I know gheb hates me for resorting to this, but obviously it's not a case unless it's a 90,000 word post according to this town, so you want a case, I'll give you a motherf***ing case.
Lets start with a bit a of wagon analysis:
3. Overswarm (4) JTB, Tery, Rajam, Boat
With 13 playing, it takes 7 to lynch!
Yellow = third party scum
Red = mafia
green = town
Lets look at the OS wagon here, the only thing of real note here is that the wagon was mostly formed during RVS, but boat was the only non-rvs vote.
Furthermore, it's as a companion to a completely unexplained scumcase against myself, nich, and os which was just dropped without comment. The only person "justified" was OS, he quoted overswarm telling nich to ask specific questions, and then posted several links to OS...
asking specific questions among other things.
Basically a paper-thin justification for a blatant wagon jump, scummy as ****.
11. Raziek (5) Boat, JTB, RR, OS, Nabe
This one he actually started, unfortunately not really useful except to take what was done during the wagon, because it was literally the scummiest wagon ever. Seriously OS, what POSSESSED you to get on this wagon? The wagon composition alone should've shouted obvious-town.
Now some general scumtells:
Forgive Ryker, he's being an idiot as usual.
But besides that he's right. I'M right. And Nich you are very, very wrong.
If you honestly think there's no better lynch candidate than ME? ME!!?!? At ANY point in the game you must be sorely mistaken, you bumbling imbecile.
Why so defensive brah, nich really didn't push hard and he subsequently puts nich as a scumread and doesn't follow up on reactions to this, so it doesn't really read as reaction fishing. There was no real reason for this, it reads like a knee-jerk, scum not liking the attention.
Then, there's circus' posts:
So, to be clear, you do or do not have some strong suspicion toward Inferno?
I would consider basically anyone a better lynch than a no lynch. Though I'm going to tell you right now that you trying to set-up Ryker as the default fallback lynch this early in the game, based on pretty much nothing, is not rubbing me the right way about you at all. There are plenty of people I would have no problem falling back on before Ryker, and he would be a good choice for scum to try and get rid of early if he's town. If he's still alive by D3, then we can talk about lynching him. But until then, he's not the kind of person I just want to throw away on D1 if we don't someone better. We'll find someone better. I know you and Ryker have some out-of-game beef or something, and I'm hoping that's not what is informing your opinion of him here.
I think I want him to start playing soon, because I didn't even note that he was in this game until just recently.
I do not share your town read on Rajam. Can you point to what it is that gives you that read?
What kind of question is this? Weirdest form of buddying I think I've ever seen.
If there's scum between AB and OS, it's AB. The headbutting those two were doing earlier just looked like ego v. ego to me, but this random buddying from AB afterward feels really grimey.
At least one person on this wagon is being opportunistic.
Vote: Inferno
Tery can die. But that's a job for a vig, if anyone, the way I see it right now.
I guess I have a higher opinion of him than you do. If I were scum and Ryker wasn't on my team, I would want him gone before he had a chance to sniff me out. Because I would expect him to do so. In fact, I pretty much tried to do exactly that in Super Heroes, as I'm sure you're intimately aware. I kept thinking I could use his abrasiveness against him to get him lynched so I wouldn't have to deal with him pointing fingers at me all game long.
You seem to have better meta on him than I do (which makes sense; I basically have none). I don't consider the idea that the entire scum team is bad all that unlikely, and the way Rajam is reaching for the point you're highlighting specifically rings insincere to me. I tend not to give much weight to "scummates wouldn't let so-and-so do that" logic anyway.
For accuracy's sake, I wasn't ignoring him as much as I was waiting for him to come back to the thread to see if he would respond to me before getting too hopped up on what I've been seeing from him. I've had my eye on him since his first post directed at me.
Mostly Royal Sleepover. You were town there. I've skimmed games that may have had you in them that aren't sticking in my memory, but Sleepover's my biggest reference point because I actually had to read that game when I replaced in. It seemed like you didn't like RVS there either.
I attribute your initial wagon almost entirely to people being in RVS mode. The Boat wagon seems to have formed very suddenly, and with no reason given that I find worthwhile. It's possible that there were
also opportunistic people on your wagon, but Boat's feels more telling. Four people are on that wagon, and they all seem to think they have a decent reason to be there, and none of them do.
Why not JTB or Xartes or Tery or *glances at player list* Raziek (he's in this game?) if that's the case? So far, I would assume all of them to be similarly useless this game. But I also wouldn't really consider any of them a threat to scum, where as Ryker could be. That's why this is bothering me. Would you not consider Rykertown to be an asset if we have him?
He unvoted Overswarm and then basically asked "Who do you hate the most on your wagon, OS? I'll take 'em down with ya!" Looks like he's trying to get on OS' good side but doesn't know how to do it in a way that looks natural.
I didn't read FE, but I'll keep it in mind. I wouldn't say that I have an active town read on OS yet, but I have leaning scum reads on multiple players who have interacted with him that make me feel okay with him for now.
Yes, I think Ryker's just being Ryker. He's always antagonistic; it's not a scumtell. I know nothing about Moth. I may be projecting too much, but I consider attacks on things like Ryker's pic posting and "emotional" responses and antagonistic style to be fishy, because they remind me of myself in Super Heroes. It doesn't take much effort to point at a player with a playstyle that people don't like and try to turn town against them purely on that basis. All the better if it's a player that is good at finding scum. And then, when he's dead, you can just say "well, we're better off without having to worry about him anyway."
I'd rather have Boat's slot replaced.
Tery is outright scummy to me at this point.
Of particular interest is that he didn't defend the Rajam slot from similar opinions at all, in spite of the fact that the pattern was very similar. He didn't touch on JTB, which is notable.
As I explained before, there was no real incentive for circus to defend town-ryker as scum. The behavior is out of place given his past pattern, and he would know it. It was asking for attention regardless of which way boat flipped or even on a reread of the slot later simply because he defended a null so hard. A townflip wouldn't help him because it was a null, and him flipping scum wouldn't be particularly helpful in case of his lynch later because boat was already in the crosshairs and it would be far more advantageous.
OS said that this was wiform, but he only debunked the attitudes presented in one game, and this included interactions between gheb and circus when they were hydra'd. Old or not, it displays a clear pattern, and circus is obviously smart enough to recognize this.
Next, let's discuss this:
Vote JTB
Unvote
Vote Xatres
Unvote
Maybe Vote AB
Unvote
Vote Xatres
Ryker's an idiot but those reads are accurate.
Okay I'm finally caught up and I have to say, I agree with OS.
Raziek could easily be scum. I don't really get what people are saying about Raziek lifting the Circus case off the ground; he hopped on with no more given reasoning than "Sure whatever." The one who got the lynch happening was solely Nich. Completely and entirely his original case.
That said I don't like the AB shenanigans. Particularly this post:
The bolded sentence feels like padding for a fall. I think the whole deal with him being confirmed town is WIFOM and should not be taken as fact. It defeats the point of this being a fair and balanced game anyways.
I've also seen people setting me up for a D3 lynch should we survive that long, and I don't like that AT ALL. How long I survive has very little to do with my alignment and I have no control of Ryker's posting beyond eventually replacing Boatchouli out for my main account if I feel it's necessary to play the game to a satisfactory standard. I'd also like to point out that Raziek was one of the people saying a Boat lynch would be a good idea on D3 if Ryker continues posting pictures.
My current reads are as follows, if there are any discrepancies with what I said previously it's because I didn't know what the **** I was talking about:
1. Inferno3044
2. JTB
3. Overswarm
4. Red Ryu
6. Analytical Buttheads
7. Rajam
8. Nicholas1024
9. Xatres
10. Terywj
11. Raziek
12. Boatchouli
13. Frozenflame751
Colors should be self explanatory.
Raziek has been following other people this whole game and generally trying to blend in. I don't like him at all. I've stated why I don't think AB should be considered confirmed town and I find his play extremely anti-town.
A lot of the Nulls are because I simply haven't read into them. That was simply too much to read in one night and still have the energy to make a post with this much content.
I like OS' play and I like his thoughts though his logic on following AB was dumb as hell.
Nich is pretty much confirmed town from my point of view as he took several dying wagons near deadline and pushed a wagon on scum from literally no votes. Scum would have been content to blend in and put their vote pretty much anywhere since a no lynch would have been fine for scum.
Red Ryu makes as little sense as ever but he's leaning town at this point for me. Don't see any scum intent from him. May need to look into him a bit more.
Rajam is leaning town purely on the premise that Raziek is scum. If my read on Raziek were to be revised, so would my read on Rajam. The same may or may not apply in reverse depending on the situation.
In conclusion: Vote: Raziek
Ryker's next post doesn't disagree
1. Inferno3044 ()
2. JTB ()
3. Overswarm (1) Boat
4. Red Ryu ()
5. Circus (7) Nich, Raziek, RR, Xatres, Tery, OS, Rajam
6. Analytical Buttheads ()
7. Rajam ()
8. Nicholas1024
9. Xatres ()
10. Terywj (1) Circus
11. Raziek ()
12. Boatchouli (2) Inferno, FF
13. Frozenflame751 ()
Not voting - JTB, AB
With 13 playing, it takes 7 to lynch!
Circus has been lynched! The game is in twilight until further notice.
The lynch wagon for reference.
The second one was made by Moth before we got on the same page. He, however, had read the game. I had only looked at the wagon on Circus and what I remembered from early in the day phase when I was still present. The second list is more accurate and you will see more revisions to it as the day continued.
Who else would OS have copped and why wouldn't he have implied they were obvtown in addition to FF?
Assume with me, for a moment, that FF is unlynchable at this moment so he's not even a topic of discussion. Then assume that a voting block emerged and Tery, Nich, and myself would not vote Tery or myself. FF's slot shows all signs of remaining inactive. Would you push for RR or JTB?
This answer does explain Raziek, but it's an easy excuse to make in hindsight.
The thing is, it doesn't explain why he was on Xatres in his initial post as a scumread and not in his second post, in fact it provides a very clear contradiction.
He says that his initial reads were based on remembering the wagon and early in the day when he was present, so how does that explain why he pushed xatres? Xatres had nothing scummy early in the day when boat was posting and his position on the wagon was completely unremarkable. So why?
Futhermore:
Heh? He obviously had to at least start his reread in order to pick up on what turned away my lynch wagon.
Three options:
1. Boat actually had read more then he said in his post.
2. Boat essentially looked right above and saw that OS pushed for either him or Xatres, and felt like Xatres was a convenient outlet for the pressure.
3. Both 1 and 2.
Odds are it's three here, before he even posted his reads, he challenged me on the color thing, using a quote from very late in the day. That means his reread had to cover a substantial amount of d1, so why the move to xatres and the sudden switch to raziek?
The most logical explanation is that his read hadn't covered enough of the current game day for him to realize that there was a ton of suspicion on Raziek. Furthermore lots of playing were pushing for him, so he needed an attractive, popular target that was bad at daygame.
There is no period he could've read that could've accounted for the sudden switch if he were just looking at the players and trying to obtain reads. The meat of the suspicious activity by both players was situated in the same general area of the game, and xatres was yet to go totally inactive. As scum looking to pick a good target to push to let off steam against him, it makes perfect sense, if his limited knowledge was of the current day and he had yet to collate the opinions of all the players.
If this wasn't it, then why lie about it?
While possible it's unlikely that raziek would be willing let alone capable of doing it non-transparently.
If you have evidence that it was a bus, feel free to present it, but I don't buy it, and I'm currently very comfortable with the slot.
This interaction here just smells, he seems to be hedging bets on disagreeing with his hydra-buddy since moth is pushing hardcore, but then he goes all-in here:
Don't hurt your arm patting yourself on the back, Nich. I'd already been posting sentences before you showed up, so please don't try and play it off that way.
I had Raz as town for the same reasons until I actually looked at it. He's a scummy ******* and aside from being vote two on the Circus wagon, he has no saving grace. Now let's examine that vote, shall we? He's the second vote on a deadline new wagon that looks certain to be a stall that will push toward No Lynch. Contrary to what he says, he never actually pushed Circus. His only contribution was his vote. Go back to the wagon and tell me what in it couldn't possibly be a bus. Go back in the day and tell me what else Raziek did that was town.
Now, come at me with either an air tight case or an apology for letting personal feelings get in the way of your ability to scum hunt.
As pointed out earlier, he had already reread when he made the initial point, so agreeing with me initially then pushing against me made no sense, unless he was pushing RR to deflect from himself. This is especially true based on the fact that he admitted it was his D1 play that made the difference, not subsequent D2 play.
I like you
[image redacted]
Will you be my Alice?
Why the automatic buddying with anyone who takes his side?
Raziek do you know what you did D1?
Allow me to enlighten you as our recollections seem to be different, and I've recently refreshed my memory.
You did next to nothing. You managed to construct a piss poor case on Rajam and "push it"
However Rajam was inactive and you got absolutely nothing from it. You got no responses from it and no votes. What you did acomplish with it was sitting on the sidelines and only poking your head up when someone bothered you. When OS asked for two lynch suspects you mentioned Tery and never at any point did you elaborate upon that.
Then we reached the scramble at the end of the day. At the risk of an understatement you vote hopped quite a bit. You jumped from you Rajam case to an AB vote. You followed the wagon from AB to FF. You hopped off of FF and started voting Boat. At some point during this you voted for No Lynch of all things, under the banner of "I don't think it's right to push this thing through." I believe this is when you were voting FF.
You then, when bothered, unvoted. Lemme emphasize you unvoted NO LYNCH.
Then Nich comes along with his Circus case on the man you liked and otherwise hadn't referenced. You tell him "Alright Nich, I'll buy that."
There was no independant reasoning, there was no considering why, there was no push to make this lynch a reality. It remains my belief that you expected the wagon to stall out and the lynch to stall into nothing or revert back to Boat or Tery. This way your vote goes down in history as having been on the scum at the end of D1. While avoiding having to put your vote on Boat or the scummate that might have been lynched (This would be our other scum pick, Tery).
UNFORTUNATELY FOR YOU, you misjudged the nature of this town and how fast the wagon would form on Circus. He was lynched. Miracle of miracles. But that was okay with you, you're sitting pretty as #2 on his wagon. There was no good way to get off it at that point so you rode the wave to D2.
AND HERE WE STAND, you remain a scummy player who repeatedly dodges our attempts to bring to light your lack of reasoning for your current vote, who "doesn't want to get into" why we're obviously scum, AND who continues to avoid meaningful contribution.
Our vote on you stays, and your final scummate is Tery. If we are wrong about Tery, then we simply move on to either Inferno or JTB.
So my kind sir, will you please proceed to making your response so I can judo the **** outta you.
Once again allow me to refresh your incorrect recollection. Circus disappeared for about 2 or 3 pages between where you said you liked him and his next post. After that he continued to post until his demise. Most of it consisted of how he was less than satisfied with the town's inability to get their noses away from OS' posterior.
You never explained why Nich's case on him was strong, until now you haven't even said Nich's case on him was strong, you simply said "I'll buy that," and have gone with the flow.
What we are trying to >imply here is that your vote on Circus was not genuine. It far from clears you, it was not something that you were considering, and it certainly does not outweigh the scummy activities committed prior to that wagon.
Here's the one thing that I find interesting, in all this time, why not a peep about FF? As far as lack of independent thought, and general lack of doing anything, FF is a far larger offender and even started the "no-lynch" train (which was frankly, a cop-out). This is especially true considering that FF joined the wagon at a point where it was late and much more likely that it was a bus to salvage town-cred.
He had him as null, so he had no real reason to not push, and ryker and his hydras don't generally act the sheep as town. So why not push against FF?
Because nobody else was interested in an FF push, leaving him as null would allow him to push if interest developed, but raziek was a popular target due to the fact that most of town had him as null at best, and several players found him actively scummy.
Ding ding ding. Regardless of Overswarm's alignment in this game, that's a good post.
A special note about how this post doesn't affect his alignment, but it's a great post anyway... why? Combined with the prior buddying it's just skeevy as hell. Straddeling the fence so hard here, so he doesn't disqualify any potential lynch. And out of all the people he's done that with, I'm the only one who he has actually pushed (never made a scumcase on btw). Why not just "good post", why does he feel the need to push "oh, OS' alignment is unknown", especially after nich started pushing and we expressed distrust?
Methinks he wanted to be ready to jump if things developed that way.
Note how he hasn't given any clear reads beyond his target in a very long time, wouldn't be that interesting if he wasn't clearly trying to preserve his options here.
This is especially notable because he had OS as town last time he posted reads.
I'm pretty good with Inferno dying at this point as well.
Note the expanded options, hasn't noted any townreads gleaned in a while.
Furthermore note the lack of content coming from boat. He used picture posting to disguise it early game, and he subsequently chooses to make almost meaningless posts with no real benefit to determining alignment (except the scumtells therein). The post about OS' post above is an especially notable example. Fake content all around.
Now then, add the general unwillingness to divulge townreads, or scumreads. Just attempts to sneak by with “I'm ok with this person dying”, which can refer to scum, null, or even extremely disruptive townreads, it's non-commital as ****. Especially not townreads though, because townreads are impossible to push. He's only given townreads of his own volition this game day, and look how safe his choices are.
And whenever he's not actively required to defend himself or push his wagon, he disappears.
He's scum guys.
Things to note about other players in relation to Boat:
Unvote
FF is the only person making sense right now, and despite my irks with him, I have to agree with his line of reasoning.
Push Boat, since he would be a fine fallout for right now.
Vote: Boatchouli
i'll be back for the deadline.
I forgot about this when I started my case, RR essentially started the boat push, I don't think they're scumbuddies at all anymore because at that point it was too easy for a wagon to become the wagon, and I doubt that RR would push for a bus so easily on a more experienced slot.
You were supposed to be part of the group I shifted over on hold. I realized this after I posted.
I am okay with placing my vote on Xatres for now.
Vote: Xatres
At this point it was supposed to be down to tery or boat, realistically circus existed as an option as well. So it was supporting the circus wagon (mafia) or supporting boat as his options, and he picked a third option. I strongly suspect that circus' move against Tery was a bus at that point, he just wasn't able to amas the votes.
Harsh.
Generally speaking, the later on the wagon one is, the more opportunistic it seems. Inferno had expressed some very light distaste for Boat's play earlier, but he didn't lay his vote on him until others got some momentum going on him first. His generally fluffy/safe play already had me arching an eyebrow at him anyway.
Really, my vote could almost as easily go on Tery, especially considering the point Nich brought up in his 246. But, like I said, I think I'd prefer him as vig fodder at this point. Plus, I'm not completely comfortable with Nich, so I don't feel great about following his lead on Tery just because he's making a decent point.
Really came across this rereading the OS posts, but this is interesting in light of this post:
I'm obviously not going to hammer Tery if he had agreed to shoot me.
Why hammer particularly?
Granted the fact that it was mentioned earlier makes it less damning, but I think there's a good chance that Tery is a mafia bomb and boat is his scummate.
Which leaves me with my conclusion, lynch tery, have boat hammer. If boat still refuses to hammer, we lynch him instead.
Tery also seems loath to lynch him in this post as well:
Uhhh I'm more or less inclined to go against JTB because Boat can help us out endgame?
Liking the idea of mafia-bomb tery teamed with mafia ryker, probably the role-cop that xatres alluded to.
Circus v tery read a hell of a lot like a bus, and that explains it neatly.
Random other **** I came across during my reread:
I know FF is town. I know AB is town because of that color thing. I'm pretty positive you're town Nich, or at least not mafia; this doesn't stop you from being an indie but I'm not worried about that for right now. I'm town. Other than that I can lynch just about anyone, but I'm more concerned about activity levels and when someone thinks they're safe and they wipe the sweat off their forehead.
OS scanned FF, note the major difference between his treatment of of Nich and FF, both essentially cleared for similar reasons based on the wagon progressions as best as we could tell in OS' mind, there was no other given reason.
So, now for the TL;DR version :
1. Voting behavior has been scummy as hell.
2. He lied about what he had read when he posted his votes and raziek and xatres, with the only realistic explanation being that he was trying to form a wagon to let off steam in town when they were all too willing to lynch him. The fact that he initially had Raziek as town especially illustrates this. What he hadn't read was enough of town's opinions to decide what was a good wagon to start.
3. Circus' interaction with Boat only makes sense with boat as scum with him.
4. Boat straddled the fence incredibly hard to avoid disqualifying anyone he could possibly lynch in the future up until as late as possible. Best explanation is that he's given up on those players.
5. His case against Raziek smells when you recognize that almost all his reasoning could be applied against FF. What's the difference between the two? FF isn't an easy target.
6. His random OS buddying doesn't make sense at all, especially considering he pushed the “still potentially scum” card in the same breath.
7. Extensive fake content from the slot, mainly the pictures, but also truly useless posts.
8. Extreme unwillingness to divulge reads unless pushed on it characterized last game day, but especially townreads. This feeds into point 4.
9. Odd relationship with Tery, likely scumteam with Tery as a mafia bomb is a strong possibility. The specific variation presumably kills their killer in terms of night actions and their hammerer.
Taken individually, they're not damning, even though some are strong scumtells. Taken as a group, they're absolutely obvious-scum status.
Move Tery to l-1 ASAP and tell him to hammer, if he refuses or it gets to within 20 hours of the deadline we're immediately lynching him, no ifs ands or buts.
![Terywj [태리]](/data/avatars/l/71/71007.jpg?1555906021){kind=avatar}
