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Liar Game Mafia | GAME OVER! Who won the 100 gazzillion yen?
- Thread starter #HBC | ZoZo
- Start date
Overswarm
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If I were the SK, I would claim mafia on D3 if there was only one mafia left, much in the manner you have done. This would allow town to say "awesome, we know which one isn't the SK, better odds!". They would then "No lynch" to reduce it to 3 people, and I would continually "no kill" to keep it at 4 people and wait until they lynched one and I'd kill to end the game. Alternatively, they'd lynch someone else and I'd just NKill to win, as I would no longer be a target. Worst case scenario is someone else claims mafia, and then mafia can't win.
We haven't had a mafia counter-claim yet, but it's pretty obvious that mafia can't CC and win. They can still tie staying mafia on their own, and fairly easily too once the SK is gone.
If there is another mafia, CC today. There will be no CCing at Lylo. We'll just lynch the person that CC's as a rule because there's no reason not to do so.
So, claim your name.
Not much time at the moment; weekend.
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For the record, here are the responses I got to this back on D1:
Gheb, J, and Kuzdioh did not answer.
Reading over Raziek's D1 posts, I currently find J and OS to be unlikely buddies. That leaves Asdioh, July and Swords, listed in order of my own personal scumlean for each (Asdioh most scummy, Swords least). J and OS are both still candidates for SK, in my mind.
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Couldn't possibly be any more useless than you asking people what they thought of the question if your own opinion of it is so innocuous.
Overswarm, those questions do still stand. Get back to me when you get a chance, please.
No one should be giving this the time of day. Asdioh is confirmed scum; he is not on our side. If he's the SK (yes, that's still very plausible), then this is him very transparently trying to figure out where the town's collective mind is leaning, and will make it easier for him to decide who he wants to try to lead us toward toDay.
We're lynching Asdioh toDay. If he's mafia, good. If he's the SK, great. Don't let him talk us out of this.
Swords suspicion looks new to me. When and how did this overtake July suspicion? I see you waffling on July, but I haven't seen you say much of anything on Swords.
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The same thing could be said about you as mafia. Either way, you're throwing away your wincon. Really, plenty of things I can hardly fathom have already happened in this game. The fact of the matter is that you've confessed to being scum, but are still playing the game and attempting to "make peace" with us so that we lynch someone other than you. That looks bad. It's one thing to just give up because you're a replacement maf who just lost his only buddy (totally believable), but I would expect you to stop playing in that scenario. You haven't. You're trying to use your claim to get us to look in other directions. You are still motivated by something. It makes more sense for you to have motivation if you are the SK, not the remaining maf. Mafia claiming mafia knows he's committing suicide and throws in the towel. SK claiming mafia is taking a gamble. That you are attempting to avoid the lynch despite outing yourself unprovoked suggests you are attempting to gamble.
Regardless of what you are, we'll have a better idea of what we're working with after your flip. So you have to die. Them's the facts.
Regardless of what you are, we'll have a better idea of what we're working with after your flip. So you have to die. Them's the facts.
I still need to see July's pick for SK, now that I've claimed.
Just because you "know" who one scum is doesn't mean you shouldn't look for the other, in an open setup like this. It really would be antitown to waste time by not scumhunting when we have so much.
Overswarm
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Asdioh, you're going to receive a contract stating that your vote will be controlled by town. When someone says "I want Asdioh to vote for (name of player)" in bold, you'll be forced to vote for them in your next post. If you do not, you get a MOD vote.
Would you accept this?
Would you accept this?
I'll probably accept this, but wait until later tonight, after July responds ok? I'll also claim.
@July: I'll answer your questions of why I liked #138 and #142 after you tell me your SK pick.
Overswarm
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Numbers post. I'll read later, promise.
Anti-town:
2. Asdioh
Potentially Pro-town:
3. Sworddancer.
4. Circus
5. J
6. July
7. Overswarm
If we lynch Asdioh, and one of us dies (say sworddancer for numbers sake), our day tomorrow would look like this:
Potential Town:
4. Circus
5. J
6. July
7. Overswarm
This would normally result in a No Lynch scenario but it's painfully obvious and already stated that simply not killing is the SK's best move. So we'd have a 1/4 chance.
However, we can choose two people to be killed on this day.
By sending out contracts stating that "should a two man lylo occur, you will vote for yourself" or, more strategically sound, that previous contract and the possibility of them getting a mod vote, and forcing them to accept in addition to contracts given to other players forcing them to vote for that person (and making sure no other contracts prevent this) should they be alive that day, our day could look like this:
Potential Town:
4. Circus
5. J
6. July
7. Overswarm
We decide to lynch circus and decide that we want to lynch J the following Day and, should J die, we want to lynch July.
Prior to lynching Circus, we give a contract to J and July stating that should a two man lylo occur, they will be given a mod vote in some fashion. SK says "haha, I am July, I will simply kill Overswarm and result in a No lynch!" and then it becomes a quick draw.
Alternatively, J's contract would state "if in a two man lylo with july or overswarm, you will vote for yourself" while July's contract would state "if in a two man lylo with overswarm". This would prevent SK shenanigans. If the SK was J, and he killed July, I'd be able to hammer, and if he killed me, July would be able to hammer. If July was the SK in this scenario, she'd win because we simply picked the wrong person (J).
So by end game, town has only two people that they don't get to choose to lynch that could be the SK: one final townie and the SK. The rest are lynched or killed by the SK.
Our odds would literally be 50/50, as we would be killing two people out of four. Not too bad of odds given that we get to make an educated decision about it.
What if we didn't kill Asdioh, but knew he needed to die?
Anti-town:
2. Asdioh
Potentially Pro-town:
3. Sworddancer.
4. Circus
5. J
6. July
7. Overswarm
Should Asdioh actually be the SK, he'd be confirmed as such if he killed a mafia member by accident. That's a 1 in 5 chance of accidentally killing himself by killing mafia.
From the bottom up this time! We lynch me today and July is Nkilled. Both town. We look like this the next day:
Anti-town:
2. Asdioh
Potentially Pro-town:
3. Sworddancer.
4. Circus
5. J
Four people left again with one that needs to die.
We do the contract shiz again to say we want Asdioh to kill himself in a two man lylo by forcing him to have modvotes (thus the SK won't kill him), then we lynch J. We have another contract with Circus stating that, should he be in a two man lylo with Sworddancer, he'd vote himself in his opening post or receive a MOD vote.
Again comes down to a 50/50 chance, this time between Circus/Sworddancer.
In both scenarios, town has a 50% chance of winning assuming consistent failure all the way up to that point. We can determine the final two players of the game and who we want to die.
This really shouldn't be too difficult.
Asdioh will agree to any and all contracts we propose and refine today. Should he not do so, we simply kill him today. Should anyone else decide not to go along with the contracts, we kill them too; our mathematical odds are lower, but our implied odds shoot through the roof since not accepting the contract doesn't help town in any way.*
*The thought of "I know I'M town, so why would I do that?!" is what lets the SK not accept contracts and giving himself a 33% or 25% chance of failure, down from 50%, on sheer odds alone. So while it is logical to assume that since you know you are town you should avoid death, this is actually far worse for town because your individual presence does not improve town's chances of winning and in fact cuts our chances in half. So accept contracts.
It is with this information in mind that I believe Asdioh should not die today unless he does not agree to our plans. Should he not agree to our plans, we must lynch him on the possibility of him being the SK. As Asdioh has already publicly claimed mafia and believes he has lost already there should be no issue of him accepting the contracts. If he is the Serial Killer, accepting the contracts is the only chance he has of winning... and it's a coin flip. Plus, leaving him alive as the SK means there is a 25% chance he'll kill mafia by accident (after a 20% chance we have), thus winning us the game right there. If he is the SK, he has trapped himself into an unfavorable scenario. If he is mafia, he has forfeited the game in a far more convenient manner than Gheb has.
Asdioh, when you claim I'd also like you to paraphase everything you possibly can from your quick topic with Raziek and do so publicly. I know Raziek and am sure he had some theories on who the SK was, or at least what townies he felt you should keep around or kill. This information is coming from a reliable, if anti-town, source, and thus should be trustworthy. This should also give us an idea how likely it is that you are mafia.
That leaves us with who we have left to get rid of today, assuming Asdioh accepts.
Town list:
3. Sworddancer.
4. Circus
5. J
6. July
7. Overswarm
To be frank, there is no way to discern who is the Serial Killer from play alone. We can only discern who he is based off of who he kills and why. There is absolutely no "clear" from being the SK, this includes myself, save for how well people believe someone's intentions. If the SK knew that J wanted July lynched no matter what, J would more than likely be Night Killed.
Unfortunately this is not necessarily true with Raziek, who played a very light role, as did Asdioh.
This does, however, make our job easier.
The Serial Killer is currently actively avoiding connections. I assume that rather than finding a connection to Raziek and his killer, we will actually find a notable absence of connection.
The Serial Killer is in this game, and isn't stupid. He, or she, will likely become far more bold for this Night phase and kill regardless of connection to his own person, unless he believes to have been "found out".
Should the SK be Sworddancer and J spends all of today saying "we need to lynch SWORDDANCER, he's the SK I know it", it is likely that J will die because we cannot logically pin it on Sworddancer. After all, it is in the SK's best interests to have a mislynch and that orchestrates it beautifully. It is unreadable. It's merely whether the SK believes an immediate lynch will get him killed or not.
What is readable is who the SK considers town.
It is for this reason I believe it is likely I will die tonight unless there is a change in town opinion. All other players in this game have at least one person gunning for them and I am currently a tentative golden boy. If someone like me is left around who every begrudgingly accepts as "town enough to not be lynched today", that's a full slot closer to lynching the SK. Should someone be in line for this spot tomorrow, they will die. Because of this, we can help determine who the SK will kill and maybe even guide him. Keep that in mind when you post your "town reads".
Should I die, follow the plan I listed up above to at minimum give yourself a 50% chance. I believe this town can easily catch the Serial Killer, but truth be told we only get to choose one person to kill before a two-man lylo since Asdioh has already placed himself on the chopping block for us.
Our odds, assuming Asdioh is truthful and is mafia, not the SK, and killing people from the top down:
Day 2: 20% chance
Anti-town:
2. Asdioh
Potentially Pro-town:
3. Sworddancer.
4. Circus
5. J
6. July
7. Overswarm
Day 3: 0% chance
Anti-town:
2. Asdioh
5. J
6. July
7. Overswarm
Day 4: 50% chance
6. July
7. Overswarm
Should Asdioh be a Serial Killer, we have a 0% today and 100% chance tomorrow, leaving us with just one mafia and a whole slew of information to go over.
-Connections with Raziek
-Absence of connections with Raziek
-voting patterns involving Raziek
-Reactions to Asdioh's claim
-more standard mafia-esque tells, such as distancing, undue pressure, etc., etc.
We are in a favorable position, but we do have the disadvantage of going into Lylo with who the SK deems to be least likely to kill him. Keep this in mind.
Given that I am confident I won't be around tomorrow, I'd like the contracts to be set tonight.
Should I be around tomorrow, I should be able to discern who the Serial Killer is.
I believe I have solidified my spot as town for today, at least. I have changed the odds to double what we could normally accomplish; as a Serial Killer I would have 100% odds should this plan come to fruition if I am not considered a lynch but am not NKilled. So, by all means keep an eye on me and question me tomorrow.
But for today I think we should have a quick consensus on what town thinks of my above plan.
Gauge everyone's reactions accordingly.
It was a mistake to not kill me yesterday, SK. Your best possible outcome is a coin flip... even with town not getting a lynch choice yesterday because of Gheb's foolishness.
Anti-town:
2. Asdioh
Potentially Pro-town:
3. Sworddancer.
4. Circus
5. J
6. July
7. Overswarm
If we lynch Asdioh, and one of us dies (say sworddancer for numbers sake), our day tomorrow would look like this:
Potential Town:
4. Circus
5. J
6. July
7. Overswarm
This would normally result in a No Lynch scenario but it's painfully obvious and already stated that simply not killing is the SK's best move. So we'd have a 1/4 chance.
However, we can choose two people to be killed on this day.
By sending out contracts stating that "should a two man lylo occur, you will vote for yourself" or, more strategically sound, that previous contract and the possibility of them getting a mod vote, and forcing them to accept in addition to contracts given to other players forcing them to vote for that person (and making sure no other contracts prevent this) should they be alive that day, our day could look like this:
Potential Town:
4. Circus
5. J
6. July
7. Overswarm
We decide to lynch circus and decide that we want to lynch J the following Day and, should J die, we want to lynch July.
Prior to lynching Circus, we give a contract to J and July stating that should a two man lylo occur, they will be given a mod vote in some fashion. SK says "haha, I am July, I will simply kill Overswarm and result in a No lynch!" and then it becomes a quick draw.
Alternatively, J's contract would state "if in a two man lylo with july or overswarm, you will vote for yourself" while July's contract would state "if in a two man lylo with overswarm". This would prevent SK shenanigans. If the SK was J, and he killed July, I'd be able to hammer, and if he killed me, July would be able to hammer. If July was the SK in this scenario, she'd win because we simply picked the wrong person (J).
So by end game, town has only two people that they don't get to choose to lynch that could be the SK: one final townie and the SK. The rest are lynched or killed by the SK.
Our odds would literally be 50/50, as we would be killing two people out of four. Not too bad of odds given that we get to make an educated decision about it.
What if we didn't kill Asdioh, but knew he needed to die?
Anti-town:
2. Asdioh
Potentially Pro-town:
3. Sworddancer.
4. Circus
5. J
6. July
7. Overswarm
Should Asdioh actually be the SK, he'd be confirmed as such if he killed a mafia member by accident. That's a 1 in 5 chance of accidentally killing himself by killing mafia.
From the bottom up this time! We lynch me today and July is Nkilled. Both town. We look like this the next day:
Anti-town:
2. Asdioh
Potentially Pro-town:
3. Sworddancer.
4. Circus
5. J
Four people left again with one that needs to die.
We do the contract shiz again to say we want Asdioh to kill himself in a two man lylo by forcing him to have modvotes (thus the SK won't kill him), then we lynch J. We have another contract with Circus stating that, should he be in a two man lylo with Sworddancer, he'd vote himself in his opening post or receive a MOD vote.
Again comes down to a 50/50 chance, this time between Circus/Sworddancer.
In both scenarios, town has a 50% chance of winning assuming consistent failure all the way up to that point. We can determine the final two players of the game and who we want to die.
This really shouldn't be too difficult.
Asdioh will agree to any and all contracts we propose and refine today. Should he not do so, we simply kill him today. Should anyone else decide not to go along with the contracts, we kill them too; our mathematical odds are lower, but our implied odds shoot through the roof since not accepting the contract doesn't help town in any way.*
*The thought of "I know I'M town, so why would I do that?!" is what lets the SK not accept contracts and giving himself a 33% or 25% chance of failure, down from 50%, on sheer odds alone. So while it is logical to assume that since you know you are town you should avoid death, this is actually far worse for town because your individual presence does not improve town's chances of winning and in fact cuts our chances in half. So accept contracts.
It is with this information in mind that I believe Asdioh should not die today unless he does not agree to our plans. Should he not agree to our plans, we must lynch him on the possibility of him being the SK. As Asdioh has already publicly claimed mafia and believes he has lost already there should be no issue of him accepting the contracts. If he is the Serial Killer, accepting the contracts is the only chance he has of winning... and it's a coin flip. Plus, leaving him alive as the SK means there is a 25% chance he'll kill mafia by accident (after a 20% chance we have), thus winning us the game right there. If he is the SK, he has trapped himself into an unfavorable scenario. If he is mafia, he has forfeited the game in a far more convenient manner than Gheb has.
Asdioh, when you claim I'd also like you to paraphase everything you possibly can from your quick topic with Raziek and do so publicly. I know Raziek and am sure he had some theories on who the SK was, or at least what townies he felt you should keep around or kill. This information is coming from a reliable, if anti-town, source, and thus should be trustworthy. This should also give us an idea how likely it is that you are mafia.
That leaves us with who we have left to get rid of today, assuming Asdioh accepts.
Town list:
3. Sworddancer.
4. Circus
5. J
6. July
7. Overswarm
To be frank, there is no way to discern who is the Serial Killer from play alone. We can only discern who he is based off of who he kills and why. There is absolutely no "clear" from being the SK, this includes myself, save for how well people believe someone's intentions. If the SK knew that J wanted July lynched no matter what, J would more than likely be Night Killed.
Unfortunately this is not necessarily true with Raziek, who played a very light role, as did Asdioh.
This does, however, make our job easier.
The Serial Killer is currently actively avoiding connections. I assume that rather than finding a connection to Raziek and his killer, we will actually find a notable absence of connection.
The Serial Killer is in this game, and isn't stupid. He, or she, will likely become far more bold for this Night phase and kill regardless of connection to his own person, unless he believes to have been "found out".
Should the SK be Sworddancer and J spends all of today saying "we need to lynch SWORDDANCER, he's the SK I know it", it is likely that J will die because we cannot logically pin it on Sworddancer. After all, it is in the SK's best interests to have a mislynch and that orchestrates it beautifully. It is unreadable. It's merely whether the SK believes an immediate lynch will get him killed or not.
What is readable is who the SK considers town.
It is for this reason I believe it is likely I will die tonight unless there is a change in town opinion. All other players in this game have at least one person gunning for them and I am currently a tentative golden boy. If someone like me is left around who every begrudgingly accepts as "town enough to not be lynched today", that's a full slot closer to lynching the SK. Should someone be in line for this spot tomorrow, they will die. Because of this, we can help determine who the SK will kill and maybe even guide him. Keep that in mind when you post your "town reads".
Should I die, follow the plan I listed up above to at minimum give yourself a 50% chance. I believe this town can easily catch the Serial Killer, but truth be told we only get to choose one person to kill before a two-man lylo since Asdioh has already placed himself on the chopping block for us.
Our odds, assuming Asdioh is truthful and is mafia, not the SK, and killing people from the top down:
Day 2: 20% chance
Anti-town:
2. Asdioh
Potentially Pro-town:
3. Sworddancer.
4. Circus
5. J
6. July
7. Overswarm
Day 3: 0% chance
Anti-town:
2. Asdioh
5. J
6. July
7. Overswarm
Day 4: 50% chance
6. July
7. Overswarm
Should Asdioh be a Serial Killer, we have a 0% today and 100% chance tomorrow, leaving us with just one mafia and a whole slew of information to go over.
-Connections with Raziek
-Absence of connections with Raziek
-voting patterns involving Raziek
-Reactions to Asdioh's claim
-more standard mafia-esque tells, such as distancing, undue pressure, etc., etc.
We are in a favorable position, but we do have the disadvantage of going into Lylo with who the SK deems to be least likely to kill him. Keep this in mind.
Given that I am confident I won't be around tomorrow, I'd like the contracts to be set tonight.
Should I be around tomorrow, I should be able to discern who the Serial Killer is.
I believe I have solidified my spot as town for today, at least. I have changed the odds to double what we could normally accomplish; as a Serial Killer I would have 100% odds should this plan come to fruition if I am not considered a lynch but am not NKilled. So, by all means keep an eye on me and question me tomorrow.
But for today I think we should have a quick consensus on what town thinks of my above plan.
Gauge everyone's reactions accordingly.
It was a mistake to not kill me yesterday, SK. Your best possible outcome is a coin flip... even with town not getting a lynch choice yesterday because of Gheb's foolishness.
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Nowhere did I say that I was okay with wasting the Day by not scumhunting. Assuming no one does anything stupid to end the Day early again, we've got plenty of time for that. I'm simply making the point that we will be lynching you at the end of this Day unless we have substantially good reasoning to lynch someone else. Like, someone else claiming Serial Killer kind of reasoning.
Also, what's with the quotation marks? We do know you're scum. If you're not scum, then you and Gheb threw this game away for us.
I'll get to reading OS' monster tomorrow since I have the day off. Giving it a quick skim, it looks like there's a lot of gambling involved, which I'm not cool with. Especially with Overswarm leading it. Will give it a fair thrice-over later.
Overswarm
is laughing at you
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"Overswarm, general thoughts on Raziek's death? Did you expect him to die/flip that alignment? Feel free to answer questions I'm not asking."
It's actually one of the most standard indie tells. I used that same tell to catch two indies in Fire Emblem as mafia. "First to mention and first to react leaves an indie's wincon intact" is my little jingle. It is generally done out of a feeling of "I'm going to get caught" and is most prevalent in children or in situations where someone else is in a clear position to punish you (which children are always in). Since you know something and you know that being caught knowing that something is bad, you do whatever you can to get people looking in the other direction and the first thing out of your mouth is often incriminating.
You often have "first to react" in obvious situations. If you went into the bathroom and started pissing on the walls, then left, you wouldn't then walk into the bathroom and say "guys, check this out this is gross" because you'd feel that would be incriminating. Instead, you'd do your best to move as far away from it as possible and wait for someone else to discover it, and then you'd recoil heavily like saying "That's the grossing thing ever", making it apparent to everyone that it wasn't you without saying "wasn't me".
You often have "first to mention" in situations where one needs to control space and flow. This is generally what happens in mafia. Bringing up Raziek's death is obviously a prime motive for toDay, and whoever brings it up first controls the flow if we let them.
Still not sure on Circus indie though, because he is suspicious of me. There's no reason for the indie to try to swing a lynch towards me. It's fighting uphill when it would be far easier to just manipulate the direction towards someone else.
So I have two tells noted on Circus, both pulling in opposite directions. My gut normally says "lynch on indie tell", but this is a different game than normal.
This will take some thought.
ok **** it, July hasn't been on in two days, and I don't have any more time to waste. I wanted to do this within about 24 hours of my claim, but I needed to get reactions from everybody first.
Prepare for rambling btw, my thoughts aren't completely organized.
@July:
what I liked about 138 was the suspicion on J and the attention on Raziek. I've already said I had been getting bad vibes about J, and Raziek I was paying little attention to because he was a nonpresence. I also had been liking Circus because it was evident he was paying attention to detail and apparently scumhunting.
I liked 142 again because of J suspicion and trying to not give OS a clear for nulls. Reminded me of how OS played in Touhou mafia and kind of how scumGheb played in Dissidia, by being "helpful" about general mafia theory type stuff, but not actually scumhunting.
I came into D2 with relative townreads on Swords and Circus. Nullish on July. I was looking for the SK obviously, and my suspicions were mostly on J as I said D1, and OS. Part of the reason I felt awkward about OS is the fact that he has been placing a lot of emphasis on the "fact" that he is not the SK. I will have to go through and get quotes for this later.
Why did I claim mafia? It was an easy way to get reactions and to get myself more interested in the game. Will I die for it, even after revealing it was a gambit? Possibly, but I don't really care as long as we can pin the SK.
I still can't comprehend how I could be the SK. If you've played with me before, you should know that I am adept at avoiding lynches. As a SK, all I would be afraid of are lynches, since I obviously couldn't die during the Night. What I did is an incredibly risky move for a SK.
As a townie, I could get lynched, but we already have a mafia down and it could help pinpoint the remaining two scum. I'm also not afraid of night kills.
As mafia, I could obviously have been giving up like you all believed, but this is me we're talking about and I don't do that. Had you all convinced though, apparently. Which could make this messier than I intended.
So what kind of reactions was I looking for?
First off, the mafia would know immediately that it was a gambit. They would most likely be the most wishy-washy about lynching me.
The SK would jump at the opportunity to lynch somebody that wasn't him or her.
Town would see no reason to disbelieve me, and they would have to prioritize lynching me against lynching the more dangerous SK. They would be willing to discuss this and think about alternate routes, as well as continue scumhunting.
So who fits what?
The first thing I got from this is that Swords is 100% town in my eyes. He took it calmly, and was willing to consider options. That, combined with my previous townread on him, means I will not be lynching him.
The second thing I got is that even though I liked Circus previously, his reaction to my 'claim' was awful.
I'll need more time to look into J's and OS' reactions. Based on my impressions from them, I'd say I wouldn't lynch J toDay, and OS may be a possibility but I also want to talk to J and Swords more about Circus suspicion. Then there's July, who didn't get a chance to react and who I really don't know how to read so I don't really care
Prepare for rambling btw, my thoughts aren't completely organized.
@July:
what I liked about 138 was the suspicion on J and the attention on Raziek. I've already said I had been getting bad vibes about J, and Raziek I was paying little attention to because he was a nonpresence. I also had been liking Circus because it was evident he was paying attention to detail and apparently scumhunting.
I liked 142 again because of J suspicion and trying to not give OS a clear for nulls. Reminded me of how OS played in Touhou mafia and kind of how scumGheb played in Dissidia, by being "helpful" about general mafia theory type stuff, but not actually scumhunting.
I am Akagi Kouta, Town Loyal Teammate. I ignored OS' requests for my claim because I don't have a mafia claim.
I came into D2 with relative townreads on Swords and Circus. Nullish on July. I was looking for the SK obviously, and my suspicions were mostly on J as I said D1, and OS. Part of the reason I felt awkward about OS is the fact that he has been placing a lot of emphasis on the "fact" that he is not the SK. I will have to go through and get quotes for this later.
Why did I claim mafia? It was an easy way to get reactions and to get myself more interested in the game. Will I die for it, even after revealing it was a gambit? Possibly, but I don't really care as long as we can pin the SK.
I still can't comprehend how I could be the SK. If you've played with me before, you should know that I am adept at avoiding lynches. As a SK, all I would be afraid of are lynches, since I obviously couldn't die during the Night. What I did is an incredibly risky move for a SK.
As a townie, I could get lynched, but we already have a mafia down and it could help pinpoint the remaining two scum. I'm also not afraid of night kills.
As mafia, I could obviously have been giving up like you all believed, but this is me we're talking about and I don't do that. Had you all convinced though, apparently. Which could make this messier than I intended.
So what kind of reactions was I looking for?
First off, the mafia would know immediately that it was a gambit. They would most likely be the most wishy-washy about lynching me.
The SK would jump at the opportunity to lynch somebody that wasn't him or her.
Town would see no reason to disbelieve me, and they would have to prioritize lynching me against lynching the more dangerous SK. They would be willing to discuss this and think about alternate routes, as well as continue scumhunting.
So who fits what?
The first thing I got from this is that Swords is 100% town in my eyes. He took it calmly, and was willing to consider options. That, combined with my previous townread on him, means I will not be lynching him.
The second thing I got is that even though I liked Circus previously, his reaction to my 'claim' was awful.
He continues to be perceptive. Does he perhaps know too much? His attention to detail that I noticed before might in fact just be him looking for reasons to lynch anybody. He also has not looked elsewhere after seeing my claim post.
I'll need more time to look into J's and OS' reactions. Based on my impressions from them, I'd say I wouldn't lynch J toDay, and OS may be a possibility but I also want to talk to J and Swords more about Circus suspicion. Then there's July, who didn't get a chance to react and who I really don't know how to read so I don't really care
If the rest of you are still up for this, so am I. I can easily understand if you don't trust me after I took longer than I intended and pulled such a risky move.
Overswarm
is laughing at you
- Joined
- May 4, 2005
- Messages
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I hope you realize you're probably still going to die. Regardless, you don't get to vote on your own.
Contracts will be sent that don't allow you to vote unless you are given permission to vote, I'm thinking.
Circus' reaction is bad, yes. But it's also logical. There were exactly 0 people that didn't want you dead; no one would ever be "wishy washy", especially not mafia who can lynch absolutely anyone and be fine with it.
This will take some consideration.
Contracts will be sent that don't allow you to vote unless you are given permission to vote, I'm thinking.
Circus' reaction is bad, yes. But it's also logical. There were exactly 0 people that didn't want you dead; no one would ever be "wishy washy", especially not mafia who can lynch absolutely anyone and be fine with it.
This will take some consideration.
It's a risk I was willing to take. I didn't exactly want to be in a mafia game in the first place, but I took this opportunity to get my own reads, and now that you guys know what I did, you'll be able to get yours off it as well. Plus, with 1 mafia already dead, town's not in a too bad position.
Overswarm
is laughing at you
- Joined
- May 4, 2005
- Messages
- 21,181
Are you a ****ing idiot?
We have one lynch left to choose because you just told town "hey I'm mafia", then saw a contract plan that prevented your slot from winning as mafia or SK, then said "lol I'm not mafia".
That's all we've got. One lynch, today, and then the only reason we get to choose more than one is because of contract shenanigans that allow a two person lylo to not automatically No Lynch.
The final lynch between two people is decided by the SK unless we get it right. There's no "last minute revelations".
Anti-town:
2. Asdioh
Potentially Pro-town:
3. Sworddancer.
4. Circus
5. J
6. July
7. Overswarm
There are 6 of us. 4 tomorrow. 2 the next day.
This was ****ing stupid, Asdioh.
Asdioh, this is like a Soupa gambit....*le sigh*
I really don't know what to say because I am tired from working all day but I'll think of something to say hopefully soon.
One thing though, Circus' 248 makes me cringe with the scummy heeby jeebies.
Asdioh will probably still have to go due to this gambit but I don't know yet. Maybe I can see the little townie in Asdioh trying this stunt but it is just so "......" I don't really want to think about it.
I really don't know what to say because I am tired from working all day but I'll think of something to say hopefully soon.
One thing though, Circus' 248 makes me cringe with the scummy heeby jeebies.
Asdioh will probably still have to go due to this gambit but I don't know yet. Maybe I can see the little townie in Asdioh trying this stunt but it is just so "......" I don't really want to think about it.
#HBC | Dancer
The nicest of the damned.
I was in the middle of doing an ISO of everyone to see things from the sk PoV. Still going to try to do it, though.
@OS: Do you believe Asdioh's crumb? Honestly I'm kinda sketchy about it, so what say you?
@OS: Do you believe Asdioh's crumb? Honestly I'm kinda sketchy about it, so what say you?
July
Smash Apprentice
When I was reading I kept wondering why you were soooo insistent on me specifically posting, now it makes sense.
I'll go back and address everything point by point, but I don't share OS' opinion that what you did was terribly stupid. It reminds me A LOT of something Cellowould do has done before more than a Soup gambit (as J implied).
Bleh, going to go back and address things point by point, will be easiest.
I'll go back and address everything point by point, but I don't share OS' opinion that what you did was terribly stupid. It reminds me A LOT of something Cello
Bleh, going to go back and address things point by point, will be easiest.
- Joined
- Jul 9, 2007
- Messages
- 5,164
So much rage. Figures that J and July would show up right after Asdioh gives away the gambit after both being MIA for more than 2 days.
My 244 stands then. Thinking one of Asdioh or July for the last maf, possibly leaning more toward July than Asdioh now. Could still be Swords, but Swords definitely isn't the SK so I'm less worried about him. J's definitely not Raziek's buddy, but I still hate the way he's playing. Despite my paranoia, I think I'm going to have to trust Overswarm because he's one of the only ones not driving me crazy this game.
Probably going to want July or J dead toDay. Asdioh's gambit makes my head spin, but I can believe his intent was true. Maybe this did work out for us.
July
Smash Apprentice
I got so excited when I first read this, thought I really did catch mafia ;-; That said, this didn't look like a gambit at first, and I would have been in J and Circus' camp that you would be the lynch for toDay (I'll elaborate on that later).Boo, all it took was one night phase and I've lost my motivation to win. July's right, I'm mafia. I don't see a point in trying when I don't have a night kill and my partner's already dead, and I had to replace in late so I didn't get to set my usual pace.
That said, the SK is a much bigger threat, and if you guys let me live for now, I can help you find him. If you don't trust me to live past toDay, you could always use contracts to cripple me if you want. What say you?
The last part seems like a hint towards what you were doing and your interactions following this, including your incessant push for me to post, make it easier for me to believe you are town and the mafia thing was a risky gambit.
First two thoughts when I read this, 1) this is wishy-washy, but 2) it also seems genuine. J was the first to respond and I know he's seen risky gambits, and maybe even similar gambits, from scum and town so his decision to think it over sets well with me.
I don't agree with this, I like J's reasoning in his #232 that lynching Asdioh toDay if he really was mafia would mean more info and less risky odds, thus a more reasonable approach. This definitely doesn't strike me as sk reaction. I'm not quite sure how actual mafia would react, so right now just going to focus on this as a sign that Swords is not the sk.
Trying to get information out of Raz's death didn't seem like a good use of time to me. It didn't seem like he really had something to gain from OS' answer to the questions, because the answers themselves are wifom so I don't see where he could be going with it.
Not Swords. Not you. I have a feeling that J is town in general.
So Circus or OS, in no distinct order yet.
This whole passage feels off to me. The bolded passage doesn't make sense; it seems like before Asdioh claimed it was a gambit, you had Asdioh down to sk or mafia. Asking mafia to CC is literally asking them to commit suicide and give town the game then-CCing player would be mafia, assumption is that this makes Asdioh sk so that means we would just lynch Asdioh, lynch CCer and win the game. I really have no idea what your intentions were here but there is no way you actually expected mafia to counter-claim here.
The first part of this (the big paragraph) is true and makes a lot of sense now if Asdioh is town, and much less if Asdioh is actually mafia or sk.The same thing could be said about you as mafia. Either way, you're throwing away your wincon. Really, plenty of things I can hardly fathom have already happened in this game. The fact of the matter is that you've confessed to being scum, but are still playing the game and attempting to "make peace" with us so that we lynch someone other than you. That looks bad. It's one thing to just give up because you're a replacement maf who just lost his only buddy (totally believable), but I would expect you to stop playing in that scenario. You haven't. You're trying to use your claim to get us to look in other directions. You are still motivated by something. It makes more sense for you to have motivation if you are the SK, not the remaining maf. Mafia claiming mafia knows he's committing suicide and throws in the towel. SK claiming mafia is taking a gamble. That you are attempting to avoid the lynch despite outing yourself unprovoked suggests you are attempting to gamble.
Regardless of what you are, we'll have a better idea of what we're working with after your flip. So you have to die. Them's the facts.
Last line seems a little...stabby...in retrospect but at the time I honestly would have agreed with him, your lynch would have been necessary.
July
Smash Apprentice
How long would you intend for this contract with Asdioh to last?
It seems to me like it would need refining, it seems like this could cause chaos. All you need is for two people to have opposing opinions on the lynch to create a war of "I want Asdioh to vote for (name of player)" commands coming in rapid secession.
@OS's huge post: I really couldn't follow your vision for the future of the rest of the game, and as it doesn't take into consideration crazy things like the gambit that happened toDay I'm going to just pass on the statistics and such and say that I think that lynching Asdioh toDay (which I think was your first scenario outlined) would have been the best option if his claim was sincere.
Sorry, life comes first.
OS, why would inactivity/low activity (I didn't actually get prodded) result in my death?
Circus, why are you practically leaving every door open besides OS? You say that everyone but OS is on the table for you in terms of a lynch.
Where did the July dislike come out of because this is the first you are bringing up July dislike to my memory. The most dislike I have heard from you is dislike of me and that's it.
Why isn't Swords the SK in your eyes? It feels like you are just going along with popular opinion.
Certainly. =D
Basically what I dislike the most about the paragraph is that you are trying to shut off every avenue for Asdioh in that post and just saying "Well you could still be the SK if you aren't mafia so still you have to go." I saw the opposite of what July seemed to have saw.
Just a random note, but you are the last player I expected to pull the Cello card from this group of people (from the original playerlist) o_O".
Huh, I never really thought of it as a Cello gambit but yeah iirc, he has pulled this sort of thing before. Still didn't like it then since they always ended up just becoming a mess. xD So yeah to be fair, it's not just a soupa gambit. Just a really wonky gambit it seems.
I'm debating on using our deadline extension when we still have 4 days in the day phase. Plus, probably better using that for later in the game because I feel we probably will need it then moreso than like toDay.
However, with Asdioh's claim/fake claim, I can understand of using more time to sift through things.
However, with Asdioh's claim/fake claim, I can understand of using more time to sift through things.
@Circus: As well as explaining your SwordsScum suspicion on top of the July suspicion explanation, could you please explain your scum-read on me? I don't really remember it besides the sole fact that I find you scum and therefore your vote (for me) translates more into OMGUS due to you disliking the fact I'm pushing you. So why do you have me as a scum-read?
Also, what in the world makes you trust OS the most? I mean, sure I, myself, have him as town-lean but nothing to make me say that he is the only one in town where my head is like "Yes, he cool broskii."
Also, what in the world makes you trust OS the most? I mean, sure I, myself, have him as town-lean but nothing to make me say that he is the only one in town where my head is like "Yes, he cool broskii."
The first quote just makes me chuckle a tad. =3c
*ahem*
Back to your question because I seem to have glazed over it at first. July suspicion was more of a thought process where I wanted to put pressure on July. She was the only person D1 (from the original playerlist that wasn't replaced in) that didn't get pressured who is alive toDay. You/Myself/OS all got pressured yesterDay to a good amount.
After the pressure, I did say I felt more comfortable with July. You say I was "waffling" on July where I made it kind of clear that I was okay with her for now and even unvoted her. My Swords suspicion is merely PoE. You are the person I am willing to let go the most followed by Swords>July/OS.
Asdioh needs to get thrown back in there but put him above=near equal to Swords at the moment.
July
Smash Apprentice
OS's #256 makes sense, I considered that Circus' question wasn't for the purpose of gathering information, and this theory works with that concept by saying that he was trying to control the flow of the game. Not something I'm going to put much weight on, but a bit helpful nonetheless.
@Asdioh's large reveal post: I believe that his claim was gambit, and it fits with his behavior of trying to get everyone to react, refusing to name claim, and acting with motivation still despite apparently "giving up" with the death of his partner.
I also agree with his points on Circus. Even though I can see reasons why lynching Asdioh would have been a good policy for toDay, I agree with J's reasons over Circus', the reason being that while J's is using much more reason and taking it through possible outcomes without overwhelming amounts of information, Circus' just feels a bit stabby, like I said. I can see how he might have been frustrated townie yesterDay, I've seen some pro-town intent but I also see a lot of ambivalence towards who dies and that makes me uncomfortable.
@Circus' #271: Where do your suspicions of me as mafia come from? I honestly don't remember you ever stating suspicions of me before just now.
@J: Yes.
Right now my thoughts:
Asdioh= not sk, not mafia= town
J= not mafia, not likely sk, seems genuine in whole Asdioh thing though= town read
Swords= not sk, maybe mafia= not priority, leaning more town than scum
OS= possible sk, possible mafia, honestly a bit of an enigma to me= suspicious
Circus= possible sk, possible mafia, very likely he is one or the other based on reaction to Asdioh= leaning scum
@Asdioh's large reveal post: I believe that his claim was gambit, and it fits with his behavior of trying to get everyone to react, refusing to name claim, and acting with motivation still despite apparently "giving up" with the death of his partner.
I also agree with his points on Circus. Even though I can see reasons why lynching Asdioh would have been a good policy for toDay, I agree with J's reasons over Circus', the reason being that while J's is using much more reason and taking it through possible outcomes without overwhelming amounts of information, Circus' just feels a bit stabby, like I said. I can see how he might have been frustrated townie yesterDay, I've seen some pro-town intent but I also see a lot of ambivalence towards who dies and that makes me uncomfortable.
@Circus' #271: Where do your suspicions of me as mafia come from? I honestly don't remember you ever stating suspicions of me before just now.
@J: Yes.
Right now my thoughts:
Asdioh= not sk, not mafia= town
J= not mafia, not likely sk, seems genuine in whole Asdioh thing though= town read
Swords= not sk, maybe mafia= not priority, leaning more town than scum
OS= possible sk, possible mafia, honestly a bit of an enigma to me= suspicious
Circus= possible sk, possible mafia, very likely he is one or the other based on reaction to Asdioh= leaning scum