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At that point, scum Soup only has to No Kill and you mislynch. Unless scum is compelled to kill, in which case they can target Joey repeatedly anyway, a mislynch guarantees a mislynch.
At that point, scum Soup only has to No Kill and you mislynch. Unless scum is compelled to kill, in which case they can target Joey repeatedly anyway, a mislynch guarantees a mislynch.
First of all, there are probably 2 scum left. What a no lynch means is we don't kill anyone, now Joey gets to track ONE player toNight for free. With You, Soup, Kary, and Rake in the game, that's a 25% chance to catch someone visiting the player who dies the next Day. Scum has a 75% chance to get away with a kill, very good odds for scum. That leaves next day as 3-2, after that town HAS to lynch, however, because there are most likely 2 scum, literally no one except Joey is cleared. (I'll be dead 100% sure about that). Now, even if scum is caught the next Day upon a no lynch, Joey will be NKed. Leaving town in a 2-1 situation. So there is a 25% chance of gaining info by no lynching toDay and then a 40% chance to catch scum the following Day. UPON catching the scum and going into the 2-1 situation there is 33% chance to catch the last scum. Doing the math .25 x .33 = .0825| .4 x .33 = .132| .132 + .0825 = 21.45% chance to catch both scum with AM's plan of no lynching toDay.
HOWEVER if we lynch today and catch scum, that means toNight we get 1 completely usable result. Since i'll be killed and scum will be at their last person, that means Joey has a 2/3s chance to track someone, get no result, and therefore confirm them as town. Inversely he has a 33% chance to catch a scum in the act. The only way that wouldn't happen is if scum does NOT NK, even then that's fine because that means the next Day is 4-1 and that's a day to draw more connections. ALSO the game is no longer Lylo meaning a mislynch -can- be burned. In that situation a no lynch checkmate can also occur because there will be only 1 scum left. Also, mathematically with me and Joey cleared and 2 scum, there is a 50% chance to catch scum toDay, then assuming that works out, 1 player WILL be cleared or confirmed scum toNight, leaving the game at worst at 50% chance to catch scum toMorrow. Factor in the 33% chance to get a NA confirm on scum, and you're looking at .5 x .33 = .165| .5 x .5 = .25| .25% + .165% = 41.5% chance to catch both scum if we lynch toDay.
I'm looking at AM's proposed plan, seeing the holes in it and how it helps scum, and just shaking my head. Guys, can we just lynch AM yet? There's so much about the slot that looks scummy that I can't believe no one else sees this.
Rake IS scum. It's just fact. There's no way he is not scum. I have preached this since Circus flipped town. There ARE two scum left. Rake and one other. As soon as you lynch Rake, there is one scum left.
Actually. I just did the math. I am perfectly okay with dying tomorrow IF there is no kill and Kary/Joey swear to me to lynch Soup when I flip town. A 4v1 makes it so we can afford to lynch me. I'm good with it.
I don't know. I'm trying to decide if you and Sokr can co-exist being that Sokr was a damn jailer. That plan is literal balls but wouldn't scum ryker know that ? i feel like there's almost no way with how tactical scum ryker is, that he suggests just a terrible plan, unless it was for people to do exactly what im doing now I suppose.
I'm going through nabe's posts, i feel like their's connections to be made there.
Also still really unconfortable with kary but asssuming AM scum is he really scum with Kary ? I have a hard time getting there which means I have to acknowledge that soup once again styled all over me as scum
which is really hard because soup's play is sooo damn townie. His hesitancy on me , you and even circus as I recall does not lend itself to how i view soup as scum
It was raining outside as the ghosts tried, for the fifth day in a row, to rid the mansion of intruders. Lightning flashed, illuminating the windows for a moment so that the stark silhouette of the downpour shone through. A crash of thunder accompanied it. One of the ghosts floated by the paintings on the wall, examining them. Another ghost drifted over.
"Eet eez marvelous, no?" said the second ghost.
"Huh?" the other replied.
"Ze painting! Eet eez marvelous. Eet eez beautiful! Eet eez..." the ghost exhaled in satisfaction. "Eet eez perfect."
"What the hell? It's not perfect, it's horrible!" said the first ghost. The second ghost stopped and stared at the first ghost in shock. If he wasn't a ghost, tears would have welled up in his eyes.
"And here I was... sinking eet was my finest creation."
The ghost wailed in despair and fled from the mansion. As he left he cried out,
"I vill go where my work eez appreciated!"
Rake, Vincent Van Gore, the Starving Artist, Town Painter has been lynched!
By now the mansion was almost empty, with its inhabitants either gone from the mansion or turned into a portrait. The five remaining ghosts looked to one another, in fear more than suspicion now. These were ghosts that had shared the mansion for many years. How could there be evil amongst them? And how could it have eluded them all this time?
Lightning flashed again, accompanied by a crash of thunder. Once again the windows lit up, flashing in all the ghosts' eyes. When they could see once more, they noticed that two more ghosts were gone. The three remaining ghosts turned to the wall of portraits, but before they could discover the latest casualties there was another flash. It wasn't lightning this time.
The lights of the mansion were always kept off. Why were they now flickering?
The ghosts were completely disoriented, flying every which way in their confusion. Then they heard the noise.
Vroooooooooooooooooooooooom.
"What was that?"
Vroooooooooooooooooooooooom.
"It can't be."
"Oh no...."
"Woof! Woof! Woof!"
Vroooooooooooooooooooooooom.
The ghosts were in a frenzy, flying all about the room trying to avoid the vacuum. However, being unable to see as they were, they didn't stand a chance. One by one they fell victim to the cruel device, and one by one they were silenced. When all was quiet once more, the mansion lights came on for good. A knock could be heard at the front door. Professor E. Gadd stepped over to open it and let Luigi back in.
"Ah, there you are, Luigi! Great work out there. We've managed to capture all of the ghosts in the mansion. Except for Madame Clairvoya, of course. We shall leave the Fortune Teller Room dark and allow her to remain there for her assistance. Now, let's get these down to the Gallery, shall we?" E. Gadd patted the Poltergust 3000 as he spoke.
"Okay!" Luigi said, nodding.
Aggressive Mediation, Spooky, the Hungry Guard Dog, Vanilla Townie was turned into a portrait in endgame!
Kary, Sue Pea, the Dozing Girl, Vanilla Townie was turned into a portrait in endgame!
Masquerain, Shivers, the Wandering Butler, Town Tracker was turned into a portrait in endgame!
I want people to first and foremost stop blaming or looking for someone to blame for this loss. Town got outplayed, simple as that. Rake did not play well and it's why we took the opportunity to push him into a win. The thread was a constant argument fest which let me and dabuns hardly get involved because townies were too busy throwing dirt at each other. Are we to say that means towns played poorly and it was an 'easy win' for scum? No. Scum played well enough that town didn't suspect them. I won't say that I didn't have bumps, but the reason we won this game (our scum-team) is because we were totally on top of things. We were communicating. We were talking to each other on what we should do. I absolutely loved playing scum with Nabe and Dabuz because everything was planned.
lol at people saying my play was bad d4 i falled back on my typical 'wahh wahh soup is depressed and sad meta' in order to coast through because i didn't know what direction to take
Wp soup, dabuz, nabe. Wrong on rake. Disappointed and need to figure out where i went wrong on that. Felt there was a reason i was alive but didn't follow that through. Marshy gorf town?
still mobile. Catch up tomorrow.
lol at people saying my play was bad d4 i falled back on my typical 'wahh wahh soup is depressed and sad meta' in order to coast through because i didn't know what direction to take
The way you interacted with nabe heavily reminded me of your interactions in toonami and i would have lynched you on that alone. Plus you flipped heavily the last couple days. It wlrked though so.props
The way you interacted with nabe heavily reminded me of your interactions in toonami and i would have lynched you on that alone. Plus you flipped heavily the last couple days. It wlrked though so.props
Look, I know how easy it is to have graveyard vision. Even I have it at times, but I seriously doubt if you were in this game you would do jack****. You weren't in the same situation as the townies and you had prior knowledge.
trust my gut more. I had really strong town reads at points but i didn't let them be definitive when i should have, especially on Circus. I knew there was a reason I found him townie but i just let myself believe he was scum until it dawned on me I was being dumb. Same goes for nabe abd dabuz, i had scum reads on them and let them slide away. Really need to work on trusting myself more and possibly playing less open.
take more time. I wasn't townie enough when i was here, i was guilty of playing not amazingly in the time i was here and that detrimented my ability to gain cred to myself late game.
Cover my ears when nabe claims. Seriously, i think this is the second time in two games where i entertain his claims to make sure and find myself buying them, at least in Sepiroth maf i was smarter.
I really wish people woulda listened when i questioned the doc claim, i understand why they didnt due to my position in the thread but Doc + jailer jis just no
thats not graveyard vision soup. thats "damn soups acting weird as **** in lylo and when nabes going down let me go by dayplay over claims" vision. if you want to sit here and say you outplayed town thats fine if in poor taste but no need to **** on people who were watching the game in a sane manner
I played excellent this game. I'm boasting because I ****ing did. It feels great. I was so concerned about my play crumbling and I had to resort to my typical meta in order to patch up the parts I couldn't cover. I wanted that win d4 but I sacrificed Nabe and got my head on straight again. Kantrip is absolutely right, I was getting anxious. I was worried about things falling apart. Dabuz was such a good partner too that we were able to plan ahead. The communication I had with my team was bar none and it was literally a joy just seeing how well we worked together.
You know who else played excellent this game? Dabuz. He surprised me. He's a very competent scum and very cooperative. I even tried to distance him earlier on and he just played it off so well I kinda lost my reason to even distance and I was able to coast on everyone town-reading him. It was so surprising to see that I was literally scum with Dabuz and the only one pushing him besides marshy. Well done. Great Doctor claim too.
Nabe did great too. He made it all the way to d3 with such a null and lurkish play and he played his cards when he needed to. He pushed that Jerkus lynch and everyone just ate it up. I was concerned about him for a while but it goes to show that I shouldn't doubt the man. I would have felt terrible if I lost for Nabe based on everything he did.
thats not graveyard vision soup. thats "damn soups acting weird as **** in lylo and when nabes going down let me go by dayplay over claims" vision. if you want to sit here and say you outplayed town thats fine if in poor taste but no need to **** on people who were watching the game in a sane manner
