Alrighty, let's try this. Here we go:
MR. GAME & WATCH
G&W is really not as hard a match-up as everyone thinks he is, first off. People are just afraid of him because he's high on the tier list. Never fear Lucario players!
Fundamental Moves: G&W has a lot of options on almost everybody in the game. For one he can just sit there and 'pan' bacon at you. He can simply RAR his bair ALL FREAKIN' DAY. He can use his ridiculously powerful fair to attack you and then use his floatiness to move away before you can counter. He will use wall of pain tactics a lot with his aerials, and it will work. The turtle is probably the most outrageous move in the game, because it has multiple hitboxes, a decent amount of range(nothing too special though), and the final hitbox stays out until the turtle is gone. That's a little rough, eh? Their bucket is extremely deadly, so do not, I repeat DO NOT, use aura sphere unless you are very certain it will hit. Same with FP's flame. If he gets that bucket filled up with even 1 FP flame, it's a OHKO at any percentage for you. If he gets a bunch of BAS you can survive at extremely low percents, but you won't be in that percentile long enough to live through it anyways.
Strategy's/Lucario's moves: There's gonna be a lot in here, so read closely!
Lucario, surprisingly to many, has quite a few options against G&W. Not on the whole, but in specific situations. G&W's turtle can be a problem for a lot of people. I'm gonna tell you right now that your problem with it is most likely you try and shield it and then either grab or attack. That's not gonna work, sorry. Your problem is easily fixable though! It eats your shield like crazy and it has too many hitboxes, plus you have horrible grab range so you won't shield grab him anyways. You need your shield for things like the key and especially the fair. All you need to do to beat the turtle is stay just barely out of its range. It infuriates the G&W's so much, because you're right on the tip of their range but they just can't quite seem to reach you with their favorite move. If you play them like this, they'll use their bair over and over and over again. You can do many things to them when they use the turtle. You can: 1.) Jump over the turtle and dair their face, or 2.) you can space an fsmash and hit them with it, as it does have more priority than the turtle does(Lawlawlawlawlawlawl), or 3.) you can shoot a fully charged AS at them, which also eats through their bair at any percentage(hahahahaha). It has to be fully charged though, it can't be a NFAS(Nearly Full Aura Sphere). That is the most reliable way to get through it because if you're not careful with your spacing and your timing, the turtle will jump over your fsmash. You could also 4.) bait them to get closer to you and do a DT but that's kinda risky, or 5.) bait them and roll behind them as they do the turtle so that you are behind them while they are still in the air and then punish as you see fit. The turtle is a piece of cake to get around if you've ever experimented with it. Just don't fear it. That's all. Don't challenge it and don't shield it.
Now...the other thing that people fear G&W for. The dreaded dthrow to dsmash combo. Too bad it doesn't work on Lucario. EVER. However, Timbers was right when he said they can tech chase an up smash. That very rarely happens though. Usually they just go straight to the dsmash because it's so much faster. If you roll away immediately then they can't hit you with it. If they tech chase you, they better have the timing of a machine if they want to hit you with that up smash, because you can put your shield up and block it if they're not fast enough, which they probably won't be. Also and this is the best thing to do in this situation(other than just don't get grabbed), try to tech the dthrow. Yes it's possible. Please go practice it, because it's very easy to do and amazingly useful. Plus right now most people don't really know that you can tech it, so it'll be a bit of a surprise. If you can get the timing down on that tech, this whole paragraph was pretty much pointless. G&W will suddenly be a WHOLE LOT easier to fight, and they'll hate you for it. But who cares? It makes their dthrow pretty much useless.
As was mentioned earlier, the bucket kills in one hit. So be very smart about using AS. NEVER shoot BAS. That's just a very stupid idea in this match-up and if you think that you can shoot one and have him absorb it, then punish him in his lag, you are so very wrong. That won't ever happen. Always have a fully charged AS ready, so that when you see an opening, you can just fire away. NFAS's aren't quite as useful in this match-up as other matches, simply because of the bucket and they don't eat through the bair either. If G&W is off the ledge, still be very cautious about it, because they'll pull their bucket out their too. Their recovery is very good, so they really don't have to worry about it. The best time to use it is when they are lying on the ground from not teching(for example, from a Force Palm or fthrow) and as they roll up or get up launch it at them. Again be wary of spacing, because if you're too far away they'll just get up and use the bucket. As I mentioned somewhere earlier, you can also use it to eat through their turtle.
And now the uair. G&W's uair is ********. It not only prevents you from landing, but it also replenishes his moves if he has stale moves. That really "BLOWS."(Bad pun alert!) If he keeps you in the air with that move, don't worry about it, just kinda float around and go with the flow. As long as you're that far above him, he can't hit you. Just stay calm because you will probably want to panic, as he is controlling your movement. You're gonna have to come down sometime and when you do be ready for his attack and use your awesome dair or something else. Please don't air dodge because he will punish you for it.
Now, G&W's LOOOOVE their dair. The key is too cool. I did not say too good. It kinda sucks, actually. They just like it because it makes them feel like either Sora or Link. They have an obsession with flying through the air towards the ground at high speeds, or they can just cancel it and use the key but descend at normal speed. That's about the only mindgame it can be good for. If they auto cancel it then you probably won't be able to shield grab them, but you don't wanna be doing that anyways. All you have to do with the key is space yourself away from his general attack. If they auto cancel it, then you can try running in(as long as you're not too far away) with a Force Palm. The fsmash is probably too laggy to hit unless you space really, really well, so maybe ftilt. If you are really good with spacing then try an up tilt as they land. You have so many options, it's laughable. Again, just don't fear it. Lucario's usmash eats through it as well, so remember that. Again, that requires good spacing. If you do try and shield the key because you simply have no other choice or because you really want to, then he'll probably follow it up with a dsmash. Their second favorite combo, so watch out for that. If you shield it then they'll try to grab you out of it and do another dsmash. Never saw that coming.
I think that covers all the moves I wanted to with G&W. Just remember those and you'll do perfectly fine. Now for some more general stuff:
Lucario has, overall, less moves that out range G&W than he does that out range us. Spacing is a very important factor in this match-up for us. Precise spacing will lead to an almost, if I dare say, easy victory. The fsmash is your dear friend in this match-up, because it has a lot of priority and range and will eat through the turtle. The AS is not so recommended, but if you can use it wisely, it's very, very painful to G&W. He has the potential to kill us very early, so steer clear of his fsmash, which has a lot of range, and away from the dsmash. Use the range you have intelligently to keep a good distance away, but still have the upper hand. If you get hit with the turtle, then tap DI rapidly upwards, and you will move outside of the hitboxes. One thing they like to do is use the Match when we are around the ledge. If you are above him, don't try to airdodge through his attack, because you'll die. Don't try rolling up from the ledge past his attack, because you'll die. But don't hang too long because then he'll just use the stupid dtilt. Don't get frying-pan spiked, because that just sucks and is embarrassing. You also have the potential to kill him quickly, because he is very light weight, so abuse it.
Recommended Stages: Now, the part we all know I suck at!
Pictochat: This stage is HUGE. It is massive horizontally, so you'll live uber long here, and it has a relatively high ceiling. And you have the ability to abuse the stage hazards as much as he does. Also, no tilts in the stage.
Luigi's Mansion: This stage is good for Lucario in general. If you have good DI and you don't destroy the house, this can be tech city and help you survive the dsmash, usmash, fair, all his deadly moves.
Overall match-up: I think that this match-up is not as one sided as everyone believes it to be. G&W is powerful, yes, but he is also very light. Many of his evil combos do not work on us. We have more priority than him with the moves that we need the most against him. He is fast. He has a lot of killing moves. We have more priority than the turtle. His dthrow is next to useless if you know what you're doing(coughcoughtechcoughcough).
Edit: With recent discoveries made and edits throughout my post of giganticness, I've decided my opinion on the match-up is somewhere from 45:55 Lucario to 60:40 G&W. That's right, I went ahead and said it: Lucario just might have an advantage on G&W. But that is a very big might. This match-up is very dependent on your spacing, so if someone is not good with spacing they are going to have a very difficult time with this match-up. I really think that 60:40 G&W is pushing it now though.
It's really not that bad or as scary as G&W wants us to think. And I really doubt that G&W knows even half the stuff I do(and now hopefully everyone else!) on the match-up. I bet they think their turtle is still invincible and their dthrow is amazing. *Looks smug* Seriously, half of what G&W's can do to most people has just been taken away; he's really at a loss. Anyways, you decide Jeepy.
Wow...that was a very long post. I hope everyone reads it all: I know a lot about this match-up.
Erich out.
