Righty-o! Doin' mah thang, now.
From Xsy:
And with that, I say we end the RVS. That was fun. Now let's think of reasons as to why Macman can only post in caps.
Macman had enough posts up to that point to pin down that he had a posting restriction -- I know I certainly had -- but I do
not think that there was enough to nail down that it was all-caps. Macman's post were incredibly error-laden. He has said this was because he was tipsy, which is one thing I suspected (the other being that he did it to hide the true nature of his restriction). You're left with a lot of possibilities for Mac's restrictions in his posts (go reread the second page): Madfaces, typos right out the ***, spammy conduct, and the almost-all-caps. Probably others.
But Xsy nailed that down
perfectly, according to Macman's testimony. What I found particularly distressing, though, was that in one of his first posts where he defended himself, he essentially claimed that he didn't know Macman had a restriction. I don't like this, because his post very clearly implies that -- why would you propose ending the RVS to talk about it if you didn't think it would yield hard evidence?
I'm now fairly certain that Xsyven has the ability that caused Macman's unusual posting restriction. That Xsy would try to conceal that (it seems) could be a town or scum tell, really -- either he sees that the town is getting ready to dogpile and bends the truth for fear of this
damning him (bad idea, but not out of the question), or he's mafia, he did it to Mac, and he's lyin' through his teeth.
I know Xsy = Marshy now, but maybe Marshy can explain this. In the meantime, it's really starting to stink up the joint.
Plus there's still the fact that I hate talking about posting restrictions and have never seen it yield hard evidence. I think Xsyven is an experienced enough player to be well aware of this -- it's an empty avenue of discussion. No one is going to come out and say "lol I did it", nor are they going to be nice enough to serve up their allignment on a platter for you with a side salad.
Another Xsy:
Investigator could mean any number of things-- so hopefully we still have an actual cop.
I dunno. Best not fish them out if we do, yeah?
Oof, man. I think a lot of us considered that possibility, but why in the
hell would you vocalize that? With such a vastly newbtastic roster, newbie scum is a strong possibility, and they might have seen a dead Search Man and played the game under the assumption that we didn't have a cop. By pointing ths out, Xsy opened zero avenues of discussion, while basically invisibly giving the mafia pointers.
For the record, though, I don't think we have a cop. Scav has said he doesn't like "bingo night actions", so I would assume our "investigator" was a scaled-down version of a cop, however powerful as Scav would accept in his game. Xsyven, obviously, didn't find this as likely and saw fit to point it out. Do not like.
Chaco did so right after, I might add. Ick.
I think that's the last post by Xsyven of any real substance (for quite a few pages), so now's a good time for a segue:
Rockin:
Hey, did anyone noticed we only had one kill, even though there is a indie in our mist? Cause I sure as hell did
Several possibilities here, including a no-kill from a tricky serial killer.
However, my knowledge of Megaman may come in handy here. Scav mentioned that Megaman was in the game, suggesting Dr. Light as the "mafia" allignment. We're all pals of Dr. Wily, here, for the most part. In the Megaman series there was one other doctor of note -- Dr. Cossack. He served as the main antagonist to Dr. Light and crew in Megaman 4. However, he was being blackmailed by Dr. Wily.
Thus, in essence, you have a third scientist who has been an enemy both of Light
and Wily. Ding ding?
So, investigative roles: If we have any of you left, and depending on what you can find out, keep your eyes peeled for that, if you weren't.
One possibility I'm considering to explain the lack of a second nightkill is a Cossack-alligned cult. It's a scary possibility, and also a very real one. How many times has Wily "reprogrammed" Dr. Light's well-meaning robots in the Megaman games? Too many times, that's how many. It clicks perfectly with flavor, and it'd balance into the game just fine, as well. Eyes open, fellas, because right now I consider this more likely than a survivor.
And now to do a lot of repeating myself, as I show off some Warlord:
The post that started it all.
If you read that post carefully, he makes it blatantly clear that he knows exactly what he is doing by faking this posting restriction; incriminating Macman. In fact, it's exactly what he's driving at.
Until I Realized It Is Rather Doubtful That Two People Would Have The Same Posting Restriction. . .
Pretty clear implication here.
Notice That Last Uncapital Letter Of The Sentence There? He's Obviously Faking It.
And once again, I challenge anyone (Warlord included) to read over that post and actually think of a single pro-town reason to do what he did.
Possibilities:
1) Warlord is town, Macman is mafia -- Warlord would have no reason to be suspicious of Macman. The closest thing we probably have to a cop is dead, and frankly, I don't put the stock in a 100% new player to try to disguise a night-guilty in such a laborious fashion while trying to secretively push the lynch. Think back to your first game and honestly ask yourself if you were thinking so circuitously. I doubt it very much.
Thus there's really no possibility here other than Warlord assuming that Macman's posting restriction = mafia, and that him faking it would make him look even more guilty, and so he did ... whatever the hell you call what he did. But you know what? I don't buy that for a second. You're not supposed to lynch someone on evidence you fabricated for no
damn reason. You're supposed to lynch them on evidence that
actually exists.
2) Warlord is mafia, Macman is town -- Ballsiest. Play. Ever. A few reasons I can think of for it, I suppose. If mafia had a stalker or another similar role, there's a chance they went after Mac and saw him as threatening enough to risk one of their own (the newest player) to try to get him lynched. I consider that unlikely.
There's also the possibility of Warlord making an unconsulted move that was as stupid as it looks from a mafia POV. This I consider far more likely. However, I do concede that the more I think about it, the less yield i can really see for a mafioso attempting that -- even a brand-new one.
3) Warlord is mafia, Macman is mafia -- Just as ballsy. The only reason I can think to do that is that the entire "oops I suck" was manufactured and that Macman has an important mafia role (Megaman, perhaps). The idea being to get Warlord lynched and clear Mac in the process. Sounds ridiculous? It is. It's the only reason I can really think of for this to happen of the two of them were in a shared allignment on speaking terms (cult, mafia, whatever), and it just doesn't click. Draws too much attention I consider this the absolute least likely scenario. Of any listed.
4) Warlord is indy, Macman is town. Oh baby, yeah, I can see this one. Warlord seems, if not mafia, an almost definite indy, to me. And his gambit lends to a very clear interpretation of his actions -- lyncher and lyncher target.
I have to toss a big wtf Wikipedia's way:
Also, mentos, you and I call it a lyncher, Scav calls it Jester. If you read the first post carefully he clearly says there are none of these "Jester" roles and he describes them as characters that desire to be lynched or to lynch a specific person.
What? You... no. What? Quote that excerpt for me, because all I saw in that entire post was the section where he says "there is no jester". Scav knows
exactly what a jester is. A jester is an independent role that desires to be lynched, and he has played in a game with one before (Batmafia, teeheehee). What you just said is flatly untrue. A lyncher is not a "jester", it's not a crazy subdivision
of the jester role, it's not even on the same level. It's a completely different role, and one that is far less controversial in mafia communities. I'm really, truly confused by your saying that. Especially when right after the Warlord incident, you said that "Warlord is probably warlock. I mean fool*"
To get back to Warlord, his stunt is exactly the kind of thing I'd expect from a newbie lyncher, if they were the type of player to pull a stunt at all -- which Warlord quite clearly is. This is probably the most likely possibility that I've listed, and the most likely one I can think of.
5) Warlord is town, Macman is town -- If this is the case, we've been waiting, what, a week for Warlord to explain how his manoeuver in any way resembles a pro-town manoeuver. In any way resembles anything that could possibly benefit the town. By trying to manufacture evidence against someone else, if that person were to be town, Warlord has set up two mislynches the mafia can coast right on through.
I know people have discussed this until they were blue in the face, but I want everyone to really think that over and realize how truly, monumentally
stupidly antitown Warlord's move was, and how very unlikely it is that a town-minded player would do such a thing. Really think that through. Can you
ever see yourselves doing such a thing? Come on, now! Use your heads.
Moving on, this post from Macman I planned to address:
oH, I JUST REALIZED YOU GUYS MAY NOT KNOW WHY I'M VOTING XSY. BUT I HAVE A LEGIT REASON, AND WE SHOULD LYNCH HIM TODAY. TAKE MY WORD FOR IT SINCE I'M ALWAYS TOWN.
I can't tell if Macman is playing a sloppy game, or what. When I played an AIMafia game with him, as a mafiat he did try to lead the town in such a way, but it wasn't quite so ... forceful. So recklessly careless. Making this behavior truly baffling.
Mac, I know you can't say
why you're convinced that the person that did this to you is antitown, but I assume the restriction doesn't require you to make short posts that say things like TRUST ME CUZ I'M ALWAYS TOWN. Do you have any actual arguments to make? Can we expect you to be more insightful on D2 onwards?
After this entire debacle has gotten discussion going, Wiki
finally posts to answer to those questioning him on suggesting an NL. And nothing else. Quaint.
Then this post by Rockin:
And while Master Warlord's post seems strange and emotional, it doesn't seem to warrent a lynch much, especially if it sounds like he's just giving up. Who signs up in a game with enthusiasm only to get emo and such a few post later in the actual game?
Um, more importantly, how does enthusiasm-emo transformation really point to someone's allignment one way or the other?
I've liked Rockin as a likely townie for most of this game, but his eagerness to accept Warlord's "take my ball and go home" non-defence and then
change the subject is quite troublesome. More on this later, but what I want you to get here is that Rockin seems quite townie in all aspects except in terms of following up on Warlord.
Here's my case against Warlord from the time
I ninja'd Warlord with that post and waited patiently for him to answer it. Although he did
post more later on, he didn't. He flat out ignored it.
Also, Warlord's striking back at me reeks of OMGUS. In his first retaliation post, he somehow tries to use the fact that I tried to steer discussion away from posting restrictions as evidence that I was "defending Macman". When called on the fact that other people had already said so before I did, he offers this response:
I specifically said Evil Eye because he made such a huge post dedicated to saying how stupid it'd be to focus on posting restrictions rather then the shorter ones of the others. It seems much more focused on changing the topic.
Wow.
Hold on, let me get the highlight of that clip for you:
I specifically said Evil Eye because he made such a huge post
This is what the argument boils down to. I made a longer post than the other people (and this isn't even true, that post was quite average for my standards and not entirely about that). Really?
Really? Mafia is a game that ends up having a lot of big posts. I'm a guy that posts big posts. I'm sorry, but that is probably the worst counter-argument I have
ever seen. If you don't like the heat, get out of the kitchen. If you don't like to read, get out of the library.
Oh wait, I guess you already have.
Speaking of his disappearance, we have a name for what Warlord has done in the BRoom. It's called a "case of the Mini Mics", named after a scum player that was cornered, selectively engaged arguments for a while (some but not others), and then disappeared. It's exactly what Warlord is doing. I am 99% convinced Warlord is not town at this point.
From the same post by Warlord:
So you want to kill somebody because he's afk? Doesn't seem to be particularly good logic to me, though I'm hardly in a position to critique here.
Well, Rockin voting for smashman was a blatant pressure vote. I didn't say anything at the time to avoid, y'know, deflating the pressure of said vote. Now, you could argue Warlord doesn't know about pressure votes, and I might agree with you. My point here is only to illustrate how desperate he is to get the attention anywhere but on himself.
Another post by Warlord:
Said it before. I have no excuse, really, besides being a noob making a horribly stupid post last at night. My motive -was- to somehow prove myself as townie by acting as a victim, but that was a rather stupid idea seeing the townies seem to all have roles in this game anyway.
I'm still honestly very surprised everybody hasn't jumped all over me yet. Guess I might actually get to, y'know, play the game.
Look at that.
Look at that. Does that seem townie to you at all? He admits that his strategy was to make himself a townie by pretending to be the victim of a night action. Um, at the expense of a possible townie that
actually was!? Who you then tried to
incriminate by that very same token!?! There is absolutely no townie explanation for this behavior!
And then right after he flings his most desperate appeal to emotion yet, which basically reads to me as "FOR THE LOVE OF GOD PLEASE TAKE PITY ON ME". No. I won't.
Macman:
I REALLY DOUBT THAT. I JUST THOUGHT OF SOMETHING AND NOW I'm 98% SURE ITS A MAFIA POWER. SO LETS JUST ASSUME THAT IT IS.
This kind of thing still makes me very uncomfortable. It's like Mac is taking his posting restriction as a licence to not try all that hard with his posts. I have no idea what to make of his behavior, and am wondering if this is a further side effect of his posting restriction?
I just get very uncomfortable when someone says things like "just take my word for it" and "I'm totally sure now". Macman may be known for brief posts, but he at least substantiates his suspicions. Until this game.
Getting back to the Xsyven-Macman thing, here's a post from Wikipedia:
Wait, then why did you misspelled some in your first few posts? Was that just for fun?
Wiki later defended Xsyven's sudden pointing out of Macman's posting restriction, saying that he "thought the exact same thing". And yet in this post here you imply that you, like myself, considered the likelihood of the typos being part of the posting restriction. So, you
didn't have the "exact same thing" in mind as Xsyven. Xsy nailed it down 100% and plenty of us had a general idea. That's the distinction.
It's around this point that we realize Warlord has disappeared for good.
A post from Chaco:
Also, just pointing out. I see a resemblance in the style of EE and KiKi in Spidey. KiKi was obv playing "Too Townie" in Spidey, and I can kinda see that with EE here.
Required reading:
http://mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=Too_Townie
It's called the Too Townie fallacy for a reason -- it's fallacious! Kirby King wasn't playing "too townie", he was just playing Kirby King, the townie. His style was exactly the same as in the games I've played with him where he was town, except he wasn't.
I'm not saying I'm immune to suspicion, but using that kind of argument against me -- and only that -- is just utter crap. It's like your objective is to attack me with a point that gives me no substance by which to form a rebuttal. At least Omni gave me some meat to chew on.
Another post from Wikipedia:
Also, claiming in this type of game would be SOOOO easy since none of the roles are given at the beginning. It would be so unbelievably easy for a mafia member to list some obscure Megaman character and make up a useful ability and all we could really be able to say to that is, 'Oh...ok.'
Anti-claim much? You later say that you were just lamenting how easy it is to forge a fake claim. Well, as always, there were other things to discuss, and you just... didn't.
A question from Mentos:
@EE: You were really active a few days ago, and have slowed down big time, any thoughts on my comments about Mac's claimed restriction/any other recent posts?
Well, I've expressed alarm at some of his behavior, so I definitely think it's possible that he was messing around and latched onto what Xsy said. But then, why go so vehement with pushing for Xsyven's lynch later on? Why not just take the cookie and eat it quietly, so to speak? It doesn't jive that well. Mafia is almost guaranteed a free pass on D1, provided they don't do something stupid like viciously attack someone that gives them a major opening.
And Mac had made several posts, all of them allcaps'd. I don't know, it feels pretty legit. When Mac jokes around I don't see him being quite that consistent with his mannerisms.
As for any other recent posts, heh, keep reading.
More Chaco:
Evil Eye: He came in very strong, and I noticed quite a bit of mannerisms from KiKi. With that being said, I've never played with EE before. I will not gauge his ability now, to the BRoom games that were moved into dGames. However, I definitely am kinda feeling some "Too Townie".
Once again, I implore you to realize what a non-argument "too townie" really is. I post a lot. I'm loud, I'm aggressive, and I chew people out when they do something I feel is stupid. I try to pressure the town into moving in what I feel is a positive direction. You're basically using my playstyle itself as the basis for suspicion, and that just doesn't make sense. As I said before, Omni made actual points that I could respond to. You have not.
Hopefully some more BRoom games will be moved to DGs soon, but in the meantime, I'm sure Marshy, Handorin, Rockin, and Mentosman can vouch that this is how I always play. Always. If you want to make an actual argument and exchange some words, that's another story, but right now you haven't.
On that subject!
@Omni:
I don't know if you expect me to respond to your FoS, but I feel as though you at least expect me to acknowledge it.
However, since you felt the need to post a link to your post that explained your rationale about Xsyven and me "in case Rockin forgot",
here's the post where you admitted to blatant exaggeration in said post.
Omni's actually in an interesting position right now. The only people he is leaning on are me (without fresh substantiation) and Xsyven, the guy who flatly said he wouldn't be posting until Monday (and now isn't going to post at all).
Since I was waiting on my chance to make this big giant post, and since Xsy had already stated clearly that he wasn't going to be around, Omni has a free pass to just "wait on his suspicions" right to the deadline and play some Star Ocean. Suspicious? A little bit, but I see it more as an oversight on hs part.
Whoop. Caught up.
Here are my top suspects:
Warlord - I think he's almost definitely antitown, and I think he's probably indy. My case is well documented, and I think we have some interesting information to gain with his lynch after so much discussion.
Xsyvarshy - This is kind of an awkward time to get a replacement, but on reread his actions definitely look bizarre as all get out. Too accurate when there is plenty of ambiguity. Too unproductive in the discussion areas pushed. I really hope Marshy will be able to look over Xsy's posts and reason out some kind of rationale for it.
Wikipedia - I actually am finding him the most distressing of the coasters. His posts are so infrequent, and he seems to post just before or just after major pivots of discussion. He never engages the debates, despite his early expressions of how much he hates the RVS. Well, we've had plenty of real discussion, Wiki, and you were basically absent. A whole lot of fence-sittin', and I don't much like it, I do not.
Now, which one do I think we should lynch?
Warlord.
I think if Warlord were to flip as an indy lyncher, this would clear Macman.
I think if Warlord were to flip as an indy cultist, this would give us a great deal of people to look at on D2. Plenty of people seem to have outright dodged really investing in the Warlord debate, and that's a real shame, because it was discussion with some real meat to it. I mentioned Rockin earlier, and I think if Warlord were to flip cult, Rockin would be someone to look at during the Night and on D2.
I think if Warlord were to flip scum I'd again be interested in Rockin and other dodgers.
Lastly, if Warlord somehow flips town, I
still think we'd have a good deal of information to deal with, just based on the enormous paper trail of discussion that has used him as a fulcrum.
And now to put my money where my mouth is.
Vote: MasterWarlord
If someone can convince me of a better lynch target, this vote can move, but I feel
damn good about it, so I'd expect an equally
damn good case.