OmegaXXII
Fire Emblem Lord/ Trophy Hunter
Sorry, but I find this difficult to believe and is somewhat disturbing.Ryu - Again, an absolute shoe-in. If they add ANY other 3rd party character is has to be Ryu. When you think fighting games, you think Street Fighter first. Ryu is a big name which comes packaged with big bucks. In fact, he's arguably gaming's number 4 guy right behind Mario, Sonic, & Pikachu. Capcom has no reason not to lend them Ryu for Smash 4. It's free money for Capcom. Absolutely free money. All they have to do is check on the project and make sure Sakurai doesn't tarnish Ryu's good name by making him goofy or out-of-character. The ONLY way that Ryu wouldn't be added into Smash 4 is if Smash 4 directly interferes with the sales figures of a big Capcom game coming out just after Smash 4. But even then they should make that money back and more off Smash 4 so, again, no skin off Capcom's back. No skin off Nintendo's back. Profit all-around.
*Regarding Mega Man: Mega Man's a big name, it has to be said. But Mega Man isn't Capcom's show-pony anymore. Ryu is their mascot. Their Mario. Their time-less character that hasn't really changed since he became popular. Mega Man's appearance has constantly changed to the point that he's almost entirely unrecognizable as Mega Man. The most recent games being the best example of that: http://images.wikia.com/nintendo/en/images/1/11/Mega_Man_Star_Force_Dragon.jpg If Capcom gives Sakurai some sort of package deal and gives him both Ryu & Mega Man, that's fantastic, but Ryu is the bigger character & the bigger money-maker.*
First off, Megaman isn't just a popular character, but he's one of the most iconic character that Capcom has in general, sure Ryu may be popular, but ask yourself; are his ties closer to Nintendo's than they are with Megaman?If you ask me Megaman has the most history with Nintendo, considering he's had a bunch of titles on that started NES and Super NES, he definetly has more going for him with Nintendo than you can say about Ryu, Ryu has mostly been focused as with Sony as of late, not to much going on for Nintendo.
Now as far as Ryu goes, like I mentioned , he is definetly another if not the most iconic Capcom rep, but let's face it, the truth is that while he may be the most iconic, he certainly isn't the most deserving or demanded for that matter, for example Megaman was one of the most demanded 3rd party characters on Sakurai's poll, even overlooking Ryu who was obviously Capcom's 'mascot'.You also stated that Megaman has also been transitioning during the years, while that may be true, Capcom has recently been putting effort on his classic games with recently releasing Megaman 9 and 2010, what does that mean? It means that Megaman is still of interest to Capcom, if he wasn't as popular as you said Capcom would have never even bothered making those games, Capcom even stated bringing back the classic series due to Megaman's popular demand, and with another possible game coming along and his request for Smash ever so growing, I can definetly see his chances higher than Ryu's.
Ryu may be the most iconic to Capcom, but isn't exactly the most demanded, at least for Smash, Ryu isn't a "absolute-shoe in" like you mentioned, heck not even Megaman can be considered a definite shoe-in, Sakurai may not even have or want a new 3rd party character at all if he were to change his mind about 3rd party guests.
That's my take on it.