This is pessimistic thinking, tied to the fact that Geno is rather obscure.
Square has already gotten their two biggest franchises in the game and Disney couldn't play ball to get their fourth biggest. Notice I said 4th biggest for Kingdom Hearts, because according to sales, Tomb Raider is their 3rd biggest...despite them only acquiring it in 2010 and the first in the reboot being the only one that was insanely successful with the other two doing roughly the same as the earlier titles.
That said, you guys underestimate fan demand and Sakurai's pull in negotiation. Like, REALLY underestimate.
You remember when Castlevania looked like it was doomed, and yet here we are with Simon, Richter, and a crap ton of Castlevania content ever since launch? Konami wouldn't work with Sakurai, right guys? They are a horrible company who only does horrible things with their IPs, right guys?
Remember when Banjo & Kazooie could never come to Smash because Microsoft owned them? Nintendo would never work with a direct competitor, right guys? That franchise is too irrelevant and dead for Microsoft to ever agree to them over Chief or Steve, right guys?
I think you guys have forgotten something very important and apparent:
WE ARE TALKING ABOUT SUPER SMASH BROS. ULTIMATE!
You know, the latest and greatest game in the franchise that celebrates video game history? The one on the Switch, Nintendo's comeback system? The game that somehow perfectly appeals to both casuals and competitive players? The game that has sold over 20 million copies and outsold
ing Street Fighter II? The game that has Nintendo fans **** for more news about it in every Nintendo presentation even mere days after they just revealed a new character? The game that has not only crosses over with all the Nintendo IPs people love, but made the effort to bring back all the missing character the fanbase loves as well as finally bring in a horde of fan picks that regularly broke the internet and made fans lose their ****? The game that crosses Nintedo IPs over with the likes of Metal Gear Solid, Sonic The Hedgehog, Megaman, PAC-MAN, Street Fighter, Final Fantasy, Bayonetta, Castlevania, Persona 5, Dragon Quest, Banjo-Kazooie, Fatal Fury and now most recently ****ING MINECRAFT? The fact that it crosses over with SO MANY OTHER IPs when you consider Assist Trophies, Mii Costumes, Spirits, Items, Icons, Bosses and Stage Cameos? The game that developers of all sorts are foaming at the mouth for a chance to have their IPs in even as just a Spirit or Mii Costume?
Now imagine you are any gaming developer who has been contacted by Nintendo/Sakurai and his team and they want to negotiate for a character you own to get into Smash. First of all, that is an absolute YES no matter who you are: this is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to have your franchise be put into the video game history video game that everyone can't get enough of, and it can get a bunch of people who have never even heard of your game to go buy it and play it as well as making you money whenever they buy the character. It's just a good deal through and through.
Now imagine that Nintendo/Sakurai and his crew show up and you suggest characters and franchises in an upbeat tizzy, but Sakurai stops you and says he wants one of your characters from a franchise that is essentially dead because they fans REALLY love that character and that franchise even though you have done nothing with it for decades. Do you suddenly say no? Do you try too hard to push for a bigger franchise? Or you do settle for what the man came for, knowing that this is still a huge win for you, even if it wasn't exactly what you had in mind?
Now place this into Square's shoes, who have already been through this song and dance twice and got their two biggest cash cows into the game already. What else can you really promote? They tried for another one, but a big American company owns him more than you do and it didn't pan out, and here he is asking for a character that you will never use again yourselves but you also share the money with no one else but Nintendo. Do you really say no? Especially when the last time you tried with with your biggest franchise, Sakurai got who he came for anyway?
Yeah no, you don't. You pick and choose your battles, and this one is a win up until you make it so negotiations fail.
...
Come to think of it, Sakurai essentially told Square that 'it had to be Cloud', and he essentially said the same for Lloyd and he acknowledged our love for Geno with the most flashy Mii Costume announcement Smash 4 had and said he wants him to be in the game...also, Steve/Alex were the #7 most voted for character in the Mega Smash Poll and they got in as Challenger Pack 7...and Geno was #2 and we are still in Fighter's Pass 2...
OMG GUYS IT ALL ADDS UP! EVERYTHING IS COMING UP FOR GOOD TIMES AHEAD IN SAKURAI'S ULTIMATE WILD RIDE! GENOVEMBER LET'S GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO~!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!