Hmmm...Ness, eh? There just so happens to be a pretty good Ness player that lives here. Hopefully I can give some decent advise on Ness, eh?
NESS
Behavior/fundamental moves: I haven't played that many Ness players, but there's one who lives in NM who is VERY good, and so I'll be going off of what he does.
Ness players like their aerial game a lot. A LOT. His fair has a lot of range, and sadly it outranges our own fair. I don't know if it outranges our bair or not, but if someone could check on that, that would be helpful. Anyways, they like to short hop a fair and then do their double jump and do it again. It's very annoying and kinda difficult to get around. Usually they come right back down on you with a dair which is often auto-canceled. It's a typical pattern that I noticed, so look for things like that in a Ness player. It's not as easy as it looks to punish it either. Or maybe it is. You could simply predict the double jump and chase him with your uair. That works a lot. You could wait for him to land and play it from there, etc.
Now...Ness' favorite moves:
PKfire: This move is not as scary as it seems. It can be tap DI'ed rapidly out of just like the turtle of G&W. If you tap DI up and out then they can't grab you either. That's not a good combo to be stuck in, trust me.
PKthunder: This move is WAAAAAAAYYY better with Ness than with Lucas. Ness' is a heck of a lot faster, and if you just get skimmed with it, it doesn't disappear. Avoid it like the plague. Especially off the stage and when you're way up at the top of the screen. It's much more spammable than Lucas'. You can cancel it out if you hit it with an aerial like the fair, or with any move, actually.
Psimagnet: This move pretty much negates the AS. Kinda sucks, actually. It doesn't have the killing potential that Lucas' has, but it's still really annoying. If you think that you can spam BAS and punish him in lag...you're wrong. It can be cancelled. You can shoot AS/Bas until he's around 30% or so, but still...be sparing about using AS here. It's better to just hit him with an AS than have him ever absorb it.
Fsmash: This move is deadly, and it has very deceptive range. Keep way out of its range. It has a slight start-up lag and Ness will say something too so try and watch for those signs, it will help you to avoid it or put your shield up and block it. It's kinda slow, but it's still really powerful.
bthrow: ...huh...this move is ridiculously powerful. If you're above 100%, you'd better be extra careful. It will kill you very quickly. Avoid it as much as possible. And if you get caught in the PKfire, you need to DI out as quickly as you can.
PKT2: Nehe...I used to get hit with this move all the time. I would get too greedy and rush towards him and then BOOM! I died. Anyways, if you're trying to gimp Ness, do it only if you are relatively close to his off-stage position, because if he has enough time to get this move off...well, you're probably not going to live through it. However, if you hit his lightning bolt with anything it cancels out, even if you throw your own body into it. Ness will try using this on stage too, but that usually happens when you're in the air above him. First he'll spam his PKT, and then when you land he may just circle it around and use PKT2. Please avoid this, or better yet, DT it!
I think that's all of their fundamental moves...
Lucario's strategy: Ness actually can't do very much to us. Our grab range is CRAPPY, so we can't grab him very often. If you get a grab off, pummel him as many times as possible and end with some throw or other. At higher percents, the fthrow is best. The usmash is a good killing move, but it has a lot of start-up lag, so if you don't time it well and space, then you're going to get hit with Ness' dair. Our AS is very useful when Ness is off the stage and trying to recover. If you're good enough you can gimp him, but that's definitely risky because if he gets his up-b off before you reach him...you're screwed. Unless you shoot your AS at him and hit his thunder bolt. You're fsmash is very powerful, so save it as a kill move. Use your FP as a kill move too. His fair outranges ours, so if he short hops towards you, you should know he'll either do that or a PKfire. Then double-jump, then dair...this pattern is probably different with other Ness players. Stay away from his grab. At higher percents they will do anything to grab you, so be ready to spot dodge it, roll, etc. Just don't get grabbed. If you predict it correctly and get out of the way, you should be able to punish him. Ness' bair is pretty strong too, so keep away from it, as it also has a lot of range.
Stages:
A stage that I was able to completely **** Ness on was:
Frigate Orpheon: For whatever reason, Lucario just kills Ness on this stage, at least in my experience. It was pretty bad compared to the other 2 matches.
That's all I've got time for on stages. I might edit again later, but with what I'm not sure right now. Possibly Rainbow Cruise, and some other ones. Maybe stages to avoid too.
Overall match-up: I think that the match-up is actually closer to even, maybe even slightly in Lucario's favor. Ness' really don't have that much to do to you(kinda like Snake, only Snake is broken so he gets away with it), so they repeat moves very often. If you can predict their many move patterns, you can punish them for it. You will win if you do that. Ness can kill us VERY early if you get too greedy or are not careful, so play patiently. He can also kill us with his stupid bthrow at a relatively low %, so avoid his grab. His fair beats ours, but we have more range in general. We can gimp him pretty easily, so please do so, but be careful about it.
I am inclined now to say that the match-up is either 50:50, or else it is 55:45 Lucario. Although Ness can't mix his game up all that much, the moves he can pull off on you are extremely potent.
Erich out.
