@User33: I think they'll be more then 42-44 characters in the game because of how much more space we have, but it is more reasonable then the 55+ rosters I've seen (Myself included), so I won't count off for that. Beside, if it does end up like that, we'll probably see DLC.
Other then that, the only people I can see from your list not coming are Sheriff (Very unlikely), Issac, and Starfy, both of which could be handheld exclusive.
So based off what you have, I'll give you a 9.5/10, even if I still don't believe in the logic you introduced on your first post is good. Basically everyone except Sheriff has a sizable chance of making it.
@kackamee: He's working with a limited roster, so of course we could expect something like this, especially if his logic that no old characters in existing franchise will make an appearance.
Tomorrow I'm going to present my own character roster. I believe that everyone on my roster has a 60% or more chance of making it into SSB4.