haha yea, occam's razor says lynch FF, FF's play says lynch FF
so all aboard
so all aboard
-
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Monster Mafia - Game Over! Was the Beast slain, or did evil overcome?
- Thread starter #HBC | Dancer
- Start date
you honestly think I would deny someone claiming they saw me visit someone last night by claiming VT if I was scum in this situation?
like seriously?
Visit falsifiers are extremely rare roles here on SWF. I know better than to try and lie by claiming something that is incredibly unlikely in a SWF setup. They're also incredibly powerful, so their uncommon inclusion makes complete sense. If I was scum and knew that I visited FML like y'all are claiming, I would have attempted to justify my hate making on him. I probably would have said something along the lines of "well I thought FML would be the best play for Day 2 but then changed my mind on re-read at the start of Day 2, which is why I didn't pick rajam instead."
Yeah yeah WIFOM I know but like if you think about it me trying to contradict one of the most ****ing townie looking players in the game on his NA claim makes no ****ing sense as scum
heres to hoping reasonable people without a boner for killing me will see that
like seriously?
Visit falsifiers are extremely rare roles here on SWF. I know better than to try and lie by claiming something that is incredibly unlikely in a SWF setup. They're also incredibly powerful, so their uncommon inclusion makes complete sense. If I was scum and knew that I visited FML like y'all are claiming, I would have attempted to justify my hate making on him. I probably would have said something along the lines of "well I thought FML would be the best play for Day 2 but then changed my mind on re-read at the start of Day 2, which is why I didn't pick rajam instead."
Yeah yeah WIFOM I know but like if you think about it me trying to contradict one of the most ****ing townie looking players in the game on his NA claim makes no ****ing sense as scum
heres to hoping reasonable people without a boner for killing me will see that
FF imagine you weren't the one in the spotlight. And a player who hasn't really show any scumhunting initiative whatsoever the entire game happens to be seen visiting FML a player who was hated. That player also happens to be voteblocked (a great way to balance a hater maker scum role) and claims a weak role like VT.
you're telling me you wouldn't lynch that slot?
you're telling me you wouldn't lynch that slot?
you couldn't say this cuz you already claimed you weren't the hater maker
Well, SOMEBODY's lying. Either Zen or FF. That much is obvious.
From a design standpoint, I'm more inclined to believe that there are two separate roles at play here rather than a single hate-maker who loses his own vote. Mainly because, well, that's kind of useless. So long as the hate-maker/vote-loser doesn't get NK'd, all he's essentially doing is locking his vote in a single player. He'd literally have no incentive to ever use his ability unless he knew for a fact he was getting NK'd.
Outside that, we'd have a hate-maker PR and a vote-cancelling PR, though which went to town and which to scum would be debatable. I definitely couldn't see both roles going to scum, because that would just be OP. Pitting one town against one scum would make a bit more sense, since they inherently balance each other out, although is the scum survives to lylo and the townie doesn't, then it might be a bit overpowered on scumside. Meanwhile both going to town could be both powerful or disastrous, depending on how the game goes. It'd be swingy for sure.
I'm inclined to think that it's 1 scum and 1 town for those PRs, or else FF is lying and lost his vote some other way. Or FML is lying and became hated some other way. Basically... I don't think FF lost his ability to vote by targeting FML, although he could have lost his vote by some other means.
</theory>
But yeah, definitely a liar between Zen and FF no matter what.
From a design standpoint, I'm more inclined to believe that there are two separate roles at play here rather than a single hate-maker who loses his own vote. Mainly because, well, that's kind of useless. So long as the hate-maker/vote-loser doesn't get NK'd, all he's essentially doing is locking his vote in a single player. He'd literally have no incentive to ever use his ability unless he knew for a fact he was getting NK'd.
Outside that, we'd have a hate-maker PR and a vote-cancelling PR, though which went to town and which to scum would be debatable. I definitely couldn't see both roles going to scum, because that would just be OP. Pitting one town against one scum would make a bit more sense, since they inherently balance each other out, although is the scum survives to lylo and the townie doesn't, then it might be a bit overpowered on scumside. Meanwhile both going to town could be both powerful or disastrous, depending on how the game goes. It'd be swingy for sure.
I'm inclined to think that it's 1 scum and 1 town for those PRs, or else FF is lying and lost his vote some other way. Or FML is lying and became hated some other way. Basically... I don't think FF lost his ability to vote by targeting FML, although he could have lost his vote by some other means.
</theory>
But yeah, definitely a liar between Zen and FF no matter what.
Xivii
caterpillar feet
Hehe twas a gambit.
**** i hate you zen
Xivii
caterpillar feet
Vote: Vult Redux
Xivii
caterpillar feet
Least I made you look obv town n-n
vote: vult redux
wouldn't have done that and closed off the justification option if I was actually the hater maker. That would be really stupid. I'd be closing off a viable option for getting out of this very type of scenario for no gain by claiming not hater early on
I understand that from your perspective I look like the best lynch ever but you also need to understand that that whole hatermaker/voteblock drawback theory is ENTIRELY CONJECTURE ON YOUR PART
You say Ive had no scum hunting initiative but thats bull****. of course you're gonna disagree because you want my corpse hardcore right now but w/e. I think plenty of other players in this game will acknowledge that even though Im not the shining paragon of scumhunting, I've been making a progressively better effort as the game has been going on.
whatever, Im obviously not going to convince you so I don't really care much about going back and forth with you about this. The rest of the town can decide what to do about this.
actually unvote
Holy **** Zen, that was ********.
Did you actually track anyone at all, or was it all a lie?
Did you actually track anyone at all, or was it all a lie?
Xivii
caterpillar feet
I should say obv not mafia. I can buy Indy if there is one. Though the only reason why I thought there was one earlier was because of Johan. But he already flipped mafia.
Xivii
caterpillar feet
@
#HBC | Mac
why did you unvote vult? Why did you unvote Frozen? You had him as scum despite the hated-blocker idea. What changed? Why are you voting laundry? Didn't you have gorf in your probably town section? Do you still think jerkus is scum? If so do you think gorf would bus 1 of his partners day 1 and immediately bud his other partner day 2?
#HBC | Mac
why did you unvote vult? Why did you unvote Frozen? You had him as scum despite the hated-blocker idea. What changed? Why are you voting laundry? Didn't you have gorf in your probably town section? Do you still think jerkus is scum? If so do you think gorf would bus 1 of his partners day 1 and immediately bud his other partner day 2?
i'm thinking if FF is scum, he's a mafia goon/GF. He claimed VT during that interaction and I don't see how he'd have the confidence to do that unless he really didn't visit anyone. I found his reaction to be pretty legit enough to not keep focusing on him. Specifically his crap about how I had a boner for getting him lynched lol. Not saying he's town but I don't think he merits focus right now
voted vult cuz he seemed like another good option to put my vote on, but then i realized I don't really have any concrete reasons for voting him besides the fact that you were voting him
this recent interaction made me think even more that gheb is likely town so I wanted to join one of his wagons. I really really don't think bardull is scum from his interactions with scary and I could kinda see his Gorf reasoning in Gheb's most recent post.
I still really think Jerkus is scum but I don't really trust my reads right now... and maybe that slot is right about me being tunnelled so I'm hopping off their nuts till I finish my reread. I could see Gorf bussing both his partners. I can see scumGorf whiteknighting a bunch of slots d1 to get them on his good side. I can see gorf and washedlaundry switching to a townJerkus lynch today expecting to have quite a bit of town support from ppl like me and xatres.
process of elimination still makes me feel good about a vult lynch
voted vult cuz he seemed like another good option to put my vote on, but then i realized I don't really have any concrete reasons for voting him besides the fact that you were voting him
this recent interaction made me think even more that gheb is likely town so I wanted to join one of his wagons. I really really don't think bardull is scum from his interactions with scary and I could kinda see his Gorf reasoning in Gheb's most recent post.
I still really think Jerkus is scum but I don't really trust my reads right now... and maybe that slot is right about me being tunnelled so I'm hopping off their nuts till I finish my reread. I could see Gorf bussing both his partners. I can see scumGorf whiteknighting a bunch of slots d1 to get them on his good side. I can see gorf and washedlaundry switching to a townJerkus lynch today expecting to have quite a bit of town support from ppl like me and xatres.
process of elimination still makes me feel good about a vult lynch
You're right, it was a dumb question. I'm exhausted (touring DC, stopped on a park bench to chill and got on here), and I'll refrain from posting until I'm rested up.Don't answer this, Zen.
how is it that all this inflammatory **** goes down and the game just ****in dies
lol the thread drags on for pages of bull**** in the early game and no one stops talking about meaningless bull**** and then a real event of substance happens and no has **** to say
lets get a wagon going people, more votes on Rajam/Vult
gogogogo I want my ****ing vote back next day plz =|
lol the thread drags on for pages of bull**** in the early game and no one stops talking about meaningless bull**** and then a real event of substance happens and no has **** to say
lets get a wagon going people, more votes on Rajam/Vult
gogogogo I want my ****ing vote back next day plz =|
FullMetalLynch
anomandaris_rake|orboknown
- Joined
- Jun 7, 2012
- Messages
- 1,842
Vote:rajam
FullMetalLynch
anomandaris_rake|orboknown
- Joined
- Jun 7, 2012
- Messages
- 1,842
Comments and indepth ish stuff after injustice
Just finished reading Scary
I feel way better about Jerkus, Werekill, and FML due to their early game interactions with Scary. FML's standing improved immensely upon re-reading all that very early game banter about you always chasing scary and scary saying he was just gonna let you tucker yourself out while simultaneously trying to buddy you.
I feel way worse about Gorf's and Bardull's slots.
I feel slightly better about Gheb because he treated Gheb essentially the same way he treated me in that post where he writes a small paragraph for everyone in the game. He takes basically no stance and asks for more content, just like he did to me. I know I'm town, so thats a slight plus in Gheb book.
Gorf looks worse because Scary virtually asked him for the same thing and Gheb and I but did it in a more playful and suggestive way as opposed to demanding. The change in tone to achieve essentially the same thing was offputting.
Other than that all my previous reads remain unchanged.
This really doesnt change my lynch pool much. It mostly expands my pool to go Rajam > Vult > Gorf(WL). Gorf/WL is literally only behind Vult because kuz's slot is just a slot we need to cull and it hasnt redeemed itself at all, while WL had a spurt of meaningful contribution and will become easier to read if he continues that. My scum read on the slot is literally only based on Gorf-Scary interactions so with WL having potential to develop the slot more I'm willing to wait on lynching it, but don't need to at all if town feels its the best play.
So there you go folks, no one can ***** about not knowing my stances anymore. Vooooooooottttttteeeeeeeesssss
I feel way better about Jerkus, Werekill, and FML due to their early game interactions with Scary. FML's standing improved immensely upon re-reading all that very early game banter about you always chasing scary and scary saying he was just gonna let you tucker yourself out while simultaneously trying to buddy you.
I feel way worse about Gorf's and Bardull's slots.
I feel slightly better about Gheb because he treated Gheb essentially the same way he treated me in that post where he writes a small paragraph for everyone in the game. He takes basically no stance and asks for more content, just like he did to me. I know I'm town, so thats a slight plus in Gheb book.
Gorf looks worse because Scary virtually asked him for the same thing and Gheb and I but did it in a more playful and suggestive way as opposed to demanding. The change in tone to achieve essentially the same thing was offputting.
Other than that all my previous reads remain unchanged.
This really doesnt change my lynch pool much. It mostly expands my pool to go Rajam > Vult > Gorf(WL). Gorf/WL is literally only behind Vult because kuz's slot is just a slot we need to cull and it hasnt redeemed itself at all, while WL had a spurt of meaningful contribution and will become easier to read if he continues that. My scum read on the slot is literally only based on Gorf-Scary interactions so with WL having potential to develop the slot more I'm willing to wait on lynching it, but don't need to at all if town feels its the best play.
So there you go folks, no one can ***** about not knowing my stances anymore. Vooooooooottttttteeeeeeeesssss
how did it make you feel worse about rajam? i'm really tryna get the bardull case
#HBC | Laundry
Grand Sage of Swag
Okay, I'm here again. I'd like not to spend 6 hours playing this game again so I'mma try to keep it brief. I'll reread what I missed in the process and then I'm doubling back to about page 25 or thereabouts, wherever the wagon craziness started to happen.
#HBC | Laundry
Grand Sage of Swag
i don't have a boner to kill you but i don't like this response. you're just making a bunch of what-if's to cover your ass.
#HBC | Laundry
Grand Sage of Swag
#HBC | Laundry
Grand Sage of Swag
#HBC | Laundry
Grand Sage of Swag
I'm really not sure how you jump to these conclusions because the post you've drawn up says so little about your conclusions, it just makes various notes.So I've mainly highlighted posts from Day 1 that I felt are important through connections or other reasons. Flips tell me that Zen is likely not scum with Scary, whereas there's a small chance that FML is. I feel like Rajam is a good option to pursue and want him to weigh in on several things.
[collapse="Day 1"]Page 2 - 3:
Thinking it's rather unlikely that Scary and Bardull are scumbros playing this way. Looking back on it, it feels like Scary tried to play along with Bardull's sillyness to leave a playful townie impression.
The triple vote on Frozen is not conclusive and likely just random.
Bardull wagon has Macman, Gorf, me and Jerkus on it [in that order] but it's not conclusive either I think as it just seemed to be a random RVS wagon that Bardull didn't even seem to react to.
#109 is really fishy, as Macman has pointed out. The problem is that it's hardly Jerkus' fault to have Scary talk about him like that. I remember scumLaundry doing something similar to me in Skies of Arcadia [or was it Legend of Mana?]. However, I do think that Laundry is more likely to set up a plan like that whereas Scary might have just faked it for disconnection purposes.
-> Bardullslot very likely town, Frozen neutral, Jerkus suspect but not necessarily scummy
Page 4:
#141-#143 is interesting. Though technically null, gut tells me it's a town-tell for FML
#144 & #146 uncharacteristic posts from Gorf. When the **** has Gorf EVER fos'd people before?
#148 & #151 more interactions between Gorf and Scary that are of no consequence.
-> Townlean on FML, Gorf 'connected' to Scary
@
Is Jerkus' confidence in posts like #265 faked? I'm not seeing it tbh, I think he's being legitimate there, though likely wrong.
Page 7:
#271 & #275, Scary insists on FML / Werekill town. The way he asks giraffe in 275 about FML leans FMLtown again
Page 9 - 11
#342 looks very much out of the blue. Scary promises an explanation, which is presented in #402 and it's meh. I feel like it doesn't reflect his own thoughts on Jerkus but just summarizes the ideas of those people that were already scumreading him at that point. Makes me question scumJerkus even more right now.
#484 still largely applies imo but I guess it has to be my fault for giving the hydra more credit than it deserves.
#641 also still largely applies. FMLs play has been disgusting and his 'connections' to Scary are his only saving grace in my book.[/collapse]
Either Rajam or Gorf's slot should die toDay mehthinks.
Unvote Vote Rajam
Would definitely lynch: Rajam, Laundry, Nabe
Could compromise on: Jerkus, Frozen, FML, Vult
Would not lynch: Macman, Xatres, Joey, Werekill, Zen
@Xivii
YesterDay you mentioned Joey and me as people you'd lynch. Still thinking so? Why?
#HBC | Laundry
Grand Sage of Swag
EBWOP: AM I high jegus.
It says so little about your conclusions. You've made a bunch of assertations and observations but you've not really fleshed out any of the justification for them, particularly on why your scumpool is your scumpool. You make absolutely no comments about Nabe, you mention a 'connection' between my slot to Scary's but you never seem to give it a direction/alignment, and you even mention that Bardull and Scary's connection doesn't look bad. I don't get it.
It says so little about your conclusions. You've made a bunch of assertations and observations but you've not really fleshed out any of the justification for them, particularly on why your scumpool is your scumpool. You make absolutely no comments about Nabe, you mention a 'connection' between my slot to Scary's but you never seem to give it a direction/alignment, and you even mention that Bardull and Scary's connection doesn't look bad. I don't get it.
#HBC | Laundry
Grand Sage of Swag
Why was this missing from the initial post? This answers literally everything I just asked.I'm saying that the early connections imply that it's not very likely for Bardull/Rajam and Scary to be a scumteam. But like I said, I have little faith in connections in this game because of how the Scary lynch happened.
Later on during Day 1 Rajam started attacking Gorf who supported the Scary wagon. If Jerkus' poisoner theory is correct it'd make sense for Scary's scummate to try diverting the attention away from Scary onto somebody else. It's interesting that Rajam chose Gorf who was not only a supporter of the Scary wagon but also had pushed Bardull earlier. I think there is a decent chance that Rajam/Bardull-slot is scum with Scary DESPITE the early connections implying the opposite.
Yet Gorf also had a number of interactions with Scary that made me raise my eyebrows so there is also a chance that Gorf is scum with Scary in my book. That's why I have both Rajam and Gorf in my lynchpool even though it appears to be contradictory at first sight.
... everything. Virtually.
#HBC | Laundry
Grand Sage of Swag
I wanted to get a senes of what he was talking about but it's just far too vague.
vote: vult redux
#HBC | Laundry
Grand Sage of Swag
That said, I don't necessarily understand the Vult hate. The slot replaced Kuz who was a non-factor. Vult himself is barely a factor, only judged by hating Zen and Joey, and yet people have him as scum? Why?
#HBC | Laundry
Grand Sage of Swag
Now back I go. I'll consolidate my thoughts into one post instead of just exploding with posts everywhere.
Oh please kindly explain to me how else exactly I was supposed to defend myself against an accusation I ****ing knew was false in some wayi don't have a boner to kill you but i don't like this response. you're just making a bunch of what-if's to cover your ***.
pretty sure covering all the options that could explain why Zen would say something happened that I know for a fact did not, is exactly how one should respond. ya know, consider all the ****ing options or something like that. that sounds like a smart thing to do. good thing I did that.
@
#HBC | Mac
I'll have to go back to grab some specific posts cuz I cant remember them off the top of my head but I remember the whole triple vote buddying bull**** feeling weird and then I think I remember scary being like dismissive of bardull hate early and trying to deflect for him since he was so inactive