Geno (♥♪!?): Return of the Starsend Savior

[AceAttorney9000]

With everyone posting their predictions for the next four fighters, here's mine in light of Steve...

• Since the beginning of September, we've been getting a ton of announcements and such that likely would've been a part of E3 2020. I'm of the belief that Steve was intended to be a part of E3 2020. Combine this with the fact that E3 usually has multiple Smash characters, as well as Steve being a similar pick to Hero (a character from a massive and influential game that appeals to the average gamer, but doesn't have too much appeal with hardcore Smash fans), and I think Geno is Fighter 8, intended to be E3 2020's equivalent to Banjo (a character that most average gamers don't really know, but is a long-awaited fan favorite to hardcore Smash fans). Plus, the Gil Mii Costume came back with Steve, which now leaves us with four Smash 4 Mii Costumes left (five if you count the Monster Hunter costumes separately), so if any of the costumes are gonna become playable or deconfirmed, I think Fighter 8 is when we're gonna find out for sure.
• I'm of the opinion that two Mii Fighter costumes are gonna be promoted to being fully playable characters, with Geno being one of them. The other is gonna be a toss-up between Lloyd and Monster Hunter. Both have their advantages (both come from huge series that are popular in Japan and to a lesser extent the West, both are also popular requests for Smash) and disadvantages (Namco hasn't had a second character besides Pac-Man yet for some reason, while the Monster Hunter devs could potentially veto a playable Hunter in Smash). Lloyd does have one thing in his favor, that being the lack of any Tales content in Smash yet (while I don't think Rathalos being in Ultimate's base game deconfirms Monster Hunter, it does make it seem like a playable Hunter wouldn't be necessary because the series representation is "good enough"). Still, I could see it being either one.
• Still think Crash is one of the more likely characters, and the recent Activision memo further solidifies that for me. It doesn't guarantee Crash being playable (like Suda's comments on Travis in Smash, it could just lead to a Crash Mii costume and nothing more), but it's at least a good sign, and even if Crash isn't playable, I would be surprised if Smash Ultimate's DLC comes and goes without any Crash content of some sort getting in.
• Also still think Rex is likely, as both another first-party character that previously didn't make it like Min Min, and as the more controversial final pick like Byleth was for the previous pass. Even if Rex doesn't make it, I still generally expect another first-party character somewhere later in the pass.

 

[Shaboba]

I feel like this song is pretty accurate to all of us each time we're waiting for a new fighter being announced hoping its Geno because each time he has a decent chance:

This, except on x2 playback speed

 

[ForsakenM]

Still hoping for Geno next! I want Geno and Doomguy on this pass, even though I highly, highly disbelieve Cacomallow because I will not be strung along like a helpless child such as when the Grinch leak was hot off the presses.

I'm not sure how this thread stands on Cacomallow as of now, but I thought it'd be an interesting point of discussion.

I just think it could've been so easily faked. Like I said, the Grinch leak had most people believing and we know how that turned out. Same with Artsy Omni's Rayman leak from Smash 4, which was an actual video, and that turned out fake.

People can create models so easily, and I feel like we would have seen these costumes by now.

Hey there bud, no offense but the Grinch leak never really had all that much going for it.

It was just a couple of iffy images that most of the experts said was clearly fake but since it being real was basically a gold mine everyone latched onto every little thing that could perhaps make it real. Thus, there was lots of disappointed, and it was honestly no one's fault but those who believed such a thing could happen this late into the game's base development.

Cacomallow has a ****ing video for Christ sakes, and that's with a couple images in tow. Logic follows that the team would focus on getting all the costumes down ASAP once greenlit to have them all ready to release and then they can stow them away and decide how to divvy them outside of what was already done in legal binding. And in that Steve took his sweet block-ass time to get here and that Codroid 19 caused a delay (Possibly more than we realize. Remember that Sakurai said they were back on schedule I believe in late April or early May but Steve's presentation was recorded in August which either means the delays were worse OR that Steve was an E3 reveal but took much more time than Hero did to make, which honestly makes more sense) and Cacomallow taking this long to have any evidence yay or nay makes a lot more sense.

I've come to the conclusion that we will likely see it one way or another before 2021. Reason being is because even with these delays we are going on a year since Cacomallow dropped and it seems like we should know sooner rather than later, though they could in fact hold onto these costumes for a bit longer. It just makes sense to get Geno next because balancing out the pass with the next biggest Smash fanbase pick right after what is easily the biggest casual pick makes a lot of sense and it honestly echoes what happened at last year's E3. November makes the most sense to see something because the only Smash reveal that is in the running and worthy of the VGAs is Crash and while possible I doubt two big name 3rd parties with massive casual appeal will happen back to back like that.

Is there any particular reason people are hard betting on Lloyd? I used to have him in my FP2 prediction as well, but honestly the fact that all the Bandai Namco costumes have been slowly released instead of what would be more logical if Lloyd was in the game, which would be to include them with Lloyd, make me more inclined to think he isn't going to make it this time around. If there's anything I'm missing I'd be curious to see.

Anyways here's my predictions with approximate timeframes.

78: Geno. Yeah I know most of us are betting on Geno, and while I still don't think he's ultra likely, (It's about a 60/40 for me, which is still much more than I'm willing to give to most characters) the combination of suspicious takedowns and the fact that there's still a Chocobo Mii costume being held back with no sign of that Geno costume make me think Chocobo is being saved for something and that Geno will be fully playable. Either way I'm pretty confident we're at least getting a Square Enix character this pass because all these spirit events show that even after FP1 they're still in contact with Square and it makes no sense to hold off those 2 Mii costumes for so long if there wasn't something else being planned since we've had a plethora of RPG characters as DLC where it'd make thematic sense to release these costumes.

As for when he'll come out. I think we'll hear about him at The Game Awards this year alongside a Mario RPG remake and he'll release in February 2021. I know that this is a lot of ifs but these predictions are useless if you don't go at least a bit bold with things.

79: Crash. I think we'll get 2 reveals at E3 per the norm. I think one will probably release in June while the other releases in August. Frankly E3 needs at least one big hitter, and by process of elimination Crash fits the bill for me. Keep in mind I could easily see Crash and Geno swapping here, since both would be a big deal. I just think that with the 35th anniversary plans Geno was probably supposed to come out in line with that timeframe, therefore it makes more sense for Crash to come out afterwards. As for why Crash will get in, frankly I don't buy that leaked project plan, I feel like I could've guessed half that stuff in 2017. But I digress, I simply think Crash is the natural evolution of Smash's brand expansion. I think the fact that Microsoft being the first company to have 2 DLC characters in Ultimate is a sign of increased willingness to work with western third parties. With a lot of iconic Japanese franchises being in Smash, expanding to non-Microsoft western companies seems like a clear next step and Crash might be the biggest no-brainer to pick from that mindset.

80: Arle. To be honest Arle is the character that I'm most unsure about in my prediction. However, I included her for a couple of reasons. First of all I feel E3 2021 will probably resemble 2019 to a degree, one big western fan favorite and one Japanese icon, helping keep the show balanced for all audiences. Arle fits the bill as a big Japanese character. She also represents the puzzler which is a HUGE aspect of gaming history that currently doesn't have its place in Smash, I mean just look at the sales for a lot of those games. Plus I've noticed so far that FP2 has a big focus on wacky and unique movesets, with Min Min and Steve being some of the weirdest characters we've seen yet. Arle's focus on Puyo Puyo elements would certainly fit this hyper unique focus they've gone with.

81: Dante. I think we'll see our final character released in time by November or December 2021. Who though was tough to decide. I wanted to go with Rex, but in the end I backed out. The thing that made me turn my head was that Xenoblade already does have representation in Smash, and with Xenoblade 1's remake being more recent than Xenoblade 2, Shulk is actually more of a promotional character than Rex would be at this point. So with that in mind I am backing off Rex, but I'd still say he's fairly likely and could easily make it in even if he doesn't make my prediction. As for Dante I just feel like Capcom has got to get something in this pass. We still have 2 Monster Hunter costumes unaccounted for, and Imran seems to have outright poo pooed a Monster Hunter fighter. The only competition left is Phoenix Wright, who I feel just doesn't have the name recognition that Dante has, and Ace Attorney hasn't had this big push that Devil May Cry has had over the last 2 years or so. Those comments by the devs also felt super weird, like clearly they had to know those ports were coming, yet they chose that as the barrier for Dante's entry. As they say in Among Us, that's sus.

Gonna call yikes on that Arle one man. As much as it gives papagenos a speculation boner there has never been any real evidence for Arle at all. I personally call the same for Dante and honestly he was heard rather late. I think Hayabusa has a much better chance then either of them.

As for Lloyd, the reason he's so likely is the same reason you just suggested, but from everyone else saying hello from the other side.

Basically, Lloyd now has the Geno Boost of not having his costume show up for seven waves now (SEVEN! AHH~!). See, it would have been awful easy to toss Lloyd's costume into one of the many grab bags. Like, Byleth is a sword fighter and Lloyd could have shown up there, but he didn't. Lloyd has been in Soul Calibur and Min-Min was also a grab bag so he could have been in there, but instead JudgeHeihachi was given his own sentence. Now in we come with another grab bag and TECHNICALLY a character that uses a sword, and instead of Lloyd we have Gil. Neither Gil nor Heihachi were frontrunners for Bamco: it was ALWAYS Lloyd, ever since Sakurai laughed and said 'It had to be Lloyd' in his Smash 4 interview. Nazyrus has done the Lord's work for making it clear that Lloyd is even still a key face for the Tales Of series as a whole and that he is CLEARLY the face everyone picks for Smash.

Honestly, if I wasn't too busy willing Geno into Smash by always saying he is next, I would argue that Lloyd could easily fill that fan request sweet spot for CP8.

With everyone posting their predictions for the next four fighters, here's mine in light of Steve...

• Since the beginning of September, we've been getting a ton of announcements and such that likely would've been a part of E3 2020. I'm of the belief that Steve was intended to be a part of E3 2020. Combine this with the fact that E3 usually has multiple Smash characters, as well as Steve being a similar pick to Hero (a character from a massive and influential game that appeals to the average gamer, but doesn't have too much appeal with hardcore Smash fans), and I think Geno is Fighter 8, intended to be E3 2020's equivalent to Banjo (a character that most average gamers don't really know, but is a long-awaited fan favorite to hardcore Smash fans). Plus, the Gil Mii Costume came back with Steve, which now leaves us with four Smash 4 Mii Costumes left (five if you count the Monster Hunter costumes separately), so if any of the costumes are gonna become playable or deconfirmed, I think Fighter 8 is when we're gonna find out for sure.
• I'm of the opinion that two Mii Fighter costumes are gonna be promoted to being fully playable characters, with Geno being one of them. The other is gonna be a toss-up between Lloyd and Monster Hunter. Both have their advantages (both come from huge series that are popular in Japan and to a lesser extent the West, both are also popular requests for Smash) and disadvantages (Namco hasn't had a second character besides Pac-Man yet for some reason, while the Monster Hunter devs could potentially veto a playable Hunter in Smash). Lloyd does have one thing in his favor, that being the lack of any Tales content in Smash yet (while I don't think Rathalos being in Ultimate's base game deconfirms Monster Hunter, it does make it seem like a playable Hunter wouldn't be necessary because the series representation is "good enough"). Still, I could see it being either one.
• Still think Crash is one of the more likely characters, and the recent Activision memo further solidifies that for me. It doesn't guarantee Crash being playable (like Suda's comments on Travis in Smash, it could just lead to a Crash Mii costume and nothing more), but it's at least a good sign, and even if Crash isn't playable, I would be surprised if Smash Ultimate's DLC comes and goes without any Crash content of some sort getting in.
• Also still think Rex is likely, as both another first-party character that previously didn't make it like Min Min, and as the more controversial final pick like Byleth was for the previous pass. Even if Rex doesn't make it, I still generally expect another first-party character somewhere later in the pass.

Geez, again with the ****ing Monster Hunter bull**** when it's been canned with all the arguments even Imran Khan came out and **** all over it and for Christ's sake people I swear...

breathes deeply despite this clearly being purposely hyperbolic anger

Monster Hunter is very low in likelihood no matter how you try and spin it. I suppose I will have to make that video afterall...

As for Rex, I hate to say it but his costume wasn't a base game thing: it was a bonus for paying the first pass. You have to pay to get this costume, which I think is something to truly consider. In addition, while they COULD put in another 1st party character, the first pass was mostly 3rd party and I feel like the list of potential 3rd party reps in discussion right now is too big and too juicy to really consider another 1st party rep for Vol 2. Frankly, it seems Nintendo is CURRENTLY only interested in 1st party reps that promote a big new game or IP that they can get bonus sales out of via promotion and honestly Nintendo doesn't really have that right now due to dev issues and delays.

 

[AceAttorney9000]

Geez, again with the ing Monster Hunter bull when it's been canned with all the arguments even Imran Khan came out and **** all over it and for Christ's sake people I swear...

breathes deeply despite this clearly being purposely hyperbolic anger

Monster Hunter is very low in likelihood no matter how you try and spin it. I suppose I will have to make that video afterall...

You're free to make a video if you want, but I'm more than likely not gonna bother watching it.

I know what Imran said about Monster Hunter, and I even acknowledged that Lloyd has a slight advantage... still not gonna count out Monster Hunter just yet, especially when Nintendo could easily pull a "That's where you're wrong, kiddo"-surprise and give us Monster Hunter anyway instead of Lloyd... or hell, maybe even in addition to Lloyd, maybe both will become playable. Not sure why my stance is worthy of anger (even the fake exaggerated kind), but you do you.

 

[TheShiningAbsol]

Cacomallow has a ****ing video for Christ sake

And we all know videos can't be fake

 

[ForsakenM]

You're free to make a video if you want, but I'm more than likely not gonna bother watching it.

I know what Imran said about Monster Hunter, and I even acknowledged that Lloyd has a slight advantage... still not gonna count out Monster Hunter just yet, especially when Nintendo could easily pull a "That's where you're wrong, kiddo"-surprise and give us Monster Hunter anyway instead of Lloyd... or hell, maybe even in addition to Lloyd, maybe both will become playable. Not sure why my stance is worthy of anger (even the fake exaggerated kind), but you do you.

It's less about about your stance and more about not letting go of things that never had much to go on in the first place.

For example, when Paper Mario has base spirits in the game and then got new Spirits from TOK, when in any other situations like Resident Evil or Octopath Traveler or Ring Fit Adventure...or Astral Chain...or Secret of Mana...where we would all agree that this essentially kills their chances of getting in...people still championed that he could STILL be playable. Why? Because they were either pessimist Geno fans or detractors who want anyone but Geno.

Monster Hunter was talked about only briefly when the Rathalos AT was first shown off and was quickly dismissed because it had already gotten the flagship monster in the game. Suddenly because it gets a new game announced for Switch, Monster Hunter is now likely again, despite getting the perfect representation in the base game and getting more attention than most by also having a boss fight and it's own section in WoL. Then when more people such as myself came out showing that the MH team dislikes using the hunters as representation in crossovers everyone flocked to the single example that went against that which was with Marvel Infinite...a game that was full of hatred from it's own fanbase, controversy with DLC practices (of which MH was part of that DLC), sold miserably and didn't even make it to EVO line up the year it came out despite Marvel always being big. Basically, the one time they okay'd it, it was part of a flop. Meanwhile all their other crossovers with monsters instead of hunters have been rather successful.

That's not even considering that the whole argument was baseless and it relied on the illogical argument of 'Game On Switch - Character In Smash' despite just about every game coming out on Switch proving this wrong and the only DLC that remotely lined up to that was Hero and Nintendo ALWAYS shills Dragon Quest, so DQXI would have been shilled with or without a character in Smash. Off the top of my head, here are all the times I can think of where this was just flat out wrong:

• Overwatch
• Astral Chain
• DMC, currently
• Ori, currently
• Sw/Sh and it's DLC
• Ring Fit Adventure
• Origami King
• No More Heroes
• Crash 4, though he's likely coming later

If I took the time I could add many more to the list, and the most recent two are Crash 4 and Monster Hunter Rise. People don't seem to understand that dates and times are determined and scheduled and when you have to pencil things in with the approval of higher ups at Nintendo, cute dates to match up with anniversary or game announcements or game releases are a luxury and very rarely happen.

You don't have to watch my video by the way, but my video will be much more like this where I calmly and logically discredit and disprove the arguments made for a character while doing the research to show evidence to back up claims when I can, not faking anger for laughs. I'm thinking of making it a series in which the random characters that people come up with that just really do not fit the mold and have little to no evidence in their favor or illogical arguments propping them up become my focus. Hopefully it will help spread a less reactionary and more thoughtful approach to speculation circles for Smash.

 

[MamaLuigi123456]

Really the most damning thing against Monster Hunter imo is Byleth. I mean, Byleth plays exactly how Monster Hunter would theoretically play. Sure, they could make them different from Byleth, they very well could, but when we're talking about DLC, which has given us characters wild new mechanics like Hero, Terry, Min Min, and most recently Steve, and even the more vanilla characters like Banjo & Kazooie and Byleth feeling very distinct from the rest of the roster... would they really add in a DLC character that's similar to another DLC character?

Also the fact that if Monster Hunter was coming why not put it in the base game which already has a Monster Hunter boss, Assist Trophy, and """"stage""""?

 

[7NATOR]

Really the most damning thing against Monster Hunter imo is Byleth. I mean, Byleth plays exactly how Monster Hunter would theoretically play. Sure, they could make them different from Byleth, they very well could, but when we're talking about DLC, which has given us characters wild new mechanics like Hero, Terry, Min Min, and most recently Steve, and even the more vanilla characters like Banjo & Kazooie and Byleth feeling very distinct from the rest of the roster... would they really add in a DLC character that's similar to another DLC character?

Also the fact that if Monster Hunter was coming why not put it in the base game which already has a Monster Hunter boss, Assist Trophy, and """"stage""""?

Honestly I'm not even sure if Monster Hunter will be in

But for why they didn't make Base roster, there could be many factors to it that are different from today. Keep in mind when it was planned that Only Rathalos be added, Monster Hunter World did not come out, and that was the game that put the franchise on the map in the west. at the time of 2015, 2016, and even 2017, Monster Hunter was mostly regulated in popularity in japan

You can notice this shift from back then to today. the Monster Hunter Exclusive Directs used to be only in Japan. The One we got recently was the first time it was broadcast to the west, because it's now known there's an audience here

Pretty much Monster Hunter got more merit After Base game and FP1 Decision than they had before, and that's something to consider. Of course if the problem with Monster Hunter has to do with Implementation, that's a problem.

 

[Droodle]

Symphonia is the one in the series that has made most crossovers of all the titles, specially in japan only games like mobile games. Recently we just got ANOTHER of those, Symphonia x Symphogear, nevermind all the crossovers in the past. Lloyd might not be THE top 1 popular tales character, but he is by no means far from being one of the most marketed faces of the whole series in multiple times regardless. They love him quite a bit over there. He is widely beloved on both the east and the west, people just for some reason keep saying it's not the case while it's right there in the faces of everyone

I think you're reading too deeply into my comments.

I'm not saying that Lloyd won't get in; I'm saying that he wouldn't be the "Japanese fan request character" if he did get in. Lloyd isn't ridiculously requested in terms of SMASH in Japan, and it's pretty clear that a large chunk of his Smash push comes from the West. In Japan while there definitely is a good chunk of Tales talk, it's a lot more fragmented in terms of characters. He's still probably the most requested Tales character for Smash both in Japan and in the West, I won't deny that; but he's still a bigger fan favorite in the West in terms of Smash popularity; in fact a good chunk of people in Japan see Lloyd as the most likely simply due to him being the biggest in the West. He'd get in more for Tales general popularity in Japan, rather than his own Japanese Smash requests (although the Smash requests would make him the #1 most likely character for Tales in Smash).

He wouldn't be the "Japanese fan requested" character like Geno is for the West, or how Banjo was. AKA a character who has a small but dedicated following over here, but are massive over there (in terms of Smash). Someone like Arle/Reimu are a closer equivalent to a "Japanese requested character" in the same vein as Geno is a "Western requested character" (in particular Arle has been requested heavily since the Smash 4 days over there).

TL;DR: Tales/Lloyd in Smash would likely happen more due to it's general popularity in Japan, rather than Nintendo trying to appease a huge chunk of Japanese fans who have been asking for him (specifically) for a long time. And while I am a bit shaky on Tales chances of making it this time around, it's still got a pretty good shot. It's just that we have 4 slots left now and like a dozen characters that could have points towards them.

 

[AceAttorney9000]

It's less about about your stance and more about not letting go of things that never had much to go on in the first place.

For example, when Paper Mario has base spirits in the game and then got new Spirits from TOK, when in any other situations like Resident Evil or Octopath Traveler or Ring Fit Adventure...or Astral Chain...or Secret of Mana...where we would all agree that this essentially kills their chances of getting in...people still championed that he could STILL be playable. Why? Because they were either pessimist Geno fans or detractors who want anyone but Geno.

Monster Hunter was talked about only briefly when the Rathalos AT was first shown off and was quickly dismissed because it had already gotten the flagship monster in the game. Suddenly because it gets a new game announced for Switch, Monster Hunter is now likely again, despite getting the perfect representation in the base game and getting more attention than most by also having a boss fight and it's own section in WoL. Then when more people such as myself came out showing that the MH team dislikes using the hunters as representation in crossovers everyone flocked to the single example that went against that which was with Marvel Infinite...a game that was full of hatred from it's own fanbase, controversy with DLC practices (of which MH was part of that DLC), sold miserably and didn't even make it to EVO line up the year it came out despite Marvel always being big. Basically, the one time they okay'd it, it was part of a flop. Meanwhile all their other crossovers with monsters instead of hunters have been rather successful.

I get your issues with people only talking seriously about Monster Hunter after getting one or two new games announced... but for the record, I wasn't one of those people. In fact, even before the new games were announced when people were dismissing the series as unlikely to get a character, I would usually instead point to Monster Hunter as a character people were sleeping on in favor of Resident Evil (before that series got Spirit'd) and Dante. I've held that stance ever since Ultimate's DLC cycle began, and I'm not planning on changing it until either the costumes come back or we get a Monster Hunter Spirit Event, both of which I will accept as hard deconfirmations of Monster Hunter if they happen.

Also the fact that if Monster Hunter was coming why not put it in the base game which already has a Monster Hunter boss, Assist Trophy, and """"stage""""?

Thing is though, that's all the series has right now. My hang up with Monster Hunter and why I think it could get a character is because of how little stuff there is in Ultimate's base game...

• Rathalos, serving three different roles...
  • A boss in both World of Light and several characters' Classic Mode runs.
  • An Assist Trophy.
  • A Spirit.
• A """stage""" where you fight the boss version of Rathalos.
• Two music tracks, both of which I think were holdovers from Smash 4.

... and that's basically it. I could understand if, in addition to Rathalos, we also had Spirits of other monsters (Diablos, Kirin, Nergigante, Fatalis, Rajang, Arzuros... it's not like Monster Hunter is lacking in potential Spirit candidates), as well as additional music tracks beyond the two in Smash 4 (again, Monster Hunter's not lacking in that department). Instead, we literally just have the mascot of the series and nothing else. It feels like the developers left the door open enough for additional content to appear later on, whether it's just a Spirit Event and the Smash 4 costumes returning, or a fully playable Hunter character with the works.

 

[gzmee]

the girls are fightingggggg

 

[NintendoKnight]

And we all know videos can't be fake

And we all definitely know that we've never had leaked videos be real before

Joking aside, after looking back on that Rayman video, there are notable differences between the Rayman model (and Mewtwo model) and the rest of the cast. Omni's work here wasn't as cohesive with the Smash style as his Brawl mockups or his later work through Smashified (save for Banjo, which I think is one of his weaker renders, honestly).

One of the things I think adds credibility to the Cacomallow leak is the jiggle physics with the Mallow hat. And at first you might think, "adding jiggle physics is possible with modding and isn't a big deal." That is true, however, I watched that video multiple times while watching the Mallow mii fighter exclusively and had a hard time noticing the jiggle. If someone else hadn't pointed it out, I would've never noticed it.

The jiggle wasn't bombastic like a modder would make it; it was subtle... as if a Smash developer made it. That's where I see the legitimacy of the leak. A one-time mod, that wouldn't be released to the public even a year later, definitely wouldn't be subtle with the jiggle of the hat.

For example, take a look at this modded mockup video made in response to the Cacomallow leak:

Note how obvious the jiggle is. The modder clearly wanted you to see it. It jiggles so much that it's actually distracting. The only thing that bounces or jiggles like that in Smash is the DQ Slime hat from what I recall, nothing else.

 

[Pakky]

And we all definitely know that we've never had leaked videos be real before

Joking aside, after looking back on that Rayman video, there are notable differences between the Rayman model (and Mewtwo model) and the rest of the cast. Omni's work here wasn't as cohesive with the Smash style as his Brawl mockups or his later work through Smashified (save for Banjo, which I think is one of his weaker renders, honestly).

One of the things I think adds credibility to the Cacomallow leak is the jiggle physics with the Mallow hat. And at first you might think, "adding jiggle physics is possible with modding and isn't a big deal." That is true, however, I watched that video multiple times while watching the Mallow mii fighter exclusively and had a hard time noticing the jiggle. If someone else hadn't pointed it out, I would've never noticed it.

The jiggle wasn't bombastic like a modder would make it; it was subtle... as if a Smash developer made it. That's where I see the legitimacy of the leak. A one-time mod, that wouldn't be released to the public even a year later, definitely wouldn't be subtle with the jiggle of the hat.

For example, take a look at this modded mockup video made in response to the Cacomallow leak:

Note how obvious the jiggle is. The modder clearly wanted you to see it. It jiggles so much that it's actually distracting. The only thing that bounces or jiggles like that in Smash is the DQ Slime hat from what I recall, nothing else.

I've never seen this attempt but I agree with what you said.

 

[Peepo T. Skeleton]

Wasn't there a Twitter post that said they only relatively recently managed to work around the filesize limits for costumes? Everything modders made before that had to be rather un-detailed or it would crash the game, right?

If someone could find a link to that post that'd be wonderful.

 

[Fatmanonice]

So, it's kind of ironic that Steve has turned into Smash Speculation Jesus but I had a huge epiphany this morning that I wanted to talk to you guys about. For starters, the fact that Steve, Hero, Banjo, Geno, Ryu, Waluigi, Lloyd, and now Byleth according to Xenother were all heard in 2018 is a hell of a coincidence.

( xenother Also, hey man, sorry about all the **** Sabi caused you back in the day and sorry for assuming you were lying or exaggerating about the Steve stuff and my role in spreading the idea that you did. Glad you got redeemed on that.)

Beyond that, I've come to realize that July has sort of become a "magic month" for Smash speculation and I'll break down why. It's kind of nuts that around each E3 since 2018 there's been major rumors and now they're starting to pan out. Let me just do a quick review and why I almost spat out my coffee this morning when I realized it:

E3 2018: Verge gets information on Minecraft and Steve. Seven Squares leak happens, containing Hero and Geno. RARE admits in January 2020 that Banjo started work at E3 2018.

E3 2019: First serious rumblings of Dante happen. Crash document supposedly leaks and multiple people get Crash information. Lots of weird things happen surrounding Geno. Paragon gets a C&D over "Paraleak." Shifty and Brew have Nintendo reps reach out to them and tell them to stop talking about Ryu.

E3 2020: I get information that the last character greenlit for Season 2 was most likely a Capcom character. One of my guys doubles down on Crash. No less than 4 people come to me with Master Chief information. Lots of insiders tease Geno in July.

So, the picture I'm getting is that E3 reveals are likely planned during the previous E3s. This lines up shockingly well with our theorycraft that Steve and Geno were probably our E3 2020 reveals. Based on how things have gone down, this may suggest our 2021 E3 reveals could be Crash, Chief, and Dante or one of them was meant to be a Spring/Fall 2021 reveal. Fun stuff.

 

[Megadoomer]

I'm a bit late on the predictions front, and I've posted this in several other places, but why not?

This is in no particular order, though I can't see the Fighters Pass ending with the second or third characters; I'd like to think that the developers learned their lesson from Bayonetta and won't end the DLC with action game characters so they have more time to balance them.

* Geno: I really don't think that I need to explain, here of all places, why I think he's likely. In case I do - roughly two decades of fan demand (during a game that seems to be going out of its way to satisfy long-time fan demands), Square-Enix being more cooperative than in previous Smash games (characters getting more than two songs; multiple spirit events), both of Square-Enix's flagship franchises already being in the game, Sakurai's previously-expressed interest in making the character playable...

The lack of outright gut punches from the Mii costumes in this game seem to help - the closest that I've seen so far would be Heihachi from Tekken or Travis Touchdown, but they've avoided most popular characters this time around, unlike how Smash 4 used Mii costumes as consolation prizes for characters like Inkling, K. Rool, or Geno. If Square-Enix gets another character this time around, there are some competitors with a long history behind them (Lara Croft), or some highly regarded games (Crono, 2B), but none of them have the kind of dedicated/devoted Smash demand that Geno has behind him, and as we saw with Banjo taking priority over Master Chief and Steve, sometimes, that's all that's needed.

* Ryu Hayabusa: Koei-Tecmo seems like the last big Japanese third party company that doesn't have a playable character in Smash. Koei-Tecmo is so close to Nintendo nowadays that they've worked on multiple spin-offs, a main Fire Emblem game (Three Houses), and a game showing the backstory of Zelda: Breath of the Wild. (Hyrule Warriors: Age of Calamity) On top of that, Ninja Gaiden seems a lot like Castlevania - it's got a history stretching back to the NES, it can cleanly be divided into two very different types of games (in this case, classic platformers and modern action games), it's been out of the spotlight for a while, and it seems like the title that the developers (and composers) would jump at the chance to work on.

* Dante: unlike Bandai-Namco, Capcom doesn't exactly seem shy or hesitant about including its characters in Smash Bros. Monster Hunter seems like it could be another plausible choice, though between the comments by Itsuno and Kamiya (here, here, and here), the comments about Dante needing to be on a Nintendo platform almost immediately being followed up by the announcement of DMC1 on Switch, Devil May Cry's history and influence on the genre (I don't know if it was the first game of this style to make the leap to 3D, but it certainly influenced games like God of War and most of Platinum's line-up), and the character's popularity, I feel like he's quite likely.

* Bandanna Waddle Dee: this spot could go to another Nintendo character (Impa, Elma, Rex, Dixie Kong, a character from a currently-unannounced Fire Emblem game... please don't be that last one. We get it Sakurai, you like Fire Emblem - show other first party series some love when it comes to DLC!), but I figure that Bandanna Waddle Dee seems pretty plausible considering that he's a fairly popular pick regardless of what region you're talking about, he's consistently been treated as one of the main Kirby cast since the Wii, Smash games are based on Kirby games to some degree so his moveset could easily make the transition, and he technically debuted in Kirby Super Star if people are going to point out that Sakurai tends to draw from the four Kirby games that he directed and their remakes. I just figure that the rest of this Fighters Pass isn't going to be entirely third party.

Mind you, my predictions are likely way off (before Steve's reveal, I figured we'd get Master Chief if we got another Microsoft character), but I figured I'd post them anyway. I could see any of them working well in Smash, to the point where I made movesets for all four of them (though Ryu Hayabusa's is very recent, and based almost entirely on one game).

Honourable mentions go to Crash, Rayman, and Doomguy, though at this point, as much as I'd like to see Doomguy in Smash, I feel like it's wishful thinking on my part.

 

[cybersai]

Is there any reason people here overlook a new Pokemon? Sakurai flat out says he always leaves a spot open to Pokemon, and as seen with Byleth Nintendo isn't adverse to including constant promotion of current franchises.

I still think the most rumored characters like Ryu Hayabusa, a possible Namco or Capcom rep (Tales or Dante or whatever) are most likely because they keep coming up.

 

[Heoj]

Is there any reason people here overlook a new Pokemon? Sakurai flat out says he always leaves a spot open to Pokemon, and as seen with Byleth Nintendo isn't adverse to including constant promotion of current franchises.

I still think the most rumored characters like Ryu Hayabusa, a possible Namco or Capcom rep (Tales or Dante or whatever) are most likely because they keep coming up.

Honestly id bet my left kidney we arent getting a shillmon. For me, the spirit event is enough for me to eliminate another pokemon, just like how it does for other characters like paper mario

 

[RetrogamerMax]

Is there any reason people here overlook a new Pokemon? Sakurai flat out says he always leaves a spot open to Pokemon, and as seen with Byleth Nintendo isn't adverse to including constant promotion of current franchises.

I still think the most rumored characters like Ryu Hayabusa, a possible Namco or Capcom rep (Tales or Dante or whatever) are most likely because they keep coming up.

We already got a Pokemon newcomer in Ultimate, it's Incineroar. I don't think we need another one.

 

[Karen6969]

Speculation is interesting for me right now because Geno still has a lot going for him and I’d love to see him in smash along with some SMRPG songs and a stage... but after the Min Min presentation and Steve/Bomberman costume my number 1 pick, Waluigi, is slowly rising from the ashes of assist trophy deconfirm hell. I finally feel like I can talk about Waluigi openly now without being blasted with “assist trophies deconfirm LOOOOOOL”, but at the same time Geno still looks like he has a good shot and I really don’t see us getting both of them; I DO think that we will get at LEAST one of them though. I’ll be happy with either honestly

Thank you for listening to my ted talk

 

[Firox]

And we all definitely know that we've never had leaked videos be real before

Joking aside, after looking back on that Rayman video, there are notable differences between the Rayman model (and Mewtwo model) and the rest of the cast. Omni's work here wasn't as cohesive with the Smash style as his Brawl mockups or his later work through Smashified (save for Banjo, which I think is one of his weaker renders, honestly).

One of the things I think adds credibility to the Cacomallow leak is the jiggle physics with the Mallow hat. And at first you might think, "adding jiggle physics is possible with modding and isn't a big deal." That is true, however, I watched that video multiple times while watching the Mallow mii fighter exclusively and had a hard time noticing the jiggle. If someone else hadn't pointed it out, I would've never noticed it.

The jiggle wasn't bombastic like a modder would make it; it was subtle... as if a Smash developer made it. That's where I see the legitimacy of the leak. A one-time mod, that wouldn't be released to the public even a year later, definitely wouldn't be subtle with the jiggle of the hat.

For example, take a look at this modded mockup video made in response to the Cacomallow leak:

Note how obvious the jiggle is. The modder clearly wanted you to see it. It jiggles so much that it's actually distracting. The only thing that bounces or jiggles like that in Smash is the DQ Slime hat from what I recall, nothing else.

Excellent rebuttal. I want to add that the Rayman "video" can hardly be compared to Cacomallow since a menu icon and still-shot of Rayman is infinitely easier to fake than actual GAMEPLAY footage. You can't compare apples to oranges here. Another thing to note about CM, historically speaking, gameplay video leaks have NEVER ended up being fake (see Shulk, Bow Jr and Ken). If CM ends up being a fake (that nobody ever took credit for), then it will be the first time in Smash history that a gameplay video has done so.

 

[Mr. Peepee]

Well I mean the same thing happened to Fire Emblem, Chrom in the base game, Byleth in DLC
Incineroar in base game, _________ as DLC

We already got a Pokemon newcomer in Ultimate, it's Incineroar. I don't think we need another one.

 

[T2by4]

Just noticed that "Goomba" is listed in the credits of Crash 4 under the Pets section. Obviously it could be a joke as it has other names like Betty White and whatnot, but it is something I noticed. Probably isn't a hint for Smash or anything but still something notable with the Crash speculation.

 

[Vector Victor]

Excellent rebuttal. I want to add that the Rayman "video" can hardly be compared to Cacomallow since a menu icon and still-shot of Rayman is infinitely easier to fake than actual GAMEPLAY footage. You can't compare apples to oranges here. Another thing to note about CM, historically speaking, gameplay video leaks have NEVER ended up being fake. If CM ends up being a fake (that nobody ever took credit for), then it will be the first time in Smash history that a gameplay video has done so.

Also, Omni came out and admitted to the video immediately, not giving people a long enough chance to tear the video apart frame by frame to see if it was legit or not.

 

[Megadoomer]

Excellent rebuttal. I want to add that the Rayman "video" can hardly be compared to Cacomallow since a menu icon and still-shot of Rayman is infinitely easier to fake than actual GAMEPLAY footage. You can't compare apples to oranges here. Another thing to note about CM, historically speaking, gameplay video leaks have NEVER ended up being fake (see Shulk, Bow Jr and Ken). If CM ends up being a fake (that nobody ever took credit for), then it will be the first time in Smash history that a gameplay video has done so.

I'm torn on the Cacomallow leak, but we've seen time and time again that people are more than willing to go above and beyond in order to make fake leaks and mess with the Smash community.

It being fake would require one anonymous person to surpass the entire Smash Ultimate modding community in terms of being able to add high-quality Mii costumes into the game and then never doing anything like that again (though I wouldn't put it past someone to do that), but it being real would mean that the Mii hats were finished well over a year before they were actually announced, which seems increasingly implausible the longer that this wait goes on. (though as we've seen with Steve, rumours like this can take a while to actually pan out)

Either way, I'm not sure there's much else to discuss that hasn't been brought up by this point. I'd say it's like beating a dead horse, except it's gone beyond that point by now.

 

[Fatmanonice]

Is there any reason people here overlook a new Pokemon? Sakurai flat out says he always leaves a spot open to Pokemon, and as seen with Byleth Nintendo isn't adverse to including constant promotion of current franchises.

I still think the most rumored characters like Ryu Hayabusa, a possible Namco or Capcom rep (Tales or Dante or whatever) are most likely because they keep coming up.

He did leave a spot open. It was Inceniroar and Sakurai specifically said this. He even said that Inceniroar wasn't even chosen as the Pokemon rep until AFTER Ultra Sun and Moon came out. This means that Sakurai didn't even decide on Inceniroar until late 2017.

Sakurai on Smash Bros. Ultimate - why Incineroar was chosen and more

Following some of the excerpts that made it online yesterday, we now have the full column from Super Smash Bros. Ultimate director Masahiro Sakurai that was published in this week’s issue of Famitsu. We did cover quite a bit of this last night, but there are a few extra statements with Sakurai...

nintendoeverything.com

We also know that Three Houses began development in 2015 so Byleth was the placeholder Fire Emblem character.

Fire Emblem: Three Houses - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

 

[RetrogamerMax]

Well I mean the same thing happened to Fire Emblem, Chrom in the base game, Byleth in DLC
Incineroar in base game, _________ as DLC

I'm just saying man, we have enough Pokemon. While it might sound unfair for Sword & Shield to miss the boat for a rep, Gen 3 and Gen 5 miss the boat for reps in Brawl and Smash 4 as well so it won't be a big deal. Plus, I think it would be better if we got other characters from franchises that are not in Smash yet or characters from underrepresented franchises in Smash. Pokemon and Fire Emblem don't need anymore newcomers in Ultimate.

 

[ForsakenM]

I'm torn on the Cacomallow leak, but we've seen time and time again that people are more than willing to go above and beyond in order to make fake leaks and mess with the Smash community.

Man that looks really fake. The quality just seems so off on both the stage and character models and Springmans movement is so still and unrefined.

Cacomallow is nothing like this.

 

[Mr. Peepee]

This post right here, this is why I don’t want a Pokémon rep

I'm just saying man, we have enough Pokemon. While it might sound unfair for Sword & Shield to miss the boat for a rep, Gen 3 and Gen 5 miss the boat for reps in Brawl and Smash 4 as well so it won't be a big deal. Plus, I think it would be better if we got other characters from franchises that are not in Smash yet or characters from underrepresented franchises in Smash. Pokemon and Fire Emblem don't need anymore newcomers in Ultimate.

 

[Nazyrus]

Now you've got me wanting Leisure Suit Larry for Smash just so I can see the looks of utter confusion on everyone's faces.

With his big dumb head and laugh, lmao

 

[Firox]

Also, Omni came out and admitted to the video immediately, not giving people a long enough chance to tear the video apart frame by frame to see if it was legit or not.

Wait, what? Who's Omni? Did they admit to "leaking" CM or did they admit to faking it?

I'm torn on the Cacomallow leak, but we've seen time and time again that people are more than willing to go above and beyond in order to make fake leaks and mess with the Smash community.

It being fake would require one anonymous person to surpass the entire Smash Ultimate modding community in terms of being able to add high-quality Mii costumes into the game and then never doing anything like that again (though I wouldn't put it past someone to do that), but it being real would mean that the Mii hats were finished well over a year before they were actually announced, which seems increasingly implausible the longer that this wait goes on. (though as we've seen with Steve, rumours like this can take a while to actually pan out)

Either way, I'm not sure there's much else to discuss that hasn't been brought up by this point. I'd say it's like beating a dead horse, except it's gone beyond that point by now.

Yeah, to second ForsakenM, this video is questionable in a lot more ways than the previous leaks I referenced (Shulk, Bow Jr and Ken). For example, neither character (Springman or Decidueye) actually moves or fights. All you see are idle animations. Programming a whole fleshed-out moveset requires expertise that almost no modder out there has. Granted, the mii costumes of CM are a notably different matter, but still, the subtle jiggle physics on Mallow's costume don't strike me as something a regular modder would think to do. Most would simply resort to a rigid model.

Regardless, as I said, no GAMEPLAY video (as in, footage of an actual moveset) has ever proven false. The fact that CM features Mii costumes does leave some room for doubt, but I'll tell you what, if someone ever leaked footage of Geno actually fighting and throwing around never-before-seen moves with a top tier model, I'd have to call it 100% real.

 

[Mr. Peepee]

Question, who made Cacomallow? Was it the same guy who leaked Ken before? The only evidence is that he's doing the thumbs up pose, maybe that's their calling card?

 

[Mizzle]

Wait, what? Who's Omni? Did they admit to "leaking" CM or did they admit to faking it?



Yeah, to second ForsakenM, this video is questionable in a lot more ways than the previous leaks I referenced (Shulk, Bow Jr and Ken). For example, neither character (Springman or Decidueye) actually moves or fights. All you see are idle animations. Programming a whole fleshed-out moveset requires expertise that almost no modder out there has. Granted, the mii costumes of CM are a notably different matter, but still, the subtle jiggle physics on Mallow's costume don't strike me as something a regular modder would think to do. Most would simply resort to a rigid model.

Regardless, as I said, no GAMEPLAY video (as in, footage of an actual moveset) has ever proven false. The fact that CM features Mii costumes does leave some room for doubt, but I'll tell you what, if someone ever leaked footage of Geno actually fighting and throwing around never-before-seen moves with a top tier model, I'd have to call it 100% real.

Omni was the one who made the Rayman "leak" for Smash 4.

 

[Let Geno Smash]

Firox Artsy Omni is a guy who works on SmashField (A group of people who makes 3D Models for Potential Smash Newcomers) he made the Rayman Leak for tease what SmashField is. He made it so well that everybody believed that Rayman was coming. He said that was made by he the day after and apologized to the Rayman fans. It has nothing to do with Cacomallow

 

[T2by4]

Hey Fatmanonice could you list in order who you believe is most likely based off what you've gotten so far? Do you hear waluigi more than Geno? Is crash menionted a lot? Who do you think is most likely in based off what you've gotten so far.

 

[Chad K Rule]

Had a dream last night geno came back as a mii fighter but the deluxe we would expect. Sakurai made modified graphics for the mii gunner moves so they looked like attacks that geno does. Cant say Id be horribly mad if they went the extra mile for the mii outfit. But Naa, we made it this far lets see him in as a fighter!

 

[Mr. Peepee]

Let's play a game, count down every time you see Geno in a fake 4Chan leak.

 

[Peepo T. Skeleton]

With his big dumb head and laugh, lmao

The RARE Gang is just chilling at DK's house when they hear a huge racket outside. An ominous shadow appears outside the window.

"Hi there! The name's Larry. Larry Laffer!"

...Everyone goes back to sleep.

 

[YsDisciple]

For the sake of refreshing our minds in regards to the CacoMallow leak, here's a video showing the image leak, and the gameplay footage. You may mute the sound just to impartially observe and appreciate the image and gameplay.
https://youtu.be/1DFp_AXQTZg?t=17

Following from what Fatman mentioned earlier; the fact that Steve, Hero, Banjo, Geno, Ryu (Hayabusa), Waluigi, Lloyd, and Byleth were heard around 2018 according to Xenother makes sense not only in regards to the timing of the CacoMallow leak's appearance, but also the characters that did get added to Ultimate out of those.

So the characters (again) that were heard sometime in 2018 were:

• Steve (Microsoft)
• Hero (Square Enix)
• Banjo & Kazooie (Microsoft)
• Geno (Square Enix)
• Ryu Hayabusa (Koei Tecmo)
• Waluigi (Nintendo)
• Lloyd Irving (Bandai Namco)
• Byleth (Nintendo)

Do notice how some of these characters belong to the same Company. Considering this, within a Fighters Pass it would be "unfair" (perhaps) to include characters from one same partner Company. Ah, then in that case, among these characters most likely the dev team had to decide which of these would be added to the first Fighters Pass, while the others would be kept on hold depending on said pass' success. It didn't take long to realize that the first Fighters Pass was a runaway success with the surprise reveal of Joker (from Persona 5) kicking off as Challenger Pack 1; following with Hero, and Banjo & Kazooie as CPs 2 and 3 respectively.

For Fighters Pass (1), out of the names heard in 2018 the picks were,

• Hero (Square Enix)
• Banjo & Kazooie (Microsoft)
• Byleth (Nintendo)

What criteria they used in deciding which characters would be chosen for the first Fighters Pass remains an unknown variable. Luckily a second Fighters Pass came along and so far we've gotten another one of those names; Steve (Microsoft). Thus at the moment, the following names remain in the air,

• Geno (Square Enix)
• Ryu Hayabusa (Koei Tecmo)
• Waluigi (Nintendo)
• Lloyd Irving (Bandai Namco)

Huh, four characters; how coincidental (knowing there are still four slots remaining in the Fighters Pass Vol. 2). With Fighters Pass 1 however we got characters whose names weren't known such as Joker and Terry (although Terry started doing the rounds close to his reveal). In that sense, we should expect the same happening for Fighters Pass Vol. 2; the inclusion of characters that weren't head of way back then (in 2018), but have been doing the rounds much later (possibly near the date of what could have been their reveal).

With the other names that have been rumored around 2019 and onward, it's only a matter of adding them to the ones from 2018 and that's very much the speculation pool we find ourselves in at present time (and have been in for quite some time). Imo though, the names from 2018 should have priority over the later ones since most likely negotiations for them had already been made, and the others were done as well just in case (for additional passes).

 

[AdamBel731]

I'm a believer in Cacomallow, but the only thing that makes me pause is that Nintendo never took the video down. I know people say that Nintendo wouldn't do that because that would just immediately confirm the legitimacy of the video, but that hasn't stopped Nintendo in the past though, right?

Do people reconcile that fact by saying when Nintendo has taken stuff down it was closer to release, whereas this Cacomallow stuff is theoretically farther from the video's release? Again, I'm a Cacomallow believer, but Nintendo not taking any action does make me squirm a little bit. I guess Nintendo might have not wanted to take any action since that would confirm the legitimacy of the video? Maybe? But I don't know about that.

Maybe someone can soothe my mind on this fact. As aside from that wrinkle, Cacomallow looks real as all get out and seems real.