Matchup Rediscussion: Zelda vs Wario

[Kataefi]

Matchup Rediscussion: Wario
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Zelda vs Wario


- What to know about this matchup...
​

• Constantly aim to get the percent or stock lead. Though easier said than done, at least you won't have to approach him this way. Otherwise prepare to deal with air camping. Try to catch his airdodges and aerial weaves with Nairs and good use of Din's from a good space. If you really cannot catch him, immediately transform to Sheik and take that lead.

• Don't be prematurely baited. Similar to Peach and other predominantly aerial characters, Wario will be attempting to bait Zelda into a committed approach. Observe him - you do have a moveset that can outprioritise his own, but waving that moveset about carelessly loses your cool, and this is exactly what he wants. Beware of sudden uairs from him, he can do this through your shield and autocancel it.
  

• Save the Dtilt if possible, learn Jab > Dash Grab percents. You want a trip badly if you ever manage to land it. A trip leads into a grab, which leads straight into a grab release lightning kick. At later percents you want jab to hit him so you can attempt to grab him. Note: a trip also leads into a buffered bair. Wario won't fall into many Dtilts at all, but if you do catch him on trip, you have a selection to choose from depending on which kick is currently freshest.
  

• OoS Usmash. Play passive aggressive - shield his aerials and strike with fast options. OoS Usmash is your most defensive option considering he is very aerial. Keep in mind that he can also attack through your shield to avoid Usmash.
  

• Grab Release > Lightning Kick. Ways of landing a grab on Wario are limited. Try to make him whiff an Fsmash and punish it's cooldown with a grab. If possible, pivot grab some of his aerials by surprise as he comes in. Never pummel, simply force the release, jump on the spot and Fair immediately.

- Useful Information...
​

• Wario's waft is a sneaky killer. Roughly every minute his waft begins to charge up and build up damage. Over 2 minutes and he will receive a fully charged waft, capable of dealing immense damage. A waft slightly undercharged will do considerably more knockback but less damage.
  

• His bite overrides non-disjointed attacks. Go for high-priority attacks with good disjoints such as Fsmash, Ftilt and jab to strike him out of his bite animation. Bite is a throw, so if you're caught, mash buttons to escape.
  

 

[MrEh]

40-60

Honestly, Wario can aircamp Zelda all day and she simply cannot catch him. She's 3rd slowest on the ground, and Wario is 3rd fastest in the air. That does not bode well for Zelda. Zelda is force to approach because Wario is not affected by Din's onstage. He can camp, and the charging of his waft is usually enough to force Zelda to approach. Sure, you might hit him with one Din's every minute, but that's not worth the 50% charge waft you just gave him.

Wario can bait well due to his aerial movement and acceleration. He can weave in and out, bait a smash, and punish accordingly. Because Zelda is mostly ground bound, Wario will be running a lot of circles around her. (unless you try to fight Wario in the air, but why would you do that? You're going to get sheildgrabed.) And speaking of shieldgrabs, Wario has good grab range, and sheildgrabbing will happen a lot. Getting 15% from a grab is not cool.

Besides grabs, Wario's OoS game is superior to Zelda, and anything aside from a spaced Fsmash is probably going to be punished in some form. Whether it be a grab, or an aerial OoS, Zelda will probably get hit. Since Zelda's air game has no range, you're probably going to be punished if you wiff. Same thing with most of her ground moveset too.

The only reason that keeps this matchup a 40-60 is Zelda's Usmash. Without that, it would probably be 35-65.

 

[Sonic The Hedgedawg]

Zelda does a lot better defending than approaching this beast.

For that, I'd rather give him a waft then force myself to be playing his game the whole time.

Baiting's what makes this matchup hard. We can beat out anything that wario tries to approach us, but, most of the time, we have to commit to said attack. Wheras he doesn't have to commit to his approach.

The combination of Wario's baiting along with his great strength, great weight and small stature are what gives wario any sort of advantage here.

It's not a bad matchup at all considering their tier difference, but wario's allowed to make a lot more mistakes than you, and it's easier for him to trick you into making a mistake than vice versa. That's probably enough to give him up to a 60:40, but there's no way it's any worse than that.

 

[MrEh]

For that, I'd rather give him a waft then force myself to be playing his game the whole time..

Then you've just given Wario a move that kills you at 50%. Or does 40% damage.

 

[Sonic The Hedgedawg]

Then you've just given Wario a move that kills you at 50%. Or does 40% damage.

if he's just going to whack us away every time we try to approach him, it's not much better an option.

I try to force him to make the first engagement and then stick to him like velcro as long as I can.

Besides, what if his waft is fairly well charged anyway? Extra charge time means little.

 

[AlMoStLeGeNdArY]

Then you've just given Wario a move that kills you at 50%. Or does 40% damage.

Fully charged waft does 40% put the half charged one kills better.

 

[-Mars-]

6-4 Wario advantage. I really love playing this matchup though. But he kills Zelda far earlier than she kills him, he's excellent at baiting, and he wrecks her offstage.

 

[KuroganeHammer]

Motorbike > Zelda.

Although, well timed attacks (Like Din's) are able to knock him off it.

Unfortunately for Zelda, his attacks in the air are not the best of news for her.

Interesting thing here.

Zelda's grabs are better in range than Wario's. Unfortunately, she is a little on the slow side when she does that weird Johnny Bravo grab.

Also, letting Wario break free from a successful grab will let you follow up with a almost guaranteed Lightning Kick.

But that's about it.

35:65 in Wario's favour.

 

[Ochobobo]

Motorbike > Zelda.

Although, well timed attacks (Like Din's) are able to knock him off it.

Unfortunately for Zelda, his attacks in the air are not the best of news for her.

Interesting thing here.

Zelda's grabs are better in range than Wario's. Unfortunately, she is a little on the slow side when she does that weird Johnny Bravo grab.

Also, letting Wario break free from a successful grab will let you follow up with a almost guaranteed Lightning Kick.

But that's about it.

35:65 in Wario's favour.

Except Wario spends most of his time in the air, which makes it extremely difficult for Zelda, or anyone else, to grab him.

Of course when you do, then the rewards are plentiful. So go for it anyway, just be sure to not fail.

Also lol wtf Johnny Bravo grab.

 

[KuroganeHammer]

Also lol wtf Johnny Bravo grab.

You should know this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WE3d2GHBuvQ

0:23
See any striking resemblence to Zelda's grab? xD

 

[Sonic The Hedgedawg]

Motorbike > Zelda.

how do you figure that? At all. Zelda has a plethora of moves that wreck that. Including Din's fire that is RIDICULOUSLY easy to hit with if he ever goes bike bound.

Seriously. I love fighting bike-bound warios. I either keep sniping them with din's or knock them off the bike with Fsmash, nair.... hell... I've even done it with Usmash and Utilt.

Zelda > Motorbike.

Maybe Wario beats Zelda in other areas, but his bike is horrible against her.

 

[KuroganeHammer]

how do you figure that? At all. Zelda has a plethora of moves that wreck that. Including Din's fire that is RIDICULOUSLY easy to hit with if he ever goes bike bound.

Seriously. I love fighting bike-bound warios. I either keep sniping them with din's or knock them off the bike with Fsmash, nair.... hell... I've even done it with Usmash and Utilt.

Zelda > Motorbike.

Maybe Wario beats Zelda in other areas, but his bike is horrible against her.

Ok. Lets look at what the Bike can do.

Quite possibly, it is Wario's best attack.

First and foremost, you can run people over and the Bike will absorb most attacks. The Bike can do wheelies to, which further protects him.


2nd, the Bike will act like a crate, projectiles (Except Din's though) will stop, and Lightning kicks will generally be ineffective if she accidentally Lightning Kicks the Bike.

The Bike is often used by Wario Players to recover and get airborne. The Bike can be hit to refresh moves too. The Bike can also be broken for tires which get his camping game on. LOL

I think I missed some stuff, but you can see that the Bike isn't just for running people down with. It has many other uses too. Which is why:

Motorbike > Zelda.

Can anyone else post what I missed? I think the Motorbike can do other stuff too.

 

[Sonic The Hedgedawg]

Ok. Lets look at what the Bike can do.

Quite possibly, it is Wario's best attack.

First and foremost, you can run people over and the Bike will absorb most attacks. The Bike can do wheelies to, which further protects him.


2nd, the Bike will act like a crate, projectiles (Except Din's though) will stop, and Lightning kicks will generally be ineffective if she accidentally Lightning Kicks the Bike.

The Bike is often used by Wario Players to recover and get airborne. The Bike can be hit to refresh moves too. The Bike can also be broken for tires which get his camping game on. LOL

I think I missed some stuff, but you can see that the Bike isn't just for running people down with. It has many other uses too. Which is why:

Motorbike > Zelda.

Can anyone else post what I missed? I think the Motorbike can do other stuff too.

Zelda's attacks pretty much all have transendent priority and lingering hitboxes. My Fsmash extends farther from my hurtbox than wario's bike does from his. Result? If he tries to smash into me, he's going to eat an Fsmash which the bike CAN'T block for him because Zelda's Fsmash cannot be parried. Then he'll fly off the bike which will drop in front of Zelda who will remain unscathed, whether wario wheelies or not.

As for projectiles, it's pretty much the same story as DDD's Waddle dees. Works great against most projectiles by blocking them with thier own hitboxes but, unfortunately for Wario in this case, he cannot block din's with it. Din's has a huge hitbox that doesn't require precision to knock him off and, unless you're playing with smashballs for some utterly inane reason, he's not going to be moving fast enough to avoid din's blowing up in his face.

As far as recovery, wario's recovery is really good so, if you don't kill him, he's going to make it back as long as he's got a bike to do so. But, if he has to pull the bike out, it should pretty much be a free opportunity for Zelda to blast him with a fully charged Din's which results in 16% free damage or a KO at very high damages. Free damage is always nice, even if it's not an exceptional amount.

I suppose, wary of din's, he could wait out pulling out the bike and attempt to recover from below the stage, but, unless he's got a fart ready, he's pretty vulnerable to a spike from above... even zelda's ****ty spike. Wario's normally don't do this though, if they have to use the bike, they normally just accept the Din's damage.

As for wario attacking with the bike as if it were a crate, if you are losing to warios who enjoy grabbing their bikes and chucking them at you.......... I have nothing to say to that. Really, I'm speachless.



In summary:
Is wario good? yes.
Is wario's bike normally good? yes
Is wario's bike nearly as effective against Zelda as it is other characters? no
Does that mean wario is bad against Zelda? no. he makes up for it in other places.

 

[JigglyZelda003]

wasn't there something mentioned about a super wheelie KO?

and why are we talking about the bike? unless its some noob riding about i have rarely seen Warios pull that out unless its on recovery.....

 

[KayLo!]

As for wario attacking with the bike as if it were a crate, if you are losing to warios who enjoy grabbing their bikes and chucking them at you.......... I have nothing to say to that. Really, I'm speachless.

I believe he was just saying that the Bike, as an object on the stage (similar to a crate), will stop projectiles and act as a pseudo-shield for Wario against incoming attacks.

But this works for Zelda as well as Wario, and Din's goes around it anyway, so I'm not sure what his point really was.

Jiggly's right, though: most Warios will be using their Bike for recovery only, though they do have some Bike combos and may occasionally whip it out on-stage. As Zelda, it's pretty easy to counter on reaction, though, since fsmash > Bike.

 

[Kataefi]

Or just lightning kick it =p

 

[sniperworm]

wasn't there something mentioned about a super wheelie KO?

I believe you're referring to MorphedChaos's posts from the original discussion.

Oh, don't take Wario to any stage with a slant unless you have a death-wish, Bike through your Fsmash or Usmash while doing a Wheele on a hill means you get oneshotted from 0% to death. Not to mention Wario jumps so high that it'll take at least a minute for him to come back down....

Basically how the glitch works, When wario is going up into wheele position on a slope, if he is hit, he gains an enormous burst of speed, which gives him the KO potential of a Home Run Bat, and makes him jump so high that he takes a very long time (30+ seconds) to come down. If you somehow manage to survive, it also hits from anywhere to 30-80 damage. Its situational, and very few Warios know how to do it, but yeah, thats how you do it. If you go on a stage with a slope, watch out! And he can do this on minor slopes like the ones on Yoshi's island, or the tilting of Lylat.

Video proof:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nuyf219KbfQ

I believe it was concluded that this does not effect the matchup in a significant way, but it's something that's good to know about.

 

[Ochobobo]

Video proof:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nuyf219KbfQ

I believe it was concluded that this does not effect the matchup in a significant way, but it's something that's good know about.

Wow, that's ridiculous. Good thing Zelda players normally ban Yoshi's Island, lol. Apparently a flatter stage should be in order, such as Battlefield... which happens to be Zelda's best unbanned stage anyway, lol.

 

[AlMoStLeGeNdArY]

So which of Wario's moves beat out up smash?

 

[JigglyZelda003]

i don't think any of them can they don't disjoint. he can only just bait it out and retaliate, but can't his airdodge go through it?

 

[AlMoStLeGeNdArY]

i don't think any of them can they don't disjoint. he can only just bait it out and retaliate, but can't his airdodge go through it?

I don't know but if the zelda player baits the air dodge then wario is ****ed right? What's the point of even discussing baiting?

Wario can air camp but none of his aerials can beat out Zelda's up smash doesn't that force him to approach from the ground where zelda can use her superior range and ****?

 

[KuroganeHammer]

Zelda's attacks pretty much all have transendent priority and lingering hitboxes. My Fsmash extends farther from my hurtbox than wario's bike does from his. Result? If he tries to smash into me, he's going to eat an Fsmash which the bike CAN'T block for him because Zelda's Fsmash cannot be parried. Then he'll fly off the bike which will drop in front of Zelda who will remain unscathed, whether wario wheelies or not.

As for projectiles, it's pretty much the same story as DDD's Waddle dees. Works great against most projectiles by blocking them with thier own hitboxes but, unfortunately for Wario in this case, he cannot block din's with it. Din's has a huge hitbox that doesn't require precision to knock him off and, unless you're playing with smashballs for some utterly inane reason, he's not going to be moving fast enough to avoid din's blowing up in his face.

As far as recovery, wario's recovery is really good so, if you don't kill him, he's going to make it back as long as he's got a bike to do so. But, if he has to pull the bike out, it should pretty much be a free opportunity for Zelda to blast him with a fully charged Din's which results in 16% free damage or a KO at very high damages. Free damage is always nice, even if it's not an exceptional amount.

I suppose, wary of din's, he could wait out pulling out the bike and attempt to recover from below the stage, but, unless he's got a fart ready, he's pretty vulnerable to a spike from above... even zelda's ****ty spike. Wario's normally don't do this though, if they have to use the bike, they normally just accept the Din's damage.

As for wario attacking with the bike as if it were a crate, if you are losing to warios who enjoy grabbing their bikes and chucking them at you.......... I have nothing to say to that. Really, I'm speachless.



In summary:
Is wario good? yes.
Is wario's bike normally good? yes
Is wario's bike nearly as effective against Zelda as it is other characters? no
Does that mean wario is bad against Zelda? no. he makes up for it in other places.

Well that's ok then. If Zelda is better than Wario's bike, then my guess of the matchup should be more 40-60 then because of this:

i have rarely seen Warios pull that out unless its on recovery.....

 

[Half-Split Soul]

I don't know but if the zelda player baits the air dodge then wario is ****ed right? What's the point of even discussing baiting?

Wario can air camp but none of his aerials can beat out Zelda's up smash doesn't that force him to approach from the ground where zelda can use her superior range and ****?

The point of talking about baiting is that Wario is so darn good in it and Zelda isn´t. It´s true that this is a MU where Zelda doesn´t need to approach, but actually neither does Wario. He has no worries about Din and can camp so good it´s not even fun, so the one approaching is the one in stock disadvantage (better pray it´s Wario...).

Even when Wario has to approach, his high aerial movement and fast high-priority aerials make it easy to bait Zelda´s U-smash and get past her defenses, while Zelda has huge problems when she has to approach Wario. This is why it´s his advantage.

 

[KuroganeHammer]

The point of talking about baiting is that Wario is so darn good in it and Zelda isn´t. It´s true that this is a MU where Zelda doesn´t need to approach, but actually neither does Wario. He has no worries about Din and can camp so good it´s not even fun, so the one approaching is the one in stock disadvantage (better pray it´s Wario...).

Even when Wario has to approach, his high aerial movement and fast high-priority aerials make it easy to bait Zelda´s U-smash and get past her defenses, while Zelda has huge problems when she has to approach Wario. This is why it´s his advantage.

Wario's air dodge is also 10 frames faster than Zelda's too. And like you say about Zelda's U-smash, it's takes a while to finish which leaves Zelda somewhat vunerable to Wario.

 

[AlMoStLeGeNdArY]

The point of talking about baiting is that Wario is so darn good in it and Zelda isn´t. It´s true that this is a MU where Zelda doesn´t need to approach, but actually neither does Wario. He has no worries about Din and can camp so good it´s not even fun, so the one approaching is the one in stock disadvantage (better pray it´s Wario...).

Even when Wario has to approach, his high aerial movement and fast high-priority aerials make it easy to bait Zelda´s U-smash and get past her defenses, while Zelda has huge problems when she has to approach Wario. This is why it´s his advantage.

Let's say wario isn't baiting the up smash how does the match go?

 

[JigglyZelda003]

Let's say wario isn't baiting the up smash how does the match go?

then hes air camping somewhere or walking around

 

[goodkid]

We still have Nair to beat out his air-dodging, but of course he could just bait that w/ an aerial.

 

[AlMoStLeGeNdArY]

then hes air camping somewhere or walking around

if he's air camping and not baiting the up smash since none of his aerials beat out up smash how does the character zelda not have an advantage over the character wario?

 

[JigglyZelda003]

his baiting tactics>Zeldas and other reasons why hes better than us has already been stated somewhere abound here.

 

[Sonic The Hedgedawg]

Let's say wario isn't baiting the up smash how does the match go?

if he's not baiting us, he's not winning.... but if he's not baiting us, he's hardly a wario worth playing.

 

[Half-Split Soul]

if he's air camping and not baiting the up smash since none of his aerials beat out up smash how does the character zelda not have an advantage over the character wario?

The thing is this: when talking about matchups we need to take into consideration more than just theorycrafting while eliminating any advantages that would come from the differences between players´skills. On the other hand, we can´t assume that they´re played by computers that never make mistakes as that would lead into a situation where neither character will ever get hit and every match would last for infinity. This is why we are assuming that both characters are played at the highest level but by real people. This leads into the fact that both sides will make mistakes and use mindgames.

Now here´s the hard part: these mistakes and mindgames must be taken into consideration but only in the theoretical aspect. If some character has very easy time baiting the other or can make much more mistakes in the match it must be acknowledged in the MU ratio, but that´s as far as we can go to keep the discussion based on the characters instead of players.

So yes, if Wario wasn´t baiting at all Zelda would maybe have an advantage, but in the highest level of play he has so easy time baiting Zelda into mistakes and taking advantages of these that it must be taken into consideration. This combined with all the other things he has on her leads into his advantage.

 

[Sonic The Hedgedawg]

Look at it this way maybe:

First:
Look at parameters.

• Wario has a better recovery, smaller stature and higher weight than zelda, making him statistically more difficult to KO. Furthermore , he hits a harder (neither by a large margin nor by a small one). (I belive that wario has the BEST Weight/Size ratio and the only character whose Weight/Size ratio is worse than Zelda's is Sheik.)

This is an absolute shuttout for wario.



Second
How easily can Wario beat Zelda or vice versa.
Why? Because parameter advantages (Ganondorf over sheik, for example) mean little if the other character can override them with superior strategic advantages.

• In this case, from a purely statistical viewpoint, Zelda outprioritizes any approach wario could conceivably use so long as she responds with the correct attack. Wario does not share the same advantage as Zelda in this sense, Wario cannot outprioritize the attacks Zelda would conceivably use to attack him if she's closing the distance.
  Wario is faster in the air and on the ground.
  But Zelda has a projectile, Wario does not. It's not a good projectile, but, if neither character wants to approach the whole match, Zelda's the only one who has a chance of dealing damage. Zelda also has more range and priority.
  Wario is capable of pulling out a bike to allow him to move quickly and more safely into many battles, but it can't beat out a properly chosen Zelda defense.
  Wario also has what is essentially a 1 hit KO with his bike given an uneven terrain.
  Zelda's parameters make her hard to combo, but wario isn't really a combo oriented character anyway.

From this data alone, Zelda has a marked advantage.
Stopping at this step suggests that, while it's a lot harder for Zelda to kill Wario than vice versa, Zelda is infinitely adept at wracking damage at such a favourable ratio compared to her competitor that it doesn't matter. This is before the OHKO with the bike which would, of course, give wario a free win unless zelda can outprioritize it with Fsmash as she often can.




Third:
Do matchup specific counters exist? What are they?

• Zelda can grab release wario into a lightning kick and beat out wario's bike fairly easily
  Wario's mobility combined with zelda's low mobility allow wario to camp (albeit non agressively) zelda even without a projectile.

These counters seem to tip the matchup more in zelda's favour as it gives her a great option for a KO and a reliable way to punish a normally good approach. Wario's ability to camp w/o a projectile certainly helps him (it's more like "waiting-out" than camping), but the two advantages Zelda has seem infinitely better especially considering everything we've seen thus far points to Zelda having a damage advantage.

• this is the limit of where theory-crafting can make any definite comments. Anything beyond that is speculation.

..... but speculation isn't necessarily wrong just because it can't be impirically proven through frame data.
Fourth:
How practical is it that either character will employ all the advantages given above?

• Obviously, parameters are a given. Wario will always be smaller, faster, heavier, stronger and superior at recovering. Zelda will always have higher range and priority.
• Zelda always countering wario's approach comes down to two things:
  • 1st - Which character has the burden of prediction or baiting? Is it the defending character, or the agressing one?
    • In Zelda as the defender case, it's probably wario, Zelda has more than one option to counter any commited approach wario makes.
    • In the Wario as the defender case, it's definitely Zelda who has to be smarter and trickier. Zelda's approaches are easy for most characters to counter. Wario is no exception
  • 2nd - How easy is it for one character to bait--or, inversly--predict the other?
    • Wario's incredibly high aerial mobility and quick aerials, combined with Zelda's commited defenses, and more limited defense options, lead wario to have a rather huge baiting advantage.
    • Zelda, on the other hand, is very commited in all she does and lacks many options in most situations. She's probably not going to bait well.
  As for wario's bike instant KO and Zelda's din's. Din's is FAR more likely to hit, and that's saying something because it's not very likely to hit much in the matchup unless Wario is preoccupied with bike riding, recovering or something like that.
• As for matchup specific advantages:
  • Zelda has a ****ty jab and wario is hard to grab. Zelda is MORE likely to just hit wario with a random lightning kick, and that's not likely. It's certainly a nice thing to have if you DO grab him from the air, but don't try fot it.
  • Zelda can easily punish Wario's bike approach, but he doesn't have to use to bike approach, so it's not a HUGE advantage, but it does limit wario to some extent... if only he didn't have so many spare options.
  • Wario's waiting-it-out, while simple, frustrating and "cheap" by some definitions (but obviouslt not the "anything to win" mentality), is completey functional in the matchup whenever wario has a damage advantage.

So what's this say? It says that Zelda's so called advantages are all well and good if both players are psychic and incapable of being tricked, yes, Zelda is incapable of being hit by Wario. But, in any realistic arena, even a pro Zelda will not be able to read an equally skilled Wario often enough to maintain her earlier alleged advantage. Wario will deal too much damage when he ruptures her defenses and, while not mentioned earlier, a well known fact is that, when knocked off of her game, especially while airborne, Zelda has a really hard time fighting back and is not adept, but not horrible at regaining composure. (closer to horrible than adept though in this matchup where she's so severly outsped in the air.)

• what's theorycrafting say here? Well... this step of matchup analysis can oly suggest indefinite probability, not definite data. As such, this step is normally used to explain why matchups play certain ways after real-life data contradicts theoretical data. Which leads, ieveitably to...

Fifth
What does real-life data and experience say about this matchup?

• in many ways, simultaneously, the most simple and most complicated part of matchup evaluation. IT's quite simply: what happens in real-life? Who wins the most? Who places the higest in tournaments? does the matchup play out, for the most part, as predicted? If not, is there an obvious flaw in earlier judgement that can be corrected, or a new strategic discovery to explain this discrepency? If not, there are a few quick possibilities to explain this paradox:
  • Does one character have a grossly larger number of users?
  • Does one character have much BETTER users? (If the best players in the world all use one of the two characters and no one of relatively comparable skill uses the other, there'd be a clear difference)
  • Is the matchup so rarely fought that neither side knows what avantages they should have on the other?
  • similarly, are the desired styles to beat the other character just not used?
  • Are stage counterpicks capable of vastly swaying the outcome of a matchup? (Luigi's mansion does it for Zelda a lot.)
  If these answers don't work, we'll have to explore the matchup deeper to see why.

Zelda vs. Wario, however, the matchup's outcome seems pretty obvious by step 4 since that's exactly how it plays out. Wario's comparitive ability to bait Zelda over Zelda's inability to bait wario marginalizes Zelda's ability to outprioritize Wario and augments Wario's parameter advantages out of the gate. It's no secret that Zelda is horribly underrepresented both en masse and in upper eschelon play. While that fact makes gives our understanding of the matchup a little wiggle room, it seems unlikely at this point that a professional Zelda should be beating a professional Wario more than once a set, even with stage counterpicks.
Even so, it's also relatively considered a matchup that is winnable because Zelda DOES have advantages over wario that he cannot avoid foerver, and, while being great at baiting Zelda, he won't do so with 100% success rates or even close.
In short, Zelda can win this, albeit an uphill battle for zelda, which means it's probably false to call it a hard counter or anything like that.


Now... what's zelda have to do to give herself the best fighting chance?

 

[MrEh]

That's a wall of text that I'm not going to read. I'll answer the final question though.


If Zelda wants to win, you gotta play better. If both players are familiar with the matchup, you mind as well add an extra 5 points to your opponent's ratio. Zelda is hella predictable once both players learn the matchup, and in order to use her, you gotta predict and mindgame like crazy. Sadly, that's a player specific thing, not a character specific one.

Zelda has no particular trait that shuts Wario down. Just learn how to shield. lol

 

[Sonic The Hedgedawg]

That's a wall of text that I'm not going to read.

you probably don't need to. It's just a generalized approach to matchup evaluation using Zelda V. Wario as a template. It probably doesn't say anything that you don't already know, but there are many here who seem a touch more naïve.


as for what Zelda needs to do to win. Don't get baited as much... easier said than done, but superior mindgames are the best, if not the only way to more reliably win this matchup. If he can't bait you, he can't really hit you, but, good luck with that whole not letting him bait you thing. (not sure if you can really do anything but recognize and remember patterns, if the wario player has them.)

Work REALLY hard to maintain the stocl/damage advantage. We're better if he has to approach than vice versa.

Other than that, just learn what spacing works best against your particular oponent. It's a case by case basis, but it's important to try to get that down as well as possible.

 

[AlMoStLeGeNdArY]

if he's not baiting us, he's not winning.... but if he's not baiting us, he's hardly a wario worth playing.

That's a player though not the character and TBH if you know he's going try to bait don't through out your up smashes as fast and actually read your opponent don't just go durr durr he baits i spam upsmash I lose keep it moving.

Look at it this way maybe:

First:
Look at parameters.

• Wario has a better recovery, smaller stature and higher weight than zelda, making him statistically more difficult to KO. Furthermore , he hits a harder (neither by a large margin nor by a small one). (I belive that wario has the BEST Weight/Size ratio and the only character whose Weight/Size ratio is worse than Zelda's is Sheik.)

This is an absolute shuttout for wario.



Second
How easily can Wario beat Zelda or vice versa.
Why? Because parameter advantages (Ganondorf over sheik, for example) mean little if the other character can override them with superior strategic advantages.

• In this case, from a purely statistical viewpoint, Zelda outprioritizes any approach wario could conceivably use so long as she responds with the correct attack. Wario does not share the same advantage as Zelda in this sense, Wario cannot outprioritize the attacks Zelda would conceivably use to attack him if she's closing the distance.
  Wario is faster in the air and on the ground.
  But Zelda has a projectile, Wario does not. It's not a good projectile, but, if neither character wants to approach the whole match, Zelda's the only one who has a chance of dealing damage. Zelda also has more range and priority.
  Wario is capable of pulling out a bike to allow him to move quickly and more safely into many battles, but it can't beat out a properly chosen Zelda defense.
  Wario also has what is essentially a 1 hit KO with his bike given an uneven terrain.
  Zelda's parameters make her hard to combo, but wario isn't really a combo oriented character anyway.

From this data alone, Zelda has a marked advantage.
Stopping at this step suggests that, while it's a lot harder for Zelda to kill Wario than vice versa, Zelda is infinitely adept at wracking damage at such a favourable ratio compared to her competitor that it doesn't matter. This is before the OHKO with the bike which would, of course, give wario a free win unless zelda can outprioritize it with Fsmash as she often can.




Third:
Do matchup specific counters exist? What are they?

• Zelda can grab release wario into a lightning kick and beat out wario's bike fairly easily
  Wario's mobility combined with zelda's low mobility allow wario to camp (albeit non agressively) zelda even without a projectile.

These counters seem to tip the matchup more in zelda's favour as it gives her a great option for a KO and a reliable way to punish a normally good approach. Wario's ability to camp w/o a projectile certainly helps him (it's more like "waiting-out" than camping), but the two advantages Zelda has seem infinitely better especially considering everything we've seen thus far points to Zelda having a damage advantage.

• this is the limit of where theory-crafting can make any definite comments. Anything beyond that is speculation.

..... but speculation isn't necessarily wrong just because it can't be impirically proven through frame data.
Fourth:
How practical is it that either character will employ all the advantages given above?

• Obviously, parameters are a given. Wario will always be smaller, faster, heavier, stronger and superior at recovering. Zelda will always have higher range and priority.
• Zelda always countering wario's approach comes down to two things:
  • 1st - Which character has the burden of prediction or baiting? Is it the defending character, or the agressing one?
    • In Zelda as the defender case, it's probably wario, Zelda has more than one option to counter any commited approach wario makes.
    • In the Wario as the defender case, it's definitely Zelda who has to be smarter and trickier. Zelda's approaches are easy for most characters to counter. Wario is no exception
  • 2nd - How easy is it for one character to bait--or, inversly--predict the other?
    • Wario's incredibly high aerial mobility and quick aerials, combined with Zelda's commited defenses, and more limited defense options, lead wario to have a rather huge baiting advantage.
    • Zelda, on the other hand, is very commited in all she does and lacks many options in most situations. She's probably not going to bait well.
  As for wario's bike instant KO and Zelda's din's. Din's is FAR more likely to hit, and that's saying something because it's not very likely to hit much in the matchup unless Wario is preoccupied with bike riding, recovering or something like that.
• As for matchup specific advantages:
  • Zelda has a ****ty jab and wario is hard to grab. Zelda is MORE likely to just hit wario with a random lightning kick, and that's not likely. It's certainly a nice thing to have if you DO grab him from the air, but don't try fot it.
  • Zelda can easily punish Wario's bike approach, but he doesn't have to use to bike approach, so it's not a HUGE advantage, but it does limit wario to some extent... if only he didn't have so many spare options.
  • Wario's waiting-it-out, while simple, frustrating and "cheap" by some definitions (but obviouslt not the "anything to win" mentality), is completey functional in the matchup whenever wario has a damage advantage.

So what's this say? It says that Zelda's so called advantages are all well and good if both players are psychic and incapable of being tricked, yes, Zelda is incapable of being hit by Wario. But, in any realistic arena, even a pro Zelda will not be able to read an equally skilled Wario often enough to maintain her earlier alleged advantage. Wario will deal too much damage when he ruptures her defenses and, while not mentioned earlier, a well known fact is that, when knocked off of her game, especially while airborne, Zelda has a really hard time fighting back and is not adept, but not horrible at regaining composure. (closer to horrible than adept though in this matchup where she's so severly outsped in the air.)

• what's theorycrafting say here? Well... this step of matchup analysis can oly suggest indefinite probability, not definite data. As such, this step is normally used to explain why matchups play certain ways after real-life data contradicts theoretical data. Which leads, ieveitably to...

Fifth
What does real-life data and experience say about this matchup?

• in many ways, simultaneously, the most simple and most complicated part of matchup evaluation. IT's quite simply: what happens in real-life? Who wins the most? Who places the higest in tournaments? does the matchup play out, for the most part, as predicted? If not, is there an obvious flaw in earlier judgement that can be corrected, or a new strategic discovery to explain this discrepency? If not, there are a few quick possibilities to explain this paradox:
  • Does one character have a grossly larger number of users?
  • Does one character have much BETTER users? (If the best players in the world all use one of the two characters and no one of relatively comparable skill uses the other, there'd be a clear difference)
  • Is the matchup so rarely fought that neither side knows what avantages they should have on the other?
  • similarly, are the desired styles to beat the other character just not used?
  • Are stage counterpicks capable of vastly swaying the outcome of a matchup? (Luigi's mansion does it for Zelda a lot.)
  If these answers don't work, we'll have to explore the matchup deeper to see why.

Zelda vs. Wario, however, the matchup's outcome seems pretty obvious by step 4 since that's exactly how it plays out. Wario's comparitive ability to bait Zelda over Zelda's inability to bait wario marginalizes Zelda's ability to outprioritize Wario and augments Wario's parameter advantages out of the gate. It's no secret that Zelda is horribly underrepresented both en masse and in upper eschelon play. While that fact makes gives our understanding of the matchup a little wiggle room, it seems unlikely at this point that a professional Zelda should be beating a professional Wario more than once a set, even with stage counterpicks.
Even so, it's also relatively considered a matchup that is winnable because Zelda DOES have advantages over wario that he cannot avoid foerver, and, while being great at baiting Zelda, he won't do so with 100% success rates or even close.
In short, Zelda can win this, albeit an uphill battle for zelda, which means it's probably false to call it a hard counter or anything like that.


Now... what's zelda have to do to give herself the best fighting chance?

So is it impossible for zelda to bait Wario?

@Mr. Eh I agree with you Zelda needing to play better.

 

[mountain_tiger]

(I belive that wario has the BEST Weight/Size ratio and the only character whose Weight/Size ratio is worse than Zelda's is Sheik.)

ZSS' is worse IIRC. Though Zelda's is pretty bad...

60:40 in Wario's favour sounds about right, IMO. That USmash really helps Zelda out here.

 

[Sonic The Hedgedawg]

So is it impossible for zelda to bait Wario?

No. It's just much harder for Zelda to bait wario than vice versa.

 

[gm jack]

ZSS' is worse IIRC. Though Zelda's is pretty bad...

60:40 in Wario's favour sounds about right, IMO. That USmash really helps Zelda out here.

I shuts down a fair few of approach options. However, Wario rarely needs to commit, so he can just weave away and punish the cool down.

 

[Sonic The Hedgedawg]

I shuts down a fair few of approach options. However, Wario rarely needs to commit, so he can just weave away and punish the cool down.

if it weren't for that, the matchup would be even less in wario's favour