I think the main reason this hurts Chrom's chances is because the new Ike design is really similar with the exposed arms, the shoulder pad, the cape, the raised collar, and the straps over the chest.
Far from identical obviously, but close enough that I would wonder why Ike would get this new look if the new Fire Emblem character was going to be so similar looking, especially when the two could have been more differentiated by simply updating Ike's old look. I think a nice compromise, and at this point perhaps even a likely one, would be for Chrom and Lucina to be alts for Ike and Marth respectively. The models would be similar enough that I think it could be a fairly easy change to make, and if they got their own voices then it would actually end up being a pretty fair and faithful way to include those characters. As in, they're virtually in the game, just without their own movesets. Then if there's a third Fire Emblem spot, it can be Anna or Robin or somebody else with something new and unique to offer as a Fire Emblem rep. Or you know, Roy I guess.
Of course, Chrom could still be in, but this definitely brings some doubt into the equation.