Alright, after everything
Fatmanonice
said, I feel really confident about Geno coming. Let's use the process of elimination method: We know that there were only 3 Square Enix characters who were on the table, and they were from the compiled list of names Vergeben was told, meaning we can rule out all the SE characters who weren't on the list, most notably Neku, Lightning, Noctis, Chocobo, and any DQ character that isn't Erdrick, Slime, or Luminary. The other 4 characters on the list were water cooler gossip (lol). One of the 3 SE characters was rejected by Square Enix, and was described by
Fatmanonice
as "if you have been following the thread, you will have a good idea who the cut character is." Vergeben was told that Sora is not in the game, so the rejected character is most likely Sora, so we can rule him out. One of the two remaining characters is leak bait, and the other 4 SE characters on the list were water cooler gossip. Vergeben was told to not take Geno too seriously. I'm pretty sure if he was mentioned once and told to not be taken seriously, he would be neither leak bait nor water cooler gossip. Geno is also likely not the rejected character, because the creators of Super Mario RPG don't work at Square Enix anymore. This means that Sephiroth, Crono, and the DQ characters are all either leak bait or water cooler gossip. They were mentioned numerous times, more so than Geno. To recap: Geno is likely NOT the rejected character, he is NOT the leak bait character, and he is likely NOT a water cooler gossip character. I am really confident that Geno has beaten his Square Enix competition, and Sakurai and Nintendo already have the rights to him. I think this is his time