Hmmm...I still think that G&W isn't as hard a match-up as those posts by the G&W players say. Notice how none of them mention you can tech the dthrow, or that you have more priority than the stupid turtle. Really, 70:30 is just RIDICULOUS. Obviously he's never played a good Lucario, whoever that was. I would say 60:40 G&W. If you have really good spacing, this match-up shouldn't be too much of a problem. If you don't space so well...then you're in for a very rough time. I definitely think that much. But I'm like, the god of spacing(I was in Melee too. If you ever played me you would know. The one comment of frustration I got in almost every single match was: WHY DO YOU SPACE AS GOOD AS KEN?!?!?!?), so I don't really have too much trouble with it. Sorry for all you Lucario users who don't space well. Learn it, it's the best possible thing to learn. If you learn to space well, you will rarely ever get punished, and you will always connect with the sweetspots. Yea, it's pretty awesome.
And the aurasphere beats out the bair at ANY percentage, so long as it's a fully charged AS. Therefore you have a much, much bigger range than he does. The fsmash does too, but the turtle can go over that if you don't space well. Roll-dodging is not advised either, unless you have good timing and can get behind his turtle quick enough. Otherwise don't try it, 'cause he'll punish you for it. You can always just jump over it and do an aerial like the dair too. Not that hard.
As for the uair beating our dair...I already stated that it does. It's almost as dumb as the turtle, if not worse. It keeps you in the air, and it also replenishes G&W's stale moves while he's doing it. ******** much?? But if you just stay calm and use your options(such as keeping your double jump if you haven't already used it), you should be able to avoid any attack he tries to pull on you from there. That's probably the move that a Lucario player should fear the most in this match-up.
Always remember that you can tech the dthrow. It'll save you countless times. And make you live to higher percentages.
And the bucket? G&W should never even have the bucket out in this match. Seriously. If he pulls out the bucket either A.) you made a mistake or B.) you mindgamed him.
Anyways, those are my main points. G&W WILL beat you if you don't space well enough, and I mean precise spacing. But if you do space well, the match becomes much more even and dependent of skill level. So 60:40 G&W is what I think.