So I was having some conversations with a friend and our discussion brought something interesting to light.
So the first part of the conversation was whether or not Steve was #78 and planned for E3 or #79 or later and was flat-out pushed up in line due to circumstances. By the end of our conversation, we concluded that Steve could never have been anything but #79. The information just adds up to it being that way.
- Sakurai stated in January with Byleth that all the characters had been negotiated for already, which means they were negotiated for sometime in 2019, likely in September. This means Steve was already chosen to be a character in 2019.
- Sakurai has stated himself that they work on three characters at a time. This would mean that Min-Min would have started development in late/Q3 2019 in the Terry/Byleth/Min-Min block. This would mean by the time January hit (since Byleth was done in November, and Min-Min was originally aimed for April) we would already have spent time in the Min-Min/77/78 block. However, Sakurai states that Steve didn't start development until April, which conflicts with the 'three at a time' format they have.
- As we know, since development for Steve started in April, at a time of difficult programming and regulations, Steve would never have been ready in time for E3.
- Min-Min getting pushed back due a WOMBOCOMBO of Codroid-19, programming issues with her, sorting out character priority for the rest of the pass, and programming issues with Steve explains the huge delay for both Min-Min and Steve being released.
- Since Steve was already negotiated for in 2019, it was likely part of the contract to have his reveal and breakdown timed around MineCon. This isn't something you can simply reschedule for in an age of viruses and cancellations: it's much more likely Steve was always meant to be ready for a big MineCon showing, but since Sakurai foresaw how difficult he would be to program and how new regulations would hinder their work efficiency, it was decided Steve would be pushed to #77 to make sure he was ready in time for MineCon.
So now that it's perfectly clear that Steve was bumped up from #79 to #77, that would mean that up until recently we were in the Min-Min/Steve/new 78 block now. So the big question is, who got moved to #78? Well, I know I say this all the time, but I REALLY think it's Geno. Why is that? Well, let's look at the evidence.
- The odds of us getting more Nintendo news in general this November is very high, mostly because Nintendo has made it past precedent to have something. Add in Nintendo saying that October had the last Partner Showcase of the year and yet we have all this time left for more announcements and the Direct Archive keeps updating like crazy point and it feels like Nintendo has at least a couple more things to hit us with before they let the Christmas Madness come through.
- We had an explosion of rumors about Geno in August of 2019. Rumors of Chief popped up around December of 2019, which we now know was more about Steve when it came to another Microsoft rep but the community at large had written off Steve due to Banjo's inclusion and just assumed it had to be Chief.
- CacoMallow came out in November of 2019, and we are three days away from it's one-year anniversary. They gotta show us those costumes eventually, and they really can't hold onto them as a secret for too much longer.
- We got those sudden teases about Geno from Jeff Grubb and more importantly Imran Khan who didn't talk about SMRPG nearly as much as Grubb.
- Square has been notorious for being picky and kinda like a fussy backseat developer when it comes to their IPs. Square also has a plethora of characters people love and is undoubtedly getting more characters in Ultimate considering Sakurai has shown a pattern to work with companies he has worked with in the past. Thus, it would make sense that if a Square character was being worked on and Codroid-19 hit hard, the new regulations would practically halt any work done on said Square character since they are the kind of company to insist on being there for nearly every step of the way.
- So, interestingly enough, the Mario Characters Only Tournament for Ultimate (which oddly enough, has been done before) was delayed in addition to a bunch of other Mario content. Since the 35th Anniversary level in SMM2 was originally scheduled for sometime in April, we can likely assume that this tournament was also heavily delayed, which means it very well could have lined up with a fighter from E3.
Despite being delayed once, they announced it in September that it was slated for 'Later In The Year' which we then found out was November/December. Now think about this: if the tournament wasn't tied to a fighter, why didn't they just drop it that month, a week or two later in September, or even October? Why wait so long, yet let us know so far in advance? You may point out that other Mario content was delayed for even later, well into 2021, but then why wasn't the tournament delayed for about as long? Could it be that it matches up with some sort of announcement? It seems likes it's awfully important for some reason...
- If you are under the impression that this tournament is meant to match up with a fighter, then there is something else to consider: If the MARIO tournament matches up with a fighter announcement, and this year was the 35th MARIO anniversary with tons of MARIO content, it would make sense for that character to be from the MARIO franchise, right? However, a first party just doesn't add up.
See, first off we already have a first party in Min-Min, not that we can't get another but the big names being talked about right now are third party and you still have a pass to sell to hardcore fans. You may say that Waluigi fits the bill, but first off the Wah really isn't geared up to be a full release for a Fighter's Pass character...and secondly, there would be no reason for such a delay for a first party choice. This would all be done in-house, with stressed but easier communication with Nintendo, and most likely a much simpler character to design. There would still be no need to delay the tournament THIS far out for just Waluigi...but third parties are much more difficult to communicate on in these conditions, and there is only one viable third party Mario character, and his own is rather picky...
Yeah, as you can see, much like everything else recently this bodes well for Geno.