Sovereign Trinity
Smash Ace
- Joined
- Nov 11, 2018
- Messages
- 852
I finished all of this. Wow, my mind is blown and I must resist on getting my hopes up, but with all this evidence of SMRPG's composer already being onboard, Geno and Mallow being the only Square spirits, the senior artist drawing, Geno told as "not taken too seriously" to throw us off, the 22nd year tweet, the trivia question, the SMRPG music played at the Nintendo NY store, no SMRPG music at all in the game, SMRPG references, Megasmilax mentioning, CHEWIE mentioning, etc., there's just so much evidence that can go for Geno. I really wonder if he's coming. I'll try not to get my hopes up, but I'm fine with Geno being 2nd and Erdrick being our 4th or 5th DLC character because his fans will also get what they want.Erdrick, Geno & Leakbait: Phew, I'm finally done. Good day everyone I am here to finally post my Speculation Piece I was mentioning yesterday I worked hard on it and stayed up all night last night working on it so I'll probably take a nap after I finish posting it but I'm here to Speculate on the whole SE rep situation, notably Erdrick, Geno & Leakbait so without further ado let's begin. Also side note it's a very long read so I suggest you read at your own pace.
Before we Begin let's define what Leakbait is and what it's used for, Leakbait is the process of a few Employees spreading false information to root out Leakers and catch them redhanded.
Now Let's examine the "Incineroar is Leakbait" theory the community had going while the Grinch Hoax was still alive, it didn't make sense for Incineroar to
be leakbait for one simple reason, when companies do leakbait they usually send out multiple names which wasn't the case for Incineroar but is indeed what happened with the Seven Square names. You would've thought if Incineroar was leakbait some people would've heard "Mimikyu, Decidueye, Lycanroc, Alolan Raichu, Alolan Pokemon Trainer" and so on but no, we had a consistant answer of it being Incineroar.
The Opposite is what's happening with the Square rep we saw Spawn Wave make hints towards Sora being revealed at the TGA's, We saw a few leaks say Chrono namely This one and The JSon Leak. And of course Verge, Polar/Xenother and Tansut claiming Erdrick. That's the difference between "Incineroar is Leakbait!" and "Erdirck Might be Leakbait" it fits the Criteria of Leakbait, which the Incineroar situation did not.
"Okay But Nintendo and Namco Never Use Leakbait!"
Well actually that wouldn't be true cause of SF:Grand Prix being an Industry Hoax which tricked everyone and Namco putting out Leakbait for Tekken 7 Why does Namco Matter? It proves both companies can use Leakbait and will if the Circumstances call for it and with Leakers leaking what was basically the entire Base Roster for Smash Ultimate I can see a timeline where they say "You know what? they leaked the entire roster let's start using leakbait".
Also interesting note before we move on, and this may just be my bias but the Namco tweet says something like "Which is Why Akuma, Neese, Noctis nor Negan ever got leaked" Who's one character off of the Square list that hasn't gotten even a Single leak besides an insider within NoA itself? Geno. I mean after the Square Seven came out btw not before cause of course there were "Leaks" for Geno. It likely doesn't mean anything but it's funny non-the-less.
So they Can and Will Leakbait if under the right Circumstances and the Square Seven could be called into questioning as what if it is indeed Leakbait? it
fits under the criteria for it.
I can't really go against much of what Verge has said about the Square rep except for obviously it not being the first one revealed, we all saw what happened and that maybe it isn't Erdrick but instead Geno. Verge seems to be very Careful about what he puts out there on much of his Smash News but I can still argue for why somethings seem fishy around here.
First off there is so much conflicting information between Leakers and people in general, People first thought that Erdrick must have been his Taller Design
and to be revealed first, that didn't happen so people were thinking he'd obviously be the second character.
Even when the Brave leak came out and it was suggested to be a Short Zoner character people changed their views and thought that Erdrick must be his Chibi Design and use a lot of Magic and such, but Tansut said that Erdrick would come with his Fem Alt yet She doesn't have a Chibi Design so they'd just make a brand-new design for her right on the spot? Not a Single Character in the entire roster to date has had that privilege and with Square being super
stingy I don't think they'd have THAT much cooperation.
Every character that has had an Alt their Alt already previously existed Wire-Frame Mac existed and didn't need a brand new design,Over-alls Wario already Existed, Fem Robin already Existed, Fem Corrin Already Existed and all of them could fit with the Characters without needing to go out of the way to fit
the model by making a new design.
Just remembered the two 5Chan leaks claimed that Alucia and Fem Erdrick will be Alts for Erdrick which again doesn't make sense cause If Namco who is making the game only allows Pac-Man to have colors change on his gloves & Shoes only what makes you think the company who only gave Sakurai One Character, One Stage, Two Songs and Four Spirits (Including the two Fighter Spirits) would make a brand new design for Sakurai to use? that just seems like nonsense.
"Okay but that's the only thing that doesn't add up!"
Nope there's even more, Most Insiders are saying that Erdrick will be the Second or at most Third DLC Character meanwhile a few weeks ago or so Tansut said that Erdrick just started Development so he wouldn't be revealed for awhile which seems to suggest that he'd be the 4th/5th character so people are even conflicted about the release schedule.
Let's even examine the list itself, Having three DQ reps is a very weird thing. You don't see KH getting three characters nor even two, You don't even see
Lara Croft on the list, nor 2B, Edea, Etc. Yet there's three whole DQ Reps it's very weird sure you can make an argument for it being cause there's a
different Protag every game but Slime isn't really needed to be in the List cause it's in DQ3 and DQ11 yet it's still there, I can't really put my finger
on it but it's Strange and maybe they're putting multiple DQ reps out there cause it's not DQ or maybe it's actually Slime.
Meanwhile remember when I said that the Square list might be Leakbait? well Verge also said Geno is Leakbait if the list was sent out by Square and they
said Geno is Leakbait wouldn't it make sense if it's the reverse and the List is Leakbait but Geno is not? I think that would make more sense than them being completely honest especially with all these inconsistencies. We even have an actual NoA insider who has not been wrong a single time in the past say that there's been talk about Geno, I can't Imagine there would be talk of Geno outside of Smash be it a Mii Costume or an actual Playable Character.
Geno wouldn't even make sense to be Leakbait as Companies use Leakbait in order to lower people's expectations only to reveal something people have been wanting, that would be the reverse for this situation. They use Geno, somebody people have been wanting for a Decade+ as Leakbait only to reveal Erdrick who is very Niche outside of Japan and to be added in Smash partly to advertise DQ to the West it wouldn't make sense for this to be the case in fact it would make sense for it to be the Reverse.
Yes while Both are Very Niche Geno still has worldwide appeal and a fanbase everywhere while Erdrick's fanbase mainly comes from one part of the world, Japan. Erdrick does have fans in America/Europe/UK but the majority of his and DQ's fanbase comes from Japan while it's pretty evenly spread across the world with Geno.
I think in the end the reverse of this situation would make more sense and they're just lying about Geno being Leakbait as it doesn't fit how Leakbait is usually done with the more popular and rewarding outcome usually being the one they hide under the veil of Leakbait.
"Okay fine but What does Geno have that Erdrick doesn't?"
Three Words: In-Game Evidence. With Piranha Plant joining so too did a ton of SMRPG references being Smilax in the Palutena guidence, Piranha Plant's Classic Mode being a SMRPG reference, even earlier with Geno & Mallow being Spirits, one of the new Bowser themes having a bit from SMRPG, Etc.
Even outside of Ultimate there's also a SMRPG Reference in Yoshi's Crafted World and also The Tweet by Nintendo, The Trivia Question with Smash being referenced in the beginning of the game, the Smash 4 Mii Costume, the Super Mario Kun Story, Etc. which is a very big contrast to a Decade ago when Nintendo refused to even mention SMRPG.
I'm not claiming to say that this means Geno will be in Smash but it at least shows that Nintendo realizes SMRPG has a very big and Strong cult following
inside and outside of Smash.
So Nintendo Knows but does Sakurai? he without a shadow of a doubt knows of Geno's Popularity as he stated he added the Geno Mii Costume cause of his Popularity Also cause he wanted Geno in Brawl and likely wanted him in Sm4sh but it didn't pan out within Smash 4. He Saw the move-set potential within Geno and wanted him so he is likely a fan of his. this isn't speculation you can specifically see him State he wanted Geno here.
Even Square-Enix knows Geno is Popular cause they put Geno on the list instead of some huge and Iconic Character like Lara Croft/They "leaked" Geno over Lara that proves that at the very least they know Geno is popular and heavily requested for Smash.
So All Parties know Geno is Popular and Polar's NoA contact has heard Geno mumblings around NoA. With Every Party Knowing of his Popularity. Sakurai wanting him for a Decade at this point plus Sakurai adding Fan Favorites I think Nintendo can do Sakurai a Solid and add Geno unless something happens and Square begins to throw a tantrum I see why not. Every Party involved know Geno is Popular, Geno fits within Sakurai's choice of adding fan favorites this time around and Sakurai even wanted Geno and he doesn't seem to be the kind of person who would give up easily. Those things are massive points towards Geno.
"Okay but Geno doesn't fit as DLC"
I disagree with that, From what I've gathered most people seem to think that Nintendo will add Characters that appeal to people who might not have bought Smash yet but here's the thing in my opinion it makes more sense for Nintendo to focus on adding Fan Favorites or Characters that will appeal to both audiences/a Mix of both.
As if you focus on people who haven't bought Smash yet there's no guarantee that those people will buy Smash + the Fighter's Pass as that would be
75 Dollars right there. Some might not even HAVE a Switch so they would have to buy a 300$ Console + a 60$ game + a 25$ DLC Season that rounds up to 375$ just for one game and DLC I heavily doubt People would do that Meanwhile if you do a blend of both or focus on your core audience you'd have GUARANTEED Sales instead of "Let's hope they buy our stuff and hope our core audience like the DLC" I for one will likely skip the DLC if Geno/Banjo aren't in so I'm sure some are like that for their characters.
Your entire Core Audience being guaranteed to buy the DLC or Appealing to people who might not have bought Smash Ultimate or even a Switch, I think it would make more sense for them to do the first and mix in a few DLC characters that also appeal to other fanbases, Geno would appeal to your core audience.
Even then let's say Sakurai did in fact push for Geno in Base Game they could be withholding Geno for DLC cause of Square prioritizing Money more than
playing Nice.
Even Brave's Stats fit Geno with the apparent Short Zoner playstyle, The Sliding, The Wide Shield Size, Etc. Brave just feels like Geno to me, it feels like
what Geno would feel like and play like. Short Zoner fits Geno's Description perfectly with him being slightly shorter than Mario being accurate to Geno's
size and Geno obviously being a Zoner. The sliding cause Geno is Wooden and Wood has a lot of traction. The Wide Shield Size being cause maybe Geno's Cape is flowing outwards making the shield size bigger.
While DQ isn't as complicated as we initially thought Nintendo and Sakurai already have the rights to Geno and supposedly SMRPG so why go out and go through Square-enix and Toriyama when you have a Fan Favorite Character right there one that people have been requesting since Brawl at the latest! People have been wanting Geno for a Decade and they have the right to Geno and Super Mario RPG so why not use them? Not even Nintendo is that dumb. They HAVE to know what they have right in front of them and how important Geno is to a decent size of the Smash fanbase. It is a fact at this point that they have the rights to SMRPG for Smash Use.
In-Game evidence, Reputable NoA contacts saying Geno, All Parties knowing Geno is Popular, References inside and outside of Smash Ultimate, Geno fitting in as DLC, Brave's Stats, They already have the Rights, Etc. There ARE things going for Geno.
"Okay but the Brave Codename doesn't fit Geno" That's the thing! Codenames shouldn't be obvious, they're supposed to loosely tie into the character
and to not be super obvious at first glace but with hindsight or the more you think about other options it starts to make sense, Brave's relation to Erdrick
is too obvious and it doesn't really hide the character's identity well which a good codename should. I really do think it's too obvious, Maybe it is
Erdrick but something seems weird about it.
I think both Geno and Erdrick could make sense for being Brave and I'm not even Saying Erdrick isn't Brave but it's kind of weird, I think we need to look
outside of the box as the saying goes for this one. Maybe we're putting too much emphasis on the Codename and not enough emphasis on the Data sure things could always change but it's more solid than trying to make sense of the Codename when it's there to throw you off of who it's going to be in the first place.
The Data can change but it's entire playstyle cannot change for either it's super early into development or something went terribly wrong, The Apparent
Playstyle suggests it to be a Zoner which fits with Geno or other characters, not so much Erdrick. the entire playstyle did not change for Piranha Plant
nor did it likely change for Joker so unless we can prove otherwise I think it's safe to guess maybe it will change but nothing drastic enough for it to
change the Character's entire archetype.
I simply think we're looking at it from the wrong angle, Maybe Brave really is Geno.
People heavily underestimate Geno and basically act like he's deconfirmed when that's simply not the case in fact I would go so far as to say he's
the second most likely Square rep right behind Erdrick himself. Geno simply has stuff going for him that other characters do not and the information coming out for Erdrick contradicts itself by some saying he'll be revealed next or soon, some saying he'll be revealed as one of the last DLC characters. Some saying he'll have only his fem alt and some saying his fem alt + Alucia when neither characters have Chibi Designs which Erdrick must be if the Square rep is indeed next, I don't think Square would make brand new designs for Smash as they've been very stingy in regards to the game so far. It's rather unlikely. I think Something is definitely up and if you add in all of the Contradictions Erdrick seems suspicious at the very least.
Nintendo already has the rights to the character and the rights to use SMRPG stuff within Smash not even Nintendo is stupid enough to not do anything with them, they already Know Geno is popular and highly requested they wouldn't just let him go unused they'd at least give us the Mii costume if not make him playable not to mention the composer from SMRPG is on board for Smash. Simply put Geno is without a doubt the easiest Square rep to get as everything is laid out right in-front of them they just have to get the go ahead by Square. Every party involved know that Geno is popular so they wouldn't just leave him as a Spirit and do nothing at least they'd give us the Mii Costume if not a Character so I do not think this is all that's left for Geno, I think something is coming I just don't know what.
Geno may not have anything to advertise but he and Super Mario RPG is important to Nintendo and Square's history together as that was Nintendo and Square's first huge collaboration and their last big game for Nintendo before they went non-exclusive so by adding him it would be a nice way to tie up loose ends and would be a symbol of their relationship prospering.
Even everything going on with Brave seems to fit with how Geno would play, a Short Zoner is exactly how this guy would play. Geno is short like slightly
smaller than Mario which fits the height and Geno's main attacking method is using beams and bullets which would be how a Zoner plays. The Sliding even makes sense with Geno as wood has a lot of traction. The Shield Size also makes sense as it would have to be very wide yet we don't know what position the Character is in so who's to say it isn't Geno and his cape is simply flowing back making the shield size bigger, there really isn't anything debunking it nor is there anything to support that claim. If the Square rep is brave I think it might be Geno.
Geno is a unique case as he's a huge outlier for the List so we don't exactly know how likely or unlikely he really is we could be down and be depressed
thinking Geno will never get in but behind the scenes he's the frontrunner, we'd never know that cause he's in such a strange position with Smash and within
Square reps itself. He's kind of irrelevant but there's also so many symbolic reasons to add him and with such a huge fanbase Geno lives on within the
fandom's hearts so he's never really dead. at the very least we can all see that Geno will get in eventually be it the fighters pass, Misc DLC or even Smash
6. Geno is in a very weird position and we can never truly understand how likely or unlikely he really is.
Geno is a strange character as he has many things going for him and somethings not even Erdrick or Sora have yet we can't really predict how likely or
unlikely he is as he's a massive outlier for the list of Square reps, maybe he really is the frontrunner or maybe he's never been discussed we truly cannot
tell for sure all we can do is hope for the best, but with everything going on it seems mighty suspicious.
Something is definitely going on I'm telling Y'all, Geno might actually be more likely than we give him credit for yet we'll never know for sure until the
Square rep is revealed. Maybe Erdrick is indeed leakbait with all the inconsistencies surrounding him so unless Leakers get their story straight and exactly what's going on with Erdrick I'm gonna have to start assuming most of the reason they thought Erdrick was likely is cause of the Brave Datamine, There's simply too much inconsistencies to ignore. Also I have nothing against Insiders and Leakers I'm just saying people should stop taking their words as gospel, they're just as in the dark as we are only that they get information sooner and maybe we're wrong and the Square rep is actually Geno, finally.
"Why would they even Choose Geno? He's not relevant nor would he advertise anything"
Simple, Geno is a symbol of a time where Square and Nintendo were best buddies and when Square was developing games exclusively for Nintendo so Geno would be a character that would symbolize a reuniting of Square and Nintendo in a sense. Fun Fact: SMRPG was Square's last big game before leaving to develop for Playstation so it would make sense for him to bring it back around. Not to mention the fact that he's a fan favorite and they might just MIGHT want to do something nice for the fans this one time, that or Sakurai made a really good deal towards Square.
"Didn't SMRPG Flop?"
No Actually it was the 19th best selling Super Nintendo game of all time and sold 2.1M copies which outdid Kirby Super Star, Chrono Trigger, Super Street
Fighter 2, Super Metroid, Final Fantasy IV, Dragon Quest III, Super Ghouls and Goblins and even Megaman X. So no by no means did it flop. Not to mention people would've played it on the Wii and Wii U virtual Console + The SNES Classic and Emulation so by all means we know more than 2M people played SMRPG.
"Square doesn't care about the fans they'd rather put in someone who they could advertise."
Sure that is indeed the case but just cause they don't care doesn't mean Nintendo and Sakurai don't care In-Fact I would say they do care about what the fans want this time around so there's nothing saying Sakurai and Nintendo didn't strike a mutually beneficial deal with Square for Geno and that they took it. We simply don't know all of the details so there's nothing going either way, Maybe they struck a deal maybe they didn't.
With all this said and done I want to clarify something, I do not dislike DQ fans nor do I dislike DQ in general I simply want to defend my boy Geno with all my might cause he's a good character and I think he should get in, If both got in I would be more than Satisfied with that I would celebrate with DQ fans and Square fans in general as we both got what we wanted and I would be happy for you guys. So yeah if you have the misconception that I dislike DQ fans, I don't so just letting y'all know that. Cya.
I'm gonna add more to this: This is also Square's 11th best selling game and their 8th best selling franchise, and right when SMRPG came out in North America, it was the MOST rented game in NA for 14 weeks straight. If it wasn't for SMRPG, I'm pretty sure the RPG genre would have a different perspective compared to its popularity in NA today."Didn't SMRPG Flop?"
No Actually it was the 19th best selling Super Nintendo game of all time and sold 2.1M copies which outdid Kirby Super Star, Chrono Trigger, Super Street
Fighter 2, Super Metroid, Final Fantasy IV, Dragon Quest III, Super Ghouls and Goblins and even Megaman X. So no by no means did it flop. Not to mention people would've played it on the Wii and Wii U virtual Console + The SNES Classic and Emulation so by all means we know more than 2M people played SMRPG.
Final Fantasy VII is also what helped with the RPG titles, and I think I know why a lot of people sought FF7... SquareSoft being written on its game case, the same people that made SMRPG, so that's possibly one of the reasons why FF7 did so well on the market because people realized this is the same company that developed SMRPG, so they tried FF7 out and it become a success. The late '90s were really a good time for the gaming market.
