So one other point that I wanted to point out before in my list of reasons I think Geno has less of a chance is that he didn't make the base roster. Ridley made it, K. Rool made it, but not Geno or any other big character from back in the Melee/Brawl days.
Now you may argue that '3rd parties are more difficult to deal with and are more likely for DLC' and while this is true for certain companies, I give you all the 3rd party that made it into the base roster:
,
,
,
,
,
,
. Sure, there is reasoning behind all of them, but remember that the reasoning Sakurai gave for Simon is that he 'placed high in the Ballot.' As we know from mock polls going on during that time, there is no chance that Simon placed extremely high in the polls and whether or not
was actually a winner or previously planned and had lots of votes so they picked her is irrelevant here because we saw the K. Rool campaigns and we know who was likely in the top ten, yet only Simon is mentioned as being a Ballot pick? This leads me to believe that it wasn't just the ballot placing but also company negotiations, and we know that Konami loves to play game with Sakurai when it comes to Smash.
While this would seemingly lead towards Geno being potential DLC, this added in with my previous points really makes it seem like Geno's chances are slim to none and we will have to be happy with our Spirit.
I was gonna post all this on Christmas Day but I decided to just relax and do much of nothing, and low and behold the man, the myth, the legend who should REALLY get a Golden Sun-themed intro for his videos...@Billybae10K drops his next Rate Their Chances vid and tackles both BWD and Geno. I'll link it here, but honestly it's just more of what I had said, but I'm glad I'm not the only one who is paying attention to the overwhelming signs of Geno's chances falling off dramatically. My only issue with
@Billybae10K is that he keeps addressing Sora as a 'Square Rep' when it's been proven time and again that he's a Disney Rep. Sure, they have to get Nomura's blessing, but Sakurai and Nomura are buds so that's not very difficult. It's just like a Trademark, essentially: Disney didn't make him, but they 100% own him and everything Kingdom Hearts.
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Now comes the part where I will address counter points, because I feel it's rude to just ignore points people make against your arguments, as well as it making you a weak debater. This first one is more of a snarky response though....
Hmm, it's almost like I address this already...I'm just teasing, but I was referring to this interview when I mentioned Sakurai did have some involvement with Spirits. I guess I'm more to blame for not including a link, but the interview had been out for a while so I assumed everyone knew what I was referring to.
This is points towards Geno being just a Spirit if you ask me: Mario has incarnations like Gold Mario and Metal Mario and Cat Mario, etc etc. These are all separate variations of Mario, and if you believe the theory that all the Smash variations of our favorite characters are not the versions from their original series but more like spin-off versions like in the countless Sports games, then this helps Geno because there is only one version of Geno, thus the Smash playable Geno would be a different Geno. If you don't believe it and believe that the Smash fighters are the original characters, then Geno has no chance.
Sure, but not all Spirit Battles are equal in terms of effort put behind them. Some are cute, some are '...yeah, I guess I can see it', and some are 'Wow, they really put some effort into this one!' I feel like most of the Legendary Spirits probably fall under that last one, and Geno is no exception.
Uhh...Square Enix =/= Atlus or Sega? Just because Square only lets Sakurai have two versions of Cloud for Spirits doesn't mean EVERY company will be like that. Also there already are 3rd party Spirits for characters that likely will never make it, like the Rabbids and Sonic characters, and none of those seem to be hinting at anyone. In fact, if we had datamined a Persona Spirit before the Joker reveal, we would barely be having this discussion, not at all if that Spirit was Joker.
Ridley and King K. Rool are both first party, so they both had less hurdles to jump to get into Smash. Also, before someone brings up Simon and Richter, I will again mention Konami plays nicer with their IPs and characters for Smash than Square ever will in their lifetime as a company.
Woof, I never noticed that my first read-through, but he does kinda lump them all together, doesn't he?
This is slightly misleading: Fighter Spirits are nothing but trophies/stickers and literally do nothing, but you can also win functional Spirits through Classic Mode as well. Just because a playable fighter has a Spirit that does nothing doesn't mean that Spirits that do something don't deconfirm characters.
With all this addressed, I would like to point out three interesting things I have found.
1. Geno and Mallow are listed as Mario Spirits, not falling under the category 'Other' despite being Square characters. I get that they are essentially Mario characters to us, but the fact that Nintendo considers them Mario characters too is interesting to say the least...either that or anyone who breathes Mario's air is considered a Mario character.
2. Petey Piranha is a Spirit, twice: he upgrades from Nipper Plant and also has a Super Strikers Spirit, and we all know he is part of Piranha Plant's FS. Of course this checks out with the Super Sonic Spirit as well, I just thought this was an interesting tidbit.
3. Possibly the most important, we must remember that for the DLC characters we have seen so far, they have at least no Spirits of themselves (Piranha Plant) and at most no Spirits from their entire franchise (Joker). Of course things can change, but if the next character reveal either doesn't have a Spirit of themselves OR a Spirit from their franchise at all, I can confidently say we should apply the 'third time's the charm' adage and figure that is a telling sign of who is DLC and who isn't. It feels like we are once again in a state where the next reveal tells all.