he could do. he jumped on the bus. he never provides any points for this. in fact, the first and last time he mentions badwulf in a post is when he votes him. he never says, yeah vinyl, i agree with you or, thats a good point there. he just says that we need 7 to lynch so he votes badwulf. at this point, badwulf is dead and he goes into the night phase.
Night 1. so he would he kill? its hard to tell. a non frequent poster has a hard time making enemies. so he has to kill a person who might start to look into them. you wouldn't catch it untill you found out that J died. in post 460 he called J the most dangerous player in the game. he even puts it in quotation marks to backdoor his theory so that when he killed J, he could back out of the suspicion if anybody quoted it. by killing J, he kills the only person that would ever suspect him in his mind, given how ell J plays this game. he killed off his only threat and then slumped back into the shadows for the next day...
Day 2 - seeing as he didnt post too much in day 1, he decided to play the rest of the day as a non active member. he stayed back and decided to see how the rest of the day would go. by doing this, he could claim that he was lazy in the begining and then later on he could get more involved in the game and play more risky under the ruse that since he wasnt active at first, he couldnt possible have a complicated endgame and therefore would be able to sit in the back of everybody's minds while we went after each other. for his last post in day 2, 8 people had already casted their votes so even if he voted then, he would not be suspicious. but he cant risk doing the same thing he did at day 1 again with a bandwagon and no support. any way, day 2 gets really interesting with a lot of accusations flying around and a lot of different opinions and its generally very intense most of the time. orbo posts some in the begining and then lays off. the 2 big people on day 2 were Kary and rake. they duke it out for a while and in the end, its a tie. the vote is tied 4 to 4 for 2.5 hours before the mod declares the day to be over. this would have given Orbo time to see that there would be a tie. all he had to do is sit back and not vote. if he doesnt vote, then its a tie and no townies die. but how does that benefit him? hes a red scum. i will tell you. orbo got handed the perfect situation on a silver platter. if he let a townie live, he could say that he didnt want to kill either of them, and thats why he didnt vote. he could say that he had town reads and thought that they were innocent so he helped out the town and that gets him brownie points. so no vote gives him an advantage later for when he plans to become more active.
Night 2. so what now? he still hasnt made any moves. Vinly pushed him a little in 890 but that quicky gets forgotten because thats right before when the game heats up. infact, he goes innactive after that point until just recently today. so who does he kill now? he did the same thing that he did before. he kills a person because of a tiny post. something insignificant that you wouldnt notice unless you looked for it. ranmaru dies. why? post 946. Ranmaru stated before the day was over that not posting is bad because it doesnt benefit the town. so what would he do after we tie? the next day he would make sure that ther were no more ties. orbo could only pull the stunt of liking both the people once. if another day went by with no lynches and he doesnt vote, people will begin to think he is hiding too much and will go after him. he has to kill ranmaru so that this doesnt occur.
3. Day 3 - the epic of kary and clover. the two of them fought it out for a long time before eventually Kary lost and was lynched. for the entire day, Orboknown posts nothing. now why do this? at this point, he has pushed his inactivity to the limit. he cant stall any more after day three and will have to become active so he doesnt get killed off for being so and so that he doesnt get replaced. if he posts nothing on day three then he can come back in with his im-so-sorry-i-will-get-involved-now face on and he can play regular. he would be excused for any little mishap because he would have skimmed 1300 posts. he could push and claim he was innactive. he had 3 days to play this part and now he can enter the game with temporary impunity. im guessing it would last him 2 days or so and by then he could become a more frequent poster and save his own skin. in fact, he even says that posting more is good in post #402. he can now come back in the next day and pull this off. all he has to do is make sure a townie dies and we dont tie again. this is not a problem because Kary is lynched with a large majority.
Night 3. So what now? no new enemies. he doesnt have a good reason for anybody. so now its time to weed out the town and strand the weaker players. specifically, me. before the night started, i said that clover was the only person left that i knew. i had takes some flack but i was not in a dangerous position. by killing clover, i would be stuck with people i had a harder time reading and the person that i accused outright would be dead and would flip town. i have 0 previous posts, so he figured that i would have a hard time defending myself online. with clover dead, all he has to do is wait dor me to be tunneled. which is what he does on day 4...
Day 4. he finally decides to show back up. he can pull the card of being sorry for not posting and he can now become more active and be a player who is very hard to nail down on anything in the endgame because he has several defenses that he can use at his leisure. all he has to do now is jump on my bandwagon. he gets me lynched today with the momentum he created by killing clover and coasts into the next day with even more. all he has to do is get me lynched today and he can pick his targets durring the day from now on. but how could he know all this? nobody ever sees him on the thread and i doubt he wakes up in the morning while were all in bed to check this, so how does he pull off such an elaborate scheme? simple. a second account. right now there are 3 unnamed guests online. there is always at least one. every time i log on there is. he has another profile that he gets his live feed from. he then forms his plan and gets to pretend to be the late joiner who knows little when actually, he has all the info he needs to make a fake case against any of us when he needs too.
im the turning point in this game for him. once im gone he can do whatever he wants. all he had to do was count on me not nailing him. he figured i was new and that i would break down and practically lynch myself after a little while. but now that ive thrown his whole plan to the rest of you, he wont be able to pull it off. even if i die today and you dont believe me, when i flip vanilla town everybody will look at him. your exposed. game over. long live the town.
.
1) posts here don't count mate, I have posted like a bajillion times in this thread and I'm still at zero.
Yes he has mafia experience but being lazy is more of an Orbo town tell for me, he did much the same sorta thing IIRC in Breaking Bad newbie and it took me tunnelling him hardbody in that game to make him reply with big walls / defences. The style of posting he's doing now fits his town meta I have from that game, although I don't trust old meta, so I'll concede it as a null tell.
He didn't push anyone D1 say what ?
And he made points on Badwulf that I have already stated look better than your's do ATM.
http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=14571392&postcount=402
http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=14571515&postcount=409
http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=14571635&postcount=434
http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=14571785&postcount=449
His connection admission was prompted by Ran asking it and really why would a pro-scum Orbo out the fact that he is bad with connections ? As scum you'd wanna hide things your bad at doing so that when you do them bad you can try to pass them off.
So him answering that way comes off as more townie to me, but w/e, difference of opinion.
And then when Kary was under suspicion :
http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=14615893&postcount=872
http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=14616026&postcount=876
he's pushing a really scummy looking Kary at that point and isn't letting him just bring a J scum read out of no where.
IMO if he were red-scum he would have been more likely to jump on board and get me lynched (i was under enough suspicion ) and then next day phase after I flipped town he could paint Kary as scum-tunneling and get him. He did neither of those things, bot of which would have made a red-wincon A LOT easier numbers wise.
Quotations aren't a back door though. When I read that I saw Orbo meaning that scummy J is super dangerous to deal with like in the last newbie they were in together.
Plus as experienced as Orbo is, I don't see him resorting to killing J to cover himself, that would just scream as obvious on re-read, and any good scum wouldn't leave bits like that, yes scum make mistakes but by virtue of Orbo's experience I don't see Red-Scum Orbo making one like that.
I already addressed D2 above, but again it would benefit Orbo more as Red-Scum to push a lynch on either me or Katry to eliminate a town mate, something he doesn't do.
Any good red-scum would have been trying to push one or both of me and Kary.
Ran's 946 was a
IC post about deadlines. And it's very big reaching to say he would kill Ran because of an IC post where Ran is at EVERYONE's throats to use their votes.
And you'll remember that the Cop, Ori CHOOSE to move us into a No lynch scenario, the fact that Orbo wasn't around to vote isn't a Red-scum tell to me and is a pretty big reach IMO.
As for the no more ties thing, town could easily get another No lynch scenario if one of the other member's didn't vote.
Plus day 3 it took 6 to lynch so 3 people on 2 different people would have been another tie.
Day 3 was Zen / Ramen King vs Kary and people were on Kary very quick. (me included).
D3 is also when I got on you.
Zen claimed he was skimming too , and JTB hasn't caught up yet that he's said, despite some inactivity this thread has a legit amount of pages to sift through (a lot of them with like 17 posts by me).
Then Ori was swayed by my post on you and we put you / Clover down as the plays.
Clover actually posted all of once IIRC wrt Kary and his defence looked townie , which is why i gave Clover a null town at that point.
I then hammered Kary.
As for stranding you that's again a stretch, yes I could see Red-scum doing that , but really my theory of how the lynches is a lot more solid which is that Red-Scum have been killing the towniest posters / people who could also be yellow scum.
He hasn't jumped on you yet and really after these last posts by you I doubt people will ride you as much for Red-Scum. I still like you as scum but we'll see what Orbo / JTB do.
Plus Orbo instant jumping you would look hella slimey and I doubt Ori / Me / Zen (especially Ori) wouldn't just let him on your bandwaggon.
Plus with only 3 people on you now, (And Ori having claimed) we aren't going to allow QL's , this Day (Day 4) will be dragged to deadline if Me / Ori / JTB have our way.
nobody ever sees him on the thread and i doubt he wakes up in the morning while were all in bed to check this, so how does he pull off such an elaborate scheme? simple. a second account. right now there are 3 unnamed guests online. there is always at least one. every time i log on there is. he has another profile that he gets his live feed from. he then forms his plan and gets to pretend to be the late joiner who knows little when actually, he has all the info he needs to make a fake case against any of us when he needs too.
Alright this last part is just one big blagh at newbie mis-information
1) You can only have one account per IP and have to get A mod to create anything like a Hydra (me and Orbo have a FullMetalLynch hydra ) so I would see that profile viewing. And it's still on public IIRC so he couldn't be hiding there).
2) Guests are people viewing who aren't logged in and viewing this thread while not logged in isn't scummy, I know I've accidentally done it ( i now just have it remember me).
Plus if he chooses to catch up unlogged in (like at work on his phone on break or w/e) then that is neither scummy / nor townie. Plus an equally likely scenario could be JTB trying to catch up unlogged in.
3) I don't know much about the private profile thing (other players might) but w/e.
Yeah I just defended a null slot but this case was kinda reachy and not that well informed unfortunately IMO.
On a not un-related note: The above case was classic newb town L_L, so I'm really doubting my heavy red-scum percentage on Benjy now. However let's see where it goes , my read on benjy is now: 30 % red scum / 40 % townie / 30% yellow scum.
I still think he's scummy but his posts are looking newb town , but without cop clear everyone / anyone could be red , and even after they could be yellow.
Oh and Orbo is still null for me.
True Story.
