Before I go into Wiki...
anyways wiki's claim doesn't surprise me. I actually like knowing that there is a good chance he isnt mafia, makes me feel better about my suspicions.
Which suspicions does it make you feel better about, Macman? I'm bothered by the fact that you haven't continued the dialogue I've been keeping up with you, considering the fact that the majority of your points against me were based on flat-out misreading and misinterpreting what I had written or attaching your own definitions to terms I (and most people, I believe) use differently. And you haven't answered to this.
Wiki however is obviously a lower-hanging and far more distressing fruit, so I shall move on to the elephant in the room.
First we should consider the role Wiki is likely to have. I'm taking his indy claim at his face value, because when town has a mislynch mafia is not going to claim such a powerfully antitown indy role, especially not out of the blue like that. I wouldn't have been surprised to see a mafioso claim indy survivor, or some other town-joint-friendly role in endgame, but this kind of nonsense just cannot conceivably happen, no matter how badly you've been playing the game. Everything I've said about Wiki since D1 is now validated, and it clicks perfectly with how I'm read up to now. So I'm taking the claim as legit.
Moving on from there, a few possibities for his role itself:
-Serial Killer: SK would have shot by now, no question about that, so we aren't dealing with an SK. At least not in the traditional sense. However...
-Survivor: This is the one that I'm treating the most seriously. Again, I point to Scav's promise that every player has some extra juice added to them, so a Survivor with a oneshot kill makes perfect sense. Survivor is of course an almost painfully difficult role to play, so the ability to really screw with the ratio as endgame approaches is a perfect balance, and a perfect fit to the definition of "some extra juice". Plus, the oneshot daykill comes with the immediate claim of oneshot vig at no extra cost. It's the role that makes the most sense to me.
-Cult: I suggested this sometime back on D1, but I no longer consider it a possibility. When today could possibly have been mylo, on D3 already, a cult just does not balance well into the game. Town would have a nearly unwinnable scenario from the start.
-Lyncher: The second most likely possibility as I see it -- a daykill would juice up both their ability to survive in the town (claiming oneshot vig, once again) and thus town credibility. This allows them to push for particular lynches in a more dynamic fashion without being the target of lyncher suspicion. It would also give him the "juice", to really stress Scav's choice of words, to reshape the game balance to suit his agenda, if carefully calculated. I consider this less likely only because I think he would have full-claimed and said his target was dead if he was trying to appeal to town, and full-claimed, killed a townie, and then stated his target to avoid the mafia killing it at night if he was trying to appeal to mafia. If he would take this degree of risk, it simply doesn't make sense to avoid tabling his agenda for the sake of preserving it, and I thus set lyncher several rungs below survivor.
As such, I am presently operating on the assumption that Wiki is an indy survivor. His threats fit this mould as well, because he's trying to strongarm the town out of lynching him and threatening to joint with mafia, while clearly trying to appeal to it at the same time (hence the "would it help if..." tone in the first post).
Now there is the question of the power he's claiming, and the possibilities are finite.
1) Wiki is bluffing - This is possible. Wiki has generally spent most of the game in the corner and generally being evasive and lurkey. A lot of his posts which attempted to portray townieness came off as empty, fallacious, or otherwise illogical, so I don't think a gambit of this scope is all that unlikely from a Wiki with his back to the wall.
2) Wiki is NOT bluffing - This I consider unfortuantely a fair bit more possible. Even with all the above said, the majority of the spotlight was taken away from him toDay, with the only person really leaning for his lynch being Chaco who was essentially just reiterating the fact that he didn't want him around. There just wasn't much pressure, especially not in comparison to Day 1. For this reason I am more inclined to believe that he saw that he wasn't getting anywhere trying to prove himself as town, played the numbers game, and made a calculated risk. As I elaborated above, I feel a survivor is the most likely indy role we're dealing with, and I feel the ability he is claiming synchs up all too well with game balance and the role I believe he has... unfortunately.
Moving forward:
If Wiki is telling the truth in full and is antagonized further, he may snap. He can put us at even money with the mafia (in conjunction with himself), and he knows it, and plans to do it. He seems past the point of bargaining, but I think it's a front. He'd have fired off that kill already on someone widely accepted to be town if he wasn't hoping to hold this over our heads as a blackmail bargaining chip.
This is a severe dilemma. Wiki needs to be removed as a threat, and yet if we move to do so through a lynch, he threatens to shoot. Bargaining might the only option we have -- at least for now. If we lynch scum toDay and voteblock Wiki toNight we're in good shape. That's the best-case scenario that I can see, depending on what the things Macman is inferring to are. Mac, being as specific as you can
without endangering what you know, how certain are you that we can beat Wiki's scheme? I think I might have an idea what you're onto.
That's all I have for now. Based on the information we have at present, bargain --> lynch scum --> vb wiki seems like our only/best shot for this Day and Night.
