Majora's Mask Mafia | Game Over!

[#HBC | FrozeηFlame]

Also, FF, I see you're viewing, your thoughts? Am I still a suspect or have I done anything to alleviate your concerns?

Still reading, expect a post very soon.

 

[#HBC | Nabe]

Since you're here, FF, I'll pop this one forward.

FF: say hypothetically, Vocal were lynched and flipped mafo. How would your reads shift?

 

[X1-12]

guys: if vocal gets modkilled (I actually think he deserves to be) and the Day continues, are you up for lynching adum?

 

[#HBC | FrozeηFlame]

Still very much ok with a Vocal lynch and Bedivere only continues to solidify my scum read on him.

Adum not really offering us anything this close to deadline doesn't help either but I'm not about to call the kettle black. Just something for future consideration.

Anyway, long story short Vocal, your role claim is unbelievably piss poor.

You've like flailed around with this incomplete claim with little to explanation about exactly how anyone can confirm you as town if they visit you at night. Like seriously how the hell do you expect anyone to believe you?

http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=11533167&postcount=709
http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=11542018&postcount=778

You also seem to like to use the word potentially a lot when referring to this clearing mechanism. Subconsciously preparing for what you actually know will happen, i.e. you won't be cleared at all? Wouldn't be surprised really, since you won't even full out claim your role name, nor have you explained to us at all how "hearing music" somehow translates into confirming you as town.

Of course, the whole Guru flavour seeming abductorish has to be taken with a grain of salt but it certainly doesn't help your claim either.

But seriously I don't get how you have gone this long wondering why no one is buying your pissant claim when you wont even explain the **** thing. It's really kind of sad.

http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=11539789&postcount=752

And then here is where you really seal the deal for my read on you. How is it exactly that you know that the mafia would allegedly "still be able to kill" even if the abductor takes one of them tonight? You say that the mafia would still be able to kill because you assumed that just stopping one mafiat wouldn't be enough to stop the kill, but how is it that you know that just one mafiat isn't the whole mafia left at this point? Isn't that only knowledge that only the mafia, and potentially abductor (if he can see the flips of who he takes) should know?

Couple that with the fact that it isn't unreasonable at all to think that the abductor could have some sort of anti-tracking power or some night flavour to help work in his favor, considering he's working alone when balancing the game. It's not uncommon to give solo indies little perks like that.

With all that said, you've done nothing to allay my suspicions of you, and as such you remain my top abductor pick.

@ Nabe:

http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=11540661&postcount=762

Not much really. I can see Bedivere or Adum being summates with Vocal, but I find it more likely that it's indyVocal and scumbedivere+scumbrodeus.

@ Bedivere:

http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=11541854&postcount=774

What "stuff" am I supposed to respond to? Your defense? You didn't ask me any questions, you just provided responses to my attacks on you, which I'm still considering. Did I miss something, or what is it exactly that you're waiting on me for?

@ OS:

Yes, right now I currently reside in Japan. I return to the states around Xmas.

 

[#HBC | Nabe]

X1:

What he said was probably worth the modkill, yeah, but since then he's cooled down a bit. Anyway, if the modkill went through, and if Vocal flipped scum, and if we got the extension, I'd be fine with an Adum lynch. But I don't see us getting the votes for that in time, unless OS or Sir Bed fall into the thread before deadline.

Anyway, that all depends on Hilt being here nowish so those events can get moving.

X1, how do you feel about Sir Bed at this point?

 

[X1-12]

I'm not getting the Sir Bed hate, I've never had anything worse than null on him all game. I guess I'll have to re-read but from what I seem to remember, the few posts he was making were legit

 

[-Vocal-]

Still very much ok with a Vocal lynch and Bedivere only continues to solidify my scum read on him.

Adum not really offering us anything this close to deadline doesn't help either but I'm not about to call the kettle black. Just something for future consideration.

Anyway, long story short Vocal, your role claim is unbelievably piss poor.

You've like flailed around with this incomplete claim with little to explanation about exactly how anyone can confirm you as town if they visit you at night. Like seriously how the hell do you expect anyone to believe you?

http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=11533167&postcount=709
http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=11542018&postcount=778

You also seem to like to use the word potentially a lot when referring to this clearing mechanism. Subconsciously preparing for what you actually know will happen, i.e. you won't be cleared at all? Wouldn't be surprised really, since you won't even full out claim your role name, nor have you explained to us at all how "hearing music" somehow translates into confirming you as town.

Of course, the whole Guru flavour seeming abductorish has to be taken with a grain of salt but it certainly doesn't help your claim either.

But seriously I don't get how you have gone this long wondering why no one is buying your pissant claim when you wont even explain the **** thing. It's really kind of sad.

http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=11539789&postcount=752

And then here is where you really seal the deal for my read on you. How is it exactly that you know that the mafia would allegedly "still be able to kill" even if the abductor takes one of them tonight? You say that the mafia would still be able to kill because you assumed that just stopping one mafiat wouldn't be enough to stop the kill, but how is it that you know that just one mafiat isn't the whole mafia left at this point? Isn't that only knowledge that only the mafia, and potentially abductor (if he can see the flips of who he takes) should know?

Couple that with the fact that it isn't unreasonable at all to think that the abductor could have some sort of anti-tracking power or some night flavour to help work in his favor, considering he's working alone when balancing the game. It's not uncommon to give solo indies little perks like that.

With all that said, you've done nothing to allay my suspicions of you, and as such you remain my top abductor pick.

@ Nabe:

http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=11540661&postcount=762

Not much really. I can see Bedivere or Adum being summates with Vocal, but I find it more likely that it's indyVocal and scumbedivere+scumbrodeus.

@ Bedivere:

http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=11541854&postcount=774

What "stuff" am I supposed to respond to? Your defense? You didn't ask me any questions, you just provided responses to my attacks on you, which I'm still considering. Did I miss something, or what is it exactly that you're waiting on me for?

@ OS:

Yes, right now I currently reside in Japan. I return to the states around Xmas.

I gave you everything there is to know about my role. Literally everything that was in my message. If you want to complain about vagueness, blame Hilt.

Second, every game of mafia I've ever been in has never stopped a mafia kill because one of them died. Call me inexperienced but that's not how I play mafia.

I give up. It's pointless to try to fight at this point. Lynch me already so this can be over with, you can see the flip, and I hope to god that you lynch somebody worth it tomorrow.

Unvote Vote: Vocal

 

[-Vocal-]

And I never even did anything wrong...whatever

 

[#HBC | Nabe]

=/ Why are you hammering yourself if you're town, when I've already voiced that I'll be here to hammer? If you're really town, this is helping no one.

Whatever. Anything to claim before Hilt gets here?

 

[X1-12]

I know I keep going on about this BUT: hopefully if he was modkilled all votes after that point wont count so we may actually be able to continue the day and catch another scum

Vocal: Seriously life advice, don't ever get angry over the internet, especailly in mafia

 

[adumbrodeus]

Gah, was almost finished digesting all this info then you had to go and do this vocal?


He's flailing, but I'm pretty sure he's gonna flip town and his flailing is more about his lack of ability in the game as opposed to actually being scum.


FF contributions seem a bit better, minus his scummy case.

Bedevere still needs some rope, badly.

Nade, I really would like to hear the role information that dastrn said he had that suggested that both the abductor and mafia visited swiss last game day.

 

[-Vocal-]

=/ Why are you hammering yourself if you're town, when I've already voiced that I'll be here to hammer? If you're really town, this is helping no one.

Whatever. Anything to claim before Hilt gets here?

If I didn't do it someone else would have. I didn't want to keep "flailing" and making an idiot of myself.

 

[-Vocal-]

I should just not play mafia. Even after I "improved" I still suck terribly. Whatever...

 

[-Vocal-]

@Nabe: I already claimed everything thing there is to claim. I gave you guys every bit of info I have and every tell that I have and it all counted for naught.

 

[#HBC | FrozeηFlame]

Dude, Vocal, chill out.

It's just a game. A game of persuasion and debate, yes, but a game none the less.

No one attacked you personally. Ever. I don't even think anyone said anything along the lines of you being a terrible player. You're beating yourself up over nothing and just acting really immature. It's not like you got epic bandwagonned on D1 or something, so it's not like you've played terribly all game or whatever, otherwise you would've been lynched already.

Just relax dude seriously.

*sigh* I hate it when people freak out like this. Can't read it for ****.

 

[#HBC | Nabe]

Vote: Swiss. I don't know if lynches are immediate around here, but this is an L+1 as a precaution since we're close to deadline and Hilt will probably poke his head in soon.

Nade, I really would like to hear the role information that dastrn said he had that suggested that both the abductor and mafia visited swiss last game day.

Thread at large: bolded is a scumslip if Vocal flips scum, y/n?

Could I have a Dastrn quote on that, Adum? No result I have suggests that.

 

[-Vocal-]

Vote: Swiss. I don't know if lynches are immediate around here, but this is an L+1 as a precaution since we're close to deadline and Hilt will probably poke his head in soon.


Thread at large: bolded is a scumslip if Vocal flips scum, y/n?

Could I have a Dastrn quote on that, Adum? No result I have suggests that.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't I already hammered?

 

[#HBC | Nabe]

Yes, the L+1 is in case someone unvotes. Like I said, I'm unsure of lynch policy here, whether you're considered lynched as soon as the votes are there, or whether it's when the mod gets here and sees the votes. So it's a precaution.

 

[X1-12]

its the norm that once someone is hammered the Day ends, even if the mod isn't there. unvoting after someone has been hammered doesn't stop anything

 

[#HBC | FrozeηFlame]

Nabe why are you voting for Swiss who not only isn't even in the game atm, but post hammer of all times?

Like seriously wat?

Also, adum is referring to some post dastrn made where he said his role gave him info that suggested swiss was both targeted for NK and for abducting. Just search for all of dastrns posts and go in reverse order, you'll find it. It's not like he has many posts anyway.

 

[#HBC | Nabe]

olol. I totally thought I wrote Vocal. No lie.

Thanks for the rule clarification, X1.

FF, I realize it's easy for me to read through Dastrn's posts. I asked Adum to do it because I wanted Adum to do it. a) It shouldn't be my work to do, and b) we need more content from Adum.

Here's what I assume is the post.

I think Scum must have targeted Swiss.
My role doesn't have anything helpful Vocal, other than giving me reason to think Swiss dodged a bullet.

My answer is the same: I don't have a result that suggests that Swiss dodged a bullet. I can certainly look at the fact that Swiss was abducted, and the fact that there was no NK, and draw a possible line between the two, but anyone could do that.

Again, I have to say that I think Dast was trying to project a large role to make himself NK bait. That's the only reasonable conclusion I can draw.

 

[DtJ Hilt]

Night of the Third Day
(Sorry for the late arrival, guys)

-Vocal-, Guru-Guru, the Music Box has been lynched!

Day Three Vote Count
[1] Sir Bedevere: Overswarm
[4] Vocal: Frozenflame, X1-12, Sir Bedevere, Vocal
[1] Frozenflame: Adumbrodeus

[1] Not Voting: Nabe

The night phase will last until Sunday, November 7th at 11:59 PM, so send me your night actions before then!<object width="0" height="0"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/qgHulaIG1H0?fs=1&amp;hl=en_US&amp;fs=1?rel=0&autoplay=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/qgHulaIG1H0?fs=1&amp;hl=en_US&amp;fs=1?rel=0&autoplay=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="0" height="0"></embed></object>

 

[DtJ Hilt]

Dawn of the Fourth Day

Nabe, Anju, the Town Jail Keeper has been killed!

X1-12 has been abducted. He is no longer able to talk or vote. He will not count towards the vote count and can not be lynched or killed in any way, outside of modkills. Any information regarding whether he can or will return to the game can not be given.

With four players remaining it will take three to lynch. The deadline has been set for Friday, November 19th at 3:00 PM.

 

[Sir Bedevere]

AHHHHHH WHY AM I LEFT WITH YOU 3

also wtf @ jailer being cumulative LOL

abductor mylo tiem

We can't mislynch toDay. We can no-lynch, have the abductor abduct another one of us, and pray that there is no SK/the mafia aren't stupid enough to kill someone. I kind of like that idea, because even if there is an SK, there's only a 1/3 chance we lose (either he kills abductor, kills the person being abducted, or does something else and we lose lol).

Still think OS is mafia, but I can't do anything about that. We'll have to kill him after we get the abductor.

FF is most likely the abductor at this point, but not by much. Need to reread.

I have no idea about adum anymore.

why is there a music box role ;-;

 

[Overswarm]

We can't mislynch toDay. We can no-lynch, have the abductor abduct another one of us, and pray that there is no SK/the mafia aren't stupid enough to kill someone. I kind of like that idea, because even if there is an SK, there's only a 1/3 chance we lose (either he kills abductor, kills the person being abducted, or does something else and we lose lol).

You think there is an SK? And the SK would attempt to kill the abductor, but the mafia wouldn't?

 

[DtJ Hilt]

Swiss, you are not allowed to speak or vote. Consider this a warning. Do not do it again until you have been given permission to do so.

 

[Sir Bedevere]

It's possible there's an SK and no mafia, but I think it's more likely that there's mafia and no SK. Makes me comfortable with no lynching though since that should be all the possibilities, and no-lynching (almost) accounts for all of that.

The SK would attempt to kill the abductor because he would HAVE to try and kill the abductor, since I'm assuming the SK would have to kill every Night, like a standard SK.

The mafia wouldn't because more than likely there's only one mafia left, and if we no-lynch, they too have a 1/3 chance to hit the abductor. However, if I were in the mafia's shoes, I definitely wouldn't be attempting to kill the abductor when you have the possibility of losing the whole game all at once; no logic in that. Just see who the abductor abducts and go from there.

No-lynching also means any remaining PRs will be able to use their abilities and can give what results they found toMorrow, whereas lynching and weighing everything on this one lynch/kill from the mafia is risky, especially when mislynching the mafia/the mafia getting abducted just kills us.

Here are the ways we lose (assuming no blocking roles):

Lynch toDay:
-we lynch the last mafia
-we don't lynch the abductor, mafia fails to kill abductor

No-Lynch toDay:
-mafia/SK kill not the abductor nor the person they target, though mafia doesn't have to kill
-we don't lynch the abductor toMorrow (we lose no matter what, assuming abductor has priority over kills)

Unless I'm leaving something out, No-Lynch is better than Lynch IMO.

lol wtf swiss

 

[Overswarm]

Wait, so you think there's a serial killer that is going to kill... leaving us with 3 players left.

And an abductor, that is going to abduct someone... leaving us with 2 players left.

Meaning we have to hope the SK kills the abductor because otherwise the abductor would have won, seeing as there would only be two people and he can abduct.


FoS Sir Bedevere

Adumbrodeus and Flame need to post toDay too.

 

[Sir Bedevere]

hmmmmm

Actually, I think it's better if the mafia DOES do a NK assuming we no-lynch.

Assuming there is 1 abductor, 1 mafia, and 2 town right now, and we no lynch and the abductor abducts 1 town and the mafia no kills, we have a 1/3 shot of killing the abductor. We miss, we lose, assuming abductor has priority. We can't get any better or worse than 1/3 like this.

Assuming there is 1 abductor, 1 mafia, and 2 town right now, and we no lynch and the abductor abducts 1 town and the mafia DOES kill, we have a 2/3 chance of not losing, by either them killing the abductor or killing the person the abductor abducted. If they got him, great, we get some people back and can play a standard mafia game. If they hit the guy being abducted, OK, we either lose a townie forever (not great) or get another person in abduction (fine) depending on priorities, and we end up in the same place we would have if mafia No killed. If they hit neither, well, we're probably dead without some PRs interfering, but we/mafia took the same 1/3 chance that Night that we would have taken toMorrow anyway, so the only big difference is they did it based on their own decisions instead of the town's collective (but we're gonna use this Day to abductor hunt anyway, so apart from PR results, they don't learn much new).

Didn't do the math, but I'm pretty sure no-lynching+mafia killing has better odds statistically for us not losing to abductor. Only thing against it are PR results (I can't actually think of any that would help that we haven't already lost, aside from a cop that uses "town" and "not-town" and not "mafia" and "not-mafia") and maybe scum having less info than town, but I think I'd rather trust the scum's judgment and potential info at this point LOL.

@OS, I already explained (in my post here and before >____>), but an SK only has a 1/3 shot of making us lose. He either kills abductor (yay, town back in it) or kills/attempts to kill the person being abducted, which still leaves us with 3 (yay, town still in it barely). Him killing neither is a risk, but it's the same risk we take by lynching toMorrow, and we have worse odds of hitting abductor toDay than toMorrow.

Convinced no lynch is the right play toDay, not completely sold on letting mafia kill. What does everyone else think?

 

[Overswarm]

not completely sold on letting mafia kill

How do you plan to stop them?

 

[-Vocal-]

Or rather, I won't be.

 

[#HBC | FrozeηFlame]

I seriously like don't even need to math out Sir Beds drivel to know that he's gotta be the abductor.

Principally, you want to take a method we absolutely know for sure of eliminating the abductor (i.e. lynching, unless Hilt pulled some crazy bull**** and made him unlynchable or some crap) right off the table.

And then you want to put the game in the hands of the scum and/or an SK (lolwut) that we've had no suggestion even exists?

This has got to be the worst plan I've ever heard.

Couple that with the fact that what happens if the abductor is bulletproof? This is a typical ability that solo indies have. Why isn't that in your considerations Bed? Carefully omitting it since, if you are indeed bulletproof, no lynching and trying to rely on NK's nets you a free win?

Weighing the odds of scum potentially nking the abductor vs. us lynching him has no merit when you don't even know for sure if he CAN be Nk'd. Such a bad assumption.

I really thought it would be harder deciding who between you and adumb was the play.

Vote: Sir Bed

 

[Sir Bedevere]

maybe adum understands the logic in my plan? :>

How do you plan to stop them?

lol silly wording

more like, tell mafia that killing is beneficial to their faction.

be great if you did something other than question non-existent holes in my plans/suggestions BTW

Principally, you want to take a method we absolutely know for sure of eliminating the abductor (i.e. lynching, unless Hilt pulled some crazy bull**** and made him unlynchable or some crap) right off the table.

Right. Just for today.

We lynch tomorrow assuming mafia don't mess up this Night.

Just like we would lynch toDay with the assumption that mafia don't mess up this Night.

We get an extra 1/3 shot of hitting the abductor, with an additional 1/3 shot of messing up (and a 1/3 shot of nothing happening). Seems better than 1/4.

And then you want to put the game in the hands of the scum and/or an SK (lolwut) that we've had no suggestion even exists?

Well, unless someone here has info/a role that they're willing to claim that will help us for sure survive against the abductor, yeah, I am. Mafia might have some sort of awkward role that helps find the abductor that they don't want to claim for some reason (can't think of any ATM, though >.>). We lay out who we think is the abductor here, we hope mafia uses their best judgment, and if they didn't hit the 1/3 explosion of death, we get another shot toMorrow.

I'm also pretty confident that scum won't hit the unabducted person. :>

Someone's skimming. We've already talked about (well, mentioned ) the possibility of an SK+abductor indy combo. I think it's possible, especially with the weird number for the setup, but mafia is still more likely IMO.

Couple that with the fact that what happens if the abductor is bulletproof? This is a typical ability that solo indies have. Why isn't that in your considerations Bed? Carefully omitting it since, if you are indeed bulletproof, no lynching and trying to rely on NK's nets you a free win?

First, I think it's highly unlikely that the abductor is BP, so I'm not anywhere near whatever messed up sinking ship of a mafia game you think we're in. Assuming lynches, kills and abducts every Night, we only have 3 shots to get the abductor, and considering we weren't even aware of him for a day, I don't think that's likely at all.

Second, that doesn't increase our chances to lose, though it does mean that the killing faction has no reason to kill (so if you think the abductor is BP, mafia, don't shoot). All it means is shooting the abductor will be the same as No killing and we'll be on to the next day with one person less to consider. The additional chance at killing the abductor is still worth the risk IMO.

I really thought it would be harder deciding who between you and adumb was the play.

No thought to OS? You buddies? Or scumbuddies?

You guys wanna claim scum together so we can lynch adum? :D

This has got to be the worst plan I've ever heard.

Sooo, if I'm reading you right, your master plan is to lynch today, and assuming we mess up (1/4 chance to get it right; probably will), put our lives in the hands of scum (omg ahhh so scary, much scarier than the abductor directing our lynch toDay), of which the abductor has a 1/2 chance of correctly abducting and likely outprioritizing, if we hadn't already lynched the mafia toDay in the first place (1/4 chance ho boy)?

Way better amirite?

 

[Overswarm]

Waiting on you adumb. What's your take?

 

[#HBC | FrozeηFlame]

Bedevere, how can you seriously post something like that, where you try and argue numbers with me, when literally all of your stupid numbers are baseless because you make completely baseless assumptions about the nature of the abductor and the scum. Like your entire post is completely ludicrous.

I've already told you, the one thing we know for sure is that we have a 1/4 chance, right now, of lynching the abductor and eliminating him. Barring complete bull**** game design (i.e. unlynchable abductor), we know that for sure.

Your plan assumes the abductor is not BP which is a completely baseless assumption. Why the hell shouldn't an abductor be BP? He's just like any other normal SK except his targets get temporarily stored, not eliminated permanently. It's very common to give solo SK's some form of BPness. How is it exactly then, that an abductor being some form of BP is "so unlikely"? You seriously just claim that it's incredibly unlikely without offering any substantial reasoning that differentiates the abductor from another normal solo indy that would justify withholding that helpful and I'd argue necessary buff (in most cases, for faction balance purposes) to an abductor.

Bearing this in mind, your numbers go to ****. You claim that we're guaranteed a 1/3 chance to win tomorrow if we don't pick the 1 bad option tonight. What happens when the Abductor is BP and we're guaranteed to have the worst result? Sorry, but your bull**** 1/3 chance isn't real. We don't have it at all. We don't know what our real chances are if we leave this game to be resolved by the scum or whoever you are planning to be our saving grace.

I didn't skim at all, nice try at a low blow though. Just because someone mentioned off hand the possibility of an SK doesn't mean there is any in-game evidence to suggest there is one in the game. I could say right now "heys guys there might be a jester/warlock/lyncher" etc. in this game, but that doesn't change the fact that thus far, nothing suggests any of those roles exist in this setup.

****ing lol @ implying I'm trying to buddy OS. We're in LYLO numbskull. You honestly think I would move him from my top town read to a contestant for today's play when both you and adum, my top two scum picks from when I came into this game, are on the table? I don't think so.

Me narrowing my choices to you and Adum has nothing to do with getting some form of dubious buddy credit you're trying to make me out to be after and everything to do with sticking to my strongest reads and trying to ****ing win this game.

 

[Overswarm]

Adum really needs to be a part of this too. If Bedevere is pushing for a no lynch, we'd need adum's vote to lynch him anyways.

 

[#HBC | FrozeηFlame]

Well yeah, for us to do anything constructive in this situation, we need 3/4 people in agreement anyway, and seeing as how Sir Bed and I clearly don't see eye to eye, with us being 2 of the 3 active people so far, we won't be reaching 3/4 majority any time soon.

So yeah, Adum needs to hop to it.

 

[adumbrodeus]

Working on it, I think I figured something useful out but I need to reread nabe and dastrn to be sure, so NA analysis to follow when I have this thoroughly researched.

 

[Sir Bedevere]

Bedevere, how can you seriously post something like that, where you try and argue numbers with me, when literally all of your stupid numbers are baseless because you make completely baseless assumptions about the nature of the abductor and the scum. Like your entire post is completely ludicrous.

If by "baseless" you mean "no actual facts", then yeah, I can't argue against that: I'm making assumptions with no real facts to back it up.

But why are you, then, voting me, when you have no factual base for it? You an indycop or something? How can I believe you unless you post your role PM? Where's the proof?

oh wait this is mafia

where you have to make educated guesses based on intentions, history, interactions, and what i'm using now, meta

hurr durr

I've already told you, the one thing we know for sure is that we have a 1/4 chance, right now, of lynching the abductor and eliminating him. Barring complete bull**** game design (i.e. unlynchable abductor), we know that for sure.

Also barring BS game design (abductor has an additional one-shot kill omg), we can pretty much guarantee that we'll have a 1/3 chance of lynching the abductor toMorrow, assuming mafia decide not to NK (and if they think he's BP and don't want to take the risk, they can do so). Unless you think there's an SK?

Your plan assumes the abductor is not BP which is a completely baseless assumption. Why the hell shouldn't an abductor be BP? He's just like any other normal SK except his targets get temporarily stored, not eliminated permanently. It's very common to give solo SK's some form of BPness. How is it exactly then, that an abductor being some form of BP is "so unlikely"? You seriously just claim that it's incredibly unlikely without offering any substantial reasoning that differentiates the abductor from another normal solo indy that would justify withholding that helpful and I'd argue necessary buff (in most cases, for faction balance purposes) to an abductor.

Why SHOULD the abductor be BP?

This game is small. Smaller than average. Have you seen any BP indys in a game this small? Serious question, I don't remember seeing any in small games and IMO it seems broken balancewise without giving scum/mafia some serious boosts, and I haven't seen anything that suggests those boosts are present (although I guess that isn't saying much).

I think a BP SK in a game this size is unlikely too. It just ends the game too fast for town (and scum) to catch up. This game might have been over now if we lynched D2 and the mafia killed N2.

Bearing this in mind, your numbers go to ****. You claim that we're guaranteed a 1/3 chance to win tomorrow if we don't pick the 1 bad option tonight. What happens when the Abductor is BP and we're guaranteed to have the worst result? Sorry, but your bull**** 1/3 chance isn't real. We don't have it at all. We don't know what our real chances are if we leave this game to be resolved by the scum or whoever you are planning to be our saving grace.

Yeah, we don't know a lot of things. Like if I'm actually the abductor. Or if Vocal's role really is as useless as it seems.

That's why we make educated guesses about these kinds of things.

mafia hurr durr

Also like to point out that we don't know if we have a 1/4 chance toDay either. Someone voteblocked amirite? Granted, that's unlikely, but that's just about as unlikely as a BP abductor IMO.

Alright, so you're really against having the mafia NK because if the abductor is BP, it's a useless and potentially deadly shot; I can understand that, you want to play it safe. But why are you against no lynch? I really see little to no risk in giving mafia the wheel for a little bit, when it's both ours AND their hides that are on the line. They're going to make a decision that best gives them the opportunity to win against the abductor, not the one that completely ****s everything up for us. So, if you can sufficiently prove that shooting toNight (assuming no lynch) is the absolute worst thing mafia could do, and convince them of that, then no lynching toDay should not be a risk for you at all, and we get to decrease our pool of possible lynch candidates toMorrow (and thus, get a better shot at getting the abductor).

I didn't skim at all, nice try at a low blow though. Just because someone mentioned off hand the possibility of an SK doesn't mean there is any in-game evidence to suggest there is one in the game. I could say right now "heys guys there might be a jester/warlock/lyncher" etc. in this game, but that doesn't change the fact that thus far, nothing suggests any of those roles exist in this setup.

****ing lol @ implying I'm trying to buddy OS. We're in LYLO numbskull. You honestly think I would move him from my top town read to a contestant for today's play when both you and adum, my top two scum picks from when I came into this game, are on the table? I don't think so.

Me narrowing my choices to you and Adum has nothing to do with getting some form of dubious buddy credit you're trying to make me out to be after and everything to do with sticking to my strongest reads and trying to ****ing win this game.

hurr durr called a joke

And yeah, let's just assume there's no SK and make decisions with that completely out of the equation. Seems logical IMO.

oh wait that's what I'm doing with the BP abductor thing

except i'm making an educated guess that BPness is unlikely while an SK is much less so

woop

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Think I know what adum's going for.

Will reread once he gives his opinions and such out (or sooner if he takes a a while).

 

[Overswarm]

Are we just dodging prods while waiting on adumbrodeus?