Thank you al!! Glad all my work didn't get lost in the shuffle haha.
So given this information, if its safe to speculate, I think we have to break it down based on the following criteria, given the seven characters we have and we know three of them could potentially be legit. Let's also keep somethings in mind:
- Vergeben knew about an SE Rep as far back as August or September, before DLC was announced/confirmed. (This could be a case that DLC was in development before they told the public. )
- PolarPanda's source said they've heard rumors about Geno in Nintendo (NoA presumably, but could like to NoJ as well)
- The same source also saying NoJ picked DLC and that no one knows whose on the list
- Nintendo was talking about Geno as early as 2015 (referring to that post from the artist)
- Vergeben said the rep was not Sora.
- Certain insiders, highlighting Hitagi, have already been Ninten-ninja'd.
- According to Fatmanonice, 1 is real. 1 is leak bait, and 1 is eliminated, only 3 are legitimate.
I want to consider these hypotheticals for each chracter:
- Who was turned down? How early? And since we don't know why, what could the reason be?
- Why would that shock the creators? Why would the creators fight for that characters inclusion?
- Was this character publicly eliminated?
Hypothetically let's go over each. I'd like to start with the names Vergeben heard the most.
Sephiroth
I think to turn down Sephiroth really quickly COULD be shocking purely because he's a villain, arguably the most famous FF one, and he's from Final Fantasy. Although I don't see a reason for Square to turn him down other than because they already have an FF character. Maybe Nintendo didn't want another one to prevent Smash from being a FF party. I think Ken is a special case for Ryu because he's an echo. Maybe Square wanted a different FF character and for the same reason Nintendo may not have wanted that. However, I don't see a reason why his creators would rally for him. They already have a rep in Cloud. Would his inclusion or lack therof REALLY warrant a fight? He could've been shot down to bring in other SE franchises instead as a potential rep, thus they didn't want to budge on that. They may have wanted more exposure. I could see Sephiroth being turned down very early for that reason alone.
However, I don't think he's one of our three simply because I don't see why his creators would put up a fight for him. Or really why that would shock them to the point of fighting for him. He potentially might have made it to negotiations, but I don't see him as the confirmed character.
Erdrick/Luminary
I honestly find it hard to see Square turning down a DQ character. But that's exactly why their rejection could be so shocking. I could see Armor Project and Bird Studio who are partial creators, be shocked that one of the most legendary franchises ever, especially in Japanese history be turned down by Square who is their publisher. How could they not want a DQ rep in Smash?? I could see them, in that shock, try to band together and rally and change Square's mind, until ultimately, the matter was dropped. I cant fathom a good reason why Square would do that. Perhaps, they didn't want to negotiate with IP holders and rightsholders and split profits (that are already being split with Nintendo) up to 5 or 6 ways. (Bird Studio, Armor Project, Square, Nintendo, the composer, etc all the previous reasons we mentioned it would be difficult.) Perhaps Square wanted to keep a good relationship with Nintendo, and wanted for focus on properties that are ONLY Square (like Final Fantasy.) This could also be a reason why Square was hard to deal with when it came to Spirits. Thy may not want to have contacted a lot of rightsholders for IP permission for basic character design PNGs
I see DQ being one of our three.
Crono
I think turning down Crono could do with relevancy? Sakurai may not care, but what about NoJ and Square? You could argue that Crono is in one of the best RPGs ever, but he hasn't had a game since. And his situation is uniquely different from Geno because no one was really rallying for Crono. I don't see his rejection coming as a huge shock (other than, say, pride) because of this, but maybe the creator was trying to introduce a new Crono game through Smash (someone mentioned his tweet here about him working on a Secret Project. Could it be..?) and thus wanted to familiarize new players and new generations with him similar to FE. This could be a reason to fight for the character. Like I stated, perhaps Square wanted to go with someone more recognizeable.
I was gonna say I see him as one of our three, but not really? He's likely cuz Verge has heard him the most, so there could be something going on behind the scenes we don't know about, but he's got as much going for him potential wise as against him. He's kind of in the same boat as Sephiroth to me. I don't see his rejection being incredibly shocking, but I could see why he was fought for.
Sora
I think flat out rejecting Sora would be a huge shock. I can see Yoko Shimomura and Tetsuya Nomura rallying hard for his inclusion in Smash. He's pretty much a perfect fit. He's popular, unique enough, and would have a vastly different move set and several games to build a move set from. However, he's partially (or wholly) owned by Disney and that would mean MONEY. I think Disney would definitely want in on that deal and want a lot of those profits and I think maybe Square did not want to share those. As theorized earlier, perhaps they wanted to stick to franchises created and owned solely by Square. Perhaps Sora wouldn't make sense without Goofy and/or Donald appearing in anyway or any Disney characters or items for that matter. Lets also remember Sora's Keyblade in it's most recognizeable form, has a Mickey keychain. That's copyright RIGHT THERE. You would HAVE to pay Disney for that. Of course you could just use another Keyblade. Also Vergeben publicly stated Sora wasn't in. Fatman said the character that was rejected was done quite publicly. His further posts imply that Sora may be this character: "The rejected one is out there if you've been following".
I see Sora as one of our three, but not in the confirmed, or leakbait. I think he's out of the running. (Which sucked to say because I love Sora.)
Geno
I think rejecting Geno would be shocking to us the fans and probably Nintendo. However I don't see it as THAT much of a shock to Nintendo. It could be shocking because "we secured a Mii Costume last game, why is it difficult to include him now?? and fans really want him in! You're gonna face backlash if you don't let us put him in" but again, he is an old character who hasn't appeared in over 10 years. I could see how Square wouldn't see a lot of interest in letting him in if they have no plans to revitalize the character and continue working with Nintendo for him. I also think his rejection could stem from Square's interest in current, newer franchises. But I could see it being shocking enough, especially to the creators, to want to fight for him. And honestly, they'd be fighting for US. The fans. However, let's also consider that Geno's image rights do appear as a spirit. Like Sakurai said, he has to get permission from all the IP holders in order to make Smash. He secured permission for Geno. This could've been one of the two characters that went to negotiations, with Square deciding on a different fighter but allowing Nintendo image rights for Geno as well. However, I think it would be bad business not to at least take note of Geno's popularity. I see no reason why Square wouldn't at least consider Geno, he is purely a Nintendo-Square property, meaning profits would only be split both ways, like Cloud. He would be the easiest to implement and smoothest to include as all the creators of Geno work for Nintendo. If they rejected Sora for Disney/Money reasons and/or DQ for the same money reasons, those cons are gone with Geno, and they'd make arguably the same amount of money if not more since they wouldn't have to split it, when people buy the DLC. He's incredibly popular with fans out here and in Japan and quite often those popular characters make it in, this could foster a stronger partnership with Nintendo and could lead to the development of new properties/games based on his popularity. Why fight to try to get gamers to attach to existing properties (characters being added as potential ads like DQ and Crono) when you can create something new based on popularity that is already there? It's no less historic if they pick Geno, so Idk, this one is a very tricky one. Geno could go both ways in extremes. Additionally, Geno was quite publicy rejected by Xenother, who then took it back and changed his stance to "not likely" and Verge said "not to take Geno too seriously". Adversely, let's remember PolarPanda's source with the Geno rumors. Could they have been rumors around the time of negotiations with Square? After? That is a very important variable we dont know.
I definitely think Geno is one of our three. Either as leak-bait, or our fighter.
Slime
I mean. I could see Square flat out rejecting Slime. I could see the creators shock because for all the reasons I listed in DQ. And thats why they fight for him.
But...no. I just. I don't see it yall sorry lol.
So I think it's likely that Sora is probably our rejected character. Sora and DQ both have the shock power, but Sora was publicly cut by Verge.
The other two names could be DQ, Geno, Seph or Crono.
My personal thinking is that the three names are Sora, Geno, and Erdrick.
Anyway what yall think?