Okay, here's the deal:
1: Iceblock forces approach- This helps a lot in the MU. When you have both climbers, one will eat AS, the other will get lucario. Simple enough. The ability of this to work beyond forcing an approach is limited though if lucario takes the fight to the air.
2: Spaced dair is virtually unpunishable- This is normally a hard issue against a char with good grab range like D3, but ICs are terrible dealing with dair, it separates them in opposite directions in knockback, it outranges and outspeeds uair/utilt, and when on a platformed stage, is going to be a bugger to deal with, since it has enough range to connect from an immediate jump-> dair. Shield pressure of this move against ICs and the double hitbox of this move is crazy safe.
3: Ground moves: Good lucarios know that in this MU, they'll have to use them wisely. If fsmash somehow gets PS'd by both climbers without being properly spaced/strutterstepped, it's the lucario's fault completely. This move is pretty safe on block vs. ICs + has IASA frames, so it isn't punishable really at the end unless something outranges it outright (blizzard does this, though not very useful). ftilt is pretty much the same story, two hitboxes, FASTER than fsmash, nearly safer on block, and punishes the CPU climber unless you shield in anticipation, in which PS alone getting the grab is relinquished. Dair and ftilt alone are really, really good IC separators.
Offstage game: Lucario gimps solo IC really easily, and if there's an attempt to rescue offstage, lucario has the advantage. Dair makes this a strong reality, in conjunction with fair.
Nair autocancels, has a lingering hitbox, and has range + comes out of fair's IASA frames, making his landing much easier. Once again though, lucario + platforms = better chance at this MU.
1/2 gimp is nearly just as bad for IC as lucario getting infinited, safest MU for lucario to face, sopo gets outcamped (AS fires faster), out-ranged, out sped (ICs are probably the highest on the tier list that are overall slow framewise where it counts). Plus Lucario moves are safe on block, and solo dthrow CG hardly gives any gain.
Stages with platforms give lucario a ton of safety. uair is ICs most reliable reply to aerial harassment, and is once again, outranged and is slower.
If and when Lucario gets CG'd, if lucario can get a gimp (once again, some really good separator tools), he's back in.
Another thing, lucario gets killability vs. midweights as early as in the 100% range. Iirc, ICs are on the light side, and being behind one stock makes lucario more killworthy than what people make him out to be (for those who don't know, he gets a buff for when he's behind a stock), which gives him a decent 65% or so to have some killpower against ICs assuming they're in the 80% range or so.
Lucario has safe options, platform superiority, and good separating/gimp capability, plus longer ranged, lingering hitboxes make for safer moves on shield + are icky against Nana. I don't see how this is IC favor, I'm sorry, let alone 60:40.
Another note: Fair will not be used close to the ground, it has landing lag, I'm getting implications that people haven't seen lucario zone effectively once within SH distance. In a very crude sense of the MU, it's like Lucario has traded a little less range and speed for more safeness on block.
Blizzard is going to help a bit, as are Ice blocks, and pivot grab.
Edit: I can now see it possibly being in ICs favor. I kind of get where Meep is going with this, and with the neutrals on hand, I'd say it's 50:50. The fact that lucario is hard to grab is negated a bit by the fact that he takes a long time to kill. I also think that whoever gets the first stock/if lucario gimps one/if ICs infinite (or miss) determines a whoooole ton of who wins the MU. Meep has been approaching this correctly, minus the pluses of lucario's game.
