Majora's Mask Mafia | Game Over!

[Sir Bedevere]

Dang OS, be nice if you said something useful for once.

Lynch or no lynch?

hurr durr

---

Well, I don't see any reason to hold this back, so might as well say this now:

We have a pretty good chance of finding people who aren't the abductor or mafia by looking at any breadcrumbing that Nabe/Dastrn did, or simply guess who they would have jailed based on their stances and such (although that's much less reliable). With 4 people alive, finding even one person who was jailed on the Night there was an abducton will be crucial. I think that's what adum's looking for too.

The only problem I see is Dastrn was pretty inactive and noncontributing and might not have thought to crumb that, but Nabe seemed like a good player and I could see him crumbing, and so long as he jailed not-X1 (which is possible), we might have a clear.

I'm pretty strapped down right now, but I think I can find some time later today to do a reread and look for those crumbs.

^Mostly throwing this out there so people can do it themselves if they have the time, or so they can point out that there's a flaw or something and prevent me/us from wasting time.

 

[Overswarm]

Any crumb-finding today is a worthwhile endeavor, but probably won't be an end-all. Dastrn was inactive and Nabe was here only for a Day.

We basically need to decide who is most likely to be the abductor and lynch. There's not much else to toDay unless Adumbrodeus gives us something new.

 

[DtJ Hilt]

Day Four Vote Count
[1] Sir Bedevere: Frozenflame

[3] Not Voting: Overswarm, Sir Bedevere, Adumbrodeus

Day Four will end November 19th at 3:00 PM.
With four players remaining it takes three votes to lynch.

 

[adumbrodeus]

Ok, so I REALLY hate dastrn now, lying town are so hard to analyze post-flip.


Initially I thought his post about swiss on 659 showed that he jailkept, then i checked around a bit more.


This post sort of made me suspicious:

In general, I support Lynch all Liars. The problem is that this game is a psychosocial experiment combined with a game-theory experiment. Therefore, there can't be absolutes.

And then we have Nabe specifically say that he didn't have such a result on swiss:

My answer is the same: I don't have a result that suggests that Swiss dodged a bullet. I can certainly look at the fact that Swiss was abducted, and the fact that there was no NK, and draw a possible line between the two, but anyone could do that.

Again, I have to say that I think Dast was trying to project a large role to make himself NK bait. That's the only reasonable conclusion I can draw.

This suggests that dastrn was explicitly lying, and planted a false breadcrumb... ****ing dumb***.


So, I analyzed his positions and looked at who he was most likely to protect.

Adumbrodeus, Swiss, and X1 are scum.

vocal is town.
OS is town.

2 townpicks, and out of these 2, one of them is clearly more useful to town, who would he protect here?


Going from that angle, who was the clear NK choice? OS was pretty obvious town at that point while town had yet to acknowledge it openly as a whole, and managed to get him to l-1 the same day, making him a non-obvious protect choice in spite of this.


Given the combination of him being a strong NK target at the time, and the jailkeeper having him as a townpick, I can say that the most likely cause of the no kill was that OS was jailkept that day.


Since jailkeeper would block abduction, that would make OS not the abductor, so I don't think OS is the abductor.


Unfortunately since all I really have to go on is townpicks and how it lined up with a NK choice (and how he didn't target swiss) I have no option for N1. Furthermore, Nabe didn't seem to drop any breadcrumbs for his target last night, and didn't even really give a good town/scum list, so I don't see anything to analyze.


Ok, did I miss anything?





As far as are remaining people, I think both bedevere and FF are scum, my next project is to ISO both of them and see who needs to die toDay, and who needs to die tomorrow.

 

[#HBC | FrozeηFlame]

From my experience with the role, I was under the impression that players who get jailed at night are informed of being jailed.

Adumbs analysis don't seem out of line; makes sense as a potential alternative to a simultaneous NK+Abduct. Really isn't any hard info we have to discern which is more likely though.

Unless of course OS willing to or ever able to confirm/deny he was jailed.

But yeah, the sooner the better here adumb considering your vote is the swing vote here it seems.

 

[adumbrodeus]

I'm here and working on my bedevere iso now, been doing that since I re-opened FF7 redux actually.


I'll post the iso as soon as I'm done with a small conclusion, then do the iso for you with a short conclusion, then post my overall conclusion.

 

[adumbrodeus]

Ok, here's my bedevere iso, I touched on all the posts which stood out to me as helping give a read.


Sir Bedevere iso:

Spoiler

uhh ignore me agreeing with DanGR's post on adum, I think I misread. :<



Nowhere near as scummy-looking as you. :D

also no



i am styrofoam

And also mostly skimmed before I joined. :<



You can also just go into Dgames, find the thread of the game you want to ISO someone in, look for the number under the "Replies" header (for Majora's Mask, and with my post, it should be the number 328), click on the number, then click on the number correponding to the player you want to ISO under the "Posts" header (for Roxy, it'd be 31), and voila, all their posts.

/notontopic



By scaled, I mean your opinion of Vocal has transitioned, deescalated, changed (etc.) in such a logical and smooth way (i.e. no "why did he suddenly think that?"s) that your change of opinion must have either been legitimate (aka you're town) or faked (aka you're scum), and you're new enough to mafia that I think I can say with reasonable certainty that you aren't scum.

I'll explain this first.



When I first saw this post, I knee-jerked and thought "wait wtf wasn't he just saying recently that he wanted Vocal lynched? what's going on". But then I read on:









Your opinion went from "hmm townie vibes, he's alright" to "uhh, better watch it there, not seeing why you're doing that" to "yo wtf man, what are you doing" to "omfg please lynch him". IMO, a perfectly reasoned and scaled reaction to a person's playstyle/actions, and not one that jumps extremes.

As for the other thing, mindset was probably a bad choice of word. :x I more or less meant that I liked some of the stances and points you've made throughout the game. I either thought the same thing as you, or was like "oh yeah", makes sense" when you said them. That, and I'm getting town vibes from you, and the town vibes I get in the early game are usually my strongest.



I don't agree with your read on the situation, but how did you come to conclusion that specifically one of them was mafia? Was it only because of the way they were playing the exchange? Also, are you really willing to trust your one read on this situation enough to make a lynch based on the logic of your read?

@BSL

Can't tell you if it's a common occurrence, because I've only seen it a few times in the games I've played. Obviously you shouldn't just believe the person when they say it lol, though I don't think that's what you were saying. Probably best to just ignore it when you see it, but when it comes to a case like Dastrn where he basically just claimed without pressure, we're probably going to have to deal with the issue eventually.

The agreement is clear skimming and then he admits to skimming.


Town read hard-on for Dangr noted.

Defensiveness with dastrn noted.

i call them talkies :D



"hey guys, i got this role where my only ability is to vote, but what's the good in that if i don't know who to vote for?"

"hey guys, i have this ability that let's me determine someone's alignment, but i don't know who the mafia are!"

"hey guys, i have the power to protect anyone at night from night kills, but unless i figure out who the mafia are going to target, I don't see any point in using my ability..."

I'm over exaggerating, but really, there was no reason for you to claim like this. :/ Do you regularly claim D1 whenever you're a VT? Because that's effectively what you've done here, at least in your eyes. Yeah, OK, we don't gain anything from you hiding your role from us; but what do we gain? "Oh, ok, he's an almost VT, guess he's obvtown and we're never lynching him, score 1 cleared townie for town" is not gonna fly.

As for using it...there's a use for every role, even if it isn't obvious. Find it. Don't ask town for help or you'll look like the 3 examples above.

^above would be more relevant if you hadn't followed with saying you thought of a potential use, but this is all for, more or less, future reference

I have no idea how we're going to handle Dastrn's claim (except for maybe ignore it), but I do think that Dastrn isn't the play today. Someone please lynch Roxy if he doesn't contribute within a day or so, cus I don't want to be scrambling at the end (he's at L-2 currently, unless someone voted or unvoted since the last vote count).

also



omg arsonist slip lynch: dastrn the arsonist

This post is odd, it sort of feels like role fishing, but at the same time potential buddying.

uhh

Why did scum kill BSL? I ISO'd him, he had like no connections to anyone (he essentially FOS'd OS, that was it). Does anyone have any reliable scum meta on a player in this game who always likes to kill players who have few connections? Or is that just something people sometimes do as scum. >_>

why did they take my dangr away :<

os bandwagon seems fun

vote: os

Railing at NA results with no analysis of them, classic scumtell.

Choice of Dangr for abduction is interesting.

As scum, I think the best kill targets are people who are active and do protown things, but not the person who is MOST protown (aka the most likely person for a doc target). I don't think killing inactives/useless players/weaker players are very good for the mafia at all, because in all likelihood, town is going to end up mislynching them anyway. Who they went after/how right they were about who was town/mafia is not really important; the only thing that matters is that they're active and good players, and thus a threat. In that vein, I think Swiss/Dastrn/Pierre would all be pretty good kill targets (and it looks like the Abducter agrees with me). If I had to choose one, it'd probably be Pierre.

However, after thinking about it, in this situation, and looking at what OS said, killing BSL was also acceptable, since we didn't really get much info out of him/Roxy/Dangr leaving us. It just wasn't the first NK choice that immediately came to me (omg wifom).

@X1, I remember skimming it, but I barely remember anything from it.

An Abductor is an Independent role that, during the Night, can abduct any player, which is what happened to Dangr (can't post, can't be killed, etc). Like an SK, they win when they're the only one left, but if they get killed before then, all the people he abducted come back into the game and play resumes as normal.

Does abducting have precedence over killing? If so we might get to make the mafia claim in a 3-man lylo situation since they'll lose if they lynch a townie/we'll lose if we lynch the scum.

@mod, if an abductor were to exist in this game, would their abducting abilities occur before any night killing abilities (specifically, the mafia's ability to night kill), or at the same time, or after?

Concentrating on the abductor so much so early, I find this extremely interesting.

It was kinda obvious yesterday that I was buddying DangR (since he was, to me at least, obvtown), so I was sad to see him go. Was hoping that my certainty in his towniness would push him into "obv doc target range" and thus a bad scum target, but I don't think abductors care about docs. :<

This entire line of thought is kinda WIFOMy, anyway.



I had/have the same gut read as Swiss (and possibly X1).

If anyone else wants to hop on board, my vote be there. :3



Agreed sentiments.



There's no way to prove that I did or did not legitimately think that BSL was a good NK choice, at least until after OS explained why. Unless you can quote my post and point out exactly where I was specifically trying to appear unknowledgeable, I'm going to call BS. I mean, I'm not even sure how to defend from this lol. All I know is that you're wrong.

@dastrn



why haven't you responded to this yet. :<

@adum, DangR, as I said, might have been a good doc target, and thus someone to potentially stay away from. Swiss sometimes acts pretty scummy on his own, although he'd probably be my second choice. Pierre, though somewhat inactive, is the unknown, and was already hyped in the game to be a strong player. I've seen him play and I know he's good, so taking out strong threats early in the game before they really get a chance to get stuff done is an obvious boon to scum.

yo yo teachin the scum how to scum

which question?

Posts even more material on the abductor and buddying dangr from within abductor-land.


It's good to note that generally abductors do not get affected by doc protects, so it made a great deal of sense for an abductor to attempt to concentrate obvious-townness into his abduction target to create more viable mislynches.

oh, and I can't remember who said it, but the Abductor is DEFINITELY more of a threat right now than mafia. If both toDay's lynch and mafia's NK fail to hit abductor, and we fail toMorrow too, the mafia will either have to correctly guess who the abductor is or no kill or we all lose (mafia AND town). Abductor is gonna end this game way faster than normal if we don't get him soon. Doesn't really change much (I mean, we'd be a blessed town if we could make the decision between lynching a mafiat and lynching the abductor, lol), but I'd look out for individual tells rather than associative tells atm.

More concentration on the abductor, and I don't like that it's such an afterthought there.

There is no "pattern". Some players (me included) simply prefer not to lay all their cards on the table, or simply don't need to. That's just how I play.

---



Uhh, scratch this lol. It'd be better just to get replacements for these people. Pierre, if you can't handle this game ATM, please replace out so we don't have a (likely town) modkill on our hands. Dastrn, could you tell us when you'll be able to fully commit to this game? If it's gonna be a week+, you should probably consider replacing out, since your activity/contributions toDay hasn't been stellar.

Will get working on that reread/case soon. Not sure who the play is anymore.

lol shouldn't put votes/unvotes in the middle of paragraphs

Unvote

Denying action analysis patterns, hmmm.

Especially since he knows that works, since that's what tied him to TDA and got them both killed in MXC (everyone left here was in that game so you should know).

soooooooooo

I have town reads on everyone except OS adum and Pierre.

sooooooooooooooooooo

get back on dat wagon ftw?

Vote: OS

Wagon jumping on a case with absolutely no substance.

What, by pattern, you mean not being transparent/obvious in every post I make? I already explained my intents/reasons behind each action Vocal quoted, even though it was completely unnecessary for me to do so.

What other pattern"s" (plural) are you talking about?

Why aren't you pressuring inactives? (Note: Wanting the player who is close to being modkilled and possibly giving town an extra lynch is not pressuring inactives)

Swiss, you gonna wagon OS with me? :<

get back in this dastrnnnn

More denial of pattern analysis being useful.

Furthering support for a case with no substance.

Swiss, you don't want OS? D: Alright, but I'll rage if he isn't town lol. My first scum read is usually wrong, anyway.

adum lynch is alright. He's also been buddying you mad hardcore (don't know if you noticed that >.>). Consider my vote on him because I forget what L- he's at and don't want him self hammerin'.

also because pierre the abductor modkill into adum the mafia godfather lynch would be pretty awesome :<

Another wagon jump, again no real substance to the case.

No real reasoning to the role assignment either, the only thing it screams is somebody trying to hard to say "no, I'm not the abductor" especially cause there was no reason to believe a godfather was in this game.


Swiss semi-buddying noted.

Wagon hopping isn't scummy in itself. If you're trying to indiscriminately kill every player in the game, then yeah, you clearly need to be lynched, but I don't feel like Swiss (or I) have done that.

@adum, I've been on a grand total of 3 wagons at this point: Roxy (which I started), OS, and you, and I've only switched to you because it's pretty clear my read on OS is not enough to sway the rest of town into voting him. You're over exaggerating my actions and tunneling me, and you still haven't explained what "patterns" of mine are scummy (the points made by Vocal are not legitimate; they reveal a player who does not look into the meanings and intents of posts when analyzing them, rather than a player who does not have backing to his actions).

And uhhh, if you think I'm scummy for joining wagons, why do you think Swiss is town for damm near those same reasons?

Think I need to do another reread (omg so many rereads) to make sure I/we're on the right track.

I'm still all for the Pierre modkill, but I don't actually know if Pierre will get enough prods by the deadline. D:

@mod, How many prods does Pierre currently have, and when will his next prod be?

Very defensive about his wagon-hopping.

wait wait wait

@mod, if Pierre is modkilled at 2:59PM tomorrow and he is not town-aligned, when will the deadline for D2 be?

Why so sure that Pierre is scum? Again, strikes me as wanting to appear "not-scum" and taking it too far, and since he named him abductor, not-abductor specifically.

Uhhh

Not sure if I should claim since I don't know if I've been hammered or not. x_X

@mod, has a lynch occured?

I thought the deadline was tonight. X_X

Just responding to things as normal I guess.



I'll be the first to admit that. This game has been pretty hard; I've been having trouble finding actual scumtells and didn't know what to do. I went town-hunting instead and am pretty happy with everyone except for you, OS and Pierre, and I used that as my scum list. I was actually a bit more set on you as scum when I voted OS, mostly by your weird buddying with Swiss, but I also thought it possible you two were masoned...until he called for your lynch lol.



I'm not sure how the OS wagon was particularly "safe" lol. Joining a wagon based on gut reads alone? People will raise eyebrows at that, but I felt that my scum read was strong enough (enforced by the fact that Swiss had the same read) that it was worth risking to see how far it would go. Didn't think we would lynch him, but getting him to (basically) 4 votes was pretty awesome.

Joining your wagon after putting you on my scumlist isn't jumping on easy wagons, it's being consistent.



Do you see any possible connections between Swiss and OS? Note in particular Swiss' last few posts, as well as their general interactions together toDay.

What do you think of adum? In particular, is his play different from how it normally is?

Do you think my read of DanGR as town is accurate? Why do you think no one else has really commented on it?

Also, who's scum? (omg 1uping you adum)



Still think he's scummy, mostly for buddying Swiss, and he seems to be trying to blend in. That'd probably be a "leaning scum null" read in most game, but in this one... :/



Well, as adum started, I can only assume scum started mine, but the pile-on of votes at the end for "omg lynch before deadline" reasons make it hard to tell if scum continued it. No idea if scum started adum's wagon (all I know is town continued it ).



I was originally getting a town read on him...but now I'm not so sure. I really, really dislike how he's interacted with you (OS) toDay and will probably look into it while I wait to (probably) die.



He's alright, leaning town. Coming out with his claim like that was really weird (in the "uh why would scum do this" way) and "essentially" claiming VT is also weird. Don't think you (possibly we?) should waste a lynch on him toMorrow, we should be looking for the abductor who is going to ****ing kill us very fast.

Though if he's abductor I will rage lol.

"cumulative"

The "buddying" accusation is very interesting, seems to be attempting to push townieness on swiss (swiss, town, wtf?) now.

I LIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIVVVVVVVVVVEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

oh man no kill what is this

I still think Dan is town, so unless there's only one mafiat in this game for some bizarre reason, or there's a SK/Abductor anti-town combo (which I've been considering), it's more likely there was a successful RB or doc protect. Mafia targeting Swiss is possible, and if that's what happened, know now that the abductor's abduction occurs before the mafia's, so we definitely can't be put in a situation where the mafia gets abducted before they can kill the abductor (if it comes down to us relying on the mafia lol).

Yo FF, will appreciate you answering the questions I (and adum) set out for you.

Will respond to the stuff adum said later and such, just got home.

Why so happy about the no lynch? Granted he survived, but a townie should have mixed feelings at best on this.

Especially considering that 3 person lylo would be most effective for taking out the abductor, and his no lynch meant 4 as of that point.

Also, note the swiss abduct.

I am goin' aggro on this game tomorrow. For now, what I promised (and have been putting off) for a while and a bit more.



Saying someone is town is inherently buddying, so yes, I am accusing you of buddying. However, if that were true, I'd have to be accused of buddying myself, which is why it's not ONLY the fact that you were buddying that makes it wrong; it's also that your reason for buddying was inherently weak. Joining a bunch of wagons is town? Really? I'm not saying it's inherently scummy, but it's definitely not something I'd be patting the guy on the back for. And as for your stipulation that Swiss joined those wagons based on legit reads: why couldn't scum falsify those reads? And why do you think my read on OS was false but Swiss' wasn't?



I plan on doing a meta-read on you tomorrow when it's not night, so yeah, hopefully I can get a better read on you.



uhhhh not sure what you mean by this so I'll just say what I mean by town-hunting:

Town-hunting is looking for things that make me think a person is more likely town than scum and who I'm willing to ignore for now, and then using the leftover nulls as scum-reads. Used when I can't find scum, i.e. in this game, and is also known as process of elimination, i.e. what you keep preaching will win this game (and I agree).



Uh, I could be wrong about this, but I'm pretty sure almost no one had you on a scumlist when I put you on mine. I said "k, think Pierre/OS/adum are not town, ok with lynching", then Swiss went after you, and then the wagon started. Not sure if that's what you meant.

Anyways, thus far toDay I've been getting townie vibes from you and I don't think you're abductor, so I don't think you're a play.



You see at the bottom of 567, I said that I was rereading? Did the unvote then immediate vote back not tip you off to something?



As I said, by process of elimination and using things I thought were town to clear people, I came to the conclusion that you 3 were scum. I'll have to do another reread to see if that holds true (I'd say right now it probably doesn't), but I felt pretty good about where I was yesterDay.



If it's voting OS, get in line.

If it's being sad about DanGR, well yeah, I'm sad, he was my strongest town read. :<

And if you think I'm feigning not knowing about how good the BSL kill was, I've only been in 4 games (other than this and Halo), 3 of which I've been town and 1 in which I was scum and only made it to one Night Phase. Sue me if I don't understand why scum would kill certain people. :>



Here: http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=11344403&postcount=329



This is pretty much all flavour, but uh...an abductor could easily have this role. In MM, Guru Guru gave you a mask that would make other pets and animals around you follow you, and you could lead them around wherever you want.

Like, abduct them.

also that guys is creepy

At this point, I think either Vocal or FF is the play, as I can see either of them being abductor. Not sure which one to vote; will have a better grasp on this when I reread and stuff tomorrow.

Saying a townread is buddying somebody... hmmm this gives a wide berth to pick targets for buddying. And why hasn't he called out a number of people for buddying vocal before?


Also, somebody else starts pressure and who jumps on immediately? Sir bed! More scummy wagon jumping. Except for day 1, the only major wagon he hasn't been on is his own.

I'd agree with Vocal being at mine, but I haven't really though ill of Vocal until recently. We've disagreed on points (mostly about him thinking I'm scum lol), yes, but aside from my noobtown read, I never really had that strong of an opinion on him until FF made that case on him. So, the only reason I wasn't voting him toDay from before (as I explained at the bottom of my last post) is I wasn't sure who to go for between FF and Vocal, but I'm leaning Vocal now. Except I'm also not voting him now, because I'm pretty sure he's at L-1 and ending the Day when I want to do a bit of rereading seems bad lol.

do not understand why you asked this question



Well, it'd make sense if you're not a music-playing VT, but an abductor that plays music as a way of telling other people that something is going on with that person. Seems more sensible than a VT that clears himself upon one visit.

Also making other targeting roles claim just to prove that you have this silly ability is extremely lol.



I'm looking through my old posts and I SWEAR I made a point of posting this suspicion I had. : ( This doesn't actually change much right now, though, since we're still hunting for indies.

Uh

Can anyone link the most recent game that adum was scum in that isn't Bad Idea Redux? Meta is kind of bad when all a person talks about is mechanics as adum did in Redux, and he did the same in MXC, so AHHHHH.

rereadin to confirm that we got this

Admits to wagon jumping, subtely prepares for another case.

AHHHHHH WHY AM I LEFT WITH YOU 3

also wtf @ jailer being cumulative LOL

abductor mylo tiem

We can't mislynch toDay. We can no-lynch, have the abductor abduct another one of us, and pray that there is no SK/the mafia aren't stupid enough to kill someone. I kind of like that idea, because even if there is an SK, there's only a 1/3 chance we lose (either he kills abductor, kills the person being abducted, or does something else and we lose lol).

Still think OS is mafia, but I can't do anything about that. We'll have to kill him after we get the abductor.

FF is most likely the abductor at this point, but not by much. Need to reread.

I have no idea about adum anymore.

why is there a music box role ;-;

Why so hot on the no lynch?


Spreads himself wide so he can potentially lynch anybody.

OS being the most protown and not being abducted OR killed makes sense if he already survived a kill from mafia (like NA suggests) and bedevere doesn't think he seems very protown and therefore thinks can push a lynch on him.

It's possible there's an SK and no mafia, but I think it's more likely that there's mafia and no SK. Makes me comfortable with no lynching though since that should be all the possibilities, and no-lynching (almost) accounts for all of that.

The SK would attempt to kill the abductor because he would HAVE to try and kill the abductor, since I'm assuming the SK would have to kill every Night, like a standard SK.

The mafia wouldn't because more than likely there's only one mafia left, and if we no-lynch, they too have a 1/3 chance to hit the abductor. However, if I were in the mafia's shoes, I definitely wouldn't be attempting to kill the abductor when you have the possibility of losing the whole game all at once; no logic in that. Just see who the abductor abducts and go from there.

No-lynching also means any remaining PRs will be able to use their abilities and can give what results they found toMorrow, whereas lynching and weighing everything on this one lynch/kill from the mafia is risky, especially when mislynching the mafia/the mafia getting abducted just kills us.

Here are the ways we lose (assuming no blocking roles):

Lynch toDay:
-we lynch the last mafia
-we don't lynch the abductor, mafia fails to kill abductor

No-Lynch toDay:
-mafia/SK kill not the abductor nor the person they target, though mafia doesn't have to kill
-we don't lynch the abductor toMorrow (we lose no matter what, assuming abductor has priority over kills)

Unless I'm leaving something out, No-Lynch is better than Lynch IMO.

lol wtf swiss

hmmmmm

Actually, I think it's better if the mafia DOES do a NK assuming we no-lynch.

Assuming there is 1 abductor, 1 mafia, and 2 town right now, and we no lynch and the abductor abducts 1 town and the mafia no kills, we have a 1/3 shot of killing the abductor. We miss, we lose, assuming abductor has priority. We can't get any better or worse than 1/3 like this.

Assuming there is 1 abductor, 1 mafia, and 2 town right now, and we no lynch and the abductor abducts 1 town and the mafia DOES kill, we have a 2/3 chance of not losing, by either them killing the abductor or killing the person the abductor abducted. If they got him, great, we get some people back and can play a standard mafia game. If they hit the guy being abducted, OK, we either lose a townie forever (not great) or get another person in abduction (fine) depending on priorities, and we end up in the same place we would have if mafia No killed. If they hit neither, well, we're probably dead without some PRs interfering, but we/mafia took the same 1/3 chance that Night that we would have taken toMorrow anyway, so the only big difference is they did it based on their own decisions instead of the town's collective (but we're gonna use this Day to abductor hunt anyway, so apart from PR results, they don't learn much new).

Didn't do the math, but I'm pretty sure no-lynching+mafia killing has better odds statistically for us not losing to abductor. Only thing against it are PR results (I can't actually think of any that would help that we haven't already lost, aside from a cop that uses "town" and "not-town" and not "mafia" and "not-mafia") and maybe scum having less info than town, but I think I'd rather trust the scum's judgment and potential info at this point LOL.

@OS, I already explained (in my post here and before >____>), but an SK only has a 1/3 shot of making us lose. He either kills abductor (yay, town back in it) or kills/attempts to kill the person being abducted, which still leaves us with 3 (yay, town still in it barely). Him killing neither is a risk, but it's the same risk we take by lynching toMorrow, and we have worse odds of hitting abductor toDay than toMorrow.

Convinced no lynch is the right play toDay, not completely sold on letting mafia kill. What does everyone else think?

Again, why pushing for a no lynch so hard? He seems pretty obviously scum at this point, but mafia would want the NK. BP abductor or abductor that outprioritizes mafia seems likely. Or potentially just hoping mafia will mess up, one of the two.

maybe adum understands the logic in my plan? :>



lol silly wording

more like, tell mafia that killing is beneficial to their faction.

be great if you did something other than question non-existent holes in my plans/suggestions BTW



Right. Just for today.

We lynch tomorrow assuming mafia don't mess up this Night.

Just like we would lynch toDay with the assumption that mafia don't mess up this Night.

We get an extra 1/3 shot of hitting the abductor, with an additional 1/3 shot of messing up (and a 1/3 shot of nothing happening). Seems better than 1/4.



Well, unless someone here has info/a role that they're willing to claim that will help us for sure survive against the abductor, yeah, I am. Mafia might have some sort of awkward role that helps find the abductor that they don't want to claim for some reason (can't think of any ATM, though >.>). We lay out who we think is the abductor here, we hope mafia uses their best judgment, and if they didn't hit the 1/3 explosion of death, we get another shot toMorrow.

I'm also pretty confident that scum won't hit the unabducted person. :>

Someone's skimming. We've already talked about (well, mentioned ) the possibility of an SK+abductor indy combo. I think it's possible, especially with the weird number for the setup, but mafia is still more likely IMO.



First, I think it's highly unlikely that the abductor is BP, so I'm not anywhere near whatever messed up sinking ship of a mafia game you think we're in. Assuming lynches, kills and abducts every Night, we only have 3 shots to get the abductor, and considering we weren't even aware of him for a day, I don't think that's likely at all.

Second, that doesn't increase our chances to lose, though it does mean that the killing faction has no reason to kill (so if you think the abductor is BP, mafia, don't shoot). All it means is shooting the abductor will be the same as No killing and we'll be on to the next day with one person less to consider. The additional chance at killing the abductor is still worth the risk IMO.



No thought to OS? You buddies? Or scumbuddies?

You guys wanna claim scum together so we can lynch adum? :D



Sooo, if I'm reading you right, your master plan is to lynch today, and assuming we mess up (1/4 chance to get it right; probably will), put our lives in the hands of scum (omg ahhh so scary, much scarier than the abductor directing our lynch toDay), of which the abductor has a 1/2 chance of correctly abducting and likely outprioritizing, if we hadn't already lynched the mafia toDay in the first place (1/4 chance ho boy)?

Way better amirite?

More no-lynch stuff, but also says he's cool with a lynch happening and suggests just about everyone is a viable lynch target. Hmmm.

Again, mafia really wants to kill the abductor, if abductor is BP or has priority abductor wants to kill anybody.

If by "baseless" you mean "no actual facts", then yeah, I can't argue against that: I'm making assumptions with no real facts to back it up.

But why are you, then, voting me, when you have no factual base for it? You an indycop or something? How can I believe you unless you post your role PM? Where's the proof?

oh wait this is mafia

where you have to make educated guesses based on intentions, history, interactions, and what i'm using now, meta

hurr durr



Also barring BS game design (abductor has an additional one-shot kill omg), we can pretty much guarantee that we'll have a 1/3 chance of lynching the abductor toMorrow, assuming mafia decide not to NK (and if they think he's BP and don't want to take the risk, they can do so). Unless you think there's an SK?



Why SHOULD the abductor be BP?

This game is small. Smaller than average. Have you seen any BP indys in a game this small? Serious question, I don't remember seeing any in small games and IMO it seems broken balancewise without giving scum/mafia some serious boosts, and I haven't seen anything that suggests those boosts are present (although I guess that isn't saying much).

I think a BP SK in a game this size is unlikely too. It just ends the game too fast for town (and scum) to catch up. This game might have been over now if we lynched D2 and the mafia killed N2.



Yeah, we don't know a lot of things. Like if I'm actually the abductor. Or if Vocal's role really is as useless as it seems.

That's why we make educated guesses about these kinds of things.

mafia hurr durr

Also like to point out that we don't know if we have a 1/4 chance toDay either. Someone voteblocked amirite? Granted, that's unlikely, but that's just about as unlikely as a BP abductor IMO.

Alright, so you're really against having the mafia NK because if the abductor is BP, it's a useless and potentially deadly shot; I can understand that, you want to play it safe. But why are you against no lynch? I really see little to no risk in giving mafia the wheel for a little bit, when it's both ours AND their hides that are on the line. They're going to make a decision that best gives them the opportunity to win against the abductor, not the one that completely ****s everything up for us. So, if you can sufficiently prove that shooting toNight (assuming no lynch) is the absolute worst thing mafia could do, and convince them of that, then no lynching toDay should not be a risk for you at all, and we get to decrease our pool of possible lynch candidates toMorrow (and thus, get a better shot at getting the abductor).



hurr durr called a joke

And yeah, let's just assume there's no SK and make decisions with that completely out of the equation. Seems logical IMO.

oh wait that's what I'm doing with the BP abductor thing

except i'm making an educated guess that BPness is unlikely while an SK is much less so

woop

---

Think I know what adum's going for.

Will reread once he gives his opinions and such out (or sooner if he takes a a while).

Actually, I wonder why FF is so sure too, but I'll work on that in his iso.


Also sir bedevere, you are completely WRONG in terms of game design, 1-2-9 is EXTREMELY pro-town by it's nature because of the cross-kills potential. 1-1-10 even more so, 2-10 has to be almost mountainous (town has no PRs) to be balanced, but most 12 person games are 3-9 which is extremely pro-scum. I don't wanna get too far into this, so if you wanna know more about why, in the thread/poll on large and small games I did a nice post detailing this, and linked to a thread on mafiascum that details this significantly better then I can.


Assuming Hilt made this reasonably balanced or at least tried to, we can expect some significant boosts for scum.

Dang OS, be nice if you said something useful for once.

Lynch or no lynch?

hurr durr

---

Well, I don't see any reason to hold this back, so might as well say this now:

We have a pretty good chance of finding people who aren't the abductor or mafia by looking at any breadcrumbing that Nabe/Dastrn did, or simply guess who they would have jailed based on their stances and such (although that's much less reliable). With 4 people alive, finding even one person who was jailed on the Night there was an abducton will be crucial. I think that's what adum's looking for too.

The only problem I see is Dastrn was pretty inactive and noncontributing and might not have thought to crumb that, but Nabe seemed like a good player and I could see him crumbing, and so long as he jailed not-X1 (which is possible), we might have a clear.

I'm pretty strapped down right now, but I think I can find some time later today to do a reread and look for those crumbs.

^Mostly throwing this out there so people can do it themselves if they have the time, or so they can point out that there's a flaw or something and prevent me/us from wasting time.

Wondering why he hasn't done this...


Seems fake contribution while trying to appear pro-town and still leaving as many lynch choices open as possible.

Conclusion: Sir Bedevere is almost definably scum and leans very strongly on the abductor end. His actions are extremely scummy, especially the wagon jumping and his jumping on just about everyone's wagons and attempting to leave as many lynches as possible open.


Abductor stems from his early concentration on finding the abductor and his being so sure that certain people are the abductor which screams trying to hard to make sure there's no suspicion that he's the abductor, in addittion to the fact that most abductions have been his strongest townreads at any given time, giving him maneuverability in pushing for mislynches, and none of them have been his scumtargets. Furthermore him pushing a no-lynch screams that he's an abductor that's either BP or has priority (BP more likely, possibly 1 shot) and he's hoping that mafia mis-kills saving himself the trouble of forcing a mislynch. This makes even more sense giving the inherently pro-town nature of the numbers that would need some significant counter-balancing. A possible third explanation is that he wants to see if there are any mafia left.


I don't see a reasonable pro-town explanation for any of those actions, especially given that BP is ALWAYS a possibility and depending on a mafia faction to follow town is just dumb, and given my experience masoned with him, I doubt he'd make that kind of error (inexperience with setup theory is possible though, since this knowledge is relatively uncommon).




Now, onto FF/Pierre, I wanna see if he matches up with this on closer inspection and hopefully I can get some candidates for scumbuddy along the way, hope I get this done before I gotta leave.

 

[Overswarm]

If I recall correctly, Pierre was the first to mention an abductor role. I'm unsure how experience Pierre is though; it wouldn't mean much if he'd seen the role prior to this one.

Also, I was not notified of being jailed.

 

[adumbrodeus]

If I recall correctly, Pierre was the first to mention an abductor role. I'm unsure how experience Pierre is though; it wouldn't mean much if he'd seen the role prior to this one.

Also, I was not notified of being jailed.

Yeah, this post http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=11383842&postcount=410.


It's definitely gonna be in the Pierre/FF ISO.

 

[adumbrodeus]

Also, is people being notified when they are jailed standard procedure?

 

[adumbrodeus]

Pierre/FF ISO:

Spoiler

I would choose Overswarm and Swiss as my scummates. They are both strong players and the consensus seems like they are hard to read. I do not have any scum picks so far. The only thing that I thought was of note or possibly good to mull over as discussion was this:



I didn't really know what to think when I read this. I thought it was strange, because I sort of assumed that this was the norm already. You pressure inactives that you think you can pressure back into the game, and if you think they are sincerely inactive, you ask for them to be replaced.

@OS: Are you normally opposed to replacements, or do you normally favor mod-kills or lynches instead?



Why is that, and what do you and dont you consider buddying?

Would he put an actual scumbuddy here? I wonder. Doesn't tell me if he's mafia or abductor, but noted for potential connections.

Actually, I would also like to turn both questions back to you, X1-12, now that all three of us have answered.

Parroting.

My power just went out when I was almost finished. This draft is much shorter.

It was by accident.

Your attitude on replacements is what I expected.

My buddying question was towards X1-12.

Roleclaiming should be done when you are L-1 for the purpose of saving your own skin and re-directing the lynch, should be done when you have caught some scum (preferably more than 1, and if you can wait until you have caught more than one, do so, unless a mafia roleblocker has flipped and no protective roles have flipped, or if you think there is just one more mafia remaining and you have caught him, or if you fear you cannot push your target's lynch without dying the next night even if you didnt claim), and there are situations where mass roleclaiming is important, because it forces scum to lie, but it shouldn't be done early, it should be done after actions have been made and there is a large enough paper trail to compare against claimed night actions.

Early mention of roleblocker noted, pretty standard role but wanna see if there are any more indications of it.

unvote vote: J



Dastrn, what do you think about Lynch all Liars? Is it a good policy?



I look forward to X1-12's answer to this question, and then Roxy's.

Mafia theory discussion which doesn't assist town in actually catching scum, so essentially a distraction.

I think Vocal asked a wonderful question in #134. He challenges two players he obviously has no read on to give their strongest scum-read. He then gives his strongest scum-read.

In #140, X1-12 takes a direct step backwards from the progress Vocal attempts to make in #134 by asking people to hop on a random wagon of his choice, to "get people talking." The random wagon of choice? Vocal. The one player that just immediately preceding tried to get people talking in a better way. Start a new wagon, on Vocal? What is wrong with wagoning Roxy, following Vocal?

unvote vote: X1-12

X1-12, what is your opinion of Vocal? And, also, what do you think of Roxy?

I look forward to J and adumb's answers to Vocal's questions.

Its about time for Swiss to pop back in.

Its already hard to get Dastrn talking and now he is leaving. This sort of answers OS's question.

I would rather have JoanBud replaced with Sir Bevedere than modkilled. But can the replacement happen now?

X1 vote feels odd. Potential vocal buddying here.

"So far, so good." Vocal is a new player, but he is doing exceptionally well in my opinion. He is contributing to and furthering discussion, he is putting his own views on paper, and he is active. If he is town, he is doing us 3 good things out of 3; if he is scum, all three will bite him in the ass later.



I don't see why you would stunt the growth of the Roxy wagon that Vocal made by voting Vocal if you think Vocal is most likely town but Roxy worries you. Perhaps you were just being short-sighted in your attempt to crack a newbie; perhaps there is a connection between you (X1-12) and Roxy.



So you do not have meaningful tells on OS, Adumbrodeus, Dastrn, or J. Is there someone you currently do have a scum read on?



I'll go ahead and let you know that I have a severely hard time discerning sarcasm in Mafia games. On the internet in general, but especially when I am trying to determine motivations.

This seemed pretty defensive of you, OS. You can acknowledge that your post had a vote for a player in it, and a statement that you were not sure you would be on that lynch in finality. Vocal recognized this and thought it was scummy. Instead of simply dismissing it, you went for his throat, OMGUS'ed him (sarcastically or not), dismissed his valid suspicions as WIFOM, and chastised him for bringing to the table the only thing he can - circumstantial, situational scenarios. We don't have a flip. We work with what we have. Why so mad?

Why so much vocal love?

The x1 roxy connection feels odd, potential distancing between x1 and pierre?

Only post that he addressed dangr prior to the abduction... interesting.

Did anyone else notice that the title says "Dqwn" instead of "Dawn?"

I apologize for my inactivity Day 1, though it is bittersweetly comforting that I was not the only one who fell inactive?

I'm interested to hear Dastrn's magnificent Day 2 super-plan. He had one, right?

@Swiss: I don't think I'm being played by OS. At least, I haven't blindly put my trust in him, so how am I being played? Community Mafia may be the one game on this site I haven't read. What happened with you there that has OS laughing at you?

Does anyone want to admit that they visited DanGR last night? Anyone?

For now, I am planting my vote on X1.

vote: X1-12

When I saw that DanGR went missing, I immediately thought of the role the Abductor. Most often used as an independent role. This game is kind of small for an independent, so maybe it is some skewed version.

Planting his vote on x1 without any real explanation that day, smells of either distancing or potentially a bus.

Also the first mention of the abductor role, noted for future reference.


Also, this is the fir

Do you think the same applies for the abductor?

I'm not sure where I want to go. Not Swiss or Vocal. I feel weird about OS's wagon, and I think Sir Bev is just going to come back and say "I just joined it for pressure" and his will die down too.

@OS: It seems to me that every time you are attacked, you respond with "come back when you have evidence." Would you say that is accurate?



What's behind these two questions?

@Dastrn: Didn't you have some master plan today? I already mentioned it today, did you skim that?

Pushing towards the abductor, could be forced to push from mafia, or an attempt to allay suspicion that he's the abductor, or a legit question.

It doesn't seem overreaching on it's one though.



Interesting to note a lack of contribution in spite of not having a V/LA of any sort.


And now for FF:

Alright folks, FF is now officially in this game.

I'll start with the direct questions:



Reads:

1. X1-12: Nullest read. Been spending a lot of time trying to figure him out. http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=11451782&postcount=622 caught my eye and I'm wondering exactly what he meant here. What exactly were you trying to assert X-1? I agree that the abductor should be our primary target for reasons I will soon detail, but I want to know exactly what you were trying to say here.

2. -Vocal- : Impulsive, emotional, and somewhat childish I would say. He's been saying ridiculously impulsive things, asking strange or downright bad questions, and missing very obvious suggestions from players all game. It's like he has this innocence that makes him seem like a lost child, but not a very intelligent one. Right now I have him in the dumb town category since I have trouble beleiving his potential scum mates would just give him free reign like this but I haven't discounted the possibility. Def. do not want him in lylo though.

3. Adumbrodeus - Neutralish, leaning scum. He's carried this really passive aggressive, "omg everything people have attacked me with is so stupid" attitude for most of the game. He hasn't been aggro on the offensive, but when people have attacked him he comes off as slightly frustrated which disrupts the kind of cool confidence and more passive offense that he normally carries. It really isn't too unusual for adum to be so dismissive of others' opinions and attacks and brush them away as "dumb" in that sort of manner, but he also tends to be more aggro offensively for the same reason. Not only will he call people out for how "dumb" or bad their attacks are when they attack him, but he tends to base a lot of his offensive stances with these types of criticisms, and I don't see this congruence in this game. It just seems off.

4. Overswarm - Town. He's been way to straight forward and distant to be scum. Perhaps indy but not really sold on that. His dealings with Vocal and Swiss have thoroughly convinced me he isn't scum. He treated Vocal like an annoying, clingy child. When Vocal didn't even understand OS's underhanded jabs at him and OS just pretty much facepalmed and laid it all out for him, that didn't seem like scum OS at all. I see scum OS toying with Vocal more, trying to trap him, not just being like "omg this kid is so dumb I can't believe it" and just pushing himself away from him just because he didn't want to deal with him. His attitude wasn't manipulative at all, it was just more like "wow this kid is so weird I don't even wanna deal with him". As for his dealing with Swiss, I definitely cannot see them being scum partners, that's for sure. The exchange reminds me of how I treated Tom is mafia barhouse with me being like Swiss and OS like Tom. I was paranoid as **** and was constantly gnawing at Tom's ankles for really no good reason. Tom was really nonchalant about it and was pretty much just like "dude, get off my *** its annoying and you have no good reason to be doing it and you know it." OS is carrying a similar type of attitude, which again, is significantly unmanipulative. He pretty much calls out Swiss for being paranoid and tells him to chill out, instead of taking the attack and turning it into a potential scumtell, or at least initiating discussion about it's [potential of being one. These are chances to undermine credibility that I don't see scum OS passing up at all.

5. Sir Bedevere: Scummy. Big time. Haven't really put posts together to make a comprehensive case yet, but it's all sorts of little things that just add up, from contradictions to weird exclamations to just the general tone of his posts. Like this pair of posts for example especially caught my interest:

http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=11425071&postcount=567
http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=11425519&postcount=568

Literally back to back, Bedivere poses two contradictory stances on my playerslot. In 567, he says Pierre would likely flip town if he was modkilled. Then in the very next post, he says he has Pierre as a scumread with OS and adum. Wat?

Beyond that, I have a hard time believing the scumlist in 568 is genuine, and not just a list of people him and his potential buddies are cool with lynching. I'd be interested in hearing exactly how he reached the conclusion that my playerslot, OS, and adum were a likely scum team, because I have a really hard time seeing the line of thought that brings one to that conclusion.

And then this post made my head spin too, all sorts of bad: http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=11384737&postcount=415

6. FrozenFlame: 10/10 Town, would buddy again. =D

7. Dastrn: Not especially active so not really much to go on. Especially don't like his unwarranted defensiveness when it comes to explaining his inactivity. You have a life an a family or whatever. we get it. The fact that he feels the need to go ahead and explain how much more important his real life is than this game, and how he feels the need to like super-justify in a "I don't care what you guys think, I have my priorities" type of a attitude just rubs me the wrong way. Seems like the kind of attitude a frustrated anti-town player might have as a projection of their own frustration with themselves, and their inability to be active to the point where they stop drawing all sorts of attention and criticism as a result of it. So yeah, sorta leaning scummy here but really muddled read.

Overswarm Wagon & Swiss:

Like I said when I discussed my read on OS, I really feel like Swiss was just a misguided townie who was just paranoid as **** about OS and didn't like how non-nonchalant of an attitude he [OS] was carrying. I personally find Swiss really hard to read because his attitude is just so naturally scummy I can never tell when he's being genuine or just ****ing with people. With that said, I don't feel like his attack on OS was one he would make as scum. He didn't really put in any effort at all to undermine OS's credibility, nor did he really do much to make himself look more credible. He was attacking based on gut, but didn't exactly have the gall to say it. He definitely believed in his attack though, that much I can tell. OS calls him out for the gut attack and Swiss kind of reluctantly accepts it (since he didn't really do much to hide it, he just didn't want to admit it from the get go) but still sticks with the read. Reminds me a lot of myself in Barhouse as I mentioned and just screams paranoid townie.

The wagon itself I need to do some more reading to flesh out. With it being started my a paranoid read and impulsive action, I think it would be an easy wagon for anti-towns to take advantage of, especially with a pretty townie looking OS on the chopping block that I'm sure any anti-town players would be eager as hell to get rid of if they could do it cleanly and easily. I'll no doubt get back to you with better analysis once I figure out what the situation is there for myself.

Swiss/OS I've covered already, as well as adum and my scum reads in my general reads section.

As for this DanGR deal, can you link me to exactly where you established your read on DanGR? I'll need to know what post you are referring to if you want me to tell you why I think it was ignored since post made in proximity to it are very important in that regard.

That pretty much covers where I'm at so far.

Regarding the abductor in general, he should be our primary target. Not only is he bad for us townies because he's essentially another kill every night, but he also potentially provides any scum he abducts free passes to late game, assuming we get him before he meets his wincon. The earlier we get the abductor, we obviously have the benefit of having an anti-town role out of the game, and one less "NK" to deal with, but we also prevent him from giving scum potential free passes to the later stages of the game without ever having to contribute, and thus, give town connections to work with. Abductors are a seriously bad deal. Figuring out who's our problem child here pronto should be a top priority.

First post of substance.


Interesting to note that in spite of the length it brings very little to the game, since most of it seems parroted.

Also the x1 null read is a substantial change for the slot, interesting.


He also makes a strong point of swiss being hard to read.

Meta is only part of my read on Adum, just like its only part of my read on you. Where di you get this distinction that my read on you is all game play analysis but my read on adum is all meta? That makes no sense.

I directly commented on what I perceive to be both of your attitudes this game, and I then went on to explain what I find off about it, or what I found to be reassuring/normal about it. I talked about how your non-manipulative and distant playstyle this game seems distinctly un-scummy, and how adum's passive aggressiveness, in combination with his lack of congruence between is offense and defense, comes off as scummy. Both of those conclusions are related to both how I think scum tend to play, AND how I think you two would specifically play as scum.

Anyway, you wanted posts relating to my read on adum so here:

http://www.smashboards.com/showthread.php?p=11443268#post11443268
http://www.smashboards.com/showthread.php?p=11397989#post11397989
http://www.smashboards.com/showthread.php?p=11351045#post11351045

These three posts (they're in order from most recent to earliest) all best characterize the "lol you guys are so stupid/yur dumb for attacking me" passive aggresive attitude that I don't like in adum. It's not specific to adum that I don't like this attitude, I think it's generally a scummy attitude and have seen scum players carry it (KevinM being a notable example). The more adum specifc meta read comes from the lack of congruence, something that I would expect town adum wouldn't have.

As for my town read on you, you're right, I really don't have any good frame reference. I think you're over exaggerating how confident my town read on you is. I said you were Town, and I'm pretty confident you are, but I didn't say you were definitely town. Did you miss the part where I said I have a nagging suspicion that you could be indy?

Regardless, I'm not so sure where you get off saying I'm defending you. I didn't defend you at all, I just simply stated my read on you up to this point. Saying you have a town read on someone doesn't constitute a defense. Specifically addressing points brought up in an attack on them in order to dissuade a wagon is defending.

Point is, right now I think you're town and wouldn't mind having you in lylo, but that's the extent of it. You're not a clear in my book or anything close to that, just my best town read thus far.

You missed my vote because I didn't place one and I don't plan to until I hear some more responses to my post + people (i.e. X1) answering the questions I've posed.

Sir Bed is the most scummy IMO, but I don't know if he's more abductor scummy than scum scummy, and since the abductor is top priority, I'm hesitant to start focusing on that wagon without other considerations.

I hunt for indies different based on what type of indy I'm inclined to believe we're dealing with, since they have such various powers and objectives. I basically imagine how I would expect someone with the powers and objectives of the given indy to act (often using myself as a reference point) and dig through their posts to see if they give off those vibes.

Why are you waiting to reveal who your other suspicion for abductor is? You waiting for me to have a top pick first?

Case with no real substance, attitudes over actions.

So after doing some more re-reading, I'm beginning to think Vocal is our abductor, mostly because him, Bed, and Adum still remain the scummiest in the game but Adum and Bed come off as more straight up scum scummy, not abductor scummy.

Vocal's overly exciting and clingy nature is distinctly disarming, and that's a really good vibe for an abductor to put off in order to avoid attacks.

Still going through Vocal but yeah, top pick for abductor.

So uh yeah, are other people ready to contribute now?

Vote: Vocal

"Playing" doesn't imply intent at all. When I say playing I just mean the way you are posting in this game. I'm not making any implication as to whether or not you are consciously trying to mold your playstyle into a distinct persona or if you are just posting naturally.

That's my point, I think your style of posting is just your natural way of handling having the abductor role.

How have you been clingy? Let's take a look:

http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=11292397&postcount=88
http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=11297068&postcount=101

These little trivial but buddy-esque type posts are what I'm talking about. Especially early on, and ESPECIALLY when it comes to dealing with OS, as further showcased here:

http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=11313960&postcount=173
http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=11314132&postcount=176

You're carrying this passive, needy attitude that is just distinctly disarming, as I've been saying. I don't know whether it's an act, or you are just doing it naturally but my point is that it heavily suggests to me that you have a role that makes you want to avoid clash and therefore, negative attention.

I'm not trying to trick you at all. If I wanted to trick you I'd be asking loaded questions like "Why did you say these things X and Y specifically? Why did you respond in this why?" blah blah blah. I'm just outright stating what I think is scummy of what you've done so far in this game and why I think you're the abductor.

Hell, even you saying "omg I think you're trying to trick me I'm so scarred you're a big scummy meanie QQ" is the exact same needy, helpless, clingy attitude I'm talking about.

You can say I'm "manipulating" the facts all you want but it doesn't change the fact that I've done nothing of the sort. I've simply explained in a very straight forward manner the reasons for my conclusion of you being the likely abductor. Trying to make me out to be the bad guy doesn't do much in terms of your defense in any effective sense.

Why so eager to peg somebody as the abductor, and why so sure?

Also note that 4 minutes later, x1 jumps on.


Again, attitude over substance strikes me, why's does he seem so sure?

Maybe he knows something we don't?

/signed

Pretty sure I explained it in my read of you dude. I said that your defense style this game has been dismissive. You've been brushing off attacks as shallow, stupid, worthless, w/e, much as I'd pretty much expect you to do normally. The problem is though, I also expected that to carry over into your offensive stances, where you'd be using attacks of the same type (dismissive, not really 100% engaging of opponents but just assumedly over them). Instead I get this more cool confidence style on the offense of "yeah this guy is totally scum it's obvious" that carries a sense of confidence, not a sense of "oh this must be scum for being so ********". That's the lack on congruence. It's like you have two different perspectives on how to make your attacks look good and defend yourself cleanly.

What did EE say in Bioware was your "general meta". I'm seriously not sure what you're referring to here.

I definitely have substance in my assessment of you. You either just completely missed it or misunderstood what I was saying. Feel free to try again.

lol wtf? And you accuse me of having no substance? How the hell are most of my positions "safe"?

Moving on, has anyone else noticed that Vocal literally does nothing other than the following:

1.) Accuse attackers of having "no substance", "paper thin arguments", and generally just having poor logic, yet offers no formal rebuttal to substantiate such claims

2.) Tries to act like he's been so nice and understanding all game while everyone else is a "bad guy" (perfect example being his "this has gone on too long now for pleasantries" comment)

3.) Generally AtEs like a boss.

Like seriously you can summarize all of his recent posts with these three categories of statements.

Oh and the fact that he someone thinks that I'm pressuring him for no reason, as if I don't find him scummy at all when I explicitly stated that after re-reading I thought he was the most likely to be abductor. Lol derp.

It's like not even worth addressing his points anymore because he'll just say "lol that argument is so bad" and not explain why, or just say "omg you're trying to trick me/omg stop it you've been bullying me long enough" or some other stupid AtE.

Now maintaining 2 attacks based primarily on attitudes as opposed to substance, why so sure about vocal?

Ninja'd by Nabe:

Yes, you have.

My top two scum picks are Bed and Adum. Vocal is my top abductor read.

You can pretty much find where I stand on the whole cast on in my first big post of the game after replacing.

Noted.

Still very much ok with a Vocal lynch and Bedivere only continues to solidify my scum read on him.

Adum not really offering us anything this close to deadline doesn't help either but I'm not about to call the kettle black. Just something for future consideration.

Anyway, long story short Vocal, your role claim is unbelievably piss poor.

You've like flailed around with this incomplete claim with little to explanation about exactly how anyone can confirm you as town if they visit you at night. Like seriously how the hell do you expect anyone to believe you?

http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=11533167&postcount=709
http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=11542018&postcount=778

You also seem to like to use the word potentially a lot when referring to this clearing mechanism. Subconsciously preparing for what you actually know will happen, i.e. you won't be cleared at all? Wouldn't be surprised really, since you won't even full out claim your role name, nor have you explained to us at all how "hearing music" somehow translates into confirming you as town.

Of course, the whole Guru flavour seeming abductorish has to be taken with a grain of salt but it certainly doesn't help your claim either.

But seriously I don't get how you have gone this long wondering why no one is buying your pissant claim when you wont even explain the **** thing. It's really kind of sad.

http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=11539789&postcount=752

And then here is where you really seal the deal for my read on you. How is it exactly that you know that the mafia would allegedly "still be able to kill" even if the abductor takes one of them tonight? You say that the mafia would still be able to kill because you assumed that just stopping one mafiat wouldn't be enough to stop the kill, but how is it that you know that just one mafiat isn't the whole mafia left at this point? Isn't that only knowledge that only the mafia, and potentially abductor (if he can see the flips of who he takes) should know?

Couple that with the fact that it isn't unreasonable at all to think that the abductor could have some sort of anti-tracking power or some night flavour to help work in his favor, considering he's working alone when balancing the game. It's not uncommon to give solo indies little perks like that.

With all that said, you've done nothing to allay my suspicions of you, and as such you remain my top abductor pick.

@ Nabe:

http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=11540661&postcount=762

Not much really. I can see Bedivere or Adum being summates with Vocal, but I find it more likely that it's indyVocal and scumbedivere+scumbrodeus.

@ Bedivere:

http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=11541854&postcount=774

What "stuff" am I supposed to respond to? Your defense? You didn't ask me any questions, you just provided responses to my attacks on you, which I'm still considering. Did I miss something, or what is it exactly that you're waiting on me for?

@ OS:

Yes, right now I currently reside in Japan. I return to the states around Xmas.

Continues hammering at bedevere/vocal/myself scum, totally ignores x1. Posted no real substance about them beyond attitudes until now with vocal yet seems so sure. I'd expect an experienced scummer to have posted substance on those cases rather then a bunch of hogwash.

I seriously like don't even need to math out Sir Beds drivel to know that he's gotta be the abductor.

Principally, you want to take a method we absolutely know for sure of eliminating the abductor (i.e. lynching, unless Hilt pulled some crazy bull**** and made him unlynchable or some crap) right off the table.

And then you want to put the game in the hands of the scum and/or an SK (lolwut) that we've had no suggestion even exists?

This has got to be the worst plan I've ever heard.

Couple that with the fact that what happens if the abductor is bulletproof? This is a typical ability that solo indies have. Why isn't that in your considerations Bed? Carefully omitting it since, if you are indeed bulletproof, no lynching and trying to rely on NK's nets you a free win?

Weighing the odds of scum potentially nking the abductor vs. us lynching him has no merit when you don't even know for sure if he CAN be Nk'd. Such a bad assumption.

I really thought it would be harder deciding who between you and adumb was the play.

Vote: Sir Bed

Now he's absolutely positive bedevere is the abductor, there's a good reason in his posts but this is lylo, why throw down a vote so early in the day?

Bedevere, how can you seriously post something like that, where you try and argue numbers with me, when literally all of your stupid numbers are baseless because you make completely baseless assumptions about the nature of the abductor and the scum. Like your entire post is completely ludicrous.

I've already told you, the one thing we know for sure is that we have a 1/4 chance, right now, of lynching the abductor and eliminating him. Barring complete bull**** game design (i.e. unlynchable abductor), we know that for sure.

Your plan assumes the abductor is not BP which is a completely baseless assumption. Why the hell shouldn't an abductor be BP? He's just like any other normal SK except his targets get temporarily stored, not eliminated permanently. It's very common to give solo SK's some form of BPness. How is it exactly then, that an abductor being some form of BP is "so unlikely"? You seriously just claim that it's incredibly unlikely without offering any substantial reasoning that differentiates the abductor from another normal solo indy that would justify withholding that helpful and I'd argue necessary buff (in most cases, for faction balance purposes) to an abductor.

Bearing this in mind, your numbers go to ****. You claim that we're guaranteed a 1/3 chance to win tomorrow if we don't pick the 1 bad option tonight. What happens when the Abductor is BP and we're guaranteed to have the worst result? Sorry, but your bull**** 1/3 chance isn't real. We don't have it at all. We don't know what our real chances are if we leave this game to be resolved by the scum or whoever you are planning to be our saving grace.

I didn't skim at all, nice try at a low blow though. Just because someone mentioned off hand the possibility of an SK doesn't mean there is any in-game evidence to suggest there is one in the game. I could say right now "heys guys there might be a jester/warlock/lyncher" etc. in this game, but that doesn't change the fact that thus far, nothing suggests any of those roles exist in this setup.

****ing lol @ implying I'm trying to buddy OS. We're in LYLO numbskull. You honestly think I would move him from my top town read to a contestant for today's play when both you and adum, my top two scum picks from when I came into this game, are on the table? I don't think so.

Me narrowing my choices to you and Adum has nothing to do with getting some form of dubious buddy credit you're trying to make me out to be after and everything to do with sticking to my strongest reads and trying to ****ing win this game.

Interesting, he seems to be trying to maintain me as a viable lynch for later even though he's POSITIVE that abductor is bedevere. Again, I'm thinking that he knows more then we do. He strongly implies he's willing to lynch me toDay, even though it seems pretty clear I'm note.

Conclusion: FF is scummy overall and has some potential potential abductor slips, but in the overall body of evidence they don't seem strong enough to suggest that he's trying to build a "definitely not abductor" impression, and is instead trying to do two things:

1. Get town away from finding mafia.

2. Kill the abductor who is just as dangerous to mafia as town.


Secondly, why was i so strongly on the table last game day, but not on the table anymore? What changed? Why is he so sure it's sir bedevere not, and why go out of his way to push so hard for vocal when there wasn't really substance to the wagon? He definately takes a major risk with putting himself out there so far and drawing a lot of attention.


Scum knowledge mistake, there was an abduction every night and if scum has a roleblocker or some other role that can prevent abductions each night, it means that scum could narrow down their abduction choices. Consider that dastrn was also leaning scum in his initial catch-up post, but he ended up dead, after the events of yesterday, would town have lynched Nabe?


Considering that Pierre mentioned a roleblocker extremely early in the game before there was any indication whatsoever via night actions and he definitely eliminated me as a lynch choice for today I think FF or his scumbuddy (which would only work if his scumbuddy was X1) is a mafia roleblocker and has been eliminating potential abductor targets one by one.

Yesterday he presumably had vocal, dastrn/nabe, sir bedevere, and myself as abductor suspects, and at some point he had roleblocked OS and X1 or roleblocked OS and X1 is his scumbuddy.


Lynch vocal, kill nabe, RB me, but there's still an abduction, whose left? Bedevere is our remaining potential abductor.

FrozenFlame is probably mafia, and out of the players in the game the potential buddies in order of likelyness are:

1. X1
2. Dangr
3. Swiss
4. OS

 

[adumbrodeus]

Overall conclusion:


ToDay's play seems to show it the best, Bedevere seems to be looking to lynch anybody, and has absolutely nobody off the table. Furthermore his obsessive wagon jumping seems to suggest that he didn't care who died as long as somebody died that wasn't him. His suggestion of no lynching also seems to suggest that he is in fact either a BP abductor or a one shot BP abductor.

Frozenflame on the other hand seems very sure of the Bedevere lynch as abductor. Given his previous scumlists, it seems highly likely that he's eliminating people one by one as potential abductors, and the only other role I could see doing that is a town roleblocker. Given his overall scummyness and the fact that the NK seems to be a perfect choice to eliminate his suspect, the pieces just fit too well for using process of elimination as a method of finding the abductor and dealing with him. I think the reason why he doesn't wanna just RB bedevere and kill him is that he's concerned that it will just result in this day all over again if bedevere is in fact BP and he doesn't wanna leave town with more time to glean information and connections if he can help it.


We should lynch bedevere toDay, and FF toMorrow. Our abductees definitely need a substantial reread before we move on to anyone after that, probably before we deal with FF toMorrow.





Finally done, ok, comments, questions? I especially wanna hear from OS since he seems basically cleared atm.

 

[Overswarm]

Making a post in which I will vote for sir bedevere in it. Do not vote if you don't want him hammered early.

(anti ninja post)

 

[Overswarm]

vote sir bedevere


I agree with your assumptions, adumb.


Looking at who is left in the final day, I had to find an abductor and a mafia member.

I doubted there were two scum from the beginning. The odds were against it, and then FFlame confirmed it by voting for Sir Bedevere.

If FFlame and Sir Bedevere were scum, there's no way FFlame would vote for him. There would be a chance both you and I could super fast vote for him and Bed would die; hardly ideal for a scum team.

That left a Flame/Adumbrodeus possible scum combo, which I had considered because of this:

FF contributions seem a bit better, minus his scummy case.

Bedevere still needs some rope, badly.

Followed by FFlame voting toDay immediately for Sir Bedevere. However, you didn't vote for Bed right away. You took your time. If two scummates had said "Bed is the abductor", there would have been little need for subtlety or rereading. I wouldn't have had an option to lynch anyone else, and both of you could easily just pull the "I'm stubborn" card to justify it. This is especially true after Bed says "no lynch!"

So, at least one of you is town.


What's more, Bedevere has been completely scattered toDay. It started with him saying "omg guyz, abductor! last chance!" followed by a very, very flawed plan. Cooler heads prevailed from the rest of us and we've each posted our piece now... with Sir Bedevere being silent. His claim is that FFlame is the abductor.

The bashing of heads between the two was the hardest thing about toDay. I wanted to believe Flame was the abductor. It was difficult to make a call seeing as how he replaced in later and he was way off on a different time zone, but he WAS quiet....


Then I noticed Sir Bedevere has disappeared during important discussions, especially today.
He disappeared after he almost got lynched and "came back" and said "oh what? My bad!" and then says "I LIIIIIIIIVE"... and disappears. Same thing again today. He makes the show of activity, then disappears. Repeatedly.

I think there IS a possibility of Frozen Flame being the abductor, but this is based off of only a few tells, one of them being from Pierre. Sir Bedevere's play has reflected that of an indie recently, especially in his panic today.

Adumbrodeus, hammer when you're ready.

 

[Sir Bedevere]

ok, screw this LOL

Hi, I'm Mamayu Yan, Town Cop. My dogs jump at and bark at people they don't like (guilty), and follow around people they do (innocent), although I was told explicitly that that was flavour and no one would know I investigated them.

@BSL

Can't tell you if it's a common occurrence, because I've only seen it a few times in the games I've played. Obviously you shouldn't just believe the person when they say it lol, though I don't think that's what you were saying. Probably best to just ignore it when you see it, but when it comes to a case like Dastrn where he basically just claimed without pressure, we're probably going to have to deal with the issue eventually.

Here's my crumb. No particular reason I responded to BSL here; just hadn't thought about crumbing till then, and saw an opportunity.

Also

You see at the bottom of 567, I said that I was rereading? Did the unvote then immediate vote back not tip you off to something?

^This was actually a mistaken attempt at a cop tell. I remembered reading somewhere (likely the mafiascum wiki) that unvoting then voting a person was considered a cop tell, but it says here that "confirming" a vote is a cop tell. But w/e lool.

So who did I investigate?

os bandwagon seems fun

vote: os

soooooooooo

I have town reads on everyone except OS adum and Pierre.

sooooooooooooooooooo

get back on dat wagon ftw?

Vote: OS

Swiss, you gonna wagon OS with me? :<

Still think OS is mafia, but I can't do anything about that. We'll have to kill him after we get the abductor.

dayummm someone's confident for no particular reason

wonder why

this quote, in response to adum:

Anyways, thus far toDay I've been getting townie vibes from you and I don't think you're abductor, so I don't think you're a play.

...After tunneling him and nearly lynching him the Day before.

hurr durr

In case you weren't keeping track:

N1: OS - Guilty
N2: adum - Innocent

I didn't just flat-out claim at the beginning of D2 because I wanted the abductor dead a lot more than I wanted mafia dead, so letting OS live was OK, especially since no one else seemed to be going for it and I didn't want to claim that early; I said the first part in a post, adum should have it up there in his ISO.

Not sure if I should claim since I don't know if I've been hammered or not. x_X

^Also didn't claim end of Day 2 because if I was lynched, my flip would make it pretty obvious who I investigated (the person I was tunneling for almost the entire Day), and if I wasn't, then hey, I get to keep investigating!

Didn't want to claim toDay either because having the abductor abduct adum or something would make this game so much easier, but you guys don't want it easy. :< Additionally, my flip toDay would make it perfectly clear that I got a scum result on OS, which would likely give him a 0% chance of killing abductor toNight assuming abductor has priority, and that is NOT happening. Much better to claim, get a no lynch, prove that either I or OS is not the abductor, and give town a better shot at winning this game.

---

Yeah so um, how bout that no lynch LOL. I tried to investigate FF but failed (either RB'ed or Jailed, I don't know), so during the Night I'm going to try again and see what happens (HOW BOUT THAT NO LYNCH HURR DURR). The problem is, I don't know how my role differentiates between town/mafia and indy, so if I get an innocent on him, then poop; but with a guilty, we've almost certainly got this (unless I'm insane LOL). I pushed adum off my radar after investigating him initially since an Innocent was more likely to indicate Town, but now I can't take chances.

I think OS and Swiss are the scumteam. DanGR and X1 are obvtown. FF or adum will probably be the play toMorrow.

I'll reread toDay (and respond back to stuff; only here for enough time to put my claim here) to see if I can't just win it for us right now, but it's obviously better for us to no lynch. I still think mafia/OS should shoot; if abductor abducts me, you have a coin flip between adum and FF, much better than the two coin flips you would have to win if you lynched me and were forced to kill the abductor or lose. If abductor abducts you, well, I get my investigation, and that might be enough for us to win it.

vote: no lynch

unvote me pls? :<

 

[#HBC | FrozeηFlame]

Unvote for now.

Need to think about this claim.

 

[Overswarm]

I'd like to check something. I want to make sure we get this right.

So I find it interesting that you've investigated 3 of the 3 people that happened to be left on the final day, yet have said "Why am I left with you three" at the beginning of the day. That would have been an "Oh, I have confirmation Flame is the abductor". You also didn't claim until the very last possible instant. If adumb and I weren't cautious, you would have been lynched.

Your thought process:

If you're not the abductor, if Flame is not investigated, if adumbrodeus is town, if OS is scum

Abductor = FFlame by process of elimination.

So... why, exactly, are you pushing for a No Lynch?

Because if you're a bulletproof abductor, it is only possible for you to die from lynch.

FrozenFlame? Claim. I've been waiting for your post, but it didn't give much information.

With a few responses, I think we can figure this out today pretty easily.

 

[Sir Bedevere]

I'd like to check something. I want to make sure we get this right.

So I find it interesting that you've investigated 3 of the 3 people that happened to be left on the final day, yet have said "Why am I left with you three" at the beginning of the day. That would have been an "Oh, I have confirmation Flame is the abductor". You also didn't claim until the very last possible instant. If adumb and I weren't cautious, you would have been lynched.

To the "why am I left with you three":

Remember those 3 people I said weren't town?

Yeah, this is my nightmare :<

And no, I don't know for sure if FF is the abductor. I have no idea how my role determines someone as "innocent" or "guilty" with respect to independents; for example, the skull kid could be indy, and flavourfully, I would probably determine him as innocent. I don't know what traditionally an indy shows up as when investigated by a guilty/innocent cop (assuming it's the same as it normally is is a recipe for disaster), and obviously Hilt didn't tell me, so investigating FF will either make the FF lynch easy, or make adum a possible indy lynch.

I also don't know if you're really mafia. I say you are because of the general vibes I get from you (your play reminds me a lot of your play in MXC), but my investigation on you doesn't mean you are for sure. I probably should have just claimed D2, got rid of a threat, and saved myself the trouble, but hindsight is 20/20.

As for not claiming till now, it should be obvious how not claiming would be excellent for not-abductors chances of winning (we no lynch, abductor abducts you or something, I investigate FF and maybe just win right there). I told myself I wouldn't claim until I was sure everyone was going for me, and you fulfilled that condition. Yes, I took a risk by not claiming right away, but it's the same risk I took by not claiming at the end of D2 and risking having everyone not see who I crumbed as my guilty. It's possible but unlikely since you're all good, level-headed players and wouldn't lynch me without giving me a chance to claim or say something before I'm hammered (Vocal ain't level-headed ).

Your thought process:

If you're not the abductor, if Flame is not investigated, if adumbrodeus is town, if OS is scum

Abductor = FFlame by process of elimination.

So... why, exactly, are you pushing for a No Lynch?

As I said, adum is not confirmed town, and you are not confirmed mafia; the ambiguity of the independent role messes this up. If I get a guilty on FF, then I'm pushing his lynch full force toMorrow, because I'm pretty sure you're mafia (and if I'm alive to push lynches toMorrow, you're probably abducted), and if I get an innocent, well, we'll see where we stand.

FrozenFlame? Claim. I've been waiting for your post, but it didn't give much information.

Don't claim, especially if claiming gives abductor too much info. Claim toMorrow; you'll most certainly be unabducted to do it, and I can't imagine any claim that would save us now that you wouldn't have claimed already. Although if you really think claiming will help us right now, go for it, I guess.

---

I think I need to make the situation perfectly clear. With adum saying that we "lynch one toDay, lynch one toMorrow", and OS freaking out about me living for a Night (when, even if I am abductor, mafia No Killing will still mean I can die toMorrow and thus no lynching is not an autowin for me), I'm not sure town understands what will happen based on our actions.

Assuming 2 town, 1 mafia, 1 abductor, and barring any protective-type roles:

Path 1: Lynch toDay

a) we lynch town, 2/4 chance of happening. Mafia must win two coin flips (first, choosing the abductor, and second, having the abductor not abduct them and not have priority) or abductor wins, since it's only him and 1 person left. If mafia wins, mafia kills abductor, releasing his captives. At that point, it's 5 people alive, 2 mafia, lylo.

b) we lynch mafia, 1/4 chance of happening. We lose. No one can kill the abductor, he abducts, there's 2 alive, 1 abductor, he wins. That's bad.

c) we lynch abductor, 1/4 chance of happening. Good. It becomes 6 alive, 2 mafia, before mafia kills someone, bringing it to 5 people alive, 2 mafia, lylo, same as a), except mafia gets a free shot at town.

Path 2: No Lynch toDay, mafia does not kill

a) We lose someone (town or mafia, it doesn't really matter) and bring it down to 3 alive, with 1 abductor, so a 1/3 chance of winning. The most straightforward, and my investigation (assuming I wasn't abducted) might be enough to put the odds more in our favour. If we do lynch the abductor this way, we're left with 2 people before the 4 people abducted by the abductor come back, with 6 alive, before mafia gets a free kill on one of us, bringing it to 5 alive, 2 mafia, lylo.

^I actually started freaking out and thought I was leading town into a deathtrap because I thought that lynching the abductor in this situation would mean mafia just kills someone and wins, but I forgot that the abductor abducted an extra person.

/wifom

Path 3: No Lynch toDay, mafia does kill

a) Mafia targets abductor (1/3 chance), abductor targets mafia (1/3 chance). If he has priority (and I think he does), it becomes the same as Path 2 a), and we have our 1/3 chance to lynch FTW. If he doesn't, it becomes 6 alive, 2 mafia, mylo, but I'm pretty sure he has priority.

b) Mafia targets town (2/3), abductor targets town (2/3). If they target the same town, it's basically the same as a), except if abductor doesn't have priority, we might lose someone permanently and lose the game even if we lynch abductor the next Day (since mafia kills one of us the next Night and makes it 4 alive, 2 mafia). If they target different town, we lose. Same 1/3 lynch chance.

c) Mafia targets town (2/3), abductor targets mafia (1/3). If abductor has priority, its the same as a); if not, we lose lol. 1/3 lynch chance assuming that doesn't happen, and again, I doubt it will.

d) Mafia targets abductor (1/3), abductor targets not mafia (2/3). We win woop. We also might get a free clear off of it if we see someone as being abducted, then the abductor is killed and we see those people coming back, but based on the way the NAs have been shown (mafia kill then abductor abduction), that probably won't happen. If this happens, it becomes 6 alive 2 mafia, mylo, which is better than most of the other "we win" options (5 alive, lylo), and it's actually quite likely.

If abductor is BP, well, it screws up Path 3 because mafia have no hope of winning/killing the abductor by doing their kill, they just need to hope that they hit one of the "safe" options and live through to lynch the next Day. But Path 1 is even worse if that's true, since we're riding this one lynch with a 1/4 chance of winning, and if we screw up, being BP means it's over. Rather than the 1/3 chance we have by no lynching, not to mention that my investigation could make that a 1/1 chance.

If we assume abductor is BP, no lynching is strictly better statistically and strategically with what we know of the setup (i.e. my cop investigations).

enough numbers

now i reread

 

[Overswarm]

And if the abductor doesn't abduct?

 

[#HBC | FrozeηFlame]

Bed's "path" analysis seems pretty solid.

I had the same thought as OS when he called you [bed] out for saying "omg why am I stuck with you three
when you have freakin' results on 2/3 of the people left in indy-induced lylo which is like amazing.

For some reason though I believe you Bed when you say that you just didn't like being stuck with all of your top scum reads and said that more out of impulse than actual logical assessment of the situation, based on your alleged role. =/ Pretty much just deciding you were dumb there, not scum.

With this new info on the table, now Bed's initial push for no lynch and asking for a no kill makes sense.

Even if the abductor tries to stall (if he even can, sometimes indies MUST act much akin to your typical SK), at least Bed will get another chance to get a result on me to clear me and thus put the town in a good position after we lynch the abductor and old players come back.

As you can probably already guess, I don't know if I was jailed N3 so I obviously didn't receive any flavour. That could have been a reason for the failed investigation but scum roleblocker isn't out of the question.

Worst case scenario, if the abductor can stall by not abducting, we just come back on D5 in the exact same position we're in now + one more chance at getting an investigation which based on our last flip has a significantly higher chance of succeeding.

Vote: No Lynch

So yeah, scum, don't shoot. Let's get this last investigation taken care of so we can try to figure out exactly what Bed can catch.

 

[Overswarm]

Sir Bedevere, I've determined who the abductor is, but I need you to answer a few questions first for me to be sure.

1) Are you positive you are a sane cop?

2) Have you been affected by any abilities that you know of?

 

[Sir Bedevere]

So I started my reread and remembered I had homework, lol. I'm getting off work early tomorrow, so I'll get down to that stuff then, I promise. >.<

And if the abductor doesn't abduct?

Then they're a terrible player. XP Not abducting does nothing for them. If I get an innocent on FF, it's basically the same as it was before, except you can help us lynch if we run out of time or give us any info that you have if you're a PR. If I get a guilty, I'm still going after FF and adum seems to be with me on this one, so again, little difference. And, as FF said, it's entirely likely they're forced to abduct like an SK.

Sir Bedevere, I've determined who the abductor is, but I need you to answer a few questions first for me to be sure.

1) Are you positive you are a sane cop?

2) Have you been affected by any abilities that you know of?

1) Can I say with absolute certainty? No, although I'm quite sure I am. I didn't get confirmation from Hilt that I'm sane (wasn't in my role PM, I asked just in case, he couldn't answer), and I actually have flavour in my role PM that COULD suggest I'm not sane. But, I have meta that makes me think you're mafia and I believe you're mafia beyond what my role tells me, and in this small a game, wasting a role slot on what is basically a misinformed VT with an abductor screwing things around seems really bad, and the presence of a jailer suggests to me that Hilt chose to balance my role in other ways. I'd say 80:20 in favour of me being sane.

2) Aside from potentially being RB'd/jailed last Night (I reread the PM and it might be that indys just return a different result, but I guess we'll find out toNight), no, I haven't been voteblocked, forcevoted, or had any abilities used on me that I was aware of.

unvoting because I don't want the Day to end yet

unvote

where's adum yo

 

[Overswarm]

Frozen? Claim.

I don't think we can no lynch today.

I want to hear adumbrodeus too.

 

[Overswarm]

By the by, I think this game is ending whether we lynch today or not. No lynch can't go down today.

 

[#HBC | FrozeηFlame]

OS, I appreciate the succintness but seriously, why exactly should I be claiming with no explanation?

I could understand calling for a mass claim maybe in this situation but seriously, why me and not you and Adumb as well?

Also how exactly do you figure the game is over?

If we get the abductor tomorrow (assuming we no lynch here) three people come back into the game which would put us at 5 players. As long as there isn't like a 3 man scum team, how exactly does that end the game?

 

[Overswarm]

OS, I appreciate the succintness but seriously, why exactly should I be claiming with no explanation?

I could understand calling for a mass claim maybe in this situation but seriously, why me and not you and Adumb as well?

Also how exactly do you figure the game is over?

If we get the abductor tomorrow (assuming we no lynch here) three people come back into the game which would put us at 5 players. As long as there isn't like a 3 man scum team, how exactly does that end the game?

You need to claim first because we have the least information on you.

You now have 21 posts. We don't know anything about your role.

We don't know of Sir Bedevere is telling the truth or not. Your claim can help us determine this.

If you don't fill in the details early on, I can't go on because you'll change the details.

Either you or Sir Bedevere is the abductor.

If we don't lynch today, there WILL be Nkill and there WILL be an abduction and the game will be over. You know that.

Assuming Sir Bedevere is telling the truth, "no lynch" doesn't increase our odds in any way shape or form. We'd have all the information already. Think about that for a moment, and ask yourself why you haven't claimed yet.

 

[Overswarm]

Adumb, we need you.

 

[Sir Bedevere]

so apparently early means really late <.<

But I am done.

My mafia read on OS is only stronger. I got the same kinds of vibes I got from him in MXC, as I remember, and not only that, but I saw a significant shift in his playstyle from D1 to D2. He became a lot less aggressive and "confident" and more defensive and reactive, which to me, is a natural mafia reaction to seeing the abduction; he realized he was being threatened on multiple fronts and withdrew to make himself less of a target. He's become less "pronounced" as the Days went on, actually, which could also be an abductor tell, but I trust my read and I'm not lynching OS as is so if he's abductor, GG.

FF I'm a bit less sure of now. Some of the things make me back up a bit on a lot of things (the reasons he was giving for saying OS was town, pretty much), and I'm seeing more of the things he did as town; I think I was just caught up in the Pierre stuff. Leaning town ATM. Maybe claiming will help me get a better grasp on him? OS needs to explain a bit more.

adum seems a lot more abductory now, which makes me extremely confused when OS is saying the abductor is between me and FF, lol. He seemed to be trying to blend in for most of the game, and I dislike how he reacted to basically any connections to people in general. People say he's scum, and he pushes them away. People buddy him, and he pushes them away. It seems like he's trying to avoid any contact/attention, which is exactly how the abductor would react. If we were forced to lynch toDay (which might happen, with OS freaking out about whatever he's freaking out about), I would probably lynch adum.

OS, what makes you so sure there'll be a NK? Is there an SK?

 

[#HBC | FrozeηFlame]

OS, I've been thinking about this for awhile now and I seriously have no idea what you're talking about.

Unless I've missed something obvious (which I don't think I did considering Bedivere doesn't understand where you're coming from with this "the game is gonna end" thing), I really don't understand at all how this game is going to end next in game day at the latest and as a result, why I should claim.

Until you can explain how exactly the game will be over, I'm not claiming. There will theoretically be 3 people coming back into the game after we the get the abductor, of whom there could possibly be mafiats. The status of the game will be rewound after we hit the abductor (though still potentially in lylo) and as such I see so reason to just flat out claim like this is do or die lylo when it isn't based on what we know.

So yeah, do what you will and you can call me an idiot all you want after the game if its obvious but I seriously don't know what you're getting at.

 

[Overswarm]

Yeah, Sir Bedevere isn't voting "no lynch".

And yeah Flame, I feel the same way. It's an odd situation to force claims, I'll admit, but I needed info to figure something out.

Regardless, unvote vote No Lynch

If I'm right, Abductor wins. We'll see.

 

[DtJ Hilt]

Day Four Vote Count
[2] No Lynch: FrozenFlame, Overswarm

[2] Not Voting: Adumbrodeus, Sir Bedevere

Day Four will end November 19th at 3:00 PM.
With four players remaining it takes three votes to lynch.

 

[adumbrodeus]

This is... a very odd situation, the thing is, sir bedevere's claims feels legit. Especially after he called me a godfather when he went for a lynch. Playing a cop poorly, he's only played a few games after all.


But FF's tells are very strong, he's far too methodical in his choices, which leads me to suggest an alternative possibility, maybe roleblocking/jailkeeping doesn't effect the abductor.

 

[Overswarm]

I'm missing something and I don't know what it is.


Adumb, what is the play today? Lynch or no lynch?

 

[Sir Bedevere]

os is confusing the hell out of me

BTW, there's no reason to be voting for no lynch since the Day's almost over and we might as well let it end naturally, just in case someone has an "AHAH!" moment and we need to do something. Though I guess as long as adum doesn't vote for no lynch, that doesn't even matter.

agreeing with OS, adum, we really need your input soon or making any other actions/decisions toDay will be more difficult. We only have 3 days.

 

[Overswarm]

Also, this Friday is my birthday so I may not have access to a PC... >_>

 

[#HBC | FrozeηFlame]

Well happy birthday in advance! I'll be traveling around Tokyo on friday, so I'll be sure to end my day with some extra drinking for the occasion lol.

@ Bed, I guess I can see the the merit of just giving ourselves 3 days hoping someone has some kind of informational epiphany and can pin the abductor pre-night phase, but I'm not really all that confident that something like that will happen lol.

Just for the sake of not dragging things out un-necessarily I'd say we should just end the day soon, but waiting isn't really a big deal. Then again waiting may help put night phase during the majority of my upcoming V/LA which will help me miss less day action.

Eh, whatever. Either or works.

 

[Sir Bedevere]

Ah, didn't consider time schedules and such.

Would hammering now be better for our schedules? I should have about the same level of activity for the next few weeks, so I'm not totally bothered.

I still want adum to get some stances on this down, but if sooner is better for us, then IDK, lol.

 

[#HBC | FrozeηFlame]

So yeah, I'm gonna be V/LA from about now until Tuesday night.

Just a heads up.

 

[Overswarm]

Ditto. Happy birfday to meeeeeeee :B

Bed, end the day.

 

[Sir Bedevere]

birfdayyyyy partayyyyy up in dis threadddd

waitin' on somethin' from adum hurr durr